Politics Thread

**GoMuskies** · 10-14-2024, 10:30 AM

Okay, time to refresh on some election odds now that we're two weeks out (courtesty of betonline.ag):

President:
Trump -140
Harris +120

This is the only one I've really been watching regularly. Harris was favored for about a month until the last week or so. Trump has been slowly edging in front the last 7-10 days. But this could obviously easily slide back in the other direction.

Control of the House:

Democrats -140
Republicans +110

If Trump wins the Presidency, this would probably be a good thing.

Senate:

Michigan
Slotkin -375
Rogers +300

Ohio
Brown -115
Moreno -115

Pennsylvania
Casey -500
McCormick +350

Wisconsin
Baldwin -350
Hovde +275

Arizona
Gallego -600
Lake +400

Montana
Sheehy -400
Tester +300

Nevada
Rosen -750
Brown +500

Nebraska
Fischer -325
Osborn +250

Senate Control
Republicans -350
Democrats +275

If Trump wins, I'd prefer Republicans to have Senate control, because I think one positive of a Trump presidency is the judges he is able to appoint, and Republican Senate control means most of his judges will be confirmed. Good board for Republicans this year with WV and MT likely to flip. Ohio could go, too. Nebraska could be a surprising wildcard. As mentioned before, I wish Dems and Republicans could work out a deal where Tester got to take Montana while Hogan got to win Maryland, but that's unfortunately now how this works.

**xubrew** · 10-14-2024, 10:50 AM

Originally Posted by GoMuskies

Okay, time to refresh on some election odds now that we're two weeks out (courtesty of betonline.ag):

President:
Trump -140
Harris +120

This is the only one I've really been watching regularly. Harris was favored for about a month until the last week or so. Trump has been slowly edging in front the last 7-10 days. But this could obviously easily slide back in the other direction.

Control of the House:

Democrats -140
Republicans +110

If Trump wins the Presidency, this would probably be a good thing.

Senate:

Michigan
Slotkin -375
Rogers +300

Ohio
Brown -115
Moreno -115

Pennsylvania
Casey -500
McCormick +350

Wisconsin
Baldwin -350
Hovde +275

Arizona
Gallego -600
Lake +400

Montana
Sheehy -400
Tester +300

Nevada
Rosen -750
Brown +500

Nebraska
Fischer -325
Osborn +250

Senate Control
Republicans -350
Democrats +275

If Trump wins, I'd prefer Republicans to have Senate control, because I think one positive of a Trump presidency is the judges he is able to appoint, and Republican Senate control means most of his judges will be confirmed. Good board for Republicans this year with WV and MT likely to flip. Ohio could go, too. Nebraska could be a surprising wildcard. As mentioned before, I wish Dems and Republicans could work out a deal where Tester got to take Montana while Hogan got to win Maryland, but that's unfortunately now how this works.

I think you're an attorney, so you probably have a better perception of this than I do. But, this actually concerns me. Mixing identity politics and religious influence into the judiciary makes me cringe. Considering all of Trump's legal issues I don't feel too comfortable with the idea that he'll be the one appointing judges. I'd much rather it be someone who has a little more respect for the law and who isn't influenced by a base that pushes identity politics and religion into it.

Thoughts on that??

**GoMuskies** · 10-14-2024, 10:55 AM

He basically outsourced his judge picking to the Federalist Society, and I feel like they picked well. His appointed judges held up well in the face of the 2020 election challenges. Everyone was just sure his judges were going to swing the election in his favor, but they obviously did not.

**xubrew** · 10-14-2024, 11:05 AM

Originally Posted by xubrew

Before Biden dropped out, I didn't see any way that Trump would not win the election.

Then I went to think that he'd probably win, that that Kamala had a chance.

After the debate, I thought Kamala would win, and even if she had to sweat a little bit, it would only be a little bit.

I'm now back to thinking Trump will almost assuredly win, and while Kamala may still have a bit of a chance, I think the chances of a blowout in favor of Trump are more likely than Kamala Harris winning at all.

And, yes. I seem to flipflop more than most actual politicians do.

Someone just told me that Kid Rock announced he would leave the United States if Trump lost the electoin.

If true, this is great news for the Democrats!! This could seal the deal!!

xuwillie · 10-14-2024, 12:30 PM

Originally Posted by xubrew

Someone just told me that Kid Rock announced he would leave the United States if Trump lost the electoin.

If true, this is great news for the Democrats!! This could seal the deal!!

I only wish all the "stars" who said they would leave in '16 if Trump won actually left

**xubrew** · 10-14-2024, 12:44 PM

Originally Posted by xuwillie

I only wish all the "stars" who said they would leave in '16 if Trump won actually left

Trump, as much as I can't stand him as a public official, did in fact throw the greatest banquet the White House has ever seen in its entire history when he just ordered a shit ton of fast food for Clemson's football team. Those guys LOVED IT!! And, had a lot of those stars actually left, it may have almost been worth it!

**bobbiemcgee** · 10-14-2024, 02:39 PM

trump wants to use the US Army to jail his political enemies.. Sound familiar? I guess the Jews and Catholics will be first.

**paulxu** · 10-14-2024, 02:43 PM

So they just decided to grant him immunity. Nice.

**xubrew** · 10-14-2024, 06:12 PM

Originally Posted by bobbiemcgee

trump wants to use the US Army to jail his political enemies.. Sound familiar? I guess the Jews and Catholics will be first.

His main motivation seems to be to stick it to his enemies, and his enemies consist of anyone who didn’t do an indecent or dishonest thing when he asked them to. And this is the man we are about to elect. NO ONE should be happy about that or want that to happen.