Politics Thread

[xuwillie]

Why? Look around the country and all battleground states where way off. But somehow they got AZ correct? Maybe they did but seems strange to me...

[XU 23]

In 2016 everyone said the polls were way off. They really weren't. I think if a poll gets it within three percentage points then that's about as accurate as you could reasonably expect them to be, and back in 2016 the vast majority of the polls got most of the states and most of the down ballot elections within that range.

In 2020, the polls were so far off that I can't help but wonder if they will ever be reliable again. To miss the popular vote by more than 6 points is kind of absurd. The examples quoted above are not just kind of absurd, they are beyond absurd.

In 2016 most polls, and FiveThirtyEight in particular, missed the winner, but they nailed the popular vote, all of the states they said would be decisive were decisive, and all of the states that they said would be close were close. This year, they may get Biden right (although it hasn't happened yet), but they got it right in the sense that you pick one team to win by 40 and they end up winning by 2. In the world of polling/forecasting, that's not really "getting it right."

I recall Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan being way off in 2016 in the polls. But this year, it was even worse. Not just for president, but for senate. The disturbing trend is that when they are off, they are off in favor of Democrats. ALWAYS.

[XU 87]

I recall Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan being way off in 2016 in the polls. But this year, it was even worse. Not just for president, but for senate. The disturbing trend is that when they are off, they are off in favor of Democrats. ALWAYS.

This XU 23 knows his stuff.

Do you have any thoughts on global warming?

[bobbiemcgee]

The disturbing trend is that when they are off, they are off in favor of Democrats. ALWAYS.

XU 23 knows his stuff.

The rate of voting fraud in the US is less than 0.0009%. Rudy suggesting people in phila. were out collecting 50,000 unused mail in ballots, filling them out fraudulently (how would they even have the time to do this), and dropping them off @ 4 a.m. Wednesday is preposterous. Just count all the friggin' votes.

[XU 87]

The rate of voting fraud in the US is less than 0.0009%. Rudy suggesting people in phila. were out collecting 50,000 unused mail in ballots, filling them out fraudulently (how would they even have the time to do this), and dropping them off @ 4 a.m. Wednesday is preposterous. Just count all the friggin' votes.

It's not surprising that the party who wants convicted felons, including felons who are currently in prison, to have the right to vote also has no concern about voter fraud.

There's a difference between "count every vote" and "count every legal vote".

[Mrs. Garrett]

It's not surprising that the party who wants convicted felons, including felons who are currently in prison, to have the right to vote also has no concern about voter fraud.

There's a difference between "count every vote" and "count every legal vote".

This PSA brought to you by "People from the Party of Voter Suppression"

[bobbiemcgee]

It's not surprising that the party who wants convicted felons....

I'm assuming your are referring to the 64.5% of florida voters who approved amendment 4. Guessing you will say it was just dems who voted in that 2018 election.

Do you believe Rudy?

[paulxu]

Today's comic relief:

Trump supporters chanting "Fox News Sucks." (I guess they were unhappy about Fox calling Arizona, but I'm not sure)

[ThrowDownDBrown]

Rudy fell for a Borat skit earlier this year. Why would anyone believe anything that idiot says?

[boozehound]

Rudy fell for a Borat skit earlier this year. Why would anyone believe anything that idiot says?

LOL. That guys is just ranting and raving nonsense at this point. I can't imagine anyone taking him seriously.

If a legal challenge does actually make it's way to the supreme court, I think this is where the disorganization and chaos that surrounds Trump could really backfire. They don't seem to have any systemic strategy (other than challenge everything) and they have a lot of people claiming to speak on behalf of the campaign saying a lot of crazy shit, and sometimes conflicts with crazy shit the other people are saying.