Politics Thread

[XUBob]

I’ve followed this thread for the entire time, never posted. Upfront I voted for Trump, thought Biden would win. That looks to be true, I’m ok with our process working even though my guy looks to be the loser. What bothers me the most is the division in this country between left and right. It’s been seen in the comments in this thread. It hit home for me tonight. We have a group that walks every night. (Our bubble). My sister-in-law whom I love dearly was up all night. Couldn’t sleep, worrying about a Trump win. She is a great person but has a visceral hatred for Trump. I’ve seen this too much on both sides. If it doesn’t change I’m afraid the needle won’t move. I have no answers, just one man’s opinion.

[xavierj]

I’ve followed this thread for the entire time, never posted. Upfront I voted for Trump, thought Biden would win. That looks to be true, I’m ok with our process working even though my guy looks to be the loser. What bothers me the most is the division in this country between left and right. It’s been seen in the comments in this thread. It hit home for me tonight. We have a group that walks every night. (Our bubble). My sister-in-law whom I love dearly was up all night. Couldn’t sleep, worrying about a Trump win. She is a great person but has a visceral hatred for Trump. I’ve seen this too much on both sides. If it doesn’t change I’m afraid the needle won’t move. I have no answers, just one man’s opinion.

Thanks for sharing. I feel the same way. I voted for Trump as well as I feel what he wanted to do was the best for the country but his personality is what did him in. The hatred that has come out over the past 4 years is disgusting. If we don’t start coming together as a country it’s going to be bad for our future. People need to calm down and do what’s best for everyone as a whole. You can’t expect to have everything you want. There has to be some give and take and accept the differences in opinion others have. The hate needs to end.

[bobbiemcgee]

I have no idea. But it's not exactly unheard of for one party to win the Presidential race and another to win the Senate race. Maine last night, for example.

Seems like a 'Hail Mary:

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics...ate-and-house/

[GoMuskies]

Probably is.

[bobbiemcgee]

trump sued to stop the vote in Mi - don't think Joe will contest that. whaaat?

Also looks like GA back in play.

[bigdiggins]

Thanks for sharing. I feel the same way. I voted for Trump as well as I feel what he wanted to do was the best for the country but his personality is what did him in. The hatred that has come out over the past 4 years is disgusting. If we don’t start coming together as a country it’s going to be bad for our future. People need to calm down and do what’s best for everyone as a whole. You can’t expect to have everything you want. There has to be some give and take and accept the differences in opinion others have. The hate needs to end.

I'm sure that will be the media and leftist narrative. Resist, fight, throw out bullshit for four years, but now lets get along so we can have our way and raise taxes.

[JEHARDI]

[QUOTE=xavierj;683384]Thanks for sharing. I feel the same way. I voted for Trump as well as I feel what he wanted to do was the best for the country but his personality is what did him in. The hatred that has come out over the past 4 years is disgusting. If we don’t start coming together as a country it’s going to be bad for our future. People need to calm down and do what’s best for everyone as a whole. You can’t expect to have everything you want. There has to be some give and take and accept the differences in opinion others have. The hate needs to end.[/QUOTE

Great read below and some sound advice. We all need to take a deep breath and a step back and think about how we move past our differences.
https://www.freep.com/story/sports/c...on/6102179002/

[XU 23]

Senate polls were hilariously bad.

-Collins (R) finished about -6 in the polling average and is currently +10 in her race.
-McConnel (R) finished about +9 in the polling average and he is currently at +21.
-Lindsey Graham won by 10 points in a race that was supposed to be a tossup.
-Tuberville (R) finished about +12 in the polling and is currently at +21.
-Ernst (R) finished +1.4 in the polling and is currently at +6.6
-Peters (D) finished +5.4 in the polling and is currently at +1.1
-Tillis (R) finished -2.6 in the polling and is currently at +1.8
-Daines (R) finished in a virtual tie in the polls and is currently at +10

State presidential polls were similarly off in favor of Biden, but not as bad.

Regardless, the polls were completely skewed towards Democrats once again and were completely wrong once again. Complete and total incompetence. Or corruption.

[bobbiemcgee]

perdue is @ 50.1% in GA. If he slips under 50 = runoff which would be two runoffs in Ga since that butthole Collins got kicked out.

[xubrew]

Senate polls were hilariously bad.

-Collins (R) finished about -6 in the polling average and is currently +10 in her race.
-McConnel (R) finished about +9 in the polling average and he is currently at +21.
-Lindsey Graham won by 10 points in a race that was supposed to be a tossup.
-Tuberville (R) finished about +12 in the polling and is currently at +21.
-Ernst (R) finished +1.4 in the polling and is currently at +6.6
-Peters (D) finished +5.4 in the polling and is currently at +1.1
-Tillis (R) finished -2.6 in the polling and is currently at +1.8
-Daines (R) finished in a virtual tie in the polls and is currently at +10

State presidential polls were similarly off in favor of Biden, but not as bad.

Regardless, the polls were completely skewed towards Democrats once again and were completely wrong once again. Complete and total incompetence. Or corruption.

In 2016 everyone said the polls were way off. They really weren't. I think if a poll gets it within three percentage points then that's about as accurate as you could reasonably expect them to be, and back in 2016 the vast majority of the polls got most of the states and most of the down ballot elections within that range.

In 2020, the polls were so far off that I can't help but wonder if they will ever be reliable again. To miss the popular vote by more than 6 points is kind of absurd. The examples quoted above are not just kind of absurd, they are beyond absurd.

In 2016 most polls, and FiveThirtyEight in particular, missed the winner, but they nailed the popular vote, all of the states they said would be decisive were decisive, and all of the states that they said would be close were close. This year, they may get Biden right (although it hasn't happened yet), but they got it right in the sense that you pick one team to win by 40 and they end up winning by 2. In the world of polling/forecasting, that's not really "getting it right."