Brackets and Rankings: 2024-2025

[X-band '01]

Vandy now trailing at home against Ole Miss - I still think they're in but now they'd be hanging by a thread should they lose.

I thought Pitt had a case to be in the field, but they shot themselves in the crotch with a loss at Notre Dame.

[MHettel]

Not really. My initial description was a little confusing.

It's the win probability of each opponent you've played against a bubble team. Each D1 team has a value (that's always changing). If you're playing a team like...say...Cleveland State at home, and it's determined that the win probability of a bubble team beating Cleveland State at home is 80%, you essentially get a +0.2 if you win the game, and a -0.8 if you do not. So, the actual results matter. Then they're all tallied and averaged for each team, and each team is then ranked based on that average. Some opponents will move you way up the list if you win. Others will barely move you at all.

That’s a better explanation, but the operative phrase is “it’s determined that the win probability…..”. That is the definition of a “black box”. Nobody knows what’s in that black box and they just move on to the rest of the explanation. It’s insane.

[HenryMuto]

Wake Forest loss is probably better for X than worse even though that is one of the teams X beat I dont think that win will change in value so them losing is good in the battle for the bubble if anyone the win means if they are both neck and neck you would guess they would side with the team that won even though it was at home.

TCU lost that helps since they were gaining momentum.

ND beating Pitt should almost put a nail in that coffin.

SMU losing at home to Clemson right now it be big to keep SMU from getting a quad 1 win. If they lose they would be 0-5 vs quad 1 if they win 1-4.

[HenryMuto]

Baylor not really on the bubble but a loss to 1-14 Colorado can't hurt. Maybe they go on a losing streak.

[HenryMuto]

SMU loses that is a big one

[profson]

Well, the SMU result is good because if they had won it would have been a big boost for them, but the loss just hurts them just a bit because it was the expected result and thus was largely baked into the projections.
Put another way the larger movements occur when a bubble team beats a significantly higher team or loses to a significantly lower one.
X has two challenges
- being below the line it needs good days, not merely flat ones
- the possible effect of bid thieves lurks.

[X-band '01]

That hurts SMU a lot more than you think. The Mustangs can't get a win against a potential NCAA Tournament team until the ACC Tournament now. They lost to Duke, Clemson, Louisville and Wake at home (not to mention they also lost at home to Mississippi State). Their remaining schedule is the West Coast swing (Cal/Stanford) and then a home game against Cuse and a road game at Florida State. That ain't gonna cut it.

Another development is that South Carolina may finally win a conference game tonight. Texas would be the victim of this damaging loss.

[HenryMuto]

Another development is that South Carolina may finally win a conference game tonight. Texas would be the victim of this damaging loss.

Too bad my Kentucky Wildcats could hold onto that lead in Texas that would have ended them

[GoMuskies]

Any time Kentucky loses is good.

[Xavgrad08]

Arkansas up 8 at home vs Missouri with 2 minutes left. Was really hoping Missouri would win this. Texas is currently getting smoked at South Carolina.