Path to the dance

[xubrew]

A few points...

The NCAA does not even calculate an RPI for men's and women's basketball anymore. Warren Nolan still does and he still uses it for his own team sheets and data, but that's not what the NCAA uses it for. They still use an RPI for baseball, softball, soccer (which they really shouldn't, but do), and a few other team sports, but not for men's and women's basketball. It's gone. It's done. It's never coming back. They don't even calculate it. The NET is the current sorting tool.

But, at the end of the day, the NET really is no more than a sorting tool. It's main purpose is to decide how data is placed on a page. That's really it. The selection process isn't quite that objective.

The committee communicates every week. Probably every day. Each member has primary and secondary conferences they are in charge of monitoring and reporting on each week. They present what they've monitored, the other members ask questions, and they discuss it. This literally starts on the first night of the season and continues through the whole season. They pretty much see everything. While I think people like Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm and the Bracket Matrix are really good at guessing who will get in and what their seed will be, I also don't think they're evaluating the teams quite the same way the committee is. They may almost always get the same results, so it may not matter, but the actual committee members are almost assuredly not evaluating teams the same way those guys are. They aren't saying to one another "If Team A gets up to quad 1, then it will make the difference as to whether or not we select Team B." That's just not how AD's and commissioners typically talk. They'll know things (or should) like when Wisconsin beat Arizona that Arizona was not playing nearly as well in November as they are now, and they'll subjectively factor that in. They'll know about injuries to key players. They actually have as part of their data a list of every game where players ere not available. That gets factored in too. They'll know (or should know) when a team is good overall, but bad on the road. Kansas, for instance, hasn't won a road game against a team that's likely to into the field on the committee's first ballot. So, if a team beats Kansas on their own home floor, they're not going to get the same amount of credit as if they'd done it on the road or at a neutral site. So, not all quad 1 wins are counted the same.

Okay, maybe the above is interesting and maybe it isn't. As far as Xavier playing their way in, they absolutely can. I think they're playing better now than they were up until about two weeks ago, and if they keep it up for the regular season, and hold serve and win the games that they should, then I think they'll get selected. Yeah, they didn't win at Creighton or Saint John's, and winning just one of htose would have been huge, but those two teams are a combined 25-1 AT HOME!! And I'm sure the committee knows that. Had X won just one of those they'd be in much better shape for the obvious reason of how good that win would have been. But they can still reach the field. 'February X' would kick 'December X's' ass!! It took them a while to get going, but they did finally get going. It's late, but it's not TOO late.

[MHettel]

It’s been more than 2 weeks since I started this thread. Obviously 20 or so additional games are now in the books.

Of course our backs are against the wall. And there seems to be a lot of angst about the lack of Q1 wins. I actually think that will take care of itself.

But there is an opening in my mind. If we just concede that SJU, MU,CU, and UConn are the top 4 teams and all locks, we just need to show that we belong in that discussion. Those teams have lost a combined 12 games. But only FOUR losses came to teams NOT in that group. We have 2 wins against that group. GT and Nova have one each, and we split with them. If we can manage a win vs Creighton, we will be 5-8 against the top teams. If they hold serve and don’t lose to any teams other than each other, those 3 wins look pretty dang solid. Under that scenario, we’d get the needed separation from GT and Nova as well, since each would only have one win against the top 4.

As I pointed out before, the top teams all have “harder” schedules down the stretch than they did at the beginning. We were the opposite. I think the Q1 status of wins may resolve itself just through the fact that these top teams will all get a SOS boost as they play each other. Who knows what goes into the net, but playing good teams has to help.

5th place seems to be our destiny, but looking more like the top 4 than the bottom 6 is essential at this point. A BET win (1) probably gets us in.

Definition of bubble right here.

One loss and it’s over ( in a massively disappointing way)

[waggy]

Losses at UConn and St. John's both in OT just sucks.

[xubrew]

If the NCAA shortens the games to 30 minutes I think Xavier may win out and then win it all.