More NIL fun!

[XUGRAD80]

Yeah. None of the schools were breaking rules prior to NIL, which is why X was able to play with the big boys.

The point I was trying to make is that they can make the $# what ever they want. There’s no guarantee that some won’t just ignore the rules. So I’m not really that concerned about how they set up the NCAA rules. Some will just ignore it, but I don’t think X can afford to do that, even if they chose to do so.

X able to “play with the big boys”? 4 conference winning seasons in 11 since joining the BE. One conference co-championship. No final 4. No top recruiting classes. It’s one thing to play with them, it’s another to actually beat them. It takes top players to win championships and it’s going to be really hard for X to win bidding wars against schools with unlimited payroll.

[Xavier]

I was meaning it didn’t stop X from rising to a top 20-25 program in the A10. But they did go on to win the big east and manage a 1 seed and a 2 seed pre NIL and just regular cheating that you’re referring to. I just don’t consider it an excuse for not returning to a top 20 type program they were before.

[XU_Lou]

I only am familiar with the basics of NIL. I understand what you are saying in your first comment. Could you elaborate on your second point above?

Basically, something along these lines is what I fear as a possibility:

My take on the latest move by the Power 5

The Impact of Power 5’s Breakaway on the Big East

The Power 5 conferences are pushing toward a break from the NCAA, proposing a $20 million revenue-sharing cap, with a suggested $7 million allocation for basketball teams. This move gives Power 5 schools a significant advantage in recruiting, as they can offer both guaranteed revenue-sharing payments and lucrative NIL deals. This financial disparity could destabilize smaller programs in conferences like the Big East, particularly those without the resources to compete.

While the Big East’s top programs, like UConn, could potentially remain competitive, smaller schools such as Seton Hall and DePaul would struggle to keep up. As Power 5 schools offer financial security, NIL opportunities, and greater exposure, these programs could siphon top talent, creating a widening gap. The financial pressure might even force the top Big East teams to leave for a more lucrative Power 5 or “P6” league.

The Power 5’s attempts to regulate NIL, by instituting caps and centralized revenue sharing, are unlikely to survive antitrust challenges, according to most legal experts. Even if they succeed in capping the revenue-sharing portion, it would likely mean a base salary of $500K-plus per player. This shift could result in minimal impact on the competitive balance, giving Power 5 schools a direct financial advantage but leaving the Big East and smaller conferences without the ability to compete for elite talent.

Without a cap on NIL, the Big East would face enormous challenges. A revenue-sharing model could be adopted by the conference, but it would be ineffective without regulating NIL. Even Top programs in the Big East would still struggle to compete with the uncapped NIL deals offered by Power 5 schools. A Big East revenue-sharing model on its own would only exacerbate the financial divide, making it impossible for smaller programs to financially compete.

Thus, the Big East could face serious fragmentation, with top teams potentially seeking to join more lucrative Power 5 conferences while the smaller schools fall behind. To remain competitive, the Big East would need to find ways to close the NIL gap—perhaps by implementing its own NIL collectives—but this too could prove difficult without significant financial backing.

In conclusion, while the Power 5’s revenue-sharing and NIL regulations could benefit their schools, they threaten to destabilize smaller conferences like the Big East. Without a way to regulate NIL, smaller programs will be unable to compete, leading to potential fragmentation and a reshaping of the college basketball landscape.

To add to this - there have been discussions on this board and elsewhere that the ultimate goal of the power 4 is to leave the NCAA altogether and form their own super league, and thus leave the rest of the schools to fetch for themselves. I don't know if that's true, but this could be the first cut in the ties that bind the NCAA together. Maybe???

[XUGRAD80]

I was meaning it didn’t stop X from rising to a top 20-25 program in the A10. But they did go on to win the big east and manage a 1 seed and a 2 seed pre NIL and just regular cheating that you’re referring to. I just don’t consider it an excuse for not returning to a top 20 type program they were before.

It my opinion that the ratings are very inaccurate for judging just how good a team is. Especially ratings in the preseason and early in the year. I don’t put much faith in them at all. I think that when a lower level team is dominate against the competition they face at that level, and runs off a lot of wins in a row, they are almost always rated higher than they really deserve. This happened for X many years. That also led to them being over seeded at times. IMO they didn’t deserve to be a 1 seed the year that they were. I do think that their record in the NCAA tournament is much more accurate when used to reflect how good some of those teams were. And yes, X has had some really good teams and has consistently been a very good program. But perhaps because of their regular season records against MCC and A10 competition they have been a little overrated over the years? Other schools have also been subject to this as well.

But I also don't think that MOST teams were buying players during that period. X was not competing financially in that way against MOST of the teams that they were competing with for recruits. But that is no longer the case. EVERYONE is now paying the players. But, like in every other business I can name, there are going to be SOME that push the boundaries of what is allowed and SOME others that are going to outright cheat. I think that X can and will compete successfully against teams playing by the rules. I’m just saying that they won’t compete well against the teams that don’t. Nothing different than what they had before, EXCEPT it’s no longer A10 schools and A10 budgets that they are competing with. They are no longer the Big Dog of the conference because they take it more seriously than any other school. EVERY school in the BE is just as serious as X is.

[webxu]

Basically, something along these lines is what I fear as a possibility:




To add to this - there have been discussions on this board and elsewhere that the ultimate goal of the power 4 is to leave the NCAA altogether and form their own super league, and thus leave the rest of the schools to fetch for themselves. I don't know if that's true, but this could be the first cut in the ties that bind the NCAA together. Maybe???

Football is the driver here, I could envision a world where football splits off and all other sports go back to conference afflilations that make sense, which would be ideal. I think this run by ND in football is showing the other football schools that conferences may not matter that much. ND just got 20M all to themselves for making the natty, while OSU/TX would have to split that 20M with all other conference members. How long will OSU continue to shell out 20M for a NIL super team, then split the 20M they would receive with Rutgers.. i know the tv deals etc, but with streaming becoming mainstream each team could have a deal like ND does all to their own. Probably all wishful thkinking and me yearning for us to be a dominate bball power again.. sigh.

[Xville]

It my opinion that the ratings are very inaccurate for judging just how good a team is. Especially ratings in the preseason and early in the year. I don’t put much faith in them at all. I think that when a lower level team is dominate against the competition they face at that level, and runs off a lot of wins in a row, they are almost always rated higher than they really deserve. This happened for X many years. That also led to them being over seeded at times. IMO they didn’t deserve to be a 1 seed the year that they were. I do think that their record in the NCAA tournament is much more accurate when used to reflect how good some of those teams were. And yes, X has had some really good teams and has consistently been a very good program. But perhaps because of their regular season records against MCC and A10 competition they have been a little overrated over the years? Other schools have also been subject to this as well.

But I also don't think that MOST teams were buying players during that period. X was not competing financially in that way against MOST of the teams that they were competing with for recruits. But that is no longer the case. EVERYONE is now paying the players. But, like in every other business I can name, there are going to be SOME that push the boundaries of what is allowed and SOME others that are going to outright cheat. I think that X can and will compete successfully against teams playing by the rules. I’m just saying that they won’t compete well against the teams that don’t. Nothing different than what they had before, EXCEPT it’s no longer A10 schools and A10 budgets that they are competing with. They are no longer the Big Dog of the conference because they take it more seriously than any other school. EVERY school in the BE is just as serious as X is.

While I agree with some of this I don’t think butler, seton hall and DePaul take bb as serious as x does

[XU_Lou]

Football is the driver here, I could envision a world where football splits off and all other sports go back to conference afflilations that make sense, which would be ideal. I think this run by ND in football is showing the other football schools that conferences may not matter that much. ND just got 20M all to themselves for making the natty, while OSU/TX would have to split that 20M with all other conference members. How long will OSU continue to shell out 20M for a NIL super team, then split the 20M they would receive with Rutgers.. i know the tv deals etc, but with streaming becoming mainstream each team could have a deal like ND does all to their own. Probably all wishful thkinking and me yearning for us to be a dominate bball power again.. sigh.

I agree with several of your points. And yes, only f-ball splitting from the NCAA is obviously a very real possibility.

[XUGRAD80]

While I agree with some of this I don’t think butler, seton hall and DePaul take bb as serious as x does

I think that they take it as seriously, but from what I’ve seen reported, they don’t spend what X does. However, let’s also keep in mind that the numbers reported aren’t necessarily comparing apples to apples. Arena costs, coaches salaries, etc. and how they are included or excluded from reported expenses and costs can differ greatly from school to school. BUT from everything I’ve seen reported, X is NOT in the top tier of the BE conference for its BB budget, even though what they spend now is much more than any of the budgets they had while in the A10.

What I’d really like to see is an accurate comparison of recruiting department costs and expenses, and player payments. I think that would be very interesting and telling.

[XUGRAD80]

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/...tumbling-block

Interesting read that fits this discussion

[paulxu]

Not "employees(?)" but maybe you can pay them to buy a National Championship.

https://www.on3.com/nil/news/on3s-to...ollege-sports/

$20 million for OSU team. 10 players on it making more than $1million. Student athletes...and business men.