UConn

[GoMuskies]

I'm beginning to think the University of Chicago, Sewanee and Holy Cross were brilliant to largely get out this game early on.

[Xavgrad08]

Really curious on the wording in the new Big East media agreement with Fox/NBC on losing a member/members. This quote from Big East commissioner from August is interesting. "These are contractual relationships. If a school wants to leave, conferences provide for that. ... So you try to protect yourself a little bit with an exit fee that will help make up for whatever revenues might be lost because a team is leaving, and thatÂ’s what we have with UConn and everybody else".

https://www.newstimes.com/sports/uco...k-19719636.php

If the Big 12 invites UCONN ( still not 100% sure it happens) then Fox/NBC might dictate expansion to offset. That is where it will get very interesting.

I have deeper thoughts on where College Basketball might be heading with SEC,Big Ten and Big 12 power leading to a change in the Tournament and other changes. I will save those thoughts for a different time. In the meantime I hope the UCONN situation gets resolved either way quickly.

Separately, Big 12 Commissioner is probably the biggest threat to the current Big East. I hope he moves onto another job in the next couple years because he really values Basketball properties.

[X-band '01]

I'm beginning to think the University of Chicago, Sewanee and Holy Cross were brilliant to largely get out this game early on.

You mean like Tulane and the SEC?

[GoMuskies]

You mean like Tulane and the SEC?

Sewanee got out of the SEC and never looked back. Tulane got out and has been chasing it ever since. Very different.

[xudash]

Really curious on the wording in the new Big East media agreement with Fox/NBC on losing a member/members. This quote from Big East commissioner from August is interesting. "These are contractual relationships. If a school wants to leave, conferences provide for that. ... So you try to protect yourself a little bit with an exit fee that will help make up for whatever revenues might be lost because a team is leaving, and thatÂ’s what we have with UConn and everybody else".

https://www.newstimes.com/sports/uco...k-19719636.php

If the Big 12 invites UCONN ( still not 100% sure it happens) then Fox/NBC might dictate expansion to offset. That is where it will get very interesting.

I have deeper thoughts on where College Basketball might be heading with SEC,Big Ten and Big 12 power leading to a change in the Tournament and other changes. I will save those thoughts for a different time. In the meantime I hope the UCONN situation gets resolved either way quickly.

Separately, Big 12 Commissioner is probably the biggest threat to the current Big East. I hope he moves onto another job in the next couple years because he really values Basketball properties.

If UCONN leaves, then the Big East obviously will lose available content - televised UCONN games - that have otherwise been factored into the new media agreement(s).

$7.3 million per school per year will go down, but would hopefully settle at a figure that would still be better than the per school payout when the deal was originally put together in 2013 by Fox. In other words, even with the loss of UCONN, will the Big East, back to its "original" 10 from the 2013 reset, be deemed to be a more valuable property than when it reset back then?

Now you get to the question of expansion. I will submit for the nth time that expansion HAS TO BE ACCRETIVE TO THE EXISTING (REMAINING) MEMBERS. The Big East will have no desire to bring in a new school that dilutes the annual per team payout. I would think that Fox would not directly care, as they'll end up picking up UCONN on the flipside with their Big 12 programming - they'll be able to fill their viewership windows otherwise. They won't want to hurt their own property by making it make less money.

The cocktail napkin sketch for all of this to me, where the emphasis is on both cosmetic and financial objectives, fleshes out to involving the Big East finding a way to bring in Gonzaga. Cosmetic in the sense that the Big East lands a basketball-centric power to replace UCONN. Financial in the sense that such a replacement will at least be sum zero or mildly accretive (assumed).

Bringing in Gonzaga is fraught with issues and risks, but they at least would be absolutely aligned: Catholic/Jesuit and basketball first.

EDIT: It will absolutely suck to go under $7 milion for the annual payout, but it is what it is.

[nuts4xu]

I feel it's remarkable when a large state university can't field a quality football program.

UConn falls into this category.

They have no business playing football in the Big 12.

The rest of their programs (baseball, men's and women's basketball, soccer, etc.) are also better off in a league like the Big East.

If they want to leave, it's a shame but the BE will be fine.

[Xville]

THAT should be the real question and the primary focus here: WHAT IS THE TRUE NET VALUE OF SUCH A SEAT?

Let’s start with a key premise: successful sports ( i.e. football and basketball, primarily), provide a front porch for a University. Successful programs build brand and brand awareness, leading to more applications on the one hand and more contributions on the other.

So, what kind of investment is required in order to operate successfully here? Obviously, football is different from basketball. Look at how smaller, private schools, including a number of Catholic schools, have leveraged basketball to build national awareness; to build their brands. Yes, it’s all relative: football and bigger schools lead to bigger brands and more awareness, but that does not discount the fact that Xavier, in our case, has become a national university drawing from across the country, helped by its success in basketball.

Football gets a lot more complicated. In fact, I will submit that it has become unsolvable for any program outside of the SEC and B1G. We already know that there are about 20 programs in total that can be said to operate on a profitable (surplus) basis. They come from those two conferences, as well as South Bend, Indiana. There are even programs in those two conferences that move forward by the grace of their shares of lucrative media agreements.

Big 12 and ACC programs? IMHO, a brutal outlook for them long term. The COSTS required to make that seat valuable are high and getting higher and they don’t go away. Those conferences are guaranteed one seat each in the new 12-team playoff system. That’s it. You don’t make it through a conference championship game, then welcome to the weed-eater bowl. What is the value of that “front porch“ overtime considering the amount of investment required to even give your program a chance of operating at that level?

Having noted that, there is no doubt that you get to say that you are in the game and that you have a seat. It’s just more likely that certain programs - actually, a large number of programs by mathematical reality - will find themselves operating in the middle of the pack or the bottom end of these conferences. Looking at this objectively, and using UC as an example, I cannot see where they are well positioned to compete for a Big 12 conference championship moving forward. I see them finding it hard to operate above .500 seasons year in and year out. What might attendance look like at Nippert in 2030, following years of middling performance?

If I haven’t put you to sleep yet, let’s now bring UCONN into the conversation. UCONN makes UC look like a juggernaut. How much money will it take to enable the Huskies to go to Provo in seven years to keep from losing by four touchdowns to Utah?

The seat will only be valuable if it is accompanied by winning!

Yet UCONN leadership is hell-bent on obtaining the seat. They already operate from a substantial deficit position. The amount of money that is going to be required to get them to even a respectable level is substantial. Hurley cannot possibly be happy about this idea.

Cost:Benefit. The costs are rather staggering. The benefit isn’t exactly clear, and it will or will not come in a period of flux and instability, and it may very well damage UCONN’s true flagship sport.

Is that accurate? I have heard anecdotally it's not accurate so take that for what it's worth, and this is USA today so again who really knows for sure but here's the link.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

This is a fun site:

https://www.sportico.com/business/co...te-1234646029/

A Few notes:

I don't think schools are in the business of losing money, nor making moves to where they are not going to make money. IMHO UCONN would definitely benefit from going to the Big 12, and with Yomark at the helm, I completely disagree that that conference has a bad long term outlook. Let's be honest, winning is secondary...if UCONN football can just be mediocre in that conference, most likely it's a financial windfall compared to where they are now.

Louisville had possibly the worst two year span in the history of big time college basketball athletics and I know for a fact they still made money the last two years.

Lastly, I understand that this is operating rev/exp and capital is a whole different matter, but just a hunch that a lot of those dollars are student/donor driven and the athletic programs pump in a small amount.

[xudash]

Is that accurate? I have heard anecdotally it's not accurate so take that for what it's worth, and this is USA today so again who really knows for sure but here's the link.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances

This is a fun site:

https://www.sportico.com/business/co...te-1234646029/

A Few notes:

I don't think schools are in the business of losing money, nor making moves to where they are not going to make money. IMHO UCONN would definitely benefit from going to the Big 12, and with Yomark at the helm, I completely disagree that that conference has a bad long term outlook. Let's be honest, winning is secondary...if UCONN football can just be mediocre in that conference, most likely it's a financial windfall compared to where they are now.

Louisville had possibly the worst two year span in the history of big time college basketball athletics and I know for a fact they still made money the last two years.

Lastly, I understand that this is operating rev/exp and capital is a whole different matter, but just a hunch that a lot of those dollars are student/donor driven and the athletic programs pump in a small amount.

Your USA Today link does not work.

What are you saying isn't accurate: that there are only a handful of programs that operate at a surplus? You need to consider the revenue line item that reads "Direct Institutional Support." That, I believe, is funding coming from student fees, in most cases. From my way of looking at it, I strip that out, because student fees could otherwise be used for something like, well like something having to do with education, since that is what these places are primarily in the business of providing. That line item is a subsidy, and there is no other way of looking at it.

Now consider when revenue sharing / direct compensation comes into play. That is going to blow up a lot of these schools.

[Xville]

Your USA Today link does not work.

What are you saying isn't accurate: that there are only a handful of programs that operate at a surplus? You need to consider the revenue line item that reads "Direct Institutional Support." That, I believe, is funding coming from student fees, in most cases. From my way of looking at it, I strip that out, because student fees could otherwise be used for something like, well like something having to do with education, since that is what these places are primarily in the business of providing. That line item is a subsidy, and there is no other way of looking at it.

Now consider when revenue sharing / direct compensation comes into play. That is going to blow up a lot of these schools.

I believe there are a lot more than 20 currently that operate at a surplus, I believe it's probably more like 40-50. I understand what you mean by the line item though...even though for a school like Clemson they are operating athletically at a profit even taking into consideration that line item. (I do wonder what all that line item encompasses.)

As far as rev share/ direct compensation, I agree it will hurt a lot of schools. However, I'm sure that for the P4 and probably the big east, they will just add it to the cost of the tickets/donations and be just fine. In the end, as others have said here previously, we will be the ones paying for it, not the schools. However, at least we'll get some entertainment out of it i guess.

Take X for example...27 home games is that right? average 10k a game....10 dollar "NIL surcharge" 2.7 million dollars....probably another million a year or so in private donations etc and X is where they need to be.

Regardless, all im saying is that UCONN is on its hands and knees because they believe they can make more money in the big 12, and having an average/medicore football team. I agree with them.

[GoMuskies]

27 home games? That's more like 17 or 18, no?