Politics Thread

[XU_Lou]

Trump is -185, Harris +350, Newsom +1000, Biden +1100.

Just of curiosity, how much money (in total) is being bet on these political bets? 6, 7, 8 digits? Are these numbers comparable/larger than say the Super Bowl?

[GoMuskies]

I don't know how the Dems ended up being stuck with Biden and Harris again, but they are the only two I can imagine being incapable of beating Trump. Just using the betting odds to go down the list, I think every single every other person would beat Trump if they had been "selected" instead of Biden/Harris (because no one was voted into this):

Gavin Newsom - awful but easily beats Trump
Michelle Obama - would win 40+ states
Gretchen Whitmer - alive, not Harris, wins close
Hillary Clinton - she'd win easy this time
Josh Shapiro - I have no idea who that is. Good enough!
J.B. Prizker - Slightly less obnoxious rich white guy. Winner
Mayor Pete - Dominant win
Andy Beshear - 40+ state win
Raphael Warnock - OK, don't really know anything about him other than he's less stupid than Herschel Walker (low bar)
Elizabeth Warren - takes the plains states from Republicans with her Native background

[GoMuskies]

Just of curiosity, how much money (in total) is being bet on these political bets? 6, 7, 8 digits? Are these numbers comparable/larger than say the Super Bowl?

No idea how much is actually being wagered, but the max bet is $500. So it's not just a jokey $25 max bet deal.

The max bet was $2500 last week. I think things are so crazy and moving around so rapidly they don't want to take crazy action on these bets right now. For example, Biden is back down to +600 in the couple of hours since I posted that he was +1100.

[Xville]

Regardless, I still don’t think Biden is going anywhere

[GoMuskies]

You can get him at +120 to be the Dem nominee right now. That would be an easy $600.

[Xville]

You can get him at +120 to be the Dem nominee right now. That would be an easy $600.

The only problem is the chance of death which is prolly pretty strong.

As an aside , I’m not sure he has dementia, I think he has Parkinson’s.

[xuphan]

Maybe. I’m not much one for polls but for shits and giggles miss bj herself polls about two points behind. I really think she’d capture a lot of the African American vote even though she’s not African American, and women.

She seems really really stupid but a lot of independents are ready to vote for a corpse against trump. I’d have to think a bigger number would vote for someone that’s not 80

Are a lot of independent voters ready to vote for Biden over Trump? You sure about that? Independent voters want nothing to do with Biden or Trump. There will still be twists and turns in the coming months but I would bet Trump is a slight favorite over Biden with the Independents. Especially after the debate.

[Muskie in dayton]

Maybe. I’m not much one for polls but for shits and giggles miss bj herself polls about two points behind. I really think she’d capture a lot of the African American vote even though she’s not African American, and women.

She seems really really stupid but a lot of independents are ready to vote for a corpse against trump. I’d have to think a bigger number would vote for someone that’s not 80

Are you suggesting blacks and women are stupid? Sounds racist and sexist to me.

[Xville]

Are you suggesting blacks and women are stupid? Sounds racist and sexist to me.

Those are your words, not mine.

I think women, because she is likeable (especially vs Trump who wants to fuck his daughter and grab'em by the pussy) unlike what Hilary was back in '16.

I think African American 1.) because historically they have voted democrat, and 2.) if you've not noticed she's a minority.

[Xville]

Are a lot of independent voters ready to vote for Biden over Trump? You sure about that? Independent voters want nothing to do with Biden or Trump. There will still be twists and turns in the coming months but I would bet Trump is a slight favorite over Biden with the Independents. Especially after the debate.

Seen anything from a 12 point Trump lead among independents to about 2. So, yeah Trump has a lead, but a large number are still willing to vote for a corpse over him.

I'd think as bad as Kamala seems to be imo, she's at least not 80 and more palatable for those independents who are on the fence.

This is all opinion of course, and like I said I don't think much of polls, just thinking out loud.