Politics Thread

[scoscox]

Oil opened down 30%. A barrel is now $30. This is more than coronavirus.

ehhh it's mostly coronavirus

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/i...rus/index.html

plus the fact that basically no one in any of these countries that are on lockdown are driving

[Lloyd Braun]

Dude, I never claimed a thing about “Birther”. Someone (You?) Claimed that this Birther thing had a major effect on the election and I said it did not. All I’ve said is that Hilary was a trash candidate and the American people saw that and did not elect her. That’s all.
Check the thread

Yes, let’s check the thread....
Oh, here it is.

It’s not far fetched to believe that without the ridiculous conspiracy theories of Obama’s birthplace, religion, etc. that Donald Trump may not be President today. Trump used that platform to catapult himself into the political spotlight.

There is nothing in here about the election. I simply said Trump burst onto the national political scene quite rapidly once he used this birther platform. Which is true. Nowhere did I say it won him an election. It seems to me that you, like many Republicans that are good people, need to validate voting for such an abhorrent individual that goes against core Catholic values. The only way to do that is continually focus on how bad Hillary is, so Trump could be lesser of two evils. Tell me I am wrong.

[Caf]

ehhh it's mostly coronavirus

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/i...rus/index.html

plus the fact that basically no one in any of these countries that are on lockdown are driving

I think that's overstated considering China is supposedly past its peak and Italy is Italy, but could be air travel too. Seems like more of a pure economic war tactic from Saudi Arabia. Aramco's IPO timing certainly seems tactically timed.

Obviously this will be a disaster for US shale if its sustained. Hopefully the benefit of cheap oil to the broader economy is enough to offset it.

[GoMuskies]

US shale can withstand low oil prices much more readily than Saudi.

[scoscox]

I think that's overstated considering China is supposedly past its peak and Italy is Italy, but could be air travel too. Seems like more of a pure economic war tactic from Saudi Arabia. Aramco's IPO timing certainly seems tactically timed.

Obviously this will be a disaster for US shale if its sustained. Hopefully the benefit of cheap oil to the broader economy is enough to offset it.

who is saying China is "past its peak"? and i'm not sure what "italy is italy" means. china is totally shut down. that's a huge drop in demand. reduction in road and air travel is pretty significant. major events are also being cancelled all over the world. it's entirely possible OPEC is trying to hurt us out of malice, but there are definitely very reasonable alternative explanations at the moment

[scoscox]

Deleted

[Caf]

US shale can withstand low oil prices much more readily than Saudi.

America can withstand low oil prices more than Saudi Arabia but US shale firm's have breakevens in the upper $40 low $50 range. Some have already announced Capex cutbacks and it's been 12 hours.

[Caf]

who is saying China is "past its peak"? and i'm not sure what "italy is italy" means. china is totally shut down. that's a huge drop in demand. reduction in road and air travel is pretty significant. major events are also being cancelled all over the world. it's entirely possible OPEC is trying to hurt us out of malice, but there are definitely very reasonable alternative explanations at the moment

China does, which is why I said supposedly.

Italy's consumption is not a presence in the oil market about 1%.

I think coronavirus explains the decay in values we've seen up until last night which is significant. 30% over the weekend is not correlated to the virus but the OPEC+ meeting. There's a chicken or the egg debate to be had about why they would start a price war now.

[X-man]

Yes, let’s check the thread....
Oh, here it is.



There is nothing in here about the election. I simply said Trump burst onto the national political scene quite rapidly once he used this birther platform. Which is true. Nowhere did I say it won him an election. It seems to me that you, like many Republicans that are good people, need to validate voting for such an abhorrent individual that goes against core Catholic values. The only way to do that is continually focus on how bad Hillary is, so Trump could be lesser of two evils. Tell me I am wrong.

And then when MOR said that you were implying that Trump was elected by "stupid" people (presumably because you brought up the fake news birther platform that Trump endorsed), I responded with links reporting that polls of Republicans taken in late summer of 2016 (as well as in 2017) indeed showed that Republicans bought into the birther hoax. MOR's response to, as always, to throw shade accusing me (without evidence) of using biased news sites and putting words into his mouth. MOR, like so many of his like-minded brethren, appears to blame the deliverer of the news whenever he doesn't like the news rather than (say) actually evaluating reliability of the news itself. Not helpful for discussion.

[paulxu]

I think the S&P just hit (7%) the auto-suspend or 15 minutes mark.