Streetcar Update on Development

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Originally Posted by boozehound

I get that crime keeps people away from downtown. What I don't necessarily get is how we determine that all these people want to live in OTR, if they could get it cleaned up. The pro OTR-gentrification crowd wants people to believe that there are thousands of people just waiting for OTR to get cleaned up so they can move in. I'm not necessarily saying that isn't true, but I would like to see the data that those assumptions are based on. My guess is survey questions. The problem with surveying people is that they lie when being surveyed.

I also don't buy the 'downtown isn't safe because OTR is close by' argument. There are lots of bars and restaurants South of 7th street. That is a very safe area. I work on 7th Street and come downtown frequently at night. Crime is not an issue in and around the central business district. I would say that anywhere south of about 8th street is pretty safe. During the day it is safe all the way up to Central Parkway.

I would be interested to know how you are going to get all the poverty and crime and OTR away from downtown, vs. just moving it to another area in or near downtown. That would be a real trick. Those people would most likely move west to areas like the West End, Queensgate, Price Hill, and Westwood, many of which are already going (or gone!) downhill. Many of those areas have a lot of old homes with great architecture as well. They also have strong community advocates trying to clean up those areas. Maybe the OTR-gentrification folks can have a rumble in the streets with the Price Hill gentrification crowd ala West Side Story.

At the end of the day I support downtown development. I spend a lot of time downtown. The revitilization of fountain square has been spectacular and has been a significant boon for the area. I don't necessarily think that the street car is a bad idea, either. What I don't really get the 'need' to gentrify OTR and I think it is going to be a very tough process. OTR is a very rough area surrounded by a bunch of other rough areas. I don't see how you can make them all nice, safe places to live.

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Essentially, OTR is right on top of downtown. You have to drive through it or past it to get there from the north. People talk about downtown being dangerous and that's enough. I'm not saying it's unsafe for you or others in lot's of places. The perception needs changing. That and there is a close enough proximity of violent crime in OTR that it makes some people uncomfortable. Downtown isn't that big. If you're comfortable down there, you're in some kind of minority, meaning you've actually been there and noticed it's not bad. Many people haven't or aren't as open minded.

I think the city leaders have looked at this problem, part perception, part reality, and decided that OTR as it stands isn't worth putting up with, so they're going to change it. Other neighborhoods, further out, that don't attract visitors or businesses, will be the first effected.

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Originally Posted by pizza delivery

Investment. Private investment even!

Did you read the article in the beginning of the thread?

I can't recall if you ever offered any solutions for OTR though.

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1) The article talks about the "hope" that private investment will follow. There is no evidence that it has or will, as the article admits.

2) Assuming we do get some private investment along the route, does this mean the criminals in the area are going to stop committing crimes? Was OTR any safer when the Main Street bars were doing well?

3) I have a hard time believing that, particularly at night, many people will want to take a streetcar through one of Cincinnati's most dangerous neighborhoods. One violent crime and whatever ridership existed will come to a stop. (See Main Street bars after the riots).

4) What to do about OTR? Building a streetcar will not change OTR''s core problems of lack of family structures which then feed into lack of education, drugs and crime.

Let me be clear about one thing. I grew up in this city and have worked downtown for over 15 years. There is no place else in town I would rather work. I really like downtown and go there fairly frequently to eat on weekends. From a personal standpoint, and coming from a guy who occasionally likes to sip a few after work, I want downtown development (particularly good bars that serve cheap beer). I want the hour and a half before a Reds game to be like a Cubs game at Wrigley. I would like to see OTR changed (as well as other Cincinnati neighborhoods). But building a streetcar at a yearly loss of $2 million isn't going to do much, if anything, for downtown or OTR. And it's not a good use of taxpayer money.

Actually the Republicans were quite active during the healthcare debate until the last couple months when the Dems gave up. Initially it was going to be a public option, not mandatory but provided by the government rather than through insurance companies. Those with insurance could continue to receive their employer's insurance. Republicans demonized this as socialism and the Dems changed it to go through private providers. Along with this change came stipulations on businesses to offer insurance for employees. I don't know all the details of the final bill as I have no intention of reading the 2000 pages but it is a mess and a lot of it was Republican influence. I'm sure the Republicans didn't get what they intended to get but the "compromises" made the bill far worse than the original intent.

The "death panels" term is misleading as the treatments in question are those that potentially extend life only a matter of months with no hope of a cure and are frequently experimental. The proposed change is to give the patient a more dignified end to their life where comfort and patient care is the primary concern. This is an incredibly cheaper option and isn't denying anyone the chance to live other than possibly a few extra months. This term is very similar to the "death tax" which only applies to multi millionaires, typically those with net worths in excess of $5 million and only on net assets exceeding that level (the $ level changes frequently $2 to $15 million probably covers the range). The average person and even wealthy people never pay a cent in taxes when they die, only those fortunate enough to have millions or billions of dollars. If you disagree with charging tax on the ultra wealthy when they die that is fine but using the term "death tax" is very misleading.

If changes are not made to medicare and social security in the very near future a true death panel will be needed as the country is very close to unsustainable debt levels.

I'm all for small government, unfortunately both the Democrats and Republicans are for big government. They each want big government in different ways but they want it. Republicans want a huge military (more than all other countries spend combined), frequent wars, definition of mariage, strict drug laws, wire taping, no abortion, subsidies, etc. Democrats want rules attempting to prevent corporations from abusing employees, taking advantage of insider information, cheating/taking advantage of consumers. They also want education, social security, healthcare, subsidies, gun laws, etc.

Personally if I'm going to get big government either way, I prefer the social expenses. I just wish they would do it more effectively. They both most definitely over reach but to me it boils down to healthcare and education vs military and wars. You need a strong defense but spending more than all other countries combined on a regular basis is insane.

It is my belief that the only way this country will avoid a collapse within the next decade (two max) is if a libertarian is put in charge and given support by congress. Ron Paul is a libertarian despite running as a republican. There are plenty of issues with libertarians too but the main concern for the country at this point is financial and that is the only party I'm aware of with any financial discipline. The US would still feel some significant pain but it could probably avoid a bond blow-up and currency devaluation with the change in leadership. Republicans and Democrats have both been given their chance and each proved to be a failure so it is time to vote independent.

For those thinking the tea party is the answer you might want to consider Palin is a leader in that movement. She might be hot but she likely has an IQ just above 70. If that is the leader you want then I'm sure you will get what you deserve (no job, commodity inflation, no public services, high crime, etc).

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Originally Posted by madness31

For those thinking the tea party is the answer you might want to consider Palin is a leader in that movement. She might be hot but she likely has an IQ just above 70. If that is the leader you want then I'm sure you will get what you deserve (no job, commodity inflation, no public services, high crime, etc).

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As much as I am dying to hear how electing Sarah Pallin might affect "Commodity inflation" vs. re-electing B.H. Obama, I have to ask this since you are weighing in on IQ evaluations: What do you think Barack Obama's IQ is?

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Originally Posted by XU 87

1) The article talks about the "hope" that private investment will follow. There is no evidence that it has or will, as the article admits.

2) Assuming we do get some private investment along the route, does this mean the criminals in the area are going to stop committing crimes? Was OTR any safer when the Main Street bars were doing well?
3) I have a hard time believing that, particularly at night, many people will want to take a streetcar through one of Cincinnati's most dangerous neighborhoods. One violent crime and whatever ridership existed will come to a stop. (See Main Street bars after the riots).

4) What to do about OTR? Building a streetcar will not change OTR''s core problems of lack of family structures which then feed into lack of education, drugs and crime.
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I used to go down to main street when the bar district was open. Main Street itself was pretty safe. There were lots of people and lots of police. If you got a block or 2 off of Main street in the wrong direction though I remember it getting pretty rough pretty fast.

Assuming that the Streetcar is going to happen, and that it is going to go through OTR, I think that they need to take great steps to make sure that the route is safe. Extra police details, etc.

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Originally Posted by boozehound

I used to go down to main street when the bar district was open. Main Street itself was pretty safe. There were lots of people and lots of police. If you got a block or 2 off of Main street in the wrong direction though I remember it getting pretty rough pretty fast.

Assuming that the Streetcar is going to happen, and that it is going to go through OTR, I think that they need to take great steps to make sure that the route is safe. Extra police details, etc.

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Agreed. But as you note, just because a block or two is safe, that doesn't make the rest of the neighborhood safe.

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Originally Posted by XU 87

Agreed. But as you note, just because a block or two is safe, that doesn't make the rest of the neighborhood safe.

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True, but making a whole neighborhood safe often begins with making a block or two safe. Or, as a much wiser man once said, a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

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Originally Posted by XU 87

Agreed. But as you note, just because a block or two is safe, that doesn't make the rest of the neighborhood safe.

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Good point, and I agree 100%.

At the end of the day it sounds like the Streetcar is a done deal, though. As long as they are going to go forward with it I hope that they really put the effort necessary into ensuring safety along the chosen route and creating an environment in which people feel safe. That won't be very easy because they will first have to drive the crime away from the Streetcar route and then change the public perception of OTR. If a few people get robbed or assaulted along the route early on it could do major PR damage to the whole project.

Like Kahns said, it starts with a block or two and (hopefully) spreads out from there. I really hope that this project works out. I am always happy to see development in and around downtown. Hopefully this will work out like the revitilization of East End along Kellogg Avenue. Remember what a dump that place used to be? (although not nearly as bad as OTR) Now it looks great, although I would argue for more commerce in that area instead of just housing.

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Originally Posted by XU 87

1) The article talks about the "hope" that private investment will follow. There is no evidence that it has or will, as the article admits.
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To me, this is the biggest risk of this project. If the private investment does not follow, the project is a failure. Downtown and OTR as they are today do not need, nor will they support a streetcar.

I don't agree that there is no evidence that it has or will. One sound bite from the original article:

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Longtime Westwood-based real estate investor Fred Berger saw in 2008 a perfect combination of desperately low real estate prices and the promise of future growth in the neighborhood. He spent the next 2½ years buying up about 35 sturdy brick apartment buildings in Over-the-Rhine, Pendleton and the West End, all in states of neglect. He paid as little as $10,000 for one property.

"It was a risk, because the trolley wasn't for sure at the time, but that's when you get the best buy," he said. He's spent about $500,000 renovating 40 units in the buildings, now available for either market-rate or subsidized tenants. He has at least twice that left to go.

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One guy has already sunk half a million on speculation that the streetcar would come, and has a million more to go. That's one guy, what he was willing to risk before they project even got approved.

All of the evidence that exists indicates there will be private investment that follows. The risk is that the private investment fails, or is not large enough to create a critical mass of retail and residential along the line.

I can't even guess as to what Obama's IQ is as their is too much conflicting evidence. On the one hand he graduated at the top of his class from Harvard law which is an impressive accomplishment. At the same time he has been very slow to grasp the severity of the economic issues and how best to deal with it. It is likely that his development in this area is slowed by the inability of those around him to grasp the reality of the situation and not by his own level of intelect. He has no background in Finance and economics so he would depend on others to teach him and there are few finance professionals that actually understand what happened and is happening. The mainstream economists and financial analysts have no idea what is going on. I suspect it is a lack of historical understanding of this subject combined with unknowledgable advisors that are causing this slow development but it could be his mind just doesn't think this way. IQ is closely correlated with the ability to understand relationships which is important in understanding finance/econ. A high IQ also plays a key role in doing well on the LSAT and being successful in certain types of law. If you assume the slow development in economic understanding is more related to advisors then you can guess his IQ is close to the 150 genius level but if you believe it is his own issues then it would be much lower (100 - 120). If he scored well on the LSAT then it must be at least 130.

Palin would lead to commodity inflation through a devaluation of the dollar. The US is in a very difficult position right now because if there is no growth it will signal defecits will continue to rise and investors/foreign nations will begin to lose confidence in the governments ability to make good on its obligations. On the other hand if there is growth but deficits continue to rise it will have the same impact. I believe Palin and those she supports would either create growth through tax cuts that reduce tax revenue more than it grows the economy or they cut government programs to a point where it leads to negative GDP and tax receipts that are lower than government obligations.

The same devaluation will occur if the status quo remains. If the Republicans don't begin working with the Obama administration on reasonable tax policy and on proper investment measures. They must get a handle on medicare and social security issues. Business taxes should be lowered and small business compliance burdens must be reduced. Another tax tier must be created with a far higher tax rate than the current top bracket. Someone must sacrifice at the ultra wealthy are the only ones capable without causing economic harm. Combining higher rates at the $1M level with business tax cuts, including small business regulation reform will eventually result in growth in GDP and tax revenue. It might not work immediately because the deleveraging process is incredibly difficult to overcome but it would show investors/foreign nations that the US is positioned correctly for the future and hopefully avoid a currency collapse. Palin and crew would never add another tax tier and raise taxes on the rich which would result in decrease in tax revenue when imposing the other measures. They would stop the infrastructure spending, probably the unemployment, and the states would begin downsizing teachers, police and fire fighters. The economy would collapse. The infrastructure $ have not been spent wisely thus far but infrastructure spending is critical to preparing the country for the future. There are decaying water and sewage pipes that need replaced to maintain clean drinking water and safe sewage passage. The power grids need updated to create efficiencies and avoid blackouts. Rail needs to be a focus to prepare for a time when the easy to obtain oil has already been drilled and prices of gasoline are $5 per gallon. There is plenty of oil but the easy to get oil is running out. Many major oil wells around the world are in decline. These projects must be moved forward but federal spending on roads should be stopped immediately. Let the states find a way to repair their own roads.