Is Dayton a lock?

[xavierj]

I have heard many people over the past week say Creighton will not make the tourney. If that is the case is Dayton a lock to make it?

Here is how they match up.

Head to head = Creighton by 19
Last 10 = Creighton 9-1 Dayton 5-5
League finish = Creighton 1st Dayton 3rd
V.S. Top 50 = Creighton 2-3 Dayton 3-2
RPI = Creighton 37 Dayton 27
SOS = Creighton 112 Dayton 90

Looks close and could go either way but that head to head could bite Dayton.

[cinskyline]

I know we all hate Dayton, but yes they are a lock. Their RPI alone is enough to make them a lock.

And the difference is probably their win over us at UD Arena. If they had lost that one, they'd be in big trouble today.

[drudy23]

I can't see how they don't get it...even though I'd laugh pretty hard if they didn't.

[Masterofreality]

I really don't think that you can call udump a lock. They have a weak SOS when it comes to a lot of the other bubble teams and they have not played that well recently. The fact that they loaded up with cupcakes in the non-conference could come back to bite them in the a$$.

Not only that, you know that Bobo will be asked in the committee room what he thinks about them. Which way will he go? He knows them pretty well, and they haven't looked very good lately.

[Masterofreality]

I know we all hate Dayton, but yes they are a lock. Their RPI alone is enough to make them a lock.


I'm sure Missouri State thought the same thing a couple of years ago too.

[XUfaninJAX]

If Miss. State wins today, Dayton is going to be sweating. They are starting to show as the last 4 in, and are starting to drop to an 11-seed. It will be close, but they should be able to get in.

[The Artist]

I know we all hate Dayton, but yes they are a lock. Their RPI alone is enough to make them a lock.

And the difference is probably their win over us at UD Arena. If they had lost that one, they'd be in big trouble today.

Exactly. Butler may be in the same position.

[bobbyboucher]

I agree that I think Dayton is in, but I don't think that it is a total lock. They will not get through on the first ballot by the committee. They will then be on the higher side of the next wave of teams and should only have to sweat a little. I fully expect them to be a 9-11 seed with the last 4 in falling in 11-12 range. I agree I would laugh if they didn't get in.

[BiggieXU]

Dayton is in for sure.

The guys on ESPN are arguing Creighton vs. major teams, it's very annoying that just because Arizona is Arizona they think they would automatically kill Creighton.

[bourbonman]

I hope they're in. I don't like them, but would want to see 3 A10 teams. If Temple had lost to Duquesne, then they may have been left out in favor of Temple. But that didn't happen, so they should be in.

[The Artist]

Dayton is in for sure.

The guys on ESPN are arguing Creighton vs. major teams, it's very annoying that just because Arizona is Arizona they think they would automatically kill Creighton.

I'd have to go Arizona over Creighton. Creighton has shown no ability to beat any team that will be a 10 seed or better. AZ pretty much only lost to good teams and beat KS and the Zags. Up until I actually looked at their schedule, I thought there was no way AZ should get in, but have since changed my mind. Creighton and St Mary's haven't done enough, in my mind.

[jdm2000]

It's mind-boggling that these guys think Penn State should be in. They beat Michigan State--fine, that's great. They beat Illinois 2x -- so what? Their out-of-conference is perhaps the most atrocious thing I've seen from a legitimate candidate for an at-large spot.

[The Artist]

It's mind-boggling that these guys think Penn State should be in. They beat Michigan State--fine, that's great. They beat Illinois 2x -- so what? Their out-of-conference is perhaps the most atrocious thing I've seen from a legitimate candidate for an at-large spot.

Illinois beat Missouri by about 60.

[XUOWNSUC]

It's mind-boggling that these guys think Penn State should be in. They beat Michigan State--fine, that's great. They beat Illinois 2x -- so what? Their out-of-conference is perhaps the most atrocious thing I've seen from a legitimate candidate for an at-large spot.

Amen. If Penn State gets in, it will send a message to every other "big 6" team out there that it is ok to have a shitty non-conferene schedule as long as your league is tough and you win some of the tough games in your league.

[jdm2000]

If by 60, you mean 16, sure.

They also beat Kent State in overtime and something called "Lewis" by six points.

What's your point?

[The Artist]

If by 60, you mean 16, sure.

They also beat Kent State in overtime and something called "Lewis" by six points.

What's your point?

You said "so what?" I was telling you what.

How would you respond if someone said "Xavier beat Missouri, so what?"

[jdm2000]

Sorry, I think we're getting wires crossed here. Digger was harping on Penn State's 2 wins over Illinois, as if they had somehow beaten Lousiville, Pitt, or UConn twice. My point was that they have beaten Michigan State and Illinois 2x. How is that any different from any other big conference school that beats a team near the top of the conference, and a good-not-great other team in conference twice? But the ESPN guys were relying on that like it was some sort of great shakes. I'm pretty sure every other team in the tourney (and plenty that are out) can point to a two wins on their resume comparable to two wins over Illinois.

[dc_x]

I'd have to go Arizona over Creighton. Creighton has shown no ability to beat any team that will be a 10 seed or better. AZ pretty much only lost to good teams and beat KS and the Zags. Up until I actually looked at their schedule, I thought there was no way AZ should get in, but have since changed my mind. Creighton and St Mary's haven't done enough, in my mind.

Arizona or Creighton is a classic bubble argument.

Is 15-5 in the MVC better than 9-10 in the Pac10?

Is 2-2 vs the top-50 better than 6-10?

Those are though questions. Especially the top-50 wins. Do you reward Arizona for beating 6 high quality teams? Is it fair to punish Creighton for only playing 4 top-50 teams?

I think Creighton wins out when you extend out to top-100 records. Creighton is 9-5 compared to 8-12 for Arizona.

[xsteve1]

I think Dayton gets an 11 seed. As far as Creighton is concerned the MVC was really down this year but they won the regular season and 11 of their last 12 so that should get them in.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I think Creighton wins out when you extend out to top-100 records. Creighton is 9-5 compared to 8-12 for Arizona.

and ESPN is conveniently not bring up this stat. Arizona laid and egg the 2nd half of the season and has no one to blame but themselves if they don't make it, and its dumb that ESPN will make it out to be the crime of the century if they don't make it.

[BiggieXU]

I'd have to go Arizona over Creighton. Creighton has shown no ability to beat any team that will be a 10 seed or better. AZ pretty much only lost to good teams and beat KS and the Zags. Up until I actually looked at their schedule, I thought there was no way AZ should get in, but have since changed my mind. Creighton and St Mary's haven't done enough, in my mind.
I think it could go either way. I just remember hearing people say that the committee should take AZs streak of appearances into consideration. That and all the talk of the "eye" test is just not what I think the tourney is all about.

[Kahns Krazy]

I have heard many people over the past week say Creighton will not make the tourney. If that is the case is Dayton a lock to make it?

Here is how they match up.

Head to head = Creighton by 19
Last 10 = Creighton 9-1 Dayton 5-5
League finish = Creighton 1st Dayton 3rd
V.S. Top 50 = Creighton 2-3 Dayton 3-2
RPI = Creighton 37 Dayton 27
SOS = Creighton 112 Dayton 90

Looks close and could go either way but that head to head could bite Dayton.

This is getting sillier and sillier. Head to head - not considered. League finish - not considered. Why not throw number of letters in the team name to bolster your argument?

The difference between 27 in the RPI and 37 is enormous.
Are you saying that based on your analysis, Creighton deserves to go ahead of Dayton?

[The Artist]

and ESPN is conveniently not bring up this stat. Arizona laid and egg the 2nd half of the season and has no one to blame but themselves if they don't make it, and its dumb that ESPN will make it out to be the crime of the century if they don't make it.

Can't you say the same for Creighton? I don't feel bad for any of these teams at all if they don't make it, especially if people start whining for them.

If you want to make the tournament, win games. Creighton has done absolutely NOTHING to show me that they deserve to be in the tourney. If you think Arizona doesn't deserve to be in, I have no real problem with that, but do not give me Creighton as the alternate.

What's next, UMASS?

[Masterofreality]

At least Creighton won their regular season league.

[vee4xu]

Dookane losing yesterday put a serious crimp in my hopes that ud would be left out of the NCAA. I think that it will be interesting, but they will probably get in. Though for a couple of reasons they should not. First, they did not win either the A-10 regular season or A-10 crowns. Also, they play such an easy home OOC schedule that it distorts their record. The only quality wins on their resume is against X and Marquette. Neither team is knocking them dead the last 1/4 of the season, so those wins are less impressive today than they were six weeks ago. The cherry atop this sundae is ud's record over the past 10 games, which is 5-5.

Let's put it this way, if X had the same resume as ud, I'd be sweating it out today. However, I think the NCAA committee will come to the rescue of all those ud fans ready to jump off a bridge.

[The Artist]

Dookane losing yesterday put a serious crimp in my hopes that ud would be left out of the NCAA. I think that it will be interesting, but they will probably get in. Though for a couple of reasons they should not. First, they did not win either the A-10 regular season or A-10 crowns. Also, they play such an easy home OOC schedule that it distorts their record. The only quality wins on their resume is against X and Marquette. Neither team is knocking them dead the last 1/4 of the season, so those wins are less impressive today than they were six weeks ago. The cherry atop this sundae is ud's record over the past 10 games, which is 5-5.

Let's put it this way, if X had the same resume as ud, I'd be sweating it out today. However, I think the NCAA committee will come to the rescue of all those ud fans ready to jump off a bridge.

I agree, and without the win over us, they're out.

[xsteve1]

Question about UD is if they do make it can they do better than their last time in against DePaul in '04. Gawd was that awful.

[jdm2000]

Gottlieb said on ESPN2 not to be surprised if Dayton is left out. Ouch.

[Steve A]

Gottlieb said on ESPN2 not to be surprised if Dayton is left out. Ouch.

Beat me to it, udpride is freaking out right now.

[Juice]

Dookane losing yesterday put a serious crimp in my hopes that ud would be left out of the NCAA. I think that it will be interesting, but they will probably get in. Though for a couple of reasons they should not. First, they did not win either the A-10 regular season or A-10 crowns. Also, they play such an easy home OOC schedule that it distorts their record. The only quality wins on their resume is against X and Marquette. Neither team is knocking them dead the last 1/4 of the season, so those wins are less impressive today than they were six weeks ago. The cherry atop this sundae is ud's record over the past 10 games, which is 5-5.

Let's put it this way, if X had the same resume as ud, I'd be sweating it out today. However, I think the NCAA committee will come to the rescue of all those ud fans ready to jump off a bridge.

I agree with what you said but Marquette is struggling because James is injured. UD did beat them at full strength and I think the committee will recognize that much like they are going to consider the Patty Mills injury or anything else like that.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Dookane losing yesterday put a serious crimp in my hopes that ud would be left out of the NCAA. I think that it will be interesting, but they will probably get in. Though for a couple of reasons they should not. First, they did not win either the A-10 regular season or A-10 crowns. Also, they play such an easy home OOC schedule that it distorts their record. The only quality wins on their resume is against X and Marquette. Neither team is knocking them dead the last 1/4 of the season, so those wins are less impressive today than they were six weeks ago. The cherry atop this sundae is ud's record over the past 10 games, which is 5-5.

Let's put it this way, if X had the same resume as ud, I'd be sweating it out today. However, I think the NCAA committee will come to the rescue of all those ud fans ready to jump off a bridge.

Temple is also a quality win. And for a lot of the season I believe George Mason was a top 50 win.

I think UD is in with a 9/10 seed.

[xuab]

Dow just posted his last bracket and has UD out. I still think they are in, but.... (I know logic says I should want them in for the league. I'm not feeling very logical at the moment though.)

[jdm2000]

I think they're in--and that Jay Bilas will go on a rant against them like he did against X in 2007.

[xsteve1]

I'm starting to get the feeling UD is out with all these upsets. That weak OOC may come back to bite them.

[Masterofreality]

All 3 major pundits- Palm, Lunardi and Gary Parrish all have udump in, .......barely as an 11 seed.

Talk about dancing on the edge of the cliff. There are a few guys on udump pride that are ready to jump off of it.

[vee4xu]

Mississippi State may have put the last nail in ud's coffin. We'll see very soon.