Xpectations
02-18-2009, 11:09 AM
I wrote this last night in response to some UC fans over on the MM board. I thought I'd post it here in case anyone was interested ...
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Look, there is no way this year's Big East is the best conference ever. It's not even the best conference this season.
The problem is this ... The Big East is often perceived and defined by the top of the conference. The top of the conference is very, very good – excellent, in fact.
Combine that with the sheer size of the conference (it is the largest ever, with 16 teams) and there are a greater than typical number of very good teams.
On the flip-side, you never hear anyone refer to the Big East as that conference with Rutgers, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Providence, South Florida and DePaul. It’s as though those teams don’t even exist during the conversation, especially when you hear people say how brutal Big East conference play is game in and game out.
It’s as though the Big East is thought of as a somewhat normal-sized, 8-team conference – a conference consisting only of UConn, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova and West Virginia. And if that indeed were an 8-team conference, then it would be the best this year, and at least in the conversation for best conference ever.
However, an 8-team conference of Rutgers, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, St. John’s, Providence, South Florida, Notre Dame and DePaul would not be considered a great conference – not even close. That conference would almost assuredly be considered around the 14th best conference – well after the six BCS conferences, plus the Mountain West, A-10, CUSA, MVC, Horizon League, WAC and West Coast conferences.
That’s a pretty mediocre set of 8 teams – and hardly world beaters.
Yet instead of people wondering if any BCS conference in history has ever had 8 such mediocre/forgettable teams, they are left pondering whether a BCS conference has ever had such 8 high caliber teams – and then extrapolating that notion to the title of “Best Conference Ever.”
There’s a reason that the ACC and Big Ten are rated higher than the Big East in every system out there (RPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy, etc.). It’s because there isn’t the MASSIVE drop-off from the top half of the conference to the bottom half.
There’s a reason that as of last week, many bracketologists had 8 (of 12) ACC teams and 7 (of 11) Big Ten teams going to the Dance as of that moment, versus half of the Big East.
Think about it; you can quickly go through the exercise of splitting the 12-team ACC into two halves and then matching their top half with the top half of the Big East, and doing the same with the bottom halves. Do you think North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Duke, Miami and Clemson would compete with the top 8 teams in the Big East? You bet your a$$ they would.
Do you think the worst half of the ACC, let’s say Maryland, Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and North Carolina State could compete with the worst 8 Big East teams? Compete? … Those teams would more often wipe the floor with the bottom half of the Big East. Seriously, be honest with yourself and think about it.
I mean, come on; look at Providence. They are almost assuredly going to finish .500, and likely 10-8 in conference play this year. I’ve seen Providence play multiple times this season and I can assure you there have been MANY conferences in history where this year’s Providence team wouldn’t come close to finishing above .500.
Finally, from an XU perspective, Xavier would still be highly competitive in the Big East and would compete for the top. That said, no one team is going to be an overwhelming favorite because of the sheer number of very good teams. Xavier certainly wouldn’t be the favorite. But Xavier would be right there in the mix each year. They sure as hell wouldn’t be finishing with 5 or 6 wins in conference like you hear some idiot UC fans say.
People who believe otherwise are dreaming. They might wish that wasn’t the case, but wishing it and wanting it doesn’t make it so.
Look, the Big East is clearly much better than the A-10. Anyone who wants to argue that is insane. It isn’t even close.
Again though, what does it buy you if you’re Xavier? We’ve proven we can still play a top-tier schedule on par with any BCS team. We’ve proven we can get more exposure than most BCS teams (every game on television, and not ESPN 360, and over half our games on national television). Where’s the big advantage – at least when it comes to being Xavier? You can still have deep runs; just ask Memphis, Xavier, Davidson and Gonzaga.
Take your Best Conference Ever talk back to your board. They might actually believe it there – not because it’s true, but because they want to believe it is true.
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Look, there is no way this year's Big East is the best conference ever. It's not even the best conference this season.
The problem is this ... The Big East is often perceived and defined by the top of the conference. The top of the conference is very, very good – excellent, in fact.
Combine that with the sheer size of the conference (it is the largest ever, with 16 teams) and there are a greater than typical number of very good teams.
On the flip-side, you never hear anyone refer to the Big East as that conference with Rutgers, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Providence, South Florida and DePaul. It’s as though those teams don’t even exist during the conversation, especially when you hear people say how brutal Big East conference play is game in and game out.
It’s as though the Big East is thought of as a somewhat normal-sized, 8-team conference – a conference consisting only of UConn, Pitt, Syracuse, Louisville, Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova and West Virginia. And if that indeed were an 8-team conference, then it would be the best this year, and at least in the conversation for best conference ever.
However, an 8-team conference of Rutgers, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, St. John’s, Providence, South Florida, Notre Dame and DePaul would not be considered a great conference – not even close. That conference would almost assuredly be considered around the 14th best conference – well after the six BCS conferences, plus the Mountain West, A-10, CUSA, MVC, Horizon League, WAC and West Coast conferences.
That’s a pretty mediocre set of 8 teams – and hardly world beaters.
Yet instead of people wondering if any BCS conference in history has ever had 8 such mediocre/forgettable teams, they are left pondering whether a BCS conference has ever had such 8 high caliber teams – and then extrapolating that notion to the title of “Best Conference Ever.”
There’s a reason that the ACC and Big Ten are rated higher than the Big East in every system out there (RPI, Sagarin, Pomeroy, etc.). It’s because there isn’t the MASSIVE drop-off from the top half of the conference to the bottom half.
There’s a reason that as of last week, many bracketologists had 8 (of 12) ACC teams and 7 (of 11) Big Ten teams going to the Dance as of that moment, versus half of the Big East.
Think about it; you can quickly go through the exercise of splitting the 12-team ACC into two halves and then matching their top half with the top half of the Big East, and doing the same with the bottom halves. Do you think North Carolina, Wake Forest, Florida State, Duke, Miami and Clemson would compete with the top 8 teams in the Big East? You bet your a$$ they would.
Do you think the worst half of the ACC, let’s say Maryland, Virginia, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and North Carolina State could compete with the worst 8 Big East teams? Compete? … Those teams would more often wipe the floor with the bottom half of the Big East. Seriously, be honest with yourself and think about it.
I mean, come on; look at Providence. They are almost assuredly going to finish .500, and likely 10-8 in conference play this year. I’ve seen Providence play multiple times this season and I can assure you there have been MANY conferences in history where this year’s Providence team wouldn’t come close to finishing above .500.
Finally, from an XU perspective, Xavier would still be highly competitive in the Big East and would compete for the top. That said, no one team is going to be an overwhelming favorite because of the sheer number of very good teams. Xavier certainly wouldn’t be the favorite. But Xavier would be right there in the mix each year. They sure as hell wouldn’t be finishing with 5 or 6 wins in conference like you hear some idiot UC fans say.
People who believe otherwise are dreaming. They might wish that wasn’t the case, but wishing it and wanting it doesn’t make it so.
Look, the Big East is clearly much better than the A-10. Anyone who wants to argue that is insane. It isn’t even close.
Again though, what does it buy you if you’re Xavier? We’ve proven we can still play a top-tier schedule on par with any BCS team. We’ve proven we can get more exposure than most BCS teams (every game on television, and not ESPN 360, and over half our games on national television). Where’s the big advantage – at least when it comes to being Xavier? You can still have deep runs; just ask Memphis, Xavier, Davidson and Gonzaga.
Take your Best Conference Ever talk back to your board. They might actually believe it there – not because it’s true, but because they want to believe it is true.