Palin choice to cost McCain election?

[jdm2000]

Some interesting polling data in this one. http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/11/02/poll.one.party/index.html

I'm not surprised about the percentage of folks saying she doesn't have the qualities of a president and that they have unfavorable ratings of her. But it looks like they actually asked the question of who you would vote for if there were no VP nominee, and Palin is shaving a couple of points off of McCain's total.

If McCain loses (which I don't think is a foregone conclusion), will this choice go down as the prime (or almost the prime) reason?

Even though I hear all the pundits talk about her and what she's going to be doing from here on out, is Palin really a viable candidate for the leading GOPer in the next election cycle if McCain loses?

[GuyFawkes38]

I don't buy the argument that Palin lost the election for McCain (or had even a negative effect on him). Even before McCain's VP pick, Las Vegas gave a big edge towards Obama.

What I suspect is happening is that a lot of people really like McCain as a person. But they want change and they have to rationalize voting against him. So Palin is an easy target (especially for old people who are jealous of her youth and fertility).

[drudy23]

Any Republican on the ticket in 2008 would have a tough time winning. I don't consider myself either a Dem or a Rep...but I usually find myself leaning 60/40 towards Rep.

In saying that, I just want the next President to be different. Change it up...be creative...do something different...take a chance. Change the fundamental role of being a politician....restore faith in voters that you'll have an impact as a leader...restore faith in voters that voting for what they think you will do is actually done.

Greed, big money, dishonesty, and questionable ethics has changed this country the last 10-20 years. Messing up and saying "you're sorry" has become too easy. Whoever wins, I just hope they restore some dignity and honesty back to the country.

[Kahns Krazy]

I think the untimely stock market plunge has more to do with McCain losing than the Palin pick.

[Firehose]

I don't feel like Palin cost McCain the election, but I think that choosing her did nothing to help him win. I think it was an obvious grab at women voters and one that ultimately backfired once she started acting (whether genuinely or under pressure from an outside party) completely idiotic. I want my elected officials to be smarter than me, to make decisions that I but for the grace of God do not have to make, and I want those decisions to be based on reason and Realpolitik, not whim.

I believe that Sarah Palin is a better leader than many people give her credit for, but I do not believe that she is what America needs in office. It is a phenomenon of the 21st century that people want someone in office who they could have a beer with, an "average Joe", but as someone blessed enough to have had the opportunity to study politics both in theory and in practice, I want an executive articulate enough to make and defend their case against any rhetoric used against them, who is able to effectively communicate and make executive decisions rationally.

As an aside... when Charles Barkley went on Larry King Live and was talking about his desire to run for Governor of Alabama, Ben Stein was the other guest. When asked about the state of the economy, Barkley wisely deferred to Stein, admitting that he did not know as much as the other man and seeking his insight. That is what I want in a leader - someone who is brave enough to admit that they do not have all the answers but seeks the guidance they need to best affect policy.

tl;dr: Palin did not tank McCain and I don't like stupid people at the heights of power.

[drudy23]

If Barkley ran for Alabama governor tomorrow, he'd win in a landslide.

As much as I realize there are a lot of things that he has no clue on...he eliminates the white elephant in the room. He'll say whatever is on his mind. Political correctness is one of the things that has ruined this country...Barkely doesn't play that card. He says it like it is...and is pretty right on with issues of race, poverty, and education.

He'll say whatever every one of us is thinking, but won't say, for fear of being labeled something.

It's actually kind of scary that I would actually vote for Charles Barkely (and I would), but this type of personality is the kind of leader we need.

[Juice]

I dont know if I saw this quote from Barkley on this board or somewhere else, but it is pretty good. He is talking about running for governor:


When asked if he was serious, the former Philadelphia 76er said, "I am, I can't screw up Alabama."

He added that his native state could only improve. "We are number 48 in everything and Arkansas and Mississippi aren't going anywhere," Barkley said.

[XU 87]

I think the untimely stock market plunge has more to do with McCain losing than the Palin pick.

Before the September financial crisis, McCain was up by about 2-5 points, depending on the poll. Shortly after the crisis hit, McCain was down 2-5 points.

Obama is one of the luckier politicians in recent memory. When he ran for the Senate, his first opponent dropped out due to a sex scandal. Obama eventually ran against Alan Keyes, who is a little goofy and is not even from Illinois. And they were running for an open Senate seat- the Republican incumbent, Peter Fitzgerald, decided not to run again after only one term. How often does that happen?

Then when Obam's campaign is starting to falter and McCain is gaining strength, along comes the September/October financial crisis.

[Firehose]

this type of personality is the kind of leader we need.

Barkley for President, 2020?

[XU 87]

He'll say whatever every one of us is thinking, but won't say, for fear of being labeled something.

It's actually kind of scary that I would actually vote for Charles Barkely (and I would), but this type of personality is the kind of leader we need.


If we have anyone on the board from Minnesota, what did you think of Governor Jesse Ventura?

[DC Muskie]

Before the September financial crisis, McCain was up by about 2-5 points, depending on the poll. Shortly after the crisis hit, McCain was down 2-5 points.

Obama is one of the luckier politicians in recent memory. When he ran for the Senate, his first opponent dropped out due to a sex scandal. Obama eventually ran against Alan Keyes, who is a little goofy and is not even from Illinois. And they were running for an open Senate seat- the Republican incumbent, Peter Fitzgerald, decided not to run again after only one term. How often does that happen?

Then when Obam's campaign is starting to falter and McCain is gaining strength, along comes the September/October financial crisis.

Obama's campaign was faltering? When? When exactly was McCain's campaign gaining strength?

Everyone gets a bump from their respective convention. Palin helped that bump tremendously. Usually campaigns go to a level just off their pre-convention bump.

The first rule in politics is to secure your base. Palin seemed to secure every reliable red state. However she will not help take any 2004 blue state, and has yet to secure any toss up state like Ohio, Florida and Missouri. The number of syndicated conversative columnists that have voiced their displeasure with her selection is staggering. It's unheard of actually.

So while I don't think Palin has hurt McCain, she certainly hasn't helped.

[Kahns Krazy]

Faltering is code for "racist".

[Stonebreaker]

Palin is the reason why McCain is even close in the polls. She fired up the base in a huge way. I've never seen so much excitement as the week following her announcement. Her party loves her, while conservatives have issue w/ McCain going across the aisle a bit too much.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Palin is the reason why McCain is even close in the polls. She fired up the base in a huge way. I've never seen so much excitement as the week following her announcement. Her party loves her, while conservatives have issue w/ McCain going across the aisle a bit too much.

Her party may love her, but it didn't really matter who McCain chose as his VP candidate as they would vote for him anyway. McCain chose Palin to get the female Clinton voters and the undecided independent vote, but it doesn't appear to have worked. I don't think Palin is the reason he won't win (as others have said, the economic crisis has had a bigger effect), but it certainly did not help at all.

[Stonebreaker]

I have no idea, I just know that every conservative I know is much bigger on Palin than McCain. She is the true conservative. It's McCain that has crossed party lines to 'reach out' to the left. She is there to attract the youth, and women as well.
Being at the rally last nite, I assure you....she is a force to reckon with. If they don't win, it's gonna come down to Palin vs Obama in 4 years.

[jdm2000]

Her party may love her, but it didn't really matter who McCain chose as his VP candidate as they would vote for him anyway. McCain chose Palin to get the female Clinton voters and the undecided independent vote, but it doesn't appear to have worked. I don't think Palin is the reason he won't win (as others have said, the economic crisis has had a bigger effect), but it certainly did not help at all.

I'm going to agree with Stoney and disagree with you on this one, Thrillhouse. Palin was a pick for the base, pure and simple (and most pundits I've read seem to agree). They were never completely sold on the Original Maverick, whose greatest strength was always with moderates and independents. She is so far to the right of him on most issues, it's hard to imagine her being the one on the ticket to appeal to independents. I think there may have been a thought that some Hillary voters might go for her because she is female, but her politics are so far from Hillary that it probably did more to insult those voters than to attract them.

I don't have the polling handy, but I think she has definitely cost McCain votes with independents. Earlier in the year, I'm pretty sure he was outpolling Obama with independents, but with Palin, he's driven a lot of independents away.

*By the way, I concur that the economy has had the bigger effect. But Palin didn't help.

[jdm2000]

I have no idea, I just know that every conservative I know is much bigger on Palin than McCain. She is the true conservative. It's McCain that has crossed party lines to 'reach out' to the left. She is there to attract the youth, and women as well.
Being at the rally last nite, I assure you....she is a force to reckon with. If they don't win, it's gonna come down to Palin vs Obama in 4 years.

She's going to be around one way or the other. I think her biggest problem will be geographical--keeping exposure and getting good experience while being the governor of Alaska. I would think the ideal spot for her would be the Senate. Maybe Stevens will pull out the victory then resign, and Palin will win the special election.

[Stonebreaker]

I agree. I think she'll be the next senator in Alaska. Either way, she's the next GOP candidate, hands down.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I'm going to agree with Stoney and disagree with you on this one, Thrillhouse. Palin was a pick for the base, pure and simple (and most pundits I've read seem to agree). They were never completely sold on the Original Maverick, whose greatest strength was always with moderates and independents. She is so far to the right of him on most issues, it's hard to imagine her being the one on the ticket to appeal to independents. I think there may have been a thought that some Hillary voters might go for her because she is female, but her politics are so far from Hillary that it probably did more to insult those voters than to attract them.

I don't have the polling handy, but I think she has definitely cost McCain votes with independents. Earlier in the year, I'm pretty sure he was outpolling Obama with independents, but with Palin, he's driven a lot of independents away.

*By the way, I concur that the economy has had the bigger effect. But Palin didn't help.

On 2nd thought I will agree the Palin pick wasn't for the independents, but still think it was a poorly conceived attempt to get the disgruntled Hillary supporters. I feel that the McCain camp thought the Hillary supporters were so angry about the primary results that they would be more likely to gravitate towards the McCain camp with the Palin pick. But really that isn't what is costing McCain since those Hillary supporters more than likely would have eventually calmed down and gone for Obama anyway no matter who McCain chose.

Out of all the big name VP candidate names that were tossed around, I don't think independents would have been big fans of any of them but I think Palin was the worst possible choice to try to get those swing votes. Of course this is all speculation from me, unlike the pundits on TV I will freely admit that I am no political expert, and all of this talk could be for not if McCain actually pulls it off somehow.

[Stonebreaker]

Good post Thrill.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Good post Thrill.

Thanks, that was really just me thinking aloud there so I wasn't really sure how that would come off to others. Although I have already made my decision on who to vote for, I am trying to analyze it as neutrally and rationally as possible. On facebook, my friends on both sides of this election, are driving me insane with their political status updates. This has been a very intriguing and annoying election. I can't wait for it to be done because I am exhausted.

[jdm2000]

Best VP pick for getting independents woudl have been Lieberman, but the conservative base would never go for it. That would have been a gutsy pick.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Best VP pick for getting independents woudl have been Lieberman, but the conservative base would never go for it. That would have been a gutsy pick.

yeah, when I made that last post I actually thought Droopy Dog Lieberman would have been the only Veep the independents might go for, but you are right, the conservative base would have been ticked and overall it wouldn't have gone over very well considering he was on the Gore ticket in 2000.

[Juice]

yeah, when I made that last post I actually thought Droopy Dog Lieberman would have been the only Veep the independents might go for, but you are right, the conservative base would have been ticked and overall it wouldn't have gone over very well considering he was on the Gore ticket in 2000.

I read an article a couple weeks ago which was advising McCain to name part of his cabinet before election day so the voters knew what he had planned. This writer said that McCain should name Guiliani as his Attorney General, Romney as his Secretary of the Treasury, and Lieberman as his Secretary of State.

I think it was a pretty good idea in concept and also based on who he named for what positions.

[Strange Brew]

Hey, did anyone else notice that Palin was just cleared in the trumped up Troopergate? Wow, better late than never. I'm still wondering when Dodd and Frank will be investigated for their role in the failure of Fannie and Freddie. Oh well, I guess it's ok because they meant well.

[American X]

I'm still wondering when Dodd and Frank will be investigated for their role in the failure of Fannie and Freddie. Oh well, I guess it's ok because they meant well.

I hope some reporter, media outlet, or politician keeps demanding accountability from Dodd and Frank until the sun goes cold.

[Strange Brew]

I hope some reporter, media outlet, or politician keeps demanding accountability from Dodd and Frank until the sun goes cold.

It won't happen and don't worry about the sun, just keep breathing out CO2 and we'll all keep the planet warm enough for years to come. :D

[DC Muskie]

Either way, she's the next GOP candidate, hands down.

A lot can happen in four years.

[DC Muskie]

Best VP pick for getting independents woudl have been Lieberman, but the conservative base would never go for it. That would have been a gutsy pick.

If McCain had picked Joe the Senator, he would have lost even more.

[Emp]

Palin is the reason why McCain is even close in the polls. She fired up the base in a huge way. I've never seen so much excitement as the week following her announcement. Her party loves her, while conservatives have issue w/ McCain going across the aisle a bit too much.

Hanging with the base way too much Stone guy.

Motivating the base was never going to win it for McCain. Might loosen a few mil in campaign dollars. He had to find a way to convert the swing voters to actually win. By any polling standards, Palin has been a disaster among that group: on the merits of her conspicuous lack of qualifications,and as an indicator of both his judgment and desperation.

Deciding factor? of course not. Substantial contributing factor, yes.