Gambling for January 15

[Michigan Muskie]

Attached is today's breakdown of games using the current line at Caesar's and the Sagarin predictor. It is in text format. Tried to cut and paste but it doesn't look right.

In brief, the following are the best bets of the day according to the sheet:

Miami +2 @ Boston College
New Mexico -3 vs. TCU
Notre Dame -12 vs. Cincinnati
Clemon -11.5 vs. NC State

Each of these four games is forecasted to beat the posted spread by at least 4 points. I'll repost after the games are over to test the accuracy of this system.

[Billy]

Attached is today's breakdown of games using the current line at Caesar's and the Sagarin predictor. It is in text format. Tried to cut and paste but it doesn't look right.

In brief, the following are the best bets of the day according to the sheet:

Miami +2 @ Boston College
New Mexico -3 vs. TCU
Notre Dame -12 vs. Cincinnati
Clemon -11.5 vs. NC State

Each of these four games is forecasted to beat the posted spread by at least 4 points. I'll repost after the games are over to test the accuracy of this system.

Not to be a fusspot, but can you possibly do this using the RPI? You know, The finest college basketball formula in all the land!!!

[Michigan Muskie]

Not to be a fusspot, but can you possibly do this using the RPI? You know, The finest college basketball formula in all the land!!!

All joking aside, I'd love to see these games broken down exactly the same way using the Sagarin, RPI, Power Ratings, KenPorn, and any other mathematical rating system that assigns a value or predictor to every team. Not only could we identify which games are considered good bets across the board, but we could also thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of each system after a season of results.

Too bad it would take many many hours to input that data each day.

[Billy]

All joking aside, I'd love to see these games broken down exactly the same way using the Sagarin, RPI, Power Ratings, KenPorn, and any other mathematical rating system that assigns a value or predictor to every team. Not only could we identify which games are considered good bets across the board, but we could also thoroughly analyze the effectiveness of each system after a season of results.

Too bad it would take many many hours to input that data each day.


Sagarin's Predictor is what I use...and I know that's what GoMuskies uses. The difference in those numbers (along with application of the home court factor) is intended as a point spread. Unless there's an injury, he's never more than maybe 3-5 points off of what Vegas is going with.

Now, you can look at that and say "That's really no help then, I'll could just look at Covers or Mandalay"...and you might be right. Basketball is such a matchup driven thing, IMO. It's like football in that way.

I also like Pomeroy's (or as you call it, KenPorn) ratings as well. I think he has some sound concepts that are original...but because it's based on Pythagorian winning %, I don't think there's a way to apply "point spread" to the games. At least, not as far as I know.

If you're just talking about predicting games straight up, then I'm not sure where something like that would be charted...but I could see where that could be of use.

[chico]

Billy's right - Sagarin's probably the best out there. Pomeroy's "predictions" are spotty. There are times when Sagarin and Vegas differ, but not to often. It would be interesting to see who's more accurate. My guess is Vegas, but even they aren't foolproof.

The key is using any local knowledge you have to your advantage. It doesn't hurt knowing a lot about the A-10, especially since it usually isn't one of the conferences getting a lot of play.

[Billy]

Billy's right - Sagarin's probably the best out there.
The key is using any local knowledge you have to your advantage. It doesn't hurt knowing a lot about the A-10, especially since it usually isn't one of the conferences getting a lot of play.

Yea, that's solid advice. It's so good, I'm positiving it.

The advantageous thing about college hoops is the number of teams. There isn't a handicapper out there that can follow all of them with the necessary detail...and that's where a gambler can exploit an advantage.

The smaller conferences also get less action, and so they are far more prone to nonsensical line shifts.

[Michigan Muskie]

You have to admit that when you see the word KENPOM in lower case it looks like KenPorn. It always has.

Obviously, you should leverage any possible advantage in the business of sports wagering. Sometimes timing is an advantage. For instance, the day before the Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills game in week 16 in Cleveland, there were winter storm warnings, high wind warnings, your team really sucks advisories, etc....but the over/under total remained at 40. If you recall, that game featured snow and wind to the point of very reduced visiblity and resulted in an 8-0 final score.

They say there is no such thing as easy money, but in that case, I have to disagree.

[Billy]

You have to admit that when you see the word KENPOM in lower case it looks like KenPorn. It always has.

Obviously, you should leverage any possible advantage in the business of sports wagering. Sometimes timing is an advantage. For instance, the day before the Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills game in week 16 in Cleveland, there were winter storm warnings, high wind warnings, your team really sucks advisories, etc....but the over/under total remained at 40. If you recall, that game featured snow and wind to the point of very reduced visiblity and resulted in an 8-0 final score.

They say there is no such thing as easy money, but in that case, I have to disagree.

Yea, catching unders on football is a good way to get rich. There were a couple of weeks of NFL this year where almost every game played East of the Mississippi went under because of weather.

They'd rather have the action though, I suppose. In baseball, you usually can't get a total on games at Wrigley until right before the game for this reason.