2024 vs 2025

[MHettel]

With the news of Traore's injury, I'm on a ledge. This roster was talented, skilled, experienced and deep. I viewed this team as having a real shot at getting us to the Final Four.

Last years team was ...bad. The year before we overachieved and made a Sweet 16. the prior 4 years under Steele were kinda embarrassing and forgettable. but this year we were going to move past all of that. This year was going to be shades of the last couple Mack years, where we are entrenched in the top 15 and in line for a protected seed.

But the Traore injury has my pendulum probably swung way to far into negative territory. i need to calibrate this team by comparing it to what we saw last year.

First of all, last year was a total disappointment....but we stayed on the bubble through late February. I point most of the failure to our unintended reliance on the 3 Euro guys, who were wholly unprepared to contribute at this level. Lets assume that having Free and Hunter probably gets us 4-5 more wins (the 2 non-con losses, plus at least 2 more BE games). So it was likely a tourney team, aside from the injuries.

So lets subtract 3 Euros and add Hunter and Free. Big upgrade. Pretty much better everywhere.

Now lets just add a year of additional experience for McKnight. he be a little better. he was already good. You dont often see a Junior that has started 3 years make a huge jump as a Senior. I think he started a little slow last year and played really well late. i expect a full year of that elevated play.

Lets fast forward one year for Swain and Green. I see Swain as a "posey like" defensive disruptor and above the rim wing player. He wont require the ball in his hands or plays called for him, but he will be present offensively. Big improvement expected from him. Similarly, I think Green will be better and will shoot near 40% from 3. He's a specialist, and will be an effective decoy as well. So sizeable upgrade for these 2 guys.

Now, swap out Quincy and Dez for Maddux, Foster, and Conwell. This is a tough one. Quincy was pretty great, and really Dez was as well. But not in the same way. Tough to replace that duo. and if it was any 2 of the three new guys I'd probably say we lose that trade. But the "3 for 2" nature of this change is what tips the scales for me. We certainly have more shooting now, and more firepower from the wing. Depth here for sure.

The last swap out here is Ousman and Nzeh for Hugley. This one is tougher. Not because last years guys are better players, but because they offer something this team needs. Hugley is a plodding, scoring post big. Ousman or Nzeh would actually be a better fit on this team. Last year, unfortunately, Abou was forced to have a much bigger role offensively than what would be ideal. On this team, he'd be playing that role that was set for Traore, which is defense, defense, defense. And without that role being filled, this team has a glaring weakness.

All told, I'm thinking this team will be very, very slightly better than what last years team would have been with a healthy Free and Hunter. i thinking 6-9 seed in the dance and maybe one and done. Sweet 16 would exceed my expectations.

[Jumpin_Jamal_Forever]

Don't jump just yet. Traore is certainly a loss. A big one.

I agree with much of your analysis but here is another way to look at our team going forward.

Consider that we are swapping out the Euros for Hunter, Free and Swain. That is a huge positive change. Yes, we lost Quincy and Dez. Last year we had effectively three guards (Mcknight included). Green, overall, did not play a significant role, the Providence game notwithstanding. With the expected growth of Green and the return of McKnight (who I think is a B.E. caliber) we have five guards this year. While I have not seen Foster, Maddux nor Conwell play, their resumes are very strong, and people close to the program rave about their play. If the new transfers play as expected, I think we are in a better position this year even with the loss of Dez and Quincy.

That leaves the "5" position. We had Traore and Hugley replacing Abou. Unquestionably, we were way, way better off before the Traore injury. Without Traore, it is Hugley vs Abou. I wasn't a big fan of Abou's decision making. I don't know what to expect from Hugley. At this point, for me, it is a wash and low post performance, offensively and defensively, is a huge question mark.

We clearly lost capability when we lost Traore. Will we gain more with the frontcourt and backcourt trade-offs than we lose in the middle? That's the big question. I believe we will. Even if we aren't Final Four material, I am looking very much forward to a better year this year.

I will, however, join you on the ledge if we have any more season-ending injuries. The last couple of years have been so frustrating.

[MHettel]

Don't jump just yet. Traore is certainly a loss. A big one.

I agree with much of your analysis but here is another way to look at our team going forward.

Consider that we are swapping out the Euros for Hunter, Free and Swain. That is a huge positive change. Yes, we lost Quincy and Dez. Last year we had effectively three guards (Mcknight included). Green, overall, did not play a significant role, the Providence game notwithstanding. With the expected growth of Green and the return of McKnight (who I think is a B.E. caliber) we have five guards this year. While I have not seen Foster, Maddux nor Conwell play, their resumes are very strong, and people close to the program rave about their play. If the new transfers play as expected, I think we are in a better position this year even with the loss of Dez and Quincy.

That leaves the "5" position. We had Traore and Hugley replacing Abou. Unquestionably, we were way, way better off before the Traore injury. Without Traore, it is Hugley vs Abou. I wasn't a big fan of Abou's decision making. I don't know what to expect from Hugley. At this point, for me, it is a wash and low post performance, offensively and defensively, is a huge question mark.

We clearly lost capability when we lost Traore. Will we gain more with the frontcourt and backcourt trade-offs than we lose in the middle? That's the big question. I believe we will. Even if we aren't Final Four material, I am looking very much forward to a better year this year.

I will, however, join you on the ledge if we have any more season-ending injuries. The last couple of years have been so frustrating.

I dont think we're really saying different things. Considering last year, we werent in the discussion on selection Sunday and this year I expect us to be safely in as a 6-9 seed, I really already made all of the adjustments you are considering.

Hugley needs to be "the guy" up[ front. We need that rim protector and its NOT going to be Freemantle. And Hunter, while I love his defensive versatility, cant defend a 5 at his size. Frankly, i dont think Hugley can do it either. And we dont have some young big guy waiting in the wings.

This team has a huge weakness in interior defense, rim protection and offensive rebounding. We are VERY imperfect. But we have alot of strengths too. We will have to hope those strengths can overcome the weaknesses...and they can. to a point.

[Xville]

Call me crazy but I don’t think we need to be setting ceilings for a team we haven’t even seen play yet. Traore is a big loss, for sure but who is to say that hugley doesn’t step up or free/hunter etc? We may not have the best interior defense who knows, but we shall see, and even if we don’t, bama made a final four playing zero d last year. Our offense should be absolutely sick.

[Xuperman]

I know the pre season buzz on Traore was confirmed by Coach Miller. However, he will not be able to substantiate that "buzz" this year....and it's always possible that he could have disappointed.

That said....if ZFree or Hugley gets in any significant injury situation.... BEast play gets very dicey.

[Xville]

Offensively, I don't see this team having any kind of a problem from the inside or the outside. Hugley is a very capable low post threat inside, and from what I have seen, is a very good and willing passer out of the post. If he is in shape and motivated (which by all accounts he is), then he will be better than anything we had in the post last year. If we get 21-22 Hugley, we are in for a treat.

[drudy23]

Can we get through 10 games before we hop on the ledge?

Just make the tournament.

[Xavier]

Offensively, I don't see this team having any kind of a problem from the inside or the outside. Hugley is a very capable low post threat inside, and from what I have seen, is a very good and willing passer out of the post..

I think this offense could be as good as the one a couple years ago. Can’t say defensively what they might look like, but feels like they will be able to score with anyone. If Swain makes a bigger jump than expected we will be in for a great year.

[drudy23]

We honestly shouldn't lose more than 2 non-conference games with the potential to go unbeaten (which likely won't happen).

We should be at least a 22+ win team which should be good enough. Anything less than that, I might be on the ledge.

I hope it's better than that, and I think we have the potential to be better than that, but that's realistic.

[Xville]

We honestly shouldn't lose more than 2 non-conference games with the potential to go unbeaten (which likely won't happen).

We should be at least a 22+ win team which should be good enough. Anything less than that, I might be on the ledge.

I hope it's better than that, and I think we have the potential to be better than that, but that's realistic.

Wake, UC, and the Fort Myers Tip are the obvious challenges. I could see three losses but it'd be disappointing. The ACC overall is pretty weak but Wake looks like a top 4 team in conference. We should know things about this team pretty quickly.

[drudy23]

UC will be very tough, and I could see a loss there. Our toughest game by far. I think we take care of business at home against Wake.

Those early season tournaments never go how you think, so could take an L there, but we have the best team in the field. TCU on the road is probably a coin flip, but again, X has the better team.

Cannot take an L in a buy game this year. That needs to stop moving forward except maybe once or twice a decade. We've already hit that mark.

[MHettel]

I think this offense could be as good as the one a couple years ago. Can’t say defensively what they might look like, but feels like they will be able to score with anyone. If Swain makes a bigger jump than expected we will be in for a great year.

I think the offense will be good, and maybe just as good as 2 years ago, but it will look different.

i think the passing 2 years ago is what made the offense great. we led the country in assists. and it was BALANCED. The inside passing between Free and Nunge was nifty. Colby, Boum and Kunk moved the ball well around the perimeter. Having 2 bigs that could score in the post made double teaming either difficult to risk, or deadly when the opponents did it.

Claude's assist rate as a Freshman in 21 minutes a game was 1.8. Hunter was only at 1.3 APG with the exact same minutes as Claude.

Throw out last years team. It was historically bad at passing out of the post, and who know how many entry passes got botched by the Euro butchers.

So this year, Free is a bright spot and obviously McKnight (again, I saying he will lead the BE in assists and be first team). The 3 transfer guards / wings really didnt post impressive assist numbers and they all played in up tempo situations (all teams ranked in top 50 for scoring).

Swain and Green didnt do much "assisting" last year, but again we were pretty saddled with an awful frontcourt and Dez was a one-on-one guy and there isnt alot of assists involved there.

last guy is Hugley (who is suddenly UBER critical and will play alot) and his career assist numbers are 1.1 in 23 Mpg.

So yeah. the offense is going to be good because of excellent outside shooting, and a ton of transition baskets and in spite of generally mediocre passers

Would love to be wrong on this, obviously If Miller gets 3-4 guys on this squad to average ~3 assist per game, then that twill be one hell of a coaching job.

[MHettel]

We honestly shouldn't lose more than 2 non-conference games with the potential to go unbeaten (which likely won't happen).

We should be at least a 22+ win team which should be good enough. Anything less than that, I might be on the ledge.

I hope it's better than that, and I think we have the potential to be better than that, but that's realistic.

I'm on the ledge because we have a glaring weakness. Rim protection was already our weakness, and even Traore was just decent at it. We had no rim protection behind Traore, which means now we have none. Interior defense is weakness #2, and again it was Traore that was filling that role with very little behind him. Offensive rebounding was a strength of Traore and we will miss him, but maybe Hugley and Free and Hunter can pick up the slack.

My fear is that it's very easy to gameplan against a team that has no interior defense and foul prone offensive minded players on the front line.

I love that fast break offense we are capable of, but made buckets by the opponents can really take that away.

And, we're going to rely heavily on the 3 this year. i expect that we'll lose at least 1 or 2 games that we should win just based on the ball not dropping that night.

[drudy23]

I'm on the ledge because we have a glaring weakness. Rim protection was already our weakness, and even Traore was just decent at it. We had no rim protection behind Traore, which means now we have none. Interior defense is weakness #2, and again it was Traore that was filling that role with very little behind him. Offensive rebounding was a strength of Traore and we will miss him, but maybe Hugley and Free and Hunter can pick up the slack.

My fear is that it's very easy to gameplan against a team that has no interior defense and foul prone offensive minded players on the front line.

I love that fast break offense we are capable of, but made buckets by the opponents can really take that away.

And, we're going to rely heavily on the 3 this year. i expect that we'll lose at least 1 or 2 games that we should win just based on the ball not dropping that night.

You're not wrong but no team outside of UConn is strong in every dimension. It's something that can be overcome with quality depth. Every team has weaknesses. This is where the brain on the sidelines matters. We now have a brain where 5 years prior it was relatively empty.

The roster last year simply wasn't good enough. End of story.

[Xville]

You're not wrong but no team outside of UConn is strong in every dimension. It's something that can be overcome with quality depth. Every team has weaknesses. This is where the brain on the sidelines matters. We now have a brain where 5 years prior it was relatively empty.

The roster last year simply wasn't good enough. End of story.

Yep agreed. If X can be like Bama and Illinois this year, they are going to be absolutely fine. Both of those teams were very limited defensively, especially in the paint and it didn't matter much. Just gotta put the biscuit in the basket enough.

[Xville]

Paul, who sees this team every single day, said the offensive flow and shooting is extremely impressive and enjoyable to watch. He also said even with Traore out, he still sees them in the 30-35 range on the defensive side.

For comparison purposes, as good as the team was two years ago, they still kinda sucked on the d side of the ball, 64 in kenpom. They were actually better on that side last year (45.)

I think this is just going to be a much more complete team than Sean has had since the return. ALL IN