xudash
08-26-2024, 03:06 PM
I'm trying to scratch out a better understanding of what things will look like as we continue down this high-octane road of law suits, teenagers making 6-digits - with some making 7-digits - to play a game at a university, and continuing conference realignment.
The underlying consensus on all of this among many is that you have to get to a "P2" seat or no worse than a "P4" seat for long term survival before it all settles in for good, whatever settling in for good means. You have to have football and you better be damn good at it, and/or otherwise capable of throwing in AAU status or other institutional strengths in order to get called up.
Well, getting called up from here where the B1G is concerned is problematic. There isn't one program in the Big 12 that warrants consideration for B1G membership, save possibly for Kansas, and I believe they would have already made it to that promised land if they were meant to make it at all. At this point, now behind USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, they are literally stuck in middle America with insufficient media value and a long, bad reputation in football, regardless of some of their recent success. I believe the same holds true for any Big 12 school dreaming of SEC membership.
There are a few or up to about 4 ACC schools that appear to be possible candidates for either the B1G or SEC, but the media distribution math would have to be worked out (i.e. uneven shares, most likely). Beyond that, ACC members are presently firmly locked into their "voluntary" GOR chains. They aren't going anywhere until Florida State's attorneys and one or two others force the issue legally.
With all that as a backdrop, consider this: within a couple of years, it is going to cost A LOT MORE - $60 million a year? - to run a high level college football program. I think there are many current P4 programs that may step back when this becomes apparent.
Consider the ramifications of the House v. NCAA settlement. The $2.8 billion deal to settle three federal antitrust lawsuits against the NCAA and power conferences also includes a groundbreaking plan to allow schools to share up to $21 million per year with their athletes as soon as 2025-26. Think about that for a minute. Imagine going into your existing Excel spreadsheet for your athletic department's income statement and adding a line in the amount of (up to) $21 million for revenue sharing with your athletes. Imagine doing that when you ARE NOT one of those 20 or so programs with stadiums that seat over 100,000 that operate at a surplus. Imagine doing that after you just added another new line for your share of settlement damages!
College football "drove the bus" when players weren't getting paid and football programs were just revenue without labor expenses. That is changing and it could - it most likely will get out of control. Basketball has a handful of players, some of whom can be relatively cheap, and a small coaching staff, against 13-15 home games for top 50 programs. Football is 7 home games, at least one of which doesn't draw or get watched, and had at least 85 scholarships plus a huge coaching staff. With NIL, you can have rosters of 100 or 125 players.
Ohio State's spreadsheet won't blow up. Alabama, Texas, Michigan, etc. will be fine. Baylor or TCU or even Iowa State? Wake Forest, BC or an NC State?
I have to be missing something with UCONN being hell bent on getting to a conference that will only ever be a distant third fiddle at best and one that will be going through a new media agreement negotiation in 6 or so years anyway. I'm trying to understand moving all sports except for football first, having to make massive investments in their football program in order to even give it a chance to not be laughed at as it aspires to play in this second rate conference, all while leaving an obvious fit with the Big East for basketball, and also leaving $15 million with the Big East as an exit fee. It's being required to improve football without any funding support from its future conference. Thanks for loving me and wanting me so much.
If the future as we can presently make it out through the mist looks problematic for existing "P4" schools, then this has to be a bridge too far for UCONN.
Someday we'll look back on this era - the big money media era for college athletics - and see it as a blinding fever for some and an opportunity that really could only be taken advantage of by maybe up to 50 or so athletic departments. Some of these non-B1G and non-SEC schools are going to look back and wonder why they sunk so much capital investment into one sport in an effort to maintain an unsustainable front porch as they saw it.
The underlying consensus on all of this among many is that you have to get to a "P2" seat or no worse than a "P4" seat for long term survival before it all settles in for good, whatever settling in for good means. You have to have football and you better be damn good at it, and/or otherwise capable of throwing in AAU status or other institutional strengths in order to get called up.
Well, getting called up from here where the B1G is concerned is problematic. There isn't one program in the Big 12 that warrants consideration for B1G membership, save possibly for Kansas, and I believe they would have already made it to that promised land if they were meant to make it at all. At this point, now behind USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, they are literally stuck in middle America with insufficient media value and a long, bad reputation in football, regardless of some of their recent success. I believe the same holds true for any Big 12 school dreaming of SEC membership.
There are a few or up to about 4 ACC schools that appear to be possible candidates for either the B1G or SEC, but the media distribution math would have to be worked out (i.e. uneven shares, most likely). Beyond that, ACC members are presently firmly locked into their "voluntary" GOR chains. They aren't going anywhere until Florida State's attorneys and one or two others force the issue legally.
With all that as a backdrop, consider this: within a couple of years, it is going to cost A LOT MORE - $60 million a year? - to run a high level college football program. I think there are many current P4 programs that may step back when this becomes apparent.
Consider the ramifications of the House v. NCAA settlement. The $2.8 billion deal to settle three federal antitrust lawsuits against the NCAA and power conferences also includes a groundbreaking plan to allow schools to share up to $21 million per year with their athletes as soon as 2025-26. Think about that for a minute. Imagine going into your existing Excel spreadsheet for your athletic department's income statement and adding a line in the amount of (up to) $21 million for revenue sharing with your athletes. Imagine doing that when you ARE NOT one of those 20 or so programs with stadiums that seat over 100,000 that operate at a surplus. Imagine doing that after you just added another new line for your share of settlement damages!
College football "drove the bus" when players weren't getting paid and football programs were just revenue without labor expenses. That is changing and it could - it most likely will get out of control. Basketball has a handful of players, some of whom can be relatively cheap, and a small coaching staff, against 13-15 home games for top 50 programs. Football is 7 home games, at least one of which doesn't draw or get watched, and had at least 85 scholarships plus a huge coaching staff. With NIL, you can have rosters of 100 or 125 players.
Ohio State's spreadsheet won't blow up. Alabama, Texas, Michigan, etc. will be fine. Baylor or TCU or even Iowa State? Wake Forest, BC or an NC State?
I have to be missing something with UCONN being hell bent on getting to a conference that will only ever be a distant third fiddle at best and one that will be going through a new media agreement negotiation in 6 or so years anyway. I'm trying to understand moving all sports except for football first, having to make massive investments in their football program in order to even give it a chance to not be laughed at as it aspires to play in this second rate conference, all while leaving an obvious fit with the Big East for basketball, and also leaving $15 million with the Big East as an exit fee. It's being required to improve football without any funding support from its future conference. Thanks for loving me and wanting me so much.
If the future as we can presently make it out through the mist looks problematic for existing "P4" schools, then this has to be a bridge too far for UCONN.
Someday we'll look back on this era - the big money media era for college athletics - and see it as a blinding fever for some and an opportunity that really could only be taken advantage of by maybe up to 50 or so athletic departments. Some of these non-B1G and non-SEC schools are going to look back and wonder why they sunk so much capital investment into one sport in an effort to maintain an unsustainable front porch as they saw it.