Brackets and Rankings: 2024-2025

[paulxu]

Playing as a 5 seed in Cleveland would certainly bring a smile to MOR.
With the lackluster performance this century, I guess the B1G needs to have 11 teams from the gun.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[GoMuskies]

A five seed in Wichita would be way better.

Bracketology in May is always pretty ridiculous, but in the portal era it's beyond silly to even attempt it. But better to have something to look at/talk about than not!

[X-band '01]

Never mind the portal era, how about the realignment era?

Keep in mind the B1G will have UCLA, USC and Oregon as serious NCAA contenders next year.

[Xville]

The big ten is going to have 18 members next year, that’s about as dumb as doing bracketology in May or acc coaches asking lunardi how to get teams in the tourney next year (this apparently actually happened which is mind boggling)

[paulxu]

Dropped a spot.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/39895473/mens-college-basketball-way-too-early-top-25-rankings-2024-25-season

[bjf123]

And UC jumped 6?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[X-band '01]

They had a former 5-star recruit that played at Texas commit to them. Would explain that jump a bit.

[noteggs]

The crosstown is going to be more lit than normal. Wonder if sUCks will finally admit they still care about the game?

[drudy23]

I hope both teams live up to the hype. Crosstown Shootout is always awesome, but awesomer when both are legit.

[X-band '01]

They may actually sell the game out for a change. Managed to get a nosebleed seat 2 years ago for what was Xavier's fourth straight win against UC.

[Xuperman]

Wouldn't it be nice if Trump would get real and just step aside? I mean, do the right thing and remove the "butt plug" from this perverse pornographic comedy of politics. Otherwise, we are totally fucked here people. We are on a straight path to SOCIALISM, or worse, with this O'Biden agenda.

TRUMP, the man, is so toxic that it is going to hand these America killers 4 more years.

[XUGRAD80]

Wouldn't it be nice if Trump would get real and just step aside? I mean, do the right thing and remove the "butt plug" from this perverse pornographic comedy of politics. Otherwise, we are totally fucked here people. We are on a straight path to SOCIALISM, or worse, with this O'Biden agenda.

TRUMP, the man, is so toxic that it is going to hand these America killers 4 more years.

Me thinks thou has posted on the wrong thread….

[94GRAD]

Wouldn't it be nice if Trump would get real and just step aside? I mean, do the right thing and remove the "butt plug" from this perverse pornographic comedy of politics. Otherwise, we are totally fucked here people. We are on a straight path to SOCIALISM, or worse, with this O'Biden agenda.

TRUMP, the man, is so toxic that it is going to hand these America killers 4 more years.


Me thinks thou has posted on the wrong thread….

Posting that close to midnight is never a good thing

[X-band '01]

I miss Snipe's legendary 3 AM rants.

[paulxu]

Down another spot, so Go can watch them in person.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[GoMuskies]

I would like that.

[xukeith]

The seeds of these early brackets don't show it but I bet they would like to put Miller's X vs Mack's Charleston squad.

[paulxu]

Down again. What's going on? Now in Raleigh.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[MHettel]

Down again. What's going on? Now in Raleigh.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

I'm not surprised at all by this. If I look at this team in isolation, it could be the deepest most experienced XU team ever. Even our very best teams were usually only 7 deep, with a dropoff once the starters came out or with huys having to play a bit out of position. But next years team is loaded, with the possible reality that previous starters might not be playing AT ALL.

In a "normal" year, this would be a preseason top 10, if not top 5 team. But there is nothing normal about what happened during the portal season. As predicted, the talent across the D1 landscape has continued to migrate UP the ranks and into a smaller set of the "haves." I know we think we had a "haul" when it comes to new portal players, and we certainly did get ALOT (7) of them, but honestly they were mostly ranked in in the 100-200 range. So you literally have about 190 other guys who are arguably of the same caliber or better that also improved some other teams.

Add in the fact that this is the last year for 5th year COVID guys and I think you will see the MOST LOADED rosters ever in college basketball, and likely never to be matched. I think the quality of basketball will be outstanding and we will actually see a noticeable drop off next year when the 5th year and 4th year guys step away, which will lead to an abnormally high number of freshmen coming in to fill the rosters. I expect a huge drop off in the 25-26 season and then a gradual return to "normal" rosters.

In any case, i do think this XU team is more like a 4-6 seed and therefore us currently overlooked. but this season will be epic, and a dogfight.

As an aside, and I've mentioned it before, but I think its very possible that XU could roll out the MOST EXPERIENCED college basketball team EVER next year. In terms of games played, our roster has played a combined like almost 1000 games or something crazy like that. With the 5th year players going away, it will never be possible to assemble a roster like this again. Most experienced team ever....forever?

[xudash]

I'm not surprised at all by this. If I look at this team in isolation, it could be the deepest most experienced XU team ever. Even our very best teams were usually only 7 deep, with a dropoff once the starters came out or with huys having to play a bit out of position. But next years team is loaded, with the possible reality that previous starters might not be playing AT ALL.

In a "normal" year, this would be a preseason top 10, if not top 5 team. But there is nothing normal about what happened during the portal season. As predicted, the talent across the D1 landscape has continued to migrate UP the ranks and into a smaller set of the "haves." I know we think we had a "haul" when it comes to new portal players, and we certainly did get ALOT (7) of them, but honestly they were mostly ranked in in the 100-200 range. So you literally have about 190 other guys who are arguably of the same caliber or better that also improved some other teams.

Add in the fact that this is the last year for 5th year COVID guys and I think you will see the MOST LOADED rosters ever in college basketball, and likely never to be matched. I think the quality of basketball will be outstanding and we will actually see a noticeable drop off next year when the 5th year and 4th year guys step away, which will lead to an abnormally high number of freshmen coming in to fill the rosters. I expect a huge drop off in the 25-26 season and then a gradual return to "normal" rosters.

In any case, i do think this XU team is more like a 4-6 seed and therefore us currently overlooked. but this season will be epic, and a dogfight.

As an aside, and I've mentioned it before, but I think its very possible that XU could roll out the MOST EXPERIENCED college basketball team EVER next year. In terms of games played, our roster has played a combined like almost 1000 games or something crazy like that. With the 5th year players going away, it will never be possible to assemble a roster like this again. Most experienced team ever....forever?

It may sound stupid, probably because it is at least somewhat nuts, but this coming season more than any other season in our history is THE season for receiving a very generous spray of pixie dust in the NCAAT. We need to receive what UCONN seems to receive all too frequently in the tournament - some good luck coupled with some advantageous match ups and our guys playing lights out once they get there.

To your point, notwithstanding the experience we just hauled in, I keep pondering Freemantle AND Hunter down low. If our new centers deliver, and if they all stay healthy, watch out.

[Xville]

I think we are all discounting the fact that lunardi is really bad at his job.

Good at branding himself, bad at actual prognosticating.

[paulxu]

I was so spoiled as we seemed to always got to the NCAA's.
In the past 6 years we've been once.

I'd be very happy to return to the old ways.

[GoMuskies]

I think we are all discounting the fact that lunardi is really bad at his job.

Good at branding himself, bad at actual prognosticating.

And with the transfer portal that job is basically impossible now anyway. Just throw darts at a board to pick 3-11 seeds.

[xubrew]

I think we are all discounting the fact that lunardi is really bad at his job.

Good at branding himself, bad at actual prognosticating.

I both know and like Joe Lunardi. He doesn't really brand himself. He just sort of fell backwards into it. He used to be the editor of the Blue Ribboin, and they put out a print edition of it for the NCAA Tournament that had to be pressed and ready to go the night of the selection show. So, he sort of taught himself to guess who was getting in in order to cut down on the amount of work they needed to do and have it all done by that night.

They advertised the book on ESPN, and the ad included a bracket he had made. It got so much attention that ESPN asked him to start doing it for them. And, the rest is history. He's actually the first one to tell you he's really just guessing. It was ESPN that kind of made it into what it is. I really like what he does. Having a bracket out every week is something that anyone can look at and get a quick snapshot of how the season is going, and I think that adds to peoples' enjoyment of the sport. He might not get the best "score" when it comes to selections and seedings, but he's probably got the most people following him, so...good for him! He also knows the actual game more than what he gets credit for. He'd be a pretty decent scout. He knows it better than most in the media. I sometimes wish they'd use him more for analysis instead of just having him guess brackets.

[Xville]

I'm not surprised at all by this. If I look at this team in isolation, it could be the deepest most experienced XU team ever. Even our very best teams were usually only 7 deep, with a dropoff once the starters came out or with huys having to play a bit out of position. But next years team is loaded, with the possible reality that previous starters might not be playing AT ALL.

In a "normal" year, this would be a preseason top 10, if not top 5 team. But there is nothing normal about what happened during the portal season. As predicted, the talent across the D1 landscape has continued to migrate UP the ranks and into a smaller set of the "haves." I know we think we had a "haul" when it comes to new portal players, and we certainly did get ALOT (7) of them, but honestly they were mostly ranked in in the 100-200 range. So you literally have about 190 other guys who are arguably of the same caliber or better that also improved some other teams.

Add in the fact that this is the last year for 5th year COVID guys and I think you will see the MOST LOADED rosters ever in college basketball, and likely never to be matched. I think the quality of basketball will be outstanding and we will actually see a noticeable drop off next year when the 5th year and 4th year guys step away, which will lead to an abnormally high number of freshmen coming in to fill the rosters. I expect a huge drop off in the 25-26 season and then a gradual return to "normal" rosters.

In any case, i do think this XU team is more like a 4-6 seed and therefore us currently overlooked. but this season will be epic, and a dogfight.

As an aside, and I've mentioned it before, but I think its very possible that XU could roll out the MOST EXPERIENCED college basketball team EVER next year. In terms of games played, our roster has played a combined like almost 1000 games or something crazy like that. With the 5th year players going away, it will never be possible to assemble a roster like this again. Most experienced team ever....forever?

I think Lunardi is simpler than what you describe here. If you look at the schools ahead of X, they are either "blue blood programs" or teams that have had quite a bit of recent success. That's why Lunardi has them preseason ranked ahead of Xavier....that and Xavier has for the most part been terrible since Mack left, so they aren't getting the benefit of the doubt.

If Lunardi looks objectively at rosters (which by some of his rankings, I can about guarantee he doesn't do), X would easily be in the top 5 seeds. It's just frankly laziness.

[profson]

I don’t know how you can rank this team now. Every one of the bigs has significant questions surrounding them. If those break the right way there is promise, but if not …

[XUGRAD80]

I don’t know how you can rank this team now. Every one of the bigs has significant questions surrounding them. If those break the right way there is promise, but if not …

And the same can be said for almost every other squad. That is why preseason rankings and even most in season predictions aren’t worth the paper they are written on or the time that it takes to read them. No reason to get excited over them one way or the other.

[paulxu]

More worthless paper. At least we're rising.
So strange to not have Villanova in the mix.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[GoMuskies]

Kelsey getting Louisville into the Tournament in his first year would be big news.

[X-band '01]

More worthless paper. At least we're rising.
So strange to not have Villanova in the mix.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

This is really going to be a make-or-break year for Kyle Neptune. I'm not bullish on Nova at all this upcoming year.

[MHettel]

More worthless paper. At least we're rising.
So strange to not have Villanova in the mix.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

8 seed? WTF?

No. This squad is (as my teenagers would say) "low key" dangerous.

there are too many excellent cards in his hand for Miller not to play this hand to some big money.

top 3 finish in the BE, and 4 seed. I see a range of 2-6 for our seed. you heard it here first. No more Gytis. No more Abou.

[xukeith]

8 seed? WTF?

No. This squad is (as my teenagers would say) "low key" dangerous.

there are too many excellent cards in his hand for Miller not to play this hand to some big money.

top 3 finish in the BE, and 4 seed. I see a range of 2-6 for our seed. you heard it here first. No more Gytis. No more Abou.

We can hope.
Freemantle. Hunter, Hugley and Traore (if healthy and productive in BE) might help X get to top 4 in BE.

[Xville]

If x is below a 5 seed, we had injuries. There is too much experience, too much versatility and too much miller to be lower than a 5.

[paulxu]

If x is below a 5 seed, we had injuries. There is too much experience, too much versatility and too much miller to be lower than a 5.

Up to 7 and playing in Lexington. Would be nice.
But, the injury bug did bite us again.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[GoMuskies]

It's only been one day, but we've already had an impact on Bracketology: Texas Southern joined the field in the latest Bracketology, presumably based on their respectable performance in Cintas last night.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[Xville]

I did see that they were at least picked to finish second and it was close to first in the swac. It’s the swac so take with that what you will, but hoping that once they get into conference, they win it, or at least not be a drag on the numbers

[drudy23]

I did see that they were at least picked to finish second and it was close to first in the swac. It’s the swac so take with that what you will, but hoping that once they get into conference, they win it, or at least not be a drag on the numbers

They had some decent pieces, and they played hard and physical. I could certainly see them making the tournament out of the SWAC.

Still should have won by 20+.

[GoMuskies]

We're fourth among others receiving votes in the AP top 25.

[paulxu]

Still in Lexington.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[muskiefan82]

Xavier defeats Alabama in the second round in the "What is defense?" game of the year, 134-123

[paulxu]

Now in Cleveland.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[Xville]

Should we ranked this week with both Rutgers and St. John's losing...Lets go ahead and stay there the rest of the year :)

[Xville]

X checks in at #22. Stay in it the rest of the year!

[bleedXblue]

We're in b/c of other's misfortune and I'm ok with that. Let's win a couple of Tier 1/2 games this week and EARN a better ranking!

[xubrew]

Xavier's SOR is now 44th, which is kind of nuts considering that three of the teams they've beaten have no D1 wins, but I guess when you consider that X is the only team to beat Wake and Siena actually did win a road game, the metric sees that as being two good wins.

UConn's current SOR is 100th. If they hold on to beat Memphis they'll probably jump ahead of us. But if X ends up beating Michigan they'll also shoot way up.

Most of the metrics are all scattershot right now, so the polls probably are the best frame of reference until most teams have played a football season. But, SOR is probably the metric/poll I value the most. It's not the only one by any means, but it measures what I personally think matters. How hard was it to win the games that you've won??

And no matter what you look at (NET, SOR, AP, Coaches, KenPom, Torvik, etc), by the end of the year they're all generally consistent. Not identical, but generally close.

[GoMuskies]

X is down to #67 in KenPom.

[Xville]

If what I'm seeing is correct, 64 in the net. X has a lot of work to do.

TCU is in the 40s so a chance to pick up a Quad 1 quickly. South carolina is #51...that could turn into a quad 1 with a little bump...cut off is 50 at neutral sites.

Edit: Ok it was wrong...X is 103...holy crap that's horrible. X has a LOT of work to do. TCU is 121 geezus.

X has all Quad 3 and Quad 4 wins at this point; 0-1 in Quad 1.

[xubrew]

If what I'm seeing is correct, 64 in the net. X has a lot of work to do.

TCU is in the 40s so a chance to pick up a Quad 1 quickly. South carolina is #51...that could turn into a quad 1 with a little bump...cut off is 50 at neutral sites.

Edit: Ok it was wrong...X is 103...holy crap that's horrible. X has a LOT of work to do. TCU is 121 geezus.

X has all Quad 3 and Quad 4 wins at this point; 0-1 in Quad 1.

I get that it's early, but for a team to be 7-1 and only be 103rd in the NET is pretty crazy. Xavier certainly didn't look like a top 100 team in their last two games, and 4 of those 7 wins were against teams that probably wouldn't be anywhere close to making the D2 tournament, and they barely won a couple of those, so I guess it makes sense, but it still seems kind of crazy.

[Xville]

I get that it's early, but for a team to be 7-1 and only be 103rd in the NET is pretty crazy. Xavier certainly didn't look like a top 100 team in their last two games, and 4 of those 7 wins were against teams that probably wouldn't be anywhere close to making the D2 tournament, and they barely won a couple of those, so I guess it makes sense, but it still seems kind of crazy.

I hate the NET. I think it's a shit metric TBH. Case in point, UC is 7-0...all their wins are Q3 and Q4 and they are 11. They won 2 road games against powerhouse NKU and Georgia Tech who will be at the very best in the middle of a shit ACC. Such a shit way to group teams.

[xubrew]

I hate the NET. I think it's a shit metric TBH. Case in point, UC is 7-0...all their wins are Q3 and Q4 and they are 11. They won 2 road games against powerhouse NKU and Georgia Tech who will be at the very best in the middle of a shit ACC. Such a shit way to group teams.

I can't figure that one out.

When something seems out of whack I can usually find which of the five variables is causing it to be out of whack, but with UC I really can't. They're 11th. How?? They're 2-0 on the road, and I know having a 1000 road record is a big deal, but the teams they've beaten aren't particularly good at home, much less good overall. About 60 teams would be unbeaten against that schedule and have those same margins of victory.

I'm also not the biggest fan of the NET. I don't mind the concept of it, meaning I don't mind trying to find something that's a hybrid of merit rankings and efficiency ratings, but I just think this one misses more than it hits. But...whatever. At the end of the day it's just a sorting tool. and we have a ton of games to go.

UCLA at 16th also doesn't make any sense. All their games have been at home and they lost to the one decent team they played.

[GoMuskies]

KenPom rates UC #9. I'm kind of afraid they're going to murder us this year.

[xubrew]

KenPom rates UC #9. I'm kind of afraid they're going to murder us this year.

That one I can explain. It’s an adjusted efficiency rating. They’ve been very efficient against bad teams, but the adjusted rating isn’t being adjusted to account for how bad the teams are because it’s still too early to make a proper adjustment, so it’s still basically just a strait efficiency rating.

[waggy]

The NET is a scam. It's not that's it's not accurate in my mind. I'm reasonably sure it's as good as any of the other metrics. It's the whole quad thing that's the scam. Basically it allows the committee to move the target depending on who they want to let in. Which of course will always be the case regardless, but the fact they don't release the actual formula tells you all you need to know.

[xubrew]

The NET is a scam. It's not that's it's not accurate in my mind. I'm reasonably sure it's as good as any of the other metrics. It's the whole quad thing that's the scam. Basically it allows the committee to move the target depending on who they want to let in. Which of course will always be the case regardless, but the fact they don't release the actual formula tells you all you need to know.

It's ridiculous to not release the formula.

"Well if we did then no one would really understand it anyway."

Well, that's bullshit. Not everyone would understand it, but I bet most people who wanted to understand it would understand it.

[bleedXblue]

KenPom rates UC #9. I'm kind of afraid they're going to murder us this year.

Feels like they have a definitive edge this year. We will see how they play at Nova tomorrow. Skilling is still out.....

Feels like they will be a 8-10 PPG favorite.

[paulxu]

Dropped to the "last team in" and a play-in spot in Dayton.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[xukeith]

Dropped to the "last team in" and a play-in spot in Dayton.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

That is insane. Creighton out and X in. lol

[X-band '01]

That was before Creighton beat Kansas and X losing at TCU.

Then again, Kansas is going to fall further with a loss at Mizzou.

[Xville]

Aren’t a tournament team right now. I’d like to see some changes in the starting lineup. Either go small with Maddox and take the good with the bad or put hunter in there and slide Swain over. Not getting off to great starts, and need something to inject some life into the team at the beginning.

[A Fan]

When I look at Xavier’s Big East schedule and try to predict the outcome I can’t get comfortable with having confidence in winning any games other than.
Georgetown and DePaul Home and Away . 4
Seton Hall at home . 1
Butler and Providence at Home 2 .

To get to 9 I need to add both Butler and Providence away.
To get to 10 I need to add St. John’s or Villanova at Home.

How do you see it?

[Xville]

When I look at Xavier’s Big East schedule and try to predict the outcome I can’t get comfortable with having confidence in winning any games other than.
Georgetown and DePaul Home and Away . 4
Seton Hall at home . 1
Butler and Providence at Home 2 .

To get to 9 I need to add both Butler and Providence away.
To get to 10 I need to add St. John’s or Villanova at Home.

How do you see it?

Here’s how to get to 12 wins in conference. I hope they get more but this I feel at least decent about:

Seton hall 2
Gtown 2
DePaul 2
Providence 1
Butler 1
Nova 1
Creighton 1
St. John’s 1

Either nova/providence on the road.

[XUMIOH12]

When I look at Xavier’s Big East schedule and try to predict the outcome I can’t get comfortable with having confidence in winning any games other than.
Georgetown and DePaul Home and Away . 4
Seton Hall at home . 1
Butler and Providence at Home 2 .

To get to 9 I need to add both Butler and Providence away.
To get to 10 I need to add St. John’s or Villanova at Home.

How do you see it?

Seton Hall is horrible. Losing 1 game to them would be a potential killer. With that being said, as of right now, I have a tough time believing this team will win 12 conference games. Lots of time to go and lots of mediocre BE teams though, so maybe they can pull out some of the close ones.

[X-band '01]

I wouldn't be taking a sweep of DePaul for granted this year. Also agree with Xville that sweeping Seton Hall is now becoming a must.

[Xavier]

Xavier moved up to 75 in the NET. For what that’s worth.

[Xville]

Xavier moved up to 75 in the NET. For what that’s worth.

Moved up to #61 in kenpom as well. Pretty evident that beating really shitty teams is the way to move up quickly in these things, and make your team "look good." How stupid

[X-band '01]

Beating a shitty team by 61 is why they moved up considerably. Nearly losing to South Carolina State (along with struggles against Texas Southern and IU-Indy) is also keeping the metrics down.

[Xville]

Need to win at least 1 of the next 3, then the schedule gets "easier" for five games after that, where they will really need to capitalize.

[Xville]

Lunardi https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

still has 5 big east teams in with Creighton being one of the last teams in. One of the most peculiar things is he has Providence safely in with a 7-5 record. That's an interesting take. I'm not sure if he is taking into account Hopkins being out earlier as to why all those losses shouldn't count or what. Weird.

He has them as the AQ? wtf

[drudy23]

There was no part of me that thought we'd be out of bracket projections before Christmas.

And Dayton would be a 7 seed...not even 2 months after they looked like a D2 squad.

I hate life.

[GoMuskies]

Lunardi https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

still has 5 big east teams in with Creighton being one of the last teams in. One of the most peculiar things is he has Providence safely in with a 7-5 record. That's an interesting take. I'm not sure if he is taking into account Hopkins being out earlier as to why all those losses shouldn't count or what. Weird.

He has them as the AQ? wtf

Providence is 1-0 in the league. They currently lead the league. That's why.

[Xville]

Providence is 1-0 in the league. They currently lead the league. That's why.

Ah ok! I was convinced it was just a misprint

[paulxu]

Not a good look that the BE is down to 3 teams.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[SkyWalker]

At this point, that seems about right.

[Xville]

Thrilled to be able to resurrect this thread from the depths of hell.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

X currently the 6th team out....Talk task, but go 2-0 this week and probably sitting on the right side of the bubble. Let's fucking go!

[GoMuskies]

Pretty wild how much a win on the road at #7 changes things.

[bleedXblue]

Any idea if McNeely is still out for UCONN?

[Xville]

Any idea if McNeely is still out for UCONN?

All I’ve seen is that he’s been out of the boot for about a week. He will probably be close by Saturday, but hopefully they hold him out until after Saturday out of precaution :) .

[Xville]

Trending up....last team out!

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

JMO but I don't see 13 teams from the SEC getting in. I think teams like Georgia and Oklahoma are going to continue losing a lot of games in that conference. I see 11, maybe 12 when all is said and done.

[bleedXblue]

Must go 7-3 or 8-2 the rest of the way to not have to sweat it out or go deep in the BE tourney

[Xavier]

Bracketville guy had X as last team in as of today. In or out, it’s clear X is right in position to push themselves in. A dramatic change following the home loss to St. John’s game.

[noteggs]

I know this site has been shared in years past, but seems to be the most accurate. Currently we have 6 out of 85 bracket dudes predicting X will receive an at large. It’s a start!

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

[xubrew]

Based on how X has been playing, I think they do what they have to between now and the end to get in.

[XUMIOH12]

Must go 7-3 or 8-2 the rest of the way to not have to sweat it out or go deep in the BE tourney

I think 7-3 is still a pretty good sweat, might get in, but that would be right on the cut line. 8-2 would feel good.

[XUMIOH12]

Relevant Games 1/28:

Wake Forest @ Louisville - Want Louisville to win this one as WF is in the outer bubble conversation.
South Carolina @ Georgia - South Carolina win would be nice. Georgia is on the inside of the bubble at the moment.
Dayton @ St Bonaventure - Dayton is in a similar position to X on the bubble, so a win by the Bonnies would be useful.
VCU @ SLU - VCU has a very slim chance at approaching the bubble, any loss they take really hurts them.
UCF @ Kansas - UCF on the inside of the bubble, need them to take some losses. Winning at Kansas would be massive for them.
Oklahoma @ Texas A&M - Oklahoma is probably in as of now, but could slip back on to the bubble if they go on a slide.
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh - This is a very bubbly game. Pitt ahead of Carolina in bubble positioning. Prefer a Pitt win here.
Baylor @ BYU - BYU is in a similar bubble position to Xavier, so we'd like to see them lose here.
Cincinnati @ Utah - Same as above with BYU and Dayton. Need them to take a couple more losses - plus we like to see them lose anyways.
San Jose St @ San Diego St - SDSU probably inside the bubble, but a couple Mountain West losses like this puts them right back in the middle of it.

Only 29 games today, but we have some rooting interests in quite a few of them.

[muskiefan82]

I agree with most of that except Wake Forest @ Louisville. I can see the other side which is that X beat Wake Forest and so maybe beating UL is a good thing. I am enjoying the Kelsey revival though.

[xubrew]

Check out the Def Con Ratings at the bottom of the sheet! It changes every day! It calculates who Xavier should be rooting for and which games are most important! Kinda neat! Although some of the start times are always messed up.

https://hoopshd.com/team-sheets/xavier/

[GoMuskies]

Pretty great night for us Tuesday. Would have liked to have seen SJSU hold on to beat SDSU, but it's never going to be perfect.

[XUMIOH12]

Relevant Games 1/29:

Will keep it succinct today with a couple of meaningful ones;

Texas @ Ole Miss - Texas is right in the same Last 4 In/First 4 Out group with Xavier. Need them to lose.
California @ SMU - SMU same situation as Texas. Need them to lose.
Xavier @ Creighton - Obvious

Texas, SMU and Xavier all right on the cut line. True bubble teams right now. Xavier and Texas aren't hurt by a loss tonight as much as SMU would be.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think if we go 7-2 the rest of the way we sneak in. Anything better than that I feel pretty good. That puts us at 20 wins. And yeah we could get screwed like a couple BE teams last year but also last year the following teams were single digits seeds:

UD- 3 Q1 wins
Gonzaga- 3 Q1 wins
Mich st- 3 Q1 wins
Florida- 3 Q1 wins
Miss St.- 2 Q1 wins
Nebraska- 3 Q1 wins

I think if we get to 20 wins and avoid any bad losses we pass the eye test and get in. We shall see. Just win. Schedule is much easier but can’t afford to trip up. Need to stack the wins.

[xukeith]

Remaing games top 6 BE teams have to play vs each other
Marq. 6
SJU 6
Creighton 5
UConn 6
Nova 5
Xavier 2

Not including Providence or Georgetown as top half of BE.

[MHettel]

Remaing games each BE team has to play vs top half of BE

Marq. 6
SJU 6
Creighton 5
UConn 6
Nova 5
Xavier 2

Not including Providence or Georgetown as top half of BE.

There are 11 teams. You list 6. Is that the top half? Said another way, is this the number of games these 6 teams play against each other?

We’re tied for 5th with Nova right now, 2-3 games behind the pack. I think we gotta get to 4th to be assured of a bid. If we’re in 5th, it’s Bubble City for us.

We need Marquette and St John’s to just win out and help knock Creighton and Ucon down a notch.

Next Creighton game is a must win.

MU & SJU are locks and we went 1-3 against them. We split with UConn.

Losing to Creighton again puts us in 5th place with a 2-6 record against the top 4. Zero chance.

Creighton is 8-2 I think now. UConn I think is 6-4. Might need to catch them to lock up a bid.

[Xville]

Lunardi didn't even move us, which i found interesting:

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

Bracketmatrix right now has us as fourth team out:

bracketmatrix.com

Not sure if this will pop up correctly or not, but on Barttorvik, you can predict W-L records for your specific team and see what he projects for your team's tourney chances.

I hypothetically put X at 7-2 the rest of the way losing @nova and @butler. Of course this isn't perfect, but he would have X aas first team out in that scenario. I guess what I'm saying is, we better go 8-1, otherwise it's going to just be way too tight.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Xavier&year=2025

You can play around with different scenarios. It's fun and kinda depressing all at the same time.

[GoMuskies]

Xavier's women don't show up on the latest Bracketology. Very puzzling.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/30423107/ncaa-women-bracketology-2025-women-college-basketball-projections

[drudy23]

Lunardi didn't even move us, which i found interesting:

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

Bracketmatrix right now has us as fourth team out:

bracketmatrix.com

Not sure if this will pop up correctly or not, but on Barttorvik, you can predict W-L records for your specific team and see what he projects for your team's tourney chances.

I hypothetically put X at 7-2 the rest of the way losing @nova and @butler. Of course this isn't perfect, but he would have X aas first team out in that scenario. I guess what I'm saying is, we better go 8-1, otherwise it's going to just be way too tight.

https://barttorvik.com/teamcast.php?&team=Xavier&year=2025

You can play around with different scenarios. It's fun and kinda depressing all at the same time.

While currently not in, this is a good sign.

Finish strong and we have a chance. The schedule allows for it. Let's do this!

[Xville]

While currently not in, this is a good sign.

Finish strong and we have a chance. The schedule allows for it. Let's do this!

Yeah. I think the next three games will determine if x makes the tourney or not. Go 3-0 and x should be dancing. 1-2 and it’s wait until next year. 2-1 and have to win out and I just don’t know if this team can go on that kind of run.

[Three Point Pete]

Yeah. I think the next three games will determine if x makes the tourney or not. Go 3-0 and x should be dancing. 1-2 and it’s wait until next year. 2-1 and have to win out and I just don’t know if this team can go on that kind of run.I am hoping we win 5 of the next 6. Look at an somewhat improved Maddox/Hugley-led bench, and Foster's play continues to trend upwards. Now, Coach has pledged to use Fletcher gently, and we might see hom easing into more playing time. Also, I believe that Conwell's woes are behind him(please, Jesus)! And Rome shall rise again.


Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk

[GoMuskies]

Lunardi didn't even move us, which i found interesting:

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

North Carolina still in as a play-in team despite being an absolute shit-show. Just goes to show you don't have to be any good to make the Tournament out of a power conference (as has been pointed out many times here about how flawed the Bubble teams are). Let's hope we can find a way to be minimally competent!

[xukeith]

Remaining games each top 6 team in BE current standings have to play vs each other for remainder of regular season.

[xukeith]

There are 11 teams. You list 6. Is that the top half? Said another way, is this the number of games these 6 teams play against each other?

We’re tied for 5th with Nova right now, 2-3 games behind the pack. I think we gotta get to 4th to be assured of a bid. If we’re in 5th, it’s Bubble City for us.

We need Marquette and St John’s to just win out and help knock Creighton and Ucon down a notch.

Next Creighton game is a must win.

MU & SJU are locks and we went 1-3 against them. We split with UConn.

Losing to Creighton again puts us in 5th place with a 2-6 record against the top 4. Zero chance.

Creighton is 8-2 I think now. UConn I think is 6-4. Might need to catch them to lock up a bid.

Remaining games each top 6 team in BE current standings have to play vs each other for remainder of regular season

[Xville]

https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-basketball-poll

Still no love for the smaller conferences, but at least some teams are finally getting noticed. St. Mary's New Mexico, Utah State (they have been getting votes for a while), Drake, George Mason and Zags.

Speaking of the Zags, are they in trouble? Probably not, but this season is not typical for them.

[xubrew]

https://apnews.com/hub/ap-top-25-college-basketball-poll

Still no love for the smaller conferences, but at least some teams are finally getting noticed. St. Mary's New Mexico, Utah State (they have been getting votes for a while), Drake, George Mason and Zags.

Speaking of the Zags, are they in trouble? Probably not, but this season is not typical for them.

I think UC Irvine is better than Drake and George Mason and should be in the field even without the autobid, but I guess we will see. I don't think they're one of the 25 best teams so it isn't totally crazy that no one voted for them, but still...

[Xville]

I think UC Irvine is better than Drake and George Mason and should be in the field even without the autobid, but I guess we will see. I don't think they're one of the 25 best teams so it isn't totally crazy that no one voted for them, but still...

Admittedly I haven't watched them once, but what I did just notice is that all their guys that could, stuck around for this year. Is there a decent nil bucket there or something? Thought it was interesting.

[xubrew]

Admittedly I haven't watched them once, but what I did just notice is that all their guys that could, stuck around for this year. Is there a decent nil bucket there or something? Thought it was interesting.

I don't know exactly what their situation is, but I guess they must have some NIL money. I know they have a deep rotation, are very defensive oriented, and everyone who plays is expected to know their system. They also lost one of their better players for the year, but have continued to win without him.

UC Santa Barbara spends a fair amount of money, and actually has "highest rated" level of talent, but they've been falling short in recent years.

[Xavier]

Pitt losing at home to a bad Virginia team. They are right in the bubble mix with X. As everyone says most teams play themselves out of the tournament. Thats one. Hope to see more of this while we just slowly take care of business.

[GoMuskies]

Bubble Watch has begun on ESPN.com. Their metrics give Xavier a 31% chance of making the Tournament.

[webxu]

Bubble Watch has begun on ESPN.com. Their metrics give Xavier a 31% chance of making the Tournament.

Its also giving UC a 68% to make it, they are nothing if not self serving

[Section 200]

Its also giving UC a 68% to make it, they are nothing if not self serving

68% chance to make the NCAA tournament? The UC that is 2-8 in the Big 12? Best win is Xavier team in Clifton? Wow

[Xavier]

Does everyone go to the big12 tournament? Maybe that’s what the number was referring to. Team rankings gives X about a 30% chance while UC a 0

[xukeith]

How likely (or not likely) is it that both Creighton and Villanova games will be Q1 games?

[Xville]

How likely (or not likely) is it that both Creighton and Villanova games will be Q1 games?

Couple of notes:

Nova is 57 currently with a 12-10 record. I think we can safely assume they are going to stay a q1 based on that.

UCONN is 31. They just need to have a good finish to be a q1 and I think they will since mcneely is about to come back.

Creighton is 35. They have a tough 4 game stretch coming up, if they can go 3-1 in that stretch, I think they could be a q1 when they come to Cintas.

Providence is 83. It’s probably a little stretch but that away game could be a q1 by the end of the season depending on their play.


IMO 3 of those 4 are going to flip or stay at a q1. Beat nova and Creighton without a dumb loss and x should be in great shape. Sunday is everything!

[GoMuskies]

ESPN's Bubble Watch now says UC "should be in". UC has a 76% chance to get in. UNC has an 87% chance to get in. Louisville has a 60% chance to get in. Just look at those three, and ESPN clearly needs to toss their model in the trash and start over.

[Xville]

ESPN's Bubble Watch now says UC "should be in". UC has a 76% chance to get in. UNC has an 87% chance to get in. Louisville has a 60% chance to get in. Just look at those three, and ESPN clearly needs to toss their model in the trash and start over.

Who the heck is in charge of bubble watch at ESPN? It's clear that person or staff have zero clue what is going on.

[GoMuskies]

In other news, Wake got a big win at Stanford last night. The not great Demon Deacons are 17-6, 9-3 now. Every little bit helps for the Muskies.

[xubrew]

ESPN's Bubble Watch now says UC "should be in". UC has a 76% chance to get in. UNC has an 87% chance to get in. Louisville has a 60% chance to get in. Just look at those three, and ESPN clearly needs to toss their model in the trash and start over.

Someone is drunk, high, stoned, and brain damaged! There's no way that's Joe Lunardi. That's something else on the site that has nothing to do with him and that's WAAAAAAY out of whack!

[Xavier]

UCF losing to UC probably helps us though. BYU losing to Arizona, Pitt knocking themselves out with loss to Virginia. Arizona state took a big loss, hard to see them fighting back. Vandy losing at Florida isn’t bad but a win would’ve helped their case even more. USC losing to Northwestern.

Frankly a lot of the teams around the cut line or the 8 teams out took some losses. In that regard it’s actually been a good week for X. But ultimately, if X goes 8-0 they are a lock, 7-1 likely in, 6-2 likely out. Thats how I see it regardless of what happens around them.

[Xville]

UCF losing to UC probably helps us though. BYU losing to Arizona, Pitt knocking themselves out with loss to Virginia. Arizona state took a big loss, hard to see them fighting back. Vandy losing at Florida isn’t bad but a win would’ve helped their case even more. USC losing to Northwestern.

Frankly a lot of the teams around the cut line or the 8 teams out took some losses. In that regard it’s actually been a good week for X. But ultimately, if X goes 8-0 they are a lock, 7-1 likely in, 6-2 likely out. Thats how I see it regardless of what happens around them.

To add to your point, I don't take a lot of stock into what other bubble teams are doing this time of year because in the end, it doesn't really matter if X doesn't take care of business. If they do, it will work itself out, if they don't then it doesn't matter what the other teams do. The only thing I'm really paying attention to are teams within our own conference, because of Q1 opportunities and which teams are going up and down in terms of net. I'd have rather UC lost last night because F UC and hope they lose every game.

[xuwillie]

To add to your point, I don't take a lot of stock into what other bubble teams are doing this time of year because in the end, it doesn't really matter if X doesn't take care of business. If they do, it will work itself out, if they don't then it doesn't matter what the other teams do. The only thing I'm really paying attention to are teams within our own conference, because of Q1 opportunities and which teams are going up and down in terms of net. I'd have rather UC lost last night because F UC and hope they lose every game.

We are fighting for one of the last spots with UC. So yes who gives a sh*t if they win at this point

[Xville]

We are fighting for one of the last spots with UC. So yes who gives a sh*t if they win at this point

Uc is not a bubble team at this point. They aren’t even a mention on anyone’s radar. Lunardi, bracketmatrix torvik etc. the only place they are mentioned is the hack “journalism” on espns bubble watch which is laughable at best. If anyone believes they are, then both those teams are bubble teams, so it didn’t matter who won. It would help and hurt at the same time

[Xavier]

UC isn’t even close. For that matter, neither is Dayton. They do have an easier auto bid possibility but they don’t have an at large shot.

[XUMIOH12]

In other news, Wake got a big win at Stanford last night. The not great Demon Deacons are 17-6, 9-3 now. Every little bit helps for the Muskies.

No, no, no. We really needed WF to lose that game lol. Need them to take another loss or two. They are slightly ahead of us on the bubble after that Q1 win

[XUMIOH12]

Someone is drunk, high, stoned, and brain damaged! There's no way that's Joe Lunardi. That's something else on the site that has nothing to do with him and that's WAAAAAAY out of whack!

They are basing the categories almost strictly on their BPI formula. They even point out in a couple of the teams that their forecast is way off from everyone else lol

[Xville]

They are basing the categories almost strictly on their BPI formula. They even point out in a couple of the teams that their forecast is way off from everyone else lol

So, they are actively letting everyone know how much their formula sucks? That's a bold strategy, Cotton.

[xu82]

Who the heck is in charge of bubble watch at ESPN? It's clear that person or staff have zero clue what is going on.

Maybe the same person who used to handle their college basketball recruiting? I haven’t looked in years, but that used to be an embarrassment! All kinds of bad and outdated info. Shut that crap down.

[XUMIOH12]

So, they are actively letting everyone know how much their formula sucks? That's a bold strategy, Cotton.

If you are using espn, ignore the bubble watch and at least look at lunardi. He's typically not as good at the seeding, but he tends to be pretty close on the in/out bubble situation.

[Xville]

If you are using espn, ignore the bubble watch and at least look at lunardi. He's typically not as good at the seeding, but he tends to be pretty close on the in/out bubble situation.

Yeah agreed. I'm not a huge fan of his from a personality standpoint, but he does do a decent job at picking them, but as you said seeding not great

[Xville]

If you are using espn, ignore the bubble watch and at least look at lunardi. He's typically not as good at the seeding, but he tends to be pretty close on the in/out bubble situation.

Yeah agreed. I'm not a huge fan of his from a personality standpoint, but he does do a decent job at picking them, but as you said seeding not great

[webxu]

Espn is boosting their espn brands, nothing more on that bubble crap. Every other source has UC no where near the bubble and X having what basically amounts to 50/50, not the 30% espn gives them. That article is a business decsion nothing more

[GoMuskies]

Someone is drunk, high, stoned, and brain damaged! There's no way that's Joe Lunardi. That's something else on the site that has nothing to do with him and that's WAAAAAAY out of whack!

Yes, ESPN has now ADMITTED they were drunk, high, stoned and brain damaged. This appears in today's version of the Bubble Watch:

"Upon further investigation, ESPN Analytics discovered there was an issue within the BPI forecast that affected the way the model was processing each team's chances, including the way it was taking in NET data in order to generate quad wins/losses."

That's pretty embarrassing. Going back to look at our more "controversial" cases, Louisville is now a lock with a 97% chance to Dance, UNC is down to 19% (from like 87% at last check), and UC has retreated to 27% despite a fairly impressive 3 game win streak. Sanity has returned. A least a bit.

Unfortunately, sanity also hit Xavier a bit on the Watch. Xavier has been downgraded to a 14% chance of making the Tournament, which sounds about right to me.

[paulxu]

https://media4.giphy.com/media/v1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExcngzeDRyazlsaDl2MThlM3NjeHZpN2N uZmFqMzJzcTg3OHY1eXlmZyZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjd D1n/ToMjGpKniGqRNLGBrhu/giphy.webp

[Xavier]

UNC has to have a big nil pocket. Davis should be let go.

[GoMuskies]

Xavier's chances "jumped" from 14% to 19% with the win at Providence according to Bubble Watch. Bracketology has moved us from 6th team out to 5th team out.

[Xville]

Arkansas and UNC being ahead of X at this point is pretty silly. I know X got themselves into this position, but still.

I watch a lot of SEC basketball, and yes it is a very very good league, but including teams that are 4-7 in their conference at this point is silly. Teams that end up 7-11 are going to get in? Come on. Oklahoma, LSU, South Carolina, Texas, Georgia all suck.

Anyways...go 6-0 and see what happens.

[drudy23]

It's almost amazes me we're still in the hunt, but we're still in the hunt. Still a month to play.

[xubrew]

Arkansas and UNC being ahead of X at this point is pretty silly. I know X got themselves into this position, but still.

I watch a lot of SEC basketball, and yes it is a very very good league, but including teams that are 4-7 in their conference at this point is silly. Teams that end up 7-11 are going to get in? Come on. Oklahoma, LSU, South Carolina, Texas, Georgia all suck.

Anyways...go 6-0 and see what happens.

My guess is that it is very possible that they will. Depending on who it is.

The thing about the SEC is that so many of them played tough OOC schedules. A team like Oklahoma is only 3-8 in the conference, but OOC they beat Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan and all three wins were neutral floor wins. So...yeah. I could easily see Oklahoma only going 7-11 in SEC play and still getting in. I'm less big on teams like Georgia and Texas, but Oklahoma did what the committee has always said teams need to do. They played other tournament caliber teams away from home out of conference, and beat them.

[HomerCecil]

My guess is that it is very possible that they will. Depending on who it is.

The thing about the SEC is that so many of them played tough OOC schedules. A team like Oklahoma is only 3-8 in the conference, but OOC they beat Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan and all three wins were neutral floor wins. So...yeah. I could easily see Oklahoma only going 7-11 in SEC play and still getting in. I'm less big on teams like Georgia and Texas, but Oklahoma did what the committee has always said teams need to do. They played other tournament caliber teams away from home out of conference, and beat them.

Georgia handed St. John's one of its four losses on the season to this point, for what it's worth. Even South Carolina, which is 0-11 in the SEC, beat Clemson. I don't think all of these SEC teams are going to go on monster runs in the tournament, but I can't really get upset with the conference's numbers and metrics. I worry it's going to get even worse as the money continues to consolidate in the SEC.

[GoMuskies]

It's almost amazes me we're still in the hunt, but we're still in the hunt. Still a month to play.

You can definitely kinda suck and hang around the Bubble a LONG time.

[xubrew]

You can definitely kinda suck and hang around the Bubble a LONG time.

Which is probably the biggest reason why I don't want to see the tournament get any bigger.

[paulxu]

Even South Carolina, which is 0-11 in the SEC, beat Clemson.

They tend to get up for the Clemson game in any sport.

[94GRAD]

They tend to get up for the Clemson game in any sport.

As Cocks fans say, All dirt roads lead to Clemson.

[Xavier]

Teamrankings has X at a 26% this morning. Bartorvik has X making it if they win out. Which I think basically everyone would agree. Bartorvik also has X as first team out, making it 49% of time, if they do what is projected (win all but @butler) which is really the only reason to care about bubble teams.

I think it’s simple. Win out and you’re in, lose one and you’re going to need a ton of help and even then probably out.

[GoMuskies]

If you lose one (and it's Creighton or @ Butler and not a terrible loss), you'll still have a shot to redeem yourself in MSG against one (hopefully two or three!) of Marquette, St. John's, Creighton or UConn. It will just be very difficult to beat any of those at a neutral site, of course.

[xukeith]

I don't think X can get invited if Xavier has only 1 quad win.

[Xville]

I don't think X can get invited if Xavier has only 1 quad win.

Agreed. I think even if X wins out in the regular season, they are going to need a bit of help. Either Creighton and/or UCONN need to move to a Q1...then I'd feel safe knowing that if X won out, they'd be in.

[paulxu]

I'm so old I remember when we made the tournament because of our record...not someone else's.

[bjf123]

I'm so old I remember when we made the tournament because of our record...not someone else's.

Good times.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[MHettel]

I think we need to step back and look at the Quad system with a wider lens.

Of course having the most amount of Q1 wins is great. And it could get you into the tournament. But can’t Q3 & Q4 losses keep you OUT of the tournament? Can’t good wins be negated by bad losses?

Is there “value” in avoiding bad losses? Is the “value”” in having a very strong record against Q2? I’m going to assume that the committee looks at the overall profile of wins and losses relative to the Q system. I know that someone will say that there has never been a team get in with just 1 Q1 win. And also there was never a 16 seed that beat a 1 seed….until it happened…twice.

Of course getting another Q1 win will help. But we may not get the chance. I’m not sure that it’s gonna matter. Take care of business and dominate the games that are “must not lose”. Home against CU and @ Butler are huge and taking both is probably enough to get us in and dropping 1 puts us in need of some MSG magic.

But let’s get off the ledge on the Q1 wins. That’s not the only thing that matters. We still have chances to succeed at other things that matter.

Now beat the shit out of DePaul

[Xville]

I think we need to step back and look at the Quad system with a wider lens.

Of course having the most amount of Q1 wins is great. And it could get you into the tournament. But can’t Q3 & Q4 losses keep you OUT of the tournament? Can’t good wins be negated by bad losses?

Is there “value” in avoiding bad losses? Is the “value”” in having a very strong record against Q2? I’m going to assume that the committee looks at the overall profile of wins and losses relative to the Q system. I know that someone will say that there has never been a team get in with just 1 Q1 win. And also there was never a 16 seed that beat a 1 seed….until it happened…twice.

Of course getting another Q1 win will help. But we may not get the chance. I’m not sure that it’s gonna matter. Take care of business and dominate the games that are “must not lose”. Home against CU and @ Butler are huge and taking both is probably enough to get us in and dropping 1 puts us in need of some MSG magic.

But let’s get off the ledge on the Q1 wins. That’s not the only thing that matters. We still have chances to succeed at other things that matter.

Now beat the shit out of DePaul

What you say is true, I’d just feel a lot better about 1 or 2 q1 wins because x is going to be evaluated against teams that have more. Of course those same teams could have a bad loss or two where Xavier if they win out wouldn’t. I would just rather have no black marks against the resume and 1 q1 win would be.

[XUGRAD80]

If St. John’s is ranked as the 16th best team, and they are the only BE school ranked in the top 16, X is going to need to win the BE championship in order to get in…..but there’s still a lot of season to go, so who knows how that’s going to change?

[Xville]

If St. John’s is ranked as the 16th best team, and they are the only BE school ranked in the top 16, X is going to need to win the BE championship in order to get in…..but there’s still a lot of season to go, so who knows how that’s going to change?

I dunno if that really correlates. Honestly I was surprised they were even in the top 16. Their resume is pretty meh compared to the teams up there. It’s very similar to x’s in terms of the teams they have beaten

[MHettel]

I did t do any research to support what I feel is occurring, but it seems to me that the NIL/Portal impact is now being seen in the bubble.

For the last 3-4 seasons, we’ve seen the “big” programs basically strip mine the mid major all-conference players. We’re seeing far fewer bubble teams out side of the big boys. The SEC is considered to have 9 locks and 4 other teams on the bubble. That’s 13 of 16 teams that are in the hunt. Some of these teams need to finish strong just to get to .500.

This is possible due to the SEC dominating the OOC schedule. Winning OOC games is by far the biggest factor in the perception of conference strength. Who you played matters, but not as much as winnning.

Another huge factor, which I’ve mentioned a zillion times is not having too many conference games. Every conference game results in a win and a loss for a common opponent. Why dilute your SOS like that. SEC plays 18 games and the BE plays 20. Mathematically, we’re at a disadvantage.

Back to the point, I think we’ll see SEC teams dancing with under .500 records. Maybe the B10 as well. While a team like XU could be on the outside with a 12-8 record.

Are the SEC teams good. Absolutely. Bought and paid for good. Should they get 75% of their conference in the dance? No way. 10 of 16? Ok, but that’s it.

The BE needs to figure it out. We play a pretty tough non-con and then beat the crap out of each other for 20 games. Last year was 3 bids out of 11. (27%). This year is probably 4 (36%) or 5 (45 %). That’s pathetic. The answer is right in front of us.

[XUGRAD80]

The BE may have PLAYED a pretty good OOC schedule, but the problem is that they didn’t WIN enough of those games. So the SOS was good, but the conference wins weren’t. If they had won more games against highly ranked OOC opponents, then the wins against conference schools would count for more.

SJU is going to have a hard time improving their seed above a 4 because they won’t be able to play anyone the rest of the year that is ranked higher. All they can hope is that some of the higher ranked teams lose to lower rated schools. Meanwhile, bubble teams from the bigger conferences will have lots of opportunities to impress the committee by beating one of the other top seeds on the list. If the BE only has one of the top 16 ranked schools in the country, it’s going to be very difficult for a team that finishes outside the top 3-4 in the conference to even make the NCAA tourney, what with all the automatic bids from the smaller conferences, and the lack of opportunity to beat a top 16 school between now and then.

[Xville]

I did t do any research to support what I feel is occurring, but it seems to me that the NIL/Portal impact is now being seen in the bubble.

For the last 3-4 seasons, we’ve seen the “big” programs basically strip mine the mid major all-conference players. We’re seeing far fewer bubble teams out side of the big boys. The SEC is considered to have 9 locks and 4 other teams on the bubble. That’s 13 of 16 teams that are in the hunt. Some of these teams need to finish strong just to get to .500.

This is possible due to the SEC dominating the OOC schedule. Winning OOC games is by far the biggest factor in the perception of conference strength. Who you played matters, but not as much as winnning.

Another huge factor, which I’ve mentioned a zillion times is not having too many conference games. Every conference game results in a win and a loss for a common opponent. Why dilute your SOS like that. SEC plays 18 games and the BE plays 20. Mathematically, we’re at a disadvantage.

Back to the point, I think we’ll see SEC teams dancing with under .500 records. Maybe the B10 as well. While a team like XU could be on the outside with a 12-8 record.

Are the SEC teams good. Absolutely. Bought and paid for good. Should they get 75% of their conference in the dance? No way. 10 of 16? Ok, but that’s it.

The BE needs to figure it out. We play a pretty tough non-con and then beat the crap out of each other for 20 games. Last year was 3 bids out of 11. (27%). This year is probably 4 (36%) or 5 (45 %). That’s pathetic. The answer is right in front of us.

I think it just comes down to the big East having a commissioner that knows what they are doing in this new day and age. I don’t think Val has a freaking clue.

[Xville]

If you delve deep into the sec ooc records, they got fat on a really shitty acc

[waggy]

St Johns playing Georgia when they did hurt them. It's just one game, but that would have been a win under any other circumstance.

[Xville]

Good day for x. Oklahoma horrible loss, Georgia smoked, Texas losing, wvu lost, vandy lost, Arkansas lost. Sec top and bottom are starting to separate themselves. Hopefully that continues. Them getting 10-11 in vs 13-14 would be a big boost to Xavier’s chances if they take care of business.

[MHettel]

I like the “help” we got today, but I’m thinking we still control our own destiny. If we lose a game, we will be in a spot where we’re gonna need that help. But for now I think winning out with a 13-7 record will get us in. Even finishing 5th, we could be a game back of the 4 leaders, each of which has been ranked inside of the top 15 all year and if all goes well (beat Creighton) we will be 3-5 against that group. And no bad losses in conference with the other 2 losses against a respectable Nova and GTown team.

Main concern now is the health of Sorber. Need GTown to stay out of the bottom 4. 8-0 against the bottom. 2-2 against the middle. 3-5 against the top. That puts us squarely in the top half of the conference, coming in hot, and some tight losses when our best player missed a few games.

This is where Miller gets to reaffirm his stature as a top coach. No letdowns. No excuses. No games where we aren’t bringing the “do or die” intensity.

Our schedule is very favorable. But unforgiving. I see 8-9 seed potential with a strong finish.

[Xavier]

I saw on Twitter but didn’t confirm- O’conell was a ref in a deciding factor non call that cost them the game. (Obviously, it shouldn’t have come to that) but how is he still employed by the Big East after this year? He is always in controversy

[Xville]

I saw on Twitter but didn’t confirm- O’conell was a ref in a deciding factor non call that cost them the game. (Obviously, it shouldn’t have come to that) but how is he still employed by the Big East after this year? He is always in controversy

Yep it was boc and the guy that Hurley screamed and said don’t turn your back on me earlier this year. It is shocking just how bad O’Connell is. In this particular scenario though, I dunno. I guess it could have been a foul but it wasn’t like the overt tripping at the end of the Marquette game. I just think it’s hilarious seton hall beat them and UConn really effed up not in regulation but ot as well. With Hassan at like 50%, they are struggling at the pg position.

[Xville]

Torvik now says if we lose 1, x could still sneak in to Dayton. Win all 5, and x could avoid play in games. Obviously things change quickly…. Just keep winning

[Xavier]

It was about as good a weekend as you could hope for bubble wise for X. The UConn game was hard for the Q1 potential. It’s possible X catches them in the big east standings though.

X is 1.5 games back from UConn. They have @St Johns and home against Marquette left. If they lose the Nova game then I think X will catch them. If not, I could see a tie for 4th and I’m not to sure who wins that tie breaker. Frankly finishing 4th or 5th doesn’t matter really with the 4/5 seed playing each other first in the BET anyways.

[Xavgrad08]

Michigan wins at OSU. I know OSU has some decent wins and a good net, but I think they will end up a bubble team.

[xubrew]

It was about as good a weekend as you could hope for bubble wise for X. The UConn game was hard for the Q1 potential. It’s possible X catches them in the big east standings though.

X is 1.5 games back from UConn. They have @St Johns and home against Marquette left. If they lose the Nova game then I think X will catch them. If not, I could see a tie for 4th and I’m not to sure who wins that tie breaker. Frankly finishing 4th or 5th doesn’t matter really with the 4/5 seed playing each other first in the BET anyways.

I think it would have been much better for X had UConn won that game. Metrics and teamsheets aside, it's a process by committee. if Xavier lands on the bubble, some on the committee will argue for them and some will argue for other teams. The members who argue for X will point to UConn as a key win. The ones arguing against X can now say "Well, Seton Hall also beat them and they are perhaps the worst power conference team."

Having said that, I think Drake losing at home really helped X today. I really got the sense that the committee was going to put them in on the first ballot if they won out to the conference tournament. They still might, but it's far less than a guarantee. Drake is good, but they're evaluated the same as everyone else. They have very few high caliber wins, and they lost a home game to a team that's nowhere near the field. That may not kill them, but I think it will at least break a bone.

Now having said THAT, I also feel that generally speaking, the more a team feels like they have to focus on teams other than themselves, the more in trouble they likely are.

[noteggs]

Honestly, I’m at the point to say just win the last five!

[Xville]

Honestly, I’m at the point to say just win the last five!

Agreed. It’s all right there. Favored in 4 of the 5 with the butler/creighton games a point on either side. It’s doable!

[Xville]

I know we all want and expect more the remainder of this year but something that struck me this morning. If X gets two more wins in conference, that will be only the third time since the 2016-17 season (encompassing 9 seasons) they've had better than an above .500 conference record. It's been a rough few years.

[Tim]

I'm much more worried about at Butler than Creighton. I hope we win out but I'm expecting all but the road Butler game for many reasons.

[xubrew]

I'm much more worried about at Butler than Creighton. I hope we win out but I'm expecting all but the road Butler game for many reasons.

Yeah, I guess Butler is annoying like that. They are the most likely team to completely ruin a good thing for everyone.

[JTG]

I'm much more worried about at Butler than Creighton. I hope we win out but I'm expecting all but the road Butler game for many reasons.

I'm with you. The 2 Butler games are the only games I dread every year. They seem to have a knack for making life miserable for X. Talentwise they should never beat us, but they do.

[xukeith]

I know we all want and expect more the remainder of this year but something that struck me this morning. If X gets two more wins in conference, that will be only the third time since the 2016-17 season (encompassing 9 seasons) they've had better than an above .500 conference record. It's been a rough few years.

I say to myself, "Miller is a good coach. He has a 3 year plan. But these injuries start the excuses and our expectations as fans are darn depressing. "

X might have blown 2 complete recruiting classes and had very dissappointing transfer classes. X is getting worse in these tough BE seasons.

[Xavier]

For the record, if X finished with just one more loss they’d have its 4th best season in the Big East (record wise, couldn’t find an easy site to see standings wise). Having said that, it’s easy to do with only 4 seasons above .500 in the BE so far. A couple right at .500, too. So unfortunately, X isn’t actually getting worse in the BE.

[Xville]

For the record, if X finished with just one more loss they’d have its 4th best season in the Big East (record wise, couldn’t find an easy site to see standings wise). Having said that, it’s easy to do with only 4 seasons above .500 in the BE so far. A couple right at .500, too. So unfortunately, X isn’t actually getting worse in the BE.

It was a little shocking when I looked back at our conference records in the Big East. I know, it's a tough league but I was still surprised.

[muskiefan82]

I remember the day the non-losing conference record streak died. It was a very sad day

[Xville]

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

It’s not just lunardi that’s doing this, I’m seeing it in a lot of places but some of these teams that are ahead of x at this point is laughable. Unc, Indiana, Georgia, Oklahoma? Come on. What does Georgia and Oklahoma have to do to fall out of the conversation? Oklahoma is 3-9 in their conference. I know it’s the sec but this is getting stupid the leeway some of those teams in that league are getting.

Heck, can someone point me to a team that SMU has beaten to get consideration even with their gaudy record?

Just keep winning i guess is all X can do...I just hope that if they do get these remaining five that the Big East isn't going to get screwed. I firmly believe we need a new Commissioner with bigger and better voice.

[GoMuskies]

All the teams you mentioned are ahead of us in the NET Rankings. You can't really suck as much as this Xavier team has and then complain about getting screwed. Go win out and it won't be a problem.

[Xville]

All the teams you mentioned are ahead of us in the NET Rankings. You can't really suck as much as this Xavier team has and then complain about getting screwed. Go win out and it won't be a problem.

Well, the net is crap. We all know that.

And, my main issue is, is winning out going to be enough? I feel that the teams I mentioned are getting the benefit of the doubt no matter how much they lose. I’m concerned that winning out may not be enough. Maybe I’m making a mountain out of a mole hill, but I’m a bit concerned, especially with how I believe the big East got effed last year.

[Xavier]

It would be enough for sure. The question I have is- I know conference tournament doesn’t impact bids much at all, but can NET rankings still change. Say Creighton goes on to win BE tournament and move up to a Q1 it changes our metrics a bit (compared to other bubble teams).

Regardless I agree with GO. It’s kinda hard to get screwed out of the tournament. Win out and we’d be fine, but we had the chances too. The thing that stinks to me is if Creighton ends at NET 32, 2 spots would be the difference between making it and not. Regardless, just look how bubble teams are collapsing. It will continue. Win out and we’re fine.

[Xville]

It would be enough for sure. The question I have is- I know conference tournament doesn’t impact bids much at all, but can NET rankings still change. Say Creighton goes on to win BE tournament and move up to a Q1 it changes our metrics a bit (compared to other bubble teams).

Regardless I agree with GO. It’s kinda hard to get screwed out of the tournament. Win out and we’d be fine, but we had the chances too. The thing that stinks to me is if Creighton ends at NET 32, 2 spots would be the difference between making it and not. Regardless, just look how bubble teams are collapsing. It will continue. Win out and we’re fine.

I bet seton hall thought that last year as well. I think x has a better resume if they win out, but hall was 20-11, 13-7. Don’t remember their breakdown of quad 1 wins bad losses but I dunno. Probably just overthinking this

[XUMIOH12]

I bet seton hall thought that last year as well. I think x has a better resume if they win out, but hall was 20-11, 13-7. Don’t remember their breakdown of quad 1 wins bad losses but I dunno. Probably just overthinking this

Their resume was actually pretty solid last year, but the predictive metrics/rankings on them were not good. I checked the NET rankings from the day of the selection show (This includes their 0-1 BET record). They also had 0 out of conference wins of note. Lost to all power conference opponents in the non conference schedule.

Seton Hall was 67 NET. With 5-8 Q1 / 4-3 Q2 / 2-1 Q3 / 9-0 Q4

They finished the season 50th in Kenpom, but that is after going 5-0 to win the NIT, so they were slightly worse at the time of selection show. Same with BPI, finished 53rd there.

Their predictive metrics/rankings last year were actually all very similar to where last year's Xavier team was ranked.

[xuwillie]

Their resume was actually pretty solid last year, but the predictive metrics/rankings on them were not good. I checked the NET rankings from the day of the selection show (This includes their 0-1 BET record).

Seton Hall was 67 NET. With 5-8 Q1 / 4-3 Q2 / 2-1 Q3 / 9-0 Q4

They finished the season 50th in Kenpom, but that is after going 5-0 to win the NIT, so they were slightly worse at the time of selection show.

Those numbers are Surprising, clearly a team that should have gotten in. Not seeing X anywhere close to getting in with their numbers

[XUMIOH12]

Those numbers are Surprising, clearly a team that should have gotten in. Not seeing X anywhere close to getting in with their numbers

Yeah based strictly on a W/L and Quad standpoint they probably deserved a bid. But they were hurt by their other metrics being low. As well as doing absolutely nothing in the non conference against power conference teams.

If Xavier were to win out, or even just lose 1. They'd have less Q1 than last year's Seton Hall team, but they'd be 20+ spots better in the predictive metrics and rankings. Doesn't mean they'd get a bid, but they certainly would still put up a VERY bubbly case.

[xuwillie]

This is where metrics make zero sense to me. Is it because they played 9 q4 teams? Looks like they only had one bad loss all year

[XUMIOH12]

This is where metrics make zero sense to me. Is it because they played 9 q4 teams? Looks like they only had one bad loss all year

I mean its all a mix, the difference between last 8 in and first 8 out is minimal. Just depends what the committee wants to look at.

They do seem to value beating tournament teams away from home though. Last year Seton Hall did that zero times.

[xubrew]

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

It’s not just lunardi that’s doing this, I’m seeing it in a lot of places but some of these teams that are ahead of x at this point is laughable. Unc, Indiana, Georgia, Oklahoma? Come on. What does Georgia and Oklahoma have to do to fall out of the conversation? Oklahoma is 3-9 in their conference. I know it’s the sec but this is getting stupid the leeway some of those teams in that league are getting.

Heck, can someone point me to a team that SMU has beaten to get consideration even with their gaudy record?

Just keep winning i guess is all X can do...I just hope that if they do get these remaining five that the Big East isn't going to get screwed. I firmly believe we need a new Commissioner with bigger and better voice.

It's worth pointing out that he has UC San Diego and George Mason seeded ahead of the First Four. How much does he think they would drop if one or both ended up needing the at-large bid?

If Drake and UC San Diego both win out until their conference tournaments, I think the committee takes them. I obviously can't prove that, and others may disagree, but it is my own personal opinion that this particular committee will select those two teams if they win out. I could also see them possibly selecting UC Irvine simply because of the sheer number of games they have won away from home. Again, I could be completely wrong, but they have the type of profile that the committee NORMALLY (albeit not always) places inside the bubble.

Another thing that I noticed about the committee's top 16 teams this past week. Where a team tops out carries a lot of weight. Kentucky has some garbage in the middle of their profile, but the top of thier profile is outstanding and the committee gave them a protected seed. That is NOT a good sign for Xavier because the top of X's profile is not that great. It's also bad for UC Irvine, who I know I just said might get selected, but I'm just saying. Perhaps they're both left out.

Just a side note, Yale does not have the profile and won't get in without winning the Ivy Tournament, but holy crap are they good!! They didn't get up to their full speed right away, and therefore didn't quite get the wins early in the season that they needed, but February Yale would blow November Yale off the floor, and if Yale were to play the four teams that Lunardi has on his 10 line, I think they'd blow all four of them off hte court.

[GoMuskies]

Well, the net is crap. We all know that.


OK, but KenPom also lists all of those teams above Xavier with the exception of Indiana. The Hoosiers are #53 to Xavier's #52. UC is #54.

[Xville]

OK, but KenPom also lists all of those teams above Xavier with the exception of Indiana. The Hoosiers are #53 to Xavier's #52. UC is #54.

I’d argue that’s evidence that kenpom is crap too lol. I’m kidding about Kenpom partly, and x did this to themselves so I get being positioned where we are, but I think others around us are getting the benefit of the doubt for losses while x isn’t.

Regarding brew’s point about mid majors getting in, If recent history proves anything, it’s that the benefit of the doubt goes to the big 4 leagues over anyone, and yeah I don’t think anyone outside of the big East considers us on par with those 4 no matter how many titles the conference has in the last decade. Big East has a reach, messaging, marketing problem. I consider us one of the best leagues in the country, I’m not sure anyone else that doesn’t have financial interest or a fan of the team in the league believes that.

[HenryMuto]

I think Xavier needs to win 4 out of the last 5 to have a decent chance to get at large. That is asking a lot. That quad 1 record is ugly. Sure could have used that win at St John's up 16 in the 2nd half that is the one that got away you had to have.

[GoMuskies]

4 of 5 is NIT unless we get 2 big wins at MSG before losing in the finals. It's win out or bust.

[Xville]

I think Xavier needs to win 4 out of the last 5 to have a decent chance to get at large. That is asking a lot. That quad 1 record is ugly. Sure could have used that win at St John's up 16 in the 2nd half that is the one that got away you had to have.

X isn’t getting in with one more loss in the reg season. At absolute best x would be last one in before bid thieve season starts, and we all know there will be some.

[Xavier]

4 of 5 is NIT unless we get 2 big wins at MSG before losing in the finals. It's win out or bust.

Even then I wouldn’t feel comfortable going into selection Sunday. A small shred of hope, but committee just doesn’t put any emphasis on conference tournaments.

[GoMuskies]

In KenPom Xavier moved from #52 to #52 with the win.

[Xavier]

Did you expect a big jump with a Q3 win? Lol

[murray87]

Not sure if this has been brought up but I've recently heard "the experts" talking up 14 SEC teams making the tourney!! Is that realistic?

[JTG]

I'm starting to be in the show Val the door camp. The league gets very little run nationally. UCONN and Nova fizzling, doesn't help. Last night's local sports segment in Indy didn't even mention Butler's game at X. Part of that is Butler being 5th in the local pecking order, but the BE gets no run at all. The only team generating publicity is St Johns and Pitino. Publicity and media exposure needs a big upgrade. Not sure if you hire a talking head, or an ex coach. And I guess it's sexist but find a guy, and one with a big mouth.

[Xville]

I'm starting to be in the show Val the door camp. The league gets very little run nationally. UCONN and Nova fizzling, doesn't help. Last night's local sports segment in Indy didn't even mention Butler's game at X. Part of that is Butler being 5th in the local pecking order, but the BE gets no run at all. The only team generating publicity is St Johns and Pitino. Publicity and media exposure needs a big upgrade. Not sure if you hire a talking head, or an ex coach. And I guess it's sexist but find a guy, and one with a big mouth.

She’s not good at her job. Big East has a serious marketing and perception issue nationally and she seems to have no spine whatsoever. The big east needs a yomark or Sankey type.

[murray87]

Jay Wright for BE commish?

[SM#24]

Not sure if this has been brought up but I've recently heard "the experts" talking up 14 SEC teams making the tourney!! Is that realistic?

I would say 14 are bubble or better. Only LSU and SC are out at this point. I think the actual number will be 12.

[XUMIOH12]

In KenPom Xavier moved from #52 to #52 with the win.

51! I mean we beat Butler lol

[XUMIOH12]

.

[XUMIOH12]

I think Xavier needs to win 4 out of the last 5 to have a decent chance to get at large. That is asking a lot. That quad 1 record is ugly. Sure could have used that win at St John's up 16 in the 2nd half that is the one that got away you had to have.

The SJU game plus a few others. Any of @SJU, @TCU, @CIN, @CONN, vsMARQ would have gone a long way. The Q1 record is very ugly. I feel as though Xavier is going to be left out wishing they'd held on to one of those games. Could be the difference between in and out.

[Xville]

Even if we win out, going 1-8 in q1 games is going to be a tough sell for inclusion imo.

[XUMIOH12]

Even if we win out, going 1-8 in q1 games is going to be a tough sell for inclusion imo.

Agreed. And 1-9 currently, since TCU is up to a Q1 L now

[GoMuskies]

We'll end up with another Q1 opportunity or two (or three!) in MSG.

[Xville]

I would say 14 are bubble or better. Only LSU and SC are out at this point. I think the actual number will be 12.

I agree that 12 will probably end up being the number, possibly 11. Based on schedules, Oklahoma and Georgia are going to keep losing. They both kinda suck, but have been propped up by a good SEC.

It's going to be interesting for the committee about considering SEC teams that go 7-11 on conference. I can see that happening for teams like Vandy and Arkansas. I don't care how good their metrics are, or how good the league is. When you are 4 games under .500, i don't think you should be invited to the dance.

[Xville]

I wonder if the committee will take a deep look at the fact that X lost 2 of their quad 1 games with Free sidelined and X was right down to the wire in both of those games. Plus, X got BOC'd in the Marquette game, and BOC'd in SJU.

[XUMIOH12]

I agree that 12 will probably end up being the number, possibly 11. Based on schedules, Oklahoma and Georgia are going to keep losing. They both kinda suck, but have been propped up by a good SEC.

It's going to be interesting for the committee about considering SEC teams that go 7-11 on conference. I can see that happening for teams like Vandy and Arkansas. I don't care how good their metrics are, or how good the league is. When you are 4 games under .500, i don't think you should be invited to the dance.

Oklahoma was being propped up by their undefeated out of conference schedule that included wins over Michigan, Arizona and Louisville. Playing in the SEC has been their demise as they are on the verge of playing themselves out of the field.

[Xavier]

So…there is no pac12 this year, right? Is there one extra at large bid? Wasn’t sure with all the conference shuffle.

Teamrankings gives X a 40% chance as of this morning. It’s pretty big turnaround from that St. John’s home loss. Too many close losses that we handed over, just one of those switches and we’re fine. I just think Creighton is a matchup nightmare. I don’t see us beating them

[Xville]

Oklahoma was being propped up by their undefeated out of conference schedule that included wins over Michigan, Arizona and Louisville. Playing in the SEC has been their demise as they are on the verge of playing themselves out of the field.

I understand that...but when you are 3-10 in any other league, you're not even in consideration at this point.

[Xville]

So…there is no pac12 this year, right? Is there one extra at large bid? Wasn’t sure with all the conference shuffle.

Teamrankings gives X a 40% chance as of this morning. It’s pretty big turnaround from that St. John’s home loss. Too many close losses that we handed over, just one of those switches and we’re fine. I just think Creighton is a matchup nightmare. I don’t see us beating them

Others may disagree, but with Creighton, I'd really like to try Hugley a lot. If anything, he at least makes Kalk work on offense. He's not the best defender by any means, but hes a hundred times better than Free, and can at least rough Kalk up a bit. Use all five fouls

[XUMIOH12]

I understand that...but when you are 3-10 in any other league, you're not even in consideration at this point.

Exactly, they are beginning to get dropped from the field by some. And based on their schedule remaining, I don't see how they end up winning enough games.

[Xville]

Exactly, they are beginning to get dropped from the field by some. And based on their schedule remaining, I don't see how they end up winning enough games.

Yeah with their schedule, I agree they are going to play themselves out. I think Georgia will do the same… that leaves Arkansas, vandy, Texas. I think Texas makes it because their schedule is pretty doable the rest of the way.. Arkansas and vandy are going to be right on the bubble line imo

[XUMIOH12]

It's worth pointing out that he has UC San Diego and George Mason seeded ahead of the First Four. How much does he think they would drop if one or both ended up needing the at-large bid?

If Drake and UC San Diego both win out until their conference tournaments, I think the committee takes them. I obviously can't prove that, and others may disagree, but it is my own personal opinion that this particular committee will select those two teams if they win out. I could also see them possibly selecting UC Irvine simply because of the sheer number of games they have won away from home. Again, I could be completely wrong, but they have the type of profile that the committee NORMALLY (albeit not always) places inside the bubble.

Another thing that I noticed about the committee's top 16 teams this past week. Where a team tops out carries a lot of weight. Kentucky has some garbage in the middle of their profile, but the top of thier profile is outstanding and the committee gave them a protected seed. That is NOT a good sign for Xavier because the top of X's profile is not that great. It's also bad for UC Irvine, who I know I just said might get selected, but I'm just saying. Perhaps they're both left out.

Just a side note, Yale does not have the profile and won't get in without winning the Ivy Tournament, but holy crap are they good!! They didn't get up to their full speed right away, and therefore didn't quite get the wins early in the season that they needed, but February Yale would blow November Yale off the floor, and if Yale were to play the four teams that Lunardi has on his 10 line, I think they'd blow all four of them off hte court.

I always like seeing these teams get in, but when I look at Irvine, I just don't see it with their resume. George Mason kind of in the same boat in my opinion. UCSD and Drake I think have a good case to get in if they win out regular season. Xavier better hope that those two teams win their conference tournaments!

[waggy]

T-Rank has X's efficiency over the last 10 games at #30. Maybe meaningless, but X has been playing like an at large tourney team of late.

[Xville]

Vandy and Arkansas both lose. Been a great few days for x

[Xville]

On the other side of the coin, UCONN and Creighton are now 36 and 37 in the net respectively. Don't know why Creighton dropped 3 spots last night...some opponent must have dropped quads or something. I don't think there is enough runway for either of these teams to get to the Top 30, but you never know.

Just keep winning. 4 left.

[Xville]

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

It’s laughable at this point. Oklahoma as first team out. Bottom of the sec getting way too much love. I get it, sec and espn are in bed together but come on

[GoMuskies]

We moved up a spot, right? After beating Butler. Hard to complain too much.

KenPom ranks Oklahoma right ahead of us. Net rankings has Oklahoma behind us by 2 spots. Massey composite rankings (52 different ranking systems) has Oklahoma 2 spots ahead of us. Objectively speaking, there's just nothing to separate Xavier from Oklahoma. Maybe you can quibble with Oklahoma being four spots higher on Joe's Bubble list, but objectively they're in about the same position fighting for a spot.

[xubrew]

Keith Gill, who is the Sun Belt Commissioner and who is on the committee, said in this interview that the new WAB metric is something the committee is paying particularly close attention to. X's WAB is 54, and the OOC WAB is 70, which is not awful, but also not the best.


In addition to the advanced metrics already on the official team sheets (such as BPI/KPI/KenPom) the Committee received some new metrics for this season (Torvik/WAB): how have you made use of these metrics, and do you have a favorite 1? What is helpful about the WAB is that it helps you compare schedules/results. It is very beneficial to take a team with less Quad 1 opportunities and compare them to a power-conference team: if we did not have WAB then it would be like comparing apples and oranges.

https://hoopshd.com/2025/02/20/sowing-the-seeds-we-love-hoopshd-interviews-ncaa-selection-committee-member-keith-gill/

[GoMuskies]

WAB = Wins Above Bubble for those of you who were planning to look it up (like I just had to).

And Oklahoma's WAB is 36 to Xavier's 54.

[Xville]

We moved up a spot, right? After beating Butler. Hard to complain too much.

KenPom ranks Oklahoma right ahead of us. Net rankings has Oklahoma behind us by 2 spots. Massey composite rankings (52 different ranking systems) has Oklahoma 2 spots ahead of us. Objectively speaking, there's just nothing to separate Xavier from Oklahoma. Maybe you can quibble with Oklahoma being four spots higher on Joe's Bubble list, but objectively they're in about the same position fighting for a spot.

My issue then is the computer game. Last year it was the big 12, this years it’s the sec. The sec is good at the top don’t get me wrong and they won against the teams in non-con but if you look closer it was mainly at the acc’s expense which is a garbage conference this year. They were 5-4 against the big East for instance.

IMO no matter how strong the league is, when you are 3-10 in it, you shouldn’t even be a consideration at that point. Vandy, Arkansas and Georgia are also getting propped up with numbers that don’t match the quality of their teams.

[xubrew]

WAB = Wins Above Bubble for those of you who were planning to look it up (like I just had to).

And Oklahoma's WAB is 36 to Xavier's 54.

It's an interesting concept. It essentially creates a mythical team that is squarely on the bubble, then measures how that mythical team would do against each team on your schedule, and then compares your actual performance to the mythical team's mythical performance. So Oklahoma has done better against their actual schedule then this mythical 45ish place team would have done, and Xavier has not done quite as well.

[Xville]

It's an interesting concept. It essentially creates a mythical team that is squarely on the bubble, then measures how that mythical team would do against each team on your schedule, and then compares your actual performance to the mythical team's mythical performance. So Oklahoma has done better against their actual schedule then this mythical 45ish place team would have done, and Xavier has not done quite as well.

Any idea how exactly Torvik does his team rankings? Im curious because in that, Xavier is 45 and Oklahoma is 60. Pretty big discrepancy, and unlike a lot of the other computer rankings previously mentioned.

[xubrew]

Any idea how exactly Torvik does his team rankings? Im curious because in that, Xavier is 45 and Oklahoma is 60. Pretty big discrepancy, and unlike a lot of the other computer rankings previously mentioned.

I do not. I believe that it's a similar concept, but as far as how he goes about calculating it I really don't know. I'm not downplaying the importance of his metric. I've just never looked in to how he goes about calculating it.

[Xville]

I do not. I believe that it's a similar concept, but as far as how he goes about calculating it I really don't know. I'm not downplaying the importance of his metric. I've just never looked in to how he goes about calculating it.

Cool thank you. Yeah I was just curious ...it looks like quite a mix of WAB, Kenpom, and Net "stuff" in there but didn't understand how he sorted it.

[MHettel]

WAB = Wins Above Bubble for those of you who were planning to look it up (like I just had to).

And Oklahoma's WAB is 36 to Xavier's 54.

What the fuck does it mean? What are the inputs to it? Is it like WAR for baseball where everyone uses it to evaluate players and yet nobody can explain what it means?

I hope to god the committee understands these metrics. Otherwise, why have a committee at all. Just let the computer decide.

[MHettel]

It's an interesting concept. It essentially creates a mythical team that is squarely on the bubble, then measures how that mythical team would do against each team on your schedule, and then compares your actual performance to the mythical team's mythical performance. So Oklahoma has done better against their actual schedule then this mythical 45ish place team would have done, and Xavier has not done quite as well.

So instead of taking actual results of actual games, this approach compares simulated results of a fake team to your teams simulated performance against the fake team. Is that right?

And we use that?

[xubrew]

So instead of taking actual results of actual games, this approach compares simulated results of a fake team to your teams simulated performance against the fake team. Is that right?

And we use that?

Not really. My initial description was a little confusing.

It's the win probability of each opponent you've played against a bubble team. Each D1 team has a value (that's always changing). If you're playing a team like...say...Cleveland State at home, and it's determined that the win probability of a bubble team beating Cleveland State at home is 80%, you essentially get a +0.2 if you win the game, and a -0.8 if you do not. So, the actual results matter. Then they're all tallied and averaged for each team, and each team is then ranked based on that average. Some opponents will move you way up the list if you win. Others will barely move you at all.

[GoMuskies]

Oklahoma beating Miss St isn't ideal.

[X-band '01]

But Wake losing at NC State would be, at least from the vantage point of fighting with another bubble team.

[Xville]

Wvu got smoked so that helps. Simple but I think if x goes 4-0 everything else will just work itself out

[Xavier]

Xavier has gotten about as good of help as you could ask for the last week or so, including some results today. I wouldn’t expect that to continue (see Oklahoma, and Vandy is currently in control) but up till now it’s been shocking how many have fell Xaviers way. Oklahoma improves to 4-10 in the SEC. Will be really interesting how committee looks at SEC bottom teams

Xville is right though. 4-0 is fine. Plugging those numbers in on Bartorvik today gave X a likely 10 seed. Really only watch other bubble teams to see if there’s a shot X goes 3-1, 2-1 in BET could they sneak in.

[X-band '01]

Vandy now trailing at home against Ole Miss - I still think they're in but now they'd be hanging by a thread should they lose.

I thought Pitt had a case to be in the field, but they shot themselves in the crotch with a loss at Notre Dame.

[MHettel]

Not really. My initial description was a little confusing.

It's the win probability of each opponent you've played against a bubble team. Each D1 team has a value (that's always changing). If you're playing a team like...say...Cleveland State at home, and it's determined that the win probability of a bubble team beating Cleveland State at home is 80%, you essentially get a +0.2 if you win the game, and a -0.8 if you do not. So, the actual results matter. Then they're all tallied and averaged for each team, and each team is then ranked based on that average. Some opponents will move you way up the list if you win. Others will barely move you at all.

That’s a better explanation, but the operative phrase is “it’s determined that the win probability…..”. That is the definition of a “black box”. Nobody knows what’s in that black box and they just move on to the rest of the explanation. It’s insane.

[HenryMuto]

Wake Forest loss is probably better for X than worse even though that is one of the teams X beat I dont think that win will change in value so them losing is good in the battle for the bubble if anyone the win means if they are both neck and neck you would guess they would side with the team that won even though it was at home.

TCU lost that helps since they were gaining momentum.

ND beating Pitt should almost put a nail in that coffin.

SMU losing at home to Clemson right now it be big to keep SMU from getting a quad 1 win. If they lose they would be 0-5 vs quad 1 if they win 1-4.

[HenryMuto]

Baylor not really on the bubble but a loss to 1-14 Colorado can't hurt. Maybe they go on a losing streak.

[HenryMuto]

SMU loses that is a big one

[profson]

Well, the SMU result is good because if they had won it would have been a big boost for them, but the loss just hurts them just a bit because it was the expected result and thus was largely baked into the projections.
Put another way the larger movements occur when a bubble team beats a significantly higher team or loses to a significantly lower one.
X has two challenges
- being below the line it needs good days, not merely flat ones
- the possible effect of bid thieves lurks.

[X-band '01]

That hurts SMU a lot more than you think. The Mustangs can't get a win against a potential NCAA Tournament team until the ACC Tournament now. They lost to Duke, Clemson, Louisville and Wake at home (not to mention they also lost at home to Mississippi State). Their remaining schedule is the West Coast swing (Cal/Stanford) and then a home game against Cuse and a road game at Florida State. That ain't gonna cut it.

Another development is that South Carolina may finally win a conference game tonight. Texas would be the victim of this damaging loss.

[HenryMuto]

Another development is that South Carolina may finally win a conference game tonight. Texas would be the victim of this damaging loss.

Too bad my Kentucky Wildcats could hold onto that lead in Texas that would have ended them

[GoMuskies]

Any time Kentucky loses is good.

[Xavgrad08]

Arkansas up 8 at home vs Missouri with 2 minutes left. Was really hoping Missouri would win this. Texas is currently getting smoked at South Carolina.

[MHettel]

Does anyone know why Duke played Illinois today?

Kinda late for a non-con game

[X-band '01]

Because they knew the ACC would suck and actually gave themselves room for a decent opponent late in the year.

[Xavier]

Duke has been wanting to add high profile game to non-con late in the season. Illinois has to, I expect this to become a trend as the years go on.

[GoMuskies]

Growing up as a fan of Louisville in the '80s/'90s when they played Metro games during the week and high profile non-conference games most weekends, I cannot endorse this trend strongly enough. It gets stale seeing the same teams playing each other starting in January through mid March. Conference realignment has kept things a bit fresher in that regard, but I still would love to see more quality non-conference games throughout the season.

[GoMuskies]

Also, if Gonzaga loses again in the regular season and doesn't win the WCC Tournament, they should 100% be out.

[X-band '01]

In theory, I'd agree, but Santa Clara and San Francisco are actually respectable teams by WCC standards.

[GoMuskies]

In theory, I'd agree, but Santa Clara and San Francisco are actually respectable teams by WCC standards.

That's fine, but what is so strong about Gonzaga's resume today. Much less with a loss to one of those two.

[GoMuskies]

Don't like Indiana beating Purdue.

[xubrew]

Growing up as a fan of Louisville in the '80s/'90s when they played Metro games during the week and high profile non-conference games most weekends, I cannot endorse this trend strongly enough. It gets stale seeing the same teams playing each other starting in January through mid March. Conference realignment has kept things a bit fresher in that regard, but I still would love to see more quality non-conference games throughout the season.

This would take way too much cooperation to ever happen, but I would love if one week in January, February, and March were "Open Weeks" where there were no conference games.

One of the pushbacks to this suggestion is "Well, if we do that, then we'd have to start conference play in December."

And my response to that is...."AND!!??"

I actually think it kind of sucks for leagues to begin conference play before students even get back to campus.

[Xavier]

Butler is 2 spots from being a Q1 road win. Still think it all really doesn’t matter unless you’re praying for an at large with a loss before BET. Win out and in, lose one and get BE champ game and you got a really slim shot but still doubtful.