Brackets and Rankings: 2024-2025

[MHettel]

This would take way too much cooperation to ever happen, but I would love if one week in January, February, and March were "Open Weeks" where there were no conference games.

One of the pushbacks to this suggestion is "Well, if we do that, then we'd have to start conference play in December."

And my response to that is...."AND!!??"

I actually think it kind of sucks for leagues to begin conference play before students even get back to campus.

It would be interesting to see the whole “schedule” get reworked. 4-5 warm up game early. Start conference in mid Nov. thanksgiving tournaments. More conference. Then a sprinkling of 3-4 solid non conference games from mid December on.

It would be interesting to root against a conference for one night, and then for them the next.

The non conference SOS and record essentially define the conference strength.

[XUGRAD80]

Growing up as a fan of Louisville in the '80s/'90s…….

That should never be mentioned in polite society. :medicated:

[GoMuskies]

Up to 28% on Bubble Watch. Presumably there will be carnage for us to sit back and watch this week, so I'm VERY interested to see what Bubble Watch has to say about us a week from now if we manage to beat Creighton Saturday.

[JTG]

Butler is 2 spots from being a Q1 road win. Still think it all really doesn’t matter unless you’re praying for an at large with a loss before BET. Win out and in, lose one and get BE champ game and you got a really slim shot but still doubtful.

Mc Caffery's brother was just convicted of vehicular homicide in Iowa.

[XUMIOH12]

Mc Caffery's brother was just convicted of vehicular homicide in Iowa.

The brother as in the Butler coach or the Butler player? lol. When was that from?

[JTG]

[QUOTE=XUMIOH12;798095]The brother as in the Butler coach or the Butler player? lol. When was that
The player at Butler. It actually happened in Oct of 23. It was an old headline, ans it wasn't homicide it was negligence. Somehow it was just a fine and lost his license for 6 months. But that does explain the commercials on TV in Indy where hr talks about depression.

[SkyWalker]

Jerry Palm, CBS, currently has us playing Arkansas in Dayton. 4 Big East teams in the tournament and none of them name UCONN.

[GoMuskies]

Xavier dropped from 28% to 27% on Bubble Watch while idle yesterday.

Also, Saturday is March 1, so Xavier will be playing meaningful basketball in March. So we got that going for us. Which is nice.

[GoMuskies]

Moved up to 4th team out in latest Bracketology. Those above us to root against: Nebraska, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Wake (though we kind of want them to keep winning), UNC, Indiana and SMU. Boise, Mason and Georgia are on our tails. Nova is next, but I'm not worried about them.

I know we all feel pretty good about our chances if we win out...but given the single quad one win (and it doesn't look like that is changing), I'll feel a LOT better if we win out and then proceed to advance to Friday night at MSG.

[Xville]

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions


Whatever. Beat creighton. Sick of these other bubble teams not getting dinged for consistently losing games

[Xavier]

I’m surprised at how much people look at ESPN for bracket/bubble talk. Teamrankings gives X a 44% (38% at large). We will make it if we win out.

[GoMuskies]

ESPN is prominent and updates regularly. it's all just somewhat educated guessing.

[Xville]

I’m surprised at how much people look at ESPN for bracket/bubble talk. Teamrankings gives X a 44% (38% at large). We will make it if we win out.

Yeah i look at about all of it and torvik/team rankings have a positive view of x but bracketologists as of this moment in time sure don’t. Bracket matrix has x about the same as lunardi. When x beats creighton, id hope for a significant jump by bracketologists.

I get where x is, but some of these teams I just don’t get their inclusion. Wake? Ohio state? Oklahoma I’ve discussed ad nauseam

[Xavier]

Just another source, sure. Just they are usually one of the worst, and they absolutely do stuff for clicks. But it’s info, and like you said it’s mostly guessing. The main thing right now is most of the bracketology stuff says there’s like 7 teams in play for last 4 in and it’s complete guesses

[GoMuskies]

Oklahoma has 5 quad 1 wins. If you just look a their profies without looking at conference record, I'd have a hard time making a case for Xavier over Oklahoma.

Ditto Indiana with 4 Quad 1 wins and zero losses outside Quad 1.

UNC and Xavier are like identical twins at this point....and they're pretty ugly.

Wake I agree with. Their profile doesn't look any better than ours UNLESS the NCAA really has fallen in love with that WAB metric. Plus, we should get SOME bump between the two of us for smoking them head to head. Presumably, they don't actually compare teams that way, but if it came down to taking one last team, you'd think that would play some part.

[Xville]

Oklahoma has 5 quad 1 wins. If you just look a their profies without looking at conference record, I'd have a hard time making a case for Xavier over Oklahoma.

Ditto Indiana with 4 Quad 1 wins and zero losses outside Quad 1.

UNC and Xavier are like identical twins at this point....and they're pretty ugly.

Wake I agree with. Their profile doesn't look any better than ours UNLESS the NCAA really has fallen in love with that WAB metric. Plus, we should get SOME bump between the two of us for smoking them head to head. Presumably, they don't actually compare teams that way, but if it came down to taking one last team, you'd think that would play some part.

My opinion..when you are 6 games under.500 in your conference, you shouldn't even be in the conversation, no matter how many Quad 1 wins you have. At best they are going to finish 6-12 based on their remaining schedule. Shouldn't that be weighted pretty heavily?

IU has lost to Northwestern, Iowa, Nebraska and has beaten 2 teams that would be in today. X has at least beaten three with Wake, Uconn and Marquette. Maybe they get a fourth saturday. On the flipside X has lost to Gtown, UC and TCU. So, yeah I guess they are around the same.

[GoMuskies]

If the Selection Committee weighs all 31 games you play equally, then probably not? They have essentially an identical record to us, 5x the Quad 1 wins and only the single Q3 loss to our none that weighs in on our side of the argument.

Also, if they end up 6-12, that will mean SEVEN quad 1 wins. Seems like lock city. More interesting would be if they end up 5-13, 18-13 overall with 6 quad 1 wins.

[xubrew]

ESPN is prominent and updates regularly. it's all just somewhat educated guessing.

I don't ever look at ESPN, but I love that they do it. It gets people talking about college basketball and gives a lot of the games throughout the season a narrative and storyline. Having said that...

They are just guessing. And the way they frame their information does not match how the selection committee selects and seeds the teams. And, it makes sense that it doesn't. If they were to just replicate what the committee does throughout the season it would be boring and confusing and not very useful. But when people look at this and say "Okay, we are five spots back!" that's really not how it works.

So the 12 committee members are given primary and secondary conferences they are supposed to monitor. Each week they meet (obviously not in person) and they report on their conferences, and what the big games to pay attention to are, and what the key injuries were, and they just basically provide an overall assessment for all 31 conferences. They ask each other questions, they debate and discuss, but from the first week of November all the way trough to the end this is what they are doing.

No one is actually selected until the first day. There is what is called "the first ballot." Each member votes for up to 37 teams that they feel should absolutely be in the field regardless of what happens in their remaining conference tournament games. Any team that gets 10 out of 12 votes is placed into the tournament. And once that happens, they are in. A team can be removed if 10 of the 12 members decide to remove them, but I've been told (and I believe it) that no team that has ever been selected on the first ballot was then later removed.

All the teams that got 9 votes or fewer, along with all conference first place finishers, are placed onto the nomination board. A second ballot is taken for any teams that are not on the nomination board, but that the committee members feel they still want to look at.

Then, it takes ten votes to move a team from the nomination board onto the tournament board, and they select 37 teams. Every time one of those 37 teams wins a conference tournament and gets an auto bid, they select another team. Now they DO select contengency teams. If it gets to be Saturday, and teams who are already in the field are still playing in their conference tournaments, they'll go ahead and select which team will get the at-large bid if that school wins their conference tourney. Last year was odd. They selected five contengency teams for the A10, MWC, ACC, AAC, and Pac 12, and NONE opened up. A team who was not in the field, and would not have otherwise made the field, won each of those five conference tournaments. So, when you hear people say that Indiana State got left out, in a sense that is true, but they WERE selected. They were the top contingency team. It's just that their spot never opened.

Anyway, that's a lot of words to say that what ESPN and other bracketologists are doing is not the same process that the committee actually uses. But, it's close enough, and it's great for the fans to look at and talk about, and it does give a snapshot reference to of generally where everyone stands and what their chances of making it are.

[GoMuskies]

It doesn't help matters that the computers just hate this Xavier team. Xavier's KenPom is #52. Other than Drake and Wake, no one below us is seriously in the at-large discussion. The Massey Composite ratings have us #51. Indiana, Boise and Wake are the three teams that follow us in that composite. In those ratings, Drake is right above us. Again, no one else seriously in the at-large discussions is below us.

I REALLY hope we beat Creighton, of course, and I REALLY hope it gives us a nice boost with the computers.

[xubrew]

It doesn't help matters that the computers just hate this Xavier team. Xavier's KenPom is #52. Other than Drake and Wake, no one below us is seriously in the at-large discussion. The Massey Composite ratings have us #51. Indiana, Boise and Wake are the three teams that follow us in that composite. In those ratings, Drake is right above us. Again, no one else seriously in the at-large discussions is below us.

I REALLY hope we beat Creighton, of course, and I REALLY hope it gives us a nice boost with the computers.

If X wins out and avoids a loss in the Big East quarters, I think they're in. X is essentially in the same spot they were in the last time they made the Elite Eight! So...there's that!!

[Xville]

this is the problem that I have with the computers. A big part of why X is where it is in a lot of computers is because they didn't beat the shitty teams by enough points in November and December. IMO, it's a really stupid way of evaluating teams. X didn't help themslves by not winning some of those Q1 games, but its also because we didn't beat northwestern tech valley state institute by 40.

[GoMuskies]

Anyway, that's a lot of words to say that what ESPN and other bracketologists are doing is not the same process that the committee actually uses.

None of that is really inconsistent with what ESPN is doing. ESPN is just trying to pick the teams that 10 Committee members are going to include on the first ballot (the locks) and the teams that stay on the board and who will eventually make it in off that board (if Selection Sunday was today). All that process is irrelevant to what ESPN (and other bracketologists) do/show. At the end of the day, after all that process the Committee has to pick their teams. ESPN (and others) are just trying to predict who they'll pick (or who they'd pick as of a certain day).

[GoMuskies]

this is the problem that I have with the computers. A big part of why X is where it is in a lot of computers is because they didn't beat the shitty teams by enough points in November and December. IMO, it's a really stupid way of evaluating teams. X didn't help themslves by not winning some of those Q1 games, but its also because we didn't beat northwestern tech valley state institute by 40.

I mean, how else do you evaluate teams? You didn't blow out shitty teams, and you didn't beat any of the good teams you played (save for Marquette). What, exactly, is to recommend about a team you can say both of those things about?

[Xville]

If X wins out and avoids a loss in the Big East quarters, I think they're in. X is essentially in the same spot they were in the last time they made the Elite Eight! So...there's that!!

if X wins out in reg season, imo they should be in regardless. Their Qtr game is going to be a q1, whether its Marquette or UCONN. Looking at remaining schedules, gun to my head it will be Marquette.

[GoMuskies]

If X wins out and avoids a loss in the Big East quarters, I think they're in. X is essentially in the same spot they were in the last time they made the Elite Eight! So...there's that!!

Yeah, it's "avoiding a loss in the Big East quarters" I'm pretty concerned about with this team. That's probably the two time defending national champs.

[xubrew]

None of that is really inconsistent with what ESPN is doing. ESPN is just trying to pick the teams that 10 Committee members are going to include on the first ballot (the locks) and the teams that stay on the board and who will eventually make it in off that board (if Selection Sunday was today). All that process is irrelevant to what ESPN (and other bracketologists) do/show. At the end of the day, after all that process the Committee has to pick their teams. ESPN (and others) are just trying to predict who they'll pick (or who they'd pick as of a certain day).

I agree. I think the biggest difference is that ESPN and others do a bracket every week from basically October on, and the committee does not. What they are doing is not a reflection of what the committee is doing because...well...the committee hasn't built a seedlist or bracket yet. They have one trial run as an exercise and that's it. So, TECHNICALLY no one is in, out, or on the bubble yet.

Having said that...

What if the committee DID release it's rankings every week the way the college football committee does?? They would NEVER do this because it would be too much of a time commitment for them, but just imagine what great TV that would be every week!!

[Xville]

I mean, how else do you evaluate teams? You didn't blow out shitty teams, and you didn't beat any of the good teams you played (save for Marquette). What, exactly, is to recommend about a team you can say both of those things about?

All the other things we talk about. I don't think margin of victory over a shitty team should be a big determining factor as to your computer numbers. If you want SOR/SOS to be a major factor, ok i get that.

[Xville]

Yeah, it's "avoiding a loss in the Big East quarters" I'm pretty concerned about with this team. That's probably the two time defending national champs.

based on remaining schedules, I think it will be marquette. UCONN as mediocre as they have been lately, could win out. Marquette has at least two games where they will be dogs.

[GoMuskies]

It has to be a factor. Now, there should be some diminishing returns. A 30 point win and a 50 point win are the same thing. But a 5 or 10 point win shouldn't be the same as a 20, 25 or 30 point win.

Now, none of that would matter if you beat some of the good teams on your schedule. But if you're trying to make distinctions between a bunch of highly flawed teams, margin of victory absolutely should come into play at some level.

[xubrew]

I mean, how else do you evaluate teams? You didn't blow out shitty teams, and you didn't beat any of the good teams you played (save for Marquette). What, exactly, is to recommend about a team you can say both of those things about?

I think this is pretty close to how the committee member that's charged with monitoring the Big East will assess Xavier. Word for word, this is probably what they're saying about X.

They've also probably observed that for 33 minutes, Xavier is a hell of a good team!!!

[Xavier]

I can’t tell if I like or don’t like how the committee somewhat changes. New guys come in and committee values different things. Sometimes it’s Road wins, sometimes it’s who you beat vs who you lost to, just feels like every year we hear a different version of “it was clear the committee valued xyz this year”.

[Xville]

I think this is pretty close to how the committee member that's charged with monitoring the Big East will assess Xavier. Word for word, this is probably what they're saying about X.

X may not have many Quad 1 wins, but they did beat Marquette, UCONN and Wake...teams that are in the tourney today. The same as most of the other teams that are on the bubble line. If they beat Creighton that's four.

SMU has beaten zero, Wake 1 (2 if you consider SMU), Nebraska 4 but losses to iowa, rutgers, usc, penn state, Arkansas 3 with a loss to lsu

[GoMuskies]

I just think that 1-9 is going to stick out like a sore thumb in our resume, and it becomes 1-10 if we lose in the first game of the Big East tournament. More and more, I think we're going to sweat A LOT if we don't win the next FOUR. Getting a crooked number in that Q1 win column would make me feel a lot better.

[Xville]

I just think that 1-9 is going to stick out like a sore thumb in our resume, and it becomes 1-10 if we lose in the first game of the Big East tournament. More and more, I think we're going to sweat A LOT if we don't win the next FOUR. Getting a crooked number in that Q1 win column would make me feel a lot better.

Butler is 2 spots away from a q1. Hate to say it, but some absolute upsets from Butler outside of X in their other 3 games, would be nice.

[GoMuskies]

Butler is 2 spots away from a q1. Hate to say it, but some absolute upsets from Butler outside of X in their other 3 games, would be nice.

Just checked out their schedule and....YIKES. Not feeling too good about their chances! Maybe @ Villanova? I guess they could get some of that Hinkle Magic and get hot against St. John's. St. John's does have a tendancy to throw rocks at the rim.

[xubrew]

X may not have many Quad 1 wins, but they did beat Marquette, UCONN and Wake...teams that are in the tourney today. The same as most of the other teams that are on the bubble line. If they beat Creighton that's four.

SMU has beaten zero, Wake 1 (2 if you consider SMU), Nebraska 4 but losses to iowa, rutgers, usc, penn state, Arkansas 3 with a loss to lsu

The win at Marquette is really good. Wins against UConn and Wake are decent, but I can promise you that this will be pointed out. Wake is 6-5 in true road games and their only win against anyone that's even on the board is SMU, and SMU will almost assuredly not the field. UConn is a little better at 6-4 with wins at Creighton and Marquette, but they also have some losses in true road games that make you scratch your head. The win at Providence, who is 10-4 at home which includes a win over BYU, will probably be looked at as a little better than what people are expecting.

When you beat a team at home that's good over all, but only sort of meh on the road, the committee notices that. That is something that I am absolutely certain of. It's a different conference, but teams who have beaten Kansas at home and think they're going to get a ton of credit for doing so will probably get far less credit than they are expecting.

[waggy]

What are the 3-way tiebreakers in the BE? It's not out of the realm of possibility that UConn, X and Marquette all finish 13-7.

[GoMuskies]

What are the 3-way tiebreakers in the BE? It's not out of the realm of possibility that UConn, X and Marquette all finish 13-7.

Isn't there a site where you can plug in outcomes on games for the rest of the year and it will spit out the standings/conference tournament bracket? Feels like something we've seen/used in prior years.

[Xville]

The win at Marquette is really good. Wins against UConn and Wake are decent, but I can promise you that this will be pointed out. Wake is 6-5 in true road games and their only win against anyone that's even on the board is SMU, and SMU will almost assuredly not the field. UConn is a little better at 6-4 with wins at Creighton and Marquette, but they also have some losses in true road games that make you scratch your head. The win at Providence, who is 10-4 at home which includes a win over BYU, will probably be looked at as a little better than what people are expecting.

When you beat a team at home that's good over all, but only sort of meh on the road, the committee notices that. That is something that I am absolutely certain of. It's a different conference, but teams who have beaten Kansas at home and think they're going to get a ton of credit for doing so will probably get far less credit than they are expecting.

interesting tidbit in regards to what you just said:

Away records:

Oklahoma 1-6
Georgia 1-7
Vandy 2-6
X 4-7

[Xavier]

I agree. If I were another bubble team I’d point to 1-9 and think how the hell are they in contention. There’s a reason all these teams are on the bubble, each have major issues. I’d point to 13-7 in BE with 2 of the losses coming without your best player. But none of these teams have real good cases or else they’d be in.

Put another way- win out and still miss I wouldn’t say X got screwed.

[GoMuskies]

interesting tidbit in regards to what you just said:

Away records:

Oklahoma 1-6
Georgia 1-7
Vandy 2-6
X 4-7

Do they generally look at true road or road/neutral? If road/neutral:

Oklahoma 6-6
Georgia 3-8
Vandy 5-7
Xavier 5-8

Obviously doesn't help us as much in that case.

[Xavier]

Isn't there a site where you can plug in outcomes on games for the rest of the year and it will spit out the standings/conference tournament bracket? Feels like something we've seen/used in prior years.

https://bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbb

Think this is the site you’re talking about

[xubrew]

interesting tidbit in regards to what you just said:

Away records:

Oklahoma 1-6
Georgia 1-7
Vandy 2-6
X 4-7

Oh the committee knows!! I can pretty much promise that!

[xubrew]

Do they generally look at true road or road/neutral? If road/neutral:

Oklahoma 6-6
Georgia 3-8
Vandy 5-7
Xavier 5-8

Obviously doesn't help us as much in that case.

Both. If you beat a team on your home court and are trying to weigh the value of that win, they're going to look more at true road record.

[GoMuskies]

https://bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbb

Think this is the site you’re talking about

Based on this:

3. UConn (13 - 7)
Above Xavier and Marquette based on round-robin record (3-1).
4. Xavier (13 - 7)
Above Marquette and below UConn based on round-robin record (2-2).
5. Marquette (13 - 7)
Below UConn and Xavier based on round-robin record (1-3).

This assumes UConn beats Marquette. If Marquette beats UConn but we somehow still end up here:

1. St John's (18 - 2)
2. Creighton (15 - 5)
3. UConn (13 - 7)
Above Marquette and Xavier based on winning percentage against #7 teams [G'town and Providence] (4-0).
4. Marquette (13 - 7)
With Xavier, below UConn based on winning percentage against #7 teams [G'town and Providence] (3-1).
Above Xavier based on current NET ranking (27).
5. Xavier (13 - 7)
With Marquette, below UConn based on winning percentage against #7 teams [G'town and Providence] (3-1).
Below Marquette based on current NET ranking (53).

[GoMuskies]

The absolute worst news I just learned from utilizing that site is that the 4/5 game that Xaver seems VERY likely to be a part of is on Peacock. Fuck.

[paulxu]

I am SO tired of our season depending on how someone not named Xavier plays.

[94GRAD]

I am SO tired of our season depending on how someone not named Xavier plays.

You're in luck, Paul. If we win out in the regular season, we will make the tournament.

[profson]

Bracketmatrix is not a good site for projecting bubble teams, for at least two reasons:

- many of its participants only update periodically, so it is usually 2-3 days behind in reflecting current developments
- the participants are only asked to predict the field, not teams that are just behind that. The result is the first 2 or three "bubble teams" get a bunch of votes, but it drops off precipitously after that. At one point Xavier was the 4th team out with exactly one vote. It means nothing.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

You're in luck, Paul. If we win out in the regular season, we will make the tournament.

This, three games left and go 3-0 we take judgement out of the equation. I think 3-0 makes us a lock regardless how we play in the tourney. Go 2-1 and I think win 1 or 2 in the tourney is a must.

[xubrew]

Bracketmatrix is not a good site for projecting bubble teams, for at least two reasons:

- many of its participants only update periodically, so it is usually 2-3 days behind in reflecting current developments
- the participants are only asked to predict the field, not teams that are just behind that. The result is the first 2 or three "bubble teams" get a bunch of votes, but it drops off precipitously after that. At one point Xavier was the 4th team out with exactly one vote. It means nothing.

I don't know THAT much about it, but isn't it a competition of sorts?? Like, they're not making any predictions of their own. They're just indexing everyone who does make predictions and scores how accurate they all were at the end of each year. See who has the best scores over the past few years and then see what they say.

[HomerCecil]

I like to think that winning out will be enough to get us in, but honestly, both UConn and Marquette have been sliding backwards in the numbers game over the past few weeks, and Creighton's Net ranking right now is 35, and I'm not sure beating them at home (which is not a given) is going to move us up more than 2-3 spots, and it's also not going to be a Quad 1 game. I'm not sure I'll feel comfortable unless we get a win over St. John's in the Garden in the semis. Not saying winning out and then losing to SJ in the semis would mean we'd be out for sure, but I'll be awfully nervous.

[Xville]

When x wins on Saturday, I think we will have a much better idea of what x needs
To do to be in the tourney. Either just win the next two, or more than that.

[GoMuskies]

Would be nice to see UC lose to Baylor. For many reasons, but also for bubble reasons. Gonzaga losing to Santa Clara could help. Prefer Georgia loses to Florida, because they probably lock up a spot with a win. Not sure who we want to win TCU/WV. Maybe TCU? Presumably we'd prefer Marquette beat Providence to avoid taking any more shine off our signature win. If Illinois loses to Iowa, maybe they start to get real bubbly. Kind of prefer New Mexico goes ahead and kills off SDSU even if it locks up a spot for the Little Pitinos.

Anything else doing tonight?

[Xville]

Would be nice to see UC lose to Baylor. For many reasons, but also for bubble reasons. Gonzaga losing to Santa Clara could help. Prefer Georgia loses to Florida, because they probably lock up a spot with a win. Not sure who we want to win TCU/WV. Maybe TCU? Presumably we'd prefer Marquette beat Providence to avoid taking any more shine off our signature win. If Illinois loses to Iowa, maybe they start to get real bubbly. Kind of prefer New Mexico goes ahead and kills off SDSU even if it locks up a spot for the Little Pitinos.

Anything else doing tonight?

We definitely want Tcu to win, wvu is ahead of x right now. Georgia to lose every game, f uc, and definitely want New Mexico to win as sdsu is currently ahead of x right now as well.

[HenryMuto]

Looks like you guys will be forced into rooting for Kentucky tomorrow vs Oklahoma

[X-band '01]

I wouldn't mind TCU picking up another loss or two. If they finish the regular season 19-12 and get a couple wins in the Big 12 Tournament. X would not get the nod over TCU with just a win against Creighton.

[HenryMuto]

Don't look now but the guy who I have the most faith in from the bracket matrix people has Xavier as the last team in today

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/seed-list/

[X-band '01]

Our Louisville fans will be giving you wedgies for suggesting that.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

UC up late in the 1st half at home vs. Baylor.

[HenryMuto]

Georgia was up 39-13 vs Florida at one point now lead 51-35 at the half.

[Xville]

Realistic that if Baylor loses tonight, they end up 17-14. That’s gotta be bubblicious I’d think

[Xville]

Seems that there are going to be quite a few teams with some pretty shitty records in the tournament this year, more than usual. And they are talking about expanding it… what a joke

[HenryMuto]

Well Georgia beating Florida does not help Xavier's cause

[X-band '01]

Did Georgia not have enough money on hand for a court storming? Their PA told them to stay off the floor and they actually obeyed.

[MHettel]

I did a very light review of the SECs performance today. Undoubtably, they are loaded at the top with Auburn, Bama, Florida and Tennessee. 4 legit top 10 teams.

But what interested me was their non-conference winning percentage. They won 88% of their non conference games. 88%

Do you understand what that does to their collective SOS once they start playing each other? There is no wonder that there is talk of them getting up to 13 of 16 teams in the dance.

I looked at the non-conference SOS and records of the bottom 5 SEC teams. Without the specifics at hand, let’s just say it was typical that this group had an SOS of about 300 and a record of roughly 11-2 or 12-1. These are the BOTTOM FEEDERS of the SEC and they are bringing in an 80%+ winning percentage into the conference soup. Brilliant.

By the way this group of bottom feeders were all like (on average) 4-9 in conference play. But that record gets overlooked because their opponents are so “hard”. But they play each other. And they beat a bunch of cupcakes. And suddenly, beating a team that beat a bunch of cupcakes is considered a good win.

I did t look at all of the SEC. I’m sure the top 4-5 teams had challenging non-conference schedules. And they all met the challenge.

But getting a bunch of worthless wins and then finishing 5-11 in conference is NOT tournament worthy under any measure. Let’s hope the committee digs into this. This is akin to what the BE did in the early 2000s to “game” the RPI.

And again, I’ll point to the fact the SEC plays 18 conference games and as a result gets to schedule more “wins” for their SOS soup. They nailed it this year.

Conversely, the BE won about 66% of our non-conference game, which I think was 4th. We had several teams not pulling their weight in the non-conference, XU among them. Once conference play starts, the die is already cast. Non-conference record means EVERYTHING. And it doesn’t really matter who you played.

[xukeith]

Maybe X is cutting corners and tightening spending on entertainment, fun atmosphere, etc. All to keep the X program competitive with other BE schools.

I doubt a dollar here or there impacts Miller recruiting but every dollar helps.

[Xville]

Correct in saying the non-con is where all of the cake is baked so to speak. If you think about it, kind of crazy that the first two months of the season (when teams are still trying to figure things out) determines the conference strength for the remaining 3 months.

Big East did not do its job in the non-con this season nor last. That needs to change, along with some leadership at the top of the conference, but that's my soapbox and a different story.

[Xville]

Maybe X is cutting corners and tightening spending on entertainment, fun atmosphere, etc. All to keep the X program competitive with other BE schools.

I doubt a dollar here or there impacts Miller recruiting but every dollar helps.

You can enhance the fan experience without spending hardly any more money. That's what corporate sponsors are for. And, if you can't get a corporate sponsor, then you need a new marketing department. And if you can't get a new marketing department, then t-shirts cost about 3-4 dollars at a group rate...so you're talking 30-40k for the biggest game of the regular season in a very long time. Do that a couple of times a year for the big games...dollar beers, enhanced experiences etc. If X can't scrounge up that kind of money for the fans, then maybe X should reevaluate where they are spending money. Maybe stop spending money on unnecessary things like 1980s style mall food courts.

[Xavier]

I think if you’re making a big deal about a white out, just put shirts on the chairs. You see it everywhere in CBB. It’s lazy and cheap. Having said that I couldn’t care less if you have a white out or not, but if you do- just do it right. The marketing department as a whole is underwhelming. Even in A10 they’d do a game a year with towels on the chair. When they played Florida, they had gator in concession stands. Game day experience seems lacking,

[Xavier]

For as good as the last couple weeks has been for X (in regards to bubble teams around them) last night was a bad one. But I won’t be surprised to see Baylor play themselves out at this point, so maybe it isn’t as bad as it looks.

SEC is going to be real interesting case. Georgia is 17-11 (5-10) with wins over St John’s, Kentucky, Florida. Oklahoma is 17-10 (4-10) with wins over Michigan and Miss St. Frankly they aren’t as interesting, Georgia has some damn good wins though.

[GoMuskies]

Oklahoma also has wins over Louisville and Arizona on neutral floors. They're pretty interesting.

[xubrew]

I am SO tired of our season depending on how someone not named Xavier plays.


You're in luck, Paul. If we win out in the regular season, we will make the tournament.

There are 346 teams that are still playing and who have not yet been mathematically eliminated from their conference tournament. They all still have a shot, and they are all in a position of being able to play their own way in regardless of what happens. Xavier really doesn't need to depend on anyone other than themselves.

[Xavier]

Oklahoma also has wins over Louisville and Arizona on neutral floors. They're pretty interesting.

Yep, missed that combing through the schedule.

[GoMuskies]

But getting a bunch of worthless wins and then finishing 5-11 in conference is NOT tournament worthy under any measure. .

Who is this hypothetical team you're talking about? The only two teams that sort of fit that bill are Oklahoma and Georgia. Georgia, the 13th best team in the SEC, beat the best team in the Big East. Oklahoma, the 14th best team in the SEC, beat the second best team in the ACC, the second best team in the Big Ten, and the second best team in the Big XII without losing a single non-conference game. Perhaps the SEC gamed the system some, but show me the other conference that has multiple teams in the bottom quarter of the league with wins over top teams from other power conferences.

[Xville]

Feel gross saying this but we are all butler fans tonight. If they win that game at hinkle probably becomes a q1.

[GoMuskies]

Looking at tonight:

UConn/Georgetown - I THINK we want UConn to win to keep one of our good wins looking nice. But also UConn might be a fellow bubble team, so a loss here could actually help. So maybe a bit indifferent on this one.
Vandy/A&M - Go Aggies
Dayton/Rhody - Go Rhode Island! No bubble implications, just fuck Dayton
Drake/Evansville - Hate to cheer against the mid-major potential at-larges, but an Evansville win could help us. Hopefully Drake just wins the MVC Tournament and Drake is irrelevant to us then.
Penn State/Indiana - Go Nittany Lions!
Kentucky/Oklahoma - Go Sooners! (Just on principle; others might want Oklahoma knocked down a peg)
UVA/Wake - Go Hoos! At least if Wake wins there is SOME benefit to us, but I'd rather they lose ground in the at-large push.
DePaul/Creighton - Need Creighton to avoid a slip-up here so as not to tarnish our win over them this weekend.
Texas/Arkansas - Indifferent? I guess I'm team Horns in that I don't like Calipari and would prefer him deeper on the bubble.
Utah State/Boise - Utah State knocking off Boise would be nice. Boise REALLY helps themselves with a win here, and we don't want that.
SMU/Cal - Go Bears! SMU isn't very good, and I can't believe they are competing for an at-large. Hopefully that ends tonight.

[paulxu]

Should it be a rule that you have to at least have a .500 conference record?

[xubrew]

Who is this hypothetical team you're talking about? The only two teams that sort of fit that bill are Oklahoma and Georgia. Georgia, the 13th best team in the SEC, beat the best team in the Big East. Oklahoma, the 14th best team in the SEC, beat the second best team in the ACC, the second best team in the Big Ten, and the second best team in the Big XII without losing a single non-conference game. Perhaps the SEC gamed the system some, but show me the other conference that has multiple teams in the bottom quarter of the league with wins over top teams from other power conferences.

To further your point, the SEC was 185-23 in OOC games, and if I counted right 31-17 against the top 50 of the NET out of conference. That's a 64.5% winning percentage in OOC games against the NET top 50, an average of 3 top 50 opponents per team, and basically 2 wins per team. I think literally every team had at least one.

No other conference did that. No other conference came anywhere close to doing that. That is STUPID good!!!

[xubrew]

Should it be a rule that you have to at least have a .500 conference record?

I wouldn't vote against it, but I kind of go both ways with it. The SEC basically played 50 games out of conference against teams that will be either safely in the field or at least on the bubble, and won over 30 of them. I mean if teams go out there and play an absolute killer OOC schedule and manages to do well against it, that should count for something.

[Xville]

To further your point, the SEC was 185-23 in OOC games, and if I counted right 31-17 against the top 50 of the NET out of conference. That's a 64.5% winning percentage in OOC games against the NET top 50, an average of 3 top 50 opponents per team, and basically 2 wins per team. I think literally every team had at least one.

No other conference did that. No other conference came anywhere close to doing that. That is STUPID good!!!

The SEC did a really good job of taking advantage of them being good, but also in competing against a historically bad ACC. In the challenge, the SEC went I believe 14-2 and they had a number of other conference wins against that particular conference. They were barely above .500 against the big ten, and just 5-4 against Big East. To sum it up, a majority of their OOC wins came against a very bad ACC...some luck involved there, but they did what they needed to do. They won the games in front of them.

[GoMuskies]

30-4 against the ACC is insane. But they got Louisville 4x and Duke once. 1-1 against Clemson, but notably that one win came from the worst team in the SEC: South Carolina. 14-2 against the Big XII is quite solid as well, including knocking off Houston twice.

The avoidance of losses against mid-majors was wild. 126-4. 3 of the losses were to Drake and Memphis meaning they went 126-1 against the cream puffs. One Vandy loss to North Florida.

[Xavier]

For awhile I thought it was just the best conference that we’ve seen. It didn’t (still doesn’t) feel like the old big east conference that was overrated. There’s a lot of great offense which tricks you a little. I won’t be surprised if none make the F4. Still a great conference and am interested to see how committee treats a 4-10 Oklahoma team with great wins.

[Xville]

For awhile I thought it was just the best conference that we’ve seen. It didn’t (still doesn’t) feel like the old big east conference that was overrated. There’s a lot of great offense which tricks you a little. I won’t be surprised if none make the F4. Still a great conference and am interested to see how committee treats a 4-10 Oklahoma team with great wins.

I watch the SEC a ton due to being a Mizzou fan as well. IMO, The top is extremely good...6 or so teams. The rest of the conference is just like every other conference in my view. Some average and some shit. The thing that kind of bugs me about this year, is that because the top is so good, the middle and bottom are getting the benefit of the doubt. I still think they are shit, but outside of LSU/South Carolina, no one is looking at them this way. Yes, the middle and bottom had some good wins in the non-con so is what it is, but teams are so different in November/December than they are now. For example, are we really to believe St. John's would lose to Georgia now? Not a chance in hell imo.

Anyways, just watching a lot of these "other" SEC teams, imo they all look like the middle to the bottom of every other power conference save for maybe the ACC who is just gawd awful this year.

[xubrew]

For awhile I thought it was just the best conference that we’ve seen. It didn’t (still doesn’t) feel like the old big east conference that was overrated. There’s a lot of great offense which tricks you a little. I won’t be surprised if none make the F4. Still a great conference and am interested to see how committee treats a 4-10 Oklahoma team with great wins.

I actually wouldn't be either, but at the same time I'm not about to make the prediction that none of them will make it. But, when you look at the Final Four caliber teams...

Alabama is a little too reliant on the 3, and if they have an off day they can be beaten

Tennessee, as good as they are, does sometimes go through scoring droughts.

Florida's ceiling is as high as anyone's, but they don't always play up to it.

Auburn....Okay, Auburn is fucking amazing. They look good even on an off night. When a team can have an off game and still beat a top 25 team, that's incredible. Auburn's defense is great, they can hit from the outside, they are a fantastic rebounding team, and they can score in the paint. They're built to where even if they're having an off night in one of those areas, they're good enough at everything else to compensate for it.

Houston was my pick to win it all before the season started, and while I'll still stick with that, they also go through offensive dry spells. They are an AMAZING defensive team and defensive rebounding team, and teams like that are better built to win games away from home because they can suck the energy out of the home crowd. Strangely enough, Houston is actually better in true road games than they are at home. But, they can be beaten if they face another good defensive team and have trouble scoring.

I hate Rick Pitino, but if there is a dark horse pick to make the Final Four, and perhaps knock off one of the top level SEC teams along the way, I think it's Saint John's. They wear teams out defensively. Things that teams typically take for granted like making the entry pass, or switching on the screen, or just basic ball movement, is more difficult against Saint John's than most of other teams. It just grinds and grinds and grinds. And by the end of the game, teams are tired. And, Saint John's is a pretty good defensive team and has some offensive weapons as well. If they played Alabama, or Tennessee, or Florida....in terms of strictly a match-up sense....I think the Johnnies beat them!

[Xavier]

Can you explain what happened to mizzou? Winless in SEC last year to top 20 team. I thought Gates was known to be a defense first coach (I think he was on a list if Miller didn’t come, and I wasn’t interested) but the offense is great.

Unfortunately they are also one of the sec teams I think will lose early in March.

[GoMuskies]

St. John's could certainly get to the Final Four, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them lose in the second round either. They're just such awful rock throwers on offense.

[Xville]

Can you explain what happened to mizzou? Winless in SEC last year to top 20 team. I thought Gates was known to be a defense first coach (I think he was on a list if Miller didn’t come, and I wasn’t interested) but the offense is great.

Unfortunately they are also one of the sec teams I think will lose early in March.

Grill injured last year, Tonje who was on the team last year and is now tearing it up at wisconsin was also injured. With that said, the pieces just didn't fit well together with who was left, and talent wasn't there. (Gates had a few Cleveland State guys left over along with guys that came from mid majors who were thrust into positions of trying to be THE guys in the SEC, not the role players they were expected to be).

Anyways, there is an abundance of talent on the team this year, and they have just about everything. The only possible blind spot is no traditional offensive big. They have Mitchell who is a damn good player, but he's not a back to the basket or mid range type guy, hes more of an athletic, get to the hoop kind of player. That works against smaller frontcourts, not against traditional big athletic teams.

As far as March, it all depends on matchups. If they face a big athletic frontcourt, that would be an issue for them. I could see them somewhere between an Elite Eight Experience and Round of 32. It all just depends, like most teams.

[Xville]

This is how I know the net is crap. Zags are #8 with 2 quad 1 wins and 11 q4 wins.

[MHettel]

30-4 against the ACC is insane. But they got Louisville 4x and Duke once. 1-1 against Clemson, but notably that one win came from the worst team in the SEC: South Carolina. 14-2 against the Big XII is quite solid as well, including knocking off Houston twice.

The avoidance of losses against mid-majors was wild. 126-4. 3 of the losses were to Drake and Memphis meaning they went 126-1 against the cream puffs. One Vandy loss to North Florida.

Yeah, 126 out of 185 wins were against the cream puffs. That’s my point. Did they get the job done against the cream puffs? For sure. But had they ONLY won those games, they would still have been 126-80, which is 61% which would have put them around 5-6 in non-con win %.

The philosophy was to schedule 10 wins and then 3 tough games with only upside. And it worked. But I I don’t look at Georgia beating Vandy or Texas as some great accomplishment. But mathematically it’s a pretty damn good win.

The SEC is good. Not taking that away. The top is great. But it’s the bottom that propelled them to this level this year. And it was enabled by just scheduling non-con wins.

[GoMuskies]

And it was enabled by just scheduling non-con wins.

I mean, not exactly. Your 14th place team going undefeated in the non-con while beating Michigan, Arizona and Louisville isn't "just scheduling non-con wins". We wouldn't be talking about the 14th place team if they just beat the cream puffs.

[GoMuskies]

But had they ONLY won those games, they would still have been 126-80, which is 61% which would have put them around 5-6 in non-con win %.

The Big East, by the way, scheduled 80 of its 121 non-conference games against teams outside the power conferences. That's 66.1%. 66-14, including 4-7 against the fucking A-10.

[Xville]

I mean, not exactly. Your 14th place team going undefeated in the non-con while beating Michigan, Arizona and Louisville isn't "just scheduling non-con wins". We wouldn't be talking about the 14th place team if they just beat the cream puffs.

Sure but how about Texas, Vandy and Arkansas? One good non-con win among them.

[GoMuskies]

They're getting their quality wins in league play. I suspect that 'brew is right about Vandy getting the Committee side-eye for never winning away from home.

[xubrew]

They're getting their quality wins in league play. I suspect that 'brew is right about Vandy getting the Committee side-eye for never winning away from home.

Vanderbilt has the type of profile that almost always gets past over. They're a home court hero, but some of those wins aren't as good as they appear. Kentucky and Texas in particular are bad road teams. Their OOC SOS is pathetic. They fit the profile of the team that a bracketologists always projects in, but that the real committee actually does not take. At least historically. Now, having said that...

It's my understanding (take that for what it's worth) that the committee is looking at the SOR (strength of record) and WAB metrics rather heavily this year. Vandy is in the 30s in both. So, if they do get selected, I would have to conclude that that's why. But, I don't think they should be if they finish the season without winning at least one more true road game. No way. None.

But, they don't really ask me what I think.

[xubrew]

This is how I know the net is crap. Zags are #8 with 2 quad 1 wins and 11 q4 wins.

I don't recall any other example of a team who's predictive metrics were so good and who's merit metrics were so poor. It's actually quite astonishing. I mean, I get how that's happening. Gonzaga's losses have mostly been in close games to really good teams, so their adjust efficiency metrics are going to look really good even though they're not winning. And when they do win, they blow teams out, which boosts the metrics even more.

But if you look at their teamsheet, and only who they've beaten, you can actually make a case that they shouldn't be in the field at all.

[X-band '01]

This is how I know the net is crap. Zags are #8 with 2 quad 1 wins and 11 q4 wins.

Gonzaga loses close games and wins in blowouts - the NET does take scoring margin into account. They kicked the shit out of Baylor back in November.

Still, I thought scoring margin was capped at a certain point.

[GoMuskies]

Well, at least for a half Vandy is threatening to get their big road win.

[GoMuskies]

Vandy is in.

[Xavier]

If Virginia hangs on to beat Wake- Wake is officially out. Penn State similarly can put Indiana in trouble if they hang on. Two games to keep eye on

[X-band '01]

Indiana picked a helluva time for one of their starters to miss a game due to illness.

It may be the most Indiana thing ever to blow out Purdue and promptly lose to a Penn State team that may not even make the B1G Tournament in a couple weeks.

[HenryMuto]

You guys are fools if you are rooting for Oklahoma to win they win tonight they are likely getting in

[GoMuskies]

Only a fool ever roots for Kentucky

[GoMuskies]

At least Wake lost to a terrible UVA team.

[Xavier]

Yeah, Wake is out now. Shame Texas couldn’t make buzzer beater, if they win in OT- Arkansas is out, too.

[GoMuskies]

Thriller in Norman. Oklahoma probably needs to win 2. Tough after tonight.

Des and the boys not helping out against Ohio State so far, either.

[HenryMuto]

Down goes Oklahoma in a game for the ages !!!!!!!!!

That was a double win for me Kentucky wins and Xavier wins by Oklahoma losing

[HenryMuto]

Wake I thought was done before they have to be done now for sure without beating Duke in ACC tournament

[GoMuskies]

USC has a good chance to knock Ohio State to the brink, but Des got his pocket picked with 50 seconds down 3 and promptly fouled out at the other end. Ohio State then closed it out.

And Boise murdered Utah State. Not ideal.

[Xville]

Thriller in Norman. Oklahoma probably needs to win 2. Tough after tonight.

Des and the boys not helping out against Ohio State so far, either.

Oklahoma, Texas, and Georgia are all going to be interesting case studies for the committee. All of them will be significantly under .500 in conference, and Oklahoma going at least 1-2 if not 0-3 is very realistic.

[Xavier]

That Des play is just classic Des. Great athlete, has great skills, but maddening plays with low IQ.

At the end of the day, I think 3-0 gets us in. The bubble teams around us do just enough that losing any of the 3 requires minimum BE finals appearance and probably winning it. Though getting to finals likely means adding 2 Q1 wins. So, maybe if everything falls right it could be enough.

[GoMuskies]

At the end of the day, I think 3-0 gets us in.

Hope we go 3-0, and I hope you're right. Personally, I'm not sure how anyone can be remotely confident about that without us grabbing another quad 1 win in the QF of the Big East Tournament.

[Xville]

Hope we go 3-0, and I hope you're right. Personally, I'm not sure how anyone can be remotely confident about that without us grabbing another quad 1 win in the QF of the Big East Tournament.

Yeah I had been confident that 3-0 would get us in but now I’m not so sure. X just doesn’t seem to be getting the benefit of the doubt others are which I kind of get due to our q1 record. When we beat Creighton, and see where we stand should tell us a lot

[xubrew]

Hope we go 3-0, and I hope you're right. Personally, I'm not sure how anyone can be remotely confident about that without us grabbing another quad 1 win in the QF of the Big East Tournament.

I'm reasonably confident that 4-1 is enough. 3-0 I'm not so sure. Too many other moving parts.

[Xavier]

Ah. Probably right. 3-0 is probably like 65%. Wouldn’t go to selection Sunday fully expecting to get in. 4-1 I’d expect a bid.

[Xavier]

If X wins out- and Marquette loses home against UConn and away against St. John’s is does two things. 1-X becomes a 4 seed, and UConn might jump back into a Q1 win, 2- Marquette becomes the 5th seed. I actually don’t think UConn has looked too impressive but we still match up better with Marquette.

[xubrew]

There are a lot of 'what-if's' for Xavier right now. The one that sticks in my craw the most was the loss at Saint John's. There are others. There are so many others that if X gets left out they have no one to blame but themselves. But...THE FUCKING SAINT JOHN'S GAME!!!!!

[Xville]

Lunardi is not the end all be all but this makes me feel more confident that if X goes 3-0 we are in.

FWIW, Torvik says that X would avoid Dayton if they go 3-0...of course one bid stealer changes that because they are the 4th last bye team, but still...decent position unless things get stupid like they did last year.

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

[X-band '01]

You can also bet on North Carolina making the field if the Tar Holes are close to the cut line.

I of course say this because the chairman of the Selection Committee is UNC AD Bubba Cunningham. He was responsible for Virginia making the First Four last year when a lot of people were projecting them out of the field.

Another stat that Lunardi highlighted was that Pitino was 19-2 in the NCAA First Round at power programs like Providence, Kentucky and Louisville. One of those 2 losses came during The Run in 2004.

[HenryMuto]

South Carolina 72-53 over Arkansas. Arkansas had 14 pts at half.

[HenryMuto]

Minnesota hits a 3 ball with 4 secs left to win at Nebraska 67-65 this helps the cause

[Xville]

Hopefully ole miss can finish off the trifecta. Time for x to take advantage

[Xville]

Trifecta completed. Nebraska, Oklahoma
And Arkansas all go down.
Time to make our freaking mark

[HenryMuto]

Cincinnati lost

[GoMuskies]

SMU is going to lose to Stanford.

In a CLASSIC ACC matchup.

[HenryMuto]

SMU loses at Stanford

[Xavier]

Oklahoma, Arkansas, and whoever loses Texas/Georiga match will all play themselves out today. I didn’t really expect UC to make a run but they are out, too. Haven’t dug into the rest of the day those just stood out. Pretty solid

[Tim]

Oklahoma, Arkansas, and whoever loses Texas/Georiga match will all play themselves out today. I didn’t really expect UC to make a run but they are out, too. Haven’t dug into the rest of the day those just stood out. Pretty solid

None of these other teams' losses mean a thing if we don't win the next 2.

[Xavier]

Thanks, Tim.

[GoMuskies]

ESPN's Bubble Watch only jumped us from 26% to 35% with the win.

I still think we need to win 3 more.

[HenryMuto]

ESPN's Bubble Watch only jumped us from 26% to 35% with the win.

I still think we need to win 3 more.

2 more gets you in because your going to be the 5 seed and play UCONN or Marquette and losing that won't hurt you in the Big East tournament.

This is what I think even though only 1 quad 1 win that is the only thing that is dicey

[Xville]

Torvik has x in as of today.. I’d like two wins and a qtr win to be 100% safe due to bid thieves but man going 21-10 and 13-7 and not getting in would be kind of bs in my view

[HenryMuto]

People keep wanting to say SMU is in they have 0 quad 1 wins so I don't see how they are in over Xavier who is in a far better league.

For some reason Xavier NET and kenpom rankings are way too low for how good this team really is.

How do they only have a NET of 52 coming into today. Xavier offense ranking is 61 on kenpom that is way too low for the talent this team has.

That St John's game was so huge in all worlds

[Xville]

with the margin of this win, x made a significant jump in Kenpom to 44 and probably will in net as well. That should help with bracketology I’d hope.

[HenryMuto]

Texas losing very badly at home to mid Georgia team. Most had Texas still in and Georgia out but that has to flip I would think.

Still plenty of season left to play in the SEC though

[profson]

2 more gets you in because your going to be the 5 seed and play UCONN or Marquette and losing that won't hurt you in the Big East tournament.

This is what I think even though only 1 quad 1 win that is the only thing that is dicey

That is far from certain. Two victories puts us third from last in which is very vulnerable to bid thieves. Need a couple just ahead of us to take some losses.

[Xville]

Kenpom 43 now and net is 49. That win helped the cpu numbers quite a bit.

However, in another wtf are we doing…. Uc jumped 7 places and are now 40 in the net for losing to Houston. Really need to either tweak or get rid of that stupid sorting system

[xukeith]

X computer ratings jumped because of how they won by 20 vs CU.

Torvik rating has X 36
Massey rating has X 38
KP - 43

Imagine if X won 2-4 games by 20 points or more. They would probably have a ranking in the late 20s-mid 30's at least.

Since January and seperately from February, Torvik ratings says X is playing as a team in mid 20s.

Since Feb. 11, X is rated as the 11th best team in country.

[Xavier]

Playing its best basketball as the season goes on. Teamrankings moved X to a 69% chance to make it. Think numbers are all over with regards to last 8-10 teams. Just crazy to be in this position after the St Johns drubbing at home.

[94GRAD]

Playing its best basketball as the season goes on. Teamrankings moved X to a 69% chance to make it. Think numbers are all over with regards to last 8-10 teams. Just crazy to be in this position after the St Johns drubbing at home.

#Nice

[Xville]

Butler sucks but they are going to be just as ready for x as x was for Creighton. Senior night, their Super Bowl. Our guys need to come out and hit them in the mouth early

[Three Point Pete]

X computer ratings jumped because of how they won by 20 vs CU.

Torvik rating has X 36
Massey rating has X 38
KP - 43

Imagine if X won 2-4 games by 20 points or more. They would probably have a ranking in the late 20s-mid 30's at least.

Since January and seperately from February, Torvik ratings says X is playing as a team in mid 20s.

Since Feb. 11, X is rated as the 11th best team in country.Casey Jacobson is bullish on Xavier. At the halftime show of the Hall game, he predicted Xavier would beat Creighton and make the Dance.
During the Prime Time College Hoops after the Creighton game, he called Xavier the "dark horse" winner of the BET.
One out of three, so far!

Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk

[OTRMUSKIE]

Don’t put too much into the NET ranking. What matters the most on the NET is the quad system. This is just one metric of many they use to decide. If X wins next 2 they should be in. Indiana and OSU play each other still. Got to believe another loss by OSU and they are done.

[X-band '01]

A road win at Penn State would qualify as a Quad 1 win for B1G teams since Penn State is in the top 75 of the NET.

Here's the rub - Penn State won't even qualify for the B1G Tournament since they're guaranteed to finish in the bottom 3 of the conference. Gotta think the Selection Committee would also take that into consideration as a "quality" win.

[noteggs]

Don’t want this to be about NIL but rather a by product. With vastly newly constructed rosters for today’s teams, you would expect teams to play better in February vs November.

With that said, wish committee would give “some” consideration and go back to the old way of how are they playing lately. I’m sure there are other teams that have a guy like Maddox who finally had their light bulb go on. Yes I might feel differently if X was not in this spot lol.

Finally, a team like Oklahoma with only 4 wins in their last 16 games does not deserve an at large. I really don’t care how many quad 1 wins they may have picked up in November or what conference they play in. Again, not sure this NET stuff was in consideration before the NIL and free agent era.

[Xville]

Yep the net is dumb. It needs to be done away with or tweaked considerably. Penn state being a q1 is a freaking joke, and there are many examples of the ridiculousness of the sorting system

[X-band '01]

If I had to make the case for Oklahoma, it would be that a couple of their key wins came when they won the Battle 4 Atlantis with wins against Arizona and Louisville. They also beat Michigan in Charlotte in December, but their only wins of note in the SEC came at home against Vandy and Mississippi State along with a win at Arkansas. They've done nothing else of note.

They also have a loss at home against Texas (on the wrong side of the bubble now) and a killer loss at home against LSU that's one of only two garbage SEC teams this year.

Xville better hope that his Mizzou team puts a final dagger in the Sooners when they visit Norman later this week

[HenryMuto]

Drake avoids what would been a catastrophic loss at home to Missouri State but down 2 with 22 secs left Missouri State missed a FT and Drake got fouled with 9 secs left hit both FTs got a stop and then won in OT.

Drake will be interesting case if they make the MVC Finals next Sunday and lose they would be 29-4 with a win on a neutral court vs Vanderbilt, a win at Kansas State (where many good teams were beat this year), a win at 2nd place Bradley a win at 3rd place Northern Iowa.

The problem is all 3 of their losses were quad 3 losses home to Bradley which should not really be considered bad they are barely a quad 3 loss but 2 bad losses at Ill-Chicago and the worst one home to Murray State.

Best thing to do is root for Drake to win the MVC tournament to be safe I think with only 4 losses and that win vs Vandy they might get a bid.

[HenryMuto]

Yep the net is dumb. It needs to be done away with or tweaked considerably. Penn state being a q1 is a freaking joke, and there are many examples of the ridiculousness of the sorting system

Gonzaga would like an 8 seed right now and they have a NET of 8

[waggy]

Bracketmatrix is not a good site for projecting bubble teams, for at least two reasons:

- many of its participants only update periodically, so it is usually 2-3 days behind in reflecting current developments
- the participants are only asked to predict the field, not teams that are just behind that. The result is the first 2 or three "bubble teams" get a bunch of votes, but it drops off precipitously after that. At one point Xavier was the 4th team out with exactly one vote. It means nothing.


I don't know THAT much about it, but isn't it a competition of sorts?? Like, they're not making any predictions of their own. They're just indexing everyone who does make predictions and scores how accurate they all were at the end of each year. See who has the best scores over the past few years and then see what they say.

I got curious about this, and found that BM assembles all the bracketologist predictions of course, but also keeps an annual record of the collective performance. The collective performance outpaces the individual performances in most cases, but not always. So the collective prediction, ie Bracket Matrix, is going to generally be the best guess at the field.

I also found that last year the selection committee did a horrible job, the scores for all bracketologists was way down across the board compared to the previous 4 years. We're talking about over 170 guys that take a stab at the field, and these are people that have been doing it a minimum of 3 years, most much longer. You have to have done at least 2 years prior before you're allowed into the collective field and competition.

[webxu]

Casey Jacobson is bullish on Xavier. At the halftime show of the Hall game, he predicted Xavier would beat Creighton and make the Dance.
During the Prime Time College Hoops after the Creighton game, he called Xavier the "dark horse" winner of the BET.
One out of three, so far!

Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk

I dont think its all that crazy to think we cant win the BE tourney, we have played the top 4 teams really tough already and frankly should have gone 1-1( if not better) vs all them. There isn't a team playing better right now and the way they can shoot the ball I could see it. I will be there this year so hopefully they can make a run, that would be fun to see live.

[Xville]

If I had to make the case for Oklahoma, it would be that a couple of their key wins came when they won the Battle 4 Atlantis with wins against Arizona and Louisville. They also beat Michigan in Charlotte in December, but their only wins of note in the SEC came at home against Vandy and Mississippi State along with a win at Arkansas. They've done nothing else of note.

They also have a loss at home against Texas (on the wrong side of the bubble now) and a killer loss at home against LSU that's one of only two garbage SEC teams this year.

Xville better hope that his Mizzou team puts a final dagger in the Sooners when they visit Norman later this week

Some warning signs for Mizzou in that one. Mizzou hasn't been playing well on the road lately...their d is letting them down. Combine that with little to play for at this point vs a team that desperately needs a win to get into the tournament, I don't know if mizzou wins that one. We shall see though.

[Xville]

I dont think its all that crazy to think we cant win the BE tourney, we have played the top 4 teams really tough already and frankly should have gone 1-1( if not better) vs all them. There isn't a team playing better right now and the way they can shoot the ball I could see it. I will be there this year so hopefully they can make a run, that would be fun to see live.

I don't think it's crazy but most likely, X will have to play SJU in the semis in MSG. I think X will not only have to play SJU, but the refs as well. I can't logically see X beating St. John's in that kind of environment. A chance? sure. I hope X gets the chance :)

[xubrew]

I dont think its all that crazy to think we cant win the BE tourney, we have played the top 4 teams really tough already and frankly should have gone 1-1( if not better) vs all them. There isn't a team playing better right now and the way they can shoot the ball I could see it. I will be there this year so hopefully they can make a run, that would be fun to see live.

I know this could be my own warped view of things, but I have it in my head that almost all of Xavier's runs have come from teams that were on the bubble going into the conference tournament.

In 2004 Xavier probably doesn't even get selected if they don't beat Saint Joe's in the quarters, which not many people were expecting them to do. They won the A10 and went to the Elite Eight

The Elite Eight Run in 2017 came with Xavier getting an 11 seed and needing to win games in the Big East Tournament just to make the field

It seems like there were one or two other Sweet Sixteen runs where Xavier was on the bubble and had to play their way in late.

Conversely...

the year X got a #1 seed after being high in the rankings all year...out in the Round of 32

the year X got a #2 seed after being high in the rankings all year....out in the Round of 32

Sandwiched in between those two years was an Elite Eight appearance that came from a Xavier team that was squarely on the bubble

David West's senior year X was a bit of a national media darling...out in the Round of 32.


If this team gets in and goes on a deep run, no one will even remember that X was sweating at the end of February. That's not how anyone remembers those two Elite Eight runs. Maybe this is X's normal Elite Eight pace!!!

I'm half kidding. But, I'm only HALF kidding!

[GoMuskies]

True other than for the 2008 team that was awesome all year and went to the Elite 8.

[xubrew]

True other than for the 2008 team that was awesome all year and went to the Elite 8.

True.

The older I get the more I shrug. That's not to say I don't care and don't get frustrated, but I've just come to realize that there will be other games and Xavier's place in the current college basketball landscape is secure. But three things still kill me...

-the Charge called on Chalmers going into the under 4 TO against Duke

-The Wisconsin buzzer beater in 2016. That was a great Xavier team, and I think we would have walked into the Elite Eight had we won that. When the bracket was revealed, I also remember looking at all the teams on the 7, 6, 5, and even 4 lines and thinking I'd rather play them than play Wisconsin. It was just a bad match up for us against a team that was on fire at the end of the year.

-THIS not being called a foul in 2008. It was a different game, but it would have knocked out UCLA. To this day, I think had this been called a foul, Texas A&M would have beaten UCLA, and that 2008 Xavier team walks into the Final Four. They would have played either TAMU or Western Kentucky after getting by West Virginia. It really was THIS close! One bad call away!!

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fonmilwaukee.com%2Farticles%2Fcza ban032508&psig=AOvVaw39LdgtreMkN4ExRVnfWkyP&ust=1741099942130000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBQQjRxqFwoTCOCMq_GU7osDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAJ

But... these things happen I guess.

[Xavier]

Despite a lot that has fallen into place I still think X will have to win its next 3 to feel like we will likely be selected. Win next two and lose first round BE then it’s gonna be a toss up and need a little help. Could see it going either way at that point.

If they continue to play at a high level I think they can beat anyone in conference tournament though.

[94GRAD]

Despite a lot that has fallen into place I still think X will have to win its next 3 to feel like we will likely be selected. Win next two and lose first round BE then it’s gonna be a toss up and need a little help. Could see it going either way at that point.

If they continue to play at a high level I think they can beat anyone in conference tournament though.

If they win their next 2, they will play Uconn or Marquette in the BET. Losing to either of them will not ding our resume.

[GoMuskies]

It's not the dinging I'm worried about. I think our resume may still need the upgrade of a win over one of those two.

[xubrew]

It's not the dinging I'm worried about. I think our resume may still need the upgrade of a win over one of those two.

Two things that can happen, and that usually do...

1) A couple of teams like Memphis, Drake, or UC San Diego will fail to win their conference tournament, or a team that's outside the bubble but red hot right now like Colorado State will win the Mountain West Tournament and steal a bid. I also think that North Texas can win the American and steel a bid. But, we'll see.

2) A couple of teams from multi-bid leagues that are just outside the bubble (Arkansas, Nebraska, Xavier, etc) pick up some big wins against good teams in conference tournaments and play their way in.

Over the next 12 days, just about everyone will move. They'll either get better or worse. They won't stay the same. So, if anyone is using what the bubble currently looks like to try and figure out just how many more games they have to win, their figuring will likely be wrong.

[GoMuskies]

Which is why getting an extra resume-padding win over UConn or Marquette would be good for my mental health heading towards Selection Sunday.

[Xavier]

Yea, think a win over either is the boost to push us in for sure. Like I said losing wouldn’t mean we’re out just it’s a toss up. There’s still a shot UConn moves up to Q1. But doubt it happens.

[JTG]

This next game, Butler @ Hinkle is the game I dread most every year. It's been a nightmare for X more often than not. They always save their game of the year for us.

[chico]

This is encouraging (provided we win our last 2 games) - the last 71 Big East teams to have 21 regular season wins have made the tourney.

[xubrew]

This is encouraging (provided we win our last 2 games) - the last 71 Big East teams to have 21 regular season wins have made the tourney.

That is some deep dive trivia!! I am impressed!!!

[X-band '01]

This next game, Butler @ Hinkle is the game I dread most every year. It's been a nightmare for X more often than not. They always save their game of the year for us.

Butler is 6-5 against Xavier at Hinkle - even the Tin Man managed a couple of wins there. What Butler has not done yet is win 3 in a row against Xavier at home in the Big East era. Of course, the counterpoint would be that Thad Matta hasn't lost at home to X yet.

[Xavier]

No big east team has beaten Butler by double digits at Hinkle this year. They played UConn and Creighton to 4 points and st John’s to 6. All that is to say it should be a close game.

I kind of have to remind myself that, because at Cintas Xavier completely outmatched them. It’s actually a good matchup for Xavier. I expect to have a nice, solid win. The only slight concern is when they threw zone at X- while we got good looks eventually/ swain had so many open mid range looks that he didn’t exactly knock down against Creighton.

[chico]

That is some deep dive trivia!! I am impressed!!!

I wish I could take credit for this but I did not come up with the stat.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I know this could be my own warped view of things, but I have it in my head that almost all of Xavier's runs have come from teams that were on the bubble going into the conference tournament.

In 2004 Xavier probably doesn't even get selected if they don't beat Saint Joe's in the quarters, which not many people were expecting them to do. They won the A10 and went to the Elite Eight

The Elite Eight Run in 2017 came with Xavier getting an 11 seed and needing to win games in the Big East Tournament just to make the field

It seems like there were one or two other Sweet Sixteen runs where Xavier was on the bubble and had to play their way in late.

Conversely...

the year X got a #1 seed after being high in the rankings all year...out in the Round of 32

the year X got a #2 seed after being high in the rankings all year....out in the Round of 32

Sandwiched in between those two years was an Elite Eight appearance that came from a Xavier team that was squarely on the bubble

David West's senior year X was a bit of a national media darling...out in the Round of 32.


If this team gets in and goes on a deep run, no one will even remember that X was sweating at the end of February. That's not how anyone remembers those two Elite Eight runs. Maybe this is X's normal Elite Eight pace!!!

I'm half kidding. But, I'm only HALF kidding!

2004 is example #1 I point to when people say the conference tourney doesn’t matter and you won’t play your way in or out really by much. We went from out to a 7 seed with 3 wins that week.

[GoMuskies]

3 wins that week.

It was four. What a wild four days! Wish I could have been in Dayton for that.

[D-West & PO-Z]

It was four. What a wild four days! Wish I could have been in Dayton for that.

Yes typo. We became the first team to win 4 in 4 days and win their conference tourney. We did it again a couple years later.

I was at all 4 in Dayton and they were glorious!

[D-West & PO-Z]

Torvik gives us a 53% chance to win. Which is why I felt such a desire to get tickets today to go. Think we will have a great showing of fans there to cheer on the boys.

[X-band '01]

It was four. What a wild four days! Wish I could have been in Dayton for that.


Yes typo. We became the first team to win 4 in 4 days and win their conference tourney. We did it again a couple years later.

I was at all 4 in Dayton and they were glorious!

I was there for both the tournament from hell in 2003 as well as the tournament from heaven in 2004. I'm glad that the Saint Joe's and Dayton victories have been added to YouTube.

[Xville]

Don’t think they were really a threat anymore but Duke put the stake in wake’s chances

[Xville]

Some bubble games to hate watch tonight:

Georgia - South Carolina -----go cocks
Texas - Miss St ---go bulldogs
Arkansas - Vandy--- go Vandy
Baylor - TCU --- I think go TCU because they are out and Baylor is creeping toward the cut line
WVU- Utah ----Go UTES
UNC- Va Tech ---come on hokies
Nebraska - Ohio State ---can both lose? lol

[Xville]

second team out in bracket matrix...X is trending. Think if they win the next two X will be in but if they don't win the QTR game, it will all be about bid thieves

[GoMuskies]

Virginia Tech has been playing better of late. They could definitely take out the Heels tonight.

[GoMuskies]

Bubble Watch has Xavier at 38% (probably lower than realilty). I suspect that bakes in 40+% chance of losing at Butler (and virtually eliminating us), so it will be interesting to see what ESPN does with that number WHEN we beat Butler.

[Xville]

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

Just glancing over the Last four byes, Last four in, and first four out...just seems like a whole lot of mess. 12 teams fighting for 8 spots and they are all about the same in my view.

[X-band '01]

Some bubble games to hate watch tonight:

Georgia - South Carolina -----go cocks
Texas - Miss St ---go bulldogs
Arkansas - Vandy--- go Vandy
Baylor - TCU --- I think go TCU because they are out and Baylor is creeping toward the cut line
WVU- Utah ----Go UTES
UNC- Va Tech ---come on hokies
Nebraska - Ohio State ---can both lose? lol

I say cheer for Ohio State. If Nebraska loses that game and their finale against Iowa, there's a chance that not only the Huskers miss the NCAA Tournament, they may also miss the B1G Tournament. No way they qualify for the former if they can't even make it to the latter.

[xubrew]

I say cheer for Ohio State. If Nebraska loses that game and their finale against Iowa, there's a chance that not only the Huskers miss the NCAA Tournament, they may also miss the B1G Tournament. No way they qualify for the former if they can't even make it to the latter.

Probably not. But it has happened in baseball and softball!

[paulxu]

I say cheer for Ohio State.

That's hard to do.

[bjf123]

That's hard to do.

What he said!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[X-band '01]

Should I wag my finger like another poster and tell people to root for Kentucky instead?

[HenryMuto]

Should I wag my finger like another poster and tell people to root for Kentucky instead?

That was against Oklahoma not sure about you I prefer Xavier to have had Oklahoma lose and not be in the tournament.

Just because I root for Kentucky as well as Xavier as well as Ohio State as well as Cleveland State I don't expect any of you to root for the other 3 teams as well except when it makes sense for Xavier.

[HenryMuto]

Way to not show up Virginia Tech now I have to do the unspeakable and root for Duke against UNC on Saturday

[D-West & PO-Z]

Texas absolutely melting down in regulation and Miss State forces OT.

[Xavier]

Nova losing was nice, we should lock up a bye in the BET now.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Nova losing was nice, we should lock up a bye in the BET now.

Wow I didn’t see that. I saw they were up 9 under 4 mins.

[HenryMuto]

Tonight not going so well

[Xavier]

Yep. Bubble has a way of shrinking, it’s going to be interesting. Still, Nova loss was huge. If we win out, we will have a Q1 game that likely puts us on the right side with a shot at St John’s.

[MHettel]

The selection process has just gotten worse every year.

The Net is a black box. Nobody knows how it’s calculated. The Q system is based on the Net. Black box.

No more “last 10 games” to see which teams are coming in hot.

No consideration of conference standings.

No requirement to finish .500 in conference.

I look at the BE this year and I say “meh”. Pretty average year for a pretty good conference. I think 4 teams had been ranked in the top 10 at various points, and XU was in the top 25 for a couple weeks. But that’s irrelevant. 5 of 11 teams were considered among the top 25 at some point.

I’m not feeling too safe right now. Even winning out.

Last year the BE was a 4/5 bid league and got THREE. And won the title.

This year we are a sure fire 4 bid league….but are we a 5 bid league? Have to assume the committee isn’t different enough this year to look past their bias of FBall.

[Xville]

Not a good night for x. Really need Mizzou to put the nail in Oklahoma tonight, and oh yeah beat butler

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think it was good for X Nebraska lost to OSU. I know both are bubble but I think that’s the better result.

Overall not a great night. Texas and Arkansas both winning was brutal.

[Xville]

I think it was good for X Nebraska lost to OSU. I know both are bubble but I think that’s the better result.

Overall not a great night. Texas and Arkansas both winning was brutal.

Yeah I guess it was better that OSU won just because they were at home...so a Q2 win vs what would have been a Q1 Away win for Nebraska.

I think Ark pretty much punched their ticket last night, but believe Texas still has some work to do. If Oklahoma loses to Mizzou tonight, we may want to root for Oklahoma to win at Texas? Not sure.

[Xavier]

Indiana and SDST losing helps. Overall was tough night though. How the committee handles the SEC is going to be really interesting.

[OTRMUSKIE]

It was a tough night if you want to avoid the PIG, but IU losing and Nebraska losing and SDST losing was fantastic for X. Texas winning didn’t help nor did Arkansas. But X wins out and they are 100% a lock for the PIG. The winner of IU/OSU this weekend will most likely knock one of them out. X wins two they are in barring some major upsets in conference tournament's. Only thing you need to worry about with the NET is quads, that’s the only metric I believe they take from that. They will use, eyeballs, kenpom, BPI as well. Win two you’re in.

[xubrew]

My $0.02. X needs to win tonight, win this weekend, and win their BE quarterfinal game. That's the path. If they do any less than that they may still make it, but if they don't then no one can say that they actually deserved to be there. If X does all that and the committee still takes a team like Texas, or Oklahoma, or Ohio State instead, then we can complain. But if X doesn't win the next three then we can't complain about anything other than not winning more games prior to now.

[GoMuskies]

Who the hell do you think you're talking to 'brew?!? We can always complain. ALWAYS!

[xubrew]

Who the hell do you think you're talking to 'brew?!? We can always complain. ALWAYS!

I stand corrected!!!

[Xville]

My $0.02. X needs to win tonight, win this weekend, and win their BE quarterfinal game. That's the path. If they do any less than that they may still make it, but if they don't then no one can say that they actually deserved to be there. If X does all that and the committee still takes a team like Texas, or Oklahoma, or Ohio State instead, then we can complain. But if X doesn't win the next three then we can't complain about anything other than not winning more games prior to now.

I think this is reasonable. I feel like two more wins and x should get in, but I’ll understand if we don’t. IMO though x would beat any of the Oklahoma, Texas, Ohio state, Nebraska contingent on a neutral and I wouldn’t expect it to be that close. That’s the only thing that kind of bothers me about this whole thing

[Xavier]

It’s a scenario where I think if the committee disregards conference tournaments and X goes 2-0 to finish, they should be ok. If they use some of conference tournaments then winning the first game would be key.

Frankly, there are so many different numbers that help X and many that don’t. You never really know what exactly the committee deems “important” when looking at those numbers. Just freakin win tonight

[xubrew]

It’s a scenario where I think if the committee disregards conference tournaments and X goes 2-0 to finish, they should be ok. If they use some of conference tournaments then winning the first game would be key.

Frankly, there are so many different numbers that help X and many that don’t. You never really know what exactly the committee deems “important” when looking at those numbers. Just freakin win tonight

The reason I do NOT think this is because I don't think Xavier will be voted in on the first ballot. In fact I'd almost bet my life on it. They won't be with the first batch of teams that's placed in the field on the initial ballot. This means that when they're playing their quarterfinal game, X won't be in the field yet. But if they win it, I bet they get voted in after that. If they lose it, they'll stay on the board, and...who knows??

[HenryMuto]

Cincy down at home that should finish them without a long run in the conf tournament

[Xavier]

UConn is at 34 in the NET. Best Marquette and win last game it’s possible they move to 30?

[Xville]

UConn is at 34 in the NET. Best Marquette and win last game it’s possible they move to 30?

I doubt it just because the next game is seton hall. Maybe if they beat them by 50? lol. I think they could get to 32 or maybe 31 tonight if they win… maybe UConn wins a couple in msg (not against x) and gets to the magic number

[Xavier]

Still rather play Marquette than UConn in BET so hope UConn wins

[OTRMUSKIE]

The NET seems to reward a team when they lose, sometimes by 10 spots. So butler is at 78. If they jump to 75 they will be a quad 1. They prob have to beat Creighton but it’s possible. X beats the priest we are in the PIG. They are not going to leave out a 21-10 13-7 big east team with a kenpom of 41 and a NET OF 45-49. Just not happening … UNLESS they do. :)

[Xville]

Still rather play Marquette than UConn in BET so hope UConn wins

For sure

[HenryMuto]

I doubt it just because the next game is seton hall. Maybe if they beat them by 50? lol. I think they could get to 32 or maybe 31 tonight if they win… maybe UConn wins a couple in msg (not against x) and gets to the magic number

Just think everyone loved when Seton Hall beat UCONN but had UCONN not blown that game they might be in the NET top 30 right now.

[HenryMuto]

Missouri not helping out tonight Oklahoma winning big

[Xville]

Well, looks like Mizzou decided to not even show up tonight against Oklahoma. They play Texas on the road next. Could be a win and you’re in type of scenario, even though I don’t think either deserve it

[OTRMUSKIE]

Lots of win and you’re in games Saturday. Texas vs Oklahoma, OSU vs IU. X is getting a PIG with a win Saturday and no major big stealer’s next week.

[Xville]

Missouri making a little bit of a run. Only down 9 now with 8 mins left

[HenryMuto]

Joey Brackets put in UNC and has Xavier 1st out.

[Xville]

Oklahoma wins. Not a great bubble week for x… just keep winning

[HenryMuto]

Oklahoma wins tonight but probably still needs to win their last game to have any shot.

I keep hearing how no team has ever got at large bid with less than 2 true road wins (not sure if that is true) and Oklahoma only has 1 right now. (At Arkansas)

Their last game is at Texas

[Xavier]

If X wins and St. John’s beats Marquette, X will finish 4th in conference. Doesn’t change who we play in BET (Marquette) but at least we could add to the argument we finished 4th in the big east.

[Xville]

If X wins and St. John’s beats Marquette, X will finish 4th in conference. Doesn’t change who we play in BET (Marquette) but at least we could add to the argument we finished 4th in the big east.

Couldn't hurt. I just keep thinking about Seton Hall last year...X is going to be in about the same position as they were last year. Hall may have had a bad loss or two, but they also had more Q1 wins....13-7 in the Big East, 20 wins.

If X doesn't win their QTR game, gotta pray for a very small number of bid thieves.

[Xuperman]

It is POSSIBLE BU could beat CU on Saturday.

Say both UConn and MU win. There would be multiple 14-6 records. Creighton split with both teams. X will play a 14-6 team in the 4-5 opener at MSG. Any chance we get CU in that scenario? Can anyone find the link to that cool "tournament seeding calculator"?

[Xville]

It is POSSIBLE BU could beat CU on Saturday.

Say both UConn and MU win. There would be multiple 14-6 records. Creighton split with both teams. X will play a 14-6 team in the 4-5 opener at MSG. Any chance we get CU in that scenario? Can anyone find the link to that cool "tournament seeding calculator"?

If that occurs, almost positive marqutte would get the #4 seed because of losing to UConn twice. Creighton also beat sju so think they pretty much have all tie breakers with UConn/marquette

[Xavier]

Ville is right, wed still get Marquette:

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=bigeastm

[GoMuskies]

On3 (good as any, right?) projects us as the last team in as of today.

https://www.on3.com/news/2025-acc-basketball-tournament-projection-bracket-schedule-for-field-if-season-ended-today-march-6/

[webxu]

If that occurs, almost positive marqutte would get the #4 seed because of losing to UConn twice. Creighton also beat sju so think they pretty much have all tie breakers with UConn/marquette

What if Uconn loses to SH ( again) and X, Marquette and Uconn all end up 13-7. Any chance we get the 3 seed?

[X-band '01]

No. In the event of a 3-way tiebreaker:

UConn (3) was 3-1 against X and Marquette
Xavier (4) was 2-2 against UConn and Marquette
Marquette (5) was 1-3 against X and UConn

[94GRAD]

What if Uconn loses to SH ( again) and X, Marquette and Uconn all end up 13-7. Any chance we get the 3 seed?

Unfortunately, there is zero chance we can get to the 3 seed. All of those tiebreakers are against us. The best we can do is the 4 seed if Marquette loses to St. John's.

[Xavier]

The committee doesn’t just look at Q1 record. At least I hope, because when you look at Q1/2 record, X is as good if not better than most bubble teams around them. Granted a few are close enough they could just say let’s see how the Q1 separates these teams.

Compared to SEC Schools: Xavier is 9-10, Texas 8-13, Arkansas 7-12, Oklahoma 9-11, Georgia 8-11. Big 10 schools: OSU 9-13, Indiana 8-12

I think Texas/Oklahoma matchup and Indiana/OSU could be play in games and loser is out. I saw on twitter Oklahoma has like 2 road victories. Not sure how accurate, didn’t dig into it. I’m also not sure if committee still looks at things like that, with the quad system already taking that into consideration

[Xuperman]

What if Uconn loses to SH ( again) and X, Marquette and Uconn all end up 13-7. Any chance we get the 3 seed?

No, like these guys are saying....no chance for a 3 seed.

Here's the thing that appears to be a match up change for the 4-5 game. IF the Pirates beat the Huskies again....it looks like X gets UConn regardless of any other outcomes. Can someone back that up?

[94GRAD]

No, like these guys are saying....no chance for a 3 seed.

Here's the thing that appears to be a match up change for the 4-5 game. IF the Pirates beat the Huskies again....it looks like X gets UConn regardless of any other outcomes. Can someone back that up?

The only way we play UConn is if they lose and Marquette wins.

[Xuperman]

Ok, I see it now. Thanks.

[MHettel]

As we get down to what will be a razor thin margin to make the tourney, we will probably wind up with pretty much what we have already, but maybe thinned out a bit. We will probably have 7-8 teams battling for 4 spots. Unless there are bid thieves and then maybe it’s 2 or 3 spots to fight over.

Each team has their feather in the cap. Oklahoma is pretty awful, but has 3 very good wins early. All of the SEC bubble benefits from Auburn, Bama, Florida, and Tennessee….even though they didn’t beat any of this teams.

I see us coming in HOT. Does that matter? Is the committee allowed to consider that?

The other thing I see is that we went 1-2 when Free was out and I’m pretty sure that is considered.

We lost the first 2 when he returned….sitting at 9-7. We win on Saturday and it’s 12-3 since that point. That HAS to hold some weight. Only losses were AT SHU, AT CU, and AT Nova. Consider also that in the 27 games that Fremantle has played, he’s led in scoring 14 times and rebounding 16 times.

That’s an impact player that was missing during a key stretch. This is 100% an NCAA team with him in the lineup. Let’s hope the committee can look past the “black box” net info and SEC scheduling tricks to see what is pretty obvious.

[noteggs]

My only question is do we become a bid stealer when we win the BET?

[paulxu]

I saw on twitter Oklahoma has like 2 road victories.

I only see on true road win, @Arkansas.
How can a team with a 5-12 conference record be considered?

[Xuperman]

My only question is do we become a bid stealer when we win the BET?

Do you mean if we lose to Providence and disappear from any/all bracketology....and THEN win the BET?

Sure.
Sign me up.

[profson]

I only see on true road win, @Arkansas.
How can a team with a 5-12 conference record be considered?

Because the NCAA has made crystal clear that conference standings are irrelevant.

[noteggs]

Do you mean if we lose to Providence and disappear from any/all bracketology....and THEN win the BET?

Sure.
Sign me up.

Nah. Just a little tongue in cheek for those prognosticators on social.

[Xville]

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

win two more and feel safe

[GoMuskies]

Glad Joe thinks we're in for now, but I don't love the fact that three of the biggest brands in college sports are the teams right behind us. UNC obviously jumps us with a win against Dook. Decent chance winner of Texas and Oklahoma jumps us or at least gains on us. Perhaps we pass Indiana/Ohio State loser?

In any event, yeah, win 2 and feel good.

[Xville]

Glad Joe thinks we're in for now, but I don't love the fact that three of the biggest brands in college sports are the teams right behind us. UNC obviously jumps us with a win against Dook. Decent chance winner of Texas and Oklahoma jumps us or at least gains on us. Perhaps we pass Indiana/Ohio State loser?

In any event, yeah, win 2 and feel good.

If UNC beats Duke, that's probably the upset of the year. I just don't see it but crazier shit has happened. I think we want Texas to win...it's a q2 home win vs a q1 road win. The Ohio State/IN game i dunno..maybe have IU lose? Tough to figure out

[GoMuskies]

It's UNC/Dook. That's likely to be a close game in Chapel Thrill. UNC has a lot of talent underperforming. Never know when they'll break out for one evening.

[Xville]

It's UNC/Dook. That's likely to be a close game in Chapel Thrill. UNC has a lot of talent underperforming. Never know when they'll break out for one evening.

its an 11.5 point spread, but I understand what you're saying.

[bleedXblue]

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

win two more and feel safe

yeah thats almost a guarantee with a win over Marq or Uconn

[paulxu]

If your AD is the chairman of the selection committee...does that help?

[xubrew]

Because the NCAA has made crystal clear that conference standings are irrelevant.

...except when they decide that it is relevant.

[Xville]

Going to need Gtown's AD to speak up for us.

[xubrew]

Going to need Gtown's AD to speak up for us.

It can't hurt, but the Georgetown AD is not the person in charge of presenting and speaking for the Big East. So, he's not the one they'll be asking.

[waggy]

CBS look at the bubble

Hot streak or cold spell? NCAA Tournament temperature check for 12 bubble teams as conference tournaments loom (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/hot-streak-or-cold-spell-ncaa-tournament-temperature-check-for-12-bubble-teams-as-conference-tournaments-loom/)
(https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/hot-streak-or-cold-spell-ncaa-tournament-temperature-check-for-12-bubble-teams-as-conference-tournaments-loom/)

[noteggs]

CBS look at the bubble

Hot streak or cold spell? NCAA Tournament temperature check for 12 bubble teams as conference tournaments loom (https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/hot-streak-or-cold-spell-ncaa-tournament-temperature-check-for-12-bubble-teams-as-conference-tournaments-loom/)
(https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/hot-streak-or-cold-spell-ncaa-tournament-temperature-check-for-12-bubble-teams-as-conference-tournaments-loom/)

Thanks for sharing! Great article and I would to think most would agree with this sentiment.

Tho from what I’ve been told (and I’m sure you’ve read on here) what have you done lately doesn’t matter. Eye roll and BS

[HenryMuto]

That Seton Hall win over UCONN is loaming large. IF UCONN won that game they are probably top 30 NET and Xavier has 1 more quad 1 win and we wouldn't have to keep hearing about how Xavier has 1 quad 1 win. Hard to believe a few NET spots matter this much to keep Xavier out because UCONN is a few spots out of top 30.

The win that was needed was holding onto a 16 point lead at St John's had they held onto that win and beat Providence it been over.

[MHettel]

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/bracketology/ncaa-bracketology-2025-march-madness-men-field-predictions

win two more and feel safe

I’d take that bracket. I have 2 daughters attending Boise State, and I live in Seattle.