Sean Miller: The Thread

[sirthought]

One major sway that OSU would have in its favor is money from that huge media contract.

Miller might not care about his own salary, but coaches do put in a lot of time throughout the year helping to fundraise. When you have the size media contract that the Big 10 does, a lot of those athletic department money concerns are lessened. I know football soaks up much of that, but resources for all the sports are there in abundance.

Then the shift towards a massive alumni base focuses in on NIL fund raising and making sure you have assistants with the charisma to recruit top level talent. All that media money helps pad these needs for infrastructure. Things that Miller might wonder if XU can keep up.

The Big East is in the middle of media contract negotiations right now, supposedly. Fox has back-end rights. We've heard nothing. And as the SEC and Big 10 are expanding their future games available to air, the Big East has a number of programs trying to figure out how to stay on top. It's unfortunate that our larger schools aren't doing really well. UCONN is, obviously, and the Big East is a big reason why. But will it stay that way?

Fox, Warner Brothers Discovery, and Disney are creating a streaming venture, and programming inventory will be shifting. This could all impact the Big East and XU.

Part of me feels that Miller knows a program like Xavier can't be taken for granted and there's tremendous value in its position in the Big East. But if he's concerned about how strong the Big East can compete going forward he might just jump to a safer bet while the opportunity exists now. Even if the Big East gets a bigger contract (they will), will it be enough in this fast changing landscape?

[xukeith]

One major sway that OSU would have in its favor is money from that huge media contract.

Miller might not care about his own salary, but coaches do put in a lot of time throughout the year helping to fundraise. When you have the size media contract that the Big 10 does, a lot of those athletic department money concerns are lessened. I know football soaks up much of that, but resources for all the sports are there in abundance.

Then the shift towards a massive alumni base focuses in on NIL fund raising and making sure you have assistants with the charisma to recruit top level talent. All that media money helps pad these needs for infrastructure. Things that Miller might wonder if XU can keep up.

The Big East is in the middle of media contract negotiations right now, supposedly. Fox has back-end rights. We've heard nothing. And as the SEC and Big 10 are expanding their future games available to air, the Big East has a number of programs trying to figure out how to stay on top. It's unfortunate that our larger schools aren't doing really well. UCONN is, obviously, and the Big East is a big reason why. But will it stay that way?

Fox, Warner Brothers Discovery, and Disney are creating a streaming venture, and programming inventory will be shifting. This could all impact the Big East and XU.

Part of me feels that Miller knows a program like Xavier can't be taken for granted and there's tremendous value in its position in the Big East. But if he's concerned about how strong the Big East can compete going forward he might just jump to a safer bet while the opportunity exists now. Even if the Big East gets a bigger contract (they will), will it be enough in this fast changing landscape?

"our larger schools aren't doing really well."
who are the larger schools?

[Xville]

Outside of UConn they are DePaul and gtown.

[xudash]

If Miller isnt going anywhere, I would love to hear him say that. Maybe he did, but i doubt it. Consider me scarred from the last 5 guys that we felt the same way about.....only to have them leave.

Excluding Steele, 4 of the 5 guys that left did so while Xavier was still in the A10.

Our now 10+ year membership in the Big East has further shrunk the number of jobs that would be considered more attractive than the Xavier position. Sean also is as about as loyal as a HC of a D1 program can be. He also is a Big East guy (PITT).

Maybe he doesn't feel a need to say anything about that specifically, given everything else he's talking about now in terms of building Xavier for the future.

[bleedXblue]

Claude has no heart and I'm sure Miller is targeting him in his comments. It's stunning to me that posters i respect think he's developed significantly from last year to now.

Also, at least the same hysterical poster that keeps pointing fingers at Miller is being taken to the woodshed so there's that.

Well I guess it also depends on what your expectation was of him. If you thought he was going from a 4 PPG scorer to all Big East, then I'm not sure what to tell you. He's made some very good progress and of course needs to shoot 3's at a higher clip, be a better leader and defend better. He's the only guy on the roster right now with a legit shot at an NBA career. All in, I think he's had a pretty good year and look for him to continue improving next year.

[xudash]

One major sway that OSU would have in its favor is money from that huge media contract.

Miller might not care about his own salary, but coaches do put in a lot of time throughout the year helping to fundraise. When you have the size media contract that the Big 10 does, a lot of those athletic department money concerns are lessened. I know football soaks up much of that, but resources for all the sports are there in abundance.

Then the shift towards a massive alumni base focuses in on NIL fund raising and making sure you have assistants with the charisma to recruit top level talent. All that media money helps pad these needs for infrastructure. Things that Miller might wonder if XU can keep up.

The Big East is in the middle of media contract negotiations right now, supposedly. Fox has back-end rights. We've heard nothing. And as the SEC and Big 10 are expanding their future games available to air, the Big East has a number of programs trying to figure out how to stay on top. It's unfortunate that our larger schools aren't doing really well. UCONN is, obviously, and the Big East is a big reason why. But will it stay that way?

Fox, Warner Brothers Discovery, and Disney are creating a streaming venture, and programming inventory will be shifting. This could all impact the Big East and XU.

Part of me feels that Miller knows a program like Xavier can't be taken for granted and there's tremendous value in its position in the Big East. But if he's concerned about how strong the Big East can compete going forward he might just jump to a safer bet while the opportunity exists now. Even if the Big East gets a bigger contract (they will), will it be enough in this fast changing landscape?

Ohio State has over 1,100 student athletes. And we all know that Ohio State football is KING in Columbus. We'll see how all this shakes out, but those abundant resources are now going to have to fly some/most of their Olympic sports to 3 destinations on the West Coast, in addition to their current travel schedules, along with funding the balance of Ohio State's Income Statement.

NIL is an issue for us vis-a-vis a large state school due to the numbers, as you point out, but I wonder how much NIL is being mandated by the contributors to flow to football. We could guess, but NIL at a school like Ohio State may not be a panacea for its hoops program. Maybe they're so big it does enough.

We obviously only have to manage for basketball. Our facilities are top notch. If we have a weak link, it almost has to be in assistant coaching salaries.

If we end up "times 2 or better" with the media agreement - $8 million or more - then I would have to think that the powers that be on Victory Parkway and Sean Miller are going to like their position for the future. Use some of the additional $4 million for increased assistant coaching salaries and, maybe at some point, depending upon how things break, direct compensation to highly valued players.

Streaming may or may not become a problem. Streaming must still be monetized by the provider the same as they monetize linear. Streaming will certainly get to more precise viewership readings since it is digital, but perhaps part of it will be about how it is packaged moving forward. This one is a long term concern, but it isn't Armageddon yet.

I continue to hope for Sean staying at X, the media agreement going to at least "times 2", and having that media agreement last at least through the end of this decade. IMHO, that will enable the Big East brand to strengthen within the existing but evolving landscape, and it will further enable Xavier to thrive within the Big East and in NCAA D1 hoops in general.

[Xville]

Well I guess it also depends on what your expectation was of him. If you thought he was going from a 4 PPG scorer to all Big East, then I'm not sure what to tell you. He's made some very good progress and of course needs to shoot 3's at a higher clip, be a better leader and defend better. He's the only guy on the roster right now with a legit shot at an NBA career. All in, I think he's had a pretty good year and look for him to continue improving next year.

Swains ceiling is higher than des and he could be an nba player. He has a long way to go but he has the size, athleticism that nba Gms love and he is just scratching the surface. Again, a very long way to go but he has the god given tools.

I haven’t been able to verify it, but have heard he’s on an nba mock draft or two for ‘25

[xudash]

Claude has no heart and I'm sure Miller is targeting him in his comments. It's stunning to me that posters i respect think he's developed significantly from last year to now.

Also, at least the same hysterical poster that keeps pointing fingers at Miller is being taken to the woodshed so there's that.

My opinion only, but I don't see what you see with Desmond. I hope you're mistaking "no heart" with a quiet disposition. Could he have become more animated and vocal with his teammates? Perhaps, but that might not be in is personality.

I know this much, notwithstanding his woes behind the 3-point arc, Desmond Claude driving down hill to the rim is a scary proposition for the competition. I'm glad we have him.

I would think Sean's frustrations reside where most of our frustrations reside: with the front court.

[XUGRAD80]

My guess is that we see Nzeh starting tomorrow night.

At this point I don’t think it’s fair to begin speculating who won’t be here next year, but I think that if we watch playing time in these last 5 games (hopefully more!) we will get a pretty good indication of what the future holds for certain players.

I’ll also be watching the transfer portal to see who the rebounders that enter it are. Pretty sure X is going to do everything they can to bring in the best rebounders they can get out of it.

[Tim]

My opinion only, but I don't see what you see with Desmond. I hope you're mistaking "no heart" with a quiet disposition. Could he have become more animated and vocal with his teammates? Perhaps, but that might not be in is personality.

I know this much, notwithstanding his woes behind the 3-point arc, Desmond Claude driving down hill to the rim is a scary proposition for the competition. I'm glad we have him.

I would think Sean's frustrations reside where most of our frustrations reside: with the front court.

The talent is there. But the issues I see with Claude are...

1. He does not have the clutch gene.
2. Every player makes mistakes, but it seems to me his are almost always the most critical, pivotal, tone-setting, or momentum changing.
3. His constant attempts at the 3 have become selfish at this point.
4. In addition to lacking consistency from one game to the next, he lacks consistency from one half to the next in the same game.
5. I have no evidence other than the eye test, but he looks lazy to me the way he plays, especially mentally.

I don't mean to pile on Claude, I'm harder on him compared to the Euros and bigs because he DOES have the talent and my expectations for him are higher than what he is delivering, but they are NOT higher than what he CAN deliver, and part of that is passion.

[XUBison]

The talent is there. But the issues I see with Claude are...

1. He does not have the clutch gene.
2. Every player makes mistakes, but it seems to me his are almost always the most critical, pivotal, tone-setting, or momentum changing.
3. His constant attempts at the 3 have become selfish at this point.
4. In addition to lacking consistency from one game to the next, he lacks consistency from one half to the next in the same game.
5. I have no evidence other than the eye test, but he looks lazy to me the way he plays, especially mentally.

I don't mean to pile on Claude, I'm harder on him compared to the Euros and bigs because he DOES have the talent and my expectations for him are higher than what he is delivering, but they are NOT higher than what he CAN deliver, and part of that is passion.

The guy has carried us at many points this year. I can’t imagine what this s*it-show would have looked like without him. His mistakes at crucial times— well, he is the one with the ball at crucial times. Frankly, his game this year reminds me a lot of Naji’s during his last couple years, in which he was forced to carry a bad team.

We also don’t talk enough about the fact Claude was asked to Carey the team while playing out of position. His growth may not be on a perfect trajectory, but he is the least of my worries. — Now watch, he won’t play the rest of the season, as it becomes evident he is the one in Sean‘s doghouse. :)

[drudy23]

I’ve said from the beginning of the season:

1) Claude did not get better. Yes, his averages have gone up because of more minutes and more opportunity, but I can’t pinpoint any skill development that is better than last year, and his shooting is worse. I do think he’s a great piece on a good team, but he doesn’t seem to be built for the lead role.
2) This roster isn’t good enough.

Both were accurate then and still accurate today.

[bjf123]

Sound alike we might see a very different group of guys playing tomorrow night.

https://x.com/barstoolsports/status/1762526781339267571?s=46&t=BFaRhpzSZFkQ7RbyDYbL8g


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[XUGRAD80]

I think that both things are true….

Claude has carried the team at times and statistically is the 2nd best player on the team

Claude also disappears at times, isn’t a great clutch player, and has holes in his game


But he’s still just a true sophomore and hopefully will fill some of those holes over the next two years. I don’t think that he will ever become a good 3 point shooter though.

[Xuperman]

I think that both things are true….

Claude has carried the team at times and statistically is the 2nd best player on the team

Claude also disappears at times, isn’t a great clutch player, and has holes in his game


But he’s still just a true sophomore and hopefully will fill some of those holes over the next two years. I don’t think that he will ever become a good 3 point shooter though.

This is what I know.....it will be a HUGE loss if he transfers. He is a Steele guy.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Claude has no heart and I'm sure Miller is targeting him in his comments. It's stunning to me that posters i respect think he's developed significantly from last year to now.

Also, at least the same hysterical poster that keeps pointing fingers at Miller is being taken to the woodshed so there's that.

Fresh: 20.8 mins/game, 42.3 FG%, 29.3 3pt%, 57.1 FT%, 2.5 rebs, 1.8 assts, 0.8 steals, 4.7 pts
Soph: 33.6 mins/game, 40.4 FG%, 21.3 3pt%, 78.7 FT%, 4.3 rebs, 3.4 assists, 1 steal, 15.5 pts

There is zero doubt he has developed significantly. He's had to take on a lot more than last year obviously. His shooting is down, I think that is partly from the volume increase from last year to this year and being the guy or one of the guys and needing to be more selective.

Did he make the jump some expected? No. Some thought he could be 1st team all BE. He didn't make that level jump. But he still had to take on a lot more and made a jump.

The next step is taking a jump from soph to jr year similar to one Colby took. Colby greatly improved his 3pt % and his overall play. Let's hope Des can do the same.

[D-West & PO-Z]

He's the only guy on the roster right now with a legit shot at an NBA career.

Not true.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/39598715/2025-nba-mock-draft-full-two-round-projections

ESPN just came out with a 2025 NBA Mock draft. They have Swain the 2nd pick in the 2nd round #32 overall.

[drudy23]

I don’t think Miller was calling out Claude, but could be wrong. I guess we will see tonight.

[UCGRAD4X]

Fresh: 20.8 mins/game, 42.3 FG%, 29.3 3pt%, 57.1 FT%, 2.5 rebs, 1.8 assts, 0.8 steals, 4.7 pts
Soph: 33.6 mins/game, 40.4 FG%, 21.3 3pt%, 78.7 FT%, 4.3 rebs, 3.4 assists, 1 steal, 15.5 pts

There is zero doubt he has developed significantly. He's had to take on a lot more than last year obviously. His shooting is down, I think that is partly from the volume increase from last year to this year and being the guy or one of the guys and needing to be more selective.

Did he make the jump some expected? No. Some thought he could be 1st team all BE. He didn't make that level jump. But he still had to take on a lot more and made a jump.

The next step is taking a jump from soph to jr year similar to one Colby took. Colby greatly improved his 3pt % and his overall play. Let's hope Des can do the same.

FG% down, 3pt% down considerable, FT% way up mostly because last year sucked badly - but ok,

If you consider more than 60% increase in min/game, rebs, assists, steal hardly up at all (rebounds perhaps because nobody else is and assists because he is in that position more).

I like Des and hope this year ends up as an anomaly but hardly 'significant' in my practically worthless opinion.

[muskiefan82]

I don’t think Miller was calling out Claude, but could be wrong. I guess we will see tonight.

I was thinking this was a Gytis/Lazar directed comment

[drudy23]

I was thinking this was a Gytis/Lazar directed comment

Agree.

[bleedXblue]

Not true.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/39598715/2025-nba-mock-draft-full-two-round-projections

ESPN just came out with a 2025 NBA Mock draft. They have Swain the 2nd pick in the 2nd round #32 overall.

LOL ok

[bleedXblue]

I don’t think Miller was calling out Claude, but could be wrong. I guess we will see tonight.

I dont know, but the lack of effort on D against Marq was almost across the board and unacceptable.

[drudy23]

I dont know, but the lack of effort on D against Marq was almost across the board and unacceptable.

Also agree. Seeing 5 walk one would be pretty funny. At this point, whatever.

[xudash]

Fresh: 20.8 mins/game, 42.3 FG%, 29.3 3pt%, 57.1 FT%, 2.5 rebs, 1.8 assts, 0.8 steals, 4.7 pts
Soph: 33.6 mins/game, 40.4 FG%, 21.3 3pt%, 78.7 FT%, 4.3 rebs, 3.4 assists, 1 steal, 15.5 pts

There is zero doubt he has developed significantly. He's had to take on a lot more than last year obviously. His shooting is down, I think that is partly from the volume increase from last year to this year and being the guy or one of the guys and needing to be more selective.

Did he make the jump some expected? No. Some thought he could be 1st team all BE. He didn't make that level jump. But he still had to take on a lot more and made a jump.

The next step is taking a jump from soph to jr year similar to one Colby took. Colby greatly improved his 3pt % and his overall play. Let's hope Des can do the same.

I agree with you totally.

Maybe I'm not looking at this properly, but looking at statistical data for a single player from one year to the next without factoring in the dynamics of the team that plays around and with him isn't a good way to evaluate his performance. Let's liken it to DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY in an Olympic dive. Desmond's "degree of difficulty" shot through the roof this year when Freemantle and Hunter went down. Imagine him being in a more fluid and effective offense with those two on the floor. What could his numbers have looked like then?

For the nth time, we see a team that has come to lack an effective front court. Our backcourt has very little breathing room.

[Xville]

Yeah it certainly wasn't a Lazar comment since the guy didn't even play that game. Could be a Gytis comment, but I think it could be a few folks. Bringing in Colbert, makes me think it is directed toward one of the guards as well. Could be any of them. Honestly though I barely watched any of the second half ...no need to, and Miller probably thought the same lol.

The only reason I am going to watch tonight is to see who plays.

[D-West & PO-Z]

FG% down, 3pt% down considerable, FT% way up mostly because last year sucked badly - but ok,

If you consider more than 60% increase in min/game, rebs, assists, steal hardly up at all (rebounds perhaps because nobody else is and assists because he is in that position more).

I like Des and hope this year ends up as an anomaly but hardly 'significant' in my practically worthless opinion.

His per 40 mins stats are all up as well. Points is doubled. He's made a jump. Significant is just relative I guess.

[D-West & PO-Z]

LOL ok

I mean you could just admit you were wrong......

I'm not saying Swain will be drafted that high or surefire NBA but people a lot smarter than you and I when it comes to basketball have him targeted as a drafted player in 16 month and you think he doesn't even have a shot at the NBA.

[bleedXblue]

I mean you could just admit you were wrong......

I'm not saying Swain will be drafted that high or surefire NBA but people a lot smarter than you and I when it comes to basketball have him targeted as a drafted player in 16 month and you think he doesn't even have a shot at the NBA.

I said legitimate chance. Of course he could make it, but his offensive game needs massive improvement.

And I hope Im wrong in a big way.

[Xville]

I mean you could just admit you were wrong......

I'm not saying Swain will be drafted that high or surefire NBA but people a lot smarter than you and I when it comes to basketball have him targeted as a drafted player in 16 month and you think he doesn't even have a shot at the NBA.

yep i wrote about him a page or two back and thought I had seen or read that he was included in mock drafts. Not really that hard to figure out if you (not directed toward you just in general) watch the NBA at all as to why. He has the size and athleticism that NBA GM's love. Obviously he has to refine his game quite a bit, but he has the God given tools that make him attractive at that level.

I liken it to the same discussion with people here who see a guy in high school score 30 points a game and wonder why he isn't a high d1 prospect. It's really not hard to figure those things out.

For example, there are two sophomores here in Louisville that go to rival high schools (St. X and Trinity). The St X kid is 6'4 215 and an absolute beast in high school but plays mostly inside. The Trinity kid is 6'5, 175 but has guard skills. Not hard to figure out who the bigger d1 prospect is even if you hadn't seen them live. BTW UC supposedly has offered both. X is keeping an eye on the Trinity kid who already has offers from IU, Mizzou, WVU etc.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I said legitimate chance. Of course he could make it, but his offensive game needs massive improvement.

And I hope Im wrong in a big way.

Of course it does, as did Claudes from freshman year (and still does).

Claude is nowhere to be seen on that mock btw.

Maybe Jonathan Givony is really Swain's uncle though, or something. You should drop him a line and let him know, Swain does not have a legit chance.

[bleedXblue]

Of course it does, as did Claudes from freshman year (and still does).

Claude is nowhere to be seen on that mock btw.

Maybe Jonathan Givony is really Swain's uncle though, or something. You should drop him a line and let him know, Swain does not have a legit chance.

Mock drafts are a bunch of garbage. Especially 2025. Total SWAGs

[D-West & PO-Z]

Mock drafts are a bunch of garbage. Especially 2025. Total SWAGs

I think you are missing the point.....

[Xville]

Mock drafts are a bunch of garbage. Especially 2025. Total SWAGs

I'd look up Jonathan Givony. Not like he is some kid living in his parents' basement with a draft blog. Swain has a legit shot.

[bleedXblue]

I'd look up Jonathan Givony. Not like he is some kid living in his parents' basement with a draft blog. Swain has a legit shot.

Swain is 6'6 and has some good athleticism. What this guy is basing his projection on I have no idea? Its a wild ass guess. That is all.

[Xville]

Swain is 6'6 and has some good athleticism. What this guy is basing his projection on I have no idea? Its a wild ass guess. That is all.

He's 6'7 with NBA athleticism at a 2/3 position. He's basically Naji, (frame, attribute wise) if you want a comparable.

With all that said, obviously he has a lot to work on from a skillset point, and he needs to put on muscle but 6'7 guys with that kind of athleticism and a guard skillset don't grow on trees and NBA gm/scouts love it. He's only 18...very young for his class where Claude by comparison is 20 and will turn 21 before Swain turns 19.

[XUGRAD80]

Swain is 6'6 and has some good athleticism. What this guy is basing his projection on I have no idea? Its a wild ass guess. That is all.


And want any NBA team would want with a 6’6” athletic basketball player I have no idea. (Sarcasm)

Swain is 18 years old. He’s the youngest player on the team. Think of yourself at 18 and then think of yourself at 22. Swain might be scary good by the time he becomes 22. Many NBA draft picks are picked purely on potential and aren’t expected to become immediate impact players, especially 2nd rounders. How much Swain improves in this coming offseason, both physically and as a player, may well be an indication of what his true potential is. It looks like the person who made this projection believes that he will make some serious progress over the next 12 months. Let’s hope so. My uneducated and amateur opinion is that he has a higher ceiling than Claude. But only time will tell.

[94GRAD]

Swain is 6'6 and has some good athleticism. What this guy is basing his projection on I have no idea? Its a wild ass guess. That is all.

People with more NBA draft knowledge than you are saying he can be drafted. How about sitting this one out?

[bjf123]

People with more NBA draft knowledge than you are saying he can be drafted. How about sitting this one out?

Sit something out? You must be new around here! [emoji2369] [emoji1787] [emoji2357]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Xavier]

Mock drafts are a bunch of garbage. Especially 2025. Total SWAGs

Meh. People said the same thing when Naji and Colby were on lists and posters suggested they each might leave early. Having said that, both Naji and Colby were a year or more further along and you could see the potential. Swain has the frame and athleticism but has a long way to go.

[JTG]

Meh. People said the same thing when Naji and Colby were on lists and posters suggested they each might leave early

Swain has some polishing to do before he reaches Naji or Colby talent. Although I love the fast break dunks, he needs to develop a few more weapons. But he needs to teach the dunk to the rest of his teammates, especially the bigs.

[muskiefan82]

Swain has some polishing to do before he reaches Naji or Colby talent. Although I love the fast break dunks, he needs to develop a few more weapons. But he needs to teach the dunk to the rest of his teammates, especially the bigs.

If he can develop a reliable jump shot, Swain has an excellent shot.

[MHettel]

He's 6'7 with NBA athleticism at a 2/3 position. He's basically Naji, (frame, attribute wise) if you want a comparable.

With all that said, obviously he has a lot to work on from a skillset point, and he needs to put on muscle but 6'7 guys with that kind of athleticism and a guard skillset don't grow on trees and NBA gm/scouts love it. He's only 18...very young for his class where Claude by comparison is 20 and will turn 21 before Swain turns 19.

Is anyone thinking about the impact NIL will be having on the NBA draft?

It used to be that guys would enter the draft before they were ready for the NBA because that was the way to paid as fast as possible. The NIL will keep players in college for an additional year in a lot of cases. So those guys will still enter the draft, but they will do it a year later and be a lot closer to NBA ready than they used to be.

I don’t expect the trend will be to see guys like Swain getting drafted in the second round based on potential. The 2025 draft is going to be next summer. Swain was a nice player this year as a freshman and shows defensive skills. Offensively he’s got a long way to go. I expect him to improve next year and start. I’m not sure that he can work his way into the draft.

A good 2026 or 2027 draft projection? Yeah, I could see that. 2025? I really think that’s not well thought through

[Xville]

Is anyone thinking about the impact NIL will be having on the NBA draft?

It used to be that guys would enter the draft before they were ready for the NBA because that was the way to paid as fast as possible. The NIL will keep players in college for an additional year in a lot of cases. So those guys will still enter the draft, but they will do it a year later and be a lot closer to NBA ready than they used to be.

I don’t expect the trend will be to see guys like Swain getting drafted in the second round based on potential. The 2025 draft is going to be next summer. Swain was a nice player this year as a freshman and shows defensive skills. Offensively he’s got a long way to go. I expect him to improve next year and start. I’m not sure that he can work his way into the draft.

A good 2026 or 2027 draft projection? Yeah, I could see that. 2025? I really think that’s not well thought through

I agree that in a lot of cases it will, but if you can get a guaranteed second round contract (like Colby did) or a first round projection, I think you still leave because you want to mitigate your risk. I do agree though with what you are saying when it comes to some guys---Edey rings a bell (somehow they got his NIL figured out) or Tshiebwe for Kentucky a year or so ago etc.

So much of the NBA draft and GMs/Scouts picks will still be on potential and ceiling but yeah if you get that 2nd round grade without the protection of a guaranteed contract, yeah you stay now.

[Jumpin_Jamal_Forever]

Is anyone thinking about the impact NIL will be having on the NBA draft?

It used to be that guys would enter the draft before they were ready for the NBA because that was the way to paid as fast as possible. The NIL will keep players in college for an additional year in a lot of cases. So those guys will still enter the draft, but they will do it a year later and be a lot closer to NBA ready than they used to be.

I don’t expect the trend will be to see guys like Swain getting drafted in the second round based on potential. The 2025 draft is going to be next summer. Swain was a nice player this year as a freshman and shows defensive skills. Offensively he’s got a long way to go. I expect him to improve next year and start. I’m not sure that he can work his way into the draft.

A good 2026 or 2027 draft projection? Yeah, I could see that. 2025? I really think that’s not well thought through

At least as the NIL applies to X, I would assume if you are drafted by an NBA team (remember, there's just two rounds) you will be compensated at a much higher rate than one could earn staying at X. Is more likely to affect whether or not a player leaves early to try out for the NBA. I don't know the G League compensation levels but assume a good player can earn, via NIL, as much as an average G League player.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

Is anyone thinking about the impact NIL will be having on the NBA draft?

It used to be that guys would enter the draft before they were ready for the NBA because that was the way to paid as fast as possible. The NIL will keep players in college for an additional year in a lot of cases. So those guys will still enter the draft, but they will do it a year later and be a lot closer to NBA ready than they used to be.

I don’t expect the trend will be to see guys like Swain getting drafted in the second round based on potential. The 2025 draft is going to be next summer. Swain was a nice player this year as a freshman and shows defensive skills. Offensively he’s got a long way to go. I expect him to improve next year and start. I’m not sure that he can work his way into the draft.

A good 2026 or 2027 draft projection? Yeah, I could see that. 2025? I really think that’s not well thought through

This is a good way to look at it. I think we saw it last year a bit where kids stayed for another year in college because their NIL payout exceeded what an NBA 2-way contract pays. I think it will have a much greater impact (to fewer players) in the women's game. I could easily see the top female college players getting paid significantly more to stay vs WNBA salaries and Euro salaries.

[XUMIOH12]

Is anyone thinking about the impact NIL will be having on the NBA draft?

It used to be that guys would enter the draft before they were ready for the NBA because that was the way to paid as fast as possible. The NIL will keep players in college for an additional year in a lot of cases. So those guys will still enter the draft, but they will do it a year later and be a lot closer to NBA ready than they used to be.

I don’t expect the trend will be to see guys like Swain getting drafted in the second round based on potential. The 2025 draft is going to be next summer. Swain was a nice player this year as a freshman and shows defensive skills. Offensively he’s got a long way to go. I expect him to improve next year and start. I’m not sure that he can work his way into the draft.

A good 2026 or 2027 draft projection? Yeah, I could see that. 2025? I really think that’s not well thought through

This is having an effect on football more than basketball (not to say it isn't having an effect on basketball).

2024 NFL draft has the least amount of early entrants since 2011. (2011 and earlier drafts were around 50 or less early entrants per year)

2014: 98 (this was the most early entrants ever in a draft at the time)
2015: 74
2016: 96
2017: 95
2018: 106
2019: 103
2020: 115
2021: 130
2022: 73
2023: 69
2024: 58

[XUMIOH12]

This is a good way to look at it. I think we saw it last year a bit where kids stayed for another year in college because their NIL payout exceeded what an NBA 2-way contract pays. I think it will have a much greater impact (to fewer players) in the women's game. I could easily see the top female college players getting paid significantly more to stay vs WNBA salaries and Euro salaries.

Absolutely the case! WNBA salaries are very low. Even the top draft picks start out with a rookie contract between $50-$70k for their first four (I think) seasons. The top WNBA salaries of everyone top out around $250k. So I'd imagine the very very top of the womens college players would get paid more in college.

[MHettel]

At least as the NIL applies to X, I would assume if you are drafted by an NBA team (remember, there's just two rounds) you will be compensated at a much higher rate than one could earn staying at X. Is more likely to affect whether or not a player leaves early to try out for the NBA. I don't know the G League compensation levels but assume a good player can earn, via NIL, as much as an average G League player.

Isn’t your scenario a worse situation for us? Imagine Swain has a standout season as a soph. He’s a beast on defense and puts up some DBrown level offense.

At that point, he’s got THREE options. Stay at X for whatever NIL we can offer. Put in for the draft hoping for round 1 or a guaranteed 2nd round contract. OR just enter the portal to get more NIL than X can offer with the ability to improve his NBA prospects for the following year.

Honestly, which of those options seems like a very good short and long term play?

[Xavier]

Assuming he can get more elsewhere. But if you are on track to go to the NBA at X, with a coach who consistently sends players to the nba, would you really transfer to a new coach/system that might not end up working out for an extra $50K? Some might. But not really worth the risk IMO. But I’m not in their shoes.

As for NIL keeping guys from the NBA. I’m not really sure on that. The biggest beneficiary to that in regards to NIL are for Centers. I love the nba but I like that traditional big are still an important part of college bball.

[XUBison]

FWIW… I was listening to an interview on SiriusXM College Sports Radio this afternoon with a bball reporter, whose name I did not catch (apologies). He was talking about the names that came up when the OSU job came open, including Sean. Nothing new there, I know, but he mentioned a shortlist of about four names he is hearing are still in the running, with Sean again on that list. He went on to say that OSU is deliberately taking a nontraditional approach by moving in-season to fill the position. Apparently, they are trying to preempt competition with other high-profile jobs that might come open, hoping to have the position filled by the time the portal opens. I am paraphrasing from memory, but I think that’s an accurate summary.

I’m not sure there’s really anything new there, but I thought I’d pass it along.. I tried to find a programming schedule to figure out who it was, but I wasn’t finding anything. The interview was about 45 minutes ago, for anyone who cares to put more effort into it.

[Xavier]

They did it at that time for a couple reasons IMO. AD is on his way out and wanted a final stamp before he left. He will have some say in next coach. But I’m also guessing they’d like to beat Michigan to the punch as Howard is likely gone after this year, too.

I have no worry whatsoever about him going to OSU. If unexpected job opens up and comes calling, we will see.

[MHettel]

They did it at that time for a couple reasons IMO. AD is on his way out and wanted a final stamp before he left. He will have some say in next coach. But I’m also guessing they’d like to beat Michigan to the punch as Howard is likely gone after this year, too.

I have no worry whatsoever about him going to OSU. If unexpected job opens up and comes calling, we will see.

Again. Just anticipate what makes sense when a rule is changed.

We already know that rosters will turnover 35-50% per year for the teams that have some NIL. Rosters will be set using the portal. 3 years of scouting HS players can be reduced to just plucking the “all conference” players from other teams.

Replacing a coach late in the cycle can set a team back by 2-3 years. I’m fact, trying to hire a coach late in the cycle could actually play into the decision by the coach to take a job. Would you take the job at a “better” school if the portal was picked through and last years roster had bolted?

Fire quick, hire quick. Work the portal.

The BAD news here is that the sooner a team goes out for the year, the quicker their coach becomes available to hire.

[UCGRAD4X]

and an assistant coach gets then through the NIT