Xavier & the BE Bubble

[MHettel]

We are still alive with a shot at the Dance. We could remove all doubt and run off a 10 game winning streak....but I doubt it. I think we are going to be sweating over these next 10 games, so I want to understand what lies ahead of us that WE can control, and how the rest of the BE bubble is shaping up.

The BE Bubble

-Uconn (1), MU (2), and CU (3) are locks for this exercise
-SJU (9), Provi (10), & SHU (11) are projected in as of earlier this week.
-Butler & Nova are among teh next 8 out.
-We are somewhere beyond the next 8 out and considered among the bottom 3 teams with DePaul & GTown...


The reality is that the BE will NOT be getting 8 teams in. 5-6 is likely, and maybe 7 if some of these teams get hot and not cannibalize the others. We need to find the path to jump from 9th to 6th.

SHU is 7-4 and has only 2 games left against the top 3. 5 home games, 4 away. Im rooting for SHU to win as much as possible (expect against us, of course). They could deal 2 losses to Nova (who is currently 4-6) and basically knock them out. In addition they can get Ws against Butler & SJU. I assume they will beat GTown and DePaul. I see them finishing 4th, with 13 wins and looking at a 8 seed or so.

Butler is at 6-5 after a solid win last night AT Creighton. Their schedule is tough with 1/3 of their remaining games agains the top 3. In addition, they have 5 games against other at-large hopefulls and only 1 game left against the bottom 2. They helped themselves yesterday, but lets root for Butler to miss any of those bigwin chances and also lose to us and @ Nova, @ SHU and either home vs SJU or Providence. finish out 2-7 with us providing the final dagger @ Hinkle. Butler misses

Providence is 5-5 and has a pretty balanced schedule left. I'd like to see Providence do JUST enough to get in....right behind us. Provi can help knock out Nova with 2 wins. As mentioned above, beating Butler at home would be great. Also, need them to win @ SJU. Avoid bad losses against GT or DePaul. 6-4 finish puts them at 11-9 but with 2 losses to us if all goes welll. 6th BE team in, probably with a game in Dayton.
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SJU is 5- 6 and frankly we need them to fold down the stretch. but their schedule is favorable with only 2 games against teh top 3, and 4 games left against GT and DePaul. It appears that might need Butler to beat them at Hinkle, although we're rotting against Butler as well. I see SJU ending with 9,10, or 11 wins which puts them in the mix, but we need to get in front of them somehow.

Nova is the outsider in my mind. Currently 4-6 with 4 games reaming against SHU and Prov. Lets just root for SHU and Prov and then a game @ Uconn should give them 5 more losses and pu them under .500 and out of the discussion.

Turning my attention to the XU schedule, I'm grouping our final 10 games into 3 categories
Must Wins (also known as bad losses)- @ DePaul, vs DePaul, @ GT, @ Butler (4 wins)
Toss-Ups (need to win 1)- Vs Nova, vs. Prov
Good Wins / Ok Losses- (Need to win 1)- VS CU, @SHU, @ MU, VS MU

This would get us to 11-9, but more importantly into the top 5 in the BE standings. That could be enough. I only have us winning 1 of 4 "good wins" remaining on our schedule. Obviously there are several other chances for us in that group as well.

Bottom line is we must win those 4 "must win" games, starting tonight.

What to root for (in order): Xavier against anyone, UConn / MU / CU against everyone else, SHU against everyone on the bubble, Root for Providence generally , root against Nova, Butler, & SJU.

[Xville]

I don’t mean for this to sound flippant but it probably does. Place in standings means zero to the committee. It’s not something they look at in the slightest so it doesn’t matter what any of them do, only what x does. Win 12 in reg season and x is in.

Nova at home they need to win. That’s a quad 2 game, butler is a quad 1. X could lose that game and be fine, but they should stack as many quad 1s as possible. They have five left, would be nice to win 3 but 2 should suffice if they avoid the bad losses which is the DePaul games, gtown.

[profson]

Root against any bubble team in and out of league. Of course we have to win games to get to the bubble but once there we want a weak bubble.

[MHettel]

I don’t mean for this to sound flippant but it probably does. Place in standings means zero to the committee. It’s not something they look at in the slightest so it doesn’t matter what any of them do, only what x does. Win 12 in reg season and x is in.

Nova at home they need to win. That’s a quad 2 game, butler is a quad 1. X could lose that game and be fine, but they should stack as many quad 1s as possible. They have five left, would be nice to win 3 but 2 should suffice if they avoid the bad losses which is the DePaul games, gtown.

I’ll purposely sound flippant. I disagree about the committee not giving any consideration of conference standings. It is likely that there could be 2-3 BE teams fighting on the bubble. You don’t think it will matter the way those teams ranked in conference? You think they might take the 7th ranked team over the 5th.

That’s nonsense.

We have 8 of 11 teams currently in the discussion. We make 9. Many of the remaining Big East games will matter to us. I don’t see us going 7-3, so we need help. 7-3 probably DOES get us in, and 5-5 probably means we don’t. So 6-4 is what matters most, but other circumstances will factor in

[Xville]

I’ll purposely sound flippant. I disagree about the committee not giving any consideration of conference standings. It is likely that there could be 2-3 BE teams fighting on the bubble. You don’t think it will matter the way those teams ranked in conference? You think they might take the 7th ranked team over the 5th.

That’s nonsense.

We have 8 of 11 teams currently in the discussion. We make 9. Many of the remaining Big East games will matter to us. I don’t see us going 7-3, so we need help. 7-3 probably DOES get us in, and 5-5 probably means we don’t. So 6-4 is what matters most, but other circumstances will factor in

I never said they’d take 7th over 5th. I said conference standings don’t matter which is 100% true. They don’t factor conference standings in any of their discussions when selecting teams, it’s just not a factor. If you want to argue bubble teams here and there in and out of our conference , ok I can see your point.

If you want a recent example, vandy didn’t make it over miss st, auburn or ark last year in the sec even though they easily finished ahead of both of them.

[MHettel]

I never said they’d take 7th over 5th. I said conference standings don’t matter which is 100% true. They don’t factor conference standings in any of their discussions when selecting teams, it’s just not a factor. If you want to argue bubble teams here and there in and out of our conference , ok I can see your point.

If you want a recent example, vandy didn’t make it over miss st, auburn or ark last year in the sec even though they easily finished ahead of both of them.

And I’m not saying it’s a deciding factor. But it absolutely is part of the soup.

In the Vandy case, I’m sure the committee discussed the relative standings in the Sec. they obviously could justify their decisions so they made it.

I don’t know much about the divisions in the SEC, but I know schedules are not balances.

With the BE double round robin, it’s hard to NOT let the standings be an actual reflection of the ranks of the teams

[Xville]

And I’m not saying it’s a deciding factor. But it absolutely is part of the soup.

In the Vandy case, I’m sure the committee discussed the relative standings in the Sec. they obviously could justify their decisions so they made it.

I don’t know much about the divisions in the SEC, but I know schedules are not balances.

With the BE double round robin, it’s hard to NOT let the standings be an actual reflection of the ranks of the teams

Ok. You’re wrong. You’ll probably still try to say you’re right but whatever. Below is the actual criteria.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-explaining-the-team-sheets-the-selection-committee-uses-to-compare-ncaa-tournament-resumes/amp/

[MHettel]

Ok fine. You’ll probably still try to say you’re right but whatever. Below is the actual criteria.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/bracketology-explaining-the-team-sheets-the-selection-committee-uses-to-compare-ncaa-tournament-resumes/amp/

Ok fine. Maybe we’ll get to see this played out in real life instead of in a chat room.

If the criteria was so defined and exact, we’d just let the computers tell us the bracket.

The existence of the committee is evidence that more than just the guidelines are taken into consideration

[Xville]

Ok fine. Maybe we’ll get to see this played out in real life instead of in a chat room.

If the criteria was so defined and exact, we’d just let the computers tell us the bracket.

The existence of the committee is evidence that more than just the guidelines are taken into consideration

lol as I figured. See things in plain black and white and still won’t admit you’re completely wrong but ok.

[Xavier]

I appreciate the hard work. I typically lean towards Xville here where they don’t look at standings. But, I want to finish as high as possible. If we can be 5th, great. Doubt we can catch SH, but it’s certainly possible and if we beat them again we can.

All of that is to say, I actually think with how many BE teams are grouped in the last 4 in/first 4 out category, finishing 5th might help. Regardless, I’m still of believe that if we get to 18-13, we will be in. Anything worse and we’d have to probably get to BE finals while beating Uconn or something in doing so.

[MHettel]

I appreciate the hard work. I typically lean towards Xville here where they don’t look at standings. But, I want to finish as high as possible. If we can be 5th, great. Doubt we can catch SH, but it’s certainly possible and if we beat them again we can.

All of that is to say, I actually think with how many BE teams are grouped in the last 4 in/first 4 out category, finishing 5th might help. Regardless, I’m still of believe that if we get to 18-13, we will be in. Anything worse and we’d have to probably get to BE finals while beating Uconn or something in doing so.

18-13 means a 7-3 finish. And all of this is moot.

6-4 is where this matters. And we need help

[MHettel]

lol as I figured. See things in plain black and white and still won’t admit you’re completely wrong but ok.

Lol as I figured. No substance

[Xavier]

18-13 means a 7-3 finish. And all of this is moot.

6-4 is where this matters. And we need help

Yeah, I just don’t see us getting in with 15 losses, barring a run where we beat Uconn in BE tournament is all. The one thing that’s tricky is teams we beat we want to win, but we’re battling out bubble spots with them so it’s kinda tough. (Butler/SH/…..UC- but I’m ok they can win a few, they won’t make it through gauntlet of Big 12)

[Xville]

Lol as I figured. No substance

No substance? I sent you the article that outlines the criteria in black and white. That’s plenty of substance.

Just because you feel or think something, doesn’t make it true, the article full of substance does.

If you want to be an ass that can’t admit when he’s wrong, that’s on you.

There’s a committee because there are many factors at play as the article stated and tough decisions have to be made. Some things get weighed more than others in some years. However, as the article stated, conf standing isn’t one of them.

[MHettel]

No substance? I sent you the article that outlines the criteria in black and white. That’s plenty of substance.

Just because you feel or think something, doesn’t make it true, the article full of substance does.

If you want to be an ass that can’t admit when he’s wrong, that’s on you.

There’s a committee because there are many factors at play as the article stated and tough decisions have to be made. Some things get weighed more than others in some years. However, as the article stated, conf standing isn’t one of them.

So all you have “contributed” this year is we will be 12-8 and that will get us in.

Well 12-8 gets any BE team in ANY year. How is that insightful.

And we’re 5-5. But suddenly we’re a 7-3 team.

This is going to be a nailbiter. We have very little room if we are 6-4.

We’re currently viewed as 9th. This is 5 or 6 bid league. I’m betting we get 6 in, and seeding will align to the finish order of the BE.

Wildcard is BET, and I’m not going there.

[Xuperman]

No substance? I sent you the article that outlines the criteria in black and white. That’s plenty of substance.

Just because you feel or think something, doesn’t make it true, the article full of substance does.

If you want to be an ass that can’t admit when he’s wrong, that’s on you.

There’s a committee because there are many factors at play as the article stated and tough decisions have to be made. Some things get weighed more than others in some years. However, as the article stated, conf standing isn’t one of them.

Admin...there should be a site sign that reads "Don't feed the Troll".

[Xville]

So all you have “contributed” this year is we will be 12-8 and that will get us in.

Well 12-8 gets any BE team in ANY year. How is that insightful.

And we’re 5-5. But suddenly we’re a 7-3 team.

This is going to be a nailbiter. We have very little room if we are 6-4.

We’re currently viewed as 9th. This is 5 or 6 bid league. I’m betting we get 6 in, and seeding will align to the finish order of the BE.

Wildcard is BET, and I’m not going there.

Oh so now we are going to deflect and move the goalposts to take away from the fact you’re wrong? I have already stated as to how and why we will be 12-8 or even better 13-7. Just because you chose to ignore that, doesn’t mean I didn’t “contribute” more than that. You can read my outline in other threads.

Your contribution was speaking to something that doesn’t matter because it’s not a factor in the criteria. Way to go I guess.

Are we gelling yet?

[Xville]

Admin...there should be a site sign that reads "Don't feed the Troll".

Don’t you have a nonsensical political rant or des rant to get to?

Or do I have to prove your nonsense wrong like I did lou who tucked his tail and ran when I called out his bs the other day?

[Xuperman]

Troll away and show your pathetic self.

Just continue to expose yourself. Light makes the roaches scurry.

[Xuperman]

You are...and continually to prove, you are not in anyway a serious person.

Textbook troll.....NOTHING more.

[MHettel]

Oh so now we are going to deflect and move the goalposts to take away from the fact you’re wrong? I have already stated as to how and why we will be 12-8 or even better 13-7. Just because you chose to ignore that, doesn’t mean I didn’t “contribute” more than that. You can read my outline in other threads.

Your contribution was speaking to something that doesn’t matter because it’s not a factor in the criteria. Way to go I guess.

Are we gelling yet?

You the one all knotted up over this. I think 6-4 is reasonable, and we need some help. Facts. If we get that help, the standings shake out a certain way that puts us slightly above some of the BE bubble teams.

You can twist that into whatever form you want. If you want to read that as a strict connection between standings and the “criteria” in your article, then so be it. I’m saying we are in a crowded mess and we are t in the best spot.

We need to avoid bad losses, split the toss up games and steal at least one good win. Yet even if we do this exact thing, the final outcome will more than likely have to do with how butler, SJU and Nova finish

[Xville]

You the one all knotted up over this. I think 6-4 is reasonable, and we need some help. Facts. If we get that help, the standings shake out a certain way that puts us slightly above some of the BE bubble teams.

You can twist that into whatever form you want. If you want to read that as a strict connection between standings and the “criteria” in your article, then so be it. I’m saying we are in a crowded mess and we are t in the best spot.

We need to avoid bad losses, split the toss up games and steal at least one good win. Yet even if we do this exact thing, the final outcome will more than likely have to do with how butler, SJU and Nova finish

You talk about conference standings and then say I’m twisting something by talking about conference standings, ok. X isn’t going 6-4 so we don’t have to worry about it. 7-3 at worst, well 6-3 now.

Avoid losing to gtown and DePaul and go 4-3 the rest of the games. It’s really not a daunting task at all considering x has beaten providence and hall already, lost by one to nova on the road and have creighton at home who isn’t that great, that x let slip away and got McDermotted.

All that matters is what x does here on out. If the resume is good enough (quad 1 and 2 wins, no more bad losses etc) then they will be in. If not, they won’t. What nova, sju or butler does only factors in that they could be bubble teams with similar resumes just like every other bubble team that isn’t in our conference. Their “ ranking” in our conference has zero to do with whether they or x are chosen.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Without reading all of this , I will sum it up pretty easily. Go 19-14 and don’t lose to DePaul at home or Gtown on the road and you dance. Don’t need 6 paragraphs to state the obvious. 19-14 gets you in the PIG

[X-band '01]

I’ll purposely sound flippant. I disagree about the committee not giving any consideration of conference standings. It is likely that there could be 2-3 BE teams fighting on the bubble. You don’t think it will matter the way those teams ranked in conference? You think they might take the 7th ranked team over the 5th.

That’s nonsense.

We have 8 of 11 teams currently in the discussion. We make 9. Many of the remaining Big East games will matter to us. I don’t see us going 7-3, so we need help. 7-3 probably DOES get us in, and 5-5 probably means we don’t. So 6-4 is what matters most, but other circumstances will factor in

In the Big East, you can put a little more weight on conference standings with a balanced schedule. Unfortunately, most conferences are unbalanced schedules so you can't really go by conference standings alone. If you're Memphis and you're a game over .500 in the American without Houston, Cincinnati and even UCF, that's obviously going to hurt them in that regard.

[OTRMUSKIE]

19-14

[fellahmuskie]

So all you have “contributed” this year is we will be 12-8 and that will get us in.

Well 12-8 gets any BE team in ANY year. How is that insightful.

And we’re 5-5. But suddenly we’re a 7-3 team.

This is going to be a nailbiter. We have very little room if we are 6-4.

We’re currently viewed as 9th. This is 5 or 6 bid league. I’m betting we get 6 in, and seeding will align to the finish order of the BE.

Wildcard is BET, and I’m not going there.


The reason a 5-5 team could go 7-3 in the second half is because we play DePaul and Georgetown three times and don't play uconn again. It's not that complicated. Xville isn't saying Xavier is going to play out of its mind. The math is there to do it, plain and simple.

We went 4-3 against non DePaul/Georgetown/Uconn. In the second half, we need to go 4-3 against those teams again (and obviously sweep DePaul/georgetown).

[drudy23]

If we can stay in the top 4-5 and get a bye, you would think that would have to warrant major consideration.

I'd take the PIG in a heartbeat the way this season has gone. Next 4 very winnable.

[HenryMuto]

The only time where a team finished in the standings matters is the teams that finish in 1st place. All teams finishing in 1st at least get consideration on the at large board if they lose in their conf tournament.

Most leagues have unbalanced schedule though the BE does not have this.

The committee only cares about who you played (W/L) and where you played. They do not care 1 bit about where you finished in the league standings save 1st place.

[HenryMuto]

X can still make it but it is going to be awfully tough. You just can't lose home games to Oakland and Delaware. Odds are very much stacked against X at this point with those 2 devastating losses.

[Xville]

The only time where a team finished in the standings matters is the teams that finish in 1st place. All teams finishing in 1st at least get consideration on the at large board if they lose in their conf tournament.

Most leagues have unbalanced schedule though the BE does not have this.

The committee only cares about who you played (W/L) and where you played. They do not care 1 bit about where you finished in the league standings save 1st place.

Thank you

[STL_XUfan]

X can still make it but it is going to be awfully tough. You just can't lose home games to Oakland and Delaware. Odds are very much stacked against X at this point with those 2 devastating losses.
Two things that we learn each Selection Sunday, and then collectively forget:

1. Conference Tournament performance is not relevant. Unless you win the tournament, you are not playing your way in or out by picking up a win or two in your conference tournament. They are too far down the bracketing to reevaluate after each game.

2. Big wins mean way more than bad losses. They will quickly overlook our Q3 losses as long as the Q1 win number is high enough. They want teams in the tournament that have proven that on their best day they can compete with anyone.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Def disagree with #1. They absolutely have an impact. Of X goes 18-13 and loses first game in the BEAST they are done.

[xukeith]

If X goes 18-13, they will likely have a NET and kenpom ranking in the 25-30 range. That visibilty metric will be a good thing for X.

[MHettel]

The only time where a team finished in the standings matters is the teams that finish in 1st place. All teams finishing in 1st at least get consideration on the at large board if they lose in their conf tournament.



Where does this come from exactly. As far as I know it's not a rule of any kind. And in practice, this probably isnt what happens. I dont think the committe will look at the regualr season conference winner from the 30th best conference and even pretend to give them at large consideration.

[XUGRAD80]

I believe that X making it to the conference final last year definitely had an impact on them getting a 3 seed.

[HenryMuto]

Where does this come from exactly. As far as I know it's not a rule of any kind. And in practice, this probably isnt what happens. I dont think the committe will look at the regualr season conference winner from the 30th best conference and even pretend to give them at large consideration.

I used to do my own bracket projections since the early 90s way before most others were doing it. I quit doing it recently because everyone and their brother are doing it now so what is the point. It used to be fun in the early 2000's when it was me vs Palm vs Joey Brackets and that was basically all I was comparing myself to. I once had a 9-1 lead over Palm the first 10 years he was showing his brackets.

It is listed here that they put the 1st place teams on the at large board for consideration but they won't last there long if they have no real chance.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-03-09/how-field-68-di-mens-teams-picked-march-madness-each-season

3. The committee will form an "under consideration” board consisting of an alphabetical listing of teams that:

a. Received at least four votes in either of the columns of the initial ballot but did not receive enough votes to be an at- large team; or

b. Won or shared the regular-season conference championship, as determined by the conference’s tie-break policy where applicable. This does not include teams that won or shared a division title but were not the regular-season conference champion.

[HenryMuto]

X probably needs to go 6-3 in the final 9 games (This would make them 18-13). This is why the Oakland and the Delaware losses were so devastating it wasn't that they were just home Quad 3 losses it was the fact it makes it that much harder to get 4 or 5 or 6 games above .500.

If X goes 5-4 in the last 9 this puts them at 17-14. if they lose their first BE game they would be 17-15 and that isn't going to get a bid.

If they go 6-3 that put them at 18-13 and still makes a 1st round loss 18-14 and makes things very dicey.

Near must wins needed

Villanova
Providence
DePaul
@ G'Town

That be 4 wins and only the DePaul game is a lock. Nearly lost already at home to G'Town so on the road isn't a for sure thing.
Won at Prov by 20 but still beating them at home won't be a cakewalk.
Nova is never easy but they have to get that win really missed a huge chance with that 1 point loss on the road.

Well that is 4 so somehow they need to come up with 2 more wins from

Creighton
@ Seton Hall
@ Marquette
@ Butler
Marquette

To get 6 out of the 9 next isn't going to be easy.

While some thing the BE tournament don't matter we have been in this situation many times recently and I can recall twice losing in the 1st game (8/9 games I think) and saying we had to win that game or we were out. We were indeed out the 1 year and the other was the 2020 covid year I believe.

If we are sitting at 17-14 that 1st game will be 100% must win you are not getting in 2 games above .500. Not sure X gets in at 18-15 if they win 1 and then lose.

Really need to win 6 out of the last 9 and see where X stands at that point but at 18-13 would be a great start and would give a solid quarter finals game so a loss wouldn't kill them.

[X-band '01]

I believe that X making it to the conference final last year definitely had an impact on them getting a 3 seed.

There's no consistency year in and year out simply because members of the Selection Committee change every year. Some members put more emphasis on conference tournament than others. Texas A&M, for example, could have easily made the 2021-22 Tournament but ended up getting snubbed despite a run to the SEC Championship game. They would also end up not winning the NIT that year because of some guy named Jack Nunge.

[XUGRAD80]

There's no consistency year in and year out simply because members of the Selection Committee change every year. Some members put more emphasis on conference tournament than others. Texas A&M, for example, could have easily made the 2021-22 Tournament but ended up getting snubbed despite a run to the SEC Championship game. They would also end up not winning the NIT that year because of some guy named Jack Nunge.

Read what I said again…..”on them getting a 3 seed”. NOT on them getting into the tourney.

How teams do in their conference tourney may not often make a difference between getting into the tourney or not, but it does often make a difference in the seeding of the tournament. That’s all I’m saying.

[Xavier]

We beat butler by 14. We beat SH by 20. I fully expect X will win one of those on the road. I could even see both. Providence, gtown, DePaul are easy wins. I’m more nervous about Nova but should win at home.


That gets us to 5 wins. We will have to win one of the following: at Marquette/SH. Home: Creighton/Marquette.
According to Bart Tovik:
Home against Creighton: X-1
Home Against Marquette: X +2
Away at SH: X+3.

6-3 gets us in easily. Anything less does not. Team Ranking gives X a 60% as of today to make the tournament. I’d say it’s closer to 50/50

[X-band '01]

I wouldn't count on Providence being an easy game, but I still think it's a game that Xavier should win.

Villanova will be nerve wracking in that you never know which Nova team shows up night in and night out.

[chico]

We beat butler by 14. We beat SH by 20. I fully expect X will win one of those on the road. I could even see both. Providence, gtown, DePaul are easy wins. I’m more nervous about Nova but should win at home.


That gets us to 5 wins. We will have to win one of the following: at Marquette/SH. Home: Creighton/Marquette.
According to Bart Tovik:
Home against Creighton: X-1
Home Against Marquette: X +2
Away at SH: X+3.

6-3 gets us in easily. Anything less does not. Team Ranking gives X a 60% as of today to make the tournament. I’d say it’s closer to 50/50

Winning on the road in this conference is hard. We lost to St. John's by 15. UConn's only conference loss is at Seton Hall. I'm thinking more like 7 total wins - including the BE tourney - gets us in. I know there are those that think the tourney won't help but I do think it helps bubble teams. We make a nice little run in the tourney and it puts us ahead of other bubble teams that may lose early in their tourneys.

This team definitely has the talent to get there, and Miller has a good handle on his players' strengths and weaknesses. And he always has a history of having his teams play better in March. I think 60% is a good number for our post-season chances.

[xubrew]

Where does this come from exactly. As far as I know it's not a rule of any kind. And in practice, this probably isnt what happens. I dont think the committe will look at the regualr season conference winner from the 30th best conference and even pretend to give them at large consideration.

Practically, you are correct. Technically, the committee does look at all the 1st place teams.

All 1st place teams and division winners (although I don't think any conferences even have divisions anymore) start off on the nomination board and are there until they are voted off. Now, within a matter of minutes, a motion is probably made to remove all first place teams that didn't get any votes in the first ballot to either be put in the field or considered for the field, so it's a technicality and not a practicality, but TECHNICALLY SPEAKING the first place team from the 30th ranked conference will be there when the process begins.

GENERALLY speaking, I think a lot of people who consider themselves "bracketologists" look at what's on the teamsheets and what's in the guidelines, and thinks of those as being limitations to what the committee can and cannot look at or can and cannot discuss. Then, if something is out of whack, they all say the committee got it wrong. The reality is they can pretty much measure the teams however they want and discuss whatever they want. The process is far more qualitative than quantitative. The points of emphasis change from year to year as the committee changes from year to year. But, regardless of how the teams are measured, or who they're being measured by, AT LEAST 60 of the 68 teams are going to be obvious to everyone, so I guess it works well enough.

[MHettel]

Practically, you are correct. Technically, the committee does look at all the 1st place teams.

All 1st place teams and division winners (although I don't think any conferences even have divisions anymore) start off on the nomination board and are there until they are voted off. Now, within a matter of minutes, a motion is probably made to remove all first place teams that didn't get any votes in the first ballot to either be put in the field or considered for the field, so it's a technicality and not a practicality, but TECHNICALLY SPEAKING the first place team from the 30th ranked conference will be there when the process begins.

GENERALLY speaking, I think a lot of people who consider themselves "bracketologists" look at what's on the teamsheets and what's in the guidelines, and thinks of those as being limitations to what the committee can and cannot look at or can and cannot discuss. Then, if something is out of whack, they all say the committee got it wrong. The reality is they can pretty much measure the teams however they want and discuss whatever they want. The process is far more qualitative than quantitative. The points of emphasis change from year to year as the committee changes from year to year. But, regardless of how the teams are measured, or who they're being measured by, AT LEAST 60 of the 68 teams are going to be obvious to everyone, so I guess it works well enough.

In my mind something is important if it is either 1) specific criteria that can be used, or 2) serves as an excellent predictor of what the committee will decide.

I tried to review the BE standings for the last 7 years and align it to the selection and seeding of the BE teams in the Dance. i think there was one case where a team was not picked in favor of a team below it in the standings, and a couple of cases where the seedings didnt follow EXACTLY to the standings. But also, I didnt bother to check how the BET played out, so possibly / probably that came into play.

Back in the mid 2000s, I built an RPI Calculator that replicated the actual RPI down to like 4 decimal places. people argued that it wasnt used by the committee which was IRRELEVANT, becasue ti predicted their actions anyway.

[xubrew]

In my mind something is important if it is either 1) specific criteria that can be used, or 2) serves as an excellent predictor of what the committee will decide.

I tried to review the BE standings for the last 7 years and align it to the selection and seeding of the BE teams in the Dance. i think there was one case where a team was not picked in favor of a team below it in the standings, and a couple of cases where the seedings didnt follow EXACTLY to the standings. But also, I didnt bother to check how the BET played out, so possibly / probably that came into play.

Back in the mid 2000s, I built an RPI Calculator that replicated the actual RPI down to like 4 decimal places. people argued that it wasnt used by the committee which was IRRELEVANT, becasue ti predicted their actions anyway.

The conference standings are in the workbooks, and the conference records, including conference tournament games, are on the teamsheets. Or, at least they used to be.

And on top of that, the room they are in does have internet. They can look up anything they want.

[Three Point Pete]

I wouldn't count on Providence being an easy game, but I still think it's a game that Xavier should win.

Villanova will be nerve wracking in that you never know which Nova team shows up night in and night out.Geez, I'm nervous because Butler, Hall, Providence and Creighton all are counting on beating Xavier!

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[GoMuskies]

Maybe someone said this somewhere already in this thread, but it feels like Wednesday is an elimination game. Granted, every game feels like an elimination game for Xavier these days, but this one feels like an elimination game for both teams.

[Xavier]

Meh. I wouldn’t say that exactly, because if they went on to beat both Creighton and Marquette at home then it wouldn’t matter. It’s one of the two or three tipping point games remaining though, and the thing that has me nervous is Nova is either dang good or dang bad. Never know what you’re going to see.

[GoMuskies]

Lunardi posted his latest Bracketology, and if he's right it's going to be a wild final stretch in the Big East. Currently, Butler is among the last four in, Seton Hall is the last team in, St. John's is the first team out and Providence and Villanova are among the NEXT four out. That doesn't even account for us, and we must be among the next four or so after that. So no less than SIX Big East teams fighting for their Tournament lives right on the Bubble.

Again, that's probably the theme of this thread anyway, but the Lunardi Bracketology brought it into sharp relief.

[Xville]

2-0 this week and X is bubblicious. Get it done boys!

[Three Point Pete]

Meh. I wouldn’t say that exactly, because if they went on to beat both Creighton and Marquette at home then it wouldn’t matter. It’s one of the two or three tipping point games remaining though, and the thing that has me nervous is Nova is either dang good or dang bad. Never know what you’re going to see.Agreed. There's a higher probability of splitting vs. getting swept when considering Nova, Creighton, and Marquette. Marquette goes as Kolek goes, and he has disappeared for a few games thus season.

I am hoping that "Dr. Jekyll" Xavier shows up for every game, and "Mr Hyde" takes a nap.

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[XUMIOH12]

Looks like Xavier has crept in to the Next 4 Out. Win Saturday and they are probably right on the edge of In/Out (for the time being).

[MHettel]

As far as things kind of going the way I was hoping, the only game that went the “wrong” way was Nova beating providence. The XU win over Nova was a toss up to me, so that helps. Every team that was on the bubble (or in the mix) from last week is still in play. We need a couple of these teams to take a bad loss and play their way out

[Xville]

Just keep winning. They are all big right now but the next two games are huuuuge!

2-0 and we can start booking our tournament plans with the way the rest of the schedule is.
1-1 and in good shape for that 18-13 finish
0-2 ruh roh

[MHettel]

As far as things kind of going the way I was hoping, the only game that went the “wrong” way was Nova beating providence. The XU win over Nova was a toss up to me, so that helps. Every team that was on the bubble (or in the mix) from last week is still in play. We need a couple of these teams to take a bad loss and play their way out

Just now saw that Providence took out CU last night. That really helps them. Makes their loss to Nova sting more. So crowded

[XUMIOH12]

Just now saw that Providence took out CU last night. That really helps them. Makes their loss to Nova sting more. So crowded

Creighton didn't do us any favors losing to butler and providence back to back over the last week. Maybe they can do us a favor and lose to us on saturday.

[XUMIOH12]

Just keep winning. They are all big right now but the next two games are huuuuge!

2-0 and we can start booking our tournament plans with the way the rest of the schedule is.
1-1 and in good shape for that 18-13 finish
0-2 ruh roh

Agree here. Might even stretch it out to the next 4 games. vs creighton, @ seton hall, vs providence, at marquette. Feel like that is almost a make or break stretch. 2 wins and we are on track, still in the mix, bought more time. Only win 1 or 0 of those games and that makes things really tough. Of course, win 3 or 4 and they are all of a sudden in good shape.

The 2 games following these are vs Depaul and at georgetown. Would be feeling good with 2-2 heading in to these.

[paulxu]

They say guard play is the key in the BE.
We seem to be OK in that department.
But I don't think we go very far, or even get in the dance, unless our front court starts to gel and contribute more; on offense and defense.

[Xville]

They say guard play is the key in the BE.
We seem to be OK in that department.
But I don't think we go very far, or even get in the dance, unless our front court starts to gel and contribute more; on offense and defense.

I like the way Ousmane has been progressing this year. He does some stupid things, and he is never going to be a guy that offensively you can really count on, but his defense is above average and I like his intensity. However, I agree that X needs something out of the 4 spot on a consistent basis. Obviously Miller agrees which is why he was so pissed at Gytis last night.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I don’t mean for this to sound flippant but it probably does. Place in standings means zero to the committee. It’s not something they look at in the slightest so it doesn’t matter what any of them do, only what x does. Win 12 in reg season and x is in.

Nova at home they need to win. That’s a quad 2 game, butler is a quad 1. X could lose that game and be fine, but they should stack as many quad 1s as possible. They have five left, would be nice to win 3 but 2 should suffice if they avoid the bad losses which is the DePaul games, gtown.

I agree. I mean I want X to finish as high as they can because that means they are stacking up wins, but I don't think the committee considers who finished where in conference more so looking at the overall resume.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Two things that we learn each Selection Sunday, and then collectively forget:

1. Conference Tournament performance is not relevant. Unless you win the tournament, you are not playing your way in or out by picking up a win or two in your conference tournament. They are too far down the bracketing to reevaluate after each game.

2. Big wins mean way more than bad losses. They will quickly overlook our Q3 losses as long as the Q1 win number is high enough. They want teams in the tournament that have proven that on their best day they can compete with anyone.

#2 I agree with #1 I absolutely do not.

I know there are more recent examples but prior to the 2004 A-10 tourney we were not in the tournament if we lose the 1st game.

I think you can get in our out based on conference tourney and seeds can also change.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I believe that X making it to the conference final last year definitely had an impact on them getting a 3 seed.

Absolutely it did.

[D-West & PO-Z]

We beat butler by 14. We beat SH by 20. I fully expect X will win one of those on the road. I could even see both. Providence, gtown, DePaul are easy wins. I’m more nervous about Nova but should win at home.


That gets us to 5 wins. We will have to win one of the following: at Marquette/SH. Home: Creighton/Marquette.
According to Bart Tovik:
Home against Creighton: X-1
Home Against Marquette: X +2
Away at SH: X+3.

6-3 gets us in easily. Anything less does not. Team Ranking gives X a 60% as of today to make the tournament. I’d say it’s closer to 50/50

I don't think 6-3 can get us in easily while 5-4 definitely does not. Just logically that can't make sense right?

When you say easily I assume you mean not in the play in game?

[D-West & PO-Z]

I like the way Ousmane has been progressing this year. He does some stupid things, and he is never going to be a guy that offensively you can really count on, but his defense is above average and I like his intensity. However, I agree that X needs something out of the 4 spot on a consistent basis. Obviously Miller agrees which is why he was so pissed at Gytis last night.

Yep. Time for Swain's mins to go up. His upside outweighs his freshman errors at times. Play Swain at the 4.

[chico]

I like the way Ousmane has been progressing this year. He does some stupid things, and he is never going to be a guy that offensively you can really count on, but his defense is above average and I like his intensity. However, I agree that X needs something out of the 4 spot on a consistent basis. Obviously Miller agrees which is why he was so pissed at Gytis last night.

Have never heard Sean lay into a player like he did Gytis last night - "at times we thought he was playing for Villanova."

[Xavier]

I don't think 6-3 can get us in easily while 5-4 definitely does not. Just logically that can't make sense right?

When you say easily I assume you mean not in the play in game?

I just mean surely getting name called, but could be in Dayton. According to Bart tovik:
Finishing regular season 18-13 has X 73% of time

17-14 would be 45%. So not exactly surely out, I guess.
19-12 has them in 91% while closely resembling an 8 seed.

I feel very good that 18-13 gets them in. 17-14 does not. Because they’d finish with 15 losses (assuming they didn’t win BET in which case it doesn’t matter) with 2 Q3 losses. 18-15 just doesn’t seem like there’s a chance. 19-14 looks like classic PIG territory

[OTRMUSKIE]

18-15 mathematically can’t happen unless you include dance or NIT. 18-13 can and 18-14 can . As long as we don’t lose at home and beat town and puke and win first game in beast, I think that gets us in the PIG.

[Xavier]

X can finish 17-14 and go 1-1 in the BET, which is how I’m predicting the tournament to go and finish 18-15. Unless my math is that far off, or maybe I’m missing something

It’s why I also looked at 19-14 (18-13 regular season, 1-1 BET)

If they don’t lose at home that’s wins over Creighton and Marquette. They’d comfortably be in then. Honestly maybe even up at the 9/10 seed range.

[X-band '01]

Have never heard Sean lay into a player like he did Gytis last night - "at times we thought he was playing for Villanova."

Yup - Ousmane made it out of the doghouse after last night and Gytis ended up with the Presidential suite.

[MHettel]

Gytis is a nice rebounder (especially ORebs), and his scoring around the rim is OK. but he HAS to shoot better from deep becasue most of his looks are uncontested from the top of the key which is generally the highest percentage 3 to take.

One thing about the Euro's (all of them) is the low assist, steal, and block numbers. They are still combining for right at 41 minutes a game in BE Play, so thats 20% of total minutes played (or said differently) they are one of 5 guys on the court at all times...

in 41 minutes they combine to average 2.4 Assist, .75 Blocks, and .4 steals. Those are just woefully low numbers. many guys hit these averages playing 25-28 minutes a game. We just need more.

This is why Swain seems so valuable. He's not offensively good yet, but when he comes in for eth Euro's its barely noticable offensively. Defvensively, however, hes a huge upgrade.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I just mean surely getting name called, but could be in Dayton. According to Bart tovik:
Finishing regular season 18-13 has X 73% of time

17-14 would be 45%. So not exactly surely out, I guess.
19-12 has them in 91% while closely resembling an 8 seed.

I feel very good that 18-13 gets them in. 17-14 does not. Because they’d finish with 15 losses (assuming they didn’t win BET in which case it doesn’t matter) with 2 Q3 losses. 18-15 just doesn’t seem like there’s a chance. 19-14 looks like classic PIG territory

I agree 100% with those estimated %'s.

Let's get it done!

The best would be us making it and UC collapsing and not, lmao.

[profson]

What are you talking about? Even after the Villanova game he is at 35% from 3 which is not bad for a forward. He, Green and
McNight are essentially tied for 2nd behind Olivari (all between 34-36%).

[MHettel]

What are you talking about? Even after the Villanova game he is at 35% from 3 which is not bad for a forward. He, Green and
McNight are essentially tied for 2nd behind Olivari (all between 34-36%).

I assume you were talking to me?

Gytis takes wide open catch and shoot 3s from the top of the key. How many of those have you seen Olivari, Green, and McKnight take? Not many, cause those guys would hit 60% from there. Our best shooter have to work the hardest to take the toughest shots they can get and still nail near 40%.

Remember free last year? He didn’t shoot at all for the first half of the year, and then was nails when the clock ran down and he could catch and shoot open with no pressure. He was great at that.

Those are the looks that Gytis is getting.

I believe some guys get left open on purpose to entice them to shoot. I’m not sure Gytis is in that spot. But clearly defending his outside shot is not a priority

[UCGRAD4X]

The only thing that matters to me is that he hits them.

Miller may think the hit rate, although not horrible, is not high enough to warrant not being under the basket or not being able to get back when he misses, or something else.

[Xville]

Not that he has the best track record, but lunardi now has x in his next four out. Creepin’ up

[drudy23]

UC v XU in the PIG? I would have to make the drive up for that one.

Now that I think about, since we beat them, just put us in.

[D-West & PO-Z]

UC v XU in the PIG? I would have to make the drive up for that one.

Now that I think about, since we beat them, just put us in.

That would be pretty nuts. I went to the PIG when we played NC State. What a miserable game that was. And of course the whole arena was rooting for NC State.

If X is in the PIG I will be there.

[Xville]

That couldn't happen since we played them in the reg. season, right? Thought that couldn't happen until sweet 16 round?

[MHettel]

Big East Games that I care about this weekend, and can impact XU's bubble status....

1- XU over Creighton
2- Marquette over SJU
3- Butler over Providence- BIG game for both teams, and could nudge Providence out of the discussion for awhile.
4- Seton Hall over Nova- Could be the deathblow for Nova...

IF we get all of these results, XU would be 8-5 and AHEAD of Creighton at #4 by ourselves. Creighton and Butler would be 7-6, and SJU & prov will be 6-7. Nova at 5-8 would be n life support.

However, IF all goes as planned but NOVA beats SHU, then XU would then be tied for THIRD with SHU, and Nova would be alive at 6-7.

Have to assume that just an XU win over Creighton gets us into the bracket, unless of course no other bubble teams lose....

[D-West & PO-Z]

That couldn't happen since we played them in the reg. season, right? Thought that couldn't happen until sweet 16 round?

I'm not sure if that applies for the play in game. That is a good question though.

[D-West & PO-Z]

https://bball.notnothing.net/bigeast.php?sport=mbb

I love this site, usually don't start messing around on it for another week or so but started early this year. There are realistic scenarios where we could be the 3 seed. I'll be nervous for every remaining game. Winning Saturday would be huge, lets get it done.

[MHettel]

I'm not sure if that applies for the play in game. That is a good question though.

What would they do if this was the situation? Tell one of teh teams "sorry" you would have made the playin game but we picked a different team instead and you are not in teh tourney at all?

Or, have one of the teams swithc with an 11 that WASNT going to be in the PIG?

I think they just have to let it be

[xubrew]

That couldn't happen since we played them in the reg. season, right? Thought that couldn't happen until sweet 16 round?


I'm not sure if that applies for the play in game. That is a good question though.

They would absolutely do it for the play-in game. Regular season rematches are avoided for the Round of 64, and conference rematches against a team you've played twice are avoided for the Rounds of 64 and 32. Nothing is avoided for the First Four. it could be two teams from the same conference that have already played each other three times and they'd still pair them together.

[Xville]

They would absolutely do it for the play-in game. Regular season rematches are avoided for the Round of 64, and conference rematches against a team you've played twice are avoided for the Rounds of 64 and 32. Nothing is avoided for the First Four. it could be two teams from the same conference that have already played each other three times and they'd still pair them together.

interesting...never knew that one. I'd rather then just win out and avoid the Dayton Sewage then lol.

[D-West & PO-Z]

What would they do if this was the situation? Tell one of teh teams "sorry" you would have made the playin game but we picked a different team instead and you are not in teh tourney at all?

Or, have one of the teams swithc with an 11 that WASNT going to be in the PIG?

I think they just have to let it be

Well there are 4 teams in this position. For the sake of an awesome game if I were the committee I would purposely match X and UC up. My questions about it wasn't that they would not let one of the teams in and let someone else in, but purposely not match up XU and UC and have them play the other 2 PIG teams.

[X-band '01]

UC v XU in the PIG? I would have to make the drive up for that one.

Now that I think about, since we beat them, just put us in.

UCLA v. Xavier would be an even wilder play-in game. They dug a deeper hole than Xavier did in conference play, but they're finally getting hot at the right time.

[MHettel]

Well there are 4 teams in this position. For the sake of an awesome game if I were the committee I would purposely match X and UC up. My questions about it wasn't that they would not let one of the teams in and let someone else in, but purposely not match up XU and UC and have them play the other 2 PIG teams.

I would hope that the teams that play in the PIG game were TRULY the last 2 at large teams. I would be PISSED OFF if XU was not one of the last 2 at large teams but were forced into the PIG because the ACTAUL last 2 at large teams had already played that year.

[Xville]

I would hope that the teams that play in the PIG game were TRULY the last 2 at large teams. I would be PISSED OFF if XU was not one of the last 2 at large teams but were forced into the PIG because the ACTAUL last 2 at large teams had already played that year.

There are four at large teams that go to the pig round and four from lower conference auto bids…. 8 total.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I would hope that the teams that play in the PIG game were TRULY the last 2 at large teams. I would be PISSED OFF if XU was not one of the last 2 at large teams but were forced into the PIG because the ACTAUL last 2 at large teams had already played that year.

There’s 4 last at large teams that play in Dayton.

[MHettel]

There’s 4 last at large teams that play in Dayton.

Yeah. That’s right. But my point is the same. A team that would otherwise not be in the PIG that was forced to.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Yeah. That’s right. But my point is the same. A team that would otherwise not be in the PIG that was forced to.

What? No, youre point isn’t the same. You must be misunderstanding something.

[Xville]

What? No, youre point isn’t the same. You must be misunderstanding something.

Yeah after reading it again, not sure how with 4 pig teams the point could be the same.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think he’s trying to say that hypothetically x would play uc in the pig just for matchup purposes even if they weren’t one of the last 4 teams in. I’d find that to be pretty far fetched the committee would do that

Oh. That’s not what I was saying. I just meant if X and UC are both one of the last 4 teams in and there’s 2 other teams in, it would be kind of cool for X and UC to play each other but I wonder if the committee wouldn’t want to do that since they already played and would match them each up with the other two last 4 in teams.

[Xville]

Oh. That’s not what I was saying. I just meant if X and UC are both one of the last 4 teams in and there’s 2 other teams in, it would be kind of cool for X and UC to play each other but I wonder if the committee wouldn’t want to do that since they already played and would match them each up with the other two last 4 in teams.

Yeah I edited my response because after reading it again, I wasn’t sure if I was right that’s what he was saying or not lol. Now I’m confused

[MHettel]

What? No, youre point isn’t the same. You must be misunderstanding something.

Yeah I see what you are saying. It would take 3 teams from the same conference for my scenario. Which at this juncture in the Big East cannot be ruled out….

[American X]

Gytis is a nice rebounder (especially ORebs), and his scoring around the rim is OK. but he HAS to shoot better from deep becasue most of his looks are uncontested from the top of the key which is generally the highest percentage 3 to take.

Jack Nunge and Kerem Kanter hitting that shot added a really nice dimension to the offense. It is basically indefensible. It's the extra twist on the knob when you just need a little more.

[HenryMuto]

Hate to break out the "Must win game" today but it really is. I don't think Xavier can afford more than 3 more regular season losses that get them to 18-13 going into BE tournament.

With 2 games left vs Marquette plus games at Butler and at Seton Hall that is potentially 4 more losses (and they still have to win every other game)

So I think this is a must win and then they will need to find some way to win 1 of the 4 I mentioned along with winning the rest.

Worst they can be is 18-13 to have any shot short of maybe making the BE Finals.

The Oakland and Delaware games continue to haunt and will so all the way to Selection Sunday if X don't make it in.

[MHettel]

Hate to break out the "Must win game" today but it really is. I don't think Xavier can afford more than 3 more regular season losses that get them to 18-13 going into BE tournament.

With 2 games left vs Marquette plus games at Butler and at Seton Hall that is potentially 4 more losses (and they still have to win every other game)

So I think this is a must win and then they will need to find some way to win 1 of the 4 I mentioned along with winning the rest.

Worst they can be is 18-13 to have any shot short of maybe making the BE Finals.

The Oakland and Delaware games continue to haunt and will so all the way to Selection Sunday if X don't make it in.

Creighton is not quite a must win game. But if we don’t win it, then that puts us in a must win situation for essentially the rest of the BE schedule

[HenryMuto]

Creighton is not quite a must win game. But if we don’t win it, then that puts us in a must win situation for essentially the rest of the BE schedule

That isn't reasonable though. I was trying to be reasonable. I will stand by the need to be 18-13 at the end of the regular season to have any realistic chance to get in short of making the BE championship game and losing a home game is going to make it that much tougher considering how hard it be to win on the road.

[X-band '01]

All the home games (including Marquette) now become absolute must-wins. Gotta win at Georgetown and really need 2 of 3 on the road against Seton Hall, Marquette and Butler. Running out of quality chances for wins, so now gotta go for quantity.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Frustrating loss but doesn't change we need to finish 18-13 to have a realistic shot. Losing this one just means we can only lose 2 more (less would be better).

[Xavier]

It’s always been get to 18. There’s really only one game left where I don’t think we can win (at Marquette) but I do think we match up better Vs them than we do Uconn or creighton. Home and road are obviously very different. But we have a 20 point win over SH and a 14 pt win over butler. I think we can beat both on the road.

If we win Wednesday I think we’re back on track to 18. If we lose I struggle to see a legit path.

[Xville]

Problem is that to get to 18, have to win 4 of next five. I have been optimistic all season but that seems like a tall order

[Xavier]

It comes down to SH. I would expect them to go 3-1 Vs Gtown/Providence/DePaul and a loss to Marquette.

[bjf123]

Heard Ken Broo and Steve Wolf on WLW this morning. Both think this week’s game at SH is a must win. Said the same about Clifton High and Iowa State this week.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Xville]

Just looked and unfortunately the Hall game isn't a quad 1 anymore. They dropped a ton after the pounding that Nova gave them. Now 76, Gross.

[Xville]

Of the next five games, X will be favored in four of them. If they continue to win the games they should per Kenpom/Vegas (as they have done all conference play), then X will win 4 of the next 5, be 17-12, and playing for everything that last week of the season.

[muskieindent]

I think wednesday is a must win if we want to get an at large bid. SH just got pasted by Nova. Beat them,Providence,Gtown,DePaul and then beat either Butler or Marquette .I'm not feeling to good about this scenario.We are probably going to need at least one win in NYC.

[MHettel]

I still think there is a path for XU to make the dance. All I'm saying is that it's possible....I'm certainly not saying that its likely.

Assume UConn, Marq, & Creighton are in.

Big East Standings and remaining Games

SHU (9-5)- @SJU, BU, @CU, @ UConn, Nova, Depaul

Helps XU with: Wins @ SJU, BU, Nova

XU (7-7)- Prov, @MU, DePaul, @ GT, @ Butler, Marq

X needs to: 4-2 at worst, without losing to DePaul or GT, and beating Marq at least 1x

Butler (7-7)- CU, @Nova, @SHU, SJU, @DePaul, XU

Helps XU with: Beating Nova and SJU. Losing to CU, SHU and XU. Losing at DePaul would be a gift.

Providence (7-7)- DePaul, @XU, @ Marq, Nova, @ Gtown, UConn

Helps XU with: Lose to Marq & UConn. Lose to XU. Take a loss to either GTown or Depaul. Beat Nova

Villanova (6-7)- @Gtown, Butler, @Uconn, GTown, @Prov, @ SHU, CU

Helps XU with- Lose to CU & UConn. Lose to SHU. Lose to Prov. beat Butler.

SJU (6-8)- SHU, @ GT, CU, @ Butler, @ DePaul, Gtown

Helps Xu with- Lose to SHU & CU. Lose to Butler


Bottom line is we want carnage. We need to root for UConn, Creighton, and Marquette against everyone. Root for SHU against the bubble teams. Hope that DePaul or Gtown can scratch out a win or 2 against Prov, Nova, SJU or Butler.

XU HAS to finish 4-2 to have any shot. 11 wins in the league should put us in a nice spot. 10 wins and we need help. 9-11 I think eliminates any BE bubble team.

[Xville]

I have been one of the optimistic ones this season, but unless this team goes at least 5-1 the rest of the way, I don’t see a tourney no matter what other teams do.

I also don’t see this team going 5-1. Things obviously can change in a week and maybe the front court got a wake up call but the hall game was scary how bad it was. There was very little effort that first half which is unsettling for a miller coached team.

[Xavier]

I was one of the optimistic ones as well. (I actually can still see a path to 5-1, but not watching with Hope anymore). Before creighton there was a 66% X would make tournament. It dropped to 55 after the loss. Then dropped to 36 after SH loss.

I’ve always been a proponent of scheduling hard. I still am, ever since I remember nova getting blown out a couple times OOC (to Virginia and maybe houston) and then go on to cruise to a NC I realized the experience of tougher competition is worth it. For high level teams.

All that is to say, I think the schedule really got to this team. We have played 4 games against the top 3 teams. By the end of year it will be 6 against current top 4. Beyond that, every game has been a dog fight to win. A few losses that 1-2 possessions go the other way we win. The team looks beat down. That’s the only explanation for the recent blow outs.

I know my rant doesn’t make sense since we did lose 2 Q3 games, but I think this team could’ve used a few more easier ones OOC

[MHettel]

I was one of the optimistic ones as well. (I actually can still see a path to 5-1, but not watching with Hope anymore). Before creighton there was a 66% X would make tournament. It dropped to 55 after the loss. Then dropped to 36 after SH loss.

I’ve always been a proponent of scheduling hard. I still am, ever since I remember nova getting blown out a couple times OOC (to Virginia and maybe houston) and then go on to cruise to a NC I realized the experience of tougher competition is worth it. For high level teams.

All that is to say, I think the schedule really got to this team. We have played 4 games against the top 3 teams. By the end of year it will be 6 against current top 4. Beyond that, every game has been a dog fight to win. A few losses that 1-2 possessions go the other way we win. The team looks beat down. That’s the only explanation for the recent blow outs.

I know my rant doesn’t make sense since we did lose 2 Q3 games, but I think this team could’ve used a few more easier ones OOC

Like Oakland? And Delaware?

[Jumpin_Jamal_Forever]

Don't think it was the schedule that got us. It was missing legit "4" and "5" position players.

[Xavier]

Free and hunter definitely change the equation. We are 5th in BE with little to no frontcourt production. Shows just how strong the backcourt actually can be.

[paulxu]

And that it's hard to be in the Top 4 without any frontcourt help.

[GoMuskies]

Let's just win the Big East Tournament.

[xukeith]

Worst X season since 1996.

[American X]

Worst X season since 1996.

Did you forget four seasons of Coach Hoodie? Get a grip.

[Xville]

Did you forget four seasons of Coach Hoodie? Get a grip.

No kidding or Mack’s team that went 17-14 when in the a-10.

[MHettel]

Did you forget four seasons of Coach Hoodie? Get a grip.

The Steele coached teams at least were in the discussion leading into the BET. They never got the job done, but at least we played games that mattered in March.

Will have to see how this season ends. Imperative that we finish strong. If we wilt down the stretch, it changes my opinion of Miller.

Easy to win in the A-10 with the talent he had at X. Even easier to win at Zona in the Big 12. Winning with average talent is what separates the great coaches from the rest

[Xavier]

*casually dismissing 3 seed sweet 16 last year. In which, when healthy, beat the NCs twice.

[chico]

Don't think it was the schedule that got us. It was missing legit "4" and "5" position players.

This is right on point. We're talking seed if they were healthy.

[Tim]

The Steele coached teams at least were in the discussion leading into the BET. They never got the job done, but at least we played games that mattered in March.

Will have to see how this season ends. Imperative that we finish strong. If we wilt down the stretch, it changes my opinion of Miller.

Easy to win in the A-10 with the talent he had at X. Even easier to win at Zona in the Big 12. Winning with average talent is what separates the great coaches from the rest
Lots of hysteria lately but this post easily takes the cake.

[MHettel]

Lots of hysteria lately but this post easily takes the cake.

Ok. If you want to see things through the eyes of a fan, then they will look exactly as good as you want it to look. I just prefer to judge what ime actually seeing.

We have been non-competitive against UConn, Creighton and Seton Hall in our last 5 games.

The other were a blowout of a team that has zero confeence wins, and a nailbiter at home to an average rNova team.

We’ve been awful lately. We have a “top” coach. And in my opinion even the worst coaches could have guided this team to the same outcome.

What really triggered me was the early season excuse that we’d struggle at first and then be “gelled” by March.

Well, we aren’t gelled. And we aren’t good. And that was an excuse.

[Xavier]

You just didn’t watch last season, then?

[MHettel]

Yeah. I sure did. That team was pretty loaded and had a ton of experience.

Jonas Hayes won the NIT with basically that roster. Miller added Boum and Dez and made them a better team.

This roste has less talent this year. That doesn’t explain the complete lack of effort against SHU on Wednesday. That is coaching

[Xville]

Yeah. I sure did. That team was pretty loaded and had a ton of experience.

Jonas Hayes won the NIT with basically that roster. Miller added Boum and Dez and made them a better team.

This roste has less talent this year. That doesn’t explain the complete lack of effort against SHU on Wednesday. That is coaching


Questioning miller’s coaching skills is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen on here.

[MHettel]

Questioning miller’s coaching skills is one of the dumbest things I have ever seen on here.

How many times did you repeat yourself by insisting we’d be 12-8 in Big East play. When others were actually evaluating the performance of the team and projecting wins and losses, you would interject - pointlessly- and insist that we’d just miraculously be 12-8.

And then you comment on MY opinion?

Well let me just ask you, how would you grade Miller this year? I fully expect your answer to be full of excuses about Free and Hunter. Which doesn’t explain the absolute quit job that happened against SHU or why it took that crap performance to finally get Nzeh off the bench while Gytis and Lazar seeming have a free pass.

[Xavier]

Yeah. I sure did. That team was pretty loaded and had a ton of experience.

Jonas Hayes won the NIT with basically that roster. Miller added Boum and Dez and made them a better team.

This roste has less talent this year. That doesn’t explain the complete lack of effort against SHU on Wednesday. That is coaching

You questioned his ability to coach in the big East. His first year he took a team that wasn’t good enough to make the tournament and was a 3 seed, sweet 16 team. Finishing 2nd in the big East. From a loaded roster that got Steele fired for not being good enough and a losing record in the big East..

[Xville]

How many times did you repeat yourself by insisting weÂ’d be 12-8 in Big East play. When others were actually evaluating the performance of the team and projecting wins and losses, you would interject - pointlessly- and insist that weÂ’d just miraculously be 12-8.

And then you comment on MY opinion?

Well let me just ask you, how would you grade Miller this year? I fully expect your answer to be full of excuses about Free and Hunter. Which doesnÂ’t explain the absolute quit job that happened against SHU or why it took that crap performance to finally get Nzeh off the bench while Gytis and Lazar seeming have a free pass.

First of all, the year isnÂ’t over so 12-8 still possible and I projected wins and losses just like others so I guess you missed that part.

How many years has miller coached? Is this his first time? He ever been to the tourney before? Maybe he deserves the benefit of the doubt, ya think? You question a coach that just took a team last year to the sweet 16 because they were loaded?? Basically that same roster that got Steele canned?

You can choose to ignore that losing free/hunter are real things that would affect the year I guess if youÂ’d like. You are entitled to ignore the obvious.

As to what miller has done with the talent that is playing, hes done fine. Ten new players, the one back having a completely different role as a soph, three of the newbies being international players, a lot of freshmen that werenÂ’t mcd all Americans.

The growth q has had this year compared to what q was at rice is astronomical on the defensive end, and on rhe offensive end he has career numbers in a huge step up in competition.

Dayvion has probably improved the most throughout the year, I donÂ’t think many would dispute that. that also has millers fingerprints on them.

How about the growth of dailyn?

As far as the frontcourt is concerned, yes it has been disappointing but abou was recruited as a backup, Ciani, djokovic are freshman and Gytis is a first year international big East forward. Maybe nzeh will show something the rest of the season, we shall see. I also disagree that effort is a coaching issue. What the hell is the coach supposed to do? I think we have seen enough of miller to understand his teams have always played hard. You can only yell scream and motivate so much, at some point the players have to actually do it.


I’d love to know all these amazing coaches that win so much with what you think is average talent.

[American X]

We’ve been awful lately. We have a “top” coach. And in my opinion even the worst coaches could have guided this team to the same outcome.

This roste has less talent this year. That doesn’t explain the complete lack of effort against SHU on Wednesday. That is coaching

But, and I am only saying that because I care, there's a lot of decaffeinated brands on the market that are just as tasty as the real thing.

Maybe take several large strides back from the ledge, friend.

https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/3a6010a0-65b0-4150-be6f-9bfd0343d33f
https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/3a6010a0-65b0-4150-be6f-9bfd0343d33f
https://memes.getyarn.io/yarn-clip/3a6010a0-65b0-4150-be6f-9bfd0343d33f

[Xville]

I’ll also add, this will probably go down as Xavier’s toughest schedule ever. That’s no excuse to lose to Oakland and Delaware but x will have played # 1 twice, # 2, #3, and probably 5 or 6. The team simply could just be worn the heck down, especially with the freshman who haven’t been lifting for years.

Still some time left. Let’s go 5-1 and see what happens

[X-band '01]

At least Providence won't come in fatheaded after "only" winning by under 20 against DePaul at home.

If Xavier wants 5-1, they're going to have to beat Marquette at least once - they'll need 2 wins should they not capitalize with a win at Butler in a couple weeks. They certainly can't lose at home again.

[Jumpin_Jamal_Forever]

Ok. If you want to see things through the eyes of a fan, then they will look exactly as good as you want it to look. I just prefer to judge what ime actually seeing.

We have been non-competitive against UConn, Creighton and Seton Hall in our last 5 games.

The other were a blowout of a team that has zero confeence wins, and a nailbiter at home to an average rNova team.

We’ve been awful lately. We have a “top” coach. And in my opinion even the worst coaches could have guided this team to the same outcome.

What really triggered me was the early season excuse that we’d struggle at first and then be “gelled” by March.

Well, we aren’t gelled. And we aren’t good. And that was an excuse.

It appears the frustration of this season has gotten to you a bit. If you think back to last year, there is no doubt that Free and Hunter were different players than the previous season. That's coaching. If you look at the high quality of backcourt players (Souley, McKnight, Olivari) coming in via the portal, that's coaching. And, if you look at our freshman, at least some of them, they seem to be higher quality than under Steele. That also reflects well on Miller. We missed on the Bigs but you have to consider the timeline under which Miller was forced to act. He had to fill holes quickly.

But I don't think you are completely out in left field to question what I'll label as the "internal dynamics" of this team. I too was flummoxed by our performance at Seton Hall and, like you, it seemed, to me, like the team quit. I'll go further. I think our performance against Creighton when you consider the importance of the game, the home crowd support, etc. was, at best, uninspired. At best. How could that have occurred? I do not understand what has happened the last few games but, to me anyway, it seems that something is going on within the team. Perhaps I'm all wet but we have recently performed in the opposite way I expected. I can't explain it. And whatever that is, has caused Sean's prediction of season-end improvement to not occur........at least, yet. None of us succeed all the time but good managers confront problems head on. I think Miller is doing just that.

I don't know what happens from here. However, I believe this off-season will be our most interesting in years.

[Xville]

Some call it an excuse, others call it reality. By it I mean there were ten new players, three internationals, an abundance of freshman and zero upper classmen who had played in the big East. To not think the team would look and be disjointed at the beginning of the season, is just not accepting of reality. With that said, the team hasn’t become what miller and many fans thought they would become as of yet. They have looked good at times and a trainwreck at other times. That doesn’t mean miller suddenly can’t coach or to question his ability. Q has developed, Dayvion has developed, the non euro freshmen have developed. Heck even Ciani has looked better.

Overall, the frontcourt just isn’t up to big East par right now, some of it probably skill, some of it probably youth. It sucks but just the reality. Yet, again to question miller to me is completely off base with all he had to deal with this past offseason with the juggling of roster spots.

[UCGRAD4X]

I will say it again. Young bigs are hard to develop. Having any freshmen in the frontcourt is a huge challenge and disadvantage, especially in the BE. Considering Sean had to go out and pick up players after all of the much better prospects had already been placed. There was a great deal stacked against Xavier this year. I'm not sure I'm ready to say they have done as well as could be expected given the circumstances. Early losses against home buy opponents and the general lack of obvious improvement is troubling and an understandable argument for those who think Miller is not up to the challenge. I just do not agree with that sentiment, mainly because of the obstacles. Maybe he has done as well as could be expected under the circumstances.

[xukeith]

When was the last time you looked at X and said, "We are very good!" ?
This season is quite depressing. That SH game was pathetic. The coaches get the team ready and they all came out flat dead.

SH wanted everything 10x more .

It would be fair to say Hollolway completely outcoached Miller.

Frontcourt is nowhere near BE capable. Even if X had Freemantle, this team would probably be 0.500.

I don't believe X is capable of getting a starting center in transfer portal who could compete night in night out in BE.

24-25 season all depends on how well Ciani, Hunter, Freemantle, Lazar, Swain and Ousmane can improve and be BE ready.

[A Fan]

I agree with the above with a nuance. Sean was out coached by Holloway only in the sense that his team looked like they did not want to be there. Sometimes the team just runs out of gas. The Creighton performance at home was poor. SH was pathetic. Is that on Sean ? I doubt it only because it in no way reflects the ethos of his teams.
As far as giving Sean a pass on not getting a representative Big East front court I would say that if he put his eggs in the Fremantle Recovery Basket and the barrel was empty when he knew Fremantle could not return, that was a mistake. Not many basketball players ever come back from two foot consecutive surgeries requiring plates and screws. And if they do return it is short lived.
My guess is he simply did not have enough money to buy a big out of the portal. MOR tells us he bid on Ike Graham but the Final 2 % did not have the asking price. That may be the case on others.
The Bigs we have may develop in 2024/2025. But I doubt their development will catapault them into even being third string Big East Bigs. Hopefully the Final 2% will be flush with cash.

[Xavier]

When was the last time you looked at X and said, "We are very good!" ?
This season is quite depressing. That SH game was pathetic. The coaches get the team ready and they all came out flat dead.
.

Last year. I never thought this team was very good, and quite the opposite. When houston struggled with us I thought it said more about them than us. I’m shocked they are playing as well as they are.

Every transfer is going to be a gamble. Hell, one of the most coveted transfers (Paul Mulcahy) is averaging 6 points and 3 assists a game at Washington. X wanted him bad. You never really know until they are on the court, so bringing in 10 new guys, after free and hunter were done, I never expected to be very good. Expectations are always to make tournament though and we don’t appear to be doing that.

[xukeith]

Is the hope for 24-25 season all rested in some monster center transfer big man coming and rescuing X from being weak in post next season?

Not too many bigs in transfer portal start for top 40 teams unless a role player (Ousmane) plays off bench. Maybe Miller assures the transfer a ton of minutes available.

Also need a transfer 6'3-6'5 awesome shooter in the Boum and Olivari mold.

[Xavier]

This team was desperate for just serviceable post play. But Zach was a 2nd team All big East player last full season and 15 ppg last year before his injury. He is an absolute stud. If he stays healthy then X will be fine.

Adding a 2nd team all big East forward who averaged 15 ppg to this years team would do wonders. There would be no bubble talk or Sean discussion if he was playing. Not to mention this team has zero players who play with attitude. Freemantle would be a nice addition in that regard, too.

[UCGRAD4X]

I never considered Zach a "stud" - just my opinion - but his lack of defense and strong rebounding put him a tier below. Maybe this year would have been, and, hopefully next year will be, different. The chances of that makes the need for post presence paramount.

[Xville]

Boggles my mind when people think that with Zach and Jerome on the team it barely makes x any better. I mean seriously wtf. That’s 23 points and 12 rbs x is missing in the frontcourt let alone years of big East experience and leadership. Inconsistent o has been an issue… take a look at the kenpom. Free and hunter would have obviously helped.

I also dont know what people expected miller to do when free was supposed to be good to go until he had his third surgery and Jerome has his issue in the middle of summer.

[xukeith]

X missed Colby Jones and Jack Nunge greatly. Zach did so well last season because defenses were spread to cover each of the 5 starters

[UCGRAD4X]

I'm not saying Zach is not good or would not have helped. That seems fairly obvious to me, I just would not consider him a stud.

[Xavier]

I'm not saying Zach is not good or would not have helped. That seems fairly obvious to me, I just would not consider him a stud.

Totally fair. He was just as bad as our current front court defenders. Just forgot he was 2nd team all big East his sophomore year and was on his way to another all big East list last year. But definitely was frustrating defensively.

And by no means do I think X is ok for bigs next year. I have no doubt they will and should look for help there. Unfortunately I’d be pleasantly surprised if we got a full season from Freemantle next year. Big man with multiple issues with his foot isn’t a good recipe

[drudy23]

Boggles my mind when people think that with Zach and Jerome on the team it barely makes x any better. I mean seriously wtf. That’s 23 points and 12 rbs x is missing in the frontcourt let alone years of big East experience and leadership. Inconsistent o has been an issue… take a look at the kenpom. Free and hunter would have obviously helped.

I also dont know what people expected miller to do when free was supposed to be good to go until he had his third surgery and Jerome has his issue in the middle of summer.

This.

[drudy23]

I'm not saying Zach is not good or would not have helped. That seems fairly obvious to me, I just would not consider him a stud.

He would have been an All Big East performer, for sure. Maybe not first team (but maybe), but probably a 2nd teamer. It's an enormous loss for this team.

Jerome was the most important role piece on the team. By far.

The losses together were pretty catastrophic for this team, and they came at a time where you had to punt and hope for the best.

[Xville]

I'm not saying Zach is not good or would not have helped. That seems fairly obvious to me, I just would not consider him a stud.

Absolutely fair and my comments were not directed toward you but some others that have said things previously about them and in this thread. He is/was not a great defender, he was average by the time he stopped playing, but he’s almost an elite level scorer on the offensive end.

[MHettel]

Zach and Jerome would have helped this team. Either of them probably makes this bubble team a tourney team. Both of them probably lead us to a 5-7 seed.

But in fairness neither of them address all of the weaknesses of this team. Hunter is a versatile defender and a hustle guy. Free is a great inside scorer. Neither guy stretches the floor and hence doesn’t address the biggest issue with this team. Shooting was the problem before the roster was constructed. And it still is.

As good as free is on O, he’s just as awful on D. Another issue.

This is a roster issue. Even WiTH the guys that are out, this roster lacks outside shooting and inside d.

[Xavier]

Outside shooting just isn’t a big part of the offensive scheme. We were 291st in attempts last year and still had one of the best offenses in the country. It’s all about movement and bigs being able to create lanes for guards to attack. And when it didn’t work, just throw it to whoever had the mismatch between Free/Nunge. We just don’t have that at all. I think Quincy and McKnigjt are almost perfect fits for what the offense wants to do. It’s just….really hard to see it with incapable bigs.

[Xville]

Expectations are to make the dance every year of course but in looking at the BE standings and the schedules of the teams that are right around X, it looks to me that if X can get to 11-9, they will end up in 5th. Top half of the Big East in a down year, I'll take it. Have to win Wednesday though in order for that to happen. If X loses to Providence, looking at a Wednesday start in the tournament, and anywhere from a 6-9 seed depending on tie breakers.

[drudy23]

Zach and Jerome would have helped this team. Either of them probably makes this bubble team a tourney team. Both of them probably lead us to a 5-7 seed.

But in fairness neither of them address all of the weaknesses of this team. Hunter is a versatile defender and a hustle guy. Free is a great inside scorer. Neither guy stretches the floor and hence doesn’t address the biggest issue with this team. Shooting was the problem before the roster was constructed. And it still is.

As good as free is on O, he’s just as awful on D. Another issue.

This is a roster issue. Even WiTH the guys that are out, this roster lacks outside shooting and inside d.

Not sure I agree entirely. I think the biggest gap in this roster is in the paint. Quincy gives you firepower from 3, as does Trey. I wish Claude was a bigger threat for sure, but even McKnight has shot the ball very well the last month. These guards are more than capable of putting this team in the Dance with a better frontcourt.

[MHettel]

Not sure I agree entirely. I think the biggest gap in this roster is in the paint. Quincy gives you firepower from 3, as does Trey. I wish Claude was a bigger threat for sure, but even McKnight has shot the ball very well the last month. These guards are more than capable of putting this team in the Dance with a better frontcourt.

You don’t think that teams would just double Fremantle once he gets the ball in the post? Force his to kick it out and then we just hope that Q is the guy left open? With this team you have to guard Q on the perimeter and the drive, defend against Dez on the drive and then in theory defend against Free in the post. That’s really it.

Compare that to last year when Boum was similar to Q, Kunkel was a threat from outside and could get to the rack. Colby was versatile offensively including from deep. The Nunge 3 ball stretched the defense, and then you had Free focused in the paint. Plus All those guys could pass.

McKnight is a good passer. on this team and Q &Dez are decent. The rest….?

You don’t need to take 25 three attempts a game to have your outside shooting impact the outcome

[drudy23]

You don’t think that teams would just double Fremantle once he gets the ball in the post? Force his to kick it out and then we just hope that Q is the guy left open? With this team you have to guard Q on the perimeter and the drive, defend against Dez on the drive and then in theory defend against Free in the post. That’s really it.

Compare that to last year when Boum was similar to Q, Kunkel was a threat from outside and could get to the rack. Colby was versatile offensively including from deep. The Nunge 3 ball stretched the defense, and then you had Free focused in the paint. Plus All those guys could pass.

McKnight is a good passer. on this team and Q &Dez are decent. The rest….?

You don’t need to take 25 three attempts a game to have your outside shooting impact the outcome

Better than current state where our bigs can be guarded 1:1 with absolutely no fear of them having games that will beat you.

A good big being doubled would open up things for multiple players, assuming there's proper recognition and execution. Claude, McKnight and Swain could get to the rim more freely, Q would get more looks on rotations, Trey would as well.

That doesn't even account for Jerome doing the dirty work. He's a more than capable finisher in the paint on weak side cuts and putbacks. It would help him as well. We saw it last year.

I agree that more 3's doesn't equal better. This offense really doesn't rely on a ton of 3's when it's humming.

[MHettel]

quick detour back to the original point of this thread....

This last weekend, Creighton did their part by beating Butler, who is now 7-8.

SHU beat SJU sending the Johnies to 6-9 and on the brink of .500 at best in conference. Although SJU has 3 remaining games against GT and DePaul.

Upcoming (meaningful) games this week include:

Butler @ Nova- Go Butler.

SJU @ GT- This would be amazing if it was 1985.

Nova @ UConn- go Huskies

Butler @ SHU- Go SHU.

Creighton @ SJU- go Blue Jays

Of course XU has 2 games this week. At home against PC, and then a road game at Marquette. Honestly, if things play out how I hope for above, and if we could somehow win both of our games, we are suddenly a game or 2 ahead of the pack in the BE, looking to find a way to scrap into the dance.

Huuuuuge week.

[MHettel]

Current ESPN bubble watch lists 34 teams fighting for 22 at-large spots.

XU not listed among the 34.

Major work ahead. Starts tonight

[drudy23]

Current ESPN bubble watch lists 34 teams fighting for 22 at-large spots.

XU not listed among the 34.

Major work ahead. Starts tonight

I think that ship has sailed.

Hoping for a MSG miracle at this point. We need that first round bye.

[GoMuskies]

I think that ship has sailed.

Hoping for a MSG miracle at this point. We need that first round bye.

If we went 2-0 this week, we'd be right back in the thick of the bubble talk. But the idea of Xavier winning at Marquette seems...far-fetched.

[MHettel]

If we went 2-0 this week, we'd be right back in the thick of the bubble talk. But the idea of Xavier winning at Marquette seems...far-fetched.

@Marquette is the only game we could afford to lose.

Last 2 games for us are @Butler, and home against Marquette. It is not insane to believe that those 2 games could get us the momentum we need to get a bid. Win one in the BET after that, and I'd say we are probably in. Again, only assuming one more loss (@Marquette) between now and then,

[GoMuskies]

I think we'd better beat Marquette if we want anyone to get anyone's attention.

[atljar]

I think we'd better beat Marquette if we want anyone to get anyone's attention.

Twice

[XUMIOH12]

Only chance at an at large bid is to go 5-1 rest of the regular season (or 6-0 of course lol). Doesn't matter which of the 5 they win at this point either.

[MHettel]

Only chance at an at large bid is to go 5-1 rest of the regular season (or 6-0 of course lol). Doesn't matter which of the 5 they win at this point either.

well. . Losing to GT would be a problem. But if that means beating Marquette 2x, then MAYBE.

[X-band '01]

Losing to DePaul would be catastrophically bad.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

How about tonight, can this thread die after my post?

[GoMuskies]

Hey, if we finish 5-0 we'll be right there on the Bubble!

[D-West & PO-Z]

Worst season since 2013? Even in Steele era we weren't out of the tourney until March.

At least we have Miller this time, I trust him moving forward.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

Worst season since 2013? Even in Steele era we weren't out of the tourney until March.

At least we have Miller this time, I trust him moving forward.

Posts in the Miller thread. Simon Charles on twitter posted Miller to OSH is a done deal. No idea if it’s legit, but he posted it was more sure than Cooley going to Georgetown.

Good lord, account looks like a parody account. I hope so

[XUBob]

It is a fake account.

[MHettel]

Ok, i can feel the the eye rolls already....BUT we are still alive.

Butler, Nova and St. Johns all lost last night.

SHU is doing their part and getting that separation into the #4 spot that we need. We have 5 games left with a shot to finish 12-8 and a path to the #5 spot in the standings.

if you break our games down., we have 2 games that we absolutely should win. 1 difficult road game at Butler (senior night and they may be fighting for a bid), and of course 2 brutal games vs marquette. We must win them all. Starts today. Could end today as well, but what the hell we've gone on some scorching runs before....

[X-band '01]

Umm, St. John's is leading Creighton right now.

[drudy23]

The Miracle @ MSG starts with getting to the 5 seed.

[X-band '01]

Creighton always seems to have stage fright at MSG. Getting the #6 seed with them as a 3 might not be the worst thing in the world, either.

[MHettel]

Umm, St. John's is leading Creighton right now.

One too many cocktails last night? Must be

[Xville]

We can close this thread and put it out to pasture now

[MHettel]

We can close this thread and put it out to pasture now

There is still almost 8 minutes left and we are only losing by 23. And you are giving up on these guys?

They seem to be fighting for their lives. Ok never mind.

[HenryMuto]

No team has ever had 16 losses and got an at large bid so this means Xavier has to win out to get to 17-14 and rack up a few more wins in the BE tournament to have any shot. If they lose another regular season game history says 0% chance to get at large bid.

[bjf123]

I think we already have a 0% chance of an at large bid.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[X-band '01]

Butler's chances of an at-large also near zero now.

[Xville]

Just win the next two (won’t be easy) and assure a .500 big East record and that’ll be good enough for me at this point. The hall and 2nd creighton game ended any chance of an at large.

If des is out any time x may not win another game.

[JTG]

Just win the next two (won’t be easy) and assure a .500 big East record and that’ll be good enough for me at this point. The hall and 2nd creighton game ended any chance of an at large.

If des is out any time x may not win another game.

Not saying I don't want Des back, but sometimes I think everyone stands around waiting for him to make a play. Granted it was DePaul, but they did fine last night when he got hurt. Maybe without him everyone plays harder and smarter knowing he's not there to help bail them out.

[bobbiemcgee]

I think we already have a 0% chance of an at large bid.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Butler's chances of an at-large also near zero now.

Win the BE tournament? Stranger things have happened.

[bjf123]

Win the BE tournament? Stranger things have happened.

Then it wouldn’t be an at large bid. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[MHettel]

Bloodbath in the Big East right now. All these bubble teams keep beating each other. Only 3 BE teams squarely in the dance right now, with SHU and Providence penciled into the first four. Providence is getting waxed by Nova today, and Nova may sneak into a better position that their current situation just off the bubble. SHU plays UConn tomorrow and likely faces a loss and bumps them off the bubble.

SJU still has some life. Butler and XU are out of it. X can’t even play spoiler at this point.

Nova plays SHU soon. That’s an elimination game. If Nova wins that they still need to play Creighton. If SHU wins, they get a gimme in DePaul to end the year.

Providence still has a game against UConn.

SJU only has DePaul and GTown left and could finish 11-9, 19-12. Could they sneak in?

Not a good year for the BE. I’d say there is actually a chance that the BE gets only 4 teams in. I think 5 teams is pretty likely. 6 seems like a long shot. The challenge becomes if one of the bubble teams steals the auto bid, it probably just knocks a different BE team off the bubble.

[fellahmuskie]

We can still get 5th place if we win out and Nova loses last two and Providence goes 1-1.

But we probably would rather get the 6th seed for a better path to the championship game.

I know it's ridiculous to play this out, but I can't help it.

[Xavier]

I think there’s like a 5% chance if X won out till the big East championship with wins over Marquette/Uconn/Creighton then they might get a play in game opportunity. But better chance they catch some crazy run ala gtown a few years ago and win the tournament

[MHettel]

I really don’t see any realistic way to make the dance. Quincy and Dayvion are playing really well right now. Can’t expect more from them.

Maybe Claude catches fire from outside and we just ride him for 2 weeks?

Maybe Nzeh just clicks somehow and our interior D and rebounding just skyrockets?

Or maybe Gytis catches fire?

Longshots, all

[JTG]

We're pretty much destined to play Butler the next 2 Wednesdays. A 5 against 8 game @ Hinkle and then at MSG for the right to get bludgeoned by UConn.

[HenryMuto]

So if Xavier wins out until the Big East finals then loses to UCONN do they get a bid ?

[OTRMUSKIE]

20-15 will at least make it worth watching selection Sunday. It would be PIG best case. But we at least get to enjoy another game . Had we lost this one it would have been deflating.

[muskiefan82]

20-15 will at least make it worth watching selection Sunday. It would be PIG best case. But we at least get to enjoy another game . Had we lost this one it would have been deflating.

No one wants to be the only team other than DePaul to lose to Georgetown this year. We made it way too infesting in both games, but thank Claude he saved that effort for tonight.

[Xville]

Nova win at home is now a quad 1.

With a 2-0 week (highly unlikely but we can dream) x would have 5 quad 1 wins, one of the buy game losses dropped to a quad 4 though yikes.

[paulxu]

Oakland and Delaware will haunt this season.
Good thing they were at home...saved us from watching a court storming on TV.

[MHettel]

BE bubble is now down to 4 teams according to ESPN, all with “work to do”. Nova and SHU play each other still. And I think one of those teams also still plays Creighton. SJU I think l has the easiest schedule yet.

6 bids seems unlikely. 4 or 5 is probably 50/50 at this point. Not a banner year for the BE, and we’ve done our part towards that end….

[Xavier]

In thinking of the actual tournament though, I don’t think anyone outside the top 3 can do anything. Said all year I thought X could compete with everyone but the big 3….but that’s bc I didn’t think anyone else was worth while either. Having said that, I could see the top 3 all competing for a F4 spot.

[MHettel]

Yeah, we need to show up in the dance. Nova and UConn have carried the load for us. Generally speaking the rest of the BE (X included) has performed below their seeding. Critical to stay near the top as a conference as the realignment and NIL and Portal impacts are final.

TV money at stake as well….

[Xavier]

I don’t lose any sleep over how BE performs in tournament. If Uconn repeats I’ll use it to maybe brag on conference to UC buddies but I’d rather they lose early. I’d like to see creighton and Marquette do well though

[D-West & PO-Z]

Bloodbath in the Big East right now. All these bubble teams keep beating each other. Only 3 BE teams squarely in the dance right now, with SHU and Providence penciled into the first four. Providence is getting waxed by Nova today, and Nova may sneak into a better position that their current situation just off the bubble. SHU plays UConn tomorrow and likely faces a loss and bumps them off the bubble.

SJU still has some life. Butler and XU are out of it. X can’t even play spoiler at this point.

Nova plays SHU soon. That’s an elimination game. If Nova wins that they still need to play Creighton. If SHU wins, they get a gimme in DePaul to end the year.

Providence still has a game against UConn.

SJU only has DePaul and GTown left and could finish 11-9, 19-12. Could they sneak in?

Not a good year for the BE. I’d say there is actually a chance that the BE gets only 4 teams in. I think 5 teams is pretty likely. 6 seems like a long shot. The challenge becomes if one of the bubble teams steals the auto bid, it probably just knocks a different BE team off the bubble.

Nova is 26 in the NET and has 4 quad 1 wins. They beat Seton Hall and they on the road and they are probably close to a lock.

[MHettel]

Nova is 26 in the NET and has 4 quad 1 wins. They beat Seton Hall and they on the road and they are probably close to a lock.

As of today, ESPN has them as one of 32 teams on the bubble fighting for 17 spots. 10 of those teams are characterized as “should be in”, and 22 of those teams, and including Nova, is in the “work to do” category. They are by no means a lock. I’m fact, if you assume the “should be in teams” all make it that leaves 7 bids for the 22 “work to do” teams….before any conference tourney upsets

I think 2 out of 4 of SHU, PC, SJU, and Nova will make it. It’s a coin toss right now. Could very well come don’t to the BET, especially if these teams go head to head

My guess is SJU and Nova end up in with either / or / both in Dayton….

[webxu]

How different would we be feeling right now if we had found a way to beat mighty Oakland and The Blue Hens.. throw in the Washington game and either Nova on the road or Providence at home and we would be talking seeding right now.. UW, NOVA, Prov all could have gone either way..

[Xville]

How different would we be feeling right now if we had found a way to beat mighty Oakland and The Blue Hens.. throw in the Washington game and either Nova on the road or Providence at home and we would be talking seeding right now.. UW, NOVA, Prov all could have gone either way..

ugh. just don't lose the two buy games and at the least X is competing for Dayton the next two weeks like the rest of the big east middle. Heck go 2-0 this week, grab the 6 or 7 seed and crazier stuff has happened.

[Xavier]

See Kolak is ruled out for the game, too. There’s a decent chance we will be one game away from the tournament. I’d bet we’d be in for sure had we won those buy games.

[D-West & PO-Z]

As of today, ESPN has them as one of 32 teams on the bubble fighting for 17 spots. 10 of those teams are characterized as “should be in”, and 22 of those teams, and including Nova, is in the “work to do” category. They are by no means a lock. I’m fact, if you assume the “should be in teams” all make it that leaves 7 bids for the 22 “work to do” teams….before any conference tourney upsets

I think 2 out of 4 of SHU, PC, SJU, and Nova will make it. It’s a coin toss right now. Could very well come don’t to the BET, especially if these teams go head to head

My guess is SJU and Nova end up in with either / or / both in Dayton….

ESPN's write-up on Nova (who they have leading the pack for BE bubble teams):

"In most cases, a "First four out" team like Villanova winning a road game by 11 over a bubbly opponent like Providence would be viewed as pivotal -- if not decisive. It was indeed a highly significant win for the Wildcats, and the metrics will look terrific for Kyle Neptune's group coming off this victory. (The NET ranking already looked fine, and this will boost Nova's previously tepid résumé ratings.) The only thing: Villanova still has a road game at Seton Hall and a home date with Creighton. Even with the Wildcats playing their best ball of the season, two losses there are conceivable. One win, on the other hand, could be pivotal -- if not decisive."

They seem to think, as do I, that Nova wins one of the last 2 (both Quad 1 opportunities) that could just about wrap it up for Nova's tourney bid.

No one with a top 32 NET ranking has ever not made the tournament.

Only 3 teams in the 30's have ever not made it.

Of course Nova could lose the next 2 and we are talking a different story, but if they split this week, they should be on pretty solid ground.

[Xville]

I wonder if X goes 2-0 this week, if they will be in the next four out conversation at least. If they do go 2-0, their profile will be pretty similar to nova in a lot of ways.

They will have the same number of quad 1 wins, Nova will actually have 3 bad losses as opposed to x having 2. Nova would have one game up on X in the win column. Nova's cpu numbers are a lot better right now. Maybe X's would jump significantly with two wins this week.

Not predicting anything but maybe 5 more wins gets them in....

[muskiefan82]

I wonder if X goes 2-0 this week, if they will be in the next four out conversation at least. If they do go 2-0, their profile will be pretty similar to nova in a lot of ways.

They will have the same number of quad 1 wins, Nova will actually have 3 bad losses as opposed to x having 2. Nova would have one game up on X in the win column. Nova's cpu numbers are a lot better right now. Maybe X's would jump significantly with two wins this week.

Not predicting anything but maybe 5 more wins gets them in....

6 more does for sure. LOL

[MHettel]

ESPN's write-up on Nova (who they have leading the pack for BE bubble teams):

"In most cases, a "First four out" team like Villanova winning a road game by 11 over a bubbly opponent like Providence would be viewed as pivotal -- if not decisive. It was indeed a highly significant win for the Wildcats, and the metrics will look terrific for Kyle Neptune's group coming off this victory. (The NET ranking already looked fine, and this will boost Nova's previously tepid résumé ratings.) The only thing: Villanova still has a road game at Seton Hall and a home date with Creighton. Even with the Wildcats playing their best ball of the season, two losses there are conceivable. One win, on the other hand, could be pivotal -- if not decisive."

They seem to think, as do I, that Nova wins one of the last 2 (both Quad 1 opportunities) that could just about wrap it up for Nova's tourney bid.

No one with a top 32 NET ranking has ever not made the tournament.

Only 3 teams in the 30's have ever not made it.

Of course Nova could lose the next 2 and we are talking a different story, but if they split this week, they should be on pretty solid ground.

Well, you referred to them as a lock. Which means that not matter what happens, they are in, which I disagree with and so does that ESPN write up.

I agree with the write up. I think they will end up in, but they still have to get an additional win before the BET, and possibly more

[D-West & PO-Z]

Well, you referred to them as a lock. Which means that not matter what happens, they are in, which I disagree with and so does that ESPN write up.

I agree with the write up. I think they will end up in, but they still have to get an additional win before the BET, and possibly more

Your reading comprehension is awful.

I said if they win on the road at Seton Hall they are probably close to a lock.

Key words, "if", "probably", "close".

So yeah, if you agree with the write up you would agree with my original post you were disagreeing with.

Glad we are on the same page, lol.

[MHettel]

Your reading comprehension is awful.

I said if they win on the road at Seton Hall they are probably close to a lock.

Key words, "if", "probably", "close".

So yeah, if you agree with the write up you would agree with my original post you were disagreeing with.

Glad we are on the same page, lol.

Yeah. You said “They beat Seton Hall…”. And I didn’t read that as “IF they beat Seton Hall”. And I got confused because they just DID beat Providence who is basically neck and neck with both of them.

But in the end, I don’t think they are a current lock, and I don’t think beating SHU will make them a lock. But I do think they have a good chance of being team 4 from the BE.

[Xville]

Anyone know what seed x would get if St. John’s, nova and x are all 11-9 at the end of this week? Who wins that tiebreaker?

[D-West & PO-Z]

Anyone know what seed x would get if St. John’s, nova and x are all 11-9 at the end of this week? Who wins that tiebreaker?

St. Johns would be ahead of us and we would be ahead of Nova based on the round robin records between the 3.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Anyone know what seed x would get if St. John’s, nova and x are all 11-9 at the end of this week? Who wins that tiebreaker?

We'd should be the 6 seed in this scenario. Playing DePaul with Marquette next. That would be a dream scenario given Kolek's uncertain status.

[Xville]

St. Johns would be ahead of us and we would be ahead of Nova based on the round robin records between the 3.

Nice thanks! Couldn’t really ask for better really. A 6 playing what could be a hobbled Marquette I’ll take all day

[OTRMUSKIE]

We couldn’t beat Delaware or the Oakland Athletics at Home. Marquette would need other key injuries for us to beat them. I still rather play a hobbled Marquette then a healthy one

[MHettel]

We couldn’t beat Delaware or the Oakland Athletics at Home. Marquette would need other key injuries for us to beat them. I still rather play a hobbled Marquette then a healthy one

Well, maybe playing desperate is what we need. On senior night no less.

[Xville]

As of today, Bracketmatrix has 6 BE teams in with Providence in last four out. Lunardi has 5 BE teams in...I think when all is said and done that's probably right. I'm guessing 4 solidly in, 1 going to Dayton.

If X goes 2-0 this week (tall task even with Kolek out), I think X will literally be 1 regular season win short of being in. Sucks!

[MHettel]

As of today, Bracketmatrix has 6 BE teams in with Providence in last four out. Lunardi has 5 BE teams in...I think when all is said and done that's probably right. I'm guessing 4 solidly in, 1 going to Dayton.

If X goes 2-0 this week (tall task even with Kolek out), I think X will literally be 1 regular season win short of being in. Sucks!

Somewhere, Travis Steele is eating cake

[drudy23]

Somewhere, Travis Steele is eating cake

Man, this cake's just gotta be better.

[atljar]

Man, this cake's just gotta be better.
Same cake, different flavor
Miami is 15-14
Xavier is 15-14

[Xavier]

I thought I saw it could be miami first winning record in like 10 years. He was the king of being 1 or 2 games short of missing the tournament. Thank God.

[Xville]

Saw Rothstein tweet out that Richmond and South Florida are in most brackets right now, but it is due to them being in first in their respective conferences. If they don't win their tourney, they are both probably out.

I thought he was crazy but after looking at their respective numbers, I think he's right. Two more spots open up if Dayton, FAU win their tourneys.

Current BE teams Chances via Team Rankings:

UCONN
Marquette
Creighton

Nova 90%
Hall 83%
Johnnies 70%

So six teams as of today. Xavier is 12%....so you're telling me there is a chance lol.

[muskiefan82]

I thought I saw it could be miami first winning record in like 10 years. He was the king of being 1 or 2 games short of missing the tournament. Thank God.

And then Miami went out and lost at home to Toledo 97-63 shooting 8/31 from 3.

[drudy23]

And then Miami went out and lost at home to Toledo 97-63 shooting 8/31 from 3.

Just gotta be better, man!

[Xville]

And then Miami went out and lost at home to Toledo 97-63 shooting 8/31 from 3.

Thats the Steele coached teams we all know and love.

[X-band '01]

And then Miami went out and lost at home to Toledo 97-63 shooting 8/31 from 3.

Toledo was up something like 60-23 at one point.

[Xville]

Looks like hall is about to punch their ticket unless for some reason they forfeit against DePaul

[MHettel]

Looks like hall is about to punch their ticket unless for some reason they forfeit against DePaul

Yeah at the expense of Nova. I think Nova still plays UConn. They are the definition of “bubble” right now.

[Xville]

Yeah at the expense of Nova. I think Nova still plays UConn. They are the definition of “bubble” right now.

They play creighton at home. I think they win that one.

[MHettel]

There are 5 games left, but the conference season is practically over. I find this Big East season to be fascinating.

There are 3 groups of teams.

Georgetown and DePaul suck. They played each other twice and have 2 wins combined to show for it. I won’t be discussing these teams further.

UConn, Marquette, and Creighton occupy the top tier. Beside the 6 games they played against each other, (still one to go) they only lost 8 additional games between them. So they went 40-8 against the rest of the conference. Back out GT and DePaul, and that’s 28-8 (78%).

Then you have the 6 teams in the middle tier. Butler, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s, nova and xu. These teams (obviously) won 8 games against the top tier. In 15 head to head opportunities, these teams split 10 times.

Xavier was the only one of these 6 teams to not beat a top tier team. Xavier was also the only team that split with every othe team in the middle tier.

Xavier’s performance this year in the BE is best summed up as “average”. An average team in a normally good league that has parity in the middle.

I still dread the possibility that this is a 4 bid league. Having 6 of 11 teams so clumped I the middle of the conference is not great for the collective. I’d rather have another GTown and each of those remaining 5 teams pick us another 8-9 wins.

[MHettel]

In case you were wondering. I realize that Xu Plays Marquette still. I went ahead and took the liberty….

[Xville]

It’s more likely the conference ends up with 6 than 4 if you look at any bracketology or team rankings

[MHettel]

It’s more likely the conference ends up with 6 than 4 if you look at any bracketology or team rankings

Sure, whatever. The reality is that we will know soon enough.

Nova lost to SHU yesterday and now probably must win against Creighton. Providence plays UConn. SJU and SHU play meaningless games against GT and DePaul.

My guess is SHU is currently team #4. Barring a huge upset, I don’t see how we get to 6. 5 maybe. These teams will be beating each other up in the BET. Winning against another bubble team is good, but not decisive.

[Xville]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

This is the best site available from a bracketology perspective. It’s about as accurate as they come as it aggregates all the best bracktologists out there. 5 will be the floor barring any one of the bubble teams losing to DePaul or gtown.

[GoMuskies]

That site just reminds me how bad you have to be to not manage to scrape your way into the NCAA Tournament as a power conference team.

[Xville]

That site just reminds me how bad you have to be to not manage to scrape your way into the NCAA Tournament as a power conference team.

True. All x had to do was win 18 this year. Pretty damn easy even with the tough games in the non-con.

[Xavier]

That site just reminds me how bad you have to be to not manage to scrape your way into the NCAA Tournament as a power conference team.

I know. It’s why I always say if you’re an average team/program it’s almost hard to miss the tournament from a power conference.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Sure, whatever. The reality is that we will know soon enough.

Nova lost to SHU yesterday and now probably must win against Creighton. Providence plays UConn. SJU and SHU play meaningless games against GT and DePaul.

My guess is SHU is currently team #4. Barring a huge upset, I don’t see how we get to 6. 5 maybe. These teams will be beating each other up in the BET. Winning against another bubble team is good, but not decisive.

I am not sure how losing to Creighton would effect Nova's NET ranking (would guess not much) but they are currently #29 in the NET. If they remained there and did not make the tournament they would be the only team ever to not make it with a top 30 NET.

They should beat Creighton if they want to be confident though. They are at home.

[MHettel]

I am not sure how losing to Creighton would effect Nova's NET ranking (would guess not much) but they are currently #29 in the NET. If they remained there and did not make the tournament they would be the only team ever to not make it with a top 30 NET.

They should beat Creighton if they want to be confident though. They are at home.

If Nova loses, they will be 17-14 overall and probably in 6th place in the BE. 4-8 in away games. And 2-4 vs top 25 teams.

I realize the Net matters. And of course people say that the conference standings DONT matter. But Nova has a very weak resume with some clunker losses as well.

If they lose to Creighton and drop their first BET game, it almost certainly puts them on the outside.

[paulxu]

You wanna be on the outside looking in?
Lose to Oakland and Delaware...at home...and pay them to beat you.

[MHettel]

They play creighton at home. I think they win that one.

Your predictions this year have been….off.

[MHettel]

Your predictions this year have been….off.

Total carnage in the BET. Nova gets an extra life by beating DePaul at the last second yesterday. SHU, who looked safe just lost to SJU who looked like they needed that win. Providence desperately needed a win against Creighton and got it.

What if Nova beats Marquette later tonight? Pretty much all the teams that needed to help themselves have. And some will still miss out.

SHU still probably ahead of the pack? SJU, then Nova, then Providence? Elimination games tomorrow?

[Xavier]

It will be an interesting case study on how the committee views conference tournaments, for sure.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Total carnage in the BET. Nova gets an extra life by beating DePaul at the last second yesterday. SHU, who looked safe just lost to SJU who looked like they needed that win. Providence desperately needed a win against Creighton and got it.

What if Nova beats Marquette later tonight? Pretty much all the teams that needed to help themselves have. And some will still miss out.

SHU still probably ahead of the pack? SJU, then Nova, then Providence? Elimination games tomorrow?

If Nova wins I think it is more likely that the Big East gets 7 teams than 5.

Best guess, BE gets 6 teams in.

Talk about predictions being off, are you coming off the ledge about the status of the Big East in terms of tourney teams?

[D-West & PO-Z]

It will be an interesting case study on how the committee views conference tournaments, for sure.

Good point. If Providence gets in without winning the BE tourney I don't ever want anyone telling me the conference tourneys don't matter except for minor seeding adjustments.

I'm trying to figure out why Seton Hall is considered in and not Providence though. Seton Hall is 2 spots higher in the NET (X is actually in-between them) and both have 5 Q 1 wins. SH has one more Q2 win but that doesnt seem that important. SH has a Q3 loss while Providence has no bad losses.

I don't know. 5 seems like a lock at this point given what has transpired. 6 is realistic and 7 does not seem out of the question.

UD losing the A10 tourney though hurts all bubble teams.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Nova has gone from inside the top 30 to (probably) outside the top 40 tomorrow. They needed this win, don't think they are in. Giant game for Neptune, changes the conversation on him a lot following Jay Wright.

Likely down to 6 from the BE with a chance but all 6 have a pretty good chance.

[MHettel]

Hard to say what the committee will do. 5 for sure? Maybe 6? This could not have gone closer to the wire.

[XProf]

The impact on Xavier in the NIT is pretty interesting. After the top 3, we rank 4th in NET behind St. Johns, Villanova, and Providence but ahead of Seton Hall, Butler, and the others. St. John's is in nearly every bracket and after last night Villanova is pretty much out. So, the only way we get left out of the NIT is if Seton Hall gets selected but not Providence or if only four get selected (leaving both Seton Hall and Providence out). So we should be rooting for Providence to win over Marquette. fyi the NIT, starting this year, grants two automatic bids to the top NET ranking Big East teams that don't make the NCAA and even gives a home game to those qualifiers. So, Cintas would host a game next week!