Xavier Basketball: 0 to 60 Months

[xudash]

Firstly, we know what we know:

1. N I L. I think we believe it will evolve.

2. The Portal. It has created and continues to create a lot of movement and therefore roster management issues.

3. Coaching. We have Sean Miller back, and it appears that he'll stick around for a long while.

4. Program. Absent outside forces, our program has never been in a stronger position; Cintas Center capital projects have been fabulous.

5. Conference. The Big East is setting itself up for long-term prestige; the new media agreement is key.

Now, take the above 5 factors and add any that you deem appropriate, then provide your opinion on where you see college basketball in 5 years and where you see Xavier University in particular within that space.

I'm not trying to create a new thread for the sake of creating a new thread. It's the off-season. We've all been trained to think critically. Let's have a little "fun" putting all the variables into the noggin and come out with some visualizations of where we might be down the road.

Have at it.

[Uncle Joe]

As one national pundit recently tweeted, the BE had one helluva a March: UConn champions / 3 S16s / Rick Pitino / major help on the way for G-town.

Thank God we have Sean Miller to keep XU in the top 3rd+ of the BE.

Having said that, I think NIL could potentially be a major detriment to college hoops. I think if it appears that the sport (and college Fball) is pay for play, it will damage the "reputation" of the sport. I'm basing this off my own feelings, and others on this board who have expressed similar thoughts. If the rumor that Krissa went to WVU for $500K is true, it only reinforces that perception. I'm hoping that the NCAA (or whoever) will formulate some rules that will prevent money from ruling where players go to school, while still allowing them to benefit from their successes on the court/field. What that will look like is beyond my pay grade.

[MHettel]

Because of 1 & 2, I can envision the entire strategy for roster construction changing.

Teams that have little NIL money will focus on HS players and hope they come in and can give the team 2 years of productivity. If the player is really good, and the current team can’t pull together any scratch, then that player hits the portal looking for the NIL payday.

Teams that have access to big NIL money can almost forego the grind of recruiting HS players for 1 plus years and just go crazy each year in free agency (aka the portal).

It’s a GRIND to recruit HS guys and how many just turn out to be misses? At least with a transfer you know that the kid can play at the level.

Further, I think (most of the) HS players will shift to a strategy of picking a school where they think/know they can get some early PT and increase their portal value in a couple years. Sitting the bench is NOT good for NIL value. You gotta play.

I also think rotations will get a little deeper and pace could increase. Teams with deep NIL pockets can “buy” depth and coaches will need to demonstrate that they are willing to go 8+ deep and players will adapt to 30 minutes being the high end of PT. Players will be rested, healthy and not worried about fouls.

I also think guys will stick around more often as opposed to leaving early. The sure fire NBA guys won’t be swayed, but the G League and Europe guys can stay and get paid and earn that diploma.

Due to all of this, I expect the average age of rosters to shift towards “older” for the NIL teams and younger for the “poor” teams.

But yeah, other that that, just like it’s always been

[xukeith]

More turnover of rosters. More transfers. Rarely will there be a 4-5 year player at one program.
I suspect more changes will come to attempt to regulate NIL. Not sure if that is a good or bad thing.
Less one and done players. More athletes will stay (not at 1 program but stay in multiple colleges) and get paid and have great health benefits.

[XUGRAD80]

NIL…..it will certainly evolve as time goes on, both in support of it and in the regulations regarding it. It’s going to take the courts and the NCAA to come to agreements as to how much regulation is going to be allowed. It may well take the Congress to enact new laws. College athletics is a HUGE business in the US. There is going to be a lot of lobbying from different parties to Congress, asking for their help to formulate regulations that will withstand legal challenges. As another said, there has to be a compromise solution made that allows the athletes to be fairly compensated for their NIL, that protects the kids from being taken advantage of, and still keeps it from becoming a pay for play situation where only the biggest and richest are competing with each other. I believe that it is in the best interest of the colleges, and the NCAA, to make sure that more than just a very few schools dominate year after year. I think that they have to do all that they can to make sure that the NIL doesn’t create a situation where only the biggest and richest will survive.


Portal….will it become complete free agency, where anyone can transfer at any time? Will a one-time only transfer rule stand up in the courts? I really don’t know at this point how this is going to play out. I do know that I support the right of athletes to transfer. I especially think that the rule should be changed so that if the head coach leaves that the players should automatically then be allowed to transfer freely too, even if they transferred once before. But as a coach, I’d be wary of the player that transfers more than once. I’d wonder how much of a “team” player they are and how much of an “I” person they are. The schools need to have some stability here too. It will not be good for the schools if they have to rebuild their rosters every year. Some stability will be good for them and for fan interest too.

Coaching…..I’m very happy that Miller is back, hopefully for a long long time. But never say never.

Program….if one and two become completely unregulated and out of control, can X compete successfully? Will they even want to try and do so? X is still just a very SMALL school. It really can’t afford to try and compete financially with schools that have much more money and much larger alumni bases. It would be suicide to try and do so. The program is in great shape right now. Fan interest is at an all-time high. But if they find themselves unable to compete successfully with others, will it remain so?

Conference…the BE needs to remember who they are and why they exist, and not forget it. They are an EASTERN BASKETBALL league. They fill a NICHE. Trying to compete with the big football dominated conferences by extending their footprint westward is not a good idea. Possibly bringing in more EASTERN schools that have BB as their bell cow, is where they should be concentrating their expansion interest (if they have any interest in expansion at all). But even then, they should only consider schools that have shown the ability and the interest to support the programs in all ways….financially, fan interest, facilities, staffs, etc……at the level of the best current members. Don’t bring in new schools just to get bigger. Only bring in new schools if they have something to offer and will be competitive with the rest of the league.

[paulxu]

When you see the amount of money well-to-do people pour into football programs, it's often mind-boggling. Close by Clemson is a perfect example.
Thousands spent by boosters just for parking pass spots, luxury suites, etc. and donations directly to the program for massive bricks and mortar projects.

If those fat cats will spend $500K for one player to go to WVa for what might be one year...I wonder if this sort of spending won't wane over time.
Especially if the player is an incoming freshman...and then transfers the very next year.
The football people get some tangible benefit yearly, and money to the school stays at home to build things. But money to the kids is fleeting.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think the NIL related fears of only a few select, elite schools being able to compete is misguided. I think that was how things were already. I think NIL has allowed and will allow more schools to compete, not less. Which schools can capitalize remains to be seen, but I hope X is one of them. I think NIL opens up the opportunity to professional level caliber (non-NBA level) players to stay longer and could create more continuity in some cases. See Jack Nunge as an example if he returns. Pre NIL, no shot.

Someone made a reference to fearing that college basketball (or college sports in general) would turn into the MLB where only a select few teams can win. I'd argue college sports were already worse in that regard than the MLB and the opposite result is more likely.

In the last 25 years 15 different franchises have won a World Series. In the last 25 years 13 different schools won the NCAA tournament. I think that number doesn't get worse, and has a chance at getting better.

I think some more regulations to the portal and probably NIL are coming in some form or fashion and is probably warranted and will likely help to some degree.

[Xville]

I do wonder… will the money begin drying up after a few years for the fat cats? I mean throwing in a million here and there every year has to hurt the pocketbook at some point. I know there are a ton of rich people especially in areas of Miami, left coast, northeast but it’s not like owning a sports team when you have money coming in. Maybe I’m completely wrong

[D-West & PO-Z]

I do wonder… will the money begin drying up after a few years for the fat cats? I mean throwing in a million here and there every year has to hurt the pocketbook at some point. I know there are a ton of rich people especially in areas of Miami, left coast, northeast but it’s not like owning a sports team when you have money coming in. Maybe I’m completely wrong

I think the collectives that get just every fan donations will become a bigger source down the line.

But yeah, I would love to know who the money is coming from now. Individuals? Businesses? Collectives?

Like I heard some fairly big figures rumored for current X players. Where did that come from? The Xavier collective seems fairly new. How much does the trading cards and shirts with their names generate? Colby did a turbo tax ad I believe, wonder how much that was?

[JTG]

Speaking of NIL monies. I heard Iu & Purdue players TJD and Edey got $900k each.
Also has it occurred to anyone else that maybe Huggs helped with the $500k just to put it to X, since we've won every meeting with him since he left Clifton?

[drudy23]

Also has it occurred to anyone else that maybe Huggs helped with the $500k just to put it to X, since we've won every meeting with him since he left Clifton?

No.

[Xville]

Speaking of NIL monies. I heard Iu & Purdue players TJD and Edey got $900k each.
Also has it occurred to anyone else that maybe Huggs helped with the $500k just to put it to X, since we've won every meeting with him since he left Clifton?

If true that ended up being a colossal waste of money for tjd and edey

[Xavier]

Depends. Obviously based solely off the tournament- yes. But 900K for the national player of the year, being a top 5 team most of the year while winning your conference and a 1 seed? I think you’d see a ton of people sign up for that. I’d imagine the value to the university is more than 900K.

But it’s certainly more difficult to buy a championship in bball with the one and done structure. So it becomes interesting what people are willing to pay for…..at one point I thought the randomness of the tournament would cause the NIL to even out more but I’m not so sure anymore.

[sirthought]

It's ultimately going to ruin college sports for a long time. The comparison to MLB is a good one. And that sport is dying from a national interest level.

Teams need continuity to build skill sets for players and identity for fans. Fat cats need pride in the results they pay for. These do not mix.

Players will be focused on their financial success at too young of age versus educating themselves and getting better, while still being a kid.

This is a total mess.

[Strange Brew]

I think the collectives that get just every fan donations will become a bigger source down the line.

But yeah, I would love to know who the money is coming from now. Individuals? Businesses? Collectives?

Like I heard some fairly big figures rumored for current X players. Where did that come from? The Xavier collective seems fairly new. How much does the trading cards and shirts with their names generate? Colby did a turbo tax ad I believe, wonder how much that was?

I would imagine TT paid Colby which is what the NIL was designed to allow. Also, jersey, cards, etc sales.

We’ll see either way how the “direct payments” pan out.

[MHettel]

It's ultimately going to ruin college sports for a long time. The comparison to MLB is a good one. And that sport is dying from a national interest level.

Teams need continuity to build skill sets for players and identity for fans. Fat cats need pride in the results they pay for. These do not mix.

Players will be focused on their financial success at too young of age versus educating themselves and getting better, while still being a kid.

This is a total mess.

Winner!

[xudash]

A lot of great insights put into this so far.

I've edited this to clean it up. The focus is still on our best guesses, given what we know and presume what might develop, for what Xavier basketball will look like 36 to 60 months down the road.

We are dealing with NIL and collectives, primarily, as I believe we have the other key elements of the program under firm control.

In fact, Xavier's national rep continues to build and will only get stronger with Miller at the helm. And the Cintas Center truly is one of the great on campus venues in the nation.

A key element - conference affiliation - couldn't be much stronger in our case. In fact, as a couple of recent articles have clearly noted, the conference has never been stronger since its reboot, and it is actually poised for preeminence moving into the next decade. Yes, things can go haywire, but there is nothing to indicate that is possible at this time.

We all know a key piece here is the next media agreement - the "market" will have its say. We can only hope that the conference's current resume and Val and Company find a way to get it done. Imagine Xavier doubling or doubling+ its intake from the media deal, while the conference manages to continue to chalk up about 10 Units of NCAAT goodness each season.

This is an important point: if the media agreement moves towards $7mm - $8mm in payouts per school per year, and we continue to chalk up strong performances in the NCAAT, then direct pay capability, if it comes about, will be a strength for Xavier, as I see it. Take one of the incremental million dollars and fund the payroll account for basketball. This would be a good time to point out that I'm not in favor of wrecking "amatuer sports" at the collegiate level. I'm only focusing on our relative positioning should certain events occur. This is one time it pays not to have to feed a stadium with 100,000 seats in it.


So, we're back to these relatively new two external factors: NIL and Collectives. Here is where it is important to point out a point that was made on this board earlier: some people may give to a school, but they may give to their specific area only and not opt to provide additional funding to such things as athletic collectives or NIL deals for athletes. That is a key point to keep in mind. Individual contributors have their limits. And some, who otherwise may not be all that limited, may simply be philosophically opposed to contribute to a collective or pursue a NIL deal for an athlete if they are otherwise in position to do so.

In either case, when looked at from the vantage point of competition, there is some general bad news and general good news:

- Bad News: "P5 Land Grant" universities that have large alumni bases and greater NIL reach + their media deals.
- Good News: Those same schools have football and more athletes in general to cover.

I used Ohio State as an example. Let's agree that the school represents the high-end of college athletics. It has an alumni base of 500,000, according to its alumni website. All alumni are considered members of the association upon graduation. This includes individuals who have earned associate's, bachelor's, graduate, professional, or honorary degrees from Ohio State, as well as medical resident graduates of the university. Alumni who give any amount to support any area of Ohio State are recognized as alumni donors. Alumni who commit to a monthly gift of at least $10 or an annual gift of $150 or more are recognized as life donors.

By comparison, the UC Alumni Association counts 332,000 alumni across the United States and throughout the world. Probably all schools/divisions of the university, similar to Ohio State.

The thing to keep in mind with both of those aggregate totals is that most of the giving probably comes from the bachelor degree crowd - 4 years, immersed in the culture, football, etc.

BTW, Xavier counts 76,000 alumni in its network.

Some Data on Alumni Giving Rates

Now let's check some data:

The average alumni giving rate during the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 academic years was 8%, according to data that 1,451 ranked colleges reported to U.S. News in an annual survey.

But some schools reported much higher numbers, with the 10 colleges at the top seeing two-year average alumni giving rates of 44% and higher. If you look at the Top 25 US Universities With The Most Powerful Alumni Networks, you'll mostly find the upper echelon academically; it isn't comprised of a list of a bunch of land grant universities out of the P5 that focus on football, with a few notable exceptions.

Public University Giving: Alumni giving accounts for approximately 23% of annual funds raised by U.S. universities (Council for Advancement and Support of Education). Other funds come from foundations (33%), non-alumni individuals (17%), corporations (13%), and other organizations (14%). Note: probably need to keep that non-alumni crowd in mind (e.g. the ND "subway" fans).

Key insight: In 2021, total giving to U.S. universities grew from $49.5 billion to $52.9 billion, a 5.1 percent increase after adjusting for inflation (Inside Higher Ed). While this is certainly good news, it’s worth noting that the rate of alumni who choose to donate is not seeing a proportional increase. Rather, this increase is the result of larger gifts from a few wealthy philanthropists, and not necessarily smaller gifts from a large body of donors.

In fact, the average alumni giving rate during the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 academic years was 8% (U.S. News). That means that 92% of alums aren’t making regular financial gifts to their alma maters.

Back to the Ohio State as an Example for Collectives Potential

This is an effort to swag some numbers for a collective:

500,000* alumni x 8% x $50.00** = $2,000,000. Now, let's remember that they take football very seriously in Columbus.

* - Used the entire alumni base to keep it conservative.
** - On top of the $150.00 to qualify as a "Life Member" (I AM swagging here!).

Ohio State on the NIL side:

A total of 220 student-athletes have engaged in 608 reported NIL activities with a total compensation value of $2.98 million. All three figures rank No. 1 nationally, according to Opendorse, the cutting edge services company hired by Ohio State to help its student-athletes with education and resource opportunities to maximize their NIL earning potential.

https://footballscoop.com/news/ohio-state-nil-earnings


So, Where Do We Possibly Stand

We've been told that we're "okay" or "reasonably competitive" when it comes to our NIL sources. I hope so. We primarily have MBB and a few other key athletes to feed, but at least we don't have an entire D1A football team to "fund."

What could Xavier's collectives effort end up looking like:

76,000* alumni x 12% x $100.00** = $900,000.

* - Full number for consistency.
** - I'll assume we're a little more well healed across the board.

We can't fight what Miami did. We can't go toe-to-toe with the SEC and B1G schools, in particular. We can't go toe-to-toe with a number of the other "P5's" as well. But it doesn't look like we're going to get boxed out over the next 12 to 24 months as the NIL mess, in particular, sorts itself out (I hope).

If it does go full-on pay-for-play, I sense that we'll be very well positioned, so long as we get good news on the media agreement and the NCAAT Units keep pouring in. BTW, I'm not saying we'll get aggressive in the area. I just want us to have the capability - the option - to pull the trigger where and when needed, if at all.

The wet blanket over all of this is the piercing of the amatuer vail. The rah-rah, "go college!" aspect is dissolving right before our eyes. Any kid who comes to Xavier, contributes to our basketball success, earns his degree, and actually does that over 4 years should get a statue out front, because we aren't going to have to worry about doing that very often.

I believe we're going to be okay after having to navigate a rocky road. I hope and trust Sean has enough fuel in the tank to power through all this as he continues to do what he fundamentally loves to do at the place he loves to do it. We have to be ready for change. I think we're set up well to handle it.

[noteggs]

That’s interesting on your wife’s school. My wife has a similar attitude towards UDump, as she is grad. Our oldest daughter had a very pathetic scholarship offer to attend. Mrs Eggs has a very bad taste towards her former school. She will not give them another dime.

Ironically, she told me the other day we should give more to X? What? Of course I always listen to my wife! Wink wink…

[MHettel]

I find it insane that in spite of the insane cost to attend college, we collectively somehow also just GIVE 8B a year to universities?

By the way, if everything goes as planned after my tech company finishes its IPO, I will probably be in a position to give about $5M a year to the NIL fund.

Unfortunately, I don’t actually have a company…..YET. Or an idea for a company….YET. But otherwise, I’m on track.

[xudash]

That’s interesting on your wife’s school. My wife has a similar attitude towards UDump, as she is grad. Our oldest daughter had a very pathetic scholarship offer to attend. Mrs Eggs has a very bad taste towards her former school. She will not give them another dime.

Ironically, she told me the other day we should give more to X? What? Of course I always listen to my wife! Wink wink…

I enjoyed reading this. Thank you.

Poor VD

[xu82]

I find it insane that in spite of the insane cost to attend college, we collectively somehow also just GIVE 8B a year to universities?

By the way, if everything goes as planned after my tech company finishes its IPO, I will probably be in a position to give about $5M a year to the NIL fund.

Unfortunately, I don’t actually have a company…..YET. Or an idea for a company….YET. But otherwise, I’m on track.

In light of all that, do you mind if I wait to start kissing up?

[MHettel]

In light of all that, do you mind if I wait to start kissing up?

Yeah, for sure! I mean this is working out!

[X-band '01]

I find it insane that in spite of the insane cost to attend college, we collectively somehow also just GIVE 8B a year to universities?

By the way, if everything goes as planned after my tech company finishes its IPO, I will probably be in a position to give about $5M a year to the NIL fund.

Unfortunately, I don’t actually have a company…..YET. Or an idea for a company….YET. But otherwise, I’m on track.

Careful now, Final4 will think you're trying to 1-up the esteemed MOR.

[xudash]

Careful now, Final4 will think you're trying to 1-up the esteemed MOR.

Now that you dusted this thread off a little, it would be a good time to point out what Quincy had to say in his reveal video - about making long-term decisions for his career over possible short-term bumps available from NIL sources other than whatever he landed from Xavier.

While it would be naive to think that money will not be a major factor in a lot of the decisions made about a new school via the portal, it was refreshing to see, at least in his case, that he put a number of important criteria into the mix for him and came away with a decision in favor of X.

As we all know, Quincy whittled his choices down to Auburn, Miami, Texas and X. We landed him. That's a pretty big statement.

According to reports, Ousmane considered Alabama, Arkansas, Louisville, Ole Miss, Florida, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and talked to Syracuse, Seton Hall, LSU, Rhode Island, Virginia, Providence and DePaul. Hard to say what levels of interest those schools had, but he was considering them.

Xavier + Sean Miller + Big East is a nice PROGRAM TRIPLE THREAT.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Now that you dusted this thread off a little, it would be a good time to point out what Quincy had to say in his reveal video - about making long-term decisions for his career over possible short-term bumps available from NIL sources other than whatever he landed from Xavier.

While it would be naive to think that money will not be a major factor in a lot of the decisions made about a new school via the portal, it was refreshing to see, at least in his case, that he put a number of important criteria into the mix for him and came away with a decision in favor of X.

As we all know, Quincy whittled his choices down to Auburn, Miami, Texas and X. We landed him. That's a pretty big statement.

According to reports, Ousmane considered Alabama, Arkansas, Louisville, Ole Miss, Florida, Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech and talked to Syracuse, Seton Hall, LSU, Rhode Island, Virginia, Providence and DePaul. Hard to say what levels of interest those schools had, but he was considering them.

Xavier + Sean Miller + Big East is a nice PROGRAM TRIPLE THREAT.

Yeah I mean the assumption that every guy was always only going to go where he could get tons of money and not consider other factors was always a little blown out of proportion. Will some players do that? Yes. Many? Yes. Majority? I don't think so, but we know at least many won't or we wouldn't be getting the quality of transfers we are getting.

Just like adults in the real world consider many factors when accepting a new job. Money is one factor. The biggest one for some. The only one for some. But for most, it is more nuanced than that.