KenPom 2022-23

[GoMuskies]

Xavier currently checks in at a respectable #32 in KenPom. 15th in adjusted offense but 82nd in adjusted defense.

Gonzaga is #9 (#1 on offense), Indiana is #11 and Dook #20.

[X-band '01]

How long before they take off the training wheels from last season into the rankings?

[D-West & PO-Z]

How long before they take off the training wheels from last season into the rankings?

Good question. It always seems like way too long but I don't know the answer.

[Three Point Pete]

Baylor will tumble from #2 adj offense thanks to the Warr, err-- Golden Beagles!

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[American X]

It is safe to day our offense is elite at #10. I thought the defense would pop after WVU, but it is still at #81.

[xubrew]

How long before they take off the training wheels from last season into the rankings?

Tenth game. Or is it the 12th now?? He changes it a little bit every year, and sometimes throughout the year.

[xubrew]

Good question. It always seems like way too long but I don't know the answer.

Keep in mind that it’s a predictive metric, not a merit based one. One of the variables early in the season is overall basketball budget. He wants to make sure there’s enough data to more accurately predict win probability before he completely takes away the preseason/early season variables.

[American X]

As of today, UConn is the only team in the top ten in both offense and defense.

[drudy23]

As of today, UConn is the only team in the top ten in both offense and defense.

We might get a chance at #1 on NYE if some things fall right.

[American X]

Xavier's win streak moved them up to #18 in KenPom (https://kenpom.com/) and #17 is...Creighton! Marquette is #15 with very similar numbers to Xavier.

[xukeith]

X now 12th in AP and 11th in Coaches' poll

[XU-PA]

X now 12th in AP and 11th in Coaches' poll

How long has it been since we've been at this level??

[GoMuskies]

How long has it been since we've been at this level??

Immediately prior to the Travis Steele regime.

[American X]

Per KenPom, Xavier has the 7th most efficient offense in the country (amazing!), but Marquette has the 2nd (yikes!). The defenses are 90th and 83rd, respectively (double yikes!). Xavier plays at the 16th fastest tempo and Marquette the 67th. Get ready for fireworks on Sunday.

[muskiefan82]

Loyola Marymount memories playing in my head now....

[paulxu]

I may have undershot the pick-the-score.
Maybe it's time for the Miller defense to show up in full form and hold them to a reasonable number.

[SkyWalker]

I thought of the Loyola Marymount games during the first half of the Creighton game. What a pace! Expecting more.

[Xavier]

Wasn’t MOR begging for Loyola coach a couple years ago? Have no idea how he’s doing at Oklahoma but he’s also the type that needs time to get his players and build his system

[muskiefan82]

Latest Bracketology has X as a 5 playing that oh so dangerous 12 seed......yep.....you guessed it......Dayton. LOL

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[GoMuskies]

ESPN has us as a three seed. I prefer ESPN!

[smileyy]

ESPN has us as a three seed. I prefer ESPN!

That feels like a fairly big overseed to me. I hate being overseeded.

[Smails]

That feels like a fairly big overseed to me. I hate being overseeded.

Not so sure that's an overseed right now...I don't know that there are 12 teams better than X at this point in the season

[D-West & PO-Z]

That feels like a fairly big overseed to me. I hate being overseeded.

Not based on the numbers right now it isn't. Not sure we will end up there, but fair seeding as it stands now.

[SkyWalker]

I saw one bracketology last week (forget the source) that had us playing Charleston. I thought that was interesting. Dayton and Ohio State are easy to match up with us, but Charleston. That connection digging pretty deep.

[GIMMFD]

Not so sure that's an overseed right now...I don't know that there are 12 teams better than X at this point in the season

It's been more and more wide open of a tournament lately and it's definitely looking that way again this year, I haven't gotten to catch as much ball as I have wanted but from my understanding it seems like there's really no cut throat elite team this year that looks unbeatable. Though the world would be such a weird place if Kelvin Sampson wins a natty at Houston.

[Three Point Pete]

Graphic during Marquette game compared Xavier offense from last year to this year.
Assists 58th 1st
FG% 108th 3rd
3pt% 258th 2nd
EffectiveFG% 149th 10th
Is there another team with a similar improvement?

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[drudy23]

Graphic during Marquette game compared Xavier offense from last year to this year.
Assists 58th 1st
FG% 108th 3rd
3pt% 258th 2nd
EffectiveFG% 149th 10th
Is there another team with a similar improvement?

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Stats like these just make me continue to shake my head about the previous regime. What a night and day difference with mostly the same guys.

[muskiefan82]

Graphic during Marquette game compared Xavier offense from last year to this year.
Assists 58th 1st
FG% 108th 3rd
3pt% 258th 2nd
EffectiveFG% 149th 10th
Is there another team with a similar improvement?

Sent from my SM-A326U using Tapatalk


Stats like these just make me continue to shake my head about the previous regime. What a night and day difference with mostly the same guys.

Don't take f'ed up shots.

[Xavier]

Stats like these just make me continue to shake my head about the previous regime. What a night and day difference with mostly the same guys.

It certainly wouldn’t have made a huge difference- but probably enough to make the tournament. People are really underestimating the Scruggs to boum upgrade. At the moment Boum is the favorite to win big East POY and be an All American. Admittedly, the system is playing a bigger part in the difference in offensive numbers but while it’s mostly the same team- you’re adding an all American PG to it.

[drudy23]

It certainly wouldn’t have made a huge difference- but probably enough to make the tournament. People are really underestimating the Scruggs to boum upgrade. At the moment Boum is the favorite to win big East POY and be an All American. Admittedly, the system is playing a bigger part in the difference in offensive numbers but while it’s mostly the same team- you’re adding an all American PG to it.

Agree about his impact - but you don't make that much of jump in statistical rankings through just one guy. It takes vast improvement from many to improve that much over one season.

[xavierj]

The biggest difference is the ball doesn’t stop. Paul played point guard and he wasn’t a point guard so the ball stopped a lot. He would over dribble too with the only plan in site was to get his shot and others would stand and watch. When Souley has the ball he has a plan and the ball doesn’t stop, which puts guys in better position to score. It also helps Souley knows how to score and gets his shot off quicker.

So there is coaching that has helped, the style has helped and adding a great guard has really helped. Paul needed a guy like Souley and he would have been much better off. Oh and Paul needed a guy like Sean as well. I feel bad for Paul.

[GoMuskies]

Nate Johnson was pretty great for us last year, too. So it wasn't JUST a trade of Scruggs for Boum.

[xavierj]

Nate Johnson was pretty great for us last year, too. So it wasn't JUST a trade of Scruggs for Boum.

Correct and Nate would have been really good with this years team as well.

[Tim]

Agree about his impact - but you don't make that much of jump in statistical rankings through just one guy. It takes vast improvement from many to improve that much over one season.

Actually you do. It's just that the one guy isn't a player.

[XUBison]

Don't take f'ed up shots.

Sean’s version of “Good shot, better shot, best shot.”

[MHettel]

Hate to say it, but Scruggs did preside over the lowest point of XU basketball in about 40 years. It may have been coincidental, but Scruggs last game was ALSO Steele's last game. We went on a hot streak and won the NIT right after. Would we have won it without Steele while still having Paul? Would we have won it without Paul while still having Steele?

Now, in Paul's defense, I dont think he EVER played the right position. I though his best role on the team would be as a SMALL 3. Great ballhandler and defensively versatile for that position. But as a 2, he wasnt a good enough shooter / scorer, and as a PG he didnt have the handles and PG mindset. Alternatively, Paul would have been one hell of a sixth man on any former XU teams. He would have played starter minutes and moved around offensively and defensively.

Also, Nate was a very good shooter. But a "catch and shoot" guy only. If he was open and the ball was deliverd to him he was deadly. Getting open was a challenge against good teams, and creating his own shot or driving just wasnt in his game.

[D-West & PO-Z]

There isn't a doubt in my mind Scruggs did more for Xavier in terms of winning games than Travis Steele ever did as a head coach. The issue was never Scruggs, it was always Steele. Scruggs had shortcomings, most players do, but he single handedly won many games for Xavier in his last 2 years. OSU game comes to mind first.

Scruggs first year was Mack's last, his next 2 were Naji's team (who Steele also didn't know how to coach and maximize) and his last 2 years it was his team with no favors from Steele's coaching. Miller would have maximized Scruggs' abilities and potential.

[Three Point Pete]

Sean’s version of “Good shot, better shot, best shot.”Agreed. Sean has been a good influence on Free. Rafferty's comments on Zach: When he is on top of his game, Xavier is a different team, everything is in synch. Free is taking and making more difficult mid-range shots i(n addition to his rim work) not just chucking bricks at inopportune times.


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[Backyard Champ]

Count me in with the Scruggs wasn’t the issue team. I think Scruggs did everything he could to win games. I think we would have won the NIT with Scruggs as well.

This is 100 percent a coaching issue. Boum does help a lot, but no doubt he would have been used in an awful way with Steele. In fact, under Miller I believe every player is better. That’s crazy to think about.

[Xville]

Tin Man just lost to Northern Illinois...Miami was 5 or 6 point favorites at just lost to a 5-12 team. Miami is now 7-11 but 3 of those wins were against D2 schools or worse. After seeing the difference in the players this year from last year, I am convinced it was zero about the players and 100% on that guy. I'm sure he's nice, but he doesn't belong anywhere near a D1 head basketball coach position.

Can you imagine what the 18-19 team would have done with Miller or anyone competent in the head chair? With Steele they were 19-16 with Naji, Scruggs, Jones, Hanky Mcspanky, and Goodin before he lost it (probably again due to Steele.) With Miller that team is probably a top 5-6 seed in the tourney.

[Masterofreality]

God works in mysterious ways.
My last straw with Steele was, after Naji Marshall made an incredible 3 point play vs Butler in a must win game with 8 seconds left, Steele had zero back court pressure or PRESENCE, even and let Kamar Baldwin sashay up the court to his preferred spot with a guy already settting a screen, and drill a 3 pointer on Senior night. Add, blowing two BE Tourney games vs Butler as well.
Those things HAD to happen for the Saviour to return.
Oh the Rapture!!!

[WCWIII]

Have to give Steele credit for his recruiting abilities including most of this year's team.

Interesting that last year's "giving players freedom to play" ended up the opposite of the intended effect of keeping the players loose and free-flowing.

[Xville]

Have to give Steele credit for his recruiting abilities including most of this year's team.

Interesting that last year's "giving players freedom to play" ended up the opposite of the intended effect of keeping the players loose and free-flowing.

I wonder if we give him too much credit in this area? I don't know the averages of "impact players" across the college landscape but in terms of Freshman recruits during his year as head coach, it seems pretty lackluster to me.

From 18-22 here were his recruits:

Kennedy
James
KyKy
Bishop
Free
Ramsey
Miles
Odom
Wilcher
Jones
Edwards
Tucker
Craft
Claude

Jones and Free of course great recruiting wins, and Claude seems like he is going to be a good one as well but outside of that? Is 3 out of 14, good? Including Odom and Wilcher means hitting on 5 out of 14...is that about normal on average? I honestly don't know...maybe that's about right.

I will say he did well on the transfer market with Nunge, Kunkel and Johnson and heck even Hunter. (Doubt we would be saying that about Hunter if Tin Man was still the coach.)


I did take a gander at UCONN during the same time period and Hurley hit on 7 of 14 freshman---8 if you count Akok who is a good role player for Gtown.

So maybe, hitting 50% is really good and Steele did ok, he just couldn't coach or develop most of them.

[paulxu]

I'm just enjoying watching more this season. Not as much hero ball. Actual off ball movement going on all the time, instead of just standing around the perimeter.
Hope that continues.

[X-band '01]

God works in mysterious ways.
My last straw with Steele was, after Naji Marshall made an incredible 3 point play vs Butler in a must win game with 8 seconds left, Steele had zero back court pressure or PRESENCE, even and let Kamar Baldwin sashay up the court to his preferred spot with a guy already settting a screen, and drill a 3 pointer on Senior night. Add, blowing two BE Tourney games vs Butler as well.
Those things HAD to happen for the Saviour to return.
Oh the Rapture!!!

That was the game that gave Xavier its first losing conference record since 1981-82. Did not want to rehash that nightmare.

But fortunately the last 4 years of hell are gone.

[Caveat]

There isn't a doubt in my mind Scruggs did more for Xavier in terms of winning games than Travis Steele ever did as a head coach. The issue was never Scruggs, it was always Steele. Scruggs had shortcomings, most players do, but he single handedly won many games for Xavier in his last 2 years. OSU game comes to mind first.

Scruggs first year was Mack's last, his next 2 were Naji's team (who Steele also didn't know how to coach and maximize) and his last 2 years it was his team with no favors from Steele's coaching. Miller would have maximized Scruggs' abilities and potential.

Miller is teaching the game to these guys at a higher level than simply "We run this set when we get this look..."

It's actually a ton of fun to watch because you can see the guards communicating with one another to run individual 2/3 man games to create open looks or passing lanes to the post.

[nuts4xu]

I wonder if we give him too much credit in this area? I don't know the averages of "impact players" across the college landscape but in terms of Freshman recruits during his year as head coach, it seems pretty lackluster to me.

From 18-22 here were his recruits:

Kennedy
James
KyKy
Bishop
Free
Ramsey
Miles
Odom
Wilcher
Jones
Edwards
Tucker
Craft
Claude

If we are giving credit for Steele's recruiting, you have to include guys like Trevon Blueitt and others Steele recruited under Mack.

I am not trying to get in the way of your point, and have my own strong opinions on the incompetence of Travis Steele. But he was highly regarded as an assistant and on the recruiting trail.

[xukeith]

If we are giving credit for Steele's recruiting, you have to include guys like Trevon Blueitt and others Steele recruited under Mack.

I am not trying to get in the way of your point, and have my own strong opinions on the incompetence of Travis Steele. But he was highly regarded as an assistant and on the recruiting trail.

Very good at delivering recruits.

[American X]

Our defensive rating ticked back under 100 to 99!

[Wheelhouse]

If we are giving credit for Steele's recruiting, you have to include guys like Trevon Blueitt and others Steele recruited under Mack.

I am not trying to get in the way of your point, and have my own strong opinions on the incompetence of Travis Steele. But he was highly regarded as an assistant and on the recruiting trail.

Totally agree with this. Steele was a great recruiter for Xavier for about 15 years and a horrific head coach for them for 4 years.

[GoMuskies]

Our defensive rating moved up to #81 after tonight. Was in triple digits until recently.

[zanesxu]

Our defensive rating moved up to #81 after tonight. Was in triple digits until recently.

Five straight under seventy allowed. Six of the last nine games, too.

Love kenpom, but man are their ratings weighted for winning big. This win did more for our kenpom than any other… including UConn on the road.

[profson]

Five straight under seventy allowed. Six of the last nine games, too.

Love kenpom, but man are their ratings weighted for winning big. This win did more for our kenpom than any other… including UConn on the road.

You don’t move by winning big, if you were projected to win big. You move up if you win big when you were projected to lose or win a squeaker as occurred here.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Our defensive rating moved up to #81 after tonight. Was in triple digits until recently.

Just noticed this. #77 today. So jumped 30 some odd spots last couple games/weeks.

Despite losing some games in that stretch out KenPom and T-rank are both 18 which I think is the highest they have been all season.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Five straight under seventy allowed. Six of the last nine games, too.

Love kenpom, but man are their ratings weighted for winning big. This win did more for our kenpom than any other… including UConn on the road.


You don’t move by winning big, if you were projected to win big. You move up if you win big when you were projected to lose or win a squeaker as occurred here.

I don't have a great understanding of these ratings, so I could be wrong, but I understood our moving up in the rankings more to do with our defensive ratings improving than our winning margin. We have continued to move up in the overall ratings despite losing because even in some of these losses our defense has been vastly improved.

It seems to me the rising in the ratings has been directly related to our vastly improved defensive efficiency rating.

[Olsingledigit]

I don't have a great understanding of these ratings, so I could be wrong, but I understood our moving up in the rankings more to do with our defensive ratings improving than our winning margin. We have continued to move up in the overall ratings despite losing because even in some of these losses our defense has been vastly improved.

It seems to me the rising in the ratings has been directly related to our vastly improved defensive efficiency rating.

I think it also has to do with what other teams we played do. We moved up one today which I attribute to Indiana beating Purdue.

[HenryMuto]

#16 overall
#7 offense
#81 defense
#234 luck

[American X]

After the performance against Creighton, Xavier has the 3rd most efficient offense (https://kenpom.com/)in the country (and up to 80th best defense!). Marquette at 6 & 63. Overall, Musketeers at 14 and Warriors at 12 (and Blue Jays at 13).

[drudy23]

The Big East plays an exciting brand of basketball. Not only an emphasis on offense, but good and efficient offense.

The coaches in this league are very good. You need a damn good coach to keep up.