NCAA Transformation Committee Discusses Expanding The Tournament

[xubrew]

So the transformation committee is talking about expanding all D1 championships to include 25% of the eligible teams.

This would mean a 96 team men's and women's basketball tournament.

And a 96 team volleyball tournament and women’s soccer tournament.

And an 80 team baseball and softball tournament

And a 33 (not 32) team FCS football tournament.


Okay, so before I get into the endless list of reasons as to why I hate all of this, just from a financial perspective, the added expenses to doing this would be enormous. Men’s basketball is the only championship that actually makes any real money. And the reason it makes money is the TV deal.

Let’s call this what it would actually be. It’s an expansion of the First Four. It’s creating 32 First Four games instead of just the 4 that CBS/Turner probably don’t like paying for, but pay for anyway because it’s just four. Everyone who thinks that doing this will result in a lot more money are just assuming that networks will want to pay a lot more money for more First Four games. They won’t. Even I’m smart enough to know that.

I don't think most people, including those in high levels of college athletics, appreciate the college basketball regular season. They all love the NCAA Tournament. Their thinking is that if a 68 team tournament is great, then a 96 team tournament would be even better. But, it won't be. I love how the regular season plays into the NCAA Tournament. I think it makes it exciting right out of the gate, and while I think some modifications should be made to the regular season to make it even better and to give more teams better opportunities at building good resumes, expanding the field to 96 would water it down to the point of being WAAAAY less exciting than what it currently is.

As far as more tournament games, the data is already in on that. Even most people who are big college basketball fans only passively watch the First Four, if they watch it at all. The networks know this. They're not going to pay $100 million more for more First Four games. If you prorate it, that's how much more they'd have to pay for each unit to be the same amount of money it's worth now in a 96 team format. There's no way CBS or any other network would increase the contract by half a billion for more pre-Round of 64 games.

So, they say this is all about money. And they're right. And that's ultimately why I don't think this will happen. Once they realize (assuming they do) just how much more it will cost to pay for all these championships with expanded fields, and then realize just how little interest the networks have in paying more money for a 96 team field, I think it will fade out.

[Xville]

Although I wish you were correct on the above, I don't think that you are and ultimately believe there will be an expansion. In my opinion, the First Four gets basically no eyeballs is for several reasons.

1.) It's marketed horribly as it doesn't even feel like part of the tournament.
2.) 2 games are between 16 seeds that no one gives a poop about
3.) Most brackets don't even take the games into consideration, so no one out of gigantic college basketball fans and fans of the respective teams care to watch.

If, as you say, they expand it to 96 teams and there is essentially an entire round added, you better believe it will earn more money, and be marketed in a way that it is all part of the main tournament. My thought is that they would probably just add another weekend to milk it for all that its worth.

With all that said, I hope it never happens because it rewards mediocrity, but people don't care when another bag of cash falls in their lap.

[xuphan]

No thanks. I would actually like to see it be reduced.

[MHettel]

But wouldnt this be good for the players? I mean, people defend the NIL and the immediate transfer rules based on the fact that it benefits players. Why wouldn't this proposal get the same benefit.

In fact, expanding the tournament to 96 teams actually would have far LESS impact on the overall sport that either NIL or Immediate transfers....


Rant over.

Anyway, I dont see them positing this as an expansion of the first 4. I see it as basically giving first round bye's to the top 32 teams. Identify the top 32 teams and set them aside. Seed the remaining 64 and let them play 1 vs 64, 2 vs 63, 3 vs 62, etc with the higher seed having a home game.

32 winners of the "first round" will emerge and when added to the 32 teams that got a bye, you'd create the classic 64 team bracket with 8 game sites and all the familiar aspects that we are used to. it would feel VERY similar to what we had today.

This is the part I'm still thinking about....what would be the "composition" of the teams that would be added to get from 68 to 96. Thats 28 more teams than today. How many would come from the "Power" conferences? If you think about it, XU probably would have made it each of the last 4 seasons. How many would be the solid teams from the mid-majors? Imagine some of the years where XU was in the A10 but didnt make it, but would they have if there were 28 more spots? And finally, how many additional low majors would get in?

I suspect that we would see about 50% of the additional teams come from the "power" conferences, and then about 35% from the mid-majors, leaving maybe 15% from the low majors. That first round with the 1-64 seeding would all but wipe out most of the low majors.

the final 64 team bracket could have a significantly different makeup...

[xubrew]

Although I wish you were correct on the above, I don't think that you are and ultimately believe there will be an expansion. In my opinion, the First Four gets basically no eyeballs is for several reasons.

1.) It's marketed horribly as it doesn't even feel like part of the tournament.
2.) 2 games are between 16 seeds that no one gives a poop about
3.) Most brackets don't even take the games into consideration, so no one out of gigantic college basketball fans and fans of the respective teams care to watch.

If, as you say, they expand it to 96 teams and there is essentially an entire round added, you better believe it will earn more money, and be marketed in a way that it is all part of the main tournament. My thought is that they would probably just add another weekend to milk it for all that its worth.

With all that said, I hope it never happens because it rewards mediocrity, but people don't care when another bag of cash falls in their lap.

You may be right.

I know some people at CBS are saying they don't want to pay a lot more money for an expanded tournament. But the current contract expires in 2032. On top of that, it's not looking like Turner will be a part of the next one, so will CBS even be able to hold on to it without them?? Or will the landscape change multiple times in ways we aren't expecting, and this all plays out in a way that no one is able to predict??

There has been a lot of talk for twenty years of expanding the tournament, but most of it was just that. Talk. The last time they looked at going to 96 teams was when it expanded to 68 and they added the First Four. A big reason why they didn't was because of the TV contract. That was all pretty interesting.

But, this is different. I think the chances of it happening are around 50/50. If it does go to 96, I don't think CBS will have it anymore. Which, in the grand scheme of things, isn't that important, but it is kind of crazy to think about. In no point of my life has CBS not had the NCAA Tournament.

[xu82]

No thanks. I would actually like to see it be reduced.

Money makes people do strange things.

[xubrew]

I believe Jim Boeheim needs two more wins to reach 1000. After watching their exhibition game so far, I’m thinking they may not be able to do it.