Do you agree with Rick and Paul

[IM4X]

Both seemed shocked that X got picked to be a top 25 team next season in multiple polls. They were wondering what it could possibly be that got people comings to that conclusion (it was mentioned towards the end of their podcast).

Personally, I am not getting why they are so shocked. The team just won the NIT Tournament. While it is not the NCAA, they did have to beat a solid Texas A&M team in the championship who probably deserved to play on the NCAA tournament. Next, there is quite a bit of talent that looks to be returning (and if they don’t return the the polls will likely change to no longer include them. Then you have Sean Miller taking over as head coach- someone everyone knows can recruit and get the most out of his players. Then there are two good recruits already recommitted. No one can say for sure how good the team will be. I could see someone covering X being surprised If X was being talked about as a top 10 team, but personally I’m a little shocked that they are acting shocked that people think X could be a top 25 team with Sean at the helm and with the players returning/coming.

They also said they would be very surprised if X would make the NCAA tournament next year.

What???? Isn’’t that why we got Sean. I mean, this is not a rebuild- we likely will have good players and he is a very good coach right? Again, I am shocked to hear these things form those guys. Who knows what the ceiling is next year, but Colby Jones is not sticking around X to go back to the NIT.

Christopher is paying Sean a sh!+ load of money. Christopher has already said the expectations are for X to get to the NCAA and advance. Those are my damn expectations. I think Sean will do it. He’s getting paid because that what he does. If that is not the expectation, they should have gone out and gotten one of those Mid Major coaches who would have taken half of what Sean is getting paid. We have to believe and expect Sean will get it done.


https://247sports.com/college/xavier/Article/Xavier-basketball-podcast-Jonas-Hayes-Dwon-Odom-NIT-Sean-Miller-185815365/

[D-West & PO-Z]

I posted about the preseason polls in another thread and how I was shocked we were ranked.

We have some nice pieces returning but we have a lot of holes to fill. This kind of stuff is silly to even discuss at this point when there are so many players potentially entering the portal still and seeing who we might get from the portal.

I have total faith in Miller, I think he will have the team competing their best but as of right now we have the same poor 3 point shooting we've had (or worse with Nat leaving, I dont think we can rely on freshman in most cases), we have no PG, we need at least one defensive big man.

I can't wait to see what Miller can make happen from the portal though. I think he has big plans for the PG spot.

If I had to bet a sum of money I really cared about at this exact moment without knowing how the roster shapes out, I probably lean towards the side that we don't make the tournament. The only reason I have faith we might is I know Miller will get everything out of every player, and I think he can land us some impact portal guys.

[xu82]

With the portal situation being what it is, any speculation now is pure click bait and should be punishable by…..I can’t type that. But it is SERIOUS! I promise you do NOT want that!

[GoMuskies]

Let's see our roster, and then I'll tell you if I agree or disagree.

[IM4X]

I agree that we need to wait to see how the roster looks before the season starts. I guess what seemed strange to me is that it came across like they thought it was absurd to think X would be considered in the top 25 - Like there was literally no concrete evidence to show that they could be that good next season - like they completely forgot this was a team that turned things around and win the NiT championship once their head coach was fired. Like it was ridiculous to think Sean Miller could get an already solid team (knock on wood no key players transfer) to continue to play at the same level or better. It just really had me scratching my head.

I’ll admit I was a little surprised X was included in some Top 25 polls (thought they would be somewhere between 27-37), but it certainly isn’t a crazy stretch to think they could be in the top 25 —especially with Miller taking over. If we started seeing Nunge or Free and Kunkel transferring and if Miller was not bringing in any high level transfers and if Ward did not recommit, then yes, it would be shocking to see X in the top 25. Though, if that happened, you would likely no longer see X being included in any top 25 polls.

These early polls usually consider the following:

A) How well the team finished the previous season (X gets points there)
B) How many key players are returning -assuming everyone who can come back will)
C) How good the recruiting classes coming in looks to be (X gets points here - assuming Ward is coming)
D) How good the coach is at coaching (X gets big points here)
E) How good the coach is at recruiting and pulling in transfers at. High level (X gets big points here)

Put this all together and it is not surprising at all that X would be considered (at least at this point) to be in or close a the top 25.

[profson]

Those around 15 are ridiculous. Those around 25 are surprising. You can't project who you think might come in. We are missing a PG with no obvious replacement. Our 4 has limitations to say the least. There is no go-to guy for the end of the game. Our best 3P guy on a bad 3P team is gone. Our D was bad down the stretch and in the NIT. Sure it was nice to win the NIT and I enjoyed MSG, but apart from TAM none of the victories was against a team in the top 50 Kenpom and most were well below. We almost lost to Cleveland State for god's sake. None of the five would finish in the top half of the BE, with the possible exception of TAM being in the middle. Sure I am excited about Miller but he needs more horses.

[UCGRAD4X]

Those around 15 are ridiculous. Those around 25 are surprising. You can't project who you think might come in. We are missing a PG with no obvious replacement. Our 4 has limitations to say the least. There is no go-to guy for the end of the game. Our best 3P guy on a bad 3P team is gone. Our D was bad down the stretch and in the NIT. Sure it was nice to win the NIT and I enjoyed MSG, but apart from TAM none of the victories was against a team in the top 50 Kenpom and most were well below. We almost lost to Cleveland State for god's sake. None of the five would finish in the top half of the BE, with the possible exception of TAM being in the middle. Sure I am excited about Miller but he needs more horses.

I agree about the poll for these reason and because WAY TOO EARLY!

I would not be surprised at all that Miller gets us to the tourney with less talent than the Tin Man had.

[GIMMFD]

Obviously Nijel Pack tipped his hand to show he's committing to X as our scoring PG, and Kerr Kriisa is transferring from Arizona to X to be our "pure PG" to the voters. Like others said, probably a lot of recency bias with the NIT run, and Xavier has a solid name in the college basketball world. Any time I run into anybody back home in West Virginia with Xavier gear on, I always get "helluva basketball school" so there's some brand recognition. When filling out a list without any of the madness that ensues with the portal, I'd argue you go with name recognition first, and then look for NCAA darlings that didn't get their roster purged and are returning players.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

I agree with Rick as seldomly as possible. Paul is just so darn nice, you can't help but want to agree with him.

Any projections until the roster is mostly set is ridiculous, but I know this, I'm giving Sean Miller the benefit of the doubt every time.

[XUGRAD80]

I can’t tell you what the “expectations” should be until we see what the roster is, who the coaches are, and how the rest of the BE looks. I can tell you that my “aspirations and goals” for the team are for it to be a top 25 ranked team, to make the tourney, and to reach the 2nd weekend at the very least.

Expectations and aspirations are not always the same thing. Expectations should be based on reality and facts only. Aspirations are based on dreams.

[xuwin]

Obviously Nijel Pack tipped his hand to show he's committing to X as our scoring PG, and Kerr Kriisa is transferring from Arizona to X to be our "pure PG" to the voters. Like others said, probably a lot of recency bias with the NIT run, and Xavier has a solid name in the college basketball world. Any time I run into anybody back home in West Virginia with Xavier gear on, I always get "helluva basketball school" so there's some brand recognition. When filling out a list without any of the madness that ensues with the portal, I'd argue you go with name recognition first, and then look for NCAA darlings that didn't get their roster purged and are returning players.

Nice offensive stats but both are undersized for Big East play.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Those around 15 are ridiculous. Those around 25 are surprising. You can't project who you think might come in. We are missing a PG with no obvious replacement. Our 4 has limitations to say the least. There is no go-to guy for the end of the game. Our best 3P guy on a bad 3P team is gone. Our D was bad down the stretch and in the NIT. Sure it was nice to win the NIT and I enjoyed MSG, but apart from TAM none of the victories was against a team in the top 50 Kenpom and most were well below. We almost lost to Cleveland State for god's sake. None of the five would finish in the top half of the BE, with the possible exception of TAM being in the middle. Sure I am excited about Miller but he needs more horses.

This sums it up nicely.

I am almost always as optimistic as they come as an X fan but even I think it is ridiculous to think, as X currently sits right now, that they are a top 25 team. As the roster stands now, we are worse on paper than we were this past year.

Now I have total faith in Miller to get more out of the current players than Steele did and to get key positions filled through the portal, so I have hope X can get there by the start of the season.

[markchal]

I hope people aren't gonna freak out if we don't get to the tourney next year, it's gonna take Miller a little time before he's really hitting his stride. My expectations is that he will have the team playing hard and we will see improvement from the beginning of the year to the end, and feel pretty encouraged about the future.

That said, I think it's entirely possible that Sean could make this into a strong team with a few key roster pickups and could certainly have them in the tournament next year.

[GoMuskies]

Depending on the roster....I promise not to freak out until year 2. But I WOULD take a bet that we'll make the Tournament next season. I just assume he'll be able to assemble enough talent to make that happen. If he can keep Nunge and Kunkel, I think we're basically one impact transfer away from having a pretty nice roster. Everything beyond that (Freemantle, Edwards, Ward, other transfers) would be gravy.

[xukeith]

Obviously Nijel Pack tipped his hand to show he's committing to X as our scoring PG, and Kerr Kriisa is transferring from Arizona to X to be our "pure PG" to the voters. Like oth

How do you know this? Is it optimistic hope?

[Jumpin_Jamal_Forever]

Depending on the roster....I promise not to freak out until year 2. But I WOULD take a bet that we'll make the Tournament next season. I just assume he'll be able to assemble enough talent to make that happen. If he can keep Nunge and Kunkel, I think we're basically one impact transfer away from having a pretty nice roster. Everything beyond that (Freemantle, Edwards, Ward, other transfers) would be gravy.

The roster could always go south on us but I think its a good bet. If we get back everybody but Odom, add a P.G. and get more out of Miles and Tandy, I expect to make the dance. This team was a different team in the NIT. Yes, I know, it was the NIT but they played well enough in those four games to make me think they would have won 3-4 more games in the B.E. under Hayes. If the recruits contribute as well, this team could be a force in the conference. Not saying I fully expect it. Just that it isn't that far out of the question.

We may be surprised (not completely shocked though) at how mismanaged this roster was under Steele and how much more confidently they play under Miller. The talent differential isn't that huge. A new leader may take the existing talent to a much higher level.

[GoMuskies]

How do you know this? Is it optimistic hope?

Pretty sure it was a joke.

[muskiefan82]

We may be surprised (not completely shocked though) at how mismanaged this roster was under Steele and how much more confidently they play under Miller.

I will NOT be surprised at all

[Xville]

The roster could always go south on us but I think its a good bet. If we get back everybody but Odom, add a P.G. and get more out of Miles and Tandy, I expect to make the dance. This team was a different team in the NIT. Yes, I know, it was the NIT but they played well enough in those four games to make me think they would have won 3-4 more games in the B.E. under Hayes. If the recruits contribute as well, this team could be a force in the conference. Not saying I fully expect it. Just that it isn't that far out of the question.

We may be surprised (not completely shocked though) at how mismanaged this roster was under Steele and how much more confidently they play under Miller. The talent differential isn't that huge. A new leader may take the existing talent to a much higher level.

I won’t be surprised at all.. I and others here have been saying for three years how bad Steele’s roster and lineup management were. I don’t think Steele knows the game as much as he thinks he does. I think he knows numbers and spreadsheets.

[GIMMFD]

Nice offensive stats but both are undersized for Big East play.

Nijel Pack dropped 31 on Baylor, and 35 on Kansas, in a very tough Big 12 Conference. Not to mention 32 on Iowa State (a team our Big East guards could do nothing against), he will get his no matter his size.


Pretty sure it was a joke.

It absolutely was a joke lol. Though let's hope it comes to fruition.

[principal]

I hope people aren't gonna freak out if we don't get to the tourney next year, it's gonna take Miller a little time before he's really hitting his stride. My expectations is that he will have the team playing hard and we will see improvement from the beginning of the year to the end, and feel pretty encouraged about the future.

That said, I think it's entirely possible that Sean could make this into a strong team with a few key roster pickups and could certainly have them in the tournament next year.

For whatever reason this reminded me of Miller's post-game with Byron and Joe. I enjoyed listening to him and, if I recall correctly, he would call out players without saying their names so that the message was received without the humiliation. Regardless, he seemed to provide more than the typical "coach speak". I look forward to hearing his post-game comments again!

[IM4X]

Depending on the roster....I promise not to freak out until year 2. But I WOULD take a bet that we'll make the Tournament next season. I just assume he'll be able to assemble enough talent to make that happen. If he can keep Nunge and Kunkel, I think we're basically one impact transfer away from having a pretty nice roster. Everything beyond that (Freemantle, Edwards, Ward, other transfers) would be gravy.

I feel pretty much this way. I’ve gotta believe Nunge, Colby and anyone else returning are not staying because Sean told them he thinks the team can get back in the tournament in two years, though. The players returning are doing so because they believe 100% that next season’s team will have even more confidence and play together even better and because Miller likely let them know “Somehow, someway, X is getting in the tournament next year -that’s where X belongs.”

If you are a fan who believes in Sean Miller and think he was a home run hire, you have to believe he will take the good pieces he’s being handed and add a few new ones to assemble and mold a heck of a team and he will get his players into the NCAA Tournament next year.

Again, we have to remember this not going to be a complete rebuild for him and there may be as few as 3 spots that need to be filled with some playmakers. Miller has two huge piece coming back in Colby and Nunge (assuming the rumors are all true about him). We are adding another sharp shooter in Craft. We are bringing in a solid ball handler in Claude. Kyky is coming back. For now, we will assume Kunkel and Free are returning. I have to believe we will grab at least one or two solid to very good contributors from the transfer portal. Ward may even recommit and fill one of the needed spots. Miller is smart not to oversell the public on first year expectations, but you had better believe in his mind he is thinking, “There is no way we are not getting in the tournament next year.” Underpromise- overdeliver.

[D-West & PO-Z]

We are adding another sharp shooter in Craft.

This implies we already have a sharp shooter. Who would that be?

I do think its entirely reasonable to think Miller will figure out a way to assemble a roster that is tourney bound. With the portal that probably should be the expectation even in year 1 for a really good coach. Top 25 I am much more skeptical about without knowing we have impact transfers coming in the areas we have need. I could for sure seeing Miller pull that off though.

[IM4X]

This implies we already have a sharp shooter. Who would that be?

I do think its entirely reasonable to think Miller will figure out a way to assemble a roster that is tourney bound. With the portal that probably should be the expectation even in year 1 for a really good coach. Top 25 I am much more skeptical about without knowing we have impact transfers coming in the areas we have need. I could for sure seeing Miller pull that off though.

I’d say Kunkel or and Kyky fall into the “sharp shooter” category. They just were not properly coached/ reined in by their coach. I can easily see those two (under Milled) taking smart shots and pass on some of the lower percentage ones they’ve forced (particularly Adam). If they do, I could see Kunkel and Tandy potential shooting close to 40%.

Let’s say Adam shoots six 3s a game, makes two and and takes at least one shot that is objectively a very bad/ low percentage shot that misses (maybe it’s way too far out or he’s flying through the air left to right when launching the ball). We all know such a scenario is not far fetched. In that scenario he would be averaging 33% from 3 (which is about what he averaged this season). Now, suppose Sean got him to recognize the bad shots he’s taking and got him to stop taking that one really bad shot every game. It would mean Adam shots five 3s, making two of them. Now his 3 point shooting average average is 40% and X has one less wasted offensive possession.

It would be awesome if Sean got a very good 3 point shooter from the transfer portal, but if Kam is capable of shooting as well as Nate (before the injury and slump) then we are already back in business.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I’d say Kunkel or and Kyky fall into the “sharp shooter” category. They just were not properly coached/ reined in by their coach. I can easily see those two (under Milled) taking smart shots and pass on some of the lower percentage ones they’ve forced (particularly Adam). If they do, I could see Kunkel and Tandy potential shooting close to 40%.

Let’s say Adam shoots six 3s a game, makes two and and takes at least one shot that is objectively a very bad/ low percentage shot that misses (maybe it’s way too far out or he’s flying through the air left to right when launching the ball). We all know such a scenario is not far fetched. In that scenario he would be averaging 33% from 3 (which is about what he averaged this season). Now, suppose Sean got him to recognize the bad shots he’s taking and got him to stop taking that one really bad shot every game. It would mean Adam shots five 3s, making two of them. Now his 3 point shooting average average is 40% and X has one less wasted offensive possession.

It would be awesome if Sean got a very good 3 point shooter from the transfer portal, but if Kam is capable of shooting as well as Nate (before the injury and slump) then we are already back in business.

That is a lot of "if's". Usually what a player has shown over 4 years is what they are most likely to show in the future.

Kunkel was a 37% shooter at Belmont, has been a 31% shooter at X. Not surprising given it's probably tougher getting quality shots off in the BE than the OVC. His career he is a 34% shooter. I think Miller can make a difference in every player X has. Do I think he magically turns into a 40% shooter? No, but I think you are right, with some better shot selection he can get somewhat better.

I still think we need to find a shooter in the portal, unless Kyky really is going to contribute big next year.

[IM4X]

That is a lot of "if's". Usually what a player has shown over 4 years is what they are most likely to show in the future.

Kunkel was a 37% shooter at Belmont, has been a 31% shooter at X. Not surprising given it's probably tougher getting quality shots off in the BE than the OVC. His career he is a 34% shooter. I think Miller can make a difference in every player X has. Do I think he magically turns into a 40% shooter? No, but I think you are right, with some better shot selection he can get somewhat better.

I still think we need to find a shooter in the portal, unless Kyky really is going to contribute big next year.

Somehow, I think Miller is 4 steps ahead of where we all think he might be with both his strategy in coaching and in assembling a team. I think he watched this team this past season and started to salivate over how good the team could be next year if he had the chance to make a few tweaks to the coaching and personnel.

I think the stat you pointed to about Kunkel shooting 37% at Belmont is telling. Personally, I believe the decline in shooting percentage from the 3 has much more to do with his reckless shot selection at X (partly created by Steele giving everyone other than Odom the green light to launch a 3 if they feel they are open) than it does with anything else. If Adam sticks around, I think we will see his percentage go up next year.

[xudash]

Somehow, I think Miller is 4 steps ahead of where we all think he might be with both his strategy in coaching and in assembling a team. I think he watched this team this past season and started to salivate over how good the team could be next year if he had the chance to make a few tweaks to the coaching and personnel.

I think the stat you pointed to about Kunkel shooting 37% at Belmont is telling. Personally, I believe the decline in shooting percentage from the 3 has much more to do with his reckless shot selection at X (partly created by Steele giving everyone other than Odom the green light to launch a 3 if they feel they are open) than it does with anything else. If Adam sticks around, I think we will see his percentage go up next year.

Totally agree.