Career Wrap: Jason Carter

[MHettel]

For the last 3 years, I've provided a contextual analysis of XU players that have just finished their careers.

The "context" of this analysis is a large group of XU players dating back to 1990. I base everything on a "per minute" basis and look at the full career of a player, and not individual years.

I have stats for 80 players. The criteria to be included is that they must have played 1000 career minutes, or played a significant role in at least one season ( Kanter, Gastin, Welage, Hankins, etc). 4 year guys that didn't play 1000 career minutes are not included (Reggie Butler, for instance).

So, some details:
There are 28 guards, 20 Swingmen, and 32 bigs. 48 guys qualify as "shooters" which means 100 career 3 attempts or 30% of total shot attempts from 3.

For some older guys, I don't have OReb details. And some guys didn't have minutes played. Each stat I provide will give the relative population of players.

For the last 2 years, I have included Free and Tandy, as contributing Freshmen. They are Part of the comparable population for this analysis, although their stories are not over...

Over the next 3 days, I will update the rest of the roster. I will add the 3 freshmen, and probably Johnson. And update Scruggs. This analysis is just Carter against the former and current players as of last year.

Analysis of Jason Carter:

What I saw with my eyes: A player that understands a defensive system and can contribute more for that reason that what his measurables (size and athleticism) suggest he could. "Justin Cage" style on defense. Plus/Plus hustle and awareness. Not a lock down guy, but a tone setter defensively. My defensive stats wont reveal anything to support / refute what I saw.

Offensively, he was a giant liability that shot too much and didn't shoot well. Can't ballhandle, or pass particularly well. No Offensive vision, and wasn't a guy that could help free up a shooter with a pick. No confidence, and basically lacked "ice water". I really cant recall a big shot that he made that led to a victory. I think once, he may have made the 2nd (after missing the first) FT to tie the game late after we blew a big lead. Who knows if that is true.....but that's what I remember.

THE STATS


Minutes per game: 16th of 59
Shot attempts per minute: 51 of 59
FG%: 72 of 80
3PT %: 48 of 48
3PT Attempts per total Shot attempts: 38 of 48
FTA per Minute: 52 of 59
FT%: 65 of 80


PAUSE: I thought Carter Player a lot. And he did. I thought he shot a lot, but he DIDNT. I thought he was a bad shooter, and he was. I thougth he couldn't get to the line and when he did was ineffective. CHECK! I mean, what I SAW was a bunch of misses. Like at an astounding rate. But he really didn't shoot very often. But it's easy to remember the misses when there aren't any makes to remember...

Assists Per Minute: 29 of 59
A/To Ratio: 27 of 60

Reaction to Offensive Stats: He took less shots than I recall. But maybe thats the Naji factor from last year where he was just taking all the looks. Seemed like Carter took more this year. Year by year stats may clear that up, and maybe I'll explore later. I don't remember him being a great passer and his Assist per minute ratio is higher than what I expected. Just expected him to miss FTs...and he did. Abysmal 3 PT Shooter. Should have taken less and made more. In every sense, a sub-par offensive player. Given the minutes played, could be argued as the most unproductive offensive XU player in 30 years. I get the argument of athletically challenged, but that dude missed wide open 3s and FTs with regularity.

Rebounds & Defensive stats

Rebounds per Minute: 30 of 59
OReb per Minute: 25 of 55
DReb per Minute: 28 of 55
DReb per Minute for BIG MEN: 23 of 25
Steals per Minute: 35 of 59
Blocks per Minute: 21 of 59
Block per Minute for BIG MEN: 20 of 28

Reaction to Rebounding & Defensive Stats Well, Carter DID play a lot of minutes. So I guess I saw a lot of rebounds. And he had some blocks. But Again, he played so much that of COURSE he did. But on a per minute basis these stats come up short again. Really just undersized and lack of athleticism that limited his productivity. Cant measure hustle with stats, aside...from of course....Wins and losses.

What do you do with a guy that provides intangibles for a bad team? My answer is that I wish he had some tangibles.

Conclusion


Its going to be hard to find a comp player that played as many minutes without experiencing lower individual or team success. We've had some "glue guys" that didn't have the numbers, but did have the W's.

Carter, in my mind, goes down as the most unproductive player that had a legit role in the last 30 years. I may explore this later to see if Justin Martin or Jeff Robinson can compete with this...

[whopper]

I think if you broke out the last 8 games (after St Johns 1 where he had 11 and 16 and he and Griffin held for for Zach and Stanley's season ended) the numbers would improve a bit. Something seemed to change after that (confidence or maybe other teams going right at him). Since he played a similar position to Naj you would think the numbers would improve with Naj leaving but they did not. I wish him the best of luck and appreciate anyone who puts on the uniform. For us former scrubs and industrial league players it is all fun and games but at this level it is more and more of a blood sport. Compare the fact that last year we had Tyrique, Naj, Zach, jason and this year we had Zach Jason and Griffin (underutilized) and you have all you need to know about this year. Sad that Jason Big East high of 17 last senior night(Butler) was negated by Kamar Butler.

[drudy23]

So you're saying he's not getting his number retired?

Basically, his role should have been "get rebounds and throw it back out to a shooter" - he will go down as the biggest minutes eating mystery in Xavier history.

Maybe we will find out some day if there is a "Travis Steele - Behind the Scenes" ever made.

[RetireFiftyTu]

Outside of Carter's 3 point shooting and free throw shooting which both completely fell off a cliff, he improved his numbers in just about every other statistical category believe it or not. What's baffling is he just completely forgot how to shoot the ball. Last year 20-63 (31.7%) from 3, 14-43 in conference (32.6%). Not good but at least kind of respectable. This year 8-44 (18.2%), 2-25 in conference (8.0%). Absolutely abysmal. Last year on free throws he was 39-55 (70.9%), 15-27 (55.6%) in conference so maybe a sign of things to come. This year 22-40 (55.0%), 11-26 (42.3%) in conference. Just a mind boggling drop in his shooting from deep and at the line.

But he shot 50% from 2 this year compared to 43.6% last year. 56.2% at the rim compared to 57.3% last year with a greater share of shots at the rim. Rebounding rates went up this year, turnover rate dropped fairly significantly. He just couldn't hit water if he fell out of a boat outside the paint. And it sure felt like he missed a lot of layups.

My biggest gripe with Steele is that he is too stubborn and consistently continues to roll with things that clearly aren't working. Reducing Carter's minutes would have been the easiest and most convenient thing to try. Carter's defense is probably more valuable than we credit but he was pretty much a black hole offensively this year. Seems like a good guy and the flack he catches is probably a tad much but I think it will be good for Xavier to try some new options at his spot next year.

[throwbackmuskie]

Carter would have been a good player for an A10 Xavier. Big East Xavier, nothing more than a bench player.

[JTG]

This whole Carter business is on Steele. It's not Carter's fault. He is what he is, a bench guy. But, who of us, if in his shoes would say " take me out coach, I can't play". He should have played maybe 8 minutes a half, and been told to do his best on D, leave the O to the other 4.
I had a kid in HS ball , who looked like Jerry West when he shot. Trouble was it didn't go in. Never gave me any trouble, always on time, worked hard at practice. But, he couldn't score, so he played 6 minutes a game.

[GoMuskies]

Carter would have been a good player for an A10 Xavier. Big East Xavier, nothing more than a bench player.

After this year, A-10 Xavier on average is pretty much on par with Big East Xavier. Carter didn't belong on those teams either (well, maybe the bad A-10 Xavier teams).

[Mrs. Garrett]

Probably the thing that really stood out and surprised me after seeing his numbers from OU, was that he lacked confidence. He passed up a ton of open looks and when he did shoot you could tell the confidence wasn't there.

I also saw a guy who did a lot of the little things that would have made him a great 10-15 minutes a game guy on a better team. Travis played him too much and that is on Travis.

[LOLmickcronin]

What I’ll remember about Carter is being very frustrated with him and feeling very bad for him at the same time. I’ve been a Xavier fan since the early 90s and I know there have been guys fans have been frustrated with but Carter is the most universally “why the f is he playing so much” guy I remember.

And I feel bad for him. By all accounts he seems like a nice kid and clearly busted his ass for the team. But he was a MAC talent that tried to come to the big East and couldn’t hang. He was always extraordinarily slow, has zero bounce, and when his shooting tanked (8% from 3 in conference this year!!) became worthless. And yet steele continued to hang him out to dry giving him starter and finisher minutes. Insane. He probably could have held his own in a 10-15 mpg role player role and as a secondary result we probably could have scored more, won more, and avoided a likely transfer.

[McX]

Does anyone find it a bit ironic that Ohio made the field and Jason, for reasons not entirely his own, has not?

I also agree that "the flack he catches is probably a tad much."

[profson]

Does anyone find it a bit ironic that Ohio made the field and Jason, for reasons not entirely his own, has not?

I also agree that "the flack he catches is probably a tad much."

You are confusing coincidence and irony as many do. The irony would be if losing their best player resulted in a better result. But can anyone say that OU would have been less likely to win the conference tournament if he had been on the team? Remember he was their best scorer and rebounder.

[Drew]

You are confusing coincidence and irony as many do. The irony would be if losing their best player resulted in a better result. But can anyone say that OU would have been less likely to win the conference tournament if he had been on the team? Remember he was their best scorer and rebounder.

The irony is Carter left OU to join a better Xavier team. Yet the opposite has happened.

[whopper]

The irony is Carter left OU to join a better Xavier team. Yet the opposite has happened.
he played 3 at OU and 2 at X so would not have been there. Good luck to him and i appreciate the efforts and i know from the look on his face that he was aware of the results. I still cant believe we had Tyrique, Naj (a power forward rebounding type) Freemantel and Carter in 19-20 and were left with Free and Carter(and Griffin who should have gotten more run) this year ..there is NO WAY they are close to equivalent. I dont know why we did not admit this earlier and when i look at GTown, Seton Hall, Uconn and other front lines we were not competitive. I do believe there is a school of thought that everyone should take an open shot or it is almost like a turnover but in this case it just did not work.

[MHettel]

Outside of Carter's 3 point shooting and free throw shooting which both completely fell off a cliff, he improved his numbers in just about every other statistical category believe it or not. .

Ok, I just compared his per minute numbers from the last 2 years. This year, he shot LESS and WORSE. And of his shot attempts this year, MORE of them were 3's and LESS of his makes were from 3. He got to the line 26% more, and yet made 6% LESS FTs (all per minute stats). Assist per minute was up by 21%, blocks up by 22%. Steals were flat. TOs down a bit, fouls were up. The big gain was rebounds. He went from 6.7 Rebs per 40 minutes to 8.9. That seems like a decent jump until you realize that he played with Tyrique last year who was getting 15.7 rebound per 40 minutes and then Freemantle this year who was getting 11.3.

So, yes I acknowledge the statistical improvement in rebounds. And I attribute it to removing Tyrique from under the bucket.

but in fairness Carter was a decent rebounder.

[MHettel]

he played 3 at OU and 2 at X so would not have been there. Good luck to him and i appreciate the efforts and i know from the look on his face that he was aware of the results. I still cant believe we had Tyrique, Naj (a power forward rebounding type) Freemantel and Carter in 19-20 and were left with Free and Carter(and Griffin who should have gotten more run) this year ..there is NO WAY they are close to equivalent. I dont know why we did not admit this earlier and when i look at GTown, Seton Hall, Uconn and other front lines we were not competitive. I do believe there is a school of thought that everyone should take an open shot or it is almost like a turnover but in this case it just did not work.

Incorrect. Carter played 2 full Seasons at OU. He played 3 games as a soph and I think he got injured and a redshirt. He had 2 years left. He would have been there. How would he have played this year if he wasn't eligible?

[McX]

You are confusing coincidence and irony as many do. The irony would be if losing their best player resulted in a better result. But can anyone say that OU would have been less likely to win the conference tournament if he had been on the team? Remember he was their best scorer and rebounder.


Nope, I know the difference Prof.

[UCGRAD4X]

My wife does the ironing.

At least she used to.