Transfers vs Developing Players: A Major Issue

[LOLmickcronin]

I've been thinking about this issue for a couple seasons and it was driven home again to me at the end of this season. Transfers consistently taking playing time from younger players whom we've recruited (for a reason) and are trying to develop has become a gigantic contributing factor to why we have not been as successful year over year. A poster in another thread also mentioned that our recruited freshmen are like 1st and 2nd round draft picks while transfers are like Waiver Wire pickups which also got me thinking...

First, please bear with me and give me the following assumptions/benefit of the doubt:

1. I KNOW transfers happen. Every year when transfers occur these boards light up ("Duh it's 2021 and we're getting 4 star recruits, tRaNsFeRs HaPpEn eVeRyWhErE!!"). I know this. I'm not saying we should never accept a transfer. I'm not saying I expect us to never have a player transfer.

2. The examples I use do not assume that any of the players who transferred away would have big all big east. I know some probably needed to transfer. I'm just using all the examples I see.

3. I know not all guys getting minutes played the exact same positions as guys that left. But just because Ryan Welage was a forward technically he was basically a spot up shooter and there are guards who could have played over them.

So here we go, working backwards...

2021: Likely losing Tandy, maybe Miles and maybe Ramsey (obviously for different reasons)--- at the expense of minutes for Jason Carter and to some degree nate johnson/adam kunkel (I'll touch on Nate Johnson later).

2020: Lost Dontarius James and Dahmir Bishop--- at the expense of minutes for Jason Carter and Bryce Moore.

2019: Lost Elias Harden and Keonte Kennedy --- at the expense of minutes for Ryan Welage and Kyle Castlin.

2018: No one lost that I can remember

2016/17: Lost Makinde London and Larry Austin--- at the expense of Rashid Gaston and Remy Abell

To my count that'll be somewhere between 7-9 out of 17 recruits that landed at Xavier since 2014 transferring out. Now, were Nate Johnson, Rashid Gaston, and Remy very important pick ups for one reason or another? Yes! Were all of the transfers out going to end up being huge impact players in the Big East? Probably not.

But it does seem to be a huge issue that we have these transfer players come in and take time away from the higher level recruits we bring it. It's helpful to fill needs with these transfers but I think there's a huge issue that the coach's don't see-- which is that of course a guy with experience like Jason Carter or Kyle Castlin can come in and practice better, be more mature, and be more prepared for D1 college basketball than an unpolished raw prospect like Miles, Keonte, Dontarius, etc. But the fact is the latter were all higher recruited for a reason. And the other fact is that since Xavier will NEVER get 5 star guys or blue chip one and dones that our best bet is to get solid, deep, recruiting classes--- some of which will develop soon and some which may not have a big impact until they are juniors/seniors.

This creates an ongoing problem because once we do this, half a freshman/sophomore recruiting class leaves and then we need to replace them with more transfers that are actually worse players in many cases. Get ready for a year or two from now when we're all clamoring that "we just need a shooter, a pure scorer!" when we just let Tandy walk who is a higher level version of that than we're going to get from Gardner-Webb or division II. Or in two years when we go, Zach is a great/treasured senior but he'd be so much better at the 4 with a true center down low....ya know, like 6'11 Deionte Miles who left two years ago. And so we'll get another low conference rebounder who comes to the big east and isn't quite as good as he was in the Ivy League or wherever he comes from. And will probably start over some 4 star freshman we recruit in 2024.

Anyway, I'm not sure how to reverse this other than just letting our young guys play next year and taking some lumps. Or hoping Steele pulls his head out of his ass and learns how to coach and LEAD people rather than just recruiting then basing everything on practice points.

[XUBison]

More players are transferring every year nationwide, so I think that reality is here to stay. I think it sucks. It is a lot less satisfying as a fan, at least in my opinion. A big reason I love and prefer college sports, and why X bball is my most favorite to follow, is because of the connection you feel with the players. Maybe it’s superficial, but we alumni have shared experiences with the players, and I think this whole free-agency transfer frenzy dilutes that big time.

[MHettel]

I have a LONG answer to your questions and observations. But I'll spare you.

For now , the answer is that we are building the roster year by year. And we are using the existing rules for "traditional recruits", "graduate transfers" and "regular transfers" to be as nimble as we can.

I'll be the first to say the following:
- We plan to compete at the highest level, but haven't been successful recruiting against the very top teams.
- We take chances on recruits, with the idea that it can pay off big, or they just move along.
- We fill big gaps with traditional transfers
- We fill smaller gaps with graduate transfers.


If we hit it right, a guy like Kanter can be the guy that makes us a 1 seed. When we do it wrong, we wind up thinking we can build around Carter.

I cant say for a fact, but I have to think (cause it feels this way) that we have disproportionately high levels of transfers in and out. And maybe that's best. We have been successful.

Given the current rules, and the possibility that they change, I feel like we are more likely to find the edges of how to utilize the transfer market so that we almost CREATE short term needs that we can fix yearly with short term transfers.

Not good. But on the other hand, haven't we been able to see the guys that will be transferring before it happens?

Ramsey and Kyky are gone. Like they were never here.

Miles is 50/50 in my mind. His need to develop physically may be a bona fide reason why he sat for 2 years. So, he may not be as dishearted at KyKy, who has seen the writing on the wall.

I expect at least 5 new faces on the bench next year. Hopefully 6 if they shitcan Travis.

[xavierj]

I have a LONG answer to your questions and observations. But I'll spare you.

For now , the answer is that we are building the roster year by year. And we are using the existing rules for "traditional recruits", "graduate transfers" and "regular transfers" to be as nimble as we can.

I'll be the first to say the following:
- We plan to compete at the highest level, but haven't been successful recruiting against the very top teams.
- We take chances on recruits, with the idea that it can pay off big, or they just move along.
- We fill big gaps with traditional transfers
- We fill smaller gaps with graduate transfers.


If we hit it right, a guy like Kanter can be the guy that makes us a 1 seed. When we do it wrong, we wind up thinking we can build around Carter.

I cant say for a fact, but I have to think (cause it feels this way) that we have disproportionately high levels of transfers in and out. And maybe that's best. We have been successful.

Given the current rules, and the possibility that they change, I feel like we are more likely to find the edges of how to utilize the transfer market so that we almost CREATE short term needs that we can fix yearly with short term transfers.

Not good. But on the other hand, haven't we been able to see the guys that will be transferring before it happens?

Ramsey and Kyky are gone. Like they were never here.

Miles is 50/50 in my mind. His need to develop physically may be a bona fide reason why he sat for 2 years. So, he may not be as dishearted at KyKy, who has seen the writing on the wall.

I expect at least 5 new faces on the bench next year. Hopefully 6 if they shitcan Travis.

You are probably wrong about Ramsey and I don’t think Miles has any intention of leaving. Tandy probably. I mean he hasn’t played. And Ramsey not playing wasn’t a coaching decision so it’s not like he thinks he should have been playing much of at all.

The reality is all teams will be hitting the transfer market hard for now and in the future. This isn’t a Xavier thing. I saw on another site someone said a high major assistant hasn’t talked to a high school recruit in over a year. That’s crazy. I think it’s tough to see high school kids, especially when you can’t, like this past year and also I think coaches are liking the idea of getting players they somewhat know what they are getting. I mean once a kid is in college you know if he can play or not. Transfers every year in and out will be the norm of college basketball moving forward.

[AviatorX]

I get the thought but if we're being honest, no one on your list has transferred and gone on to be good at the high-major level (I'm sure there are a few if we go back further). Is it a transfer problem or a recruiting problem? Doesn't seem like X "lost" much by missing out on the upper class years of these guys - I guess maybe you could argue for Austin/London but meh.

[boozehound]

You are probably wrong about Ramsey and I don’t think Miles has any intention of leaving. Tandy probably. I mean he hasn’t played. And Ramsey not playing wasn’t a coaching decision so it’s not like he thinks he should have been playing much of at all.

The reality is all teams will be hitting the transfer market hard for now and in the future. This isn’t a Xavier thing. I saw on another site someone said a high major assistant hasn’t talked to a high school recruit in over a year. That’s crazy. I think it’s tough to see high school kids, especially when you can’t, like this past year and also I think coaches are liking the idea of getting players they somewhat know what they are getting. I mean once a kid is in college you know if he can play or not. Transfers every year in and out will be the norm of college basketball moving forward.

If Ramsey transfers I'll be he transfers to a MUCH lower quality team / conference. He has stuck it out for a while battling health issues though, and we have stuck with him. I'm not sure why everyone is so convinced he is going to transfer.

[boozehound]

I get the thought but if we're being honest, no one on your list has transferred and gone on to be good at the high-major level (I'm sure there are a few if we go back further). Is it a transfer problem or a recruiting problem? Doesn't seem like X "lost" much by missing out on the upper class years of these guys - I guess maybe you could argue for Austin/London but meh.

This is a good point. Maybe they are more of a recruiting miss transfer than a regrettable loss.

I do agree that I'd like to see a consistent pipeline of developing players and less reliance on transfers though.

[LOLmickcronin]

I get the thought but if we're being honest, no one on your list has transferred and gone on to be good at the high-major level (I'm sure there are a few if we go back further). Is it a transfer problem or a recruiting problem? Doesn't seem like X "lost" much by missing out on the upper class years of these guys - I guess maybe you could argue for Austin/London but meh.

I agree none of them have gone on to tear it up at big name schools. But even someone like dontarius James has gone on to be the leading scorer at JU. You think we couldn’t have used his size this year (even if he averaged sometnkng like 7-4 just to give us minutes?) or Makinde london his senior year? He may not have averaged 18 a game like he did at chatanooga but having a guy with 4 years of experience in the program vs random transfers in their first big East season could be THE difference in pulling out these close feb/March games vs bottom half big East teams that we’ve been losing.

[xavierj]

I agree none of them have gone on to tear it up at big name schools. But even someone like dontarius James has gone on to be the leading scorer at JU. You think we couldn’t have used his size this year (even if he averaged sometnkng like 7-4 just to give us minutes?) or Makinde london his senior year? He may not have averaged 18 a game like he did at chatanooga but having a guy with 4 years of experience in the program vs random transfers in their first big East season could be THE difference in pulling out these close feb/March games vs bottom half big East teams that we’ve been losing.

Makinde went on the average 6 and then 13 the two years he played after leaving Xavier. Dontarius probably not what Xavier needed. He did nothing but shoot threes for Jacksonville, took 20 more threes than two’s this year and only averaged 4 rebounds a game in high minutes for a bad team. Not sure what having a big bomb threes would be much help, especially considering he would not get the same looks against the difference in competition and athleticism. He went to a good spot for him.

[Xville]

Just something that was interesting to me

Keonte Kennedy averaging 9 points and almost 6 rebounds a game from the guard spot this year at utep. Not saying he is necessarily what x needed this year either but this thread actually does have me thinking what the impact, transfers have had to the roster construction since Steele took over. Maybe if Steele has taken his lumps in the first year, some of those projects would have blossomed by now if they had stayed in the system. Just something to ponder...although I’m not sure this staff can develop anyone so maybe it’s a moot point

[xuphan]

I've been thinking about this issue for a couple seasons and it was driven home again to me at the end of this season. Transfers consistently taking playing time from younger players whom we've recruited (for a reason) and are trying to develop has become a gigantic contributing factor to why we have not been as successful year over year. A poster in another thread also mentioned that our recruited freshmen are like 1st and 2nd round draft picks while transfers are like Waiver Wire pickups which also got me thinking...

First, please bear with me and give me the following assumptions/benefit of the doubt:

1. I KNOW transfers happen. Every year when transfers occur these boards light up ("Duh it's 2021 and we're getting 4 star recruits, tRaNsFeRs HaPpEn eVeRyWhErE!!"). I know this. I'm not saying we should never accept a transfer. I'm not saying I expect us to never have a player transfer.

2. The examples I use do not assume that any of the players who transferred away would have big all big east. I know some probably needed to transfer. I'm just using all the examples I see.

3. I know not all guys getting minutes played the exact same positions as guys that left. But just because Ryan Welage was a forward technically he was basically a spot up shooter and there are guards who could have played over them.

So here we go, working backwards...

2021: Likely losing Tandy, maybe Miles and maybe Ramsey (obviously for different reasons)--- at the expense of minutes for Jason Carter and to some degree nate johnson/adam kunkel (I'll touch on Nate Johnson later).

2020: Lost Dontarius James and Dahmir Bishop--- at the expense of minutes for Jason Carter and Bryce Moore.

2019: Lost Elias Harden and Keonte Kennedy --- at the expense of minutes for Ryan Welage and Kyle Castlin.

2018: No one lost that I can remember

2016/17: Lost Makinde London and Larry Austin--- at the expense of Rashid Gaston and Remy Abell

To my count that'll be somewhere between 7-9 out of 17 recruits that landed at Xavier since 2014 transferring out. Now, were Nate Johnson, Rashid Gaston, and Remy very important pick ups for one reason or another? Yes! Were all of the transfers out going to end up being huge impact players in the Big East? Probably not.

But it does seem to be a huge issue that we have these transfer players come in and take time away from the higher level recruits we bring it. It's helpful to fill needs with these transfers but I think there's a huge issue that the coach's don't see-- which is that of course a guy with experience like Jason Carter or Kyle Castlin can come in and practice better, be more mature, and be more prepared for D1 college basketball than an unpolished raw prospect like Miles, Keonte, Dontarius, etc. But the fact is the latter were all higher recruited for a reason. And the other fact is that since Xavier will NEVER get 5 star guys or blue chip one and dones that our best bet is to get solid, deep, recruiting classes--- some of which will develop soon and some which may not have a big impact until they are juniors/seniors.

This creates an ongoing problem because once we do this, half a freshman/sophomore recruiting class leaves and then we need to replace them with more transfers that are actually worse players in many cases. Get ready for a year or two from now when we're all clamoring that "we just need a shooter, a pure scorer!" when we just let Tandy walk who is a higher level version of that than we're going to get from Gardner-Webb or division II. Or in two years when we go, Zach is a great/treasured senior but he'd be so much better at the 4 with a true center down low....ya know, like 6'11 Deionte Miles who left two years ago. And so we'll get another low conference rebounder who comes to the big east and isn't quite as good as he was in the Ivy League or wherever he comes from. And will probably start over some 4 star freshman we recruit in 2024.

Anyway, I'm not sure how to reverse this other than just letting our young guys play next year and taking some lumps. Or hoping Steele pulls his head out of his ass and learns how to coach and LEAD people rather than just recruiting then basing everything on practice points.

In my opinion, I feel like the talent is there but the coaching is not.

[drudy23]

I've been thinking about this issue for a couple seasons and it was driven home again to me at the end of this season. Transfers consistently taking playing time from younger players whom we've recruited (for a reason) and are trying to develop has become a gigantic contributing factor to why we have not been as successful year over year. A poster in another thread also mentioned that our recruited freshmen are like 1st and 2nd round draft picks while transfers are like Waiver Wire pickups which also got me thinking...

First, please bear with me and give me the following assumptions/benefit of the doubt:

1. I KNOW transfers happen. Every year when transfers occur these boards light up ("Duh it's 2021 and we're getting 4 star recruits, tRaNsFeRs HaPpEn eVeRyWhErE!!"). I know this. I'm not saying we should never accept a transfer. I'm not saying I expect us to never have a player transfer.

2. The examples I use do not assume that any of the players who transferred away would have big all big east. I know some probably needed to transfer. I'm just using all the examples I see.

3. I know not all guys getting minutes played the exact same positions as guys that left. But just because Ryan Welage was a forward technically he was basically a spot up shooter and there are guards who could have played over them.

So here we go, working backwards...

2021: Likely losing Tandy, maybe Miles and maybe Ramsey (obviously for different reasons)--- at the expense of minutes for Jason Carter and to some degree nate johnson/adam kunkel (I'll touch on Nate Johnson later).

2020: Lost Dontarius James and Dahmir Bishop--- at the expense of minutes for Jason Carter and Bryce Moore.

2019: Lost Elias Harden and Keonte Kennedy --- at the expense of minutes for Ryan Welage and Kyle Castlin.

2018: No one lost that I can remember

2016/17: Lost Makinde London and Larry Austin--- at the expense of Rashid Gaston and Remy Abell

To my count that'll be somewhere between 7-9 out of 17 recruits that landed at Xavier since 2014 transferring out. Now, were Nate Johnson, Rashid Gaston, and Remy very important pick ups for one reason or another? Yes! Were all of the transfers out going to end up being huge impact players in the Big East? Probably not.

But it does seem to be a huge issue that we have these transfer players come in and take time away from the higher level recruits we bring it. It's helpful to fill needs with these transfers but I think there's a huge issue that the coach's don't see-- which is that of course a guy with experience like Jason Carter or Kyle Castlin can come in and practice better, be more mature, and be more prepared for D1 college basketball than an unpolished raw prospect like Miles, Keonte, Dontarius, etc. But the fact is the latter were all higher recruited for a reason. And the other fact is that since Xavier will NEVER get 5 star guys or blue chip one and dones that our best bet is to get solid, deep, recruiting classes--- some of which will develop soon and some which may not have a big impact until they are juniors/seniors.

This creates an ongoing problem because once we do this, half a freshman/sophomore recruiting class leaves and then we need to replace them with more transfers that are actually worse players in many cases. Get ready for a year or two from now when we're all clamoring that "we just need a shooter, a pure scorer!" when we just let Tandy walk who is a higher level version of that than we're going to get from Gardner-Webb or division II. Or in two years when we go, Zach is a great/treasured senior but he'd be so much better at the 4 with a true center down low....ya know, like 6'11 Deionte Miles who left two years ago. And so we'll get another low conference rebounder who comes to the big east and isn't quite as good as he was in the Ivy League or wherever he comes from. And will probably start over some 4 star freshman we recruit in 2024.

Anyway, I'm not sure how to reverse this other than just letting our young guys play next year and taking some lumps. Or hoping Steele pulls his head out of his ass and learns how to coach and LEAD people rather than just recruiting then basing everything on practice points.

Just posted this is another thread and saw this thread:

I also don't like his approach with transfers. There doesn't seem to be a plan with how they fit, they just start offering any and all decent transfers in the market.

That probably doesn't sit well with your recruits.

I know landing transfers is important in this day and age, but it just seems so random in terms of fit.

[xavierj]

I bet Xavier tries to land Jamison Battle from GW. 6’7” 225 SF. Avg. 17 and 5. 85% from the line and 36% from 3 over two years. I am sure he will be sought after by a lot of teams though.

[drudy23]

I bet Xavier tries to land Jamison Battle from GW. 6’7” 225 SF. Avg. 17 and 5. 85% from the line and 36% from 3 over two years. I am sure he will be sought after by a lot of teams though.

Can he score in the post? If not, we have plenty of that skill set.

[xavierj]

Can he score in the post? If not, we have plenty of that skill set.

Not sure but also not sure we have someone that size that shoots that well. From the line and the three. Definitely wouldn’t be able to pack the lane like they did Carter. If Carter shot like that we probably lose maybe 2 or 3 games.

[Xavier]

Can he score in the post? If not, we have plenty of that skill set.

I wouldn't say we have plenty of Wings that size that shoot well. If Travis really does want to go 4 guard line up, 6'7 shooter would be a good addition IMO.

[xuphan]

I bet Xavier tries to land Jamison Battle from GW. 6’7” 225 SF. Avg. 17 and 5. 85% from the line and 36% from 3 over two years. I am sure he will be sought after by a lot of teams though.

Can he play in the Big East though? We have had enough transfers who might be decent in the mid majors but aren’t at the Big East level.

[noteggs]

Not sure but also not sure we have someone that size that shoots that well. From the line and the three. Definitely wouldn’t be able to pack the lane like they did Carter. If Carter shot like that we probably lose maybe 2 or 3 games.

Even though it happened a lot during the season, but playing off Carter during the Butler was so so obvious and frustrating to watch. Nze was standing at least two feet inside the free throw line. Makes those drives by Odom even more impressive.

[markchal]

Can he play in the Big East though? We have had enough transfers who might be decent in the mid majors but aren’t at the Big East level.

to be fair, there's not a lot of transfers who are clear-cut high level guys, and there is a ton of competition for them. You gotta take some chances. Nate Johnson and Hankins worked, Bryce Moore and Castlin did not.

A better question is he better than what we have on the roster and can he do something different? That would be a yes, so why not be interested in the guy?

[xuphan]

to be fair, there's not a lot of transfers who are clear-cut high level guys, and there is a ton of competition for them. You gotta take some chances. Nate Johnson and Hankins worked, Bryce Moore and Castlin did not.

A better question is he better than what we have on the roster and can he do something different? That would be a yes, so why not be interested in the guy?

Steele will definitely be on the hot seat next year. He needs to hit on whatever transfers he brings into the program. He cannot afford to not make the NCAA tournament again in my opinion. In order for this team to make the NCAA tournament, he needs to pick up transfers who can compete in the Big East. Maybe this GW player is good enough but Steele does not have room for error when being in transfers.

[LOLmickcronin]

to be fair, there's not a lot of transfers who are clear-cut high level guys, and there is a ton of competition for them. You gotta take some chances. Nate Johnson and Hankins worked, Bryce Moore and Castlin did not.

A better question is he better than what we have on the roster and can he do something different? That would be a yes, so why not be interested in the guy?

Kind of my whole point of this post though is... is simply being a grad transfer who is slightly better than say a 4 star recruit sophomore on our roster? For sure if you bring in a transfer who has a totally different skill set than we need... but to just bring in an extra player that’s 5% better than one of our four year players we are trying to develop seems to be shooting us in the foot long term.