What is the ceiling for this years team?

[XUGRAD80]

The discussions on the Ramsey, Jones, and Butler game threads, in regards to lineups and rotations, for me thinking.....

Realistically speaking, what is the ceiling on this years team? What about next year?

Let’s assume they are going to make the Tourney. How far can they go? How far do you think they WILL go? I’d say that if they get favorable matchups and regain their shooting touch, it’s not inconceivable that they win a couple of games and make the S16. If they don’t, I can see a loss in the first round. (It could go either way, but I’d bet on the latter more than the former..just my opinion.)

So do they go for broke, cut the rotation down to 7-8 players and not put people like Tandy, Whilcher, Ramsey, etc on the floor the rest of the season? Or do they say, let’s play them all, give them all as much playing time as we can, cut back on starter minutes, and look to next year and beyond?

Go for broke this year? Or chuck it, play the younguns and look to the future?

Hmmmm.....I’m not sure what I would do if I was making that decision.

[GoMuskies]

The ceiling is whatever the hell happened in that Oklahoma game.

[Xavier]

Go for broke this year? Or chuck it, play the younguns and look to the future?

Hmmmm.....I’m not sure what I would do if I was making that decision.

Realistically speaking- Steele has to go for broke. I can see times you make decisions for the future and spend some time developing guys. Late in the third year and not a lock in the tournament, after missing previous two seasons, is hardly the time for developing talent.

As GoMuskie said- Ceiling is what happened in that Oklahoma game. Tournament can be wonky and I would imagine this year even more so. Find a way to get in and they have a team that can catch fire and make a big run.

[boozehound]

This is absolutely a team that can make a Finals run, but with like a 1% (or less) chance. We would need a whole tournament of everyone shooting like we did against Oklahoma, so that's obviously highly unlikely. We have enough shooters that we could get hot and to on a big time run. Lack of a true PG could kill us if we faced a team that pressed effectively though, even if our shooting was on.

[JTG]

I don't see much past a first round win. If the OK shooting returns, maybe a Sweet 16. On our current path, a second round game will be against a 1 seed. So get in, win a game, I'll consider the season a success. As for next year, there needs to be a lot of time in the weight room, or a ready to go transfer big.

[Xuperman]

If this team continues to shoot the 3 ball as displayed in the last 2 games, we will not get another W....period. There is no team other than a drastically hobbled Futler that we can beat shooting like that. It's just too much of what our current offense needs to win any game.

After watching last nights game twice, I just can't see us splitting these last four considering our only home game is CU.

[drudy23]

I think our "average" performance is near a .500 conference team.

We also have games that we look awesome and games that we look abysmal.

If we can make it into the tournament, and have one of our best games, I think we can make a Sweet 16. But it's a thin line between that and not even making it at all.

[markchal]

Lack of a true PG could kill us if we faced a team that pressed effectively though, even if our shooting was on.

I think this has never been less of an issue IMO. It's not like we're asking Naji to bring the ball up the floor like in years past. Odom, Scruggs and Jones can all bring the ball up the floor, along with Tandy, and Johnson/Kunkel are athletic enough to help.

The thing that would kill us is running into a team with a good big guy. Most teams will be better than us inside, but if faced with a dominant big, we'd get out-rebounded all night and torn up inside, leaving us w/ no inside scoring threat (with Free in likely foul trouble) and then chucking and praying.

Still, with the way we shoot, there's always a chance we get hot and steal a win. Like everyone has been saying, we did beat a top-15 team, and it wasn't even close (they didn't play bad, either).

[AviatorX]

I would be thrilled if this team won a first round game and feel that they have a puncher's chance against most team's they'd see in round 2.

[XU_Lou]

Realistically speaking- Steele has to go for broke. I can see times you make decisions for the future and spend some time developing guys. Late in the third year and not a lock in the tournament, after missing previous two seasons, is hardly the time for developing talent.

As GoMuskie said- Ceiling is what happened in that Oklahoma game. Tournament can be wonky and I would imagine this year even more so. Find a way to get in and they have a team that can catch fire and make a big run.

Good God, stop with the lie about missing the tournament last year! Everyone did, and the majority of bracketologists had X in the tourney.

[drudy23]

Good God, stop with the lie about missing the tournament last year! Everyone did, and the majority of bracketologists had X in the tourney.

Again, roughly half had X in the tourney prior to them losing the first game in the BET. No one updated brackets after that because everything was canceled. Also, no other top conferences even came close to finishing conference tournaments which would have also had an impact.

We weren't making it.

[Xville]

I’ve seen worse teams get hot and make final fours so I’ll say that. It would be improbable but nothing this year has made any sense so this might as well be the year Xavier breaks thru.

With that said, I think more realistically this team can win a game... just not consistent enough to go on a real run from what they have shown this year.

I said at the beginning of the year that if they just made the tourney, that would be a success and be extremely good for the very talented underclass men to gain some tourney experience

[XU_Lou]

Again, roughly half had X in the tourney prior to them losing the first game in the BET. No one updated brackets after that because everything was canceled. Also, no other top conferences even came close to finishing conference tournaments which would have also had an impact.

We weren't making it.

Fair point on the other conferences not playing, but according to the Cincy Enq article from March 13, the Bracket Matrix survey of final brackets was taken after the BE tourney. In other words, 52% of the brackets still included XU in the tourney at that point. To say that X was categorically out of the running for the tourney is not correct. I remember hearing several analysts saying that they believed X would've been in even if they lost to DePaul - depending on the number of upsets in other conf tourneys.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/college/xavier/2020/03/13/would-xavier-basketball-have-made-ncaa-tournament/5042653002/

http://bracketmatrix.com/matrix_2020.html

[AviatorX]

Again, roughly half had X in the tourney prior to them losing the first game in the BET. No one updated brackets after that because everything was canceled. Also, no other top conferences even came close to finishing conference tournaments which would have also had an impact.

We weren't making it.

I think I recall on the D&V podcast Mario mentioned that the spreadsheet they've used internally over the years to guide scheduling for getting a bid, seeding, etc. had them in so he felt confident. Definitely would have been close. Obviously doesn't matter and the end of last season on the court sucked either way.

[XUGRAD80]

I’ve seen worse teams get hot and make final fours so I’ll say that. It would be improbable but nothing this year has made any sense so this might as well be the year Xavier breaks thru.

With that said, I think more realistically this team can win a game... just not consistent enough to go on a real run from what they have shown this year.

I said at the beginning of the year that if they just made the tourney, that would be a success and be extremely good for the very talented underclass men to gain some tourney experience

Giving the underclassmen NCAA tourney experience is a very good point. One that really hadn’t occurred to me. I was considering only what experience they might get in the last 4-5 games of the regular season and BE tourney.

[bleedXblue]

Not very far. Max for me is round of 32.

[xuphan]

Not very far. Max for me is round of 32.

Depends on how much Steele grows as a coach by the end of the season. This team could be anywhere from a sweet 16 sleeper to not making the tournament at all with the players we have. Just depends on how Steele develops as a head coach and put the players and team in a position to win.

[XUGRAD80]

Depends on how much Steele grows as a coach by the end of the season. This team could be anywhere from a sweet 16 sleeper to not making the tournament at all with the players we have. Just depends on how Steele develops as a head coach and put the players and team in a position to win.

Can’t see him changing much in just a few weeks. Isn’t like we are talking about a couple of months down the road. Only 4 regular season games left and 1-3 BE tourney games. 3-4 weeks max before NCAA tourney starts. He’s pretty much what he is at this point, and remember this will be HIS first time going to the tourney as a head coach too.

[xuphan]

Can’t see him changing much in just a few weeks. Isn’t like we are talking about a couple of months down the road. Only 4 regular season games left and 1-3 BE tourney games. 3-4 weeks max before NCAA tourney starts. He’s pretty much what he is at this point, and remember this will be HIS first time going to the tourney as a head coach too.

You are probably right but part of me still hope he will learn from his mistakes and improve his coaching as a result of it.

[noteggs]

So what I’m hearing last year was a crap shoot to make the tournament? With this said, can’t say for certain we missed tournament the last two years. Facts maybe?

[markchal]

So what I’m hearing last year was a crap shoot to make the tournament? With this said, can’t say for certain we missed tournament the last two years. Facts maybe?

You can always find at least one "analyst" that will say what you want to hear regarding the tourney, but we were not gonna make it in after collapsing down the stretch and losing to DePaul (and we didn't deserve to either!).

Fans can play all the mental gymnastics they want, but last year sucked, and it's hard to find someone who will argue otherwise. The poster's point about going for broke this year makes sense, because Steele's seat IS getting hotter if he misses the tournament, and an NCAA tournament win (or two!), while unlikely, sure buys him a lot more leeway for the next couple years. So it makes sense to rely on your veterans and go as far as you can this year, rather than focusing on developing the younger guys to have more to build on for next year and beyond.

[XUGRAD80]

If this is go for broke time....and a lot of people seem to think it is....then that means the backups don’t get much playing time. So no complaining about not keeping players happy if your in the go for broke camp.

If it’s not....then no complaints if X plays everyone, tries different combinations, and loses games because of that, and misses the tournament.

You can’t have it both ways.

Can ya? :ok:


If it’s me.....I’d call the team together, tell them that we are going to play the top 7-8 guys only, that we are going to go all out to make the tourney, and that I’ll be looking at how guys respond in practice and on the bench. That I want people that can be good teammates and not just good individual players.

[xukeith]

Realistically speaking- Steele has to go for broke. I can see times you make decisions for the future and spend some time developing guys. Late in the third year and not a lock in the tournament, after missing previous two seasons, is hardly the time for developing talent.

As GoMuskie said- Ceiling is what happened in that Oklahoma game. Tournament can be wonky and I would imagine this year even more so. Find a way to get in and they have a team that can catch fire and make a big run.

The Oklahoma game had X shooting unbelievably BUT Oklahoma didn't play tough defense. Even Toledo and Eastern Kentucky played X tougher.
Jones, Wilcher and Odom remind us the next 2-3 years look strong. Add some strong interior and exterior shooting and add a sprinkle of hard nosed defense probably lands X around the #45-#35 teams. Whether Zack, Tandy, and Adam K can lead X to top 20 might be too steep a step. X needs more recruits in teh mold of Bluiett, Odom, and Scruggs.

[Xville]

If this is go for broke time....and a lot of people seem to think it is....then that means the backups don’t get much playing time. So no complaining about not keeping players happy if your in the go for broke camp.

If it’s not....then no complaints if X plays everyone, tries different combinations, and loses games because of that, and misses the tournament.

You can’t have it both ways.

Can ya? :ok:


If it’s me.....I’d call the team together, tell them that we are going to play the top 7-8 guys only, that we are going to go all out to make the tourney, and that I’ll be looking at how guys respond in practice and on the bench. That I want people that can be good teammates and not just good individual players.

Who is that though? I mean I dont think Steele even knows, and I don't think a lot of us can agree or know who that is.

I think everyone can agree on most:

Scruggs
Johnson
Free
Jones

The next 3-4 I think are widely up for a lot of debate. For me the next four are Tandy, Carter, Odom and Griffen. I can see a case for others like Kunkel, Wilcher, Ramsey (an unkown but who knows)

I think what is best for Steele and what is best for the overall program may be different things. In other words, I think it is probably best for Steele to play "veterans," but i think what is best for the program is getting the sophomores and freshman as much time as possible, because that is where I believe the majority of the talent is, and much higher ceilings. Plus, it is next year and the following where this program can get back to competing for a BE championship and a legitimate shot at a top 3 seed in the tourney and dare i say it, final four run. Those youngins need the experience

[xukeith]

So what I’m hearing last year was a crap shoot to make the tournament? With this said, can’t say for certain we missed tournament the last two years. Facts maybe?

True. Last year's team was 52% in after losing to DePaul according to bracketmatrix.com. We will never know if those projections were accurate or not.

This year, X is better BUT BE is worse. Only getting 3-4 teams in dance. X needs to not lose to Providence, Georgetown and Marquette and hopefully upset Creighton. One good thing this team is doing now as opposed to 2-4 weeks ago is actually practicing and adding more weapons with play calling. Hope they can get 50% up to speed by end of season then go to BE finals. I don't see this team winning 2 Tourney games. Many good teams have better interior strength that X cannot defend.

[XUGRAD80]

I think what is best for Steele and what is best for the overall program may be different things. In other words, I think it is probably best for Steele to play "veterans," but i think what is best for the program is getting the sophomores and freshman as much time as possible, because that is where I believe the majority of the talent is, and much higher ceilings. Plus, it is next year and the following where this program can get back to competing for a BE championship and a legitimate shot at a top 3 seed in the tourney and dare i say it, final four run. Those youngins need the experience

When I first put this thread up, that’s pretty much what I was thinking too. However, I’m looking at it a different way now. I think it’s correct to say that not anyone that will be on next years team has any NCAA tournament experience. Even Steele has no experience there in the role of head coach. Going into NEXT year, and the tournament at the end of that season, I think that tournament experience is going to be more valuable than getting the returning players a few more minutes of regular season playing time over the next couple of weeks this year.

[JTG]

True. Last year's team was 52% in after losing to DePaul according to bracketmatrix.com. We will never know if those projections were accurate or not.

This year, X is better BUT BE is worse. Only getting 3-4 teams in dance. X needs to not lose to Providence, Georgetown and Marquette and hopefully upset Creighton. One good thing this team is doing now as opposed to 2-4 weeks ago is actually practicing and adding more weapons with play calling. Hope they can get 50% up to speed by end of season then go to BE finals. I don't see this team winning 2 Tourney games. Many good teams have better interior strength that X cannot defend.

Are you saying we need to win the last four ? I would think 2-2 would put us in decent shape, and a win in the BE Tournment would make us a lock.

[markchal]

Are you saying we need to win the last four ? I would think 2-2 would put us in decent shape, and a win in the BE Tournment would make us a lock.

agreed, 2-2 and we're in. This team could just as easily go 0-4. It took buzzer beaters to beat Marq and Prov at home, Creighton is probably just better than us, and I think Gtown just beat Seton Hall, so they aren't a complete pushover. This team could also go 3-1 though, who knows

[boozehound]

agreed, 2-2 and we're in. This team could just as easily go 0-4. It took buzzer beaters to beat Marq and Prov at home, Creighton is probably just better than us, and I think Gtown just beat Seton Hall, so they aren't a complete pushover. This team could also go 3-1 though, who knows

It's all going to come down to shooting, I think. If we continue to shoot the 3 poorly we might be lucky to finish 1-3. If we can start shooting at a respectable clip 2-2 or 3-1 are very much in play. If we go white-hot we could go 4-1. If I had to guess / bet I would probably take the copout and say 2-2.

[drudy23]

Would be really nice to beat Creighton to provide some further breathing room.

[noteggs]

You can always find at least one "analyst" that will say what you want to hear regarding the tourney, but we were not gonna make it in after collapsing down the stretch and losing to DePaul (and we didn't deserve to either!).

Fans can play all the mental gymnastics they want, but last year sucked, and it's hard to find someone who will argue otherwise.

True, but not my point. There was 100% chance we wouldn’t make the tournament because there was no tournament which is a fact. I too believe we were on the outside looking in, but can’t count that as fact because it’s only an opinion.

Theoretically, DePaul and others still playing in conference tournaments could’ve said they would’ve made the tournament if they had a chance to finish. What would’ve happened if DePaul went on to win BET? Would that increase our chances?

Yes extremely far fetched, but it continues with the what if’s (mental gymnastics as you put it), but not based on facts. Bottom line - there is no definitive way we can say we would’ve or wouldn't made the tournament.

And yes we sucked especially towards the end of the season. So I agree with you.

[xukeith]

Are you saying we need to win the last four ? I would think 2-2 would put us in decent shape, and a win in the BE Tournment would make us a lock.

If X goes 3-1 (1 loss vs. Creighton) then X INMO might be a 9 10 or 11 seed.
If X goes 2-2 and loses opening game in BE, then X is out.
right now, VU, CU, XU and maybe Seton Hall are in. Either teams play themselves in or play themselves out. Need 1 -2 more Quad 1 and 2 wins.

[drudy23]

There was 100% chance we wouldn’t make the tournament because there was no tournament which is a fact.

Yeah, we get it.

But that doesn't just erase the average season and the crappy finish.

[Tardy Turtle]

https://i.ibb.co/Vqpqj19/ceiling.jpg

[drudy23]

https://i.ibb.co/Vqpqj19/ceiling.jpg

What exactly are we looking at here?

[GoMuskies]

What exactly are we looking at here?

The ceiling

[noteggs]

Yeah, we get it.

But that doesn't just erase the average season and the crappy finish.

And yes, I get that