Early Observations

[MHettel]

5-0 is beautiful!

18 point margin of victory is beautiful!

Watching this team....is....well....did I mention 5-0?

Ok, a few observations

1. FT attempts per game since 2010: 24.9, 23.6, 22.8, 21.1, 22.6, 20.9, 25.2, 23.2, 24.1, 18.4, 18.4. THIS YEAR- 16.2

2. 3PT attempts per game since 2010: 19.0, 16.4, 13.9, 12.9, 14.7, 18.0, 20.6, 20.4, 21.0, 21.1, 20.8. THIS YEAR- 21.8

So, the downtick in FTA is a concerning item for me. The last 3 years have seen the lowest amount of FTAs over a 12 year period, with this year coming in 12% lower than our previous low. I THOUGH the trend might just be related to taking more 3s and going to the rack less, but really the 3PT attempts have been really consistent for 6 years in a row. Lets check 2PT shots...

3. 2 PT attempt per game since 2010: 40.5, 36.7, 41.3, 38.1, 39.7, 36.4, 39.8, 36.1, 37.7, 35.3, 39. THIS YEAR- 41.0

OK, so we are putting up the 2nd most amount of 2 pt shots in 12 years. We are shooting 58% from 2. The highest prior shooting percentage was 49.2!

I don't know if it's just that we have a few solid 2 point jumpshooters, or maybe our bigs are just overwhelming the relatively weak opposition....and not getting fouled.

But what I cannot measure with stats, but can SEE with my eyes is that we don't have many guys that slash effectively. Tandy settled in as a 3 point specialist last year, and looked the same way early this year, but has since increased his driving.

on a per 40 minutes basis Tandy is pretty much taking the same about of 3s (8.2) as he did last year (8.1) and has only increased his 2 pt attempts by 1 per 40 minutes (6.8 vs. 5.7). but in fact his FTA per 40 has increased to a respectable 6.2, up from (a weak) 1.7 last year. He GOTTA be our guy that goes to the rim.

Odom is averaging 1.1 FTA per 40 minutes, so he's got a LOOOOONNNNGGGG way to go before he reaches TU Holloway status. (Brad Redford averaged 1.4 FTA per 40 for perspective). I want to see Odom go to the rack. We know he's got the explosiveness, and now he just needs to seek contact.

Johnson has been good in general, but he's not gonna live at the line. His high at GW was 3.5 per 40. He's at 2.1 this year.

Carter got to the line 7.4 per 40 as a Soph at OU, and he's at 2.8 this year after 2.3 last year. I like his all around game, but finishing doesn't seem to be his strong suit. Not sure if we can expect more...

Free is at 3.7 per 40, up barely from last years 3.5. I hope to see him develop into a Sean O'Mara scorer with better range and playing more minutes. O'Mara averaged 5.8 FTA per 40 in his career.

Scruggs has increase to 4.3 FTA per 40 from 3.0 last year. I think he need to creep that up further to 5.5+ in order to exploit his talents. he's a decent driver, and that post fadeaway should be dangerous if he can add a little up and under.

Jones and Wilcher seem to be unknows, but for now my expectations are tempered. I don't see where the minutes would come from, and I think Wilcher is mostly a shooter.

Anyway, the number 1 observable improvement this team can make is getting to the line at a higher rate. I don't even care if they make them (well, of course I care but I'm really more interested in GETTING to the line as a show of aggressiveness and of course opponent Foul trouble).

I'm feeling like a lot of other pieces are in place. Our Rebounding, Assist, Steals and Blocks per game are ALL ranked #1 over the last 12 years. Did you know that? And our Fouls per game are the LOWEST over the last 12 years.

Our 3Pty shooting 33.9% would rank us 8 in the last 12 years. Not a strength, but better than last year.

This team has a lot of potential. We have one glaring weakness. GET TO THE LINE, BOYS!

[MHettel]

By the way, Bryan Griffin, who will remain named as such needs to take his "grown ass man" frame and do something with it.

2.0 Free Throw attempts per 40 minutes.

ahem, Snipe?

[XUGRAD80]

It would be my guess that early season games tend to be called a little more loosely than later season games. I haven’t seen many games yet this year where the teams lived at the FT line, so I don’t think that most refs are calling the games really close....yet. Could change as we get later into the year.

Also keep in mind that Xavier is playing an open-post offense this year. They lack a real “post” player and are going to rely more on movement and quickness, less on power and bulk. Getting to the line less is a by-product of that style of play.

[xukeith]

By the way, Bryan Griffin, who will remain named as such needs to take his "grown ass man" frame and do something with it.

2.0 Free Throw attempts per 40 minutes.

ahem, Snipe?

I love math. Free points are the best. Holloway leaves deep shoes.

[Masterofreality]

So, is it any coincidence that the last 3 years have seen the lowest free throw average per game in that 12 year time frame? No. That is a direct result of Steeles offense that sets hardly any screens for pick and rolls or back door cuts. It also is the result of big guys not being under the basket when many of our outside shots go up. I’d like to see a stat as to Xavier’s offensive rebounds per game in the last 3 years vs prior. No rebounds and you can’t get fouled on stick backs.
See, this was a major part of my criticism of Steele over the last two years. He didn't have shooters, as per everyone who is on this board, but he hard-headedly ran the same offense that never got guys close to the basket and free-throws suffered. Hence my contention that the roster over the last two years was misused and under utilized.

We used to have an important goal- to make more Free Throws than the other team attempts. That is out the window and to our detriment. We barely beat 3 mid-major mediocre teams. Just like last year, I blame schematics.

Thankfully we have better shooters, and maybe it will change with Colby & CJ, but our lack of getting to the rack will hurt us in the long run.

[Xavier]

Attack the rim- get to the FT line and win games that way. It was all fine and well until the calls didn't come. Tu (love him) would try to get fouled every drive. It really did hurt us in the tournament when refs swallow whistles more.

To be honest it doesn't really look that much different than what Steele is doing. Two things that stick out that are different- Mack had the shooters (scorers) and Mack is one of the top coaches designing plays out of Time outs. Always felt like a bucket was coming. Outside of that the offense doesn't look much different to me. I think KyKY has a great ability driving (his pull ups are very good) and Odom reminds me a lot of lyns- he will be able to get to the rim at will soon.

[MHettel]

It also is the result of big guys not being under the basket when many of our outside shots go up. I’d like to see a stat as to Xavier’s offensive rebounds per game in the last 3 years vs prior. No rebounds and you can’t get fouled on stick backs.



Here you go MOR

OREBS per game since 2010: 12.7, 10.3, 10.5, 10.6, 11.1, 9.8, 12.8, 11.9, 9.7, 10.6, 11.9 THIS YEAR: 10.4

So, I don't really see anything too compelling here. The last 3 years under Steele look pretty typical in the context of the 12 years of data.

Another way to look at it is by taking a ratio of ORebs vs. Opponent DRebs. So basically, who is getting the rebound when we miss a shot.

Since 2010: 35.2%, 32.4%, 31.3%, 34.3%, 34.1%, 31.3%, 35.2%, 34.5%, 29.9%, 32.2%, 32.2% THIS YEAR: 30.6%

Again, not seeing anything too compelling.

I'm sticking to the theory that we aren't driving and seeking contact.

One thing that could contribute is the FTs at the end of a game to close out. But really those only happen in wins that are pretty tight, but not too tight, down the stretch.

[Masterofreality]

Thanks Hett!

[xu82]

So, is it any coincidence that the last 3 years have seen the lowest free throw average per game in that 12 year time frame? No. That is a direct result of Steeles offense that sets hardly any screens for pick and rolls or back door cuts. It also is the result of big guys not being under the basket when many of our outside shots go up. I’d like to see a stat as to Xavier’s offensive rebounds per game in the last 3 years vs prior. No rebounds and you can’t get fouled on stick backs.
See, this was a major part of my criticism of Steele over the last two years. He didn't have shooters, as per everyone who is on this board, but he hard-headedly ran the same offense that never got guys close to the basket and free-throws suffered. Hence my contention that the roster over the last two years was misused and under utilized.

We used to have an important goal- to make more Free Throws than the other team attempts. That is out the window and to our detriment. We barely beat 3 mid-major mediocre teams. Just like last year, I blame schematics.

Thankfully we have better shooters, and maybe it will change with Colby & CJ, but our lack of getting to the rack will hurt us in the long run.


So, is it safe to assume that Steele is not on your Christmas card list?

[Masterofreality]

Never “Assume”
You know the rest.

[JEHARDI]

Thanks Hett!

Did you actually look at the stats he shared. OREB”s last year of 11.9 were as good or better than any year since 2011, kind of blows up the point you were trying to make. But keep showing your dislike of Steele is deeper than your knowledge of the game.

[MHettel]

Did you actually look at the stats he shared. OREB”s last year of 11.9 were as good or better than any year since 2011, kind of blows up the point you were trying to make. But keep showing your dislike of Steele is deeper than your knowledge of the game.

I think MOR was literally just thanking me for providing the stats that led to the answer to his question.

You may be a little jumpy when it comes to defending Steele????

[JEHARDI]

Not at all, clearly Steele has a lot to prove but the last 2 years we simply did not have well constructed teams given the way the game is played today. This year and next are the key for Steele.

[DexterBailey84]

Uh, speaking of early observations, has anyone else taken notice of how stacked Marquette is this year? Woj has some serious talent at his disposal, it'll be interesting to see how they fair in-conference by the time it's all said and done. They're a good looking team, IMO.

[xu82]

Not at all, clearly Steele has a lot to prove but the last 2 years we simply did not have well constructed teams given the way the game is played today. This year and next are the key for Steele.

Amen! Let’s not be the Browns, let’s give guys a chance. We need to build the roster, and the coach, quite frankly, is growing into the job. I’m OK with that. Jay Wright today is better than the Jay Wright from 10-15 years ago. Would you want to have dumped him? Get over it today, let’s see how it goes.

Belichick got canned by the Browns, for God’s sake! Give guys a chance. I like our direction in terms of talent, let’s see it play out. Geez!

[XUGRAD80]

Not at all, clearly Steele has a lot to prove but the last 2 years we simply did not have well constructed teams given the way the game is played today. This year and next are the key for Steele.

Agreed. The roster lacked quality guards in an era where guard play has become most important. He now has a much deeper pool of talent there, but it is for the most part young and unproven talent. it appears that Tandy has the shooting skill needed to be very good, but still is inexperienced and not great defensively. Odom appears to be the real deal in many ways, but needs to develop his outside shooting. Jones and Wilcher are still unknowns, and are still just freshman with no game experience yet. While Kunkel comes to X with a great reputation as a quality outside shooter, how about the rest of his game? We don't know yet. Johnson looks really good in the early tests, but is only here for a year. Still, this is a much deeper and better quality group than X has had for the last 2 years. Will be fun to watch them develop.

[Snipe]

By the way, Bryan Griffin, who will remain named as such needs to take his "grown ass man" frame and do something with it.

2.0 Free Throw attempts per 40 minutes.

ahem, Snipe?

I will give you a pass, because you did reference the grown ass man.

I like your analysis. I also had a feeling that something is wrong with the number of free throws that we are drawing.

Free throws are awesome, and fouls are awesome too. You can get some of these punks out of the game, espescially if we can have a team that goes a legitimate 10 deep. Then the game is to get those short bench teams in trouble. We don't go at players who have a foul to get them to two and get them on the bench either. That is a tried and true tactic. I remember the senior Stanley Burrell going after the Freshman sensation at Indiana and taking him out of the first half with his second foul. He was clapping when he drew that foul because he knew their secret weapon was gonna ride the pine. We used to use this quite effectively, and it seems like a lost art.

MOR is a grumpy ass, and he might not have it all right, but something has changed. Your analysis points the same way. We used to be more effective drawing fouls and gettting to the line, and that seems like a stronger and sounder strategy. I like your numbers MHET

As for our young point guard, I wouldn't mind if he was fouling out of games along with drawing a lot more fouls. Use that explosivness and get it done. Get them in foul trouble or get in trouble a bit trying and learn from your mistakes. We need people slashing to the hoop, getting fouled or dishing off and people taking it to the rack with a passion. We need to be at the line more. We have shooters that can knock down free throws, but they have to get to the line.

I think you are brilliant.

[X-Expert]

This is a GREAT post thank you. My only question on the rebounding is the rebounding margin. I believe X's biggest challenge is on the interior. Part of that is the offense that Steele has chosen with four in but X has no answers for a true big. Hopeful that Stanley can play.

[Snipe]

Was thinking about this thread today late in the game when we were driving the lane and picking up fouls and getting them in foul trouble. It really needs to be a strength that we concentrate on. Odom came alive down the stretch and made some big plays just taking it to the hoop. Loved it.

Getting back to basics like this is needed.

[XUGRAD80]

This roster is DEEP and talented!