3/4 Check In: Paul Scruggs

[MHettel]

Ok, I did the "Career Wrap" for Q, Naji and Tyrique.

I wasn't sure if I would need to do one for Paul. I'm glad I'm not. And I didn't plan on doing THIS until he decided to come back.

But, I MUST know where Paul stands among the his XU Player peers in various metrics before he embarks on his final year.

Player Rankings

Various Categories...

Minutes per Game: 19 of 59
FGA per Minute: 27 of 59
FG %: 36 of 80
3Pt%: 23 of 48
3PA as % of shots rank: 30 of 48
3PT Attempts per Minute: 22 of 33
2PT%: 29 of 80
2PT per Minute: 33 of 59
FTA per Minute: 44 of 59
FT%: 31 of 80
FT as % of Points: 67 of 80

Pause: Ok. Put all of these pieces together to see what we have. A guy that can shoot from deep, and does fairly often, but not really disproportionally to the rest of his shots. He takes a fair amount of 2's and shoots well from there. He shoots pretty often (slightly above average). But he doesn't get to the line. But when he does he is pretty good making the freebies.

How Does Paul Improve here?- Don't force more 3's. He might make more, but don't TAKE more at the expense of the shooting %. But, drive a little more and get to the line. His midrange and Fadeaway game is already tight. Don't mess with that. But DO ramp up the drives and see if he can finish more or better yet draw a few more fouls. Upside in his offensive game.

In terms of other thing she does...

Rebs per minute: 38 of 59
ORebs per Minute: 38 of 55
DReb per Minute: 34 of 55

Pause: I don't think Paul can be a great rebounder, but he can be better than Welage (#35), Bernard (#36), Castlin (#35), Bluiett (#32), Justin Matin (#30), Crawford (#37)...you get the idea. I think we may see him playing more time at the 3 next year, and I can see his length and being a little closer to the basket as an advantage. I expect his senior RPG to far exceed his career average of just under 4....

Assists per Minute: 10 of 59
TO per Minute: 52 of 58
Assist to TO: 25 of 60
Steals per Minute: 17 of 59
Blocks per Minute: 30 of 59

Pause: Aside from the turnovers (HELP!), pretty solid here, especially for a guy that wasn't the full time ballhandler, and for practical purposes was #3 Ballhandler for 2 of his 3 years behind Q and Naji. AND considering who the heck he was on the floor with, I'm shocked that he was on the passing end of so many made buckets. we were a brick factory and he's STILL 10th in assist per minute? As the 3rd ballhandler....I like that. Steal and blocks were very solid given his position.

How does Paul improve here?- I assume Paul will find some minutes at the 3, and if all goes well, will not be expected to play PG. He will still get his touches and can distribute at a high rate. I can see his TO going down as his ball handling duties reduce, and hopefully he's not facing as many thieves on the perimeter. I can see Paul as a solid perimeter defender against both 2's and 3's causing disruption that results in turnovers of every variety. I see Paul contributing in ways that result in more turnovers, although maybe not steals that hit his stat line. when guarding opposing 3's, they better not drive or he'll get a bunch of blocks from behind. he could make a living off of giving them that first step and just swatting their crap.

Other things....

Turnovers per Minute: 52 of 58
Fouls per Minute: 36 of 58

Pause: Ok, Paul isn't a PG. I thought Maybe he could be. but yeah, no. He's gotta play off the ball, but he's a GREAT option there as a 2nd or 3rd ballhandler. I think more minutes at the 2 or 3 will result in some more efficient drives to the hoop and less strips and spin move turnovers. A bigger court due to more shooters and better spacing will help here too. I expect a drastic cutdown in turnovers. And basically he's gotta foul less. We MIGHT have the depth to withstand some foul trouble, but we WANT Scruggs on the court, not his backup.

Conclusion: the 20-21 team will go as far as Paul Scruggs takes it. He's got a BUNCH of passengers with him, but he's the pilot. Carter, Free, & Tandy are known commodities. Miles could be a gem. 3 Freshmen and 2 transfers coming in, and history tells me that we can count on 2 or 3 of those guys being contributors.

This is Scruggs year. Lets see how he moves up in these rankings.




STAT: Paul has taken 300 3Pt shots. The EXACT same number as Gates did. Who made more?....Paul 109 vs 107.

[Lloyd Braun]

Paul is a PG, and I think he will embrace the role. Next year when you recap his stats it will look very different.

[sirthought]

I think coach will have him at the PG spot more than you'll like. And he will improve in that role.

He might not be a natural PG, but Scruggs wants to play pro and at his size PG is his best opportunity. I'd guess he would not be returning if he couldn't have another season to prove himself at the PG position. I think he wants to be a leader on the floor and direct how the team sets up plays. Now's his chance to prove it.

[Jumpin_Jamal_Forever]

Gentlemen----I get where you are coming from thinking Scruggs is best suited to play P.G. And, for the record, i was one who strongly supported moving him to the "one" in the wake of Q's meltdown this past season.

But, I didn't see Scruggs play the point effectively. His ball handling was suspect, at times. I don't recall him being able to create shots for others and for some reason I cannot explain, when he took the ball to the rack, it was he who ended up getting called for a foul rather than his defender. He is, to me, a more natural "two" even if his height, at any potential next level, makes him too small for that position.

I also don't remember him being effective at creating his own shot----correct me if you saw otherwise. And, that is why, I think, he had a tendency to disappear in some games. I don't minimize the lack of team play in those disappearances. I saw the comment from a poster that Naji moving on might be "addition by subtraction" and I think that could be a big benefit to Scruggs.

Don't get me wrong. I like Scruggs a lot. I just think he needs to play with a ball handling penetrating point guard (my God, I hope that's Odom!) and, of course, he's not the only player that would so benefit. Q seemed to do that his first two years and i, like many others on this board, am mystified by his remarkable regression. Thankfully, that is now behind us and this program can move on and (hopefully) climb back to being one of college hoop's most respected programs. We really need Scruggs to lead us next year. But, I just don't see him doing it at P.G.

[bleedXblue]

Gentlemen----I get where you are coming from thinking Scruggs is best suited to play P.G. And, for the record, i was one who strongly supported moving him to the "one" in the wake of Q's meltdown this past season.

But, I didn't see Scruggs play the point effectively. His ball handling was suspect, at times. I don't recall him being able to create shots for others and for some reason I cannot explain, when he took the ball to the rack, it was he who ended up getting called for a foul rather than his defender. He is, to me, a more natural "two" even if his height, at any potential next level, makes him too small for that position.

I also don't remember him being effective at creating his own shot----correct me if you saw otherwise. And, that is why, I think, he had a tendency to disappear in some games. I don't minimize the lack of team play in those disappearances. I saw the comment from a poster that Naji moving on might be "addition by subtraction" and I think that could be a big benefit to Scruggs.

Don't get me wrong. I like Scruggs a lot. I just think he needs to play with a ball handling penetrating point guard (my God, I hope that's Odom!) and, of course, he's not the only player that would so benefit. Q seemed to do that his first two years and i, like many others on this board, am mystified by his remarkable regression. Thankfully, that is now behind us and this program can move on and (hopefully) climb back to being one of college hoop's most respected programs. We really need Scruggs to lead us next year. But, I just don't see him doing it at P.G.

All of this is correct. Paul can play PG, he just isn't an ideal one for all of the reasons above. I think he starts there next year and hopefully Odom can emerge as the guy to allow Paul to shift over to the 2 and 3. I honestly don't care at all about Scruggs "development" at PG for his future NBA aspirations. He isn't an NBA player. He's a nice college player and might have some potential to play overseas. It's time for Steele to quit the coddling and play guys where they can help Xavier win games. It's the program first. Pleasing individuals has not worked out very well and caused some of the issues that have hampered the program the last 2 years.

[Muskie]

Paul is going to play PG, likely starting the season there. As Odom and Tandy develop it will free him up to play somewhere else on the floor. Just my two cents.

[chico]

Gentlemen----I get where you are coming from thinking Scruggs is best suited to play P.G. And, for the record, i was one who strongly supported moving him to the "one" in the wake of Q's meltdown this past season.

But, I didn't see Scruggs play the point effectively. His ball handling was suspect, at times. I don't recall him being able to create shots for others and for some reason I cannot explain, when he took the ball to the rack, it was he who ended up getting called for a foul rather than his defender. He is, to me, a more natural "two" even if his height, at any potential next level, makes him too small for that position.

I also don't remember him being effective at creating his own shot----correct me if you saw otherwise. And, that is why, I think, he had a tendency to disappear in some games. I don't minimize the lack of team play in those disappearances. I saw the comment from a poster that Naji moving on might be "addition by subtraction" and I think that could be a big benefit to Scruggs.

Don't get me wrong. I like Scruggs a lot. I just think he needs to play with a ball handling penetrating point guard (my God, I hope that's Odom!) and, of course, he's not the only player that would so benefit. Q seemed to do that his first two years and i, like many others on this board, am mystified by his remarkable regression. Thankfully, that is now behind us and this program can move on and (hopefully) climb back to being one of college hoop's most respected programs. We really need Scruggs to lead us next year. But, I just don't see him doing it at P.G.

I think he'll have a penetrating guard in Tandy, though Tandy hopefully won't be playing the point. We saw flashes last year of how well Tandy can drive to the hoop. I have a feeling we'll see more of that when teams guard the 3 more than the drive.

[MHettel]

Paul is going to play PG, likely starting the season there. As Odom and Tandy develop it will free him up to play somewhere else on the floor. Just my two cents.

Well, I think Paul's versatility is certainly a PLUS part of his game and you very well may be right that he plays some PG early until we see how quickly Odom catches on.

BUT, I think Paul slots in nicely into the SF spot next year, assuming Odom can start at PG. Tandy at the 2. Carter and Free up front. So now, arguably 2 good shooters on the perimeter and 2 bigs that CAN step out and hit a 3. That's IDEAL for Odom, since he's kinda weak from outside and he can penetrate with a spread floor. Tandy can play backup PG and then Paul can slide to the 2. Freshmen, Transfers, Ramsey and Miles can all battle for the backup minutes at the 3,4,5 and maybe steal a few backcourt minutes from the Odom, Tandy, Scruggs trio.

Overall, I see Scruggs at the 2 for about 10 minutes a game, and about 20 minutes at the 3.

Getting back to the STATS, keep in mind that Scruggs had the 52nd worst turnover per minute rate out of 58 former players. And he WASNT the PG most of the time (Goodin was 48th), and we had Naji (57th) who was ball dominant as well.

Scruggs turned the ball over more per minute than: Sumner (51), Hawkins (50), Holloway (49), Goodin (48)…….Lots of guys that played ONLY PG.

WEIRD OBSERVATION: Back to Goodin (48), Scruggs (52) and Naji (57) as obviously a turnover prone trio....it's interesting to me that the 3 LEAST turnover prone players were Welage (1), Moore (2), and Castlin (3). Is it a coincidence that all 6 of these guys played during the last 2 years?

[Xuperman]

Look y'all...the fact he's coming back is all we need to be orgasmic.

I say with Scruggy, we are FF4 material..

I LOVE X.
:tomatoes:

[whopper]

WEIRD OBSERVATION: Back to Goodin (48), Scruggs (52) and Naji (57) as obviously a turnover prone trio....it's interesting to me that the 3 LEAST turnover prone players were Welage (1), Moore (2), and Castlin (3). Is it a coincidence that all 6 of these guys played during the last 2 years?[/QUOTE]
The most efficient game I saw us play the last 2 years was senior day 2019 v St Johns, and Welage, Moore and Hankins has the last 19 point is a must win game (Naj out) that was 61-59 with 7 min left. I think Q and Scruggs were other 2 in) that had us miss play in game and go 500 in Big East. I actually saved that DVR and noticed that the 3 transfers did not just defer to the incumbents, but actually looked for each other, spaced floor, picked for each other and got clean look after clean look. A treat to watch

[Muskie]

Well, I think Paul's versatility is certainly a PLUS part of his game and you very well may be right that he plays some PG early until we see how quickly Odom catches on.

BUT, I think Paul slots in nicely into the SF spot next year, assuming Odom can start at PG. Tandy at the 2. Carter and Free up front. So now, arguably 2 good shooters on the perimeter and 2 bigs that CAN step out and hit a 3. That's IDEAL for Odom, since he's kinda weak from outside and he can penetrate with a spread floor. Tandy can play backup PG and then Paul can slide to the 2. Freshmen, Transfers, Ramsey and Miles can all battle for the backup minutes at the 3,4,5 and maybe steal a few backcourt minutes from the Odom, Tandy, Scruggs trio.

Overall, I see Scruggs at the 2 for about 10 minutes a game, and about 20 minutes at the 3.

Getting back to the STATS, keep in mind that Scruggs had the 52nd worst turnover per minute rate out of 58 former players. And he WASNT the PG most of the time (Goodin was 48th), and we had Naji (57th) who was ball dominant as well.

Scruggs turned the ball over more per minute than: Sumner (51), Hawkins (50), Holloway (49), Goodin (48)…….Lots of guys that played ONLY PG.

WEIRD OBSERVATION: Back to Goodin (48), Scruggs (52) and Naji (57) as obviously a turnover prone trio....it's interesting to me that the 3 LEAST turnover prone players were Welage (1), Moore (2), and Castlin (3). Is it a coincidence that all 6 of these guys played during the last 2 years?

Oh I agree. He belongs at the 3 (or maybe the 4 in some situations depending on match-ups. He's crazy long). I think it's rare that a Freshman comes in and runs the point from day one. I'm excited about Odom, but he hasn't dribbled single ball yet for X.

[AviatorX]

How is turnovers per minute a helpful stat for pure role players like Welage, Moore and Castlin? Or anyone for that matter as opposed to TO Rate?

Don't disagree with the conclusion - Scruggs obviously turns the ball over wayyyy too much - but of course those three guys are going to rate well in turnovers per minute, they barely have the opportunity to do anything with the ball (especially Welage).

[MHettel]

How is turnovers per minute a helpful stat for pure role players like Welage, Moore and Castlin? Or anyone for that matter as opposed to TO Rate?

Don't disagree with the conclusion - Scruggs obviously turns the ball over wayyyy too much - but of course those three guys are going to rate well in turnovers per minute, they barely have the opportunity to do anything with the ball (especially Welage).

Well, it could indicate how often the ball is in their hands. And could indicate how often they turn it over when the have it.

All the guys that turned the ball over a lot were also the guys that handled it a lot. The "bottom" of the ranking is littered with PGs. I look for anomalies in these rankings. CJ Anderson was 53rd in TO per minute. didn't expect to see that, but we DID feed him pretty often down low. Brandon Cole was 55th. I don't remember him playing too much and it didn't seem like we made a point to feed him down low, maybe he just had bad hands... And Jalen Reynolds was 33rd, but my impression of him was that he had stone hands....but apparently not. Jason Love was 26th. makes sense, to me. Philmore was 12th? Never realized that.

There are no "answers" with any of these stats. But they can feed a theory or confirm a suspicion.

by the way, #4 on the list was Gates, who ALSO played with these guys. I just think that maybe the trio in question may have been freezing some of the grad transfers out. We all lament the production of Moore and Castlin, but they never got the ball. Welage was just catch and shoot. I understand his ranking...

[bleedXblue]

Look y'all...the fact he's coming back is all we need to be orgasmic.

I say with Scruggy, we are FF4 material..

I LOVE X.
:tomatoes:

Final 4? Yeah ok.

[AviatorX]

Well, it could indicate how often the ball is in their hands. And could indicate how often they turn it over when the have it.

All the guys that turned the ball over a lot were also the guys that handled it a lot. The "bottom" of the ranking is littered with PGs. I look for anomalies in these rankings. CJ Anderson was 53rd in TO per minute. didn't expect to see that, but we DID feed him pretty often down low. Brandon Cole was 55th. I don't remember him playing too much and it didn't seem like we made a point to feed him down low, maybe he just had bad hands... And Jalen Reynolds was 33rd, but my impression of him was that he had stone hands....but apparently not. Jason Love was 26th. makes sense, to me. Philmore was 12th? Never realized that.

There are no "answers" with any of these stats. But they can feed a theory or confirm a suspicion.

by the way, #4 on the list was Gates, who ALSO played with these guys. I just think that maybe the trio in question may have been freezing some of the grad transfers out. We all lament the production of Moore and Castlin, but they never got the ball. Welage was just catch and shoot. I understand his ranking...

Not surprised Gates is #4. I'm guessing Redford is high as well? I don't disagree with your premise, but with that particular stat guys that aren't asked to do much are going to be on top. Moore, Castlin, Welage, etc. were specifically brought in to be low usage role guys. It would have been interesting to see Kaiser's role his senior year, I'll admit, but if he was good enough to be in a position where he was turning the ball over, he'd probably be in the NBA. Instead, he was basically a catch and shoot guy who never took that next step.

TO Rate is the stat you're looking for. That's what indicates how often a player turns it over when they have it. Moore and Castlin were both pretty middle of the road.

[xu82]

Paul is going to play PG, likely starting the season there. As Odom and Tandy develop it will free him up to play somewhere else on the floor. Just my two cents.

This is how I see it as well, fwiw.

[Xuperman]

Look y'all...the fact he's coming back is all we need to be orgasmic.

I say with Scruggy, we are FF4 material..

I LOVE X.
:tomatoes:

I never do this re-posting...BUT PAUL SCRUGGS RETURNING is a dream come true......WoW!!