Xpectations
02-20-2020, 12:23 PM
I posted this on the 247 board and thought I'd share it here...
X fans are salty we’re even close to being a bubble team this late in the season—on message boards, Twitter, Facebook, at home games, etc.
Some have called for Steele’s firing. Some believe we’ve finally whiffed on a coaching hire—even though they were just as convinced that was the case with Miller and Mack.
Those folks longed for the good old days under Mack. Ahhh, you remember, all those years we were a lock and didn’t have to worry about “the bubble.”
I recall those seasons too. Except I didn’t remember how poorly I recalled them—until today.
After all, it sure doesn’t currently feel like that in 4 of Mack’s final 7 seasons at the helm, Xavier ended the regular season in early March either dangerously teetering on the bubble to being likely to miss the NCAA Tournament completely. Did you remember that? Yeah, neither did I.
Not only that, Mack was 100% responsible for every player on all of those rosters except for the first of those seasons (unless you also count Redford’s roster spot in 2013 as a redshirt senior).
Despite my faulty recollection of thinking we had pretty much comfortably made the Tournament virtually every season—and believing that as February wound down, we weren’t concerned about our bid—Xavier was considered completely outside to nearly outside the bubble when each of the following regular seasons ended, prior to their conference tournaments:
2012 – “The Brawl Year”
Before the Shootout, Xavier had reached #8 in the AP Poll, a ranking they maintained after the Shootout. Within two weeks they had dropped out of the poll completely, losing three straight games to Oral Roberts, Long Beach St. and Hawaii. And the problem wasn’t just short term, as they continued to play inconsistently for the remainder of the year, ending regular season with a #60 Kenpom ranking. In March, when assessing Xavier’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament, Joe Lunardi said they were a “long shot”.
Xavier went into the A-10 Tournament with work to do, beating a decent Dayton team and a very good (#14 KP) St. Louis team before losing the A-10 Final. They went from being considered on the wrong side of the bubble to being a 10-seed—going on to a Sweet 16 finish.
2013 – “Post Tu, Kenny and Mark (and Dez)”
Xavier lost a ton of talent after 2012. Tu and Kenny graduated. Mark Lyons transferred because he wasn’t going to play PG. And Dez was (wrongly) kicked out of school. However, Xavier had its first and only 5-star freshman coming in, Semaj Christon. Semaj was amazing, one of Xavier’s few stars as a freshman. Travis Taylor went from being a struggling junior PF transfer from a low major conference the year before to being named A-10 Third Team All Conference as a senior, and the conference's Most Improved Player of the Year.
No doubt that team would have been much better with Dez. But whether he would have been enough to get the Muskies invited to The Dance is unknown, as their regular season KP ranking was #80, and their resume was still well outside of any consideration, and they played in no postseason tournament.
2014 – “The Big East”
Semaj was even better as a sophomore. Justin Martin had a breakout year. And Matt Stainbrook was a gift from the MAC, scoring and rebounding with high efficiency, and sporting an assist rate that was more in line with a PG than a C.
Despite the improvements, Xavier remained at the bubble’s edge all season, and X’s fate was still uncertain at the end of the regular season. They beat Marquette in the 2nd round of the Big East Tournament and ended up with a 12-seed as one of the Last Four In. Marquette was only a decent team that season, had they lost that game, there’s a very real chance they would have missed the Tournament. They lost their Play-In game against NC State by 15 points, at Dayton. That marked the first time Xavier had not even made it to the First Round of the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons since the 2000-01 season.
2017 – “A Disastrous Finish”
Xavier legend and previous year’s leading scorer, Trevon Bluiett, was back for his junior season. So were Edmond Sumner, JP Macura and Sean O’Mara. Kaiser Gates took a nice step forward. And two freshmen—Quentin Goodin and Tyrique Jones—made nice contributions, combining for 9.3 pts, 5.1 reb and 3.7 ast. Malcolm Bernard, a grad transfer from a very low major school, came in and struggled early, but continuously progressed throughout the season. Unfortunately, Myles Davis was suspended and played a total of 34 minutes in 3 midseason games before getting permanently booted from the team.
Even without Davis, X jumped out to a fast start, winning their first 7 games and were #7 in the AP Poll going into December. Sumner was hurt on and off early, but went down for the year with a devastating injury against St. John’s. However, Xavier won that game and the following three games before losing six consecutive games, each by double digits except one, in which they were beaten by nine points. Xavier snapped the losing streak by beating 183rd-ranked (KP) DePaul to close out the regular season. They were on shaky ground and really needed a signature win in the Big East Tournament, which they got by beating a 25th-ranked (KP) Butler team after also beating DePaul in the first round.
So while it’s true Xavier would be in unusual territory if we missed the NCAA Tournament completely in two consecutive years, this season’s situation really isn’t that all that different than where we’ve been fairly often in recent years.
In fact, from Matta’s final season in 2004 (our first Elite Eight year) through Mack’s final season, Xavier finished the regular season (pre-conference tournamment) on the bubble or worse in 7 of those 15 seasons: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2017.
It sure doesn’t feel like that though, especially when you consider that 2 of our 3 Elite Eights (2004 and 2017) were during those seasons, and one of our Sweet Sixteens (2012).
X fans are salty we’re even close to being a bubble team this late in the season—on message boards, Twitter, Facebook, at home games, etc.
Some have called for Steele’s firing. Some believe we’ve finally whiffed on a coaching hire—even though they were just as convinced that was the case with Miller and Mack.
Those folks longed for the good old days under Mack. Ahhh, you remember, all those years we were a lock and didn’t have to worry about “the bubble.”
I recall those seasons too. Except I didn’t remember how poorly I recalled them—until today.
After all, it sure doesn’t currently feel like that in 4 of Mack’s final 7 seasons at the helm, Xavier ended the regular season in early March either dangerously teetering on the bubble to being likely to miss the NCAA Tournament completely. Did you remember that? Yeah, neither did I.
Not only that, Mack was 100% responsible for every player on all of those rosters except for the first of those seasons (unless you also count Redford’s roster spot in 2013 as a redshirt senior).
Despite my faulty recollection of thinking we had pretty much comfortably made the Tournament virtually every season—and believing that as February wound down, we weren’t concerned about our bid—Xavier was considered completely outside to nearly outside the bubble when each of the following regular seasons ended, prior to their conference tournaments:
2012 – “The Brawl Year”
Before the Shootout, Xavier had reached #8 in the AP Poll, a ranking they maintained after the Shootout. Within two weeks they had dropped out of the poll completely, losing three straight games to Oral Roberts, Long Beach St. and Hawaii. And the problem wasn’t just short term, as they continued to play inconsistently for the remainder of the year, ending regular season with a #60 Kenpom ranking. In March, when assessing Xavier’s chances of making the NCAA Tournament, Joe Lunardi said they were a “long shot”.
Xavier went into the A-10 Tournament with work to do, beating a decent Dayton team and a very good (#14 KP) St. Louis team before losing the A-10 Final. They went from being considered on the wrong side of the bubble to being a 10-seed—going on to a Sweet 16 finish.
2013 – “Post Tu, Kenny and Mark (and Dez)”
Xavier lost a ton of talent after 2012. Tu and Kenny graduated. Mark Lyons transferred because he wasn’t going to play PG. And Dez was (wrongly) kicked out of school. However, Xavier had its first and only 5-star freshman coming in, Semaj Christon. Semaj was amazing, one of Xavier’s few stars as a freshman. Travis Taylor went from being a struggling junior PF transfer from a low major conference the year before to being named A-10 Third Team All Conference as a senior, and the conference's Most Improved Player of the Year.
No doubt that team would have been much better with Dez. But whether he would have been enough to get the Muskies invited to The Dance is unknown, as their regular season KP ranking was #80, and their resume was still well outside of any consideration, and they played in no postseason tournament.
2014 – “The Big East”
Semaj was even better as a sophomore. Justin Martin had a breakout year. And Matt Stainbrook was a gift from the MAC, scoring and rebounding with high efficiency, and sporting an assist rate that was more in line with a PG than a C.
Despite the improvements, Xavier remained at the bubble’s edge all season, and X’s fate was still uncertain at the end of the regular season. They beat Marquette in the 2nd round of the Big East Tournament and ended up with a 12-seed as one of the Last Four In. Marquette was only a decent team that season, had they lost that game, there’s a very real chance they would have missed the Tournament. They lost their Play-In game against NC State by 15 points, at Dayton. That marked the first time Xavier had not even made it to the First Round of the NCAA Tournament in consecutive seasons since the 2000-01 season.
2017 – “A Disastrous Finish”
Xavier legend and previous year’s leading scorer, Trevon Bluiett, was back for his junior season. So were Edmond Sumner, JP Macura and Sean O’Mara. Kaiser Gates took a nice step forward. And two freshmen—Quentin Goodin and Tyrique Jones—made nice contributions, combining for 9.3 pts, 5.1 reb and 3.7 ast. Malcolm Bernard, a grad transfer from a very low major school, came in and struggled early, but continuously progressed throughout the season. Unfortunately, Myles Davis was suspended and played a total of 34 minutes in 3 midseason games before getting permanently booted from the team.
Even without Davis, X jumped out to a fast start, winning their first 7 games and were #7 in the AP Poll going into December. Sumner was hurt on and off early, but went down for the year with a devastating injury against St. John’s. However, Xavier won that game and the following three games before losing six consecutive games, each by double digits except one, in which they were beaten by nine points. Xavier snapped the losing streak by beating 183rd-ranked (KP) DePaul to close out the regular season. They were on shaky ground and really needed a signature win in the Big East Tournament, which they got by beating a 25th-ranked (KP) Butler team after also beating DePaul in the first round.
So while it’s true Xavier would be in unusual territory if we missed the NCAA Tournament completely in two consecutive years, this season’s situation really isn’t that all that different than where we’ve been fairly often in recent years.
In fact, from Matta’s final season in 2004 (our first Elite Eight year) through Mack’s final season, Xavier finished the regular season (pre-conference tournamment) on the bubble or worse in 7 of those 15 seasons: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2017.
It sure doesn’t feel like that though, especially when you consider that 2 of our 3 Elite Eights (2004 and 2017) were during those seasons, and one of our Sweet Sixteens (2012).