So much pressure on the defense

[BigMoeMusketeer]

For me, this is really where we are right now, and maybe that is fine, but the way we are presently constructed, we are putting an immense amount of pressure on our defense to hold teams down.

Here are some basic numbers / metrics as the calendar turns, in advance of our three "close to must win" home conference games upcoming.

We have 70 possessions per game, about average.
We turn it over 20% of the time, so 14, which is high. Leaves us 56 possessions.
When we do hoist a shot: we are 94th in 2 point pct, 296th in three point pct, and 238th in FT pct. Our effective FG% is right at 50%. (Call that 56 points).
We get back about a third of our misses, 77th in the country, so that gives us 9 extra possessions, which should then net us about 9 points.

That is 65 points. Tough to win a lot of games against good competition, especially on the road where the home team gets, on average, 2.1 fewer fouls called against them than their opponents.

So, in order for us not to have to live on a razor's edge:
* Have more possessions (seems unlikely that we are going to start playing faster, although I did think we'd see more full-court defense this year than we've seen).
* turn it over less. That has gotten a little better, but our competition is about to go WAY up, so would be foolish to think we are going to all of a sudden turn it over a lot less.
* Shoot it better, and unless KyKy really blossoms, again, against better competition, I'm not sure we can expect to shoot it a lot better.
* Better offensive rebounding. Certainly possible, I guess, but Carter doesn't rebound outside of his area very well, and if KyKy is going to play more, we are likely going to play "smaller" than we have in the first half of the season.

In short, we are going to have to win a lot of rock-fights, we are going to have to keep teams in the 60's except on those nights when a guy or two get white-hot, and we are going to have to be consistently really good on the defensive end.

I still think we can win 20 games, but man, it is going to be a slog.

[drudy23]

I don't buy this.

They are putting self-inflicted pressure on the defense.

There is a difference in a team that can't score vs. a team that can't shoot. We can't shoot, but there are plenty of guys that can score. We are a bad shooting team that shoots the ball too much. Our offense plays into our weaknesses, and that's what puts so much pressure on the defense.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

I don't buy this.


What is there not to buy? Those are simply statistics through the first half of the season, there wasn't really any editorializing except in that I don't think things can quantifiably improve against better teams (Big East play).

[drudy23]

Let me re-phrase. Your analysis is good.

I don't buy the title of the thread. I think we manufacture our own pressure on defense by how we play offense.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

Let me re-phrase. Your analysis is good.

I don't buy the title of the thread. I think we manufacture our own pressure on defense by how we play offense.

I think we are actually in full agreement, just stated differently. Either way, and regardless of the causation, we are putting a ton of pressure on our defense to be great every night.

[AviatorX]

100% agreed. You're never going to be a serious contender with a team this lopsided, but if you're going to be lopsided, much better to tilt toward offense and just hope someone gets hot.

I hate the idea of building a team's success completely around the defensive end. I think (and hope) Travis Steele feels the same way.

[GoMuskies]

And if for no other reason than a mediocre team is a TON more fun to watch if they're mediocre because the offense is really good and the defense is subpar. Teams like the current Xavier team are hard to watch even if they're mediocre to pretty good. And check out the KenPom of Wichita State as that's the other team I end up watching because of where I live. I see a lot of ugly basketball!

[BigMoeMusketeer]

Teams like the current Xavier team are hard to watch

Agreed, I've made that exact point in many game threads this year. Between the lack of execution, and the occasional head-scratching plays, they are not very aesthetically pleasing.

Lord, is this how UC fans felt during Mick's entire tenure in Clifton? How did they watch this 35x a year for so many years?

[AviatorX]

Were we pissed about how shitty the defense was in 2018? Honestly can't remember, probably because that team generated so many offensive highlights, but their defense was roughly equivalent to this team's offense.

Really a shame they were so damn mediocre defensively. Hard to imagine ever putting together another offense that lethal at X.

[GoMuskies]

I'm certain we were frustrated by it against good opponents (see Villanova), but that offense was also significantly better relatively speaking than this year's defense is. So that offense was better able to cover for the lapses in defense than this year's defense is able to cover for the lapses in offense.

[AviatorX]

I'm certain we were frustrated by it against good opponents (see Villanova), but that offense was also significantly better relatively speaking than this year's defense is. So that offense was better able to cover for the lapses in defense than this year's defense is able to cover for the lapses in offense.

Totally fair point. That team's shooting was insane, even fucking Naji was 35% from deep.

[xuwillie]

The frustrating part is this team isn't any better than last years team with pretty much the whole team back. That usually doesn't happen at X! Is it the players or coaching?

[drudy23]

I think everyone would agree that keeping the status quo and playing this out in its current form isn't in the best interest of this team.

So, we'll just have to see what changes, if anything. I hope there are some changes.

[GoMuskies]

The frustrating part is this team isn't any better than last years team with pretty much the whole team back.

To date, this team is SIGNIFICANTLY better than last year's team. Last year's team was an absolute mess until February. This year's team is pretty good now.

[AviatorX]

The frustrating part is this team isn't any better than last years team with pretty much the whole team back. That usually doesn't happen at X! Is it the players or coaching?

This year's team is definitely way better. Last year's team sucked outside of 2-3 weeks. They were 11-13 at one point coming off a home loss to DePaul in a significantly worse Big East.

Fair to say you'd expect this team to be better than it is, but let's not overstate things.

[xu koop scoop]

We aren't good shooters, but there is such a thing as getting better shots. Give a bad shooter a more open, easier shot & % will improve. KyKy needs to be a complete player. Driving to the hole or shooting high % 2s, I cringe at him being a 3 pt "specialist". Freemantle needs at least 10 extra minutes, taken away from Carter. Managing personnel better & running better plays can improve offense

[drudy23]

We aren't good shooters, but there is such a thing as getting better shots. Give a bad shooter a more open, easier shot & % will improve. KyKy needs to be a complete player. Driving to the hole or shooting high % 2s, I cringe at him being a 3 pt "specialist". Freemantle needs at least 10 extra minutes, taken away from Carter. Managing personnel better & running better plays can improve offense

Amen.

[AviatorX]

We aren't good shooters, but there is such a thing as getting better shots. Give a bad shooter a more open, easier shot & % will improve. KyKy needs to be a complete player. Driving to the hole or shooting high % 2s, I cringe at him being a 3 pt "specialist". Freemantle needs at least 10 extra minutes, taken away from Carter. Managing personnel better & running better plays can improve offense

Obviously this is true. But things like "run better plays" always crack me up. Every team is packing the lane and jamming sets against X, so what actions would you have them run?

Throwing possessions away is another story. There's no excuse for that, especially when consistent offense is so hard for this group.

[xuwillie]

Not sure how you can say this team is better than last year by looking at stats. Our Defense is stronger but if you look at our Offensive field goal %'s we are actually lower than last years. May be wrong but I feel like I'm watching the same team as last year.

[drudy23]

Not sure how you can say this team is better than last year by looking at stats. Our Defense is stronger but if you look at our Offensive field goal %'s we are actually lower than last years. May be wrong but I feel like I'm watching the same team as last year.

C'mon man.

[GoMuskies]

Not sure how you can say this team is better than last year by looking at stats. Our Defense is stronger but if you look at our Offensive field goal %'s we are actually lower than last years. May be wrong but I feel like I'm watching the same team as last year.

Last year our offense was #56 according to KenPom and our defense was #102. For a high quality #65 overall rating. This year we have the #60 offense (missing Hanky McSpanky), but the defense is up to #19, for a respectable overall #28 rating. We're not great, for sure, but this team is definitely way ahead of last year's team.

[AviatorX]

Last year our offense was #56 according to KenPom and our defense was #102. For a high quality #65 overall rating. This year we have the #60 offense (missing Hanky McSpanky), but the defense is up to #19, for a respectable overall #28 rating. We're not great, for sure, but this team is definitely way ahead of last year's team.

It cannot be overstated how bad the defense was last year. I mean just absolutely horrendous, and that's after it was much much better down the stretch.

I wonder how many hours of sleep Trav lost over his "best defensive team in X history" comment. I mean talk about all time bad takes.

[xuwillie]

Ok offensively what are they doing better?

[GoMuskies]

Ok offensively what are they doing better?

Nothing. They're slightly worse offensively.

[xuwillie]

exactly. And with a pretty easy out of conference schedule. That's all I'm saying, we haven't seen the growth we normally do with all the core players back.

[GoMuskies]

OK, but you said we weren't any better. In fact, we're significantly better. Just not on offense (which is, of course, very frustrating).

[AviatorX]

This year's team on NYE would kick last year's team's ass. I'm confident in that.

[AviatorX]

exactly. And with a pretty easy out of conference schedule. That's all I'm saying, we haven't seen the growth we normally do with all the core players back.

Yes, this is true if you completely ignore the fact that this team is now one of the best defensive teams in Xavier history as opposed to last year's team which was one of the worst.

[xuwillie]

Ok but do you think this "better" Defense will translate into more big east wins this year? Hope I'm wrong but don't see it with how bad this offense is to date

[GoMuskies]

I'm not sure it will be more wins, because the Big East is significantly better across the board this year.

[paulxu]

And check out the KenPom of Wichita State as that's the other team I end up watching because of where I live. I see a lot of ugly basketball!

I get to watch Wofford. It's really good basketball.

[XUOHTX]

For me, this is really where we are right now, and maybe that is fine, but the way we are presently constructed, we are putting an immense amount of pressure on our defense to hold teams down.

Here are some basic numbers / metrics as the calendar turns, in advance of our three "close to must win" home conference games upcoming.

We have 70 possessions per game, about average.
We turn it over 20% of the time, so 14, which is high. Leaves us 56 possessions.
When we do hoist a shot: we are 94th in 2 point pct, 296th in three point pct, and 238th in FT pct. Our effective FG% is right at 50%. (Call that 56 points).
We get back about a third of our misses, 77th in the country, so that gives us 9 extra possessions, which should then net us about 9 points.

That is 65 points. Tough to win a lot of games against good competition, especially on the road where the home team gets, on average, 2.1 fewer fouls called against them than their opponents.

So, in order for us not to have to live on a razor's edge:
* Have more possessions (seems unlikely that we are going to start playing faster, although I did think we'd see more full-court defense this year than we've seen).
* turn it over less. That has gotten a little better, but our competition is about to go WAY up, so would be foolish to think we are going to all of a sudden turn it over a lot less.
* Shoot it better, and unless KyKy really blossoms, again, against better competition, I'm not sure we can expect to shoot it a lot better.
* Better offensive rebounding. Certainly possible, I guess, but Carter doesn't rebound outside of his area very well, and if KyKy is going to play more, we are likely going to play "smaller" than we have in the first half of the season.

In short, we are going to have to win a lot of rock-fights, we are going to have to keep teams in the 60's except on those nights when a guy or two get white-hot, and we are going to have to be consistently really good on the defensive end.

I still think we can win 20 games, but man, it is going to be a slog.

This depresses me and crushes my spirit.

[XUBob]

This team is going to win on making two point shots and rebounding. X had a ton of good looks three feet and in last night, missed a bunch, convert them might be a different story. It is going to be an inside out year our big guys have to make the close ones. Until the last minute they had only taken eight threes, granted they were 0-7 ant one point. But I think Travis knows our strengths, is trying to play to them but last night it didn’t happen. We can talk about rebounding later.

[UCGRAD4X]

I get to watch Wofford. It's really good basketball.

I have a niece there. Woof Woof! Go Terriers! Bite their ankles!

[xu koop scoop]

Effect of 3 pt shooting on our Defense - The Good, The Bad, The Ugly. The Good is we are #41 in 3 Pt Def at 29.1% (other good W.V #4, Va #25, Louie #26, Butler #29). The Bad is we are #312 in 3 Pt Off at 29.4%. (also bad NC #301, Tenn #307, Ky #315, Va #337). The Ugly to me is we have attempted 289 where Ky has attempted 191 & only NC amongst those good teams listed is close to us at 240. My thinking is, ok - we are bad at the 3. Shoot less of them

[bjf123]

Unfortunately, I think the reason we take so many threes is our opponents know we’re not good at it, so they concentrate more on stopping our inside game, and we react by taking way too many from behind the line.


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[Muskie]

I dislike the pull up JP Macura 3’s early in the shot clock when they are not taken by the actual player named JP Macura.


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