Bracketology 2020

[GoMuskies]

Too soon? Never! The latest one has us as the very last team in, earning the always fun trip to Dayton to play Kansas State. Now, I don't think that's ideal, and I think it's underrating the Muskies significantly, but it actually would be kind of a fun scenario if it played out exactly has Joe predicts here. Why? Because Xavier is the last team in, and Dayton is the first team out. I would enjoy that.

But I'd enjoy a nice 5 seed much more.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[surfxu]

It would be interesting to see how this "way too early" bracketology compares to reality on Selection Sunday. I would think Travis and the team would be very upset with their performance if they only ended up as an 11 seed and the last team in. I just don't see it being anywhere near that close. As for cincinnati... I just don't get who sees any value in them. They are basically a one man show with a new head coach. They are going to be BAD. They'll have wins just because they play the likes of Tulsa and Tulane, but they are going to have zero quad one or quad two wins.

[X-man]

Lunardi is a hack. Palm's competing bracketology came out yesterday, and has Xavier as a 7-seed. A 7-seed is much more consistent with most of the early power ratings where Xavier is mostly ranked between 15 and 30. Even Lunardi's ESPN home has the Muskies in the top 25. Maybe Lunardi knows something that everyone else has missed. More likely, he knows less.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

It would be interesting to see how this "way too early" bracketology compares to reality on Selection Sunday. I would think Travis and the team would be very upset with their performance if they only ended up as an 11 seed and the last team in. I just don't see it being anywhere near that close. As for cincinnati... I just don't get who sees any value in them. They are basically a one man show with a new head coach. They are going to be BAD. They'll have wins just because they play the likes of Tulsa and Tulane, but they are going to have zero quad one or quad two wins.

I agree with your initial point(s), Travis and Company should be VERY disappointed if they are a double-digit seed, especially to the point they have to play in Dayton.

I don't agree with you about Cincinnati being terrible. I certainly think they're going to catch a beating at Cintas, but I still think they are a 20 win team and will be comfortably above the bubble.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

Lunardi is a hack. Palm's competing bracketology came out yesterday, and has Xavier as a 7-seed. A 7-seed is much more consistent with most of the early power ratings where Xavier is mostly ranked between 15 and 30. Even Lunardi's ESPN home has the Muskies in the top 25. Maybe Lunardi knows something that everyone else has missed. More likely, he knows less.
Jerry having us as a 7....against UL as the 2 in the 2nd round...is so predictable. He falls in love with the "fun story" match-ups.

Side-note, not for nothing, I'm not sure we want any piece of UL this year in the tourney, unless of course we can get them in the Final Four, which, at that point, I won't be picky!

[Xville]

Jerry having us as a 7....against UL as the 2 in the 2nd round...is so predictable. He falls in love with the "fun story" match-ups.

Side-note, not for nothing, I'm not sure we want any piece of UL this year in the tourney, unless of course we can get them in the Final Four, which, at that point, I won't be picky!

Louisville is way over ranked this year and let's be honest, even if they do happen to have a good reg season as a one or two seed, they will lose the first weekend.

[Olsingledigit]

Louisville is way over ranked this year and let's be honest, even if they do happen to have a good reg season as a one or two seed, they will lose the first weekend.

CM took X beyond the first weekend a number of times. What makes you think he would not do that at UL?

[xukeith]

I hope X does great this upcoming season. Thinking about all the past incoming rated frosh, X frosh have a huge learning curve. Look at Naji, Scruggs, Macura, Holloway, etc. as frosh they made some contribution but the main offensive source came from juniors and seniors.

I think the core 4 plus 2 grad transfers will carry the team and maybe 2 frosh will make some contribution. The following year, with Odom, CJ, and other ranked frosh, will be good with the 5 sophomores(Freemantle, Bishop, Tandy, Ramsey, and Miles) contributing a lot more.

Hope I am wrong and 2 frosh end up averaging 10 points but the past has shown me frosh don't contribute a TON. X will be a NCAA at- large team. We shall see.

[scoscox]

Probably right Keith. If you look at who the freshmen are ranked near you’ll see guys like Quentin goodin, josh Duncan, jp macura, Edmond sumner, etc. it’s probably reasonable to expect a similar level of production as those guys.

[bobbiemcgee]

5 Ed's would be good.:shocked:

[Backyard Champ]

Jerry having us as a 7....against UL as the 2 in the 2nd round...is so predictable. He falls in love with the "fun story" match-ups.

Side-note, not for nothing, I'm not sure we want any piece of UL this year in the tourney, unless of course we can get them in the Final Four, which, at that point, I won't be picky!

I don't like Jerry at all, but of course he's going to make fun story matchups as much as he can. He's a journalist, trying to get people to look at and talk about this article he wrote in the off season. It's actually a smart idea for him to do that.

[bobbiemcgee]

Looks like Katz was drinking the blue Kool-Aid over the summer. 4 seed with 'Nova:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2019-09-16/2020-ncaa-bracket-predicted-50-days-opening-night

[94GRAD]

Looks like Katz was drinking the blue Kool-Aid over the summer. 4 seed with 'Nova:

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2019-09-16/2020-ncaa-bracket-predicted-50-days-opening-night

He has Seton Hall as a 2 seed!

[JTG]

He has Seton Hall as a 2 seed!

He's definitely been drinking something, too high for us and SHU. I'd put us in the 5-7 range and the Hall 4-5.

[sirthought]

Katz predictions at this stage are interesting. Not bad for Xavier if it plays out that way.

[Xuperman]

He's definitely been drinking something, too high for us and SHU. I'd put us in the 5-7 range and the Hall 4-5.

Talk about “HIGH”...Chris Mack wins the ACC and gets a 1 seed? Middle of the pack ACC and 14 game loser last year minus their senior PG to a 1 seed? Rolled by the Gophers in the 1st round to a 1 seed? He must LOVE Nwora, like POY love, because otherwise that’s just nuts! Not to mention he has terrible penmanship.
:nah:

[Xville]

Yeah I dont understand all the louisville love from the prognosticators. Dont get me wrong, I think they are going to be good, but not top 5 good like so many "experts" believe.

[Xuperman]

I can't find any national poll with UofL top 5 and Katz is the only prominent individual I've seem predicting them there. In fact, you would be hard pressed to find them ahead of Duke anywhere, so the way he sees the ACC is very peculiar with Duke, UVA and UNC all several spots behind on the 3 line. Besides, Mack had a top seed once and it didn't turn out well.

I realize this is not his preseason rankings but more like his pre tournament rankings but baffling none the less.

[Lloyd Braun]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/top25/

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26902770/kansas-michigan-way-too-early-top-25-2019-20

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/06/05/ncaa-basketball-top-25-rankings-michigan-state-kentucky-duke

[Lloyd Braun]

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/rankings/top25/

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/26902770/kansas-michigan-way-too-early-top-25-2019-20

https://www.si.com/college-basketball/2019/06/05/ncaa-basketball-top-25-rankings-michigan-state-kentucky-duke

Another national poll with Louisville in top 5. Xavier checks in top 20.

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2019/09/30/college-basketball-2019-2020-preseason-top-25-2/

[xubrew]

I think Louisville is going to be pretty damn good. It would not break my heart at all if they ended up being a bust, though.

[GoMuskies]

Another national poll with Louisville in top 5. Xavier checks in top 20.

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2019/09/30/college-basketball-2019-2020-preseason-top-25-2/

We're almost as good at Utah State!

[Muskie]

Latest Bracketology has X as a 7 Seed playing in Greensboro against Colorado (with a potential second round match up against the Duke/Georgia Southern winner).

[GoMuskies]

Latest Bracketology has X as a 7 Seed playing in Greensboro against Colorado (with a potential second round match up against the Duke/Georgia Southern winner).

Wouldn't be bad. My super scientific theory based on ironclad anecdotal evidence is that when blue blood programs like Dook, UNC and Kansas don't get a #1 seed, they're just not that good of teams. When they're a #1 seed, they're stronger than the "average" #1 seed, and when they get a lower seed they're weaker than the "average" team on that seed line. For some reason, this theory doesn't seem to apply to Kentucky.

[paulxu]

X as a 7 Seed playing in Greensboro

This would be a good thing.

[scoscox]

This would be a good thing.

Would be a good location for that seed, but i think we can be better than a 7

[sirthought]

Would be a good location for that seed, but i think we can be better than a 7After last year's shortfall and a team that has yet to prove anything this year, is say a seven seed would be a good accomplishment.

Sent from my Pixel 3a using Tapatalk

[GoMuskies]

We all know Bracketology is meaningless, particularly Bracketology on December 2nd. However, today is an historic day in Bracketology. One of the SEVEN Big East teams currently rating a bid in the latest Bracketology is none other than the DePaul Blue Demons. Keep it up fellas!

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

(Bonus: UC is one of the first four out, and the AAC is a two bid league.)

[noteggs]

Tampa in March works for me!

[X-band '01]

We all know Bracketology is meaningless, particularly Bracketology on December 2nd. However, today is an historic day in Bracketology. One of the SEVEN Big East teams currently rating a bid in the latest Bracketology is none other than the DePaul Blue Demons. Keep it up fellas!

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

(Bonus: UC is one of the first four out, and the AAC is a two bid league.)

And not just because they were a flukish 1-0 in the Big East a few years back. They've earned it so far.

[bobbiemcgee]

How cool would it be to get 8 teams in?:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I think SJU is also making a good case.

[xcellentx]

How cool would it be to get 8 teams in?:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I think SJU is also making a good case.

Providence is probably the only one that has had a bad OOC record this year, but even they have enough talent to make a run.

[GoMuskies]

Latest from ESPN out today. At first there's a bit of a WTF in that Lunardi only has 6 Big East teams in his bracket. On second glance, though, he has THREE Big East teams among the first four out. So we're within a whisker of having 90% of the Big East in the Tournament at this point. Now, I know it's meaningless on January 7th and there's no chance that could continue all the way to March....but it's pretty cool to see nonetheless.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[xudash]

Latest from ESPN out today. At first there's a bit of a WTF in that Lunardi only has 6 Big East teams in his bracket. On second glance, though, he has THREE Big East teams among the first four out. So we're within a whisker of having 90% of the Big East in the Tournament at this point. Now, I know it's meaningless on January 7th and there's no chance that could continue all the way to March....but it's pretty cool to see nonetheless.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

It would be a hoot to beat Gonzaga in Spokane.

[drudy23]

Gonzaga should not be allowed to play in Spokane for the first round.

[GoMuskies]

Gonzaga should not be allowed to play in Spokane for the first round.

Why not? If Dook and UNC can play in Raleigh, Kentucky can play in Louisville, KU can play in Kansas City or Wichita, IU can play in Indianapolis, Pitt can play in Pittsburgh, UCLA and USC can play in LA, BYU can play in Salt Lake, etc. etc...

[drudy23]

I understand it's allowed, but it's dumb.

You shouldn't be allowed to play in your home city (unless it's the Final Four which are pre-determined). You shouldn't get home games in the tournament, they all should be relatively neutral sites.

[GoMuskies]

It's kind of a bummer, but I'm not sure how you police it. It seems silly to have Gonzaga playing in their own city, but it's really no less of an advantage for KU to play in Kansas City, which is not only not in the same city as the university, but it's in another state. You could draw some radius from campus, but then you're just giving an advantage to state schools, because UNC is going to have as big an advantage in Charlotte (150 miles away) as Gonzaga would in Spokane.

[xubrew]

I understand it's allowed, but it's dumb.

You shouldn't be allowed to play in your home city (unless it's the Final Four which are pre-determined). You shouldn't get home games in the tournament, they all should be relatively neutral sites.

I disagree. I think if a team gets out there and earns a protected seed then they should get to play close to home, or even at home. Div1 men's basketball is the only college championship in any sport at any division that doesn't allow to play at home. In most tournaments, the better seeded team actually always hosts in the early rounds. If the NCAA changed the rules to say that if a school that's hosting could be sent to their host site if they earned protected seed (seeds 1 thru 4), then I guarantee you you'd see a lot more schools wanting to put in bids to host NCAA Tournament games. If teams don't like the idea of potentially having to play a team at their home site, well then put in a bid to host the games yourself and go out there and win more during the regular season.

[drudy23]

I totally disagree. I think if a team gets out there and earns a protected seed then they should get to play close to home, or even at home. Div1 men's basketball is the only college championship in any sport at any division that doesn't allow to play at home. In most tournaments, the better seeded team actually always hosts in the early rounds. If the NCAA changed the rules to say that if a school that's hosting could be sent to their host site if they earned protected seed (seeds 1 thru 4), then I guarantee you you'd see a lot more schools wanting to put in bids to host NCAA Tournament games. If teams don't like the idea of potentially having to play a team at their home site, well then put in a bid to host the games yourself and go out there and win more during the regular season.

The top tiers teams pretty much every year are Power 5 teams. They already have the deck stacked in their favor, this would make it worse. Mid majors would never get protected seeds or home games.

It's kind of like when a few years ago they had the Bracket Buster where the convinced everyone through marketing that pitting two mid majors against each other would be great for them to get a good win. In reality, all it was doing was eliminating more mid majors from consideration when they lost the game.

[muskiefan82]

The top tiers teams pretty much every year are Power 5 teams. They already have the deck stacked in their favor, this would make it worse. Mid majors would never get protected seeds or home games.

It's kind of like when a few years ago they had the Bracket Buster where the convinced everyone through marketing that pitting two mid majors against each other would be great for them to get a good win. In reality, all it was doing was eliminating more mid majors from consideration when they lost the game.

STOP with the truth! That's quite enough revealing of what was actually happening, thank you!! (All in sarcasm font)

[xubrew]

The top tiers teams pretty much every year are Power 5 teams. They already have the deck stacked in their favor, this would make it worse. Mid majors would never get protected seeds or home games.

It's kind of like when a few years ago they had the Bracket Buster where the convinced everyone through marketing that pitting two mid majors against each other would be great for them to get a good win. In reality, all it was doing was eliminating more mid majors from consideration when they lost the game.

That's not how I remember the Bracket Buster. In 2001 no one from outside the power leagues was in the top half of the bracket, and in 2002 I think there were only like two teams. It wasn't until the Buster that you started to see more teams from what had been regular one-bid leagues get more bids and better seeds. The George Mason Final Four team probably doesn't even get into the NCAA Tournament if they don't win that game at Wichita State, and it didn't hurt Wichita State all that much because they still ended up in the top half of the bracket as a #7 seed and made the Sweet Sixteen. Just look at the NCAA Tournament brackets shortly after the Buster got off the ground and compare the number of "mid majors" that were seeded ahead of the last at-large teams, and compare it to what it looked like before. Almost no one who was connected to a mid-major program at that time thought it was a bad thing. In fact, they loved it. To say that it eliminated more mid majors from consideration is completely wrong. The selection committee members at the time would be the first ones to tell you that it if anything, it really helped.

The Buster actually became somewhat a victim of its own success. At least sort of. Those games did get strong ratings, and the result was that smaller leagues started to get TV deals with other networks, and since those networks had the rights to the games ESPN just didn't want to negotiate for it anymore, so they eventually dropped it.

[muskiefan82]

What seems to happen now (at least in my mind) is that the mid-majors who do make the tournament seem to play each other in the first round quite often. This may be just selective memory, but it seems like the mid-majors are disproportionately matched against each other rather than against a power 5 team so that one will guaranteed to be eliminated.

[drudy23]

That's not how I remember the Bracket Buster. In 2001 no one from outside the power leagues was in the top half of the bracket, and in 2002 I think there were only like two teams. It wasn't until the Buster that you started to see more teams from what had been regular one-bid leagues get more bids and better seeds. The George Mason Final Four team probably doesn't even get into the NCAA Tournament if they don't win that game at Wichita State, and it didn't hurt Wichita State all that much because they still ended up in the top half of the bracket as a #7 seed and made the Sweet Sixteen. Just look at the NCAA Tournament brackets shortly after the Buster got off the ground and compare the number of "mid majors" that were seeded ahead of the last at-large teams, and compare it to what it looked like before. Almost no one who was connected to a mid-major program at that time thought it was a bad thing. In fact, they loved it. To say that it eliminated more mid majors from consideration is completely wrong. The selection committee members at the time would be the first ones to tell you that it if anything, it really helped.

The Buster actually became somewhat a victim of its own success. At least sort of. Those games did get strong ratings, and the result was that smaller leagues started to get TV deals with other networks, and since those networks had the rights to the games ESPN just didn't want to negotiate for it anymore, so they eventually dropped it.

Not really - for the teams in the "marquee" matchups, they were likely already going. For everyone else, it didn't mean much. Because initially the event got so much hype, the losers often felt they were left with very little chance of making the tournament (had the feel of a glorified play-in game). It was a ploy to make them feel like they mattered.

https://www.midmajormadness.com/features/2012/12/12/3761250/end-of-espn-bracket-busters-bitter-sweet

[xubrew]

What seems to happen now (at least in my mind) is that the mid-majors who do make the tournament seem to play each other in the first round quite often. This may be just selective memory, but it seems like the mid-majors are disproportionately matched against each other rather than against a power 5 team so that one will guaranteed to be eliminated.

It’s not selective memory. It’s definitely true. But when more than half the teams in the field are mid-majors, or when a mid major earns a 5, 6, or 7 seed, it’s kind of hard to avoid. That happens a lot more now than it used to.

And it also assured that a mid major will make the round of 32

[drudy23]

What seems to happen now (at least in my mind) is that the mid-majors who do make the tournament seem to play each other in the first round quite often. This may be just selective memory, but it seems like the mid-majors are disproportionately matched against each other rather than against a power 5 team so that one will guaranteed to be eliminated.

Agreed. I've noticed this as well.

[muskiefan82]

And it also assured that a mid major will make the round of 32

Ah, the guess half full view. Good point.

[drudy23]

Don't look now - Lunardi's latest update projects us in the "Last 4 In". I don't know that I can argue it either.

I know it's just one man's projection, but I think the rest of the country is catching on that we're not that good. Swift and brisk fall from grace over a very short period of time.

[GoMuskies]

I can't believe he still has us in. Given our "resume" to date, it just goes to show how low a bar it is to sneak into the Tournament from a major conference.

[muethibp]

I can't believe he still has us in. Given our "resume" to date, it just goes to show how low a bar it is to sneak into the Tournament from a major conference.

We see every year that the expansion to 68 was preposterous. The last four teams in are almost uniformly very bad basketball teams.

[GoMuskies]

Not sure I'm buying what Jerry is selling, but Mr. Palm currently has us in as a #9 seed.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[xukeith]

Not sure I'm buying what Jerry is selling, but Mr. Palm currently has us in as a #9 seed.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

I imagine seeds 10-12 are very sad teams with a small amount of credentials.
Lose @ DePaul and it all starts from scratch.
Need 19 wins.

[noteggs]

At first when I looked at the bracket, said except for potential second game looks like a good bracket to be in. After looking at others, said same thing. Tournament is going to be wide open and fun to watch (as usual).

[xcellentx]

Not sure I'm buying what Jerry is selling, but Mr. Palm currently has us in as a #9 seed.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

A 9 seed does seem pretty high since he didn't have us in the last time. A top 10-15 road win is going to be huge compared to most other bubble teams.

Our saving grace is that 7 of our losses are considered Q1 and only 1 Q2 loss, and we have 6 Q1 games left on the schedule with the rest being Q2. So if we get the 6 wins I think we need to be comfortably in we could have a total of 6 Q1 wins which could be more than some of the other bubble teams have played.

[OTRMUSKIE]

All X has to do is go 7-4 although 6-4 might be enough this year. I’m including beast tournament. They have 6 winnable games on the schedule but they have to play as a team and not individual basketball. I think we are going to make the dance bois. It’s so great having such an awesome and talented head coach.

[GoMuskies]

9 games left. 5-4 is plenty.

[xukeith]

I think X needs 2 more Q1 wins and at least 1 win vs Butler or Villanova.

9-9 is a lock.
8-10 is ehh maybe.

[noteggs]

This guy makes a pretty good case on why more Big East teams should make the tournament.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/big-east-win-targets.html

[scoscox]

This guy makes a pretty good case on why more Big East teams should make the tournament.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/big-east-win-targets.html

completely agree that the big east is being undervalued right now

[xcellentx]

This guy makes a pretty good case on why more Big East teams should make the tournament.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2020/02/big-east-win-targets.html

Great article. I agree with them that any BE team that gets to 9-9 (Except Providence) is going to make the dance. I completely agree with the 5 wins probably gets us in, will be dicey if we lose the first game in the BE tourney. 6 comfortably gets us in. 4 wins makes it so we need to do something in the BE tourney. St Johns is currently 77 in the Net, but if they move up we would only have 2 Q2 games left on the schedule. And even though Wake is bad, they are still 107 in the Net. They don't have to do a whole lot to stay better than the 135 ranking it would take to stay a Q2 loss.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

This board has gone from pitchforks and raiding the castle to shopping for dancing shoes in the matter of 4 days. Amazing what that win in NJ did for the collective psyche of this board.

I have a feeling the jerk back to reality / doom & gloom tomorrow is going to be swift and going to be painful. A loss to lowly DePaul is going to be quite the bucket of cold water.

I hope like crazy that we find a way tonight and actually build a little momentum!!!

[scoscox]

This board has gone from pitchforks and raiding the castle to shopping for dancing shoes in the matter of 4 days. Amazing what that win in NJ did for the collective psyche of this board.

I have a feeling the jerk back to reality / doom & gloom tomorrow is going to be swift and going to be painful. A loss to lowly DePaul is going to be quite the bucket of cold water.

I hope like crazy that we find a way tonight and actually build a little momentum!!!

hear, hear. come on, boys.

[scoscox]

the thing that worries me about depaul is that they have the dudes to match our physicality. gonna be a tough one tonight

[Mrs. Garrett]

the thing that worries me about depaul is that they have the dudes to match our physicality. gonna be a tough one tonight

I don't think X will dominate the boards like they did against SH. Reed is a tough match up for anyone of our bigs. Charlie Moore is talented and capable of a big game, but is prone to a lot of over dribbling and taking bad shots. Weems is talented, but not confident and passes up a lot of open shots, but a solid defender who can guard 4 positions. Coleman-Lands is usually the wild card. He's been on fire in most of their big wins.

[scoscox]

I don't think X will dominate the boards like they did against SH. Reed is a tough match up for anyone of our bigs. Charlie Moore is talented and capable of a big game, but is prone to a lot of over dribbling and taking bad shots. Weems is talented, but not confident and passes up a lot of open shots, but a solid defender who can guard 4 positions. Coleman-Lands is usually the wild card. He's been on fire in most of their big wins.

they're very similar to us in a lot of ways. hopefully steele > leitao and our playmakers>their playmakers

[xcellentx]

This board has gone from pitchforks and raiding the castle to shopping for dancing shoes in the matter of 4 days. Amazing what that win in NJ did for the collective psyche of this board.

I have a feeling the jerk back to reality / doom & gloom tomorrow is going to be swift and going to be painful. A loss to lowly DePaul is going to be quite the bucket of cold water.

I hope like crazy that we find a way tonight and actually build a little momentum!!!

A top 10-15 win on the road changes a lot of things, lol. Mainly it just gives us a lot more wiggle room. The great thing is that a loss @DePaul doesn't kill us, and a win is still a Q1 win. This is still a big game and one of our better chances to get another big road win.

[GoMuskies]

Joe Lunardi has Xavier as the 4th team out, meaning that Lunardi and Palm have Xavier rated close to 20 spots apart. That's pretty zany on February 4th.

[xcellentx]

Joe Lunardi has Xavier as the 4th team out, meaning that Lunardi and Palm have Xavier rated close to 20 spots apart. That's pretty zany on February 4th.

Bracket Matrix has us as the first one out, avg seed 10.90, with one other person seeding us at 9 as well.

[X-band '01]

they're very similar to us in a lot of ways. hopefully steele > leitao and our playmakers>their playmakers

One of those similarities is free throw shooting (or lack thereof). FT defense will be a huge factor tonight!

[noteggs]

I don't think X will dominate the boards like they did against SH. Reed is a tough match up for anyone of our bigs. Charlie Moore is talented and capable of a big game, but is prone to a lot of over dribbling and taking bad shots. Weems is talented, but not confident and passes up a lot of open shots, but a solid defender who can guard 4 positions. Coleman-Lands is usually the wild card. He's been on fire in most of their big wins.

You know I thought the same about Reed being there, but think SH has a better front-court overall. What Tyrique did with those guys was amazing and hope some translates. Hope this post ages well!

[sgarcia]

Joe Lunardi has Xavier as the 4th team out, meaning that Lunardi and Palm have Xavier rated close to 20 spots apart. That's pretty zany on February 4th.

I could be wrong but I think Lunardi puts the bracket together based on what he thinks the committee will do. Palm's bracket is his personal opinion. It's probably why you see a big difference.

[xukeith]

We are a month away for Selection Sunday and I follow all the bracket guesses.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

Today - First 4 OUT

[noteggs]

Another site that’s interesting to look at. Just click on Xavier and you can see our NET history and breaks down quad games.

https://bracketologists.com/

[paulxu]

Jeez I hate to see us so far down the list on those things.

[HenryMuto]

I could be wrong but I think Lunardi puts the bracket together based on what he thinks the committee will do. Palm's bracket is his personal opinion. It's probably why you see a big difference.

Palm is trying to predict what the committee will do just as much as Joe L is but Palm sucks at his job. Palm ranks 85th out of 133 people that have done this the last 5 years (it keeps a 5 year running tally).

Also I have beat Palm heads up like 13 out of 15 years in bracket score so......either I should have his job or he sucks or a little of both.

[HenryMuto]

Here is the guy you want to be following he ranks #1 on bracket matrix the last 5 years. He has X as the last team in as of Feb 3rd.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

[beatuc]

Here is the guy you want to be following he ranks #1 on bracket matrix the last 5 years. He has X as the last team in as of Feb 3rd.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

And now has X as a 10 seed with UC being the last team in as of this morning.

[xcellentx]

Another site thatÂ’s interesting to look at. Just click on Xavier and you can see our NET history and breaks down quad games.

https://bracketologists.com/

Thanks, I have been looking for something like this that uses the NET. It is sometimes fun to see how the sheets might change come Selection Sunday.

It doesn't seem like any Q3 wins can move up to Q2. Wake should continue to be a Q2 loss which is good. UConn got a big win over Tulsa and sit at 69 to stay Q2a and shouldn't drop out of Q2. TCU is right on the edge of dropping to Q2, hopefully they can stay Q1.

DePaul and St John's might have a big impact on our resume. Both Away games are Q1 and both home Q2, but St John's is hovering right on the cut line at 72 and DePaul at 66. Just shows how big that Seton Hall win is, basically a lock on a Q1a win.

Basically, I don't think any specific game is a must win at this point, just need to make sure we get a couple more. Getting at least one in the three games left with Butler and Nova would be huge though to lock down another big Q1 win that would make it really hard to leave us out.

[xcellentx]

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ also jumped us in now, 11 seed and I think one of the last 4 in. Jumped from I think 33 brackets the other day to 59 now so moving up in the world.

[GoMuskies]

UC's resurgence is certainly a boon to our bubble status. Given that Brannen seems harmless, I can live with it.

[sgarcia]

Palm is trying to predict what the committee will do just as much as Joe L is but Palm sucks at his job. Palm ranks 85th out of 133 people that have done this the last 5 years (it keeps a 5 year running tally).

Also I have beat Palm heads up like 13 out of 15 years in bracket score so......either I should have his job or he sucks or a little of both.

Palm is in the CBI of bracket predictors.

[Xville]

Go 5-3 the rest of the way, we are in. I'm now a bracktologist.

[SemajParlor]

Go 5-3 the rest of the way, we are in. I'm now a bracktologist.

Yep, texted the same to my friend. 20-11 and 9-9 will get us in for sure.

[Muskie]

NBC Sports Analysis: (https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/02/07/ncaa-tournament-bubble-watch-2/)

Top 9: Seton Hall (NBC: 2), Villanova (NBC: 3), Butler (NBC: 4), Creighton (NBC: 5), Marquette (NBC: 6)


XAVIER (NET: 47, NBC: 10): Xavier followed up their resume-defining win at Seton Hall (13) by going into Chicago and picking off DePaul (66). The Musketeers have now won back-to-back games for the first time since Dec. 22nd, and they are both Quad 1 wins. As it stands, they are now 3-7 against Quad 1 opponents and 6-8 against the top two quads. They suddenly have the resume of a team that might have some room to spare. What a weeks for Travis Steele. With two games left against Butler (12) and a visit from Villanova (15) left on their schedule, the Musketeers still have a couple of more chances, too.

GEORGETOWN (NET: 52, NBC: Next four out): The Hoyas dropped to 13-10 on the season with a loss at home to Seton Hall (13) on Wednesday. Georgetown has now lost four out of five and six out of nine. They have just one loss that is not a Quad 1 loss, but a 2-9 mark against Quad 1 opponents isn’t going to get the job done. They’ve beaten one team in the top 55 in the NET. They have plenty of work to do.

PROVIDENCE (NET: 55, NBC: Off the bubble): I’m mentioning the Friars here because they’ve won seven of their last 11 games and now have four Quad 1 wins after knocking off Butler (12) in Hinkle and Creighton (21) at home this week. They have four Quad 3 and 4 losses, however, and I’m not sure how many more losses a 13-10 team with that many bad losses can take. But they’ve seemingly turned a corner. We’ll see if the run can continue.

ST. JOHN’S (NET: 77, NBC: Off the bubble): The Johnnies lost for the eight time in their last ten games when Georgetown (52) came back from down double-digits in the second half in MSG without Mac McClung. That’s not ideal. St. John’s is still in the mix because of wins over West Virginia (9) and Arizona (8), the latter of which came on a neutral court. But the Johnnies have now lost eight of their last 10 games. Their only wins since Christmas came against DePaul (66). I’m going to leave them here for the time being since they still have to play: at Creighton (21), at Seton Hall (13), at Villanova (15), Creighton (21), at Butler (12), Marquette (23). If they go 3-3 in those games and hold serve against Providence (55) and Xavier (46) at home, they’ll be a very interesting bubble team.

[chico]

Lunardi now has us as one of the last 4 in.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[Muskie]

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/02/10/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-projection-bubble/

Slide us over to the St. Louis pod and we could have quite a redemption trip...

[paulxu]

You have to believe there are folks who want to see Dayton have a chance at us.

[Muskie]

You have to believe there are folks who want to see Dayton have a chance at us.

True. But I'll take the OSU and winner gets Louisville bracket.

[xudash]

You have to believe there are folks who want to see Dayton have a chance at us.

Perhaps the same Goober VD fans who thought they had a chance against us in Orlando not too long ago?

[OTRMUSKIE]

GIVE ME DAYTON!!!!! Louisville is legit but as the season goes on Dayton clearly isnt as great as I thought they were. They are still very good but they are A-10 good. GIVE ME DAYTON. A

[OTRMUSKIE]

Also who is this idiot working for ESPN BUBBLE WATCH?

will need to call upon its road-warrior spirit. Games at Butler and St. John's are up next, and even at this late date, this is still a team that could well finish under .500 in conference play. Will the committee focus on the win in Newark at the expense of, say, an 8-10 record in a good but not especially mighty Big East? It might be better not to test the question

Good BIG EAST? Are you kidding me? It’s the #2 ranked conference with 5 ranked teams plus Xavier. Yes they are mighty this year. You know who isn’t mighty? YOUR ACC currently ranked 6th.

[xudash]

GIVE ME DAYTON!!!!! Louisville is legit but as the season goes on Dayton clearly isnt as great as I thought they were. They are still very good but they are A-10 good. GIVE ME DAYTON. A

I think we would destroy them.

I get that they took Kansas to OT, but that was ages ago. VD couldn't handle BE level competition night in and night out. And I would like our chances now, given how we're playing now and especially due to our defense.

[atljar]

Ya history says we arent going to lose to VD. It would be cool to add Trump's face to the lineup though!

[GoMuskies]

Ya history says we arent going to lose to VD. It would be cool to add Trump's face to the lineup though!

That's sort of mixing apples and pork bellies, though, given that the streak is about Dayton's inability to win at Xavier. Unfortunately, they beat us more than a few times during that stretch.

I've got Dayton with 22 wins over Xavier since the Jimmy Carter streak started. I've got Xavier with 45 wins in the same timeframe.

[AviatorX]

I hate to say it, but I think people are really underestimating Dayton. Their offense is good enough that when it's rolling, it doesn't matter what your defense looks like. Their computer numbers are through the roof.

I'll be rooting for them to go cold and suffer a gut wrenching second round loss to a mediocre ACC team.

[muskiefan82]

I'll be rooting for them to go cold and suffer a gut wrenching second round loss to a mediocre ACC team.

I'm not running for anything, but I approve of this message

[xudash]

I hate to say it, but I think people are really underestimating Dayton. Their offense is good enough that when it's rolling, it doesn't matter what your defense looks like. Their computer numbers are through the roof.

I'll be rooting for them to go cold and suffer a gut wrenching second round loss to a mediocre ACC team.

Generated against teams like LossSalle, Fordham, GW....see where I'm going with this.

And it's VD. Who said they would even make it to the second round. How about a first round upset by Arkansas Pigs Knuckle University.

[X Factor]

Generated against teams like LossSalle, Fordham, GW....see where I'm going with this.

And it's VD. Who said they would even make it to the second round. How about a first round upset by Arkansas Pigs Knuckle University.

This kind of sounds like what we had to hear from other fan bases when we were in the A10.

Anything can happen in the NCAA tournament. Upsets happen...

[xudash]

This kind of sounds like what we had to hear from other fan bases when we were in the A10.

Anything can happen in the NCAA tournament. Upsets happen...

With one important distinction: when we were in the A10, so was Temple and for one year Butler. When we were in the A10 early on, so was Virginia Tech (not that they accomplished much, but still). The A10 when we were in it actually gave the BE a slight run for a few years. Think in terms of the Xavier and St. Joe's year we both made it to the E8 (their Jameer Nelson years).

I agree that anything can happen in the NCAAT.

But the A10 is a shell of its former self and I believe that to be rather irrefutable.

[GoMuskies]

The A-10 is definitely down. But Dayton is really, really good despite their league. Like Gonzaga. Like San Diego State. I don't mind if we get Dayton, because that means we're in the second round! But we'd rightly be significant dogs. Certainly a game we'd be capable of winning, though.

[xcellentx]

Also who is this idiot working for ESPN BUBBLE WATCH?

will need to call upon its road-warrior spirit. Games at Butler and St. John's are up next, and even at this late date, this is still a team that could well finish under .500 in conference play. Will the committee focus on the win in Newark at the expense of, say, an 8-10 record in a good but not especially mighty Big East? It might be better not to test the question

Good BIG EAST? Are you kidding me? It’s the #2 ranked conference with 5 ranked teams plus Xavier. Yes they are mighty this year. You know who isn’t mighty? YOUR ACC currently ranked 6th.

His point about the Big East is stupid.

I will agree with him that I would rather not test it with only an 8-10 record, but 8-10 almost definitely gets us in, especially if we get at least one from our 3 games with Butler and Nova. They have to fill out the tournament, and there are a lot of conferences that are under performing. It would not be a surprise if the ACC only gets 3 teams, and the American and A-10 only get 1. Not to mention the WCC which could get 2-3 or only get 1.

[xubrew]

I like how they list who the last four in are. As if you couldn't tell by just seeing which teams are in the First Four.

[atljar]

That's sort of mixing apples and pork bellies, though, given that the streak is about Dayton's inability to win at Xavier. Unfortunately, they beat us more than a few times during that stretch.

I've got Dayton with 22 wins over Xavier since the Jimmy Carter streak started. I've got Xavier with 45 wins in the same timeframe.

Point understood, but common, doesnt this look good?! https://kitchen.nine.com.au/recipes/roast-pork-belly-with-caramelised-apples/a9fcca4a-5d4d-46ce-83d4-d86ef3e73f60

[JTG]

But the A10 is a shell of its former self and I believe that to be rather irrefutable.[/QUOTE]

Not to be overly contrary, but the MCC wasn't exactly Murderer's Row when we took down Mourning & Mutombo. Crazy happens in the NCAA.

[xudash]

But the A10 is a shell of its former self and I believe that to be rather irrefutable.

Not to be overly contrary, but the MCC was exactly Murderer's Row when we took down Mourning & Mutombo. Crazy happens in the NCAA.[/QUOTE]

I don’t think you’re being overly contrary. I get the point about “anything goes “ in the NCAAT.

However, specific to the A10 Conference and nothing else, it simply isn’t what it used to be.

[xubrew]

The A10 is EXACTLY what it used to be. That's....what's wrong with it.

When Xavier was in it and after it went to 14 teams, it was a bloated league that finished between 8th and 10th overall among all the conferences. It usually had one (or in some good years, two) top 25 teams, sent around 3 to the NCAA Tournament, and then it was a few more NIT teams and then a bunch of MAC caliber teams. And then Fordham, who wasn't even an NEC caliber team.

It's the same now. It's exactly the same. The only thing that's really changed is some of the names on the office door. It's still between the 8th and 10th league every year, there is still typically one team in the rankings every year. This year it's Dayton, in previous years it was Rhode Island, and before that it was VCU. There are generally one or two more teams that make the tournament, and the rest is sludge.

The A10 is the same now as it was when we were in it. That's why we wanted out of it. And the commissioner is still an idiot.

[GoMuskies]

Lunardi has us as one of the last four byes this week and a #11 seed. It sure would be nice to beat Butler and get to more solid footing, but given where we were two weeks ago it's pretty hard to complain about our status. Lunardi also has Wichita State as one of the last 4 with a bye, but I don't see it with the way they're floundering. They seem like a Dayton team at best right now, but it's February 11, so we'll see. Cincinnati is the first team out according to Joe, but I think they're on the rise. I could see them only losing once more the rest of the way to Ft. Worth.

It's starting to get interesting!

[xubrew]

Lunardi has us as one of the last four byes this week and a #11 seed. It sure would be nice to beat Butler and get to more solid footing, but given where we were two weeks ago it's pretty hard to complain about our status. Lunardi also has Wichita State as one of the last 4 with a bye, but I don't see it with the way they're floundering. They seem like a Dayton team at best right now, but it's February 11, so we'll see. Cincinnati is the first team out according to Joe, but I think they're on the rise. I could see them only losing once more the rest of the way to Ft. Worth.

It's starting to get interesting!

Here's the thing. On paper, X probably looks like a 11 seed. On the court, they look MUCH better than that right now. And, we've got enough season left to get much further up the seedlist. We won at Seton Hall. There are a few singular wins that teams have that are better than that (Baylor @ Kansas, Louisville @ Duke) but not many. When you look at Seton Hall and all of the teams ranked ahead of then in the NET, I believe they are a combined 128-10 at home, and one of those teams is Michigan State and I'm not sure if they should count. I'm not sure, but it wouldn't shock me if ours was the only double digit win out of those ten. It really was one of the best singular wins that any team has managed all season. Based on how we haven't lost since, it may not be an anomaly. We picked a very good time to get good.

[chico]

Are you trying to say we're sneaking up on people?

[xubrew]

are you trying to say we're sneaking up on people?

yes!! That is what we do!!

[xcellentx]

Lunardi has us as one of the last four byes this week and a #11 seed. It sure would be nice to beat Butler and get to more solid footing, but given where we were two weeks ago it's pretty hard to complain about our status. Lunardi also has Wichita State as one of the last 4 with a bye, but I don't see it with the way they're floundering. They seem like a Dayton team at best right now, but it's February 11, so we'll see. Cincinnati is the first team out according to Joe, but I think they're on the rise. I could see them only losing once more the rest of the way to Ft. Worth.

It's starting to get interesting!

I don't really see anything about WSU's resume that makes it better than ours, and it wouldn't be a surprise if they finished the season 3-5. For that matter, I don't see much comparison between our resume and any of the other last 4 byes. The only reason to have Florida ahead of us is the head to head win and Virginia doesn't have much to show for themselves. Even looking at his other 10 seeds (Arkansas, Purdue, and USC) I don't see much that shows they have better resume's than us either.

I wouldn't be surprised if this is just a bit of a hold over waiting for us to prove it one more time before he jumps us up.

A win on Wednesday @Butler would surely jump us up ahead of them.

[xukeith]

I'm sick of "little Xavier" sneaking up on people.
X should be expected in the tourney every year.
Nobody says, "boy! Gonzaga looks surprisingly good this year!" or "hey that Arizona team is good!"

High expectations demand results.

[Xavier]

I'm sick of "little Xavier" sneaking up on people.
X should be expected in the tourney every year.
Nobody says, "boy! Gonzaga looks surprisingly good this year!" or "hey that Arizona team is good!"

High expectations demand results.

They are. Hence why everyone was questioning steele about two weeks ago when seeing the real possibility of missing the tournament two years in a row.

[xubrew]

I'm sick of "little Xavier" sneaking up on people.
X should be expected in the tourney every year.
Nobody says, "boy! Gonzaga looks surprisingly good this year!" or "hey that Arizona team is good!"

High expectations demand results.

My comments were tongue in cheek, and I'm pretty sure everyone else's were as well. I mean, nobody REALLY says that about Xavier outside of this board, and most of the people who say it here are either half kidding or totally kidding.

[94GRAD]

My comments were tongue in cheek, and I'm pretty sure everyone else's were as well. I mean, nobody REALLY says that about Xavier outside of this board, and most of the people who say it here are either half kidding or totally kidding.

XUKeith doesn't read sarcasm font well

[chico]

My comments were tongue in cheek, and I'm pretty sure everyone else's were as well. I mean, nobody REALLY says that about Xavier outside of this board, and most of the people who say it here are either half kidding or totally kidding.

Exactly.

[GoMuskies]

Sneaking up forever!
Being ranked never!

[xukeith]

Sneaking up forever!
Being ranked never!

It is the Steele Way.

[GoMuskies]

i'm not saying Lunardi is right, but as of today, he's still got Xavier in the first four byes category. So IF he's right, I'd say we're still on relatively shaky ground. One win this week would go a long way towards firmer footing!

He still has UC in (in Dayton). Wichita State's rally from 24 down at SMU yesterday has so far only earned them a trip to Dayton according to Lunardi.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[AviatorX]

i'm not saying Lunardi is right, but as of today, he's still got Xavier in the first four byes category. So IF he's right, I'd say we're still on relatively shaky ground. One win this week would go a long way towards firmer footing!

He still has UC in (in Dayton). Wichita State's rally from 24 down at SMU yesterday has so far only earned them a trip to Dayton according to Lunardi.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Lunardi seems to be shuffling those last 8 teams around so often that he's releasing an update when Evansville/Southern Illinois goes final. I guess he really needed to up his twitter content this season.

[D-West & PO-Z]

i'm not saying Lunardi is right, but as of today, he's still got Xavier in the first four byes category. So IF he's right, I'd say we're still on relatively shaky ground. One win this week would go a long way towards firmer footing!

He still has UC in (in Dayton). Wichita State's rally from 24 down at SMU yesterday has so far only earned them a trip to Dayton according to Lunardi.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Yeah I am confused though because he has us as a 9 seed in the last 4 byes category, while he has teams seeded at 10 that are not in last 4 byes like Oklahoma and AZ State. I'm not sure I get that.

[Xville]

I'd feel a lot better if x wins one of these last two. I'd not feel good about having a 8-10 conference record and a high probability of getting in or avoiding the pig

[xcellentx]

Yeah I am confused though because he has us as a 9 seed in the last 4 byes category, while he has teams seeded at 10 that are not in last 4 byes like Oklahoma and AZ State. I'm not sure I get that.

Yeah, that doesn't really make sense. I don't know if he is doing some weird thing where he thinks that is where the committee would rank us if the season ended today but maybe thinks we have more work to do to actually get in than say OU or ASU?

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/ I don't think has been updated through yesterday's games, but we are the first 10 seed and it has 9 At-Large teams behind us as opposed to 7 At-Large's in Lunardi's bracket. If you added OU and ASU behind us because they are seeded behind us it would be the same. I wouldn't be surprised if we moved up though once all the brackets are updated.

I think we are still in decent shape, and I think one more win would be all we need to definitely get us in. Lose these 2 and we will be sweating it out a bit, and we would definitely play DePaul in the BE tourney and would have to win that one.

[GoMuskies]

Can we take away the "bracket rights" for the person who has Minnesota in as an 8 seed (and Xavier as an 11)?

[HenryMuto]

Joey brackets has Xavier as the 2nd to last team in right now. Some people here think Xavier has a tourney bid locked up.

Better beat Butler.

[HenryMuto]

The #1 ranked bracket guy has Xavier as the 5th team in (last bye team before the last 4 in)

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

[Lloyd Braun]

The #1 ranked bracket guy has Xavier as the 5th team in (last bye team before the last 4 in)

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

5th team in = 2 seed, no?


I honestly think we will be sweating it out. One win at home may not be enough if we bow out early in BET

[Backyard Champ]

One win at home to butler puts us extremely close to a lock. Guess you never know with conference tournament outcomes, but I’d feel very safe after we beat butler. Our SOS is huge for us, and compared to other bubble teams, we look great. 0 bad losses.

[AviatorX]

Joey brackets has Xavier as the 2nd to last team in right now. Some people here think Xavier has a tourney bid locked up.

Better beat Butler.

He also has IU as last four in, which is pretty bizarre.

[mid major]

Don’t know where he has Ariz St but they took a very crippling loss at home tonight against a 12-16 Wash team.

[OTRMUSKIE]

X beats butler they are in. 20 wins in the beast this year gets you in. There will be no sweating. Now if they lose to butt fuk then the sweat will begin so let’s not lose to them.

[mid major]

In addition to Ariz St, Wichita St(NET 44) and Stanford(NET 25) also lost tonight. What worries me about someone like SJU winning the BET is back in 2014 we were sitting pretty and then PC came out of nowhere and won the BET essentially relegating us to Dayton for the PIG and we all know how that went. So beat Butt and hope SJU beats market.

[Double Down]

Very similar situation back in the A10 days when Lamar Odom hits a three for Rhode Island in A10 tourney to knock us out and sent us to the nit.

[GoMuskies]

According to Lunardi, if today was Selection Sunday there would be a lot of local flavor in Dayton. He has Xavier, UC and IU all in the opening round as three of the last four teams in.

[xubrew]

According to Lunardi, if today was Selection Sunday there would be a lot of local flavor in Dayton. He has Xavier, UC and IU all in the opening round as three of the last four teams in.

That just seems way off. Xavier seems like they should be way inside the bubble, and UC seems like they shouldn't be in the field. But...whatever. He's just guessing, and you never really know.

[paulxu]

If you have an Athletic subscription, this is an interesting article about the NET:

https://theathletic.com/1658164/2020/03/06/bracket-watch-will-some-peculiar-net-ratings-cause-seed-madness/

[UCGRAD4X]

If you have an Athletic subscription, this is an interesting article about the NET:

https://theathletic.com/1658164/2020/03/06/bracket-watch-will-some-peculiar-net-ratings-cause-seed-madness/

:clap: "O-VER-RA-TED" :clap:

[xcellentx]

Lunardi was apparently really impressed with Stanford's loss to Oregon St that he moved them up in the bracket.

He has Rutgers ahead of us, but it will be interesting to see what the committee does with them. They currently have 1 win away from home @Nebraska NET 193. They have better wins than we do but I think you can make a strong case that we have a better resume.

Lunardi's bracket seems to value the big wins much more than the bad losses, every other team of the last 8 in has worse losses than we do. I also think he and a lot of others are valuing TTU too highly as well, I think there is a strong case that we have an equal if not better resume to them.

I don't want to test losing out because that would mean a loss to DePaul as well. I think getting a win over Butler will get us in, but if we end up playing DePaul in the BET even though it would be a Q2 game, the strength of our resume is all but one of our losses is in the top 30 of the NET. If we beat Butler and are higher than the 7 seed in the BET then we should be fine no matter what happens.

Bracketmatrix overall has us in much better shape than Lunardi, with 9 At-Large teams behind us right now.

[AviatorX]

I'm with you guys, I think Xavier is much more safely in than Lundardi does, but lets beat Butler and then we can laugh at him shuffling Stanford around at random and having Tulsa in as the auto-bid from the American even though they're like the 6th best team in that conference instead of worrying about this stuff.

[GoMuskies]

I'm with you guys, I think Xavier is much more safely in than Lundardi does, but lets beat Butler and then we can laugh at him shuffling Stanford around at random and having Tulsa in as the auto-bid from the American even though they're like the 6th best team in that conference instead of worrying about this stuff.

I'll give him a pass on the Tulsa thing. Tulsa is leading the American, and that's just his rule for selecting autobids (which is probably a good rule).

[AviatorX]

I'll give him a pass on the Tulsa thing. Tulsa is leading the American, and that's just his rule for selecting autobids (which is probably a good rule).

Oh I agree, this is just a hilarious application of it that's out of his hands obviously.

Honestly I have no idea. Tulsa could be good, but my sense is they aren't sniffing the tournament without the auto-bid.

[GoMuskies]

They're definitely not in without the auto-bid, which is why he has them as a 13 seed. Wichita should knock them out of sole possession of first place on Sunday.

[xavierj]

I'm with you guys, I think Xavier is much more safely in than Lundardi does, but lets beat Butler and then we can laugh at him shuffling Stanford around at random and having Tulsa in as the auto-bid from the American even though they're like the 6th best team in that conference instead of worrying about this stuff.

Lunardi is all over the place. After Xavier beat Georgetown he moved them to a 9. Then they lose a road game, that they were in it late to another tourney team, who is super hit right now, and he drops them to the last 4 in. Stanford loses to an NIT team and he moves them up. He is all over the place and has no idea. Just beat Butler. I would love for Xavier to be a 10 seed. They can get to the sweet 16 with that seed.

[AviatorX]

Looking at Lunardi's last 8 in - he seems to be comically low on Indiana. Having them behind Rutgers, Texas, Stanford, UCLA, Arizona State, and yes, probably even X, is very strange.

[xubrew]

Last year I thought the committee did a good job of looking at not just who teams beat, but how hard it was to win the games that they won.

Colorado is a very good team, but they have a losing record on the road, and two of those losses are at Stanford who is a bubble team at best, and at Cal who is terrible. So while beating Colorado at home certainly helps, it isn't at all the same as beating them in Boulder or on a neutral floor. The committee did a good job of looking at things like that last year. Teams like TCU and NC State really had no business in the field even though they had beaten some good teams, whereas a team like Belmont went out there and won some really tough games on the road against teams that may not have been as good, but were still a lot harder to win.

That's where I think Rutgers is in trouble. They only have one true road win, and one win away from home. No team has ever been selected who was that poor away from home, and when you look at what the committee did a year ago with everyone on the bubble who got in playing well in road/neutral games, and everyone who was left out only playing well at home, I think it's an indicator that they are still tuned into that.

[GoMuskies]

Indiana gets a big ole "Meh" from me. But in fairness, so do all of the other teams hovering anywhere near the Bubble (including, of course, Xavier).

[noteggs]

He also said yesterday that teams should be at least .500 in conference or 2 wins in conference tournament. Don’t always agree with Brian Snow, but I do on this exchange. Didn’t hear this logic in the past when the ACC or even SEC had competitive league play top to bottom.

https://twitter.com/espnlunardi/status/1235662602715492358?s=12

[xcellentx]

He also said yesterday that teams should be at least .500 in conference or 2 wins in conference tournament. Don’t always agree with Brian Snow, but I do on this exchange. Didn’t hear this logic in the past when the ACC or even SEC had competitive league play top to bottom.

https://twitter.com/espnlunardi/status/1235662602715492358?s=12


He also said yesterday that teams should be at least .500 in conference or 2 wins in conference tournament. Don’t always agree with Brian Snow, but I do on this exchange. Didn’t hear this logic in the past when the ACC or even SEC had competitive league play top to bottom.

https://twitter.com/espnlunardi/status/1235662602715492358?s=12

Snow is 100% right here. Lunardi's stance doesn't make any sense especially when you consider that a third of you schedule is out of conference. You could easily have 6 or so Q1-2 wins out of conference that would mean absolutely nothing if you are 1 game under .500 in a league where 70% or so of the teams are at least on the bubble?

9 of Xavier's conference games this year were Q1a games with 13 of 18 being Q1 games. Teams in the ACC could be playing 6-7 Q3 conference games this year, and easily 13-14 of their conference schedule being Q2-3. To automatically disqualify a team because they played over half their conference games in Q1 and were 1 game under .500 doesn't make sense.

This isn't a specific defense of X if you go under .500 but I think it helps to illustrate the point.

[X-band '01]

Last year I thought the committee did a good job of looking at not just who teams beat, but how hard it was to win the games that they won.

Colorado is a very good team, but they have a losing record on the road, and two of those losses are at Stanford who is a bubble team at best, and at Cal who is terrible. So while beating Colorado at home certainly helps, it isn't at all the same as beating them in Boulder or on a neutral floor. The committee did a good job of looking at things like that last year. Teams like TCU and NC State really had no business in the field even though they had beaten some good teams, whereas a team like Belmont went out there and won some really tough games on the road against teams that may not have been as good, but were still a lot harder to win.

That's where I think Rutgers is in trouble. They only have one true road win, and one win away from home. No team has ever been selected who was that poor away from home, and when you look at what the committee did a year ago with everyone on the bubble who got in playing well in road/neutral games, and everyone who was left out only playing well at home, I think it's an indicator that they are still tuned into that.

I think Rutgers' "intent to schedule" is also a negative (see: 2019 NC State), although you can't dispute that even at home they have quality Ws like Maryland, Penn State and Seton Hall. You can't just assume that every team on the bubble would be able to accomplish that.

[X-band '01]

According to Lunardi, if today was Selection Sunday there would be a lot of local flavor in Dayton. He has Xavier, UC and IU all in the opening round as three of the last four teams in.


That just seems way off. Xavier seems like they should be way inside the bubble, and UC seems like they shouldn't be in the field. But...whatever. He's just guessing, and you never really know.

I could see Xavier in the First Four if they were to lose to either Butler at home or DePaul in the Big East Tournamen, or if you start to see other teams steal automatic bids. Right now does seem early to make that kind of supposition.

[HenryMuto]

Wow this guy doesn't even have X in the field as of today. WTF.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

Last 4 in:
Richmond
UCLA
Northern Iowa
Wichita St

Last 4 out:
Texas
Stanford
Xavier
Utah St

Next 4 out:
Rhode Island
Purdue
Cincinnati
Memphis

[JTG]

Wow this guy doesn't even have X in the field as of today. WTF.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

Last 4 in:
Richmond
UCLA
Northern Iowa
Wichita St

Last 4 out:
Texas
Stanford
Xavier
Utah St

Next 4 out:
Rhode Island
Purdue
Cincinnati
Memphis

This guy is # 75 in the accuracy rating by bracket matrix. BTW, Lundardi is #55 and Palm is #85. All of the top bracketologists have us in.

[HenryMuto]

This guy is # 75 in the accuracy rating by bracket matrix. BTW, Lundardi is #55 and Palm is #85. All of the top bracketologists have us in.

100 out of 101 updated have X in. Lose tonight vs Butler and things might be different though. Win and that should all but seal the deal.

[JTG]

This guy is # 75 in the accuracy rating by bracket matrix. BTW, Lundardi is #55 and Palm is #85. All of the top bracketologists have us in.

correction, KenPom is #85, not Jerry Palm.

[bjf123]

100 out of 101 updated have X in. Lose tonight vs Butler and things might be different though. Win and that should all but seal the deal.

It’s kind of nuts that there are actually over 100 “bracketologists” that people pay attention to.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HenryMuto]

It’s kind of nuts that there are actually over 100 “bracketologists” that people pay attention to.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Those are just updated now. I think there are like 195 on that site when all is said and done come Selection Sunday.

I myself have been doing it since the 90s. I was doing it long before most people and before this site existed. Back when Joe and Palm were like the other 2 doing it plus a few others I could compare myself vs them. I have done better than Palm like 13 out of 15 years since they started tracking it on that site but last year with so many people now it doesn't take much to fall behind. In 15 years before last year I was always in the top 35 and most years top 15. Last year I was like 100th but the difference from 35th to 100th was like 4 points on the score. I have finished 1st like 3 or 4 times did so twice in the last 5 years. 1st if I was on the bracket matrix that is but I am not.

[HenryMuto]

One at large spot has possibly been poached. Not sure if Utah State would made it with a loss today.

Best to beat Butler tonight.

[HenryMuto]

Wow this guy doesn't even have X in the field as of today. WTF.

http://bracketball.blogspot.com/

Last 4 in:
Richmond
UCLA
Northern Iowa
Wichita St

Last 4 out:
Texas
Stanford
Xavier
Utah St

Next 4 out:
Rhode Island
Purdue
Cincinnati
Memphis

Now I feel like a fool for calling this guy out on his site after that sickening loss.

[stammina0721]

Those are just updated now. I think there are like 195 on that site when all is said and done come Selection Sunday.

I myself have been doing it since the 90s. I was doing it long before most people and before this site existed. Back when Joe and Palm were like the other 2 doing it plus a few others I could compare myself vs them. I have done better than Palm like 13 out of 15 years since they started tracking it on that site but last year with so many people now it doesn't take much to fall behind. In 15 years before last year I was always in the top 35 and most years top 15. Last year I was like 100th but the difference from 35th to 100th was like 4 points on the score. I have finished 1st like 3 or 4 times did so twice in the last 5 years. 1st if I was on the bracket matrix that is but I am not.

I have to call shenanigans here. Either you are absolutely lying about the time frame or you don't like money by not capitalizing on the bracketology boom in the early 2000's.

[AviatorX]

I have to call shenanigans here. Either you are absolutely lying about the time frame or you don't like money by not capitalizing on the bracketology boom in the early 2000's.

I honestly might start a super PAC to fund a campaign encouraging HenryMuto to share his bracket with us. We need to see it.

[stammina0721]

I honestly might start a super PAC to fund a campaign encouraging HenryMuto to share his bracket with us. We need to see it.

Lol I'll second this

[HenryMuto]

I honestly might start a super PAC to fund a campaign encouraging HenryMuto to share his bracket with us. We need to see it.

I actually take vacation from work this Wednesday through Friday to watch all the conf tournament games. I am sure other people do this that don't go to the actual games but no one I actually know in real life does this.

I do my own seed list 1-68 (I don't actually put a bracket together) but I do all the seeds and I post it every year about 5 minutes before Selection Sunday. I post them on the Kentucky site each year. This year I will also post it here.

[HenryMuto]

There is a wide range of opinion on Xavier. Joey brackets has Xavier in the first 4 out now with tonight's loss.

Palm had Xavier as a 9 seed (which means way inside the bubble) before today.

The guy who is ranked #1 on the bracket matrix over the past 5 years had Xavier at 41 overall (42-46 were the last 4 teams in going to Dayton) before today.

[HenryMuto]

A lot of teams near the cut line lost today.

Bubble teams that were projected to be in by most people before today that lost

Texas lost at home to a bad Oklahoma State team
Stanford lost at Oregon
Texas Tech lost at home to Kansas
UCLA lost at USC in exact same fashion as Xavier lost.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Bubble teams that were on the outside looking in before today

Purdue lost at home to Rutgers
Arkansas lost at Texas A&M
Tennessee lost at home to Auburn
South Carolina lost at Vanderbilt

[UCGRAD4X]

The next question is, how many teams that should not be in at all that are now in such as Utah. If those teams were basically out anyway, they matter les than these bracket stealers.

[UCGRAD4X]

I would say just win two in the tournament but I'm not sure we can get past DePaul to get that second game.

[X-band '01]

I would say just win two in the tournament but I'm not sure we can get past DePaul to get that second game.

Get off the ledge. I'm not worried about DePaul on Wednesday.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I think we beat DePaul if we lose to DePaul then do you think I can get good NIT tix?

[xavierj]

I don’t think Xavier is in. I don’t think they beat enough good teams. In my opinion I think they need to win two in the BET. They had to have that last night and let it slip away.

[stammina0721]

I don’t think Xavier is in. I don’t think they beat enough good teams. In my opinion I think they need to win two in the BET. They had to have that last night and let it slip away.

Their fate will be decided today. Tomorrow the at large teams will be sejected then that changes as buds are stolen. Our performance in BET outside of winning it will mean next to nothing

[drudy23]

Their fate will be decided today. Tomorrow the at large teams will be sejected then that changes as buds are stolen. Our performance in BET outside of winning it will mean next to nothing

Huh?

[OTRMUSKIE]

He is talking about the NCAA BUD TOURNAMENT. It’s held in colorodo every year.

[drudy23]

Probably alot of bud stealers in that tournament.

[paulxu]

This bud is for you.

[HenryMuto]

Memphis lost today so that is good. That's 1 less team to worry about.

Root for East Tennessee State to win their conference tournament they could make it as at large if they lost it.

I don't think Northern Iowa is going to get in but it been best if they had won their tournament but since they lost in the 1st game that probably pushes them out.

Texas vs Texas Tech in the quarters of the Big 12 tournament as the 4/5 matchup is huge both teams are bubble but I think Texas Tech has a better chance to get in with a loss so I would root for Texas Tech to beat Texas and hopefully knock out Texas. Of course if your greedy you could root for Texas to win then lose their next game and maybe both be out but maybe both be in as well.

The #1 ranked bracket guy has Xavier in the last 4 in. Has them at the top of that list Xaiver, Stanford, Texas Tech, NC State.
His first 4 out are Texas, Cincinnati, Richmond and Wichita State.

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/s-curve/

[GoMuskies]

Huh?

Don't stop him, he's rolling.

[OTRMUSKIE]

As of today we are in as a PIG with a win weds we are a lock in the PIG. Loss we are NIT. Win two we are a 10 seed. So the sun is still shining bois!!!!

[JTG]

A lot of teams near the cut line lost today.

Bubble teams that were projected to be in by most people before today that lost

Texas lost at home to a bad Oklahoma State team
Stanford lost at Oregon
Texas Tech lost at home to Kansas
UCLA lost at USC in exact same fashion as Xavier lost.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Bubble teams that were on the outside looking in before today

Purdue lost at home to Rutgers
Arkansas lost at Texas A&M
Tennessee lost at home to Auburn
South Carolina lost at Vanderbilt
Ok, so the 8 bubble teams you listed lost. 9 if you count X. So does that make us the "best of the worst" and therefore on fairly solid footing ?

[OTRMUSKIE]

This guy is ranked the most accurate bracketologist. Joey donuts is ranked the 40th.
https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

[xavierj]

I don’t know. I just don’t think this team gets in. Maybe it’s because I am so close to it but just don’t have a good feeling. Lunardi typically sucks at seeds but I think he is usually pretty close on teams that get in.

[OTRMUSKIE]

We are in 89/91 brackets. Just like global warming I’m going to go with the majority. 5 road wins. No bad losses, plus Scruggs was out last two games. Xavier is getting in with a win weds and no huge upsets. A lot still has to go Xavier’s way. But I’m on record right now saying not only will X make the dance but they will make the sweet 16 and go further then any other team in Ohio.

[xukeith]

Here is analysis from Bart

As it is today he rates X as being one of the last four with a bye.
If you click resumes similar, you will see all 10 past resumes are at-large teams in NCAA. I hope he is right. Just beat DePaul. If X can't beat Depaul, then they should not go to any postseason


http://www.barttorvik.com/tranketology.php

[X-band '01]

I don’t think Xavier is in. I don’t think they beat enough good teams. In my opinion I think they need to win two in the BET. They had to have that last night and let it slip away.

That's a fair point in that Xavier's quantity of wins is okay but the quality is lacking.

On the other hand, the only real bad loss Xavier has was at Wake. That's almost nothing when you compare that to the Cincinnatis, Wichita States and Stanfords of the bubble.

[OTRMUSKIE]

We are fine if you look at all the other bubble teams only Indiana has a better resume and that’s debatable
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[xukeith]

Nobody knows for 100% certainty. It is speculation. One game doesn't kill X. It is a resume of totality.

[OTRMUSKIE]

X resume doesn’t excite you but it’s not bad either. Beast is ranked 1, we are 43. We are fine if we win weds.

[JTG]

Of the top 20 bracketoligists, 8 have X as a 10, 4 have us as 11, and 1 at 9. The rest don't have info for free, or haven't done projections yet. This was from Bracket matrix rating list
Based on the last 5 yrs.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I don’t know. I just don’t think this team gets in. Maybe it’s because I am so close to it but just don’t have a good feeling. Lunardi typically sucks at seeds but I think he is usually pretty close on teams that get in.

This is pretty common for die hard fans honestly I think. We want to temper disappointment.

We win Wednesday I feel pretty solid about us being in, it just might be in dayton.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I’m okay with the PIG this year. let’s just get in. I like our chances against teams outside the beast. Not sure why and I probably shouldn’t but I think X can win a game or two with Scruggs back.

[xavierj]

I’m okay with the PIG this year. let’s just get in. I like our chances against teams outside the beast. Not sure why and I probably shouldn’t but I think X can win a game or two with Scruggs back.

I actually feel the same. If Xavier get in, I think they can actually win games with the way they are capable of playing defense. Hopefully they go to New York locked into for every minute.

[Xavier]

I think X is in with a win over DePaul- and with that win it’s 50/50 of play in game or just in. But frankly if X gets left out I don’t think it’s crazy. They have what, 2 wins over tournament teams?

[xcellentx]

Just beat DePaul and then let things fall as they may. At least Nova didn't smack us by 30 points this year, so who knows what happens in that game.

I understand being underwhelmed by Xavier's resume, but that's what it's like as a bubble team. We will see what wins out, our lack of top quality wins or that we have only one loss outside of the top30 in the NET and one of the only teams on the bubble to not have a Q3-4 loss.

[GoMuskies]

Lunardi says one of first 4 out. Palm says we're a 10 seed and not even in Dayton for a PIG. Both updated this morning. I always knew I liked Palm better than Lunardi!

[xcellentx]

Lunardi says one of first 4 out. Palm says we're a 10 seed and not even in Dayton for a PIG. Both updated this morning. I always knew I liked Palm better than Lunardi!

Lunardi has a thing about teams that go under .500 in conference so that might be part of it.

[Muskie]

Lunardi has a thing about teams that go under .500 in conference so that might be part of it.

As well as something against teams that don't have ties to ESPN.

[SM#24]

I think if we beat DePaul, we're in...First Four at worst, 10 at best. If we lose, I think we're out. First Four at best, 2 seed in NIT at worst.

[scoscox]

Both games against nova were very winnable. Our defense was great in both games. In the first, we hit 1 three and in the second we missed 30 layups. If we can improve slightly offensively and maintain the defense it’s a very winnable game

[D-West & PO-Z]

Lunardi says one of first 4 out. Palm says we're a 10 seed and not even in Dayton for a PIG. Both updated this morning. I always knew I liked Palm better than Lunardi!

Yeah and the cumulative brackets on bracket matrix have us the top 11 seed avoiding Dayton.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Both games against nova were very winnable. Our defense was great in both games. In the first, we hit 1 three and in the second we missed 30 layups. If we can improve slightly offensively and maintain the defense it’s a very winnable game

I am lamenting in the Butler loss until Wednesday where if we beat DePaul I will then be back to being irrationally optimistic and thinking we can beat Nova if we just do a few things better. Ha

[OTRMUSKIE]

I never hated any team in the beast. But I now officially wish Butler harm. I’m glad too bc it’s nice to have rivals like that.

[Go Go Golston]

I went to the Butler board and saw what you'd expect to see but a guy made an interesting point. after KB made the shot, there was nothing from him. That's his 4th game winner this season. Just plays the game and acts like he's been there before. Kind of makes Jones' antics seem to appear like balsa wood.
I just was never a big fan of that screaming stuff. Just play the game.

[HenryMuto]

A win vs DePaul is a must. Probably will lose to Nova after that. That was the 1 team I did not want to see.

I don't know guys. This is going to be close. Either going to be in Dayton or have a home game as a #1 seed is how I see it if it plays out beat DePaul and lose to Nova.

I think it is a 50/50 shot to get in best root for East Tenn State tonight.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I went to the Butler board and saw what you'd expect to see but a guy made an interesting point. after KB made the shot, there was nothing from him. That's his 4th game winner this season. Just plays the game and acts like he's been there before. Kind of makes Jones' antics seem to appear like balsa wood.
I just was never a big fan of that screaming stuff. Just play the game.

I am almost positive he was looking into the crowd and shushing him. Which I have no problem with.

[D-West & PO-Z]

A win vs DePaul is a must. Probably will lose to Nova after that. That was the 1 team I did not want to see.

I don't know guys. This is going to be close. Either going to be in Dayton or have a home game as a #1 seed is how I see it if it plays out beat DePaul and lose to Nova.

I think it is a 50/50 shot to get in best root for East Tenn State tonight.

95.9% of bracketologists have us in right now with a cumulative seed of the 2nd best 11 seed and not in dayton. Beat DePaul and we are in and I think we avoid Dayton as well but that part is more of a toss up. Probably depends on bid stealers. Lost to Depaul and I still think we have close to a 50% chance with not too many bid stealers but I would not feel good about it and no one could complain about missing out.

[HenryMuto]

Lose to DePaul and it's NIT 95% sure.

Lose to Nova and I think it is 50/50 just not enough good wins. It will depend on what happens with other bubble teams and bid stealers.

Good news ETSU won tonight so they can't steal a bid.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Lose to DePaul and it's NIT 95% sure.

Lose to Nova and I think it is 50/50 just not enough good wins. It will depend on what happens with other bubble teams and bid stealers.

Good news ETSU won tonight so they can't steal a bid.

I saw what you said before I was just sharing that 117 out of 122 bracketologists would disagree with you.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Oh he def made a face after making the basket it just wasn’t that conspicuous

[xcellentx]

Lose to DePaul and it's NIT 95% sure.

Lose to Nova and I think it is 50/50 just not enough good wins. It will depend on what happens with other bubble teams and bid stealers.

Good news ETSU won tonight so they can't steal a bid.

I agree that we don't have enough good wins, but a win over DePaul would be 11 Q1-2 wins. There are teams on the bubble with more Q1 wins or overall better Q1 wins, but almost all of them have multiple losses in Q2-3. It will be interesting what the committee puts an emphasis on this year.

[stammina0721]

A win vs DePaul is a must. Probably will lose to Nova after that. That was the 1 team I did not want to see.

I don't know guys. This is going to be close. Either going to be in Dayton or have a home game as a #1 seed is how I see it if it plays out beat DePaul and lose to Nova.

I think it is a 50/50 shot to get in best root for East Tenn State tonight.

Dude stop. At large picks are already done. X will be in or our despite what happens tomorrow

[stammina0721]

I honestly can't believe how many of you actually believe conference tournaments mean something now. Do you honestly believe the best AD's meet up and are influenced by results in a conference tournament? No they aren't.

It's just news for "bracketology" experts to justify making a 6 figure paycheck. It's fake news and the at larges are already selected and done. It's going to take major upsets to change that and I see none left except UNC.

[X-band '01]

That would be news to the real NCAA Selection Committee that doesn't even formally start debating teams until Thursday.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I mean for the most part teams are usually in at this point but a loss or win could bump you up or down. VD loses they prob drop to a 2 seed if someone like DUKE wins the ACC, just an example not sure if DUKE really has a chance even if they do win it. A loss to a DePaul and X is def NIT and honestly should be. A win and we are a lock. Omg please don’t lose again guys!

[OTRMUSKIE]

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/

[OTRMUSKIE]

99% chance we are in let that site.

[chico]

I honestly can't believe how many of you actually believe conference tournaments mean something now. Do you honestly believe the best AD's meet up and are influenced by results in a conference tournament? No they aren't.

It's just news for "bracketology" experts to justify making a 6 figure paycheck. It's fake news and the at larges are already selected and done. It's going to take major upsets to change that and I see none left except UNC.

So you're saying a team like Indiana would not benefit from getting to the finals of the B1G? Or Texas in the Big 12? I have trouble believing that.

[GoMuskies]

So you're saying a team like Indiana would not benefit from getting to the finals of the B1G? Or Texas in the Big 12? I have trouble believing that.

He doesn't know what he's talking about. Just let him keep repeating it over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over if it makes him feel better.

[Xville]

All of this is going to be pretty moot when the ncaa cancels the tournament. I'd put it at a 50-50 chance of then doing so at this point

[GoMuskies]

All of this is going to be pretty moot when the ncaa cancels the tournament. I'd put it at a 50-50 chance of then doing so at this point

I don't see them canceling. Wouldn't be surprised by empty arenas.

[Xavier]

It won't get canceled. But agree we may not see many fans (maybe family like some conference tournaments have done?).


And conference tournaments not meaning anything in terms of the NCAA tournament is a really bad take (IF he was being serious).

[Xville]

It won't get canceled. But agree we may not see many fans (maybe family like some conference tournaments have done?).


And conference tournaments not meaning anything in terms of the NCAA tournament is a really bad take (IF he was being serious).

I hope you are right.


In terms of conference tournaments completely agree. Dumb dumb take. Of course most of the at large have been decided already, but there are spots up for grabs, to think otherwise is foolish.

[GoMuskies]

Hey, we're all going to need something to watch when we're in lockdown!

[xukeith]

Looks like YOuTube will be entertaining. I imagine the country will shutdown the NCAA March Madness. X just stated students should stay home. Schools are shutting down

[xavierj]

I hope you are right.


In terms of conference tournaments completely agree. Dumb dumb take. Of course most of the at large have been decided already, but there are spots up for grabs, to think otherwise is foolish.

I agree. Most of the spots are picked but there are a couple up for grabs. Like if Xavier wold lose tonight they could slide out. If they win it’s if they go to Dayton or not. With this Coronavirus thing I can see them putting teams closer to Dayton in that game just so they don’t have to fly, like Xavier, Cincinnati and Indiana.

[94GRAD]

I agree. Most of the spots are picked but there are a couple up for grabs. Like if Xavier wold lose tonight they could slide out. If they win it’s if they go to Dayton or not. With this Coronavirus thing I can see them putting teams closer to Dayton in that game just so they don’t have to fly, like Xavier, Cincinnati and Indiana.

All teams in the NCAA tourney take private charters. The players/Cheerleaders/band/support staff are the only ones on the plane.

[HenryMuto]

Dude stop. At large picks are already done. X will be in or our despite what happens tomorrow


I honestly can't believe how many of you actually believe conference tournaments mean something now. Do you honestly believe the best AD's meet up and are influenced by results in a conference tournament? No they aren't.

It's just news for "bracketology" experts to justify making a 6 figure paycheck. It's fake news and the at larges are already selected and done. It's going to take major upsets to change that and I see none left except UNC.

Even you don't believe what your writing here. I think about 60 of the 68 spots are nailed down. That leaves 8 at large bids pending what happens from here on out and I think this year there are more "bubble' worthy teams than in recent years. The good news is we have had only 1 bid stealer (if they even were a bid stealer) Utah State who may have made it even with a loss to SD State anyway.

The only mid major that can steal a bid is Northern Iowa I think they are out but I don't get a vote. East Tenn State would been the other but they won.

There are about 14 teams with shots for those 8 spots. So sorry but the conf tournaments do matter and X losing to DePaul would really hurt.

Hopefully no one steals a bid from 1 of the conf left Dayton and Houston being the key 2 spots if they lose that lets a bubble team or worse in.

[GoMuskies]

In the American, if Wichita State and Cincinnati play on Saturday, the winner of that game is getting in.

[xcellentx]

When teams like IU is playing Nebraska and NCSU is playing Pitt, the committee better be looking at those things.

[HenryMuto]

When teams like IU is playing Nebraska and NCSU is playing Pitt, the committee better be looking at those things.

They follow every game thus the reason they are on the committee.

NC State needs to beat Pitt for sure to get any chance to get in. Not sure they get in even with that win. If they beat Duke they get in just like if Xavier beats Nova. NC State and Xavier are in similar situation. Must win game 1 to have any chance win game 2 and in for sure lose game 2 and who knows.

[HenryMuto]

Dude stop. At large picks are already done. X will be in or our despite what happens tomorrow

Well I hope your right and Xavier makes it. Hey they have to take 68 teams right ? I think Xavier is out as of today but maybe that change. Stanford lost tonight to Cal so that helps.

[Backyard Champ]

I’m too lazy- anyone willing to tell me who to cheer against?

We certainly don’t deserve it. Maybe they look at last 3 games as we were missing Scruggs. Maybe every bubble team loses.

Reality is, it’s very easy for them to leave us out and defend it rather than put us in and defend it.

[drudy23]

I’m too lazy- anyone willing to tell me who to cheer against?

We certainly don’t deserve it. Maybe they look at last 3 games as we were missing Scruggs. Maybe every bubble team loses.

Reality is, it’s very easy for them to leave us out and defend it rather than put us in and defend it.

Don't even bother. We're not getting in.

[Backyard Champ]

We
Don't even bother. We're not getting in.

I still think there is a 40 percent chance. Saw Vegas odds that had us at a 90 percent chance at getting in even with 19 wins. Don’t agree, think we need a lot to happen, but I’m still hopeful. Which will make these next few days excruciating as it’s likely we won’t make it.


But:
We have a good amount of Q 1-2 wins,
We have zero bad losses
Top 15 SOS

Compare that to other bubble teams.. you never know. Stanford is already out of the question

[HenryMuto]

I’m too lazy- anyone willing to tell me who to cheer against?

We certainly don’t deserve it. Maybe they look at last 3 games as we were missing Scruggs. Maybe every bubble team loses.

Reality is, it’s very easy for them to leave us out and defend it rather than put us in and defend it.

Stanford (already lost)
NC State
Wichita State
Cincinnati
Richmond
Rhode Island
Texas Tech
Texas
Purdue
UCLA
Mississippi State
Arkansas

Long shot bubble teams to root against (but root for them if they play someone on the normal bubble list above)

Memphis
Saint Louis

8 spots are open by my count if no bid thieves emerge.

[Backyard Champ]

Stanford (already lost)
NC State
Wichita State
Cincinnati
Richmond
Rhode Island
Texas Tech
Texas
Purdue
UCLA
Mississippi State
Arkansas

Long shot bubble teams to root against (but root for them if they play someone on the normal bubble list above)

Memphis
Saint Louis

8 spots are open by my count if no bid thieves emerge.

Thank you.

I think Texas Tech vs Texas is PIG. So there goes another team along with Stanford, IMO.

I think one of Wichita St. and UC make it, whichever makes it to the finals of their tourney. Another team out (and maybe both out if Wichita beats UC and loses in finals)

Personally think NC State is out if they lose to Duke. Xavier resume better than theirs as it sits currently.

Honestly don’t know much about A10 schools, but can’t see them getting more than 2 in the tournament, possibly 1 bid league. Not 3 though. So let’s say one of those teams is out.

So 3 out of these 6 teams.
Texas/Texas tech
Uc/ Wichita
Rhode Island/ Richmond.

I don’t know much about the SEC teams.

Not sure about UCLA, but think they have to get to finals of Pac12, but maybe not.

Purdue has great numbers, but their record isn’t so great.

Who knows, but I think we aren’t done yet.

[Xville]

I wonder how close Marquette is going to be when they lose tonight...18-13, 8-10...losses in 7 of their last 8 to st John's and DePaul. I guess wins over Purdue and usc will save them

[drudy23]

Maybe we have a 20% shot at the play-in game? We have a 0% shot at an outright bid.

Maybe they give us the benefit of the doubt without Scruggs and give us a chance to prove it in the PIG. I don't buy it, but that's about all we can hope for at this point.

[GoMuskies]

Maybe we have a 20% shot at the play-in game? We have a 0% shot at an outright bid.


Just put us out of our misery.

[Xville]

Doubt it matters. I think there is about a 5% chance these games are even played. It normally would suck to be a Dayton fan, but it would royally suck right now....chance to go to a final four, hell even cut down the nets and tourney probably cancelled. Yikes.

[Xville]

Aac and big 10 conference just cancelled their tourneys. College basketball season is essentially over. Guessing ncaa will be cancelled in next day or so.

[HenryMuto]

Big East is playing on...........

[GoMuskies]

Big East is playing on...........

For now

[Olsingledigit]

We will NOT be in - because there will not be a tournament.,

[BMoreX]

They'll end this at halftime.

[GoMuskies]

In the unlikely event there is an NCAA Tournament, UC will get the AAC's automatic bid.

[JTG]

With many of the conferences cancelling their conference tournaments, will the tournament committee decide that except for the tournaments that have already ended and determined an autobid winner, that at large teams will be determined based on their regular season results. It doesn't seem fair that a handful of teams will have attained an extra win or two, while other leagues cancelled their tourneys altogether.

[SM#24]

Kind of like a judge instructing the jury to ignore a key piece of evidence that was inappropriately presented. Pay no attention to that DePaul loss ! Give it no weight !

[HenryMuto]

With many of the conferences cancelling their conference tournaments, will the tournament committee decide that except for the tournaments that have already ended and determined an autobid winner, that at large teams will be determined based on their regular season results. It doesn't seem fair that a handful of teams will have attained an extra win or two, while other leagues cancelled their tourneys altogether.

I hope I am wrong but I doubt it matters now. I can't see playing an NCAA tournament.

These 4 days Thursday - Sunday with all the games that are normally played and Selection Sunday is one of the best 4 day stretches in sports along with the 1st and 2nd rounds...……...now that is all gone. I sit at home on my vacation day from work wondering why did it all go wrong at this time and not next month.

Really sucks but such is life a very unexpected turn of events even from just 48 hours ago.

I don't even think we will have a selection Sunday show now.

[JTG]

Send your thank you notes to the network and cable media for blowing this way out of proportion. At the rate they are going they won't be satisfied until they have created "The Great Depression 100th Anniversary Edition".

[smileyy]

Thank the dead and hospitalized too. If the US government ever allows testing, be prepared for a 100x uptick in US cases.

[Lamont Sanford]

I blame George W. Bush.

Whoops.