So this is a puzzler...

[Muskeagle]

I've been checking the NET rankings....to see what benefit the win over Creighton would have. Through the games on March 13th (before the game yesterday), Creighton was 54 and we were 70. AFTER the game (that involved US beating the 54th team and Creighton LOSING to the 70th team--if I remember correctly) we stayed the same and Creighton moved up two spots to 52.

Any thoughts on what's going on?

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

[waggy]

My guess is efficiency and scoring margin are more prominent factors compared to the old formula. If they would have won be 12 yesterday there would have been some movement possibly. Also there is the consideration of past X opponents.. Are any of them doing anything? No idea.

[Muskeagle]

Good points, Waggy. Could be. All I know is if there is a system where #70 beats #54 and #54 gets better, while #70 doesn't improve....well, then that system feels sort of silly.


That said, I guess it is possible that the difference between spot 70 and 69 is larger than the margins around #54. Anyway, still "feels" like a flaw in the system.

[waggy]

Looking at Pomeroy it's much the same. I think X improved one spot.

[GoMuskies]

Illinois getting throttled may have hurt X. Mizzou losing (of course, that also involved Auburn winning). I don't know.

Nebraska beating Maryland could have given Creighton some lift.

It's definitely odd. KenPom now rates us #65 and Sagarin has us #55 (#28 in Recent).

[Muskeagle]

Looking at Pomeroy it's much the same. I think X improved one spot.

Not to be confused, I didn't think we'd switch places or anything. I just figured we'd move up a couple of spots and Creighton would drop a couple. I didn't see how the losing team could move up and the winning team stay the same. Good point (Waggy and GoMuskies) on other teams losing....I guess.

[XU 87]

One would still think that in a fair system, if both teams are in the top 100, the team that win goes up and the team that loses go down. X beat a decent SJU at home and then a decent Creighton on a neutral. X's NET ranking has gone from 72 to 70. Makes you wonder a bit.

On a side note, I see SJU has now dropped to 72. I have to think they're in real trouble of getting in.

[waggy]

Well the entire season is in play, and there was a large portion of the season when they weren't good at all. This team had a lot to overcome, and they look pretty much like a tournament team now, but that other body of work doesn't go away.

[paulxu]

Even the old RPI has us at 76.

We just need to keep winning.

[XU 87]

I also wonder how Creighton can have a NET of 52 with an 18-14 record and X is also at 18-14 and is at 70. Creighton has one decent OOC win- a bubble team in Clemson.

[Xavier]

From what I can tell- winning @Marquette, and they don't have the bad losses Xavier does. The difference between 52 and 70 is really only a game or two difference.

[paulxu]

I also wonder how Creighton can have a NET of 52 with an 18-14 record and X is also at 18-14 and is at 70. Creighton has one decent OOC win- a bubble team in Clemson.

Well, they don't have any Quad 3/4 losses. We've got 2 Quad 3 losses.

[noteggs]

Another head scratcher is Minnesota beat Penn State 77-72 yesterday. 14-18 Penn State went from 49 down to 47 and Minnesota went from 56 up to 57. I get the whole season thing but how can St Johns’s go from 64 down to 72 after losing a game to 29 Marquette (with a 10 point cap).

[American X]

NET rankings have an anti-Catholic bias, during Lent even.

[Muskeagle]

Well the entire season is in play, and there was a large portion of the season when they weren't good at all. This team had a lot to overcome, and they look pretty much like a tournament team now, but that other body of work doesn't go away.

Sure the whole season is in play...but those bad losses were included yesterday....and it said we were at 70. Again, I know there are other factors, but the bad losses have been being calculated.

[Muskeagle]

Even the old RPI has us at 76.

We just need to keep winning.

Never a truer statement.

The real takeaway is we have to win the BE.

[XU 87]

Another head scratcher is Minnesota beat Penn State 77-72 yesterday. 14-18 Penn State went from 49 down to 47 and Minnesota went from 56 up to 57. I get the whole season thing but how can St Johns’s go from 64 down to 72 after losing a game to 29 Marquette (with a 10 point cap).

I suspect SJU's offensive and defensive efficiency took a hit yesterday. But I agree, losing to the #29 team, even badly, shouldn't make a team drop that much.

I realize any margin of win above 10 points isn't counted, but the score is effectively counted via the efficiency ratings. I also get it that a team that wins by 30 played better than the team that beat the same team by 5. But it still bothers me some that margin of victory apparently has a significant effect on the ratings.

[FIGHTING MUSKETEER]

FWIW, here is an attempt to "explain".

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2019-02-07/net-rankings-ncaa-tournament-what-they-mean

[Muskie]

I also wonder how Creighton can have a NET of 52 with an 18-14 record and X is also at 18-14 and is at 70. Creighton has one decent OOC win- a bubble team in Clemson.

Our bad losses are worse then Creighton's.

[UCGRAD4X]

Yeah, I get the whole Quad wins/losses, how previous opponents are doing, opponents opponents, and opponents opponents opponents :seestars: etc., but it doesn't seem like any of this should trump or even have near as much bearing as actually winning the damn game.

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

Just WIN!

[HenryMuto]

The NET is stupid. Ohio State beat Indiana yesterday and went from 55 to 55...….meanwhile Indiana dropped like 1 spot.

NET IS STUPID a team like NC State is 32 on NET with a non conf SOS of 353 the worst non conf SOS in the history of the sport (since this is the first year we have had 353 div 1 teams). How the hell are they 32 in the NET because they beat up on cupcakes in the non conf is beyond me if we were still using RPI NC State would not even have a pulse to get in their RPI would be 95 and no team has ever got in with RPI in the 80s for at large. I know everyone used to hammer the RPI and say how outdated it was but it had some merits like punishing teams who played cup cake city.

[UCGRAD4X]

The NET is stupid. Ohio State beat Indiana yesterday and went from 55 to 55...….meanwhile Indiana dropped like 1 spot.

NET IS STUPID a team like NC State is 32 on NET with a non conf SOS of 353 the worst non conf SOS in the history of the sport (since this is the first year we have had 353 div 1 teams). How the hell are they 32 in the NET because they beat up on cupcakes in the non conf is beyond me if we were still using RPI NC State would not even have a pulse to get in their RPI would be 95 and no team has ever got in with RPI in the 80s for at large. I know everyone used to hammer the RPI and say how outdated it was but it had some merits like punishing teams who played cup cake city.

Or, perhaps, South West Cupcake Community College.

[XU 87]

Even the old RPI has us at 76.

We just need to keep winning.

So NET has us higher than RPI.......

Have I mentioned how much better NET is than RPI?

[FIGHTING MUSKETEER]

One thing the NET eliminated is taking under consideration the date of the game. As a result, at this point in the season, the last 10 games have the very same weight as the first 10 games in the season. In theory, it is hard to argue against that from a season ranking system point of view. However, as I recalled it (please help here), in previous years the committee has considered and valued how a team is trending and if the members of a team available for the tournament are the same members that got the wins (i.e. depleted team due to injuries or suspensions). I am bringing this up because for the first 2-3 weeks (maybe more) it looked as if we were seldom fully healthy. It took us some time to learn to play together and now, we really look and are playing like a different team. If that is going to be taken into consideration or not, who knows. I hope so because, otherwise, I feel we are in only if we win it all. By the way, anyone knows who is representing the BE in the committee?

[stammina0721]

I also wonder how Creighton can have a NET of 52 with an 18-14 record and X is also at 18-14 and is at 70. Creighton has one decent OOC win- a bubble team in Clemson.

And we don't even have that

[dethwing]

Because the net takes into consideration scoring efficiency and scoring margin. It's not just wins a losses.

[paulxu]

FWIW, here is an attempt to "explain".

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2019-02-07/net-rankings-ncaa-tournament-what-they-mean


It is not a deciding factor.

It is not going to determine if a team is in or out of the bracket.

It is an organizational piece for the committee.

Getting the old "eye test" rational out early in the process.

[HenryMuto]

One thing the NET eliminated is taking under consideration the date of the game. As a result, at this point in the season, the last 10 games have the very same weight as the first 10 games in the season.

RPI did that as well the date of game meant nothing in the RPI

[mid major]

Two weeks ago Dayton lost a home game to Rhody. The loss seemingly did nothing to their NET ranking. Their best OOC win appears to be Butler. Their NET ranking is higher than ours. I'm not sure how much better is this system than the old one.