Our Seed if we Win Out

[xu koop scoop]

If XU can win out to 10 straight (But, St J & BE Tourney) where might they be Seeded. I say #5.

[GoMuskies]

8

[OTRMUSKIE]

5? Oh boy take off the blue glasses. No way but we def be a 7 I say. Lose in finals 9-10 and lose semi I would say 11 to 11 PIG. X is in with 3 more wins . 19-14 should be enough this year. Dayton losing tonight def helps.

[xu koop scoop]

Reason for my 5 seed. In 2010-11 UConn was an 8 or 9 seed in BE Tourney. Had to win 5BE games in 5 days, which they did. They then went from no bid at all to a #3 seed in NCAA with the BE Tourney Title. They then beat #8 seed Butler for the NCAA Title. I say #5 seed if we have to beat Nova or Marquette to win BE Tourney. #4 seed if we have to beat both. #6 seed if we avoid both Marquette & Nova. You are talking a 10 game win streak, 4 on the road, 3 on Neutral floors & only 3 at home.

[GoMuskies]

UConn was ranked going into the Big East Tournament and beat four ranked teams in that Big East Tournament. They were about a six seed to start with. Not really relevant to us. You might be thinking of their AAC championship season when they beat Kentucky with Kemba.

[GIMMFD]

Yeah I think we'd get screwed and get the good ole' 8/9 seed, and win and have to take on a 1 seed if we won out, would rather be a 10 or 7 at that point.

[GoMuskies]

Can’t really say we’d be screwed in that scenario, to be honest. Lol. We were just 11-13!

[xu koop scoop]

UConn was ranked going into the Big East Tournament and beat four ranked teams in that Big East Tournament. They were about a six seed to start with. Not really relevant to us. You might be thinking of their AAC championship season when they beat Kentucky with Kemba.

Not thinking of 2014 UConn Team. 2011 was when they had Kemba Walker. 2011 they finished 9-9 in BE & were worried if they lost 1st BE Tourney game they might get left out of Dance. I may be a little zealous in my "dream scenario" but if UConn got a #3 seed in 2011 going 9-9 in BE before winning BE Tourney, then a #5 for us is within reach. The 4 seed may be a reach

[GoMuskies]

UConn was ranked #21 at the beginning of the BE Tournament. We would be lucky to be #51. And we won’t get 4 wins over ranked opponents in NYC.

[noteggs]

Sounds like our narrative has changed over the last couple of games.

[xu koop scoop]

UConn 2011 is 1 comparison. Xu 2004 is another. In 04 we went into A10 Tourney as an 8-9 seed. We had lost to Duquesne twice. We beat St B, #1 St Joe, GW & then Dayton in A10 finals. I was at all 4 A10 Tourney games. Without the A10 Title most thought we'd be left out of Dance. We got a #7 seed in NCAA & then to Elite 8. I'm willing to bet on that 5 seed if we run the table, beating Nova or Marquette along the way

[Lloyd Braun]

I’m not THAT superstitious but this thread feels like a giant jinx and makes me queasy!

[slysyl]

Who gives a shit about U CON.

[Joel]

UConn 2011 is 1 comparison. Xu 2004 is another. In 04 we went into A10 Tourney as an 8-9 seed. We had lost to Duquesne twice. We beat St B, #1 St Joe, GW & then Dayton in A10 finals. I was at all 4 A10 Tourney games. Without the A10 Title most thought we'd be left out of Dance. We got a #7 seed in NCAA & then to Elite 8. I'm willing to bet on that 5 seed if we run the table, beating Nova or Marquette along the way

2004 Xavier played a top 40 schedule, was 19-10 heading into the A10 tournament, and won 3 tier A games in that tournament. 2011 UConn was 21-9 and 26th in the KenPom heading into the conference tournament. These are not good comparisons for this Xavier team. If Xavier gets in this year, it will be as a double-digit seed. A 9 seed is an optimistic hope; a 5 seed is delusional.

[GIMMFD]

Can’t really say we’d be screwed in that scenario, to be honest. Lol. We were just 11-13!

Hahah honestly fair point, I wouldn't mind an 11 seed, 11 over 5's happen all the time, book that for a win. *Knocks on wood, please let's win out*

[IM4X]

If Xavier gets in this year, it will be as a double-digit seed. A 9 seed is an optimistic hope; a 5 seed is delusional.

I would be quite happy if they could get in with an 11 or 12 or 13 or 14 seed. I’d prefer it to getting an 8/9 seed. Heck, if these guys can stay hungry and keep winning, it won’t really matter.

“Stay hungry my friends!”

[Xavier]

5? Oh boy take off the blue glasses. No way but we def be a 7 I say. Lose in finals 9-10 and lose semi I would say 11 to 11 PIG. X is in with 3 more wins . 19-14 should be enough this year. Dayton losing tonight def helps.

Hope you're right. 19-14 IMO best case is play in game and would need a lot to break our way.

For the thread- I'd guess a 9/10 seed.

[slysyl]

Lets take a 10 seed in Jacksonville, FL. ; need some sunshine.

[X-band '01]

Seton Hall didn't get any favors when they beat Xavier and Villanova back-to-back in 2016. I get a feeling the current Selection Commitee puts little weight in conference tournaments compared to the past. Remember when Maryland was a bubble team and played up to a 4 after winning the ACC Tournament one year?

[UCGRAD4X]

Please change the title of the thread to:

Our seed WHEN we win out

just sayin'

BTW: I'm at the "just win and get in" point right now.

Any team, anytime, anywhere.

[stammina0721]

Guys it just isn't there even with 3 more wins. Reason is the nonconference schedule and performance. A 158 nsos with no big wins isn't getting it done. Here are the scenarios I believe get X in and seed.

Win out- 10 seed
Lose BEF- 11-12 seed if lucky
Lose semis NIT
Lose quarter finals miss everything.

Of course it is just my opinion but we were literally at the bottom of a mountain. Climbing into a single digits seed just doesn't seem plausible.

[stammina0721]

Seton Hall didn't get any favors when they beat Xavier and Villanova back-to-back in 2016. I get a feeling the current Selection Commitee puts little weight in conference tournaments compared to the past. Remember when Maryland was a bubble team and played up to a 4 after winning the ACC Tournament one year?

This... Committee puts very little stock in conference tournament games. Their at large candidates will be selected and slotted before the Big East tournament is even done. They may have a contingency bracket or two but those teams will basically be selected by Thursday or early Friday

[stammina0721]

But I gotta say it is fun at least having the conversation. So go ahead with delusional thoughts of 5 seeds because we were not having that type of fun 3 weeks ago

[UCGRAD4X]

Guys it just isn't there even with 3 more wins. Reason is the nonconference schedule and performance. A 158 nsos with no big wins isn't getting it done. Here are the scenarios I believe get X in and seed.

Win out- 10 seed
Lose BEF- 11-12 seed if lucky
Lose semis NIT
Lose quarter finals miss everything.

Of course it is just my opinion but we were literally at the bottom of a mountain. Climbing into a single digits seed just doesn't seem plausible.

Would somebody please insert a clip from Dumb ad Dumber.

I seem to be too dumberer to do it.

(even a clifton doctorate only get's you so far)

[AviatorX]

Guys it just isn't there even with 3 more wins. Reason is the nonconference schedule and performance. A 158 nsos with no big wins isn't getting it done. Here are the scenarios I believe get X in and seed.

Win out- 10 seed
Lose BEF- 11-12 seed if lucky
Lose semis NIT
Lose quarter finals miss everything.

Of course it is just my opinion but we were literally at the bottom of a mountain. Climbing into a single digits seed just doesn't seem plausible.

Just not sure how people can make statements like this in a vacuum, especially in a season where 99% of us weren't tracking the bubble at all until 48 hours ago. You have no idea, let's be honest.

[xu koop scoop]

Back to XU 2004 Comp. That was an A10 TEAM at 23-10 after A10 Tourney & had 2 bad losses to Duquesne. That A10 team got a 7 seed. This team becomes 21-13 if we win BE Tourney. We beat Top 20 Nova & will need 1 or 2 more Top 20 wins (NOVA, MARQUETTE) to win title. That A10 team did beat #1 St Joes which helped get the 7 seed. All you pundits say how much better the BE is than A10. So a 7 or better seed seems very possible if we win out.

[OTRMUSKIE]

According to the calculations. If we don’t win out we arnt getting in. If we do
Winwin out and win beast we get a 12 seed. Boy I hope that’s wrong
http://www.barttorvik.com/#

[GoMuskies]

That A-10 was pretty good, though. It had the undefeated #1 team in the country. It was a 4 bid league. It wasn't the Big East, but it's not today's A-10, either.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Could be a #1 seed in the NIT at least with a home game against VD. That would be fun at least. Although they maybe hungrier seeing they eat, sleep and live NIT basketball. They really should change the name to the DIT. The record is as follows.
St Johns 30
Dayton 24
X 7

[GoMuskies]

I don't really want to see the Jimmy Carter streak on the line this year. I'd personally prefer a home NIT game against Wichita State if it came to that. Would be fun for me at least.

[xu koop scoop]

This may be a 2 bid BE if we run table, but lose BE Finals. That would give us 2 or 3 wins vs St Johns. 3 wins vs St Johns will keep them out. Marquette & Nova in BE Finals & the rest of our league can have our own NIT

[xukeith]

Reason for my 5 seed. In 2010-11 UConn was an 8 or 9 seed in BE Tourney. Had to win 5BE games in 5 days, which they did. They then went from no bid at all to a #3 seed in NCAA with the BE Tourney Title. They then beat #8 seed Butler for the NCAA Title. I say #5 seed if we have to beat Nova or Marquette to win BE Tourney. #4 seed if we have to beat both. #6 seed if we avoid both Marquette & Nova. You are talking a 10 game win streak, 4 on the road, 3 on Neutral floors & only 3 at home.

Highly doubtful.
13 losses on resume look poor.
SOS is not good.

Best NET with BE tourney and 2 more wins is in 40's.

I say a 8-9 seed if make finals or win BE tourney.

[stammina0721]

Just not sure how people can make statements like this in a vacuum, especially in a season where 99% of us weren't tracking the bubble at all until 48 hours ago. You have no idea, let's be honest.

Don't make assumptions about people. I've been a die-hard X fan my entire life but college basketball is the only sport I gamble on and absolutely destroy my bookie every year. I track a lot of teams so yes I feel I watch enough basketball to make my opinions

[stammina0721]

Just not sure how people can make statements like this in a vacuum, especially in a season where 99% of us weren't tracking the bubble at all until 48 hours ago. You have no idea, let's be honest.

But I am curious how off you feel my statement is? If Xavier under ANY scenario earned a single digits seed then I would gladly say I'm wrong.

I am wondering how people think a team that isn't even in a last 8 in scenario in a majority of brackets right now climb into single seed territory? In my opinion there just isn't enough time, but I'll gladly be wrong if that is the case

[AviatorX]

But I am curious how off you feel my statement is? If Xavier under ANY scenario earned a single digits seed then I would gladly say I'm wrong.

I am wondering how people think a team that isn't even in a last 8 in scenario in a majority of brackets right now climb into single seed territory? In my opinion there just isn't enough time, but I'll gladly be wrong if that is the case

Fair enough - we're talking past each other, sorry if I was unclear. 100% agree there's no chance in hell X is a single digit seed under any circumstance. I was more speaking generally to drawing fine lines between being in and out based on a hypothetical win/loss against a TBD quarters or semis opponent.

Keep destroying your bookie.

[slysyl]

Don't make assumptions about people. I've been a die-hard X fan my entire life but college basketball is the only sport I gamble on and absolutely destroy my bookie every year. I track a lot of teams so yes I feel I watch enough basketball to make my opinions

If you have a bookie their is no way you destroy him . You just think your good.

[gladdenguy]

13 losses on resume look poor.

Xavier had 13 losses the year when they lost to Arizona in the sweet 16.
They were a 6 seed.

[xukeith]

Xavier had 13 losses the year when they lost to Arizona in the sweet 16.
They were a 6 seed.

Yes. Then the BE was better and had 6 bids. Different circumstances

[XUBison]

A 5 seed would mean we’re a top 20 team. There‘s no scenario in which that’s happening this year. The number of high quality wins we would need just isn‘t there. I’m not sure Nova would get a 5 at this point if they won out through the BET.

Maybe we’d get as high as 8, but even that seems like a stretch. And FWIW, I’ve paid plenty of attention to the bubble because I love college b-ball, especially the BE. Given the state of affairs in the BE this year, I suspect that those who have been following it know enough about this year’s bubble to feel like they’re in the middle of a Calgon commercial. This year’s BE practically is the bubble.

[webxu]

a 5 seed? can i have whatever you are smoking? good gracious. I would be X-tremly happy just to MAKE the dance this year. Not to mention ALOT of work left to do. Id be thrilled keeping our .500 streak alive and making the tourney this year.

[bjf123]

a 5 seed? can i have whatever you are smoking? good gracious. I would be X-tremly happy just to MAKE the dance this year. Not to mention ALOT of work left to do. Id be thrilled keeping our .500 streak alive and making the tourney this year.

What he said. Unless we win the BET, or at least lose in the finals after also beating Butler and SJU, I’m not sure we’re getting in. At this point, all I care about is beating Butler to keep the .500 streak alive. Anything beyond that is icing on the cake.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kmcrawfo]

What he said. Unless we win the BET, or at least lose in the finals after also beating Butler and SJU, I’m not sure we’re getting in. At this point, all I care about is beating Butler to keep the .500 streak alive. Anything beyond that is icing on the cake.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I predict a 7 seed if we win out. We'd be 21-13, correct? I also think we need three more total wins to get an at-large bid

[scoscox]

No matter how well we're playing or how we finish, it's very unlikely we get a single digit seed with atleast 13 losses

[kmcrawfo]

No matter how well we're playing or how we finish, it's very unlikely we get a single digit seed with atleast 13 losses

In my opinion, I think people are focusing too much on the losses and not enough on the wins.

[xukeith]

X has only 2 Quad 1 wins and bad Quad 3 losses.
Our resume needs 5-6 Quad 1 wins.

[kmcrawfo]

X has only 2 Quad 1 wins and bad Quad 3 losses.
Our resume needs 5-6 Quad 1 wins.

If we win out we could be something around 7 -8 vs quad 1 teams and 8 -2 vs quad two teams. That is pretty good. A few teams are hovering right at the margin of quad 1 and quad 2 on her schedule

[stammina0721]

If you have a bookie their is no way you destroy him . You just think your good.

The bank account says different. To be honest I don't bet a lot of teams. Instead I bet a lot of over unders. Those lines have many more mistakes.

For example my big play yesterday was the Seton Hall Georgetown under. I got it at 158. No way that was coming close. It still easily won even with double OT. Those games are much easier to find than beating regular lines

[scoscox]

In my opinion, I think people are focusing too much on the losses and not enough on the wins.

Ha well in an ideal world that would happen, but unfortunately the committee isn't going to ignore our losses

[stammina0721]

Let's just take all questions out and win 3 in NYC.

[HenryMuto]

Win out I could see a 9 seed.
Win out until BE final I Could see a 10 seed
Win out until BE Semis I could see an 11 seed
Win out and lose BE 1st game I could see an 11 seed in Dayton
Win 1 of last 2 and Make BE Semis I could see 11 seed in Dayton
Win 1 of last 2 and Make BE Finals I could see 11 seed
Win 1 of last 2 and win BE tournament I could see 10 seed
Lose 1 of final 2 then lose BE 1st game out for sure

[Xville]

X has only 2 Quad 1 wins and bad Quad 3 losses.
Our resume needs 5-6 Quad 1 wins.

Have three quad 1 wins, not 2...will have 4 after tuesday

[OTRMUSKIE]

Win out I could see a 9 seed.
Win out until BE final I Could see a 10 seed
Win out until BE Semis I could see an 11 seed
Win out and lose BE 1st game I could see an 11 seed in Dayton
Win 1 of last 2 and Make BE Semis I could see 11 seed in Dayton
Win 1 of last 2 and Make BE Finals I could see 11 seed
Win 1 of last 2 and win BE tournament I could see 10 seed
Lose 1 of final 2 then lose BE 1st game out for sure

If you were on the selection committee I would agree with you. But only way X gets an at large is if they win next 3. If they lose any of those they’re out. Honestly they may need to win the next 4 amd hope other teams lose that are on the bubble.

[SemajParlor]

Providence last year is probably a solid case study here. They finished 21-14 (10-8) and lost in the BE Finals. However, they beat us twice (we were pretty good). They were a 10 seed in the NCAA.

[X-band '01]

Providence and Butler were actually supposed to be 9 seeds, but they had to be bounced down to the 10 line because of bracketing rules and guidelines. Bad luck for Xavier was that Florida State was supposed to be a 10 seed but got bumped up to the 9 line for that reason.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Providence and Butler were actually supposed to be 9 seeds, but they had to be bounced down to the 10 line because of bracketing rules and guidelines. Bad luck for Xavier was that Florida State was supposed to be a 10 seed but got bumped up to the 9 line for that reason.

Which should have been good luck for XU when you think you get to face a team who was really worse than their seed. But alas....

Thanks for sharing bc I actually did not know that.

[SemajParlor]

Providence and Butler were actually supposed to be 9 seeds, but they had to be bounced down to the 10 line because of bracketing rules and guidelines. Bad luck for Xavier was that Florida State was supposed to be a 10 seed but got bumped up to the 9 line for that reason.

Honestly completely forgot about that. I've tried my best to block out March 2018.

[XMuskieFTW]

Providence's play is huge for our metrics the last couple weeks here. Currently at 78, they're a quad 2 win and quad 3 loss. If they can finish 2-2(probably) and get to 75 or better, they'd be a quad 1 win and quad 2 loss for us. Would make the resume look much better.

[Snipe]

We just need to keep winning and the rest will sort itself out. I don't care what seed they give us, I just want to earn a seed. Beat Butler!

[Xville]

X a 10 vs Ill fitting suit man as a 7...beat them by 20.

[SemajParlor]

Louisville in latest Lunardi bracket as a 7. Just something completely nothing to do with anything, just thought I'd share.

[OTRMUSKIE]

What’s wrong with sunken eye monsters suits? Are they really poorly fitted?

[Snipe]

The committee and the NCAA grown on such matchups.......Not!

[HenryMuto]

If you were on the selection committee I would agree with you. But only way X gets an at large is if they win next 3. If they lose any of those they’re out. Honestly they may need to win the next 4 amd hope other teams lose that are on the bubble.

I am not on the committee but the good news is I scored more pts than the entire bracket matrix in 2 of the last 4 years (2015 and 2018) and have got all 68 teams right twice in 2 out of the last 6 years (2017 and 2013) so I know a little something about this (though the new NET throws in a new wrinkle).

[drudy23]

Do they ever put conference tourney winners in the play-in games? Seems like there should be some rule against that.

[SemajParlor]

Do they ever put conference tourney winners in the play-in games? Seems like there should be some rule against that.

Yeah happens every year with the 16 seeds in Dayton. Agreed on the necessary rule change.

[paulxu]

I would support the idea that a conference champion has earned the right to be automatically in the tournament, and should not have to play a "play-in" game.

Play-in games reserved for the last 8 at-large picks.

[GoMuskies]

Do they ever put conference tourney winners in the play-in games? Seems like there should be some rule against that.

There are two separate play-in regimes, obviously. The worst 4 teams (always terrible conference champs) play for the last two #16 seeds. The other two play-in games are for the last four at-large teams. So if you win your conference tournament you cannot be placed in those games.

[xubrew]

I would support the idea that a conference champion has earned the right to be automatically in the tournament, and should not have to play a "play-in" game.

Play-in games reserved for the last 8 at-large picks.

I would support that as well.

I could also support it just having four #17 seeded teams and letting it be the worst 8 teams in the tournament. It's my understanding that this was voted down because schools and conferences actually get tournament units for playing in the First Four. In other words, a team that goes from the First Four to the Round of 64 gets just as much money as a team that goes from the Round of 64 to the Round of 32. The power conferences realized that they would make more money if they got to play in the First Four, so they were against the idea of it being the worst 8 teams from crappy conferences.

[OTRMUSKIE]

What!!!!! Is that true?

[X-band '01]

From 2001 through 2010, play-in game winners weren't getting additional units. That changed in 2011 when the field expanded to 68 teams.

I think it's good for conferences like the NEC, MEAC and SWAC that rarely (if ever) win tournament games otherwise.

[GoMuskies]

What!!!!! Is that true?

If it is true, it's the most ridiculous, petty money grab yet from the big conferences.

[SemajParlor]

My opinion that no one asked for is that if you win your conference tourney you should get in the top 64 real dance. Yes, those teams are awful, but I think it’s deserved and an appropriate award for winning you conference post season. Lose to Kansas by 60, but you should get a crack at Kansas. Obviously, there are bigger fish to fry in the world of sports, but something that I feel pretty strong about.

[xubrew]

From 2001 through 2010, play-in game winners weren't getting additional units. That changed in 2011 when the field expanded to 68 teams.

I think it's good for conferences like the NEC, MEAC and SWAC that rarely (if ever) win tournament games otherwise.

I agree. I have nothing else to add.

[paulxu]

There are two separate play-in regimes, obviously. The worst 4 teams (always terrible conference champs) play for the last two #16 seeds. The other two play-in games are for the last four at-large teams. So if you win your conference tournament you cannot be placed in those games.

Are you saying that the 4 lower conference teams in the "play-in" bracket are conference champions from conferences that did not have a tournament to select their NCAA participant? (sorry for my confusion on your post)

[GoMuskies]

Are you saying that the 4 lower conference teams in the "play-in" bracket are conference champions from conferences that did not have a tournament to select their NCAA participant? (sorry for my confusion on your post)

No, they're the four worst conference tournament champs. The worst four teams in the tournament.

[paulxu]

Gotcha. You're saying the bad conference champs can't play any of the 4 at larges.

[GoMuskies]

Gotcha. You're saying the bad conference champs can't play any of the 4 at larges.

No, they're 16 seeds. The at-larges are 12 or 13 seeds.

[paulxu]

I'm still in favor of all conference champions not having to play in Dayton.

[GoMuskies]

On the other hand, it's the only chance these kids are ever going to have to win an NCAA Tournament game, so I don't mind it too much. I think Dayton does a pretty good job of cleaning out of the raw sewage for this event and making it a "real" NCAA Tournament environment.

[xu koop scoop]

I started the Win out Thread, but concentrating on just Butler.

[SkyWalker]

I'm still in favor of all conference champions not having to play in Dayton.

Paul, I'm not sure what you are saying. Are you not in favor of conference champions having to play in Dayton or not in favor of conference champions having to play play-in games anywhere?

[xu koop scoop]

Should loss to Butler kill this thread? Ps, we can still Win out vs St J & BE Tourney Title. Guess 10 seed if that happens. Probably have to beat St J & 1BE Tourney win to secure NIT. Anything to prolong season appreciated

[paulxu]

Paul, I'm not sure what you are saying. Are you not in favor of conference champions having to play in Dayton or not in favor of conference champions having to play play-in games anywhere?

I think if your are a conference champion, you should not have to be involved in a play-in game anywhere.
You should get a slot in the tournament 64 without doing that.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Right now X is playing for the right to host VD at the Cintas. If X wins next 2 they will be a 3 seed in the NIT.