Tooooo many minutes?

[BandDad]

So I have looked at the plus minus for the year for the top seven players. I calculate plus minus as the excess or shortfall of points that X scores compared to their opponents while a particular player is on the floor. The data is below:

Welage +37, Hankins +16, Jones +1, Castlin -17, Scruggs -41, Marshall -47 and Goodin -83.

I then looked at it in Big East Play so that I eliminated some of the cupcakes at the beginning of the year that could inflate individual numbers. That data is below:

Hankins +31, Welage +15, Jones - 4, Castlin -9, Scruggs - 63, Marshall -68 and Goodin -95 (missed two games). Welage dropped some as a couple of his better games were earlier in the year. Hankins has actually been a little better in Big East play based on this metric. Jones, Castlin and Goodin are all close to the same, but Scruggs and Marshall have dropped significantly. I looked at their two numbers and found this interesting stat in Big East games. Both of them are routinely playing entire games (or very close to it), so I looked at their +/- in their first 36 minutes per game and then looked at it again after they reach the threshold of 36 minutes. The split out is as follows: Scruggs is -14 for his first 36 minutes of every game and -49 in his last four minutes of every game. Marshall is -20 and -48.

This clearly begs the question. Do these two key players run out of gas at the end of the games or does X in total just not know how to close out games or a combination of both? Scruggs and Marshall are 2nd and 5th in minutes played in Big East games. I know others such as Diallo, Ponds, Paschall and Booth are up there as well, but they have more around them so that their minutes aren't as stressful.

I am definitely not a Steele basher as I think he needs time to find his way as the head coach, but it seems like stealing a little rest around TV timeouts for the fellas could help the bottom line.

[atljar]

So I have looked at the plus minus for the year for the top seven players. I calculate plus minus as the excess or shortfall of points that X scores compared to their opponents while a particular player is on the floor. The data is below:

Welage +37, Hankins +16, Jones +1, Castlin -17, Scruggs -41, Marshall -47 and Goodin -83.

I then looked at it in Big East Play so that I eliminated some of the cupcakes at the beginning of the year that could inflate individual numbers. That data is below:

Hankins +31, Welage +15, Jones - 4, Castlin -9, Scruggs - 63, Marshall -68 and Goodin -95 (missed two games). Welage dropped some as a couple of his better games were earlier in the year. Hankins has actually been a little better in Big East play based on this metric. Jones, Castlin and Goodin are all close to the same, but Scruggs and Marshall have dropped significantly. I looked at their two numbers and found this interesting stat in Big East games. Both of them are routinely playing entire games (or very close to it), so I looked at their +/- in their first 36 minutes per game and then looked at it again after they reach the threshold of 36 minutes. The split out is as follows: Scruggs is -14 for his first 36 minutes of every game and -49 in his last four minutes of every game. Marshall is -20 and -48.

This clearly begs the question. Do these two key players run out of gas at the end of the games or does X in total just not know how to close out games or a combination of both? Scruggs and Marshall are 2nd and 5th in minutes played in Big East games. I know others such as Diallo, Ponds, Paschall and Booth are up there as well, but they have more around them so that their minutes aren't as stressful.

I am definitely not a Steele basher as I think he needs time to find his way as the head coach, but it seems like stealing a little rest around TV timeouts for the fellas could help the bottom line.

I dont pay a who lot of attention to stats and box scores.... but to my eyes Naji was 100% gassed last night with about 5 or 7 min to go. Hands on hips, not moving around on both O and D.

[xu koop scoop]

Do they have a good strength & conditioning coach? Do they have one at all? Other teams might play guys 40 minutes who are better conditioned than ours. Nova has done very well with 6 or 7 man rotations. Other teams too.

[MITTENMUSKIE16]

We have one of the best Strength and Conditioning guys in the conference, and some of the best workout amenities around as well. That’s not the issue.

[MHettel]

Love this kind of stuff.

Couple Questions / comments

-Can you pull +/- on certain player combinations? Would love to see Hanking and Jones on the floor together. Would also love to see when Scruggs is NOT in the game. For that matter, probably Goodin and Naji too....

-Can you take their absolute number and denominate it by the number of minutes played? So, basically you get a +/- per minute and that allows everyone to be compared on that metric. We may find a guy that has a small "+" number but plays limited minutes. You wouldnt necessarily think much of his "+" number, but on a per minute basis it might be one of teh highest on the team, and as a result that guy maybe should see more PT....

-Gotta add some context around everyone. For intstance, all of our starters play a big chunk of their minutes against the oppostion's best players. Makes sense right. Those players are probably the best scorers and best defenders. Whereas Welage comes into the game and would be more likely to be on the floor with opposition players that arent starters. So, you cant necessarily conclude that Welage should start (for instance) and assume his performance stays where it is.

-Also, we need to think about situational playing time. In my mind, we would be more likely to give minutes to a guy like Welage when we are trying to get back into a game if we are down big. We would be more inclined to find 3's for him, and probably would play a little faster on offense and try to be a little more aggressive on defense. Kind of like a RB on a good football team that gets most of his yards in the 4th Quarter when the team decides to grind out the clock to keep the lead...

anyway, cool stuff!

[UCGRAD4X]

Clearly, for whatever reason, Xavier had trouble closing out. Whether it is hero ball, fatigue, just bad decisions or bad coaching. This is definitely a concern...to say the least. With as close the games are this year in the BE, teams that have a good end game plan and execution are at a huge advantage.

[Snipe]

Interesting that Welly is our best +/-.

I am all for starting Welly at SG for Castin. Stretch the defense! We have to get that kid going.

[scoscox]

goodin... woooooooooooooof

[Juice]

Interesting that Welly is our best +/-.

I am all for starting Welly at SG for Castin. Stretch the defense! We have to get that kid going.

Our defense isn't good but we would get murdered even worse.

[whopper]

Interesting that Welly is our best +/-.

I am all for starting Welly at SG for Castin. Stretch the defense! We have to get that kid going.
Welage was on floor for Depaul, Georgetown and Butler comeback wins so probably had a plus 35 for those games alone. Honestly I see all his weakness but he spaces the floor and does not turn the ball over(does not do much with it to be sure). Too late now but I think we could have used him a little better and I wish some teammates trusted him a bit more

[UCGRAD4X]

I don't care who it is, but we have to get SOMEBODY going consistently (besides Suggs).

Anybody!

Freshmen, transfer, walk-on, manager....I don't care.

Several somebodies would be nice.