Big East Xavier predictions

[Masterofreality]

I'm as rose colored glass guy as much as anybody, but I just can't see it with this group. I can only see 4 wins, all at home, which means we're losing to Depaul on Saturday. In fact, if Naji's back is as bad as some are saying, we may not get to 4.

This is the league's "payback Xavier" year after getting used the last few. if we would somehow go 9-9 I'd be ecstatic, but I see no scenario where that happens. In the past, I'd say we'd steal a few wins by "Outcoaching" the other side...like against Chris Mullin, but I cannot see that this year.

[BigMoeMusketeer]

Sadly, I was correct with the 8-5 non-conference prediction. Hope my luck runs out, as I see us going 7-11 in Conference Play. 15-16 is a tough first year, but I firmly believe that we will be back to normal next year in terms of expectations and results.

[paulxu]

I'm going to drink a lot of Makers and hope for some serious gelling of the parts for a good conference run.
Would be sad to miss the tourney, but I'm sure that the past 2 decades have spoiled me.

[GoMuskies]

Pain

[UCGRAD4X]

I'm as rose colored glass guy as much as anybody, but I just can't see it with this group. I can only see 4 wins, all at home, which means we're losing to Depaul on Saturday. In fact, if Naji's back is as bad as some are saying, we may not get to 4.

This is the league's "payback Xavier" year after getting used the last few. if we would somehow go 9-9 I'd be ecstatic, but I see no scenario where that happens. In the past, I'd say we'd steal a few wins by "Outcoaching" the other side...like against Chris Mullin, but I cannot see that this year.

You bring up some very good points here. The health of the team in general is a big concern. Any player can get injured, but what if a certain point guard's shoulder gets tweaked (or worse). What if Tyrique has more difficulty with his concussion. What about the previously mentioned back issue. That is not as rose-colored as you see it, perhaps, but the depth of this team is razor thin. We're walking the tightrope already and the season could go pear-shaped in a hurry. Most predictions here are decidedly not promising, even at full strength.

On the other hand, what if this team really starts to gel (with so many new, but experienced and, presumably, mature players, I don't think this is a stretch) then everyone accepts their role and the coach's game plan going forward, especially on the defensive side? The turnover issue gets fixed (can it get much worse) and a little luck fall their way...what if?

I'd like to think the Xavier Way, however that is defined, rises up and propels this team to unexpected heights?

They will fall into the middle of the pack in a down BE and finish 9-9 and rally at MSG.

Look as if my glasses may be a deeper shade of rose after all.

[JTG]

Was listening to a sports talk show in Indy discussing the Big East.
They talked about it being a down league and how the "sainted" Bulldogs should be top 4. They also said Xavier being at the bottom would not cause any tears to be shed. I think they're probably correct, and we could end up 6 and 12 in league play.
Btw, a buddy of mine who went to UD even despises the way the Indy media treats Butler as the most wholesome program in America.

[Masterofreality]

Was listening to a sports talk show in Indy discussing the Big East.
They talked about it being a down league and how the "sainted" Bulldogs should be top 4. They also said Xavier being at the bottom would not cause any tears to be shed. I think they're probably correct, and we could end up 6 and 12 in league play.
Btw, a buddy of mine who went to UD even despises the way the Indy media treats Butler as the most wholesome program in America.

The Big East is still ranked #4 in the NET rankings. While that is down from our last few years, it’s certainly not out. The league is still ranked higher than the SEC & the horrifying PAC 12. The AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC is ranked 7...not even in their stupid “Power 6” marketing campaign that only makes their own schools feel better. Their football sucks too.

[bjf123]

I really hope 9-9, but just don’t see that happening. I’m thinking 4 or 5 wins, tops.


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[OH.X.MI]

They also said Xavier being at the bottom would not cause any tears to be shed. Btw, a buddy of mine who went to UD even despises the way the Indy media treats Butler as the most wholesome program in America.

This has always been interesting to me. When I was growing up it always seemed like X tried to portray itself as the "wholesome" good guys, especially in contrast with the Huggins UC years. Then with Miller and especially the ZipEmUp era (when I was at X) the fan base seemed to adopt a bit of a villain mentality. I would much rather be feared than loved, but that's just me.

Agree with MOR a lot of teams are going to look for revenge when they play us this year. That's okay. We'll be back. It's easier to kick Butler off their high horse than it is for them to stay on it for long.

[throwbackmuskie]

I think 500 in the league is the goal for this year. Like others have said really depends on health. Reinforcements are on the way though.

[xukeith]

I think 500 in the league is the goal for this year. Like others have said really depends on health. Reinforcements are on the way though.

Next year's frosh will take a lot of time to develop so I bet 2020-21 is the year for a rock solid team.

[whopper]

My guess is 7-11. I have seen Marquette v Buffalo and Wisconsin, Creighton v Gonzaga, Butler v Indiana, Villanova v Kansas, Seton Hall v Kentucky (and they just beat Maryland), Providence v Texas, Depaul v Boston College and St Johns vs a few small Div 1.. I don't think we are as complete as any of these teams. However we will have some surprising wins (maybe 2 or 3) and we won't have any surprising losses. Good luck X and I hope you prove me wrong

[throwbackmuskie]

Next year's frosh will take a lot of time to develop so I bet 2020-21 is the year for a rock solid team.

I think Tandy and maybe Freemantle will be ready to go day one. Bishop mid year. Miles is a project.

[X-man]

If we continue to play the way we have been, with poor defense, ball handling, and outside shooting, I sadly predict we will be lucky to win more than 2-3 league games. We might pull out home wins over DePaul and the Hoyas, but the rest of the league will have their way with us. I fervently hope to be proven wrong, and that this team suddenly begins to play like a team with floor leadership and trust of the coaching staff and each other. But I have seen nothing to date to suggest that this is going to happen.

[Xuperman]

If we continue to play the way we have been, with poor defense, ball handling, and outside shooting, I sadly predict we will be lucky to win more than 2-3 league games. We might pull out home wins over DePaul and the Hoyas, but the rest of the league will have their way with us.


Obviously your not alone but IMO this mindset is over the top. Road wins will certainly be a challenge for this group but I don’t think much changes at Cintas....AND there’s no way we finish in last place! The reality is, STATISTICALLY we are in the middle of the pack in just about all categories. The glaring problem is turnovers...we have 184 of them. This has to get a lot better. Here’s how we get to 9/10 conference wins...be more committed to our zone looks and MORE WELAGE. Start him over Castlin, give him 25+ minutes and get him 10-12 shots pg. Let a shooter shoot and see what happens!!

[xu koop scoop]

My guess is 7-11. I have seen Marquette v Buffalo and Wisconsin, Creighton v Gonzaga, Butler v Indiana, Villanova v Kansas, Seton Hall v Kentucky (and they just beat Maryland), Providence v Texas, Depaul v Boston College and St Johns vs a few small Div 1.. I don't think we are as complete as any of these teams. However we will have some surprising wins (maybe 2 or 3) and we won't have any surprising losses. Good luck X and I hope you prove me wrong
I've seen Marquette lose by 23 to Indiana. Creighton lose to Ohio St, Nebraska & Oklahoma. Nova destroyed by Michigan & loss at home to Furman & loss at Penn. We can put various slants on BE foes OOC success. We haven't been under .500 in conference since 1982 nor under .500 overall since 1996. Now is the time to finally mesh. I hope to go 7-2 at home, 2-7 away. Two keys to that would be a road win at Dr Paul to build confidence & home win vs Nova.
00

[Snipe]

It is going to be difficult to run the table but I am chomping at the bit to Defend The Title!

[D-West & PO-Z]

I am going optimistic and going to say we really start to turn things around and we go 10-8 in conference.
7-2 at home and we steal 3 road wins and go 3-6 on the road.

I say this knowing full well it is very realistic we may go 5-13. I would be surprised if we won less than 5.

I like to be on the positive side and my negativity has worn off since the Mizzou game.

[Lloyd Braun]

9-9

[Xuperman]

Here’s how we get to 9/10 conference wins...be more committed to our zone looks and MORE WELAGE. Start him over Castlin, give him 25+ minutes and get him 10-12 shots pg. Let a shooter shoot and see what happens!!

IDK, but could be a good template going forward. RW is a unique player....he’s a 1 year “rental” so why not get every last shot left in him!

[sirthought]

It is going to be difficult to run the table but I am chomping at the bit to Defend The Title!

pet peeve: **champing**

[Xuperman]

The health of the team in general is a big concern. Any player can get injured, but what if a certain point guard's shoulder gets tweaked (or worse). What if Tyrique has more difficulty with his concussion. What about the previously mentioned back issue. That is not as rose-colored as you see it, perhaps, but the depth of this team is razor thin. We're walking the tightrope already and the season could go pear-shaped in a hurry. Most predictions here are decidedly not promising, even at full strength.
On the other hand, what if this team really starts to gel (with so many new, but experienced and, presumably, mature players, I don't think this is a stretch) then everyone accepts their role and the coach's game plan going forward, especially on the defensive side? The turnover issue gets fixed (can it get much worse) and a little luck fall their way...what if?

Well, there was no time wasted getting to our conference play rotation. A solid 8 man rotation is ideal but unfortunately we will have to live with 7. The Harden/Kennedy battle for PT, looks like it will produce nothing of any significance and James is not ready.

The above mentioned concerns are inevitable...there will be additional injuries in an 18 game BEast gauntlet but to what degree is key. Even if all 7 stay relatively healthy, endurance most certainly will be an additional concern come mid February. That said, we have just enough versatility among the 7 to produce a winner. Statistically we have 2 really good shooters, Statistically we have 2 elite rebounders and Statistically we have an elite facilitator, along with 2 quality complimentary guys. Very thin, yes but just enough to surprise some people.

Here’s to hoping that TS will continue to refine our zone looks and that he allows RW to empty his magazine every game.

[bjf123]

pet peeve: **champing**

Learn something new every day.

https://grammarist.com/usage/champing-chomping-at-the-bit/


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[Snipe]

pet peeve: **champing**

"Chomping at the bit" is the current use. "Champing at the bit" is out of use. Your pet peeve is fighting a loosing battle.

[X-man]

"Chomping at the bit" is the current use. "Champing at the bit" is out of use. Your pet peeve is fighting a loosing battle.

Er, that would be "losing".

[sirthought]

"Chomping at the bit" is the current use. "Champing at the bit" is out of use. Your pet peeve is fighting a loosing battle.

Using the wrong word is never a good defense.

[UCGRAD4X]

Using the wrong word is never a good defense.

I resemble that remark!

[BigMoeMusketeer]

Er, that would be "losing".

You missed the joke.

[Xuperman]

We should all feel pretty good today. Last night some much needed leadership emerged, on the floor and from a coaching standpoint as well. There may be an overall shift in the starting lineup going forward. Based on the results, should we expect to see Jones and Hankins as fixtures to start? Let me put it another way.....Castlin should come off the bench from here on out.

[IM4X]

I don’t think Steele should worry that having the two bigs on the court at the same time will cause one to foul out quicker. I think the opposite will be true.

Having them both in at the same time means neither will having to worry about having to help smaller teammate in the paint on defense which increases their likelihood to foul. Having those two bigs on the court also means better rim protection, ultimately increasing the number of total rebounds.
Key to winning games.

[Jumpin_Jamal_Forever]

We should all feel pretty good today. Last night some much needed leadership emerged, on the floor and from a coaching standpoint as well. There may be an overall shift in the starting lineup going forward. Based on the results, should we expect to see Jones and Hankins as fixtures to start? Let me put it another way.....Castlin should come off the bench from here on out.

Agree. I don't think this changes my W/L outlook on Conference Play because we still lack depth, three pt. shooting, etc. But, I love the fight they exhibited last night. Had they lost, I would have been disappointed (mostly for the team since they fought so hard to come back). But, if they play the way they did last night, every game for the entire game, I'll feel pretty good about this team regardless of conference record.

Also, posters on this board have been in agreement with your conclusion regarding Castlin for some time now. He contributed a bit more last night than he has in the last few games but his contribution just enough (in my view) to justify not giving more minutes to Hardin and Kennedy.

I'm very interested to see how Steele handles this situation when Q returns to the lineup. To me, outside of some other injury or unusual situation, Castlin comes off the bench now and comes after Hardin and Kennedy. Nothing against Castlin. I'm sure he contributes a bunch of intangibles given his maturity and experience. But, he doesn't allow us to build on anything for next year.

[MITTENMUSKIE16]

Going through the rest of the schedule, think the team ends up at 7-11. I think at one point we are 7-7, but our last four games are all tough. 2x SJU, vs Nova, and at Butler. Think best case scenario in that stretch is 1-3.

[GoMuskies]

Going through the rest of the schedule, think the team ends up at 7-11. I think at one point we are 7-7, but our last four games are all tough. 2x SJU, vs Nova, and at Butler. Think best case scenario in that stretch is 1-3.

If we're 8-9 going to Butler to finish the season, we absolutely CANNOT let those guys be the ones to break the streak.

[fellahmuskie]

Going through the rest of the schedule, think the team ends up at 7-11. I think at one point we are 7-7, but our last four games are all tough. 2x SJU, vs Nova, and at Butler. Think best case scenario in that stretch is 1-3.

At Butler and home to SJU is a fun way to end the season. If we do get to 7-9, we gotta find a way to win them. I'll be at the Butler game.

[Xuperman]

If we're 8-9 going to Butler to finish the season, we absolutely CANNOT let those guys be the ones to break the streak.

They will have a lot to do with breaking the streak if we don't take them down SUNDAY. I think the "go big" line up should work well against them. They go as Baldwin goes and the 2-3 should be effective at neutralizing his game some. Of course Sean McD will probably go off from distance. If we take a loss it will make getting to .500 in conference a daunting task.

[xukeith]

Problem with both at the same time is guarding a quick, athletic 4 or 5 that shoots 3's. I hope this is an option on matchups.
Hope X plays a lot of big interior players but Marquette, SJU and Nova will carve them up and spit out 3 pointers.

[xukeith]

I am going tomorrow. Last X game I went to was home win vs. Villanova. Lucky charm? Nope, all grace.

I project the rest of the schedule at 9 or 10 wins if X plays well. Need 10 wins and 2 wins in BE tourney for ANY NCAA hopes. OH and some top 50 NET / RPI wins.

[whopper]

I dont know where to post this but..after watching FSU almost beat Duke (if they secured the last rebound) and realizing that they lost Braina Angola(replaced with Nichols and have the exact same team as 10 months ago and as we know we should have won that game last year..we must have had a damn good team last year. This year is tough I know(may get better) but the memories stick with me. Good luck X against Butler

[xuwin]

Problem with both at the same time is guarding a quick, athletic 4 or 5 that shoots 3's. I hope this is an option on matchups.
Hope X plays a lot of big interior players but Marquette, SJU and Nova will carve them up and spit out 3 pointers.


The matchup problem goes both ways in these cases. They don't matchup inside and you don't matchup outside. The difference is that you are trading 2's for three's.

[GoMuskies]

The matchup problem goes both ways in these cases. They don't matchup inside and you don't matchup outside. The difference is that you are trading 2's for three's.

Yes, but the 2s are a higher % shot. So sometimes it will work out, and sometimes it won't. But playing those odds may well be our best shot.

[Xuperman]

Yes, but the 2s are a higher % shot. So sometimes it will work out, and sometimes it won't. But playing those odds may well be our best shot.

And don’t forget to factor in a lot more opportunities at the line when shooting 2s.....especially when driving/posting in the lane.

[Xuperman]

At Butler and home to SJU is a fun way to end the season. If we do get to 7-9, we gotta find a way to win them. I'll be at the Butler game.

This thread is an interesting re-read....lots of early gloom and doom BUT here we are riding a 4 game wave and streaking to the finish line. These last 3 are HUGE! We have split with every team in conference except MU. Got to get 1 from SJU to keep that going and win at Hinkle to sweep the dawgs.....9-9 keeps the .500 streak intact and make it so we only need to win 3 in the BET for a Championship.

Speaking of the BET, if we stumble a bit and end up 8-10, it will be a interesting to see how the tie breakers play out for seeding in the tournament. I mean it looks like several teams will end up at 8-10, so who would we own tie breakers against if the head to heads are split? Fortunately our victory over Nova may help if wins over a top 2 seed are considered because there will be some 8-10 teams that get a first round bye and some that won't.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I am going optimistic and going to say we really start to turn things around and we go 10-8 in conference.
7-2 at home and we steal 3 road wins and go 3-6 on the road.

I say this knowing full well it is very realistic we may go 5-13. I would be surprised if we won less than 5.

I like to be on the positive side and my negativity has worn off since the Mizzou game.

Gotta say sitting at 3-8 I never believed my prediction might actually come true. Cannot believe we have a chance at 10-8, keep it going Muskies!

[stammina0721]

I'd like nothing more than to be wrong. I said from the beginning that an NCAA bid or even an NIT bid was a pipe dream with a new coach who was relying on 3 transfers to make this season successful. I'd still make that prediction every time, but I am definitely glad this team is busting ass all the way to the end and maybe have me dining on a little roasted crow

[stammina0721]

St. John's just doesn't have the horses to beat X. This Butler game is massive. If we find a way to somehow beat a rival on their floor then this will be The Run part 2

[Xuperman]

We just gained a SPLIT with every team in conference except #10 Marquette. We will be playing for season SWEEPS in our next 2......yes it's HUGE!

[Masterofreality]

I'm as rose colored glass guy as much as anybody, but I just can't see it with this group. I can only see 4 wins, all at home, which means we're losing to Depaul on Saturday. In fact, if Naji's back is as bad as some are saying, we may not get to 4.

This is the league's "payback Xavier" year after getting used the last few. if we would somehow go 9-9 I'd be ecstatic, but I see no scenario where that happens. In the past, I'd say we'd steal a few wins by "Outcoaching" the other side...like against Chris Mullin, but I cannot see that this year.

I now see a scenario where we go better than that.....and I'm ecstatic. :perfect10:
(At least my Chris Mullin call was accurate)

[paulxu]

I'm going to drink a lot of Makers and hope for some serious gelling of the parts for a good conference run.
Would be sad to miss the tourney, but I'm sure that the past 2 decades have spoiled me.

For the record (and the above post is 2 months old) I've been upholding my part of the bargain...drinking a LOT of Makers.

The schedule looked very bleak as we were closing with 2 St Johns, Butler and Nova. But it set up nicely for the infamous "eye test" if we kept at it.
Got the first 2, and a nice break to prep for Butler. Then home to close it out in a rocking Cintas. !

I'm on the BUS !

[Lloyd Braun]

9-9

Never a doubt!

[Lloyd Braun]

I'm as rose colored glass guy as much as anybody, but I just can't see it with this group. I can only see 4 wins, all at home, which means we're losing to Depaul on Saturday. In fact, if Naji's back is as bad as some are saying, we may not get to 4.

This is the league's "payback Xavier" year after getting used the last few. if we would somehow go 9-9 I'd be ecstatic, but I see no scenario where that happens. In the past, I'd say we'd steal a few wins by "Outcoaching" the other side...like against Chris Mullin, but I cannot see that this year.

Ecstatic today I’m sure....

Wow re-reading all the early posts is kind of entertaining

[UCGRAD4X]

I assume many on this board are glad to be 'wrong' in some prognostication (which, by the way, did not engender much opposition at the time).

[bjf123]

I really hope 9-9, but just don’t see that happening. I’m thinking 4 or 5 wins, tops.


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Well, I’m certainly glad I didn’t know what I was talking about!


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[Masterofreality]

This is the league's "payback Xavier" year after getting used the last few. if we would somehow go 9-9 I'd be ecstatic, but I see no scenario where that happens. In the past, I'd say we'd steal a few wins by "Outcoaching" the other side...like against Chris Mullin, but I cannot see that this year.

I'm ecstatic!!
What a job by this team and Coaching staff. Never been happier to be so wrong.
But Travis did out coach Chris Mullin...twice! :-)

[throwbackmuskie]

I think 500 in the league is the goal for this year. Like others have said really depends on health. Reinforcements are on the way though.

Not bad

[noteggs]

Was this part of the predictions?

https://goxavier.com/news/2019/3/12/mens-basketball-travis-steele-named-as-a-finalist-for-national-coaching-award.aspx

[UCGRAD4X]

Was this part of the predictions?

https://goxavier.com/news/2019/3/12/mens-basketball-travis-steele-named-as-a-finalist-for-national-coaching-award.aspx

Heard that on the way home. Incredible.

I'm not sure even the most ardent Steeleophile would have predicted this.

I know the support for Travis has been all over the map, and many have insisted he WILL BE a great coach.

But, wow, just wow.

Was this based mostly on their projected finish? Because of what they lost? Gotta be more than that. It's not like this was a great season for his team. The stretch run?

Gotta say I was a bit surprised.

[GoMuskies]

Perhaps it's a parody award since Joe B. Hall was so shitty.

[usfldan]

It is for coaches in their first season (I still don't know what that has to do with Joe B. Hall):



Xavier University head coach Travis Steele has been named as a finalist for the Joe B. Hall National Coach of the Year Award, which is given annually to the nation's top first-year head coach in Division I.


The nominees:

2019 JOE B. HALL AWARD FINALISTS
Griff Aldrich, Longwood
Jeremy Ballard, FIU
David Cox, Rhode Island
Darian DeVries, Drake
Penny Hardaway, Memphis
Tavaras Hardy, Loyola
Justin Hutson, Fresno State
Dusty May, FAU
Chris Ogden, UT Arlington
Richie Riley, South Alabama
Sam Scholl, San Diego
Travis Steele, Xavier

[UCGRAD4X]

It is for coaches in their first season (I still don't know what that has to do with Joe B. Hall):

Well that certainly makes more sense...but still.

[mid major]

Perhaps it's a parody award since Joe B. Hall was so shitty.

He may have been shitty but he won an NCAA title.

[IM4X]

It is for coaches in their first season (I still don't know what that has to do with Joe B. Hall):



The nominees:

2019 JOE B. HALL AWARD FINALISTS
Griff Aldrich, Longwood
Jeremy Ballard, FIU
David Cox, Rhode Island
Darian DeVries, Drake
Penny Hardaway, Memphis
Tavaras Hardy, Loyola
Justin Hutson, Fresno State
Dusty May, FAU
Chris Ogden, UT Arlington
Richie Riley, South Alabama
Sam Scholl, San Diego
Travis Steele, Xavier

So is it for coaches in their first year at a school or first time head coaches?

If it is the former and the list is accurate, then it’ll make me smile... not just becasue Steele was included but because a certain first year coach just a little further south of Cincy was not.

[Xuperman]

Looks like an award for first time DIVISION 1 Head Coaches. I would be shocked if it wasn't given to Hardaway. He's kinda the flavor off the month and he was able to get the #1 player to commit for next year.

[GoMuskies]

He may have been shitty but he won an NCAA title.

He's very similar to Kevin Ollie in that respect.