One and Done Players....how valuable are they really?

[XUGRAD80]

The NBA collective bargaining agreement of 2006 is considered the beginning of the modern era of 'One and Done" Players. So it stands to reason that when evaluating just how successful teams are that have these players, in regards to reaching the final 4 and/or winning a national championship, we should start there. here's what the statistics show....

from the period of 2006 to 2017

there have been 112 players selected in the NBA draft that were freshman.....true One and Done players

there have been 48 total squads that have played in the final 4 during this period

only 11 of these squads had at least 1 freshman one and done player

but 37 of these squads did NOT have even 1 freshman one and done player

of the 12 national champions crowned from 2006-2017 only 2 had a one and done player...UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015

by the years the teams with NO one and done players that were drafted into the NBA, that made it to the final 4....

2006.....Florida, UCLA, George Mason
2007.....Florida, UCLA, Georgetown
2008.....Kansas, North Carolina
2009.....North Carolina, Michigan State, UConn, Villanova (4)
2010.....Duke, Butler, Michigan State, WVU (4)
2011.....UConn, Butler, VCU
2012.....Kansas, Ohio State, U of Louisville
2013.....U of Louisville, Michigan, 'Cuse, Wichita State (4)
2014.....UConn, Florida, Wisconsin
2015.....Wisconsin, Michigan State
2016.....Villanova, North Carolina, Oklahoma
2017.....North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina
2018.....? (possibly all 4 teams, don't know yet)

Does this mean that One and Done players have no value? Of course not. 75% of the time there is at least 1 school in the final 4 with at least one and done. Having better players makes winning easier, no doubt.

Does it mean that one and done players are NECCESSARY to reach a final 4 or to win a National Championship? I think that the answer to this, based on the actual statistical facts, is NO. 37 out of 48 squads had no one and done players.....77%

Does having a one and done guarantee either a final 4 appearance or a national championship? Absolutely not. If you look at the list of players that were one and done and then drafted into the NBA, you will see dozens and dozens of players that did not make a final 4 appearance. Far more one and done players never made a final 4 appearance than those that did. it's not even close.

Easier...yes

Necessary....no.

Guaranteed......absolutely not.

[Lloyd Braun]

Now do the same for 5* recruits in general. TIA

[Juice]

The NBA collective bargaining agreement of 2006 is considered the beginning of the modern era of 'One and Done" Players. So it stands to reason that when evaluating just how successful teams are that have these players, in regards to reaching the final 4 and/or winning a national championship, we should start there. here's what the statistics show....

from the period of 2006 to 2017

there have been 112 players selected in the NBA draft that were freshman.....true One and Done players

there have been 48 total squads that have played in the final 4 during this period

only 11 of these squads had at least 1 freshman one and done player

but 37 of these squads did NOT have even 1 freshman one and done player

of the 12 national champions crowned from 2006-2017 only 2 had a one and done player...UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015

by the years the teams with NO one and done players that were drafted into the NBA, that made it to the final 4....

2006.....Florida, UCLA, George Mason
2007.....Florida, UCLA, Georgetown
2008.....Kansas, North Carolina
2009.....North Carolina, Michigan State, UConn, Villanova (4)
2010.....Duke, Butler, Michigan State, WVU (4)
2011.....UConn, Butler, VCU
2012.....Kansas, Ohio State, U of Louisville
2013.....U of Louisville, Michigan, 'Cuse, Wichita State (4)
2014.....UConn, Florida, Wisconsin
2015.....Wisconsin, Michigan State
2016.....Villanova, North Carolina, Oklahoma
2017.....North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina
2018.....? (possibly all 4 teams, don't know yet)

Does this mean that One and Done players have no value? Of course not. 75% of the time there is at least 1 school in the final 4 with at least one and done. Having better players makes winning easier, no doubt.

Does it mean that one and done players are NECCESSARY to reach a final 4 or to win a National Championship? I think that the answer to this, based on the actual statistical facts, is NO. 37 out of 48 squads had no one and done players.....77%

Does having a one and done guarantee either a final 4 appearance or a national championship? Absolutely not. If you look at the list of players that were one and done and then drafted into the NBA, you will see dozens and dozens of players that did not make a final 4 appearance. Far more one and done players never made a final 4 appearance than those that did. it's not even close.

Easier...yes

Necessary....no.

Guaranteed......absolutely not.

You sure got mad after everyone shot you down in the other thread.
You're moving the goal posts here. You were arguing before about XU's administration telling the coaches not to recruit one and dones or whatever your point was about education. I think everyone would acknowledge that you don't need one and dones to be an elite team because we watch Villanova do it consistently very closely each year. But just because it doesn't guarantee you a final 4 it does not mean you stop recruiting them or taking them on your team.

[XUGRAD80]

You sure got mad after everyone shot you down in the other thread.
You're moving the goal posts here. You were arguing before about XU's administration telling the coaches not to recruit one and dones or whatever your point was about education. I think everyone would acknowledge that you don't need one and dones to be an elite team because we watch Villanova do it consistently very closely each year. But just because it doesn't guarantee you a final 4 it does not mean you stop recruiting them or taking them on your team.

No..I don’t get mad. I don’t get angry. I don’t get upset. This is whole Internet forum thing is like cotton candy....lots of calories but no nutritional value. I just thought it would be interesting to see what the actual numbers said, and not just what posters think they know. I thought others might find it interesting too. I don’t give a rats a$$ about reputation points or if anyone agrees with me or not. People can disagree with me, they can even call me names and make comments to me in private messages. So what. You think I’m going to let those things bother me? No way. Mind over matter. It don’t matter, so I don’t mind. I didn’t move any goalposts. I started a NEW discussion. A NEW game. You have your opinion on IF recruiting one and dones is something the Xavier administration will support, I have mine. Leave it at that. Leave it in the other thread. THIS thread is about the true value of those players, not about if Xavier will recruit them or not, or should or shouldn’t. Some have made the statement that it is NECESSARY to recruit them, that Xavier NEEDS them in order to reach a final 4 and/or win a NC. But what do the numbers say?

[XUGRAD80]

Now do the same for 5* recruits in general. TIA


Be my guest...:)

[Juice]

No..I don’t get mad. I don’t get angry. I don’t get upset. This is whole Internet forum thing is like cotton candy....lots of calories but no nutritional value. I just thought it would be interesting to see what the actual numbers said, and not just what posters think they know. I thought others might find it interesting too. I don’t give a rats a$$ about reputation points or if anyone agrees with me or not. People can disagree with me, they can even call me names and make comments to me in private messages. So what. You think I’m going to let those things bother me? No way. Mind over matter. It don’t matter, so I don’t mind. I didn’t move any goalposts. I started a NEW discussion. A NEW game. You have your opinion on IF recruiting one and dones is something the Xavier administration will support, I have mine. Leave it at that. Leave it in the other thread. THIS thread is about the true value of those players, not about if Xavier will recruit them or not, or should or shouldn’t. Some have made the statement that it is NECESSARY to recruit them, that Xavier NEEDS them in order to reach a final 4 and/or win a NC. But what do the numbers say?

The last three coaches we've had have left to go to schools to recruit one and dones. One coach lost in the NCAA championship. Another has 3 elite 8s in 9 seasons, which is equal to the amount of elite 8s Xavier has in its entire existence. And the other hasn't coached a game.

[D-West & PO-Z]

The NBA collective bargaining agreement of 2006 is considered the beginning of the modern era of 'One and Done" Players. So it stands to reason that when evaluating just how successful teams are that have these players, in regards to reaching the final 4 and/or winning a national championship, we should start there. here's what the statistics show....

from the period of 2006 to 2017

there have been 112 players selected in the NBA draft that were freshman.....true One and Done players

there have been 48 total squads that have played in the final 4 during this period

only 11 of these squads had at least 1 freshman one and done player

but 37 of these squads did NOT have even 1 freshman one and done player

of the 12 national champions crowned from 2006-2017 only 2 had a one and done player...UK in 2012 and Duke in 2015

by the years the teams with NO one and done players that were drafted into the NBA, that made it to the final 4....

2006.....Florida, UCLA, George Mason
2007.....Florida, UCLA, Georgetown
2008.....Kansas, North Carolina
2009.....North Carolina, Michigan State, UConn, Villanova (4)
2010.....Duke, Butler, Michigan State, WVU (4)
2011.....UConn, Butler, VCU
2012.....Kansas, Ohio State, U of Louisville
2013.....U of Louisville, Michigan, 'Cuse, Wichita State (4)
2014.....UConn, Florida, Wisconsin
2015.....Wisconsin, Michigan State
2016.....Villanova, North Carolina, Oklahoma
2017.....North Carolina, Oregon, South Carolina
2018.....? (possibly all 4 teams, don't know yet)

Does this mean that One and Done players have no value? Of course not. 75% of the time there is at least 1 school in the final 4 with at least one and done. Having better players makes winning easier, no doubt.

Does it mean that one and done players are NECCESSARY to reach a final 4 or to win a National Championship? I think that the answer to this, based on the actual statistical facts, is NO. 37 out of 48 squads had no one and done players.....77%

Does having a one and done guarantee either a final 4 appearance or a national championship? Absolutely not. If you look at the list of players that were one and done and then drafted into the NBA, you will see dozens and dozens of players that did not make a final 4 appearance. Far more one and done players never made a final 4 appearance than those that did. it's not even close.

Easier...yes

Necessary....no.

Guaranteed......absolutely not.

I'm not entirely sure that your 112 freshman number doesnt include RS freshman as well. Do you know if it does?

Either way that doesnt surprise me. If 112 is correct over that time frame then that is about 9 one and done players a year. We know UK usually has multiple so some of those 9 a year are on the same team. So lets say 7 teams every year have a one and done player. Some of those teams each year are not typical big time basketball schools (Simmons at LSU, Fultz at UW). But even including them if you say there are 7 teams and there are 40 teams each year who have legit aspirations or abilities to make a final 4 run that comes out to 17.5% of teams who have a legit shot to make a run have a one and done player.

So more teams with one and dones than expected makes the final 4.

They definitely arent necessary to make the final 4 because honestly there really arent that many of them each year.

As someone else mentioned this would be more interesting to look at 5 star players on final 4 teams.

[XUGRAD80]

The list just says freshman, it does not differentiate between RS or not. The school with the most is Kentucky with 21 out of the 112. Kentucky (4X) did not make the F4 during any of those years without at least 1. Duke (2X) is next with 10 players on the list, but Duke won the NC in 2010 WITHOUT a one and done.

I think that it is a pretty safe bet to say that there are a lot of 5 star players on F4 teams. But I also think that the discussion here is not about how having 5 star players will make reaching the F4 more likely, it’s about the NEED for one and done players. The statistics would seem to say that you don’t NEED one and done players in order to make a final 4 or a NC.

One more thing.....these are only players that were one and done AND were drafted by the NBA. There are always players that go one and done and DONT get drafted. However, I think that when most people say you need one and dones in order to get to a F4/NC they are talking about kids that go directly for college to the NBA after 1 year. This list is going to have almost everyone of those kids. The exception will be the kid that leaves school, hires and agent, and makes an NBA team as an undrafted player right away....very very rare.

[Xavier]

To start a new thread, look up the stats (informative, at least) then go on a rant about how you don’t care about opinions about you on a message board is....interesting.

For Xavier, any chance they get they should get a 1 and done player.

[scoscox]

The percentage of teams with one and dones making the final four seems to be higher than the teams without one making it by a pretty significant margin.

[Juice]

The list just says freshman, it does not differentiate between RS or not. The school with the most is Kentucky with 21 out of the 112. Kentucky (4X) did not make the F4 during any of those years without at least 1. Duke (2X) is next with 10 players on the list, but Duke won the NC in 2010 WITHOUT a one and done.

I think that it is a pretty safe bet to say that there are a lot of 5 star players on F4 teams. But I also think that the discussion here is not about how having 5 star players will make reaching the F4 more likely, it’s about the NEED for one and done players. The statistics would seem to say that you don’t NEED one and done players in order to make a final 4 or a NC.

One more thing.....these are only players that were one and done AND were drafted by the NBA. There are always players that go one and done and DONT get drafted. However, I think that when most people say you need one and dones in order to get to a F4/NC they are talking about kids that go directly for college to the NBA after 1 year. This list is going to have almost everyone of those kids. The exception will be the kid that leaves school, hires and agent, and makes an NBA team as an undrafted player right away....very very rare.

And Duke won a national championship in 2015 with 3 one and dones.

[XUGRAD80]

The percentage of teams with one and dones making the final four seems to be higher than the teams without one making it by a pretty significant margin.

Only 11 of the 48 teams that made a final 4 from 2006-2017 had a one and done, roughly 25%. In addition, there were many teams with one and done players that never made any final 4 during that period.

In any given year, there are probably 20-30 teams that have a realistic chance of reaching a final 4. Over a 12 year period that is somewhere between 240-360 possible squads that could have made a final 4. But only 48 of those possibilities made it, and out of those 48, only 11 had a one and done player.

MOST teams that make a Final 4 do NOT have a one and done player....by a pretty significant margin.

[XUGRAD80]

To start a new thread, look up the stats (informative, at least) then go on a rant about how you don’t care about opinions about you on a message board is....interesting.

For Xavier, any chance they get they should get a 1 and done player.

my response was to the person that said I "got mad'. I'm not "mad" at anyone. But I was curious, so I looked some information up. I posted it up because I thought others might also find it interesting. If it contradicts some opinions held by others here, so be it. Before I looked this information up, I would have also said that teams with one and done players are dominating the final 4. I would have said that having those players would significantly have raised the possibility of a team reaching the final 4 and winning a NC. Based on the FACTS I've found, I don't find that to be true.

[XUGRAD80]

And Duke won a national championship in 2015 with 3 one and dones.

1 of only 2 times in the period that a team with a one and done has won it. No one has ever said that you CAN'T win a NC with a one and done player (or 3). But I think its safe to say that having a one and done player guarantees nothing....not even a Final 4.

[BMoreX]

I want Xavier to recruit the most talented players to add to their roster.
One and done players are the most talented players out there.
I want Xavier to recruit one and done players (if such an opportunity arises).

[XUGRAD80]

Another interesting fact......there have been 8 additional one and done players that left after their freshman year and were NOT even drafted. Only one of them, a player from Kansas, ever even made an NBA roster (played 36 minutes total for Portland), and none of them ever played on a team that went to the final 4.

So the final tally....out of the 112 players drafted, and the 8 not drafted....only 22 of those players made it to a final 4 during the one year they played college basketball. An average of less than 2 per year.

In 2011 UK had 4
In 2012 UK had 3
In 2015 Duke and UK had 3 each

Those 4 squads alone make up 13 of the 22 players over 12 years that made it to a final 4

[Lloyd Braun]

Only 11 of the 48 teams that made a final 4 from 2006-2017 had a one and done, roughly 25%. In addition, there were many teams with one and done players that never made any final 4 during that period.

In any given year, there are probably 20-30 teams that have a realistic chance of reaching a final 4. Over a 12 year period that is somewhere between 240-360 possible squads that could have made a final 4. But only 48 of those possibilities made it, and out of those 48, only 11 had a one and done player.

MOST teams that make a Final 4 do NOT have a one and done player....by a pretty significant margin.

So how many “one and done” players were there per year from 06-17?

25% seems high relative to the number of actual players that leave after a year. What percentage of teams have players of that caliber? Far far less than 25%. Top talent/5* players win more games. If they are 1 and done so be it.

Edit: I see you answered my question a post earlier.... which seems to help the 1 and done argument actually. There aren’t many one and dones and 25% of teams at FF have one...

[XUGRAD80]

go back to my original statement.....I did say that having a one and done may make it EASIER to reach a final 4. Having 3-4 probably makes it even easier.

Would any coach that wants to win want the best players they can get? Of course they would. But those saying that you CAN’T reach a final 4 without one, that you NEED one, or that one is NECCESSARY, are wrong. The facts bare this out.

75% of the teams reaching a final 4 did NOT have even 1. 10 out of 12 National Champions did not have even 1.

Do you want them? Sure you do! But do you NEED them? Statistics say no.

What you need are good to great players that play well together as a team on both sides of the court.

[Juice]

go back to my original statement.....I did say that having a one and done may make it EASIER to reach a final 4. Having 3-4 probably makes it even easier.

Would any coach that wants to win want the best players they can get? Of course they would. But those saying that you CAN’T reach a final 4 without one, that you NEED one, or that one is NECCESSARY, are wrong. The facts bare this out.

75% of the teams reaching a final 4 did NOT have even 1. 10 out of 12 National Champions did not have even 1.

Do you want them? Sure you do! But do you NEED them? Statistics say no.

What you need are good to great players that play well together as a team on both sides of the court.

Straw man argument. No one is arguing this. Villanova has proven that you don't need them twice in three years. Everyone is simply saying that X should recruit one and dones. That's it. Your argument is against shit no one is actually saying.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/044/247/297.png

[D-West & PO-Z]

So how many “one and done” players were there per year from 06-17?

25% seems high relative to the number of actual players that leave after a year. What percentage of teams have players of that caliber? Far far less than 25%. Top talent/5* players win more games. If they are 1 and done so be it.

Edit: I see you answered my question a post earlier.... which seems to help the 1 and done argument actually. There aren’t many one and dones and 25% of teams at FF have one...

Yeah exactly, this is what I was trying to get to earlier. 25% is disproportionately high to the number of teams that actually have a one and done player.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Straw man argument. No one is arguing this. Villanova has proven that you don't need them twice in three years. Everyone is simply saying that X should recruit one and dones. That's it. Your argument is against shit no one is actually saying.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/001/044/247/297.png

Ha, yeah, I'm not sure I saw anyone say you need to have one to make it to a final four.

[Lloyd Braun]

So in summary, there have been 120 one and done players over the last 12 seasons, and approximately 50,000 roster spots (underestimate) in college basketball over the same amount of time. So 0.2% of roster spots were filled with one and dones, yet 25% of FF teams had one on their roster?

[sirthought]

Even if you don't need them for a final four or a championship, players of that calibre do help you win a lot more games. They also drive your other players to train and think about their approach in new ways. They shine attention to your program for more great players to consider what's happening there in the future.

Every fan wants their team to reach the final four and championship. Coaches and their bosses, however, ultimately want to win a lot more games, because that drives ticket and merch sales, and provides that "front porch" effect. Yes, to say they don't want final fours and championships is untrue, but really they care more about developing great talent, winning most of their games, and filling seats. Final fours and championships are just "2%" of that whole picture, which frankly is amazing and overhyped at the same time.

[XUGRAD80]

So in summary, there have been 120 one and done players over the last 12 seasons, and approximately 50,000 roster spots (underestimate) in college basketball over the same amount of time. So 0.2% of roster spots were filled with one and dones, yet 25% of FF teams had one on their roster?

It can also be said that 75% of FF teams didn’t need one. Or that there were more teams with one that didn’t make the final 4, than there were teams with one that did.

And it can also be said that of the 48 teams that DID make a final 4 there were 624 roster spots. Of those 624 roster spot there were 22 taken up by one and done players...about 3% of the roster spots.

What’s your point?

[D-West & PO-Z]

It can also be said that 75% of FF teams didn’t need one. Or that there were more teams with one that didn’t make the final 4, than there were teams with one that did.

And it can also be said that of the 48 teams that DID make a final 4 there were 624 roster spots. Of those 624 roster spot there were 22 taken up by one and done players...about 3% of the roster spots.

What’s your point?

His point is that you are trying to act like 25% of final four teams having a one and done player is low when in fact it is disproportionately high.

[xukeith]

It can also be said that 75% of FF teams didn’t need one. Or that there were more teams with one that didn’t make the final 4, than there were teams with one that did.

And it can also be said that of the 48 teams that DID make a final 4 there were 624 roster spots. Of those 624 roster spot there were 22 taken up by one and done players...about 3% of the roster spots.

What’s your point?

I guess Duke, Kentucky, UNC, Kansas and UCLA should stop looking for top one and done players and let them go to mid major schools.

[XUGRAD80]

His point is that you are trying to act like 25% of final four teams having a one and done player is low when in fact it is disproportionately high.

If I gave that impression that I feel that they are not important to the success of a team, then I apologize. That was not my intention. My contention is that they are valuable, but that it’s certainly not the way that the majority of teams that have made it there have used.

[XUGRAD80]

I guess Duke, Kentucky, UNC, Kansas and UCLA should stop looking for top one and done players and let them go to mid major schools.

They can do whatever they want.....it’s up to them. But do you still say that it is “neccessary” to have one and done players in order to reach a final 4 and/or win a NC?

[scoscox]

Only 11 of the 48 teams that made a final 4 from 2006-2017 had a one and done, roughly 25%. In addition, there were many teams with one and done players that never made any final 4 during that period.

In any given year, there are probably 20-30 teams that have a realistic chance of reaching a final 4. Over a 12 year period that is somewhere between 240-360 possible squads that could have made a final 4. But only 48 of those possibilities made it, and out of those 48, only 11 had a one and done player.

MOST teams that make a Final 4 do NOT have a one and done player....by a pretty significant margin.

I said percentage, not number of teams.

People saying Villanova does it seem to be forgetting they had Omari spellman this year.

[Juice]

They can do whatever they want.....it’s up to them. But do you still say that it is “neccessary” to have one and done players in order to reach a final 4 and/or win a NC?

NO ONE IS SAYING THIS. WE LITERALLY SAW A TEAM WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP WITHOUT ONE A FEW WEEKS AGO. JESUS EFFING CHRIST.
https://media.giphy.com/media/oaZk0WNSO7fXi/giphy.gif

[XUGRAD80]

NO ONE IS SAYING THIS. WE LITERALLY SAW A TEAM WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP WITHOUT ONE A FEW WEEKS AGO. JESUS EFFING CHRIST.
https://media.giphy.com/media/oaZk0WNSO7fXi/giphy.gif

Actually...the person I just asked about has said it on more than one occasion, not in this thread, and others have agreed with him. Sorry that you are so offended that you feel the need to SHOUT. But I ain’t deef. :)

[Muskeagle]

NO ONE IS SAYING THIS. WE LITERALLY SAW A TEAM WIN THE CHAMPIONSHIP WITHOUT ONE A FEW WEEKS AGO. JESUS EFFING CHRIST.
https://media.giphy.com/media/oaZk0WNSO7fXi/giphy.gif

Damn! That horse be dead!

[xu82]

Damn! That horse be dead!

If I knew how to add the Monty Python bit, I would.

“It’s just a flesh wound....”

[bjf123]

If I knew how to add the Monty Python bit, I would.

“It’s just a flesh wound....”

Alright then, we’ll call it a draw.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[muskiefan82]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAW6D21ICdg

Here ya' go. I hope.

[bjf123]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AAW6D21ICdg

Here ya' go. I hope.

One of the best movies of all time!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Smooth]

No..I don’t get mad. I don’t get angry. I don’t get upset. This is whole Internet forum thing is like cotton candy....lots of calories but no nutritional value. I just thought it would be interesting to see what the actual numbers said, and not just what posters think they know. I thought others might find it interesting too. I don’t give a rats a$$ about reputation points or if anyone agrees with me or not. People can disagree with me, they can even call me names and make comments to me in private messages. So what. You think I’m going to let those things bother me? No way. Mind over matter. It don’t matter, so I don’t mind. I didn’t move any goalposts. I started a NEW discussion. A NEW game. You have your opinion on IF recruiting one and dones is something the Xavier administration will support, I have mine. Leave it at that. Leave it in the other thread. THIS thread is about the true value of those players, not about if Xavier will recruit them or not, or should or shouldn’t. Some have made the statement that it is NECESSARY to recruit them, that Xavier NEEDS them in order to reach a final 4 and/or win a NC. But what do the numbers say?

A 2.1 oz serving of cotton candy has 220 calories. I googled calories burned beating a dead horse. Don't do that. All the results were for calories burned masturbating. I was able to determine that a 150 pound person will burn 238 calories grooming a horse for an hour. I weighed 150 pounds my freshman year and gained a few pounds a year after that. In other words, as a 150 pounder I was a one-and-done.

[Muskeagle]

A 2.1 oz serving of cotton candy has 220 calories. I googled calories burned beating a dead horse. Don't do that. All the results were for calories burned masturbating. I was able to determine that a 150 pound person will burn 238 calories grooming a horse for an hour. I weighed 150 pounds my freshman year and gained a few pounds a year after that. In other words, as a 150 pounder I was a one-and-done.

"grooming a horse"....is that what the kids are calling it these days? :)