Past final 4 defensive rankings

[OTRMUSKIE]

Okay so I went back and looked at kenpoms defensive rankings since 2002. Here is the final 4 teams, their defensive ranking and rather then won or were the runner up.


2002
Maryland 7 champs
Indiana 5 Runner up
Kansas 6
Oklahoma 4

2003
Kansas 3 runner up
Syracuse 14 champs
Marquette 109
Texas 58

2004
Duke 3
Oklahoma st 11
Georgia tech 4. Runnerups
Uconn 6. Champs

2005
Unc. 5. Champs
Illinois 4 runner up
Louisville 20
Mich st 28

2006
Florida 7 champs
UCLA 4 runnerups
LSU 3
George Mason 13

2007
Florida 7 champs
Ohio st 11 runner ups
Georgetown 21
UCLA 2

2008
Kansas 1 champs
Memphis 2 runner up
Unc 14
UCLA 5

2009
Mich st 9 runner up
Villanova 10
Unc 18 champs
Uconn 3

2010
Duke 5 champs
Butler 7 runner ups
West Virginia 21
Michigan st 27

2011
Uconn 15 champs
Butler 46 runner up
Vcu 78
Kentucky 16

2012
Kentucky 7 champs
Louisville 1
Ohio st 4
Kansas 3 runner up

2013
Shockers 20
Louisville 1 champs
Syracuse 6
Michigan 37 runnerups

2014
Florida 3
Uconn 10 champs
Kentucky 32 runnerups
Wisconsin 35

2015
Kentucky 1
Duke 11 champs
Wisconsin 35 runnerups
Mich st 27

2016
Villanova 5 champs
Unc 21 runnerups
Oklahoma 17
Syracuse 18

2017
Gonzaga 1 runner-up
Unc 11 champs
Oregon 17
South Carolina 3

[OTRMUSKIE]

My calculations have to be off but maybe they arnt. The avg championship game defensive record was 22.5 and the avg final 4 60.25. Is that right? I think other then a few exceptions defensive teams are the ones who make the final
4.

[X-band '01]

Just one outlier in that bunch - 2003 Marquette.

[OTRMUSKIE]

VCU was a 78

[Xavier]

I completely understand the defense needs to get better thought. I think come tournament time we will bring out the 1-3-1 a little more. It is hard to prepare for that when you don't see it and it worked well during last years run (from what I remember).

By now, most Big East teams have seen it enough to at least understand how to play against it which is why I think we haven't gone to it much. It has been much more effective in the tournament and we will see it more, IMO.

I also have confidence in Marshal/Scruggs man defense. Together, they can do a pretty solid job on opponents better wing/guard play. Again, stats could say otherwise and I could be wrong but just how I feel when watching. I am more worried about the defense when playing a team that passes well and uses everyone over a dominant player. The Big East has a few teams who just spread the ball well and is tough to defend.

[xavierj]

I am sure the offensive rating was just as high if not higher.

[OTRMUSKIE]

You can have an average offense and still make the final 4. But typically only teams in the top 40 of defense make the final four.

[xavierj]

You can have an average offense and still make the final 4. But typically only teams in the top 40 of defense make the final four.

I don’t think the numbers really back that up. The offensive numbers look really high for the most part as well. In 2003 Marquette had a triple digit defense and a #2 offense. At least for the overall winner they typically also have a very strong offense.

[MuskieXU]

Youre looking at data from after the tournament. If you look at where teams are before the tournament, most F4 teams are not elite defensively. In general though, I dont put a lot of stock into all these Kenpom "check boxes" to make a run in the tournament. It all boils down to finding fancy ways to say better teams have a better chance of advancing in March. Well Xavier is really good, and they have intangibles a lot of teams dont. Senior leadership, tournament experience, and having the best player on the floor in almost every game they play. If their defense was better they would have a better chance of making a F4, but even factoring in defense, I still think Xavier is one of the 8 most likely teams to make the F4. Maybe poor defense loses them a game in the tournament. But I dont think its any more or less likely than the flaws of any other team in America.

[XUFan09]

I don’t think the numbers really back that up. The offensive numbers look really high for the most part as well. In 2003 Marquette had a triple digit defense and a #2 offense. At least for the overall winner they typically also have a very strong offense.Yeah, offense is actually a stronger predictor than defense. Chad Brendel put it well: When an opponent can make contested shots at a reasonable clip, you have to have the scoring to match them.

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[XUFan09]

Youre looking at data from after the tournament. If you look at where teams are before the tournament, most F4 teams are not elite defensively. In general though, I dont put a lot of stock into all these Kenpom "check boxes" to make a run in the tournament. It all boils down to finding fancy ways to say better teams have a better chance of advancing in March. Well Xavier is really good, and they have intangibles a lot of teams dont. Senior leadership, tournament experience, and having the best player on the floor in almost every game they play. If their defense was better they would have a better chance of making a F4, but even factoring in defense, I still think Xavier is one of the 8 most likely teams to make the F4. Maybe poor defense loses them a game in the tournament. But I dont think its any more or less likely than the flaws of any other team in America.Yep. Citing Kenpom after the fact can be rather circular. If you're using Kenpom data frozen from the eve of the tournament, great, but that isn't as easily accessible.

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[xu82]

Yeah, offense is actually a stronger predictor than defense. Chad Brendel put it well: When an opponent can make contested shots at a reasonable clip, you have to have the scoring to match them.

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That reminds me of a recent home game.....sadly.

[XUFan09]

That reminds me of a recent home game.....sadly.Lol I immediately thought of it. Villanova hit a lot of contested shots and on that day, Xavier's scoring output wasn't as good as it could be to keep it close in the first half.

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[X Factor]

Someone should look up tempo for these teams. I have a feeling teams that play at a slower tempo have done better getting to Final Fours and winning it all.

[MuskieXU]

I wrote an article about this a couple years ago. I will say that Kenpom changes his formula from time to time so the numbers may be a little different now.

https://www.bannersontheparkway.com/2016/3/9/11186358/analyzing-kenpom-data-for-final-4-teams-is-xu-good-enough-to-make-a

Interestingly enough, only one team in the top 70 of tempo had made the final 4 from 2006 to 2015. And FWIW pre tourney data is readily available on the website if you have a subscription. That said, I think people try to be too clever with the data. It boils down to the best teams having the best chance in March. In the past the best teams were Top 40 in Offense and Defense, so those types of teams made the F4. Thats not the case this year so these types of arguments dont really hold water.

[XUFan09]

Someone should look up tempo for these teams. I have a feeling teams that play at a slower tempo have done better getting to Final Fours and winning it all.I mean, playing really fast isn't the ideal, but a moderately up-tempo pace where a team creates and takes advantage of transition opportunities isn't bad. Wisconsin-slow isn't that common among Final Four teams, because they don't extend leads enough against opponents and fewer possessions (read: smaller sample sizes) leads to greater variability in outcomes.

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[xu82]

I mean, playing really fast isn't the ideal, but a moderately up-tempo pace where a team creates and takes advantage of transition opportunities isn't bad. Wisconsin-slow isn't that common among Final Four teams, because they don't extend leads enough against opponents and fewer possessions (read: smaller sample sizes) leads to greater variability in outcomes.

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I think that’s particularly true this year when we go so deep. We can stay fresh while running some teams into the ground.

[X Factor]

Interestingly enough, only one team in the top 70 of tempo had made the final 4 from 2006 to 2015.

That is very interesting. Pretty much what I thought.

Last year (Elite 8), Xavier's ADJ Tempo was 223, significantly slower than this year, which is 56.

Two years ago (second round upset), X's ADJ Tempo was 32.

[XUFan09]

That is very interesting. Pretty much what I thought.

Last year (Elite 8), Xavier's ADJ Tempo was 223, significantly slower than this year, which is 56.

Two years ago (second round upset), X's ADJ Tempo was 32.IIRC the average tempo of Final Four teams is above average but not drastically so.

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[X Factor]

IIRC the average tempo of Final Four teams is above average but not drastically so.

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Xavier's Elite 8's.

2004 Elite 8 ADJ Tempo - 230

2008 Elite 8 ADJ Tempo - 225

2017 Elite 8 ADJ Tempo - 223


There it is folks. Xavier just needs to slow down their tempo to around 220-230 and we're guaranteed at least an Elite 8 appearance!!

[XUFan09]

Xavier's Elite 8's.

2004 Elite 8 ADJ Tempo - 230

2008 Elite 8 ADJ Tempo - 225

2017 Elite 8 ADJ Tempo - 223


There it is folks. Xavier just needs to slow down their tempo to around 220-230 and we're guaranteed at least an Elite 8 appearance!!Lol

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[MuskieXU]

That is very interesting. Pretty much what I thought.

Last year (Elite 8), Xavier's ADJ Tempo was 223, significantly slower than this year, which is 56.

Two years ago (second round upset), X's ADJ Tempo was 32.

That said, UNC and Gonzaga had Top 100 tempos last year. I dont think this is a case of having a fast tempo putting you at a disadvantage in March. Most good teams just dont really play at a very fast tempo.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Defense wins championships and the past 16 winners had great defense. X doesn’t have great defense. So if they are to win a NC this year then they will have to go against what the stats say.

[Xavier]

Defense wins championships and the past 16 winners had great defense. X doesn’t have great defense. So if they are to win a NC this year then they will have to go against what the stats say.

So, you think UC has a better shot to win it all then X?

[bleedXblue]

X needs to improve and quite honestly a change in mindset. We have to get tougher on the defensive side of the ball. One thing that drives me crazy is the lack of turnovers and easy baskets this defense (and for several years back) creates. It's keep your guy in front of you........which we do pretty well, and then they simply just shoot over the top of us at an alarmingly high rate.

[X Factor]

So, you think UC has a better shot to win it all then X?

No because their offense stinks. Xavier has the offense, but with a defensive efficiency ranking in the 70's, history has shown that usually doesn't cut it. Hopefully X tightens up their D down the stretch or we get ridiculously hot in the tournament.

[XUGRAD80]

2246


Don’t know how well this will show up but these are the current Vegas odds to win a NC.

X is 10-1

Nova is 1st with a 9-2
Followed by Mich. State, Virginia, and Duke, then X

They certainly aren’t infallible, but betting against Vegas doesn’t usually pay off. I’ll take those odds.

[chico]

I think you guys may be underselling our defense. We play in one of the most offensive minded conferences around. 4 of the top 19 teams in terns of offensive efficiency are in the Big East (we're 10th - Nova is 1st). Two more are in the top 60 - that's roughly 30% of our games against top 60 offenses. When you face offenses that good your defense is bound to look a little worse than it actually is.

I completely understand the need for defense - our old high school coach used to tell us that if you hold the other team scoreless the worst you can do is tie. But when you look at the level of offenses we've faced maybe our defense isn't as bad as some make it out to be.

[xu koop scoop]

It your opponent is making close to 50% or more of their 3 balls, then you are in trouble. NOVA did this to us Saturday. Butler did this to NOVA earlier.
You eventually have to guard the 3 line better, leaving the inside open. We seem to have a team that could go Elite 8 again, but will fall flat unless we can avoid a NOVA type team to reach Final 4. I imagine a #2 seed for us & Road to Final 4 might be an Elite 8 game vs a #4 seed or lower. We made 1 of our Sweet 16's by avoiding Duke who lost to Lehigh. We need that kind of luck to reach this Final 4.

[muethibp]

My calculations have to be off but maybe they arnt. The avg championship game defensive record was 22.5 and the avg final 4 60.25. Is that right? I think other then a few exceptions defensive teams are the ones who make the final
4.

I didn't see anyone correct this post. Maybe I missed it. But the average calculations are off.

For final game appearance over all of the data here, the calculation is:(7+5+3+14+4+6+5+4+7+4+7+11+1+2+9+18+5+7+15+46+7 +3+1+37+10+32+11+35+5+21+1+11)/32 = 11.06.

Not going to spend the time doing the calculation for all of the final 4 teams but here's the last 5 years:

(20+1+6+37+3+10+32+35+1+11+35+27+5+21+17+18+1+11+1 7+3)/20 = 15.55

You can quibble with when the data was grabbed - before the tournament or after (though I don't think the post-tournament effect is too dramatic...yes, you won games so you probably played good defense but you also played elite teams through the tournament so it's not easy-pickings to improve the numbers) - but the overall point is pretty obvious: with only rare exceptions, teams advance to the final 4 because they have an elite defense. Xavier's is currently 70th. Draw your own conclusions then about the Final 4 prospects.

[XUFan09]

I didn't see anyone correct this post. Maybe I missed it. But the average calculations are off.

For final game appearance over all of the data here, the calculation is:(7+5+3+14+4+6+5+4+7+4+7+11+1+2+9+18+5+7+15+46+7 +3+1+37+10+32+11+35+5+21+1+11)/32 = 11.06.

Not going to spend the time doing the calculation for all of the final 4 teams but here's the last 5 years:

(20+1+6+37+3+10+32+35+1+11+35+27+5+21+17+18+1+11+1 7+3)/20 = 15.55

You can quibble with when the data was grabbed - before the tournament or after (though I don't think the post-tournament effect is too dramatic...yes, you won games so you probably played good defense but you also played elite teams through the tournament so it's not easy-pickings to improve the numbers) - but the overall point is pretty obvious: with only rare exceptions, teams advance to the final 4 because they have an elite defense. Xavier's is currently 70th. Draw your own conclusions then about the Final 4 prospects.It's actually pretty easy to improve the numbers in the tournament for the teams that win, because the efficiency numbers are adjusted for opponent. If you beat good opponents on a neutral floor, your numbers are likely to go up. So, pre-tournament numbers are actually important, even though they're not going to completely change the narrative for a team whose defense is ranked so low.

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[THRILLHOUSE]

Defense wins championships and the past 16 winners had great defense. X doesn’t have great defense. So if they are to win a NC this year then they will have to go against what the stats say.

Offense has still been a little more important.

In the KenPom era (2002 - Present), all but one champion has been in the Top 22 in AdjO rankings (pre-tournament). 10 of those have been in the Top 5, compared to only 3 Top 5 Defense teams winning it all. The only outlier in that group is 2014 UConn, who was #58 in AdjO, but they had Shabazz Napier who caught fire at the right time. 12 of the 16 champs had a better AdjO ranking than AdjD ranking going into the tournament. Along with that UConn team, the 2013 UofL team* would be the other champ that I'd say had a significantly better D than Offense (#1 D/#17 O).

Now of course you still want to have a good defense and I'm not at all saying it isn't important, but having an elite offense seems to produce more champs. Probably want to be Top 15 Offense/Top 40 Defense. Of course, if that holds true, X still wouldn't be cutting down the nets, but with the amount of times Top 10 teams have gone down this year, wouldn't shock me if the 2018 champ doesn't meet that criteria. So f-ck it, might as well be X that breaks the mold!

*and I guess now I can disregard that UofL team since technically it never happened!

[chico]

Offense has still been a little more important.

In the KenPom era (2002 - Present), all but one champion has been in the Top 22 in AdjO rankings (pre-tournament). 10 of those have been in the Top 5, compared to only 3 Top 5 Defense teams winning it all. The only outlier in that group is 2014 UConn, who was #58 in AdjO, but they had Shabazz Napier who caught fire at the right time. 12 of the 16 champs had a better AdjO ranking than AdjD ranking going into the tournament. Along with that UConn team, the 2013 UofL team would be the other champ that I'd say had a significantly better D than Offense (#1 D/#17 O).

Now of course you still want to have a good defense and I'm not at all saying it isn't important, but having an elite offense seems to produce more champs. Probably want to be Top 15 Offense/Top 40 Defense. Of course, if that holds true, X still wouldn't be cutting down the nets, but with the amount of times Top 10 teams have gone down this year, wouldn't shock me if the 2018 champ doesn't meet that criteria. So f-ck it, might as well be X that breaks the mold!

Great point. Everyone is so worried about our defense but our offense is the caliber that can get us pretty far.

I guess the point to take from all this is that pretty good teams usually get to the final 4.

[XU 87]

I quote a famous reporter- "Everyone in the NCAA tournament is hustling and playing their best defense. To win in the NCAA, you have to have good offense. That's why Huggins got beat so early so often when he was at UC."

[D-West & PO-Z]

And not to beat a dead horse (as I have posted in other threads) but we made the Elite 8 last year with essentially the same ranked D and this year our offense is much higher ranked this year. Our defense is our weakness, yes, but when you look at our team as a whole, I think they have shown they have the ability to be a Final 4 team.

[XUBison]

Normally you hear that teams manufacture offense by playing good defense... get some stops to create momentum, and the shots will start to fall. It seems to be the opposite for this team. Like offense is too easy for them, and they expect to simply shoot themselves out of a dry stretch, rather than having to lock in on defense. When the shots are falling, they dial in and often play their best defense. When shots are not falling, there is little defense to be found. Regardless,we’ve seen this team play stretches of good defense when it’s mattered this season (excluding the stupid 2nd half against Seton Hall, of corse), and we definitely saw them turn it on in the tourney last year. We know this team is a matchup nightmare, which should be especially true in the tourney against teams who haven’t faced us. Play with a consistent defensive effort in the tourney, and anything can happen.

[X Factor]

Just a couple of weeks ago, Duke had a defensive efficiency ranking just slightly better than Xavier. Today, their defensive efficiency ranking is #16. That is a huge turnaround! I think Coach K has them playing a 2-3 zone and that seems to have made a huge difference.

Has a 1 seed ever had a comparable defensive efficiency ranking to Xavier this year?

[GIMMFD]

We don't need to be the best defensive team in the universe, just need to be able to get the key stops when it matters, and close out better on 3s. Can't let teams get red hot and thrash us from deep. I have a lot of faith in guys like Gates, Marshall, and Scruggs to clamp down, and our offense is one of the best in the country. If we can get key stops, and just not let teams score at will on us, we can win the National Championship no matter what the statistics say, just because we have 7 different weapons on offense.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I hope we meet Virginia because we would beat them. Any team who struggles or isn’t a great scoring team we will beat

[chico]

If we can get key stops, and just not let teams score at will on us, we can win the National Championship no matter what the statistics say, just because we have 7 different weapons on offense.

That is what I absolutely love about this team. Nobody has to get their points. If matches dictate we pound it inside we have the 2-headed monster down low (am I allowed to call Jones and O'Mara "ebony and ivory" or is that against the rules in our present day culture). Need some outside shooting, not an issue. Mismatch against our point guard - he's taking it to the hoop. If a guy gets hot - like Kanter, for instance - guys make a point of getting him the ball. If he goes cold, find someone like Marshall, or J.P. who can lovingly drop 25 on you. If we need a clutch basket, Trevor's pretty good. Nobody has the depth and versatility on offense like we do.

As far as the defense, our secret weapon is the 1-3-1. I'm guessing we didn't play it much during the conference games because those teams are used to it and are ready for it. Teams in the tournament will be a different story. It's a defense very few teams see and it will are hard to prep for with just a few days to plan.

[GIMMFD]

That is what I absolutely love about this team. Nobody has to get their points. If matches dictate we pound it inside we have the 2-headed monster down low (am I allowed to call Jones and O'Mara "ebony and ivory" or is that against the rules in our present day culture). Need some outside shooting, not an issue. Mismatch against our point guard - he's taking it to the hoop. If a guy gets hot - like Kanter, for instance - guys make a point of getting him the ball. If he goes cold, find someone like Marshall, or J.P. who can lovingly drop 25 on you. If we need a clutch basket, Trevor's pretty good. Nobody has the depth and versatility on offense like we do.

As far as the defense, our secret weapon is the 1-3-1. I'm guessing we didn't play it much during the conference games because those teams are used to it and are ready for it. Teams in the tournament will be a different story. It's a defense very few teams see and it will are hard to prep for with just a few days to plan.

It also helps that we have two athletic freshman in Naji and Scruggs who get after it defensively, sure the offense doesn't run as smooth with Scruggs opposed to Q, but he's done an amazing job the past few weeks, and really is great defensively, I think it'll make our overall defense better in March, but I agree with the 1-3-1. It throws a wrinkle in because teams aren't used to seeing it, also agree that the conference has adjusted to it, but the tournament is great because it's always a match-up you don't really see. I have no doubt Mack knows how to gameplan against teams. Our offense is amazing, we just need our defense to be enough.

[xu koop scoop]

On the D side, it seemed we used some 2-3 zone in the NCAA rather effectively.

[X Factor]

After tonight, Xavier's defensive efficiency ranking is down to 75. Still going the wrong way on defense and that has me worried. That's easily the worst defensive ranking of any of the projected 1 and 2 seeds. Probably 3 seeds too.

[AviatorX]

After tonight, Xavier's defensive efficiency ranking is down to 75. Still going the wrong way on defense and that has me worried. That's easily the worst defensive ranking of any of the projected 1 and 2 seeds. Probably 3 seeds too.

Yeah, I mean the metrics obviously aren't going to get to the "range" at this point.

[Section 200]

After tonight, Xavier's defensive efficiency ranking is down to 75. Still going the wrong way on defense and that has me worried. That's easily the worst defensive ranking of any of the projected 1 and 2 seeds. Probably 3 seeds too.

Mack doesn't seem to care what Kenpom thinks, he keeps playing a ton of players each game which results in closer games. I'm curious to see if the lineups get tighter in the NCAA Tourney or if he thinks having fresher legs is a big benefit at the end of the game.

[AviatorX]

Mack doesn't seem to care what Kenpom thinks, he keeps playing a ton of players each game which results in closer games. I'm curious to see if the lineups get tighter in the NCAA Tourney or if he thinks having fresher legs is a big benefit at the end of the game.

I think Mack absolutely cares what KenPom thinks. There is literally a sign big as life in the locker room with the team's current KenPom defensive ranking.

[Backyard Champ]

Mack doesn't seem to care what Kenpom thinks, he keeps playing a ton of players each game which results in closer games. I'm curious to see if the lineups get tighter in the NCAA Tourney or if he thinks having fresher legs is a big benefit at the end of the game.

If his plan all year was to have fresher legs at the end of the game, then why change it? Especially when you see how many games we've won at the end of the game.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Mack doesn't seem to care what Kenpom thinks, he keeps playing a ton of players each game which results in closer games. I'm curious to see if the lineups get tighter in the NCAA Tourney or if he thinks having fresher legs is a big benefit at the end of the game.

Who would you take minutes from? Why would the rotation change now?

[markchal]

It's alarming, for sure. On occasion, we can play pretty good D, but our seniors seem to be our biggest weakness there. Hoping we can 1-3-1 some people and that will create havoc for teams not used to facing it (way less effective in BE when teams are pretty familiar with how to attack now).

[OTRMUSKIE]

No reason to worry about defense. This team is winning despite the defense. I have faith this team will just keep on keeping on. Only 2 teams I don’t want to see. Arizona St and Nova. Everybody else we will beat to cut down the nets.