Dance Card Time!!!!!!

[OTRMUSKIE]

Best site out there. Look who the wild card team is. Temple!!!!
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[OTRMUSKIE]

Oh and Arizona St is last team in. This site is scary accurate too

[bobbiemcgee]

Time for the new Dance Card:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[bleedXblue]

Yeah, NO......... lots of laughable seed projections here

[OTRMUSKIE]

Dance card doesn’t predict seeds they predict bids and they are historically accurate.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Temple is in??? It’s not even close according to dance card

[GoMuskies]

That would surprise all the bracketologists. They only appear on 5 of 83 brackets at the Bracket Matrix.

[OTRMUSKIE]

The one year dance card had Dayton as first team out and everybody had Dayton easily in. Not last 4 byes just completely in. Turns out Dance Card was almost right seeing VD was last team in. I think if Temple makes it to the finals and wins out reg season they prob are in.

[IM4X]

Dance card doesn’t predict seeds they predict bids and they are historically accurate.

I dont see last year’s predictions!

Looks like they are not showing 2017. Wonder why?

Maybe they dropped below 90% in accuracy last year and decide it would look bad to post it?

If I’m just missing it somewhere and they did predict last years teams to make the tournament, I’d be curious to see if their model predicted X would make it?

Do you see 2017’s predictions?

[IM4X]

Not saying it’d be easy to pick better than them, but I think it should be pointed out that most people who followed a bit of NCAA basketball this year could probably predict the teams to make the tournament with better than 80% accuracy (at least 55 of the 68 teams).

Still, if their prediction are locked in before teams play their conference tournament then it is quite impressive. On the other hand, if this model allows for changes in projected tournament teams after conference tournaments have been decided (and surprise conference winners have been determined) then the model is not quite as impressive.

Think I’ll see if I can beat their percentage/prediction this year. Should be fun.

I will start by predicting Syracuse is going to be left out (Dance Card has them in) and Arizona State is in (DC is predicting they will be out).

[paulxu]

Do you see 2017’s predictions?

No, I don't see last years. According to this article they got 'em all right. But it only notes 64 teams, not the 68 real total, so who knows.
Strange they don't have last year's results on their web page.

https://blogs.sas.com/content/sascom/2017/03/22/perfect-shot/

[THRILLHOUSE]

Not saying it’d be easy to pick better than them, but I think it should be pointed out that most people who followed a bit of NCAA basketball this year could probably predict the teams to make the tournament with better than 80% accuracy (at least 55 of the 68 teams).

.

Yeah, most "bracketologists" are good at predicting who's going to make the tournament, other than one or two "surprises" within the last couple of spots. The really good ones are those who can predict the seed lines. This is something Lunardi and Palm really struggle at. And then when they are wrong will just use a "well clearly this year the Committee valued <insert metric here> more than they have in the past" excuse for why they were so off.

[XU '11]

The year that SMU was "shockingly" left out, Dance Card also had them out.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I think the Dayton one was proof of show good they are. I mean Dayton was supposed to be like a 8/9 seed and DC had them first team out. I know they didn’t get it right but Dayton was the last team in that year. I think Temple is the big surprise here. I just don’t see how they can get in.

[IM4X]

Yeah, most "bracketologists" are good at predicting who's going to make the tournament, other than one or two "surprises" within the last couple of spots. The really good ones are those who can predict the seed lines. This is something Lunardi and Palm really struggle at. And then when they are wrong will just use a "well clearly this year the Committee valued <insert metric here> more than they have in the past" excuse for why they were so off.

It’s kind of like someone telling you they consistently got 94% or better on every test they take only to learn that 55 or more of the total 68 questions on every test they take are easy enough for a kindergartener to get correct. It still impressive to get most answers right, but it just not the same when you realize a young kid is capable of getting more than 80% correct without really even trying.

I’d be curious to see how many teams Lunardi got right (which Should probably be rather easy to figure out). Maybe it would seem more impressive if Dance Card proved it consistently gets 50% more correct than the bracketologist do with those remaining 13 or so slots that either go to bubble teams or surprise winners of conference tournaments.

[IM4X]

No, I don't see last years. According to this article they got 'em all right. But it only notes 64 teams, not the 68 real total, so who knows.
Strange they don't have last year's results on their web page.

https://blogs.sas.com/content/sascom/2017/03/22/perfect-shot/

thanks so much! For sharing the link. I had trouble find even that bit of info about 2017.

I am still trying to figure out at what point their final predictions lock into place - that would really help to show how special or not so special Dance Card is. If their predictions are finalized before conference tournaments are played, then the 94%+ accuracy would certainly be more impressive.

[paulxu]

If you want to get into the weeds on this, here is a spreadsheet that the KPI guy did about last year's results of picking the whole field.
He shows all 6 metrics (plus an extra) that are the actual 6 metrics supposedly to be used by the committee this year.
You can follow all 6 of those by team, on the Team Sheets at Warren Nolan's site.
KPI is one of the 6 used, and he got them all right last year but 1. He also shows how close he and the others got to the correct seed line.

http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2016-17-D-I-MBB-Metric-Comparison-1.pdf

[IM4X]

If you want to get into the weeds on this, here is a spreadsheet that the KPI guy did about last year's results of picking the whole field.
He shows all 6 metrics (plus an extra) that are the actual 6 metrics supposedly to be used by the committee this year.
You can follow all 6 of those by team, on the Team Sheets at Warren Nolan's site.
KPI is one of the 6 used, and he got them all right last year but 1. He also shows how close he and the others got to the correct seed line.

http://www.kpisports.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/2016-17-D-I-MBB-Metric-Comparison-1.pdf

Thanks for the link again.

If I am reading it correctly, it looks as if everyone ended up at 92% accuracy or better (correctly predicting at least 63 of the 68 teams).

Also notice that most missed on predicting that Providence would get in last year.

[GoMuskies]

Temple is in??? It’s not even close according to dance card

UConn killed the Temple dream tonight.

[OTRMUSKIE]

So Temple finally has been eliminated!!!! They just moved them out today. However, creighton is the last team in and Marquette appears to be safe somehow. I just don’t see anyway WOJO gets a bid but a creighton better not be too confident because they could very easily be put in the PIG.

[XUFan09]

So Temple finally has been eliminated!!!! They just moved them out today. However, creighton is the last team in and Marquette appears to be safe somehow. I just don’t see anyway WOJO gets a bid but a creighton better not be too confident because they could very easily be put in the PIG.Dance Card has never been known for seed line accuracy. Creighton is not in danger of being In the play-in game.

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[OTRMUSKIE]

Dance Card has never been known for seed line accuracy. Creighton is not in danger of being In the play-in game.

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Now I agree with you on creighton but don’t be surprise if they are in the PIG. This is what DC does best!!!! Dayton thought the same thing a few years ago too.

[XUFan09]

Now I agree with you on creighton but don’t be surprise if they are in the PIG. This is what DC does best!!!! Dayton thought the same thing a few years ago too.Again, it isn't what Dance Card does best. Dance Card is really good at predicting the field but not that good at predicting seed lines. The Bracket Matrix composite and some of the better bracketologists are much better at the latter.

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[drudy23]

This will be interesting as this is very different from who the main bracketologists have in (mainly ESPN and Palm).

MTSU, Marquette, Arizona St

[stammina0721]

Again, it isn't what Dance Card does best. Dance Card is really good at predicting the field but not that good at predicting seed lines. The Bracket Matrix composite and some of the better bracketologists are much better at the latter.

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Yeah there is no way Creighton is in PIG in my opinion.

[OTRMUSKIE]

All I said was don’t be surprised. DC is very accurate on these things.

[XUFan09]

All I said was don’t be surprised. DC is very accurate on these things.On selection, not seeding. So yeah, I will be surprised if a prediction outlier given by a historically mediocre seeding predictor proves correct. There are always surprises in the bracket, but that would be one of the more unusual ones in awhile.

Stop conflating Dance Card's predictive power for selection with their predictive power for seeding. They are much better at the former than the latter.

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[OTRMUSKIE]

They suck at seeding which is why I never said they were GOOD AT. Dance card is scary good though. It’s what they do best.

[xukeith]

Thanks for the link again.

If I am reading it correctly, it looks as if everyone ended up at 92% accuracy or better (correctly predicting at least 63 of the 68 teams).

Also notice that most missed on predicting that Providence would get in last year.

And today's has Marquette as in. No way. I would love that for BE money but they don't compare to other "bubble" teams.
I hope I am wrong and the site is correct.

[xukeith]

This will be interesting as this is very different from who the main bracketologists have in (mainly ESPN and Palm).

MTSU, Marquette, Arizona St

Agree with you.

[xavierj]

And today's has Marquette as in. No way. I would love that for BE money but they don't compare to other "bubble" teams.
I hope I am wrong and the site is correct.

They did beat Providence once and beat Creighton and Seton Hall each twice. It will
Be close but I think they get in.

[OTRMUSKIE]

If they get Marquette right and creighton is in the PIG they need to be crowned the true champs of predicting.

[Muskie]

Can you imagine the collision of Creighton and UD fanbases at the PIG in Dayton. I would pay to see it. Creighton could turn that place 1/2 blue.


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[bjf123]

I think Davidson’s surprise win of the A-10 tourney just might have burst Marquette’s bubble.


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[XUFan09]

They suck at seeding which is why I never said they were GOOD AT. Dance card is scary good though. It’s what they do best.Then why are you acting like Dance Card picking them for a play-in game is really meaningful, when that's a matter of seeding?

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[XUFan09]

I think Davidson’s surprise win of the A-10 tourney just might have burst Marquette’s bubble.


Sent from my iPad using TapatalkThere was a rumor on the college basketball subreddit that Oklahoma State was the cut-off team if Davidson won. I think they said that Oklahoma would then move to the play-in game.

One of those unnamed Committee sources type of things. We'll know soon enough if it was legit.

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[D-West & PO-Z]

I forget, does the committee reveal the teams that just missed? Like will they say their first four out in order?

[XUFan09]

I forget, does the committee reveal the teams that just missed? Like will they say their first four out in order?I believe they announce them now, as they are the 1 seeds in the NIT.

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[OTRMUSKIE]

They will say who the last 4 teams are at the end of the bracket.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Dance card was scary awful this year.