Vegas Loves the Muskies

[bpo]

Quick look at ATS thought the first 8 games.

Favored in all.

Covered in all except ASU

Over hitting 6-2.

For those that follow first half lines have been favorable to soft. I'm guessing this next schedule segment we will start to see a bump both in the lines and u/o.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/xavier

2217

[SemajParlor]

Quick look at ATS thought the first 8 games.

Favored in all.

Covered in all except ASU

Over hitting 6-2.

For those that follow first half lines have been favorable to soft. I'm guessing this next schedule segment we will start to see a bump both in the lines and u/o.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-basketball/teams/team-page.cfm/team/xavier

2217

It's a trend I have noticed as well for sure. Speaking as someone who had a particular interest in -3.5 1H vs ASU, that was a tough one.

[bpo]

Judging by the pick score from forum members I'm guessing the line settles between 22-28. First half number will be interesting on this one.

Golden flashes have had 4 lines this year, been favored twice and dogs twice. Have covered both times as a favorite, and have loss both times as the dog. Averaging 80 points per game.
Overs hit 1/4
Under hit 3/4

[SemajParlor]

I approve of this strategical thread.

[skyking]

Looks like we need 22+ over Kent State.

[bpo]

I'm guessing the u/o opens at north of 150? just a guess. Kent State's 1st game of the year was 167.5 and they won 111-78 - WAY OVER. They can score from three spots. Flow and sub patterns for this game will determine cover and u/o IMO.

[Emp]

-23 , 155 OU.

TRAP GAME ON THE OVER IMHO. Exams start next week, UC hangover.....I suppose neither team could play defense, Scrugs and Naji looking to pad stats in a track meet, but I don't think so.

[bpo]

whole heartedly agree that it's at the very least a line trap. The -10 first half line is intriguing.

If anything I would think the unranked teams wreaking havoc on ranked teams yesterday might be the wake up call Mack and the coaching staff need to pound a point home that you can't take any days off.

With Xaviers tendency to play incomplete halves, and at the very least continue to have 2-4 minute segments each half where they have empty possessions on offense, and allow easy buckets on D - the u/o becomes a compelling play.

I'll post where I'm at after I look at some stuff and do some drunk Irish math....

[GetUp5]

whole heartedly agree that it's at the very least a line trap. The -10 first half line is intriguing.

If anything I would think the unranked teams wreaking havoc on ranked teams yesterday might be the wake up call Mack and the coaching staff need to pound a point home that you can't take any days off.

With Xaviers tendency to play incomplete halves, and at the very least continue to have 2-4 minute segments each half where they have empty possessions on offense, and allow easy buckets on D - the u/o becomes a compelling play.

I'll post where I'm at after I look at some stuff and do some drunk Irish math....

It's just a simple formula. Vegas doesn't spend hours debating what they should set the Xavier lines at. KenPom has X by 21. -22 sounds about right.

[bpo]

wasn't debating the line(s) - was simply stating in the last post that I thought there were some compelling plays with todays numbers, and that I was going to figure out the game flow and base any plays(for those so inclined) off of that. I pretty sure I understand how lines are made.

[GetUp5]

wasn't debating the line(s) - was simply stating in the last post that I thought there were some compelling plays with todays numbers, and that I was going to figure out the game flow and base any plays(for those so inclined) off of that. I pretty sure I understand how lines are made.

Well you used the Pick the Score thread to come up with what you think the line would be and keep saying "u/o" so just trying to help.

FWIW, don't think you could justify laying 23 w/ X in this letdown spot. Probably staying away, but I'll be at the game so may play X TT U 89.5 for small potatoes.

[paulxu]

You guys need a reflection session with Nigel.

[bpo]

Well you used the Pick the Score thread to come up with what you think the line would be and keep saying "u/o" so just trying to help.

FWIW, don't think you could justify laying 23 w/ X in this letdown spot. Probably staying away, but I'll be at the game so may play X TT U 89.5 for small potatoes.

I guess the sarcasm from the pick score thread didn't translate. That's on me!

I agree with your FWIW.

I'm on first half X -10 & the over the 155.

Reduced minutes for Tyrique and Trevon.
Big Minutes for Naji and Paul and Elias?
Omara battling the 7 footer.

We shall see.

[bpo]

I guess the sarcasm from the pick score thread didn't translate. That's on me!

I agree with your FWIW.

I'm on first half X -10 & the over the 155.

Reduced minutes for Tyrique and Trevon.
Big Minutes for Naji and Paul and Elias?
Omara battling the 7 footer.

We shall see.

Line down to 22.5
Over up to 155.5

[Nigel Tufnel]

You guys need a reflection session with Nigel.

Ha!! I only get involved when someone posts that Vegas is trying to get even money on both sides so they win the juice.

[bpo]

Ha!! I only get involved when someone posts that Vegas is trying to get even money on both sides so they win the juice.

I wish there was a like feature on posts....

[Nigel Tufnel]

X line is -24/-24.5 now. Maybe it's having 3 kids running my ass ragged...I enjoy betting on X when I like the line movements or when I just have a feeling based on watching them for years. But I no longer bet to bet. X -24/24.5 is something I'm just no longer interested in after the Shootout. Not saying they won't cover...but I'm not taking Kent plus the points either. I'll just watch and enjoy this one. (You probably wouldn't be shocked to learn that this philosophy has saved me a shitload of money..ha)

[cutterX]

I enjoy the analysis BPO! Didn’t get a chance to make a play tonight but please keep posting future games if you are so inclined.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I enjoy the analysis BPO! Didn’t get a chance to make a play tonight but please keep posting future games if you are so inclined.

Agree...but it gets so much harder as the season advances. Until the tourney...then it's open game.

[bpo]

Thanks for the kind words - will continue to do so.

Nigel - I agree with the increasing difficulty, which was the jumping off point for the original thread. Vegas likes to autocorrect trends from time to time, and 8-1 ATS is screaming for increasingly scrutinized lines - seeing some variance with the EU and offshore digital books with this game, I expect to see that trend continuing.

First half hit last night at X -13.5
Second Half hit with X -9.5 (gotta love edging the hook)
Over of 155.5 lands
X covers as mentioned above the -23.5

GETUP5's TT of 89.5 for X lands as well.

Hopefully everyone got a little love last night. I through one together for CU tomorrow. When you are sick of looking at em, let me know and I'll shut it down.

[bobbiemcgee]

Bet of the year could be ASU favored by only 4.5 over SJU.

[GoMuskies]

Bet of the year could be ASU favored by only 4.5 over SJU.

I looked at it...but I'm certain if I bet it that ASU would shoot 3-33 from three and lose by 30.

[XMuskieFTW]

Bet of the year could be ASU favored by only 4.5 over SJU.

Especially with Lovett out. I'd be very surprised if St. John's keeps it to single digits.

[Xville]

Bet of the year could be ASU favored by only 4.5 over SJU.

that line makes absolutely no sense. when that kind of line is thrown out there, something fishy is going on. Bet the house on SJU.

[SemajParlor]

Bet of the year could be ASU favored by only 4.5 over SJU.

http://azdailysun.com/five-men-sentenced-in-arizona-state-basketball-point-shaving-scandal/article_0e78f43f-529e-554c-bbb7-3cddef1009b8.html

[bpo]

Especially with Lovett out. I'd be very surprised if St. John's keeps it to single digits.

Just saw that it looks like he is expected to miss his third game tonight, meaning he didn't travel separately I believe.

That being said, I see some match up and styles of play that will keep the Johnnies competitive in this game. Very intriguing spread. If it would have posted as ASU -7 no one would have said anything about it. I think the SJU D coupled with how the game is officiated is the key to this game. If SJU is allowed to play a little physical, along with their foot speed, I like their chances of hanging in. I would guess that this game is under the 159 if that happens.

[GetUp5]

Anyone else watch St. John's against Grand Canyon the other night? Probably not since it started at 11:30, but I'm a degenerate so what can I say..

Grand Canyon was AWFUL. They're picked to finish 1st in the WAC, it's their first year eligible for the NCAA tourney, they have a senior laden roster and they had a chance against a team from a big conference at a "neutral" site, although GCU probably had 4-5k students there (they're crazy). They laid an absolute egg and were still within 5-6 points at the end of the game.

GCU was 8-32 from 3, had 21 turnovers, and were 12-22 from the FT line and SJU struggled to put them away.

The computer rankings like SJU because of their defensive efficiency and they're actually ranked higher than ASU in KenPom.

Hammering ASU.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

I live in Phoenix so I saw that game. It was very sloppy. Hurley should have no issue out coaching Mullins or really the assistant who draws all the plays. That said live and die by the three. Does ASU get Mitchell or Lawrence yet? I don’t think so.


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[bpo]

Trending upward to ASU -5.5. Line moving down to 158.

Seeing some offshore online showing ASU -115 up from the normal. Me thinks a lot of folks are with GETUP5 and hammering hard.

[bpo]

There appears to be some action on this at the Wynn:
Spread Total 1st Half
12/07 10:00pm ASU-4.5 -110 STJOHN+4.5 -110
12/08 10:38am ASU-5.5 -110 STJOHN+5.5 -110
12/08 10:39am ASU-5.5 -110 STJOHN+5.5 -110 158.5 -110 158.5 -110
12/08 10:40am ASU-5.5 -110 STJOHN+5.5 -110 158.5 -110 158.5 -110 ASU-3 STJOHN+3
12/08 11:03am ASU-5.5 -110 STJOHN+5.5 -110 158.0 -110 158.0 -110 ASU-3 STJOHN+3
12/08 3:18pm ASU-5 -110 STJOHN+5 -110 158.0 -110 158.0 -110 ASU-3 STJOHN+3
12/08 3:21pm ASU-4.5 -110 STJOHN+4.5 -110 158.0 -110 158.0 -110 ASU-2.5 STJOHN+2.5
12/08 3:21pm ASU-4.5 -110 STJOHN+4.5 -110 158.0 -110 158.0 -110 ASU-3 STJOHN+3

[bpo]

Game being officiated very Pac12-y. SJU really misses LoVett on O.


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[bobbiemcgee]

asu by 12.

[Xville]

And that's why I don't get on sports any longer. Maybe Vegas just hadn't figured asu out yet.

[bpo]

SJU had three straight possession to tie or take the lead inside 3 minutes and came up empty. The final doesn’t tell the story. SJU going down 18 in the first half before getting to down to two in the second half is a more telling story.


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[American X]

Xavier -20 vs. ETSU. Vegas is more confident in the Buccaneers than I would have thought at first glance.

[Lloyd Braun]

Xavier -20 vs. ETSU. Vegas is more confident in the Buccaneers than I would have thought at first glance.

Opened at -19.5. I’m sure some will ride the X wave of covers but I kind of like ETSU. At least for the 1st half.

[Lloyd Braun]

Opened at -19.5. I’m sure some will ride the X wave of covers but I kind of like ETSU. At least for the 1st half.

Win-win. (Borat voice) niiiiiiice

[American X]

Xavier -20 vs. ETSU. Vegas is more confident in the Buccaneers than I would have thought at first glance.


Opened at -19.5. I’m sure some will ride the X wave of covers but I kind of like ETSU. At least for the 1st half.

I hear it now...


East Tennessee State University is a worthy adversary. Good luck to them winning their conference and making the tournament.

[xu82]

Xavier -20 vs. ETSU. Vegas is more confident in the Buccaneers than I would have thought at first glance.

Did you mean -2.0? Uncanny!

I’ll take the W.

[Lloyd Braun]

I put $5 on X to win (+1000) when they were down 22. Not sure what I was thinking to only put $5 down.

[Lloyd Braun]

Is there a non-X gambling thread? Boise +6.5 was easy money today. Wanted to share with someone other than my degenerate friends.

[American X]

Xavier - 22 vs. Marshall. O/U 175.5. Is Marshall also secretly a good team with small, quick guards?

[Emp]

Bump. Not so much vs Marquette. Lines dropping.

[xukeith]

Take Butler giving 6 points at Georgetown. Butler will win easily.

[cutterX]

What about Nova giving 15 at DePaul? I know away games are hard in any conference but that seems like one to jump on.

[GoMuskies]

Take Butler giving 6 points at Georgetown. Butler will win easily.

That line is down to 4. Thinking of taking Georgetown just because that line moving down seems crazy.

[Lloyd Braun]

That line is down to 4. Thinking of taking Georgetown just because that line moving down seems crazy.

I jumped on Butler mostly bc I think it’s too low. But partially bc if I lose I will dislike them even more.

[Lloyd Braun]

I jumped on Butler mostly bc I think it’s too low. But partially bc if I lose I will dislike them even more.

I reallllly hate butler.

[xu82]

Take Butler giving 6 points at Georgetown. Butler will win easily.

Famous last words....

[Nigel Tufnel]

I jumped on Butler mostly bc I think it’s too low. But partially bc if I lose I will dislike them even more.

Butler is going to win by 3 in OT. You don't cover and miss the first 12 mins of the Xavier game.....

[Lloyd Braun]

Butler is going to win by 3 in OT. You don't cover and miss the first 12 mins of the Xavier game.....

This might be quite accurate.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I was close...

[paulxu]

I was close...

Can you give me a good call for the Muskies?

[GoMuskies]

Solid Georgetown/Xavier parlay tonight. Had both the whole way!

[Nigel Tufnel]

Can you give me a good call for the Muskies?

Ha! That was a comment made from year's of disappointment.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I did take X -3!!!!

[Emp]

Any clues on why -17 opener dropped to --15 in a few minutes on early opening sites, then further to -14 since?

[paulxu]

Nigel was taking the points

[flatspat]

per vegas insider X 9 pt dog

[BMoreX]

It could be 18, I'd still take Nova in a game at Nova.

[kmcrawfo]

per vegas insider X 9 pt dog

I have a feeling Trevon breaks out of his slump. I'll go with X and the points.

[Xuperman]

I predict Kaiser w/ 20/10....I have to....too much faith he will..

[GoMuskies]

I'll have a smallish play on the ML, whatever it is.

[muethibp]

I expect Villanova to win but 9 feels like a lot of points.

[OTRMUSKIE]

X almost lost to ETSU, Marshall and DePaul and did lose at Providence. You think 9 is too much? Man I hope you’re right because I think 9 is perfect and I honestly see Nova covering that. I hope all this negative talk pumps this team up and X pulls off the upset. At least it’s not in their bandbox.

[American X]

What is the over/under on how many times we throw the ball directly to a Villanova player?


Current lines Villanova -9.5 and O/U 165.

[bleedXblue]

they are gonna pressure us......Q better be ready to play 35 minutes

[Lloyd Braun]

X almost lost to ETSU, Marshall and DePaul and did lose at Providence. You think 9 is too much? Man I hope you’re right because I think 9 is perfect and I honestly see Nova covering that. I hope all this negative talk pumps this team up and X pulls off the upset. At least it’s not in their bandbox.

If you want Nova and giving some points you better get it in now. The line is going to go up. 9 is not enough I am afraid. We get drilled every time we go there. Hope I am dead wrong (which is often the case)

[mistabeecee41]

If you want Nova and giving some points you better get it in now. The line is going to go up. 9 is not enough I am afraid. We get drilled every time we go there. Hope I am dead wrong (which is often the case)

As a philly resident, it's not fun to watch in person. Regardless, I'm going again and am waiting for the line to get in the 11-12 range before putting down an X ML bet to make it more entertaining.

[boozehound]

I have no idea what to expect. I'm hoping we go out and play hard and loose like we have nothing to lose - honestly playing the #1 team on the road we are expected to lose. If we find our 'A' game and Villanova turns in a B- or worse game we can win.

I could also see us really turning in a stinker and losing by 30.

[xukeith]

Mack wants this win more than anyone. He is sick of losing.

[bjf123]

What is the over/under on how many times we throw the ball directly to a Villanova player?

I’ll go with 6.


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[Nigel Tufnel]

I'm hedging this one. Brain says something like Nova 88-68. But with an X money line of +445...gotta bite. If Nova covers, I still profit because I have to put so little on X at those odds. Quoting this post when X loses by 1-9 pts...

[xu koop scoop]

What would be really funny is if X blows them out by 20. Weird things happen. How much was Arizona favored over us in our Elite 8 Matchup?

[Lloyd Braun]

Line seems to be holding at -9.5.

I think we were 7.5pt dogs against Arizona. ML was in 300s I believe.

Edit: that was last years matchup not the Elite 8 matchup sorry. I don’t remember the 2015 lines.

[American X]

Xavier -3.5 vs. Creighton. Over/Under 167.5.

White Death +10000

[Nigel Tufnel]

X -6.5/161

I like this line. Higher than I thought it would be. Vegas likes X. Money already pouring in on Gtown. I was thinking it would be X -3.5.

[Lloyd Braun]

Kenpom (ducks for cover) suggests -5.5, 161.5
Which makes the -6.5 opening a head scratcher. Expecting a bounce back after Nova loss perhaps? Maybe there’s some deeper data that suggests a team usually covers after facing Nova?

[Nigel Tufnel]

I’m guessing it’s some inside info and X coming off the demoralizing loss.

[GoMuskies]

I'm not sure what about being one point off KenPom makes it a headscratcher. Ken doesn't set the lines. He just leads you to the neighborhood.

[Lloyd Braun]

I'm not sure what about being one point off KenPom makes it a headscratcher. Ken doesn't set the lines. He just leads you to the neighborhood.

It almost never goes the other way for the road team. First time all year I can remember, not that I check every game.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I'm not sure what about being one point off KenPom makes it a headscratcher. Ken doesn't set the lines. He just leads you to the neighborhood.

His love for UC and hatred for X on his metrics is head scratching. Has UC 8 slots ahead of X tonight. That's crazy. X can put the ball in the basket...UC can't. At least against a team with a pulse. I've watched their last two games...they excel at an up tempo game. Them Cronin slows them down into dribbling and passing around the permiter and chucking up a bad shot at the shot clock buzzer. It's like Groundhog's Day with his teams. He is not a good coach. But Ken Pom loves em!!!

[waggy]

X just gave up 65 points. In a half!

[muskiefan82]

X just gave up 65 points. In a half!

And won!!

[chico]

And covered!

[XU '11]

His love for UC and hatred for X on his metrics is head scratching. Has UC 8 slots ahead of X tonight. That's crazy. X can put the ball in the basket...UC can't. At least against a team with a pulse. I've watched their last two games...they excel at an up tempo game. Them Cronin slows them down into dribbling and passing around the permiter and chucking up a bad shot at the shot clock buzzer. It's like Groundhog's Day with his teams. He is not a good coach. But Ken Pom loves em!!!

I believe KenPom himself has admitted that teams that regularly blow out inferior competition get over-valued, but he hasn't figured out a way to correct it.

[stammina0721]

This screams sucker bet. Big loss and a bunch of close games recently. Everything screams bet Georgetown which is why I say bet X. Nothing big but this line smells fishy. Vegas is trying to push money towards Georgetown which is working since the line has dropped. I'd say bet X

[Lloyd Braun]

O/U down to 159.5
Line still 5.5 before tipoff.

Looks like Vegas is hoping stammina drops another G on the over.

[stammina0721]

Have not lost an over yet lol. I'll take over action but only for 100

[Lloyd Braun]

Have not lost an over yet lol. I'll take over action but only for 100

As I posted in the other thread X had been under in more than half BE games and I think most of those are road games.

[stammina0721]

Got the double whammy tonight. Got the X line and the over. Finding sucker lines is pretty easy

[Lloyd Braun]

Got the double whammy tonight. Got the X line and the over. Finding sucker lines is pretty easy

Did you find the over at even odds? I hit it but at -115.

[stammina0721]

Did you find the over at even odds? I hit it but at -115.

Unfortunately not

[American X]

Xavier -10.5 vs. PCU. Over/Under 154.

It gets dusty in Cintas Center during pregame ceremonies +10000

[GoMuskies]

It gets dusty in Cintas Center during pregame ceremonies +10000

i wish real bookies made these kinds of mistakes setting their lines!