KenPom 2018

[bobbiemcgee]

X #26, Offense #14, Defense #38, Big East Conf. #2

https://kenpom.com/

[X Factor]

After last night's win:

Overall: #16

Offense: #7

Defense: #37

[gladdenguy]

I'm gonna wait until sUCks or Wichita St. plays someone with a pulse before seeing them at 10 and 3, respectively. I'm not buying that at all.

[GoMuskies]

Doesn't early season KenPom still use some of last year's data? That would be why Wichita State is so high despite only playing UMKC and Charleston.

[MuskieXU]

Correct, at this point it is still factoring preseason projections (which are based on last year) much more than this years results. Also, Kenpom has said it over values teams with easy schedules like WSU and to a lesser extent UC last year.

[GoMuskies]

Also, Kenpom has said it over values teams with easy schedules like WSU and to a lesser extent UC last year.

When has that been said? Because if it's been said, I don't think it's at all accurate. You can generally peg Vegas lines within a point or two based on KenPom's ratings, and that wouldn't be true if the above statement was true.

[MuskieXU]

He said it in a recent AMA. His exact quote:

“I do get the sense that dominant teams in the top mid-major leagues tend to be overrated a bit. Gonzaga was maybe the third or fourth best team last season and not the best. Wichita was maybe 13-15 and not 8th. Short of penalizing a team for the conference they are in (which seems wrong for some reason), I haven't come up with a good way to handle this.”

As for Vegas lines, kenpom is usually pretty spot on for power matchups, but the do vary more for one sided blowouts. The spread is almost always higher than Kenpoms spread because his system isn’t great at evaluating those games.

[GoMuskies]

The spread on Kentucky/Wichita State in the NCAA Tournament last year was Kentucky -1, and the game played out that way,too. I don't really buy what he's saying here. On Gonzaga, what evidence would he present that they weren't the best (or second best) team in the country last year? They lost one game before the championship game and were tied in the final minute of that.

[X Factor]

As of 12-3-17:

Overall: #17

Offense: #4

Defense: #51


That ASU game killed our defensive ranking.

[bleedXblue]

UC win doesn't look all that great right now, but it will b4 the end of the year as they blaze through that weak ass, top heavy conference.

[GoMuskies]

The AAC is actually looking pretty decent. They're in 7th according to Sagarin just behind the Pac-12 right now. UC should be able to maintain lofty computer rankings by winning in that league. As it is, they're still ahead of Xavier despite our win yesterday.

[xu82]

The AAC is actually looking pretty decent. They're in 7th according to Sagarin just behind the Pac-12 right now. UC should be able to maintain lofty computer rankings by winning in that league. As it is, they're still ahead of Xavier despite our win yesterday.

I can live with that (as silly as it seems). I’m not a hater, I hope they win out because I love X more than I hate anyone else. What is good for X is GOOD.

[X-band '01]

The AAC is actually looking pretty decent. They're in 7th according to Sagarin just behind the Pac-12 right now. UC should be able to maintain lofty computer rankings by winning in that league. As it is, they're still ahead of Xavier despite our win yesterday.

If Temple keeps losing to A-10 teams, they can't even pass a down Pac-12. They've laid eggs at La Salle and GW this year.

[X Factor]

As of tonight after Kent St.

Overall: 13

Offense: 3

Defense: 56

Xavier at this point is an elite offensive team, but not so great on the defensive end.

Xavier has the worst ranked defense of any team in the Top 30, although Duke is not much better at #53 on defense.

If Xavier can improve their defense, they will really, really tough to beat.

[Juice]

If Temple keeps losing to A-10 teams, they can't even pass a down Pac-12. They've laid eggs at La Salle and GW this year.

They beat Wisconsin tonight.

[GoMuskies]

They beat Wisconsin tonight.

Wisconsin is hot garbage.

Dayton is ALMOST in the KenPom top 100. Almost.

[bobbiemcgee]

Dayton is ALMOST in the KenPom top 100. Almost.

Dayton fans can come and see their de-committed PG McKinley Wright @ Cintas this Saturday.

[XMuskieFTW]

As of tonight after Kent St.

Overall: 13

Offense: 3

Defense: 56

Xavier at this point is an elite offensive team, but not so great on the defensive end.

Xavier has the worst ranked defense of any team in the Top 30, although Duke is not much better at #53 on defense.

If Xavier can improve their defense, they will really, really tough to beat.

Also half of our kenpom rankings are still based on preseason rankings. So that 56 defensively is a mix of the 38 preseason ranking and probably an actual closer to 70.

[markchal]

that Wisconsin road win is looking worse and worse. Their collapse is gonna cost us a nice resume chip.

[mistabeecee41]

that Wisconsin road win is looking worse and worse. Their collapse is gonna cost us a nice resume chip.

calling it a collapse would insinuate that they were a strong team at one point. i think it's been a down year for them all along.

[Juice]

that Wisconsin road win is looking worse and worse. Their collapse is gonna cost us a nice resume chip.

We had zero non-conference road wins last year. I'm still viewing it as a plus simply because we have one this season.

[GoMuskies]

calling it a collapse would insinuate that they were a strong team at one point. i think it's been a down year for them all along.

We were actually underdogs at Wisconsin. They weren't supposed to be this bad.

[xu82]

We were actually underdogs at Wisconsin. They weren't supposed to be this bad.

Hopefully they figure it out so that road win looks better.

[Lloyd Braun]

Coach Mack laid out the blueprint for Wisconsin now everyone benefits!

[XUFan09]

that Wisconsin road win is looking worse and worse. Their collapse is gonna cost us a nice resume chip.It definitely has lost some luster. However, as long as they remain in the top 100, it still looks good, because it was on the road.

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[drudy23]

Wiscy is middle of the road Big Ten at best. That was pretty obvious when we played them.

[MuskieXU]

I think Xavier’s defense is significantly better than 56, but we haven’t been in many close games to need to play 40 minutes of great D. Kent State scored 40 through 30 minutes, but put up 30 in the last 10 once we let up. UC had 47 through 30 minutes and had 29 in the last 10. You get the idea. I think end of year this is a Top 25 defense but maybe I’m way off base.

[XMuskieFTW]

All we need is Wisconsin to finish top 70 in the rpi under the new way they are grouping RPI wins.

[GIMMFD]

I think Xavier’s defense is significantly better than 56, but we haven’t been in many close games to need to play 40 minutes of great D. Kent State scored 40 through 30 minutes, but put up 30 in the last 10 once we let up. UC had 47 through 30 minutes and had 29 in the last 10. You get the idea. I think end of year this is a Top 25 defense but maybe I’m way off base.

Yeah definitely a lot of garbage time comebacks, I think our defense is pretty well improved over the past few years, we also have bigger athletic guys like Gates, who are playing tremendous currently. We don't have a true rim protector, but our bigs manage to do well enough when called upon.

[Masterofreality]

The AAC is actually looking pretty decent. They're in 7th according to Sagarin just behind the Pac-12 right now. UC should be able to maintain lofty computer rankings by winning in that league. As it is, they're still ahead of Xavier despite our win yesterday.

The AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAC IS 8th in RPI, behind the ubiquitous Missouri Valley. The A10 is a horrific 10th. That league is really horrible this year. VD people must be mumbling in their caves about being left behind from life.

Let's don't give the Valley any more prop up vs UNI.

[Masterofreality]

calling it a collapse would insinuate that they were a strong team at one point. i think it's been a down year for them all along.

And the B1G is hot garbage...other than Michigan State.

[waggy]

Didn't think it was worth a new thread, but maybe it is... RPI Forecast is currently projecting X to finish 3rd in RPI (and Nova to finish 1st). In years not so distant past this would put both on the #1 seed line. Where does RPI stand with the committee now? Will the NCAA website have RPI ratings like it has in the past? It's very early obviously but interesting to think about.

[WCWIII]

Didn't think it was worth a new thread, but maybe it is... RPI Forecast is currently projecting X to finish 3rd in RPI (and Nova to finish 1st). In years not so distant past this would put both on the #1 seed line. Where does RPI stand with the committee now? Will the NCAA website have RPI ratings like it has in the past? It's very early obviously but interesting to think about.

There are some changes this year. The Committee's use of RPI will include the effects of home and away games. I think the top tier games will be against the top 30 teams if the game is played at home and top 70 if the game is played away.

What the RPI and RPI forecast show to me is the great job in scheduling again this year. Not only are we having a great W-L in the out of conference, but those wins are against opponents who are doing well and should do well in their respective conferences.

Us making the tournament last year ... thank Mario and the scheduling. The fact we get in with six losses in a row and 12 total in the regular season ... that's the importance of scheduling. The fact that we were a 2 seed two years ago and that we might be right there again (or even a 1 seed) ... that's the team taking care of business against a carefully crafted schedule.

[waggy]

Can't imagine the BE would get 2 teams as #1's. Have to win the conference. What Nova has been doing and continues to do is really fantastic.

[UCGRAD4X]

Can't imagine the BE would get 2 teams as #1's. Have to win the conference. What Nova has been doing and continues to do is really fantastic.

Dominate conference play, at least split with Nova, and win conf tourney - probably but not necessarily against Nova. However that would probably knock Nova out of a #1, especially if they don't even make it to conf final. Flip that for Xavier and the same scenario would apply. Highly unlikely both #1 - but it also depends on what other top teams do, or don't do.

Lots of basketball to play and scenarios to play out, many of which are out of X's control. Really putting the cart before the horse here. But, hey (or hay) that's what we do!.

[drudy23]

Talk of a #1 seed at this point is pointless. Big East play will be a bear this year.

[GoMuskies]

Dominate conference play, at least split with Nova, and win conf tourney - probably but not necessarily against Nova. However that would probably knock Nova out of a #1, especially if they don't even make it to conf final. Flip that for Xavier and the same scenario would apply. Highly unlikely both #1 - but it also depends on what other top teams do, or don't do.

You also need a few Wichita State losses, because if a team from the AAC takes one of the #1 seeds, it obviously eliminates a #1 seed available to the power conferences. Big XII, Pac-12, SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big East are all fighting over 3 #1 seeds at that point, and Dook and Michigan State have almost preemptively been handed #1 seeds this year.

[UCGRAD4X]

You also need a few Wichita State losses, because if a team from the AAC takes one of the #1 seeds, it obviously eliminates a #1 seed available to the power conferences. Big XII, Pac-12, SEC, ACC, Big Ten and Big East are all fighting over 3 #1 seeds at that point, and Dook and Michigan State have almost preemptively been handed #1 seeds this year.

Absolutely agree.

Thus the comment: "...it also depends on what other top teams do..."