Bracketology 2018

[GetUp5]

F*** Wisconsin.

[X-band '01]

I saw on Reddit that X has been the higher seed 20 times, and is 15 - 5 in those games. The 5 losses weren't specifically mentioned, but I think off the top of my head it would be these 5:

1990 - S16 vs Texas
1998 - 1st Rd vs Washington
2003 - 2nd Rd vs Maryland
2011 - 1st Rd vs Marquette
2016 - 2nd Rd vs Wisconsin

And the 15 wins:

2016 - 1st Rd vs. Weber State (15)
2015 - 2nd Rd vs. Ole Miss (11)
2015 - 3rd Rd vs. Georgia State (14)
2012 - 3rd Rd vs. Lehigh (15)
2010 - 1st Rd vs. Minnesota (11)
2009 - 1st Rd vs. Portland State (13)
2009 - 2nd Rd vs. Wisconsin (5)
2008 - 1st Rd vs. Georgia (14)
2008 - 2nd Rd vs. Purdue (6)
2008 - Sweet 16 vs. West Virginia (7)
2004 - 1st Rd vs. Louisville (10)
2003 - 1st Rd vs. Troy State (14)
2002 - 1st Rd vs. Hawaii (10)
1997 - 1st Rd vs. Vanderbilt (10)
1990 - 1st Rd vs. Kansas State (11)

[SemajParlor]

Michael Porter Jr might be returning for Missouri this year. Something to keep in mind as they currently are projected as a 9 seed.

[stammina0721]

I'm all for the rivalry but I just choose to cheer for any team from this city that may win a championship ( except anyone from Elder screw those guys). Sports teams here have handed out too many shots to the nuts in recent years for me to not take advantage of a possible winner

Blame Jeremy Hill and Scott Rolen for giving me this mind set

[X-band '01]

Michael Porter Jr might be returning for Missouri this year. Something to keep in mind as they currently are projected as a 9 seed.

Is he practicing with Mizzou now?

They're being judged by bracketologists as the team they currently are. Maybe not a first-ballot team, but it would take a collapse for them to miss the field at this point.

[paulxu]

I was there for both.

Perhaps you should watch these games from somewhere other than the arena in which they are being played.

Do they have bars in Wichita?

Edit: Hah! Just saw this is my 13,000 post. I need to get a job at Lowe's.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Ugh tat Marquette game was BRUTAL. Was there for that one. Only positive things was Tu getting owned by Jimmy Butler brought Tu back for senior year. There was a lot of chatter that year about him potentially leaving early. Who knew Jimmy Butler would turn into a max NBA player. He was only ever an honorable mention BE player in college.

I remember being in 6th grade watching that Washington game. Our teacher was an X fan and let us watch, at least part including the end. That was brutal, especially back then when UC was usually better and 90% of kids were UC fans.

[HenryMuto]

I saw on Reddit that X has been the higher seed 20 times, and is 15 - 5 in those games. The 5 losses weren't specifically mentioned, but I think off the top of my head it would be these 5:

1990 - S16 vs Texas
1998 - 1st Rd vs Washington
2003 - 2nd Rd vs Maryland
2011 - 1st Rd vs Marquette
2016 - 2nd Rd vs Wisconsin

2003 team was a #3 seed I thought had a chance to go far losing to #6 Maryland.

[mid major]

2003 team was a #3 seed I thought had a chance to go far losing to #6 Maryland.

MD way underseeded in this game. If I remember correctly, they needed a crazy 3 pt shot to win their 6/11 game.

[D-West & PO-Z]

MD way underseeded in this game. If I remember correctly, they needed a crazy 3 pt shot to win their 6/11 game.

Yeah Drew Nichols vs UNC Wilmington hit a three down 1 to win.

Maryland was the defending national champions as well.

[HenryMuto]

I am surprised how many people still have X as a 2 seed as of right now. ESPN did a Game Day show mock top 16 teams bracket and gave #1 to Purdue and Kansas both over X while even saying Michigan State is ahead of X (according to 1 person).

I seen other sites who I watch do brackets have Kansas over X as well which surprises me they do have 3 losses at the Fog and 4 total "home" losses if you count the one in state vs Washington. They also lost to non NCAA team at home in Oklahoma State.

If X wins today I think they will show up as a #1 seed tomorrow possibly even #3 overall pending other outcomes.

Hopefully Baylor upsets Kansas and Michigan State beats Purdue that should seal it if X beats Creighton.

Now if X loses to Creighton and Kansas and Purdue win who the hell knows. Probably knocks X to a #2 seed.

[bleedXblue]

I am surprised how many people still have X as a 2 seed as of right now. ESPN did a Game Day show mock top 16 teams bracket and gave #1 to Purdue and Kansas both over X while even saying Michigan State is ahead of X (according to 1 person).

I seen other sites who I watch do brackets have Kansas over X as well which surprises me they do have 3 losses at the Fog and 4 total "home" losses if you count the one in state vs Washington. They also lost to non NCAA team at home in Oklahoma State.

If X wins today I think they will show up as a #1 seed tomorrow possibly even #3 overall pending other outcomes.

Hopefully Baylor upsets Kansas and Michigan State beats Purdue that should seal it if X beats Creighton.

Now if X loses to Creighton and Kansas and Purdue win who the hell knows. Probably knocks X to a #2 seed.

So many games left why worry about it now?

[HenryMuto]

So many games left why worry about it now?

Would be nice to see X on the 1 line tomorrow for all the nation to see.

[GoMuskies]

Kansas over Xavier right now makes no sense. We'll reasses in a few hours.

[xu82]

Would be nice to see X on the 1 line tomorrow for all the nation to see.

Can I agree with both of you? Because I do......

Looooong way to go, but it would be nice.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I am surprised how many people still have X as a 2 seed as of right now. ESPN did a Game Day show mock top 16 teams bracket and gave #1 to Purdue and Kansas both over X while even saying Michigan State is ahead of X (according to 1 person).

I seen other sites who I watch do brackets have Kansas over X as well which surprises me they do have 3 losses at the Fog and 4 total "home" losses if you count the one in state vs Washington. They also lost to non NCAA team at home in Oklahoma State.

If X wins today I think they will show up as a #1 seed tomorrow possibly even #3 overall pending other outcomes.

Hopefully Baylor upsets Kansas and Michigan State beats Purdue that should seal it if X beats Creighton.

Now if X loses to Creighton and Kansas and Purdue win who the hell knows. Probably knocks X to a #2 seed.

Well to be fair it looks like they were taking turns when picking and Seth Greenberg had last 1 seed to pick and her picked Kansas. Both Rece Davis and Jay Williams said they had XU as a 1 seed, Bilas I think had MSU as 4th 1 seed but did say the other night XU's ceiling was a National Championship.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Would be nice to see X on the 1 line tomorrow for all the nation to see.

We win tonight and thats a no doubter.

[stammina0721]

I am surprised how many people still have X as a 2 seed as of right now. ESPN did a Game Day show mock top 16 teams bracket and gave #1 to Purdue and Kansas both over X while even saying Michigan State is ahead of X (according to 1 person).

I seen other sites who I watch do brackets have Kansas over X as well which surprises me they do have 3 losses at the Fog and 4 total "home" losses if you count the one in state vs Washington. They also lost to non NCAA team at home in Oklahoma State.

If X wins today I think they will show up as a #1 seed tomorrow possibly even #3 overall pending other outcomes.

Hopefully Baylor upsets Kansas and Michigan State beats Purdue that should seal it if X beats Creighton.

Now if X loses to Creighton and Kansas and Purdue win who the hell knows. Probably knocks X to a #2 seed.

Who cares??? The talking heads are paid to put certain teams on TV more so they are going to talk them up. I promise you if the Big East was on ESPN they would have X as a one

[GoMuskies]

Kansas over Xavier right now makes no sense. We'll reasses in a few hours.

Reassessment time: I think we're pretty safely clear of Kansas.

[GIMMFD]

Reassessment time: I think we're pretty safely clear of Kansas.

Considering the Baylor team they lost to, we blasted at home???

[kmcrawfo]

Considering the Baylor team they lost to, we blasted at home???

Right now, I think we are the number 2 overall on the S-Curve...

UVA doesn't have a gimme tonight either....

[SkyWalker]

Right now, I think we are the number 2 overall on the S-Curve...

UVA doesn't have a gimme tonight either....

I'm guessing 3 or 4. I don't think we pass Nova until we beat them. A Purdue win over Michigan State will make it tight for #3.

[X-band '01]

Considering the Baylor team they lost to, we blasted at home???

I am surprised - this is the kind of game Kansas usually wins on the road and loses at home this year.

[HenryMuto]

Right now, I think we are the number 2 overall on the S-Curve...

UVA doesn't have a gimme tonight either....

Actually Virginia plays vs Virginia Tech so likely a blowout win. Not passing up Nova.

#3 is best case and likely #4 if Purdue wins at Michigan State.

[GoMuskies]

Seems to me #4 either way. Michigan State or Purdue is likely to be ahead of us depending on the outcome.

[HenryMuto]

Seems to me #4 either way. Michigan State or Purdue is likely to be ahead of us depending on the outcome.

At best Michigan State would be #4 overall and I don't even feel they deserve that except everyone else is losing.

They only would have 2 big wins compare X quad 1 wins vs MSU quad 1 wins, quad 2 wins, ect not to mention RPI overall.

X RPI 2
MSU RPI right now is 17

X has 7-3 record vs quad 1 and 7-0 vs quad 2 =14 quality wins

MSU with a win today would be 3-2 vs quad 1 and 3-1 vs quad 2 = no where close to X would be criminal for them to be above X

[bleedXblue]

Mich State loses we will be #3. To rank it another other way is criminal and gross negligence.

[bleedXblue]

Mich State loses we will be #3. To rank it another other way is criminal and gross negligence.

Add to this that both teams RPI are not even in the top 10........Mich State is 21 for Gods sake.

Stop ranking based on the "name" of the program...but on the actual resume and SOS.

[HenryMuto]

Oh my god I was like no bad shot.....never mind..............

2.6 seconds away from sole possession of 1st place for Ohio State and X being #3 overall on S-Curve despite being behind MSU in rankings.

[bleedXblue]

Oh my god I was like no bad shot.....never mind..............

2.6 seconds away from sole possession of 1st place for Ohio State and X being #3 overall on S-Curve despite being behind MSU in rankings.

What?

[OTRMUSKIE]

Virginia and uc wins it will be. Nova lost to a team that was winless in the beast and at home.

Virginia
Mich st
Xavier
UC
Nova

[GoMuskies]

There is no chance UC is top 4.

[bleedXblue]

Virginia and uc wins it will be. Nova lost to a team that was winless in the beast and at home.

Virginia
Mich st
Xavier
UC
Nova

yep

[bleedXblue]

There is no chance UC is top 4.

well they did beat Buffalo......

[bleedXblue]

yep

UC does not hop Nova......No way

[GoMuskies]

If we're talking AP poll and not S curve, I'm pretty certain we're not passing Nova. I'm still certain UC is not passing them.

[Xuperman]

Virginia and uc wins it will be. Nova lost to a team that was winless in the beast and at home.

Virginia
Mich st
Xavier
UC
Nova

Man, thanks for the belly laugh!

[Xuperman]

Are we allowed to root for Buzz Williams?

[bleedXblue]

Are we allowed to root for Buzz Williams?

without question

[OTRMUSKIE]

Laugh all u want but nova didn’t lose to DUKE at the buzzer they lost to 0-11 St John’s at home. If UC wins they will go to 4.
I will say that it won’t matter bc UC isn’t beating SMU. UC is very very very overrated. I keep saying that and they keep winning. I HATE UC

[HenryMuto]

What the hell Providence ????????????????

You making X look bad. X loses at Providence but DePaul wins by 17 there ?

WTF

[HenryMuto]

Assuming Virginia wins tonight the top 3 are locks in my mind in this order.

#1 Virginia
#2 Villanova
#3 Xavier

#4 and last #1 seed is now really up in the air big time. Kansas blew their shot at it then Purdue blew their shot at it.....Auburn blew their shot at it on Wednesday so who the hell does that leave ? No not Cincinnati that be a FN joke. They shouldn't even be a 3 seed based on resume but they will be.

Michigan State really #1 seed ? Resume screams #3 seed before today's win so I give them a #2 seed.

Who the hell gets the 4th #1 seed ?

[X-band '01]

well they did beat Buffalo......

Throw that out the window. Northern Illinois beat Buffalo.

[HenryMuto]

Throw that out the window. Northern Illinois beat Buffalo.

So did Kent State.

[X-band '01]

By MAC standards, NIU is far more embarrassing.

[Xuperman]

Are we allowed to root for Buzz Williams?

It feels weird but I'm doing it!!

[bjf123]

VT gave away a win there. Headed to OT.


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[HenryMuto]

Stupid Tech blows it and it goes to OT

[bjf123]

49 all at the end of regulation? That’s sad.


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[Xuperman]

Are we allowed to root for Buzz Williams?

Nope, he had 2 fouls to give and DIDN'T USE THEM!!!! Now I feel dirty.

[HenryMuto]

No idea if Virginia or Nova is #1 but I am guessing they are 1/2 and then X is 3 and I have no clue who should be #4 at the moment.

[kmcrawfo]

No idea if Virginia or Nova is #1 but I am guessing they are 1/2 and then X is 3 and I have no clue who should be #4 at the moment.

How about we just make Xavier the overall #1 seed.

It is in their hands to get the overall #1 seed, seriously. Win the rest of their regular season games and X will be the overall #1 seed in the tourney!

[bleedXblue]

No idea if Virginia or Nova is #1 but I am guessing they are 1/2 and then X is 3 and I have no clue who should be #4 at the moment.

WTF are you talking about? Nova lost to SJU at home? They are not ahead of X. If they are the voters are even more stupid than I think

[HenryMuto]

WTF are you talking about? Nova lost to SJU at home? They are not ahead of X. If they are the voters are even more stupid than I think

This is bracketology not rankings. Resumes are more important then if you win or lose after a game and where you stand in the rankings that week.

Actually rankings don't matter at all.

X will not be ahead of Nova when they show the top 16 teams tomorrow for the selection show.

[D-West & PO-Z]

WTF are you talking about? Nova lost to SJU at home? They are not ahead of X. If they are the voters are even more stupid than I think

He is talking S curve. But either way Nova is going to be ahead of us. I really dont think we pass Nova in the polls. They have one less loss than us and crushed us and were number 1.

As far as the polls I think it will be:

1. MSU
2. Nova
3. UVA
4. X

As far as the S curve? Not positive but I'm thinking X is the #3 1 seed.

[GoMuskies]

I love Xavier as the third #1 seed, because that probably means Omaha!

[xu82]

I love Xavier as the third #1 seed, because that probably means Omaha!

I’m praying for Nashville. I have a place you can stay....if you promise not to behave. I think we can count on you.

[GoMuskies]

I’m praying for Nashville. I have a place you can stay....if you promise not to behave. I think we can count on you.

We can do Nashville AND Omaha. Doesn't have to be either/or.

[paulxu]

I thought the Nashville games fed the South and West regions.
Which means X couldn't go to Nashville, and then on to Omaha (midwest).

[AviatorX]

I thought the Nashville games fed the South and West regions.
Which means X couldn't go to Nashville, and then on to Omaha (midwest).

They changed this a little while back, basically the first and second round pod locations can be in any combination/region.

[paulxu]

They changed this a little while back, basically the first and second round pod locations can be in any combination/region.

So they aren't decided where the winners go until after the first weekend?

Guess when I look at this it seems like South (Atlanta) and West (LA) for the Nashville winners.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

(it's also possible I don't understand this crap)

[usfldan]

So they aren't decided where the winners go until after the first weekend?

Guess when I look at this it seems like South (Atlanta) and West (LA) for the Nashville winners.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

(it's also possible I don't understand this crap)

The winners know where they will go, but not until the field is announced. Any first/second round site can be in any region. Last year Xavier was in the West Region, but their first two games were in Orlando (decidedly NOT west).

[xu82]

I will once again announce how crazy fantastic it would be for X to win in Nashville and then move on for more wins in Atlanta. I could handle that boost of happiness!

As an alternative, I could settle for that winning Powerball ticket I bought on the way home today to come through....

[muethibp]

It’s barely worth talking about but a potential draw against UK in Nashville is a horrible draw. I don’t care how they’ve been playing, they have lots of talent. And Big Blue Nation would be there in force.

[drudy23]

Agreed on UK...they have the talent to beat anyone. That would be a crappy 2nd round matchup...if they get there.

[GoMuskies]

It’s barely worth talking about but a potential draw against UK in Nashville is a horrible draw. I don’t care how they’ve been playing, they have lots of talent. And Big Blue Nation would be there in force.

I would say that Committee wouldn't do that to us as a protected seed.....but it was just a few years ago that undefeated #1 seed Wichita State had to play Kentucky in St. Louis. So yeah, the Committee actually probably WOULD do that to us.

[bleedXblue]

It’s barely worth talking about but a potential draw against UK in Nashville is a horrible draw. I don’t care how they’ve been playing, they have lots of talent. And Big Blue Nation would be there in force.

I went down to Nashville when we lost to Maryland and that was about as miserable experience as possible. We lost to begin with and we had sit next to and across from all of those Hilljacks........sorry, but most of their fans are intolerable at best.

[SteveSpivery]

It makes no sense XU playing in Nashville. I think the highest seed gets to play closer to home. Based on that and the seeds, #1 X should play in Detroit ahead of # 3 MSU and #1 X should play in Pittsburgh ahead of #2 Cincinnati.

[paulxu]

Cincinnati to Detroit (airports) 229 miles
Cincinnati to Nashville (airports) 230 miles
Cincinnati to Pittsburgh (airports) 256 miles

[X-band '01]

I would say that Committee wouldn't do that to us as a protected seed.....but it was just a few years ago that undefeated #1 seed Wichita State had to play Kentucky in St. Louis. So yeah, the Committee actually probably WOULD do that to us.

Protected seeds are only protected for one round - not 2.

[PeteXU]

Cincinnati to Detroit (airports) 229 miles
Cincinnati to Nashville (airports) 230 miles
Cincinnati to Pittsburgh (airports) 256 miles

Exactly. People are really splitting hairs as to what site is closer. It would be different if one of Louisville/Columbus/Indy were in play, but the difference in distance is negligible. If I had my pick, I'd want X to go to Nashville for the reasons most other people would want warmer, Broadway, music scene, Hattie B's, but I'd have X play in the middle of nowhere if it meant the best possible draw.

[GoMuskies]

I'd have X play in the middle of nowhere if it meant the best possible draw.

So.....Wichita.

[PeteXU]

So.....Wichita.

As long as you've got a couch to crash on I'm down.

[GetUp5]

With Mich State and Purdue looming, it's probably best to steer clear of Detroit, right?

Nashville would be fantastic, as long as UK isn't shipped there in a 7/10 or 8/9 game.

Omaha would be a great 2nd weekend site, imo. Creighton fans scooped up most of the available tickets and are saying on HolyLandofHoops that they'd undoubtedly be pulling for X.

[X-band '01]

No chance Xavier would meet either MSU or Purdue in the 2nd round. All 3 teams would need to tank the rest of the way for that to happen.

As for Detroit, it technically IS closer than Nashville or Pittsburgh, but with Xavier being equidistant to all 3 sites, the argument can be made to ship Xavier to Nashville to keep Sparty closer to Detroit if they win out.

[SteveSpivery]

Cincinnati to Detroit (airports) 229 miles
Cincinnati to Nashville (airports) 230 miles
Cincinnati to Pittsburgh (airports) 256 miles

Oops. I should have looked at a map first. I was going by memory and thought Nashville was about 50 miles farther.

[muethibp]

It’s really not that complicated. The committee is going to treat Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Nashville as one and the same for X and UC. So they’ll slot MSU and Purdue into Detroit and Villanova into Pittsburgh. So there is then one pod left in Pittsburgh and two left in Nashville. If Auburn holds its form, it will get Nashville and X/UC will split Pittsburgh and Nashville. Still think it’s a strong likelihood for Nashville if X’s form holds.

[American X]

Villanova into Pittsburgh. So there is then one pod left in Pittsburgh

Xavier and Villanova uniting to take over Pittsburgh is not the worst idea I have heard today.

[muethibp]

As it seems a decent chance of being slotted in the same site as Nova or UC but not against one another in the same region, it will be fascinating to see how the fans treat the other school. I, for one, will root for both UC and Nova if at the game and those schools are playing before or after. I recognize many others view that as a bridge too far.

[muskiefan82]

As it seems a decent chance of being slotted in the same site as Nova or UC but not against one another in the same region, it will be fascinating to see how the fans treat the other school. I, for one, will root for both UC and Nova if at the game and those schools are playing before or after. I recognize many others view that as a bridge too far.

I will always root for the other Big East teams when they are playing in the tournament. ALWAYS. What is good for the league is good for X. I would even root for Butler in the tournament. Yeah. I said it. UC is a bridge too far for me in the tournament. I rather enjoy their early exits especially when X keeps playing.

[GoMuskies]

I would heartily root against UC if I am in the building. If UC is in Wichita, it will be kind of gross because I would expect the Wichita State fans to cheer for them. I plan to go to the games, and I wouldn't enjoy that.

[GetUp5]

I would heartily root against UC if I am in the building. If UC is in Wichita, it will be kind of gross because I would expect the Wichita State fans to cheer for them. I plan to go to the games, and I wouldn't enjoy that.

I hate UC more than anyone but would feel really weird openly rooting against them, in person, at THEIR tournament game. Why not just watch the game and hope they lose? If I saw a UC fan at a Xavier tournament game, openly rooting against us, I'd definitely think he was a huge loser.

[GoMuskies]

I hate UC more than anyone but would feel really weird openly rooting against them, in person, at THEIR tournament game. Why not just watch the game and hope they lose? If I saw a UC fan at a Xavier tournament game, openly rooting against us, I'd definitely think he was a huge loser.

I'm probably not going to be wearing Xavier gear at the game, and I'm not expecting to be jumping up and down (depending on who they're playing), but I'm not going to skip their game, and I'm not going to cheer FOR them.

[BandAid]

Ya, I never consider myself to be cheering against someone. I’m just cheering for the other team.

Edit: except when it’s uc vs. dayton. Then I’m cheering for the second coming of Christ.

[XU 87]

Ya, I never consider myself to be cheering against someone. I’m just cheering for the other team.

Edit: except when it’s uc vs. dayton.

UC v. Dayton is like watching the old Olympics when East Germany would play against USSR.

[GoMuskies]

Ok, is probably skip UC vs. VD if that somehow came to pass here.

[dethwing]

I'm in an unusual situation. I went to Xavier for undergrad, but UC for my second masters. For basketball, all that matters to me is XU. But if UC wins when they're not playing us....eh, that's OK with me.

[muskiefan82]

I'm in an unusual situation. I went to Xavier for undergrad, but UC for my second masters. For basketball, all that matters to me is XU. But if UC wins when they're not playing us....eh, that's OK with me.

I got my undergrad from UC and truthfully, it really wouldn't bother me if UC won EXCEPT for the fact that I really would not be able to deal with YTG and his attitude if they did. UC has a good team, but that dude is just irritating and UC losing keeps him from having anything meaningful to say. I dislike YTG more than I will ever dislike UC.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I got my undergrad from UC and truthfully, it really wouldn't bother me if UC won EXCEPT for the fact that I really would not be able to deal with YTG and his attitude if they did. UC has a good team, but that dude is just irritating and UC losing keeps him from having anything meaningful to say. I dislike YTG more than I will ever dislike UC.

I actually don't dislike any of the current UC players. Last player I hated of theirs was Yancey Gates. But I loathe Cronin so much I hope his tourney struggles continue his entire career.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I have no problem actively rooting against UC. My favorite college bball teams are XU, SLU (Yikes, F U Jim Crews), and whoever is playing UC.

[HenryMuto]

One step closer to #2 overall seed. Win tonight and win vs Nova and will be locked into #2 overall seed at this time.

[Emp]

Lunardi now has us in Detroit with Purdue and Kenucky fan bases. Yea for the location personally, but in that scenario scalping tix would be pricey.

[GoMuskies]

It may not be as bad as you think. Strange as it sounds, Kentucky fans really don't travel that well when going north.

[94GRAD]

It may not be as bad as you think. Strange as it sounds, Kentucky fans really don't travel that well when going north.

Very few of them have an updated passport to cross the Ohio River!

[OTRMUSKIE]

And Kentucky isn’t making the field

[XUFan09]

And Kentucky isn’t making the fieldThey'll make it. The bubble sucks, and they're at least okay as a team.

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[GoMuskies]

They'll make it. The bubble sucks, and they're at least okay as a team.

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They're okay right now, but they're at real risk of losing seven straight. Things could get very tight for them and Louisville (as Louisville's finishing schedule is a murderer's row). NKU, Murray State, WKU and UC could be the only Kentucky schools in the Dance this year.

[XUFan09]

They're okay right now, but they're at real risk of losing seven straight. Things could get very tight for them and Louisville (as Louisville's finishing schedule is a murderer's row). NKU, Murray State, WKU and UC could be the only Kentucky schools in the Dance this year.I agree that could happen, but I find it unlikely. Lol at UC as a Kentucky team. Love it.

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[STL_XUfan]

They're okay right now, but they're at real risk of losing seven straight. Things could get very tight for them and Louisville (as Louisville's finishing schedule is a murderer's row). NKU, Murray State, WKU and UC could be the only Kentucky schools in the Dance this year.
https://i.imgur.com/dhMeAzK.gif

[drudy23]

With Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Nashville all in the mix, which would the committee deem our "preferred" location?

[D-West & PO-Z]

With Detroit, Pittsburgh, and Nashville all in the mix, which would the committee deem our "preferred" location?

We've been discussing this for a while and no one seems to know.

Some have suggested they'll slot the other protected seeds in their slots and see which of the three is left for us. It has been suggested they may ask X which they prefer. Most tend to think Nashville but all is speculation right now.

[HenryMuto]

X would submit where they want to go and if their 1st choice is available that is what they get when their name is called (IE #1 overall, #2 overall, ect). If that is taken they go to their 2nd choice and so forth.

So X decides where they want to go.

[UCGRAD4X]

We've been discussing this for a while and no one seems to know.

Some have suggested they'll slot the other protected seeds in their slots and see which of the three is left for us. It has been suggested they may ask X which they prefer. Most tend to think Nashville but all is speculation right now.


X would submit where they want to go and if their 1st choice is available that is what they get when their name is called (IE #1 overall, #2 overall, ect). If that is taken they go to their 2nd choice and so forth.

So X decides where they want to go.

This is amazing. I never heard of such a thing (not that I have any particular insight to the committee operations and slotting).

If this is true (not that I should doubt anything reported on this board), how long has this been the case? Is this a fairly new development?

[D-West & PO-Z]

X would submit where they want to go and if their 1st choice is available that is what they get when their name is called (IE #1 overall, #2 overall, ect). If that is taken they go to their 2nd choice and so forth.

So X decides where they want to go.

How do you know this? Have you read it somewhere?

[sirthought]

I would pick Pittsburgh.

[GoMuskies]

I would pick Pittsburgh.

Things said by no one ever

[bobbiemcgee]

Lunardi dumps Purdue for Auburn and UC down to a 3 seed.

[GIMMFD]

Lunardi dumps Purdue for Auburn and UC down to a 3 seed.

Makes our one seed chances look a whole helluva lot prettier, great stuff for Wisky to A. Improve our resume, and B. Knock Purdue down a peg.

[xu82]

Makes our one seed chances look a whole helluva lot prettier, great stuff for Wisky to A. Improve our resume, and B. Knock Purdue down a peg.

Amen!

And I’ll add that I’m happy for those crazy guys from Wisconsin who had me laughing at (and occasionally with) them in Orlando last March. Damn, buy a few guys a pitcher of beer, and they take you in like a brother! There had to be 30 of them, but buying beer for one is buying for them all! Hard to believe that was less than a year ago...

[bleedXblue]

Lunardi dumps Purdue for Auburn and UC down to a 3 seed.

I watched that horror show last night. Glad UC finally got exposed for the fraud of a schedule they've played.

[XMuskieFTW]

"The title of No. 1 overall seed will now carry extra perks with it.
Starting this upcoming season, the top overall seed in the tournament will be able to choose the location for its first- and second-round games in the tournament, the Division I men's basketball committee announced on Monday.
Schools with a potential chance at the No. 1 overall seed will have to look over the eight locations prior to the seeding of the tournament and submit a preferred destination to the selection committee."

This began last season. So it sounds like they'll have preferences for most of the top teams and likely try and accommodate those, but only the top seed had it guaranteed.

[Lamont Sanford]

I watched that horror show last night. Glad UC finally got exposed for the fraud of a schedule they've played.

+1. The AAC is a joke and UC's finally been exposed. They are not good.

[STL_XUfan]

+1. The AAC is a joke and UC's finally been exposed. They are not good.

While I agree that the AAC is a joke, I wouldn't say that losing to the number 23 kenpom team on the road exposes UC as a fraud. This however does hurt UC's seeding, not because they lost, but because this is one of the few chances they had to pick up a tier 1 win.

[Lloyd Braun]

While I agree that the AAC is a joke, I wouldn't say that losing to the number 23 kenpom team on the road exposes UC as a fraud. This however does hurt UC's seeding, not because they lost, but because this is one of the few chances they had to pick up a tier 1 win.

Unless of course Kenpom is also a fraud.

[GoMuskies]

Unless of course Kenpom is also a fraud.

He IS racist against Xavier.

[deepX]

I have always liked UC's marketing for their conference:

"The AAC .... the closest we could get to the ACC!"

[GetUp5]

I hate UC as much, if not more, than anyone in here...

That being said, can we stop with the "they're not good" stuff? They're #5 in the country and they're 23-3. They are good.

I dislike their style and i don't think that style will win in the tournament. That makes me happy.

But they are good. They are actually really good. Their defense is elite (Joe Flacco is NOT elite) and it will go down as one of the best in the KenPom era.

It's OK to hate UC and still admit they are really good.

[Michigan Muskie]

I hate UC as much, if not more, than anyone in here...

That being said, can we stop with the "they're not good" stuff? They're #5 in the country and they're 23-3. They are good.

I dislike their style and i don't think that style will win in the tournament. That makes me happy.

But they are good. They are actually really good. Their defense is elite (Joe Flacco is NOT elite) and it will go down as one of the best in the KenPom era.

It's OK to hate UC and still admit they are really good.

Perhaps. Or does their defense appear to be elite on paper because they have defended against such mediocre talent? For example, what happens when they defend a team with a better-than-mediocre offense? As I recall, X put up 89 on 'em.

[bleedXblue]

While I agree that the AAC is a joke, I wouldn't say that losing to the number 23 kenpom team on the road exposes UC as a fraud. This however does hurt UC's seeding, not because they lost, but because this is one of the few chances they had to pick up a tier 1 win.

Did you watch the game? Just curious. I was not impressed with either team.

Agree on the Kenpom/RPI scale.....not a bad loss.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

They definitely play defense, but out of conference they didn’t look that spectacular. They lined up 3 decent OOC games and went 1-2. That UCLA win doesn’t look great anymore like ours at Wisconsin.
They are good, what will they do against an offensive team in the tourney.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[X-band '01]

UCLA at least has a chance to go dancing, unlike Wisconsin. Mississippi State is also a decent win (not great) for them as well.

[Masterofreality]

I hate UC as much, if not more, than anyone in here...

That being said, can we stop with the "they're not good" stuff? They're #5 in the country and they're 23-3. They are good.

I dislike their style and i don't think that style will win in the tournament. That makes me happy.

But they are good. They are actually really good. Their defense is elite (Joe Flacco is NOT elite) and it will go down as one of the best in the KenPom era.

It's OK to hate UC and still admit they are really good.

THEY WENT 12 FREAKING MINUTES DOWN THE STRETCH WITHOUT A FIELD GOAL. THAT IS NOT GOOD. Also, "Problem" Gary Clark missed two big free throws down the stretch. SucKS is 263rd in Free Throw shooting percentage in Division 1. They have played a ridiculously easy schedule.
They have a gaudy record, but they are not "really good". The metrics with them are frauds.

[SemajParlor]

I hate UC as much, if not more, than anyone in here...

That being said, can we stop with the "they're not good" stuff? They're #5 in the country and they're 23-3. They are good.

I dislike their style and i don't think that style will win in the tournament. That makes me happy.

But they are good. They are actually really good. Their defense is elite (Joe Flacco is NOT elite) and it will go down as one of the best in the KenPom era.

It's OK to hate UC and still admit they are really good.

I agree with all of this here. The UC sucks crowd is kind of annoying.

[GoMuskies]

I agree with all of this here. The UC sucks crowd is kind of annoying.

Agree. The AAC is not the Big East. It is also not a bad league.

They're also not going to win it!

[GetUp5]

Perhaps. Or does their defense appear to be elite on paper because they have defended against such mediocre talent? For example, what happens when they defend a team with a better-than-mediocre offense? As I recall, X put up 89 on 'em.

KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency ratings account for SOS and UC is on pace to be a top 5 defense in the KenPom era (going back to 2002).

Xavier is the best offense (#5) they've played this season. UCLA (#26), Houston x 2 (#46), Florida (#49) are other notable offenses. They'll end up playing 13 games against teams with a top 100 adjOE #. Wichita St is #11 in adjOE and they have those 2 games coming up. Will be interesting to see how those play out.

Any other KenPom nerds out there -- look at how X compares to Wichita State. It's interesting - X has been like a Wichita St on steroids this season but they're pretty similar.

[XUFan09]

KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency ratings account for SOS and UC is on pace to be a top 5 defense in the KenPom era (going back to 2002).

Xavier is the best offense (#5) they've played this season. UCLA (#26), Houston x 2 (#46), Florida (#49) are other notable offenses. They'll end up playing 13 games against teams with a top 100 adjOE #. Wichita St is #11 in adjOE and they have those 2 games coming up. Will be interesting to see how those play out.

Any other KenPom nerds out there -- look at how X compares to Wichita State. It's interesting - X has been like a Wichita St on steroids this season but they're pretty similar.

After those notable offenses you listed, they have a collection of opponents with offense ranked in the 50s.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[Michigan Muskie]

KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency ratings account for SOS and UC is on pace to be a top 5 defense in the KenPom era (going back to 2002).

Xavier is the best offense (#5) they've played this season. UCLA (#26), Houston x 2 (#46), Florida (#49) are other notable offenses. They'll end up playing 13 games against teams with a top 100 adjOE #. Wichita St is #11 in adjOE and they have those 2 games coming up. Will be interesting to see how those play out.

Any other KenPom nerds out there -- look at how X compares to Wichita State. It's interesting - X has been like a Wichita St on steroids this season but they're pretty similar.

I appreciate the explanation. I'll admit I haven't fully studied the KenPom system to understand how the adjusted metrics are formulated. SOS is apparently factored in, but how is SOS calculated? Is it the same as the RPI SOS? Does it give weight to W/L or is it based more on this proprietary KenPom offensive efficiency (or both?) I see that UC is currently ranked #150 in the category of "Opponents' offensive efficiency" which is considerably worse than any other team in the top 25 outside of the WCC. (In fact, the next closest is in their own conference: #23 Houston at #120. Every other team is under 85.)

So I guess my question is: is UC's defensive efficiency rating so high because they play good defense? Or is it that high because they have played teams that collectively rank #150 in offensive efficiency?

I'm not attempting to take a stand as a UC hater. There are other teams I hate more. I'm asking because when I watch them play, I don't necessarily observe anything remarkable on defense. What I see is other teams missing a lot of easy shots.

[paulxu]

I'm not attempting to take a stand as a UC hater. There are other teams I hate more.

I'm trying to imagine this. And I couldn't.

[GIMMFD]

Amen!

And I’ll add that I’m happy for those crazy guys from Wisconsin who had me laughing at (and occasionally with) them in Orlando last March. Damn, buy a few guys a pitcher of beer, and they take you in like a brother! There had to be 30 of them, but buying beer for one is buying for them all! Hard to believe that was less than a year ago...

Strangely when the Cayman Classic was going on here, I was at a bar after the Iowa game and they had some incredibly nice fans, the assistant AD and this guy saw me and my buddy were just going over some notes while having a beer to relax, they talked to us, I told them how I was an X alum, and my buddy was a Michigan State alum, and we had a detailed conversation, and they bought us 2 rounds of beers. Those Big 10 guys aren't too bad, except for a couple schools I won't mention ;)

[Lloyd Braun]

I’m in the “UC is a fraud” camp... defensive efficiency is computed mostly on points per possession against the other teams offensive efficiency. How does a team maximize points per possession on defense? Well, for one they slow the game down to create a tempo so slow that almost all possessions are half court. UC’s tempo is around 300th. Common sense says half court possessions are more difficult to score. This is necessary for UC and their angry troll coach to do because he does not know how to coach offense. You could potentially lump Virginia into the same category, however Virginia executes their defense so seamlessly against some of the best offenses in CBB. UC does not and this may be exposed against Wichita and any good competitive team. I applaud Mick for going this route and realizing his and his teams limitations. It will maximize their potential and maybe get them out of the first weekend of the tournament.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

That Wichita game is going to be fun to watch. Hopefully it’s on tv.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[THRILLHOUSE]

That Wichita game is going to be fun to watch. Hopefully it’s on tv.




ESPN at 4 PM EST on Sunday.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Gonna be fun for X fans because sUCks is about to lose game #4. Shockers might actually be the best team they have played since X and we all know how that ended for the kitty’s

[Emp]

In this of all Xavier seasons ever played, why the continuing obsession with UC. Threads hijacked to piss on UC.

We beat them, we're better than them, we're top in the BE and about to play a big game we can win. I get we hate em, but if under the glorious circumstances we find ourselves in, you really need to vent about hoe good UC is or isn't, well...........I just don't get it.

[bobbiemcgee]

scha·den·freu·de
ˈSHädənˌfroidə/
noun
noun: Schadenfreude; noun: schadenfreude
pleasure derived by someone from another person's misfortune.

[_LH]

In this of all Xavier seasons ever played, why the continuing obsession with UC. Threads hijacked to piss on UC.

We beat them, we're better than them, we're top in the BE and about to play a big game we can win. I get we hate em, but if under the glorious circumstances we find ourselves in, you really need to vent about hoe good UC is or isn't, well...........I just don't get it.

It’s called multitasking. UC is overrated. XU is not. UC has beaten no one of consequence. XU has.

Crazy stuff happens in March. UC could make a deep run in part due to an inflated seed by virtue of dominating a crappy league. They will beat WSU at home, lose to them on the road and lose on their conference tournament. God willing they are knocked out in their first NCAA game and Mick takes the Louisville job.

[GIMMFD]

scha·den·freu·de
ˈSHädənˌfroidə/
noun
noun: Schadenfreude; noun: schadenfreude
pleasure derived by someone from another person's misfortune.

Hmm good point, *goes and checks in on our forgotten friend Dayton.. 11-14!?!?!* HAHAHAH, you're right, I did find pleasure in that.

[bobbiemcgee]

X playing one of it's biggest games ever to try and win the BE.
UD hosting Fordham and praying not to be embarrassed again. Schadenfreude!

[waggy]

and Mick takes the Louisville job.


Oh man, thanks for the laugh..

[_LH]

Oh man, thanks for the laugh..

A man can dream, can’t he?

[dethwing]

https://youtu.be/nCQGQ5qBQTA

The Schadenfreude song.

[GoMuskies]

I noticed that Lunardi still has the Big East hanging tough with 6 bids, including no one in the play-in games. So 6 solid bids. That's good to see despite the fact that the middle of the Big East pack has been getting dinged pretty regularly by the no-hopers in the back of the pack.

[chico]

We're also still regarded as a 1 seed by Lunardi and bracket matrix still has us there.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

[GoMuskies]

Yeah, the Big East is an interesting case on Bracket Matrix. Two locks on the #1 line (for now), 3 teams in 8/9 games and 1 #10 seed. Also, Marquette not too far out of the running (I think in their first four out).

[GetUp5]

How about the 12/13 line this year?

Middle Tennessee (46 in KenPom), New Mexico State (53), Loyola (50), Lafayette (55), Vermont (67), ETSU (77) all hanging around there on Bracket Matrix...

Good luck, 4/5 seeds.

[JTG]

Yeah, the Big East is an interesting case on Bracket Matrix. Two locks on the #1 line (for now), 3 teams in 8/9 games and 1 #10 seed. Also, Marquette not too far out of the running (I think in their first four out).

How can you have 2 #1s and 3 8/9 seeds? That doesn't work with them all being from the same conference.

[dethwing]

I assume that's their "True Seed", where they would be if conference affiliation were not an issue. They'll get bumped up or down to the 7/10 match to prevent conference matches before the elite 8.

[nuts4xu]

They will beat WSU at home...

No they will not, this has been covered.


They will beat WSU at home, lose to them on the road and lose on their conference tournament. God willing they are knocked out in their first NCAA game and Mick takes the Louisville job.

0-1 so far. You should stick to your day job and get out of the prediction business.

[_LH]

Hopefully the remainder of my predictions all come true. Glad UC lost at home. Keep being a jack@ss nuts.

[X-band '01]

How about the 12/13 line this year?

Middle Tennessee (46 in KenPom), New Mexico State (53), Loyola (50), Lafayette (55), Vermont (67), ETSU (77) all hanging around there on Bracket Matrix...

Good luck, 4/5 seeds.

Going to assume you meant Louisiana (formerly UL-Lafayette) at 55.

Middle Tennessee is the only team among that bunch that has any shot of an at-large if they slip up early in their conference tournament. New Mexico State took themselves out of the running with back-to-back losses in the WAC.

[GetUp5]

Going to assume you meant Louisiana (formerly UL-Lafayette) at 55.

Middle Tennessee is the only team among that bunch that has any shot of an at-large if they slip up early in their conference tournament. New Mexico State took themselves out of the running with back-to-back losses in the WAC.

Louisiana-Lafyette, yes, not the 6th place Lafayette in the Patriot League.

At large bids or not, the 12/13 line is one of the strongest in recent memory.

[mid major]

Oklahoma is a 6th seed with a 16-11 record (6-9 conference). Wow, it looks like ESPN wants to make sure they remain relevant.

[chico]

It seems nobody knows where to put Oklahoma. They range from a 4 seed (this guy must only update his site every other month) and a 10 seed. They're on the 6 line right now according to the bracket matrix.

[Masterofreality]

I agree with all of this here. The UC sucks crowd is kind of annoying.

Welp. Since they lost two games- one at “home” to actually respectable teams last week, want to revise?
Anybody who says that SucKS is “really good” is kind of annoying.

Amazing what happens when you play good teams and not baked goods.

[Masterofreality]

Oklahoma is a 6th seed with a 16-11 record (6-9 conference). Wow, it looks like ESPN wants to make sure they remain relevant.

They can’t stop jocking Trae Young for POY and they can’t stop jocking Oklahoma.
Along with Seth “Miss the Dance” Greenberg’s “Off Broadway” comment about the Big East, espn has lost any minuscule credibility it had left.

[paulxu]

How can you have any credibility when you dis a league that has 60% of it's members slotted in the tournament, and 2 of the top 4 seeds?

[GetUp5]

How can you have any credibility when you dis a league that has 60% of it's members slotted in the tournament, and 2 of the top 4 seeds?

How can you have any credibility when you give Caitlyn Jenner the Arthur Ashe Courage Award during the ESPYs?
How can you have any credibility when you report on Michael Sam's showering habits?
How can you have any credibility when you compare Colin Kaepernick to MLK Jr?

MSESPN, ya'll.

[stammina0721]

I hope to God we get paired up with either Purdue or Michigan State. Those two matchups are dream matchups for X

[stammina0721]

On the same note I want nothing to do with NC State in an 8-9 game. I said it once ill say it again...That team is a match up nightmare.

[HenryMuto]

On the same note I want nothing to do with NC State in an 8-9 game. I said it once ill say it again...That team is a match up nightmare.

Mid Majors almost never get at large bids because they only get a few chances each year and they are expected to blow threw their league at a 17-1 or 18-0 clip which is crazy considering how tough road games are for everyone.

Case in point North Carolina Greesnboro won at NC State this year 81-76.

[Xavier]

I hope to God we get paired up with either Purdue or Michigan State. Those two matchups are dream matchups for X

I just want to avoid Duke. I think Virginia is good but less likely they reach elite 8 (compared to Duke). At this point, Nova is the other team I don’t want in our region.

[xu82]

I just want to avoid Duke. I think Virginia is good but less likely they reach elite 8 (compared to Duke). At this point, Nova is the other team I don’t want in our region.

I want to punch Duke in their lady parts.

[GIMMFD]

I just want to avoid Duke. I think Virginia is good but less likely they reach elite 8 (compared to Duke). At this point, Nova is the other team I don’t want in our region.

I 100% agree with avoiding Duke. Bagley and Carter are incredibly athletic and would blow by Kanter and O'Mara, not the best of match-ups to have, I also agree with the assessment of Virginia, they'd be a bit easier to get it going against since their forte is defense, and we have 9 different options (I mean literally everyone of the 9 guys we play regularly has scored 13 points or more in a game, that's ridiculous). Basically anybody with some athletic, quick bigs, I wouldn't love drawing too much. It'll be interesting to see how things shake out.

[stammina0721]

Mid Majors almost never get at large bids because they only get a few chances each year and they are expected to blow threw their league at a 17-1 or 18-0 clip which is crazy considering how tough road games are for everyone.

Case in point North Carolina Greesnboro won at NC State this year 81-76.

While true NC State is not the same team they were back then. They are playing infinitely better now. That team will be a sweet 16 team. I just hope it's not at the expense of X

[GoMuskies]

Lunardi's latest bracket would be a dream. Shitty #8/#9 teams. Kentucky or Texas Tech in the Sweet Sixteen and Michigan State or Cincinnati (LOL, okay, Michigan State) in the elite 8.

I know that the Midwest Regional is the weakest one, too, because EVERYONE in the comments loves their Midwest draw (Michigan State, Kentucky and Cincinnati fans).

[chico]

With the revenge tour we've been on this year, the perfect bracket would have UCLA as the 8 seed, Gonzaga as the 4 and Duke as the 2.

[dethwing]

And Wisconsin the 16.

....What? I can dream too.

[Xville]

Lunardi's latest bracket would be a dream. Shitty #8/#9 teams. Kentucky or Texas Tech in the Sweet Sixteen and Michigan State or Cincinnati (LOL, okay, Michigan State) in the elite 8.

I know that the Midwest Regional is the weakest one, too, because EVERYONE in the comments loves their Midwest draw (Michigan State, Kentucky and Cincinnati fans).

I know they haven't had a great year, but I don't want to face UK in the tourney. Too much talent even if it isn't the typical one and done UK talent, there is still a lot of it.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I know they haven't had a great year, but I don't want to face UK in the tourney. Too much talent even if it isn't the typical one and done UK talent, there is still a lot of it.

I think it just depends on where we would face them. I agree I dont want anything to do with them in the second round as a 8/9 seed. But if we face them Sweet 16 or further I would be ok with it because there would probably be a lot of other potential teams at that point that I wouldnt want to see.

[TUclutch]

I know they haven't had a great year, but I don't want to face UK in the tourney. Too much talent even if it isn't the typical one and done UK talent, there is still a lot of it.

This. Obviously we're gonna have to play some good teams along the way, but with that said, if every lower seed could pull upsets so we don't have to play a single seed higher than 9, I would be all for it. Always hope for the easiest draw and never apologize for it. Anyone who says "i wanna play the best" is crazy. While I get the premise, it is still crazy that some prefer that route. As someone who has coached other sports competitively, never apologize for good matchups due to other teams pulling upsets.

[XUOHTX]

I want to punch Duke in their lady parts.

#MeToo?

[HenryMuto]

Lunardi's latest bracket would be a dream. Shitty #8/#9 teams. Kentucky or Texas Tech in the Sweet Sixteen and Michigan State or Cincinnati (LOL, okay, Michigan State) in the elite 8.

I know that the Midwest Regional is the weakest one, too, because EVERYONE in the comments loves their Midwest draw (Michigan State, Kentucky and Cincinnati fans).

It's kind of funny for me since I belong to both sites. Here you are talking about what a dream it be because Kentucky is the 4/5 to X's 1 and I just got done listen to the same talk at Kentucky site about how what a dream it be to be a 4/5 there to X's 1.

I say the same thing here I say to them at the Kentucky site. Be careful what you wish for.

[Lloyd Braun]

We would smoke UK. Can you imagine the chip on Q’s shoulders? He would drop 30/10/5 on them. And a facial.

[xu82]

It's kind of funny for me since I belong to both sites. Here you are talking about what a dream it be because Kentucky is the 4/5 to X's 1 and I just got done listen to the same talk at Kentucky site about how what a dream it be to be a 4/5 there to X's 1.

I say the same thing here I say to them at the Kentucky site. Be careful what you wish for.

Well, you gotta play someone, and there’s a good chance you’re a fan!

I kid, I kid.... :biggrin:

Every game scares me. I won’t take anyone lightly. I just want this to be special!

[chico]

It's kind of funny for me since I belong to both sites. Here you are talking about what a dream it be because Kentucky is the 4/5 to X's 1 and I just got done listen to the same talk at Kentucky site about how what a dream it be to be a 4/5 there to X's 1.

I say the same thing here I say to them at the Kentucky site. Be careful what you wish for.

A couple of friends who are big UK fans came up for a game earlier this year. Came away saying they want no part of us.

[GoMuskies]

It's kind of funny for me since I belong to both sites. Here you are talking about what a dream it be because Kentucky is the 4/5 to X's 1 and I just got done listen to the same talk at Kentucky site about how what a dream it be to be a 4/5 there to X's 1.

I say the same thing here I say to them at the Kentucky site. Be careful what you wish for.

You have to get someone as a 4 seed. For my money, I'll take the 4 seed that three games ago was thinking they might end up in the NIT.

[xu82]

You have to get someone as a 4 seed. For my money, I'll take the 4 seed that three games ago was thinking they might end up in the NIT.

Unless, of course, they are the team that is getting hot at the right time..... Peak in March baby!

[GIMMFD]

Unless, of course, they are the team that is getting hot at the right time..... Peak in March baby!

Literally, I'm sure Arizona fans thought Xavier would be slight work, we saw how that turned out for them. Match-ups are important, but it's more so about who's playing the best basketball, hoping Mack has the boys ready for it.

[xu82]

Literally, I'm sure Arizona fans thought Xavier would be slight work, we saw how that turned out for them. Match-ups are important, but it's more so about who's playing the best basketball, hoping Mack has the boys ready for it.

That just may be the thing Mack does best! Fingers crossed!

[muethibp]

With Carolina’s rise and assuming the Committee wants to give them a site in the South, we’re being squeezed out of Nashville. Most places think Detroit now. Leaving aside commentary about the relative fun of each city, the ticket situation for the Sunday game in Detroit is going to be a huge mess.

[powerofX]

Halftime of duke vt. ESPN stats say "a win gives a 97% chance of being a one seed". Wtf?!?

[AviatorX]

Halftime of duke vt. ESPN stats say "a win gives a 97% chance of being a one seed". Wtf?!?

I mean...if Duke stays hot I don't think X really has an argument over them.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I mean...if Duke stays hot I don't think X really has an argument over them.

I mean as of now XU as a better RPI, better SOS, more top 25 wins, same top 50 wins, more top 100 wins, and Zero losses outside of the top 50 where Duke has two. We keep winning no one will/should jump us from 1 seed line.

[JTG]

I mean...if Duke stays hot I don't think X really has an argument over them.
How about if X is ahead of Duke, and continues ahead of Duke, how does Duke supplant them ? Unless of course they get fu*ked over by the committee. Which, of course is possible.

[muskiefan82]

And Virginia tech ends this conversation for the time being

[HenryMuto]

Down goes Duke !!!!!!!!!!!!!

This helps the cause though I am not sure both Nova and X can get a 1 seed in the end since 1 of them has to lose again.

[D-West & PO-Z]

And Virginia tech ends this conversation for the time being

Yes! Down goes the Dookies!

A KU loss now would be awesome.

[HenryMuto]

When the Tech guy shot that ball I knew it was going over the hoop was just hoping that other Tech dude would catch it and not blow it which he did then the refs didn't call a foul on the final shot there was contract on tripper boy.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Down goes Duke !!!!!!!!!!!!!

This helps the cause though I am not sure both Nova and X can get a 1 seed in the end since 1 of them has to lose again.

If both get to the BE finals with no other losses first I think they both get 1 seeds.

[HenryMuto]

If both get to the BE finals with no other losses first I think they both get 1 seeds.

Only time will tell all depends on how other teams do that are near the same spot.

Duke losing tonight helps but if they win against North Carolina and then win the ACC championship they will be right back there near the cut line.

[AviatorX]

How about if X is ahead of Duke, and continues ahead of Duke, how does Duke supplant them ? Unless of course they get fu*ked over by the committee. Which, of course is possible.

Well, Duke has lost since I posted (good reverse jinx on my end), but Duke "staying hot" would have involved a road win @ VT a win over UNC and whatever damage they could do in Brooklyn like they did last season. X would probably need to win out (including over Nova) to hold them off in that case.

All moot now.

[HenryMuto]

Well, Duke has lost since I posted (good reverse jinx on my end), but Duke "staying hot" would have involved a road win @ VT a win over UNC and whatever damage they could do in Brooklyn like they did last season. X would probably need to win out (including over Nova) to hold them off in that case.

All moot now.

Not moot if X loses a game or if Duke beats NC and then wins the ACC championship beating Virginia along the way and maybe NC again.

[MauriceX]

If both get to the BE finals with no other losses first I think they both get 1 seeds.

I feel like we have this conversation every year, but don't most committee members say that most of the field is set prior to conference tourneys? They only really look at auto-qualifiers and bubble teams during that time?

[AviatorX]

Not moot if X loses a game or if Duke beats NC and then wins the ACC championship beating Virginia along the way and maybe NC again.

True. Would realllllly love for X and Duke to end up on the same line so they definitely aren't in the same region. Unfortunately that's more likely at 2 than 1.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Not moot if X loses a game or if Duke beats NC and then wins the ACC championship beating Virginia along the way and maybe NC again.

If X and Duke both win out and our winning out includes a win over Nova we will be above Duke. We would still have a better resume than them.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I feel like we have this conversation every year, but don't most committee members say that most of the field is set prior to conference tourneys? They only really look at auto-qualifiers and bubble teams during that time?

I feel like they say that but how many times have we seen teams make major seed jumps based off conference tourney wins? Teams definitely play themselves onto the 1 line. There was a recent year where we kind of were going to be on the bubble then we went on a run in the tourney and we jumped to like a 6 seed.

[stammina0721]

If X wins the next two a one seed is guaranteed even with a first game exit at MSG

[stammina0721]

I feel like they say that but how many times have we seen teams make major seed jumps based off conference tourney wins? Teams definitely play themselves onto the 1 line. There was a recent year where we kind of were going to be on the bubble then we went on a run in the tourney and we jumped to like a 6 seed.

I would disagree here. I think in conference tournaments you see lots of teams swap in the 3 to 7 range. I think the top 8 seeds are usually set pre conference tourney with a couple of exceptions. I think the only exception this year is Michigan State. They are not there now but could make it. I truly think we have 5 teams playing for the top 4 seeds

Of course that assumes these teams win out this week except Virginia. They are locked no matter if they show up or not

[stammina0721]

My updated predicted order the committee is as follows...

1. Virginia
2. Nova
3. Xavier
4. Kansas
5. Michigan State

Duke is out unless both Kansas and X lose twice. Zags have zero chance in my opinion. I think the committee will put Nova ahead of X unless X beats them in MSG.

[Juice]

My updated predicted order the committee is as follows...

1. Virginia
2. Nova
3. Xavier
4. Kansas
5. Michigan State

Duke is out unless both Kansas and X lose twice. Zags have zero chance in my opinion. I think the committee will put Nova ahead of X unless X beats them in MSG.

Gonzaga probably won't even be a 4 seed let alone a 1 seed. Their resume is weak.

[TUclutch]

If X wins the next two a one seed is guaranteed even with a first game exit at MSG

Wrong

[xu95]

The fact that there are three first round sites within four hours of Cincinnati is really screwing me up. I have reserved hotel rooms in Nashville, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. One of them has to be the right one.

The second weekend gets nicer for me (living in KC). I already have my room reserved in Omaha. Now my only fear is they win the BE tournament and take the East bracket away from Villanova.

xu95

[xudash]

The fact that there are three first round sites within four hours of Cincinnati is really screwing me up. I have reserved hotel rooms in Nashville, Detroit, and Pittsburgh. One of them has to be the right one.

The second weekend gets nicer for me (living in KC). I already have my room reserved in Omaha. Now my only fear is they win the BE tournament and take the East bracket away from Villanova.

xu95

Selfish Bastard!

[xu95]

Selfish Bastard!

Honesty is the best policy.

[GoMuskies]

Isn't Omaha Xavier's preferred destination even if we're #1 overall? I think KU winning out and overtaking us is the biggest threat to Omaha (well, that or losing the first weekend).

[THRILLHOUSE]

Isn't Omaha Xavier's preferred destination even if we're #1 overall? I think KU winning out and overtaking us is the biggest threat to Omaha (well, that or losing the first weekend).

I'd think Atlanta would be X's preferred destination.

Distance from Cincy to each site:

Atlanta - 460 miles
Omaha - 724 miles
Boston - 882 miles
LA - 2,175 miles

[powerofX]

I'd think Atlanta would be X's preferred destination.

Distance from Cincy to each site:

Atlanta - 460 miles
Omaha - 724 miles
Boston - 882 miles
LA - 2,175 miles

Might be moot. Virginia is going to get number one overall and be in atl.

[THRILLHOUSE]

Might be moot. Virginia is going to get number one overall and be in atl.

Yeah at this point its extremely unlikely and almost impossible for UVA to drop off #1 Overall.

So let's assume UVA stays #1 and goes Atlanta, and X does enough to be #2 overall, that would make the decision Omaha or Boston. I think they'd prefer Omaha. Slightly closer and maybe the Creighton fans who go to the games would get behind us? But I'm guessing there are more flight options to Boston and it isn't that much farther away than Omaha, so I could see an argument for preferring that region.

[xu95]

I'd think Atlanta would be X's preferred destination.

Distance from Cincy to each site:

Atlanta - 460 miles
Omaha - 724 miles
Boston - 882 miles
LA - 2,175 miles

I stand corrected. Not sure why I thought the East regional was in Philly, which would be closer to Cincinnati than Omaha. You are correct, we just need to stay in front of Kansas.

[stammina0721]

Wrong

Fortunately I am not wrong. I can give countless examples of one seeds that lost in conference tournaments and didnt drop to how Xavier with two wins this week is a metric lock by committee standards, but who cares cause it isn't going to happen anyway. Xavier is going to win these last two and at least one if not more at MSG so im not going to go into the research. Just gonna enjoy the first one seed in program history.

[stammina0721]

Wrong

And Duke is out of the running with last night's loss. Only way they creep back in is for Xavier to lose twice and Michigan State to lose once. Michigan State needs to win the Big 10 which is not a lock and hope Xavier stumbles this week.

[X-band '01]

Also keep in mind that if Virginia is #1 overall, Xavier can only go to Atlanta if they fall to the 2-line and #6 overall on the seed list. The NCAA Selection Committee put in a new rule a couple of years ago that the top #1 seed and top #2 seed can no longer be in the same region.

I forget the year, but people complained about #1 Kentucky and #5 Wisconsin being in the same region as the top 2 seeds in the Midwest.

[Juice]

Fortunately I am not wrong. I can give countless examples of one seeds that lost in conference tournaments and didnt drop to how Xavier with two wins this week is a metric lock by committee standards, but who cares cause it isn't going to happen anyway. Xavier is going to win these last two and at least one if not more at MSG so im not going to go into the research. Just gonna enjoy the first one seed in program history.

At the beginning of the season I was hoping that X would play well enough to get a 3 seed and now the team is at the point that I'll be "pissed" if they fall to a 2 seed. What a crazy (good) season.

[usfldan]

Taking into account potential opponents (and the fact I'm not traveling to either site), Omaha may be the better option. Taking Jerry Palm's latest bracket as a guide (I had to choose one), there are six teams with Top 4 seeds that would definitely choose Atlanta- Virginia, Duke, Tennessee, Clemson, UNC, and Auburn. There are only three I can see definitely choosing Omaha - Kansas, Texas Tech, and Wichita St. Even then, if XU and Kansas are #1s, then we couldn't play Kansas in Omaha, and the other two are likely in the 3/4/5 range (Palm has them both as 4s now), so we'd see at most only one.
My point is, I'd rather play Michigan St. or Purdue in a primarily neutral site (Omaha) than Virginia or Duke in one that is likely to be to rooting for those teams (Atlanta).

[HenryMuto]

Well that helps. The Refs called a horrific foul call on Miami with 11 seconds left to keep them in it then Miami hit the buzzer beater.

Duke and NC both losing a game helps big time now 1 of them has to lose again on Saturday.

[stammina0721]

Well that helps. The Refs called a horrific foul call on Miami with 11 seconds left to keep them in it then Miami hit the buzzer beater.

Duke and NC both losing a game helps big time now 1 of them has to lose again on Saturday.

Like I said... If X wins the next 2 a one is guaranteed

[GIMMFD]

Like I said... If X wins the next 2 a one is guaranteed

Agreed, I think we're above the other teams vying for that 1 seed, win out the regular season and it'll be pretty tough to omit us from a one seed, not to mention we still have the Big East tourney to do some damage in, I have a good feeling we're gonna be happy on Selection Sunday.

[GoMuskies]

Now it's about staying in front of Kansas!

[XUFan09]

Like I said... If X wins the next 2 a one is guaranteed

You said this before the UNC loss (and maybe the Duke loss too?), and I'm assuming you couldn't see into the future on those. So, you can't really take credit for that; the competitiveness of Duke and UNC obviously changed with those losses. If X wins the next 2 and wins the first game of the conference tournament, then I would bet on a 1 seed being guaranteed. Before that, two of the three potential first matchups in the conference tournament would be clearly bad losses (Georgetown and DePaul). The third team, St. John's, wouldn't be a bad loss on a neutral court, but would be a blemish on an otherwise perfect Quadrant 2 record (which is helping Xavier out too). A 1 seed is not a guarantee then. X needs to get past the bad teams so that they only risk losing to tournament teams. That would help them secure a 1 seed in most scenarios.

[paulxu]

I was hoping for a repeat trip to Atlanta. It's closer for you Cincy guys than Omaha.
Gather that if we were there it would be as a 2 seed, and understand that lowers the percentage chance to advance.
Had visions of a payback for Duke.

Hope you guys can make it to Omaha and bring back our first FF!

[paulxu]

Also, being slotted in LA would not be good I wouldn't think. Certainly not for fans who wanted to make the trip by car.

https://fansided.com/2018/02/27/march-madness-seed-projections/

[GoMuskies]

It would be good for LA Muskie

[GoMuskies]

Of the final 16 teams according to ESPN's latest Bracketology (last 4 byes, last 4 in, first 4 out, next 4 out), all but 1 are power conference teams (Mark Schmidt's Bonnies the lone exception). Not a good year for the mid-majors and the "lesser" majors.

[GIMMFD]

I was hoping for a repeat trip to Atlanta. It's closer for you Cincy guys than Omaha.
Gather that if we were there it would be as a 2 seed, and understand that lowers the percentage chance to advance.
Had visions of a payback for Duke.

Hope you guys can make it to Omaha and bring back our first FF!

Omaha would be great just because we're relatively familiar with it due to Creighton, we'd know where to stay, where to get dinner, etc. which though doesn't seem too important in the grand scheme of things, could help with preparation and familiarization. Either that or I'm just reading entirely way too into it, which is a distinct possibility as well.

[xu82]

Omaha would be great just because we're relatively familiar with it due to Creighton, we'd know where to stay, where to get dinner, etc. which though doesn't seem too important in the grand scheme of things, could help with preparation and familiarization. Either that or I'm just reading entirely way too into it, which is a distinct possibility as well.

STOP THAT! “We” want Nashville then Atlanta. That should be obvious.

[HenryMuto]

Like I said... If X wins the next 2 a one is guaranteed

I don't agree with this. Much ball still to be played a team called Michigan State is in play. They win the Big Ten tournament and X loses to Nova once again in the BE tournament and you can probably kiss that #1 seed good bye. Kansas has likely passed X by right now.

[XUFan09]

I don't agree with this. Much ball still to be played a team called Michigan State is in play. They win the Big Ten tournament and X loses to Nova once again in the BE tournament and you can probably kiss that #1 seed good bye. Kansas has likely passed X by right now.

It would take very specific circumstances (the ideal set of conference tournament opponents) for Michigan State to even stand a chance at a 1 seed. They were at 11 in the S-curve the day after beating Purdue. They haven't done anything worthwhile since.

Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk

[D-West & PO-Z]

I don't agree with this. Much ball still to be played a team called Michigan State is in play. They win the Big Ten tournament and X loses to Nova once again in the BE tournament and you can probably kiss that #1 seed good bye. Kansas has likely passed X by right now.

How has KU jumped us? And MSU is not a real contender for a 1 seed a this point.

[X-band '01]

I agree on Kansas jumping Xavier, but I don't see how Sparty has done so. Kansas has a dearth of Q1 wins, but MSU's wins are mostly Q2 and Q3. The Big 10 sucked this year.

[xukeith]

Right now, UVA, Kansas, VU, and X are rock solid #1 seeds.
Based on criteria and resume. Worst case for X is if they lose at DePaul then lose first game in BE, then they drop to a 2.
Big 10 is having a down year.

ACC conference tourney champ if Duke or UNC, COULD possibly be a #1.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I agree on Kansas jumping Xavier, but I don't see how Sparty has done so. Kansas has a dearth of Q1 wins, but MSU's wins are mostly Q2 and Q3. The Big 10 sucked this year.

So you think we will be out West then? If KU has jumped us they would get the MW.

[94GRAD]

Assuming X wins the regular season Big East Conference outright, they will be ahead of Villanova on the S-Curve seeding. The committee has consistently said they value the regular season more than the conference tourneys. They won't have the second place team higher than the Conference Champions when they have the same regular season records. The only way we get shipped out west is if the committee has three teams other than Villanova ahead of us. My 2 cents.

[dethwing]

I'm confused, help me out. According to: http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi

X is 3rd in RPI behind Nova. Now, to my understanding, RPI is just 1/4 Win% + 3/4 SOS.

X and Nova have identical records, and according to this page, X has a slightly better SOS (9 to 11). So how are we behind them? What am I missing?

[paulxu]

The Win% is "adjusted" win%.
So Away Wins are worth more than Home Wins; same with losses.

Nova's losses are 3 Away games, 1 home.
X has a loss at home, and at a neutral site, and 2 away.
I can only guess that's the difference.

When they break it down on the team sheets, then you see Nova's loss was to a category 3 team; all of ours are category 1's.

[dethwing]

Oh right, I forgot they weighted wins and losses before calculating straight Win%. Thanks.

The Quadrant of the losses doesn't actually figure into the calculation. Those are just for comparison sake.

[stammina0721]

Well good thing style points dont matter. One seed is locked up absolute guarantee

[GoMuskies]

I think we need one more to lock up the #1 seed. I'd feel better with 2. I think we may need 3 more to be in Omaha instead of LA.

[HenryMuto]

I agree on Kansas jumping Xavier, but I don't see how Sparty has done so. Kansas has a dearth of Q1 wins, but MSU's wins are mostly Q2 and Q3. The Big 10 sucked this year.

I didn't say MSU jumped X I said if they win the Big 10 tournament and X does not win the Big East tournament then it is possible. Did not say they will just said it was possible.

[HenryMuto]

Assuming X wins the regular season Big East Conference outright, they will be ahead of Villanova on the S-Curve seeding. The committee has consistently said they value the regular season more than the conference tourneys. They won't have the second place team higher than the Conference Champions when they have the same regular season records. The only way we get shipped out west is if the committee has three teams other than Villanova ahead of us. My 2 cents.

It really doesn't matter where you finish in your conference it's who you played where you played and who you beat. Nova is likely still ahead of X because of those 2 wins over X.

X has every chance to take the lead back win the Big East tournament.

[HenryMuto]

Well good thing style points dont matter. One seed is locked up absolute guarantee

Nothing is locked up. Not even close.

If Duke or NC win the ACC tournament they will be in consideration of a 1 seed should X not win the BE tournament.

MSU if they win the Big 10 tournament could be in consideration if X loses.

[HenryMuto]

Also would prefer to get one of the top 3 overall #1 seeds to not go out West. That can only be certain by winning BE tournament and pushing Nova behind us.

[AviatorX]

Also would prefer to get one of the top 3 overall #1 seeds to not go out West. That can only be certain by winning BE tournament and pushing Nova behind us.

In theory if Duke and MSU are both 2 seeds, chances are they'd end up in the East and Midwest respectively, right? Isn't the only rule that the top 2 can't be with the top 1 and other than that geography rules?

So maybe something like:

1) UVA - Atlanta
2) Nova - Boston
3) KU - Omaha
4) X - LA
5) Duke - Boston
6) MSU - Omaha

That leaves the group of UNC, Purdue, Auburn, Tenn, etc. etc.

If thats the case, LA works for me.

[paulxu]

Man, LA is a looooooooong way.

What's better. #1 in LA, or #2 in Atlanta.

(Yes, I know the odds favor option A)

[HenryMuto]

I hate Michigan but should they win today then MSU is for sure not a #1 seed.

[X-band '01]

In theory if Duke and MSU are both 2 seeds, chances are they'd end up in the East and Midwest respectively, right? Isn't the only rule that the top 2 can't be with the top 1 and other than that geography rules?

So maybe something like:

1) UVA - Atlanta
2) Nova - Boston
3) KU - Omaha
4) X - LA
5) Duke - Boston
6) MSU - Omaha

That leaves the group of UNC, Purdue, Auburn, Tenn, etc. etc.

If thats the case, LA works for me.

If a conference has 4 teams in the Top 4 seed lines, they do have to be in separate regions.

[stammina0721]

Nothing is locked up. Not even close.

If Duke or NC win the ACC tournament they will be in consideration of a 1 seed should X not win the BE tournament.

MSU if they win the Big 10 tournament could be in consideration if X loses.

Dude you need to stop. I'm not trying to attack you but it IS a wrap. You think UNC is in the running? They have 8 losses. No team has ever been considered for a one seed with 8 losses. Xavier, Nova, Duke, Virginia, Kansas could all lose in the first round of their tournaments and UNC could win the ACC and they would not even be considered for a one seed.

The committee already stated Michigan State does not have the resume for a one seed. They did that by making them a 3 seed earlier this month. That and a loss today to Michigan eliminates them.

I know this is unchartered waters for Xavier fans but be confident. The regular season champ in the 2nd best conference in America with 4 losses who ended winning 12 of 13 games is a LOCK for a one seed. I'd put mortgages on it

[X-band '01]

We can cross Michigan State off the list of possible 1 seeds now.

[HenryMuto]

Dude you need to stop. I'm not trying to attack you but it IS a wrap. You think UNC is in the running? They have 8 losses. No team has ever been considered for a one seed with 8 losses. Xavier, Nova, Duke, Virginia, Kansas could all lose in the first round of their tournaments and UNC could win the ACC and they would not even be considered for a one seed.

The committee already stated Michigan State does not have the resume for a one seed. They did that by making them a 3 seed earlier this month. That and a loss today to Michigan eliminates them.

I know this is unchartered waters for Xavier fans but be confident. The regular season champ in the 2nd best conference in America with 4 losses who ended winning 12 of 13 games is a LOCK for a one seed. I'd put mortgages on it

Think what you want I just speak reality. MSU is done so they are now not a threat but Duke certainly is. Also that was a month ago and MSU had not lost since and would have picked up wins over Michigan and possibly Purdue still and would finish with only 3 losses so I said it was possible.

You know I have been doing this for a long time 20+ years and I have outscored everyone at the bracket matrix 2 out of the last 3 years and got all 68 teams right last year but what the hell do I know ?

[mid major]

I hate Michigan but should they win today then MSU is for sure not a #1 seed.

Hey Hendry(Good Fellas)!!! You’re right!

[HenryMuto]

Kansas down 30-14 in the 1st half helps. This could put X back to #3 overall.