Dance card

[OTRMUSKIE]

We arnt even close to being out and this site is scary good. Just ask VD.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[drudy23]

For the 98th time, no one is saying we'd be out if the tournament was selected today.

[xukeith]

I wonder how much this rating is due to injuries and losses without Bluiett.

Hope X beats Seton Hall but doubt it.

[XAVI3R23]

This is by far the weakest bubble I can remember. X is fine, just get Trevon healthy

[bleedXblue]

need 20 wins to be really safe in my opinion.......

[casualfan]

We arnt even close to being out and this site is scary good. Just ask VD.
http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

The site is good at predicting who will make the tournament.

It has historically been pretty bad at projecting seed lines though.

[casualfan]

This is by far the weakest bubble I can remember. X is fine, just get Trevon healthy

People say this every year because they simply forget how bad the bubble was the year prior.

[SemajParlor]

The site is good at predicting who will make the tournament.

It has historically been pretty bad at projecting seed lines though.

Still so much will happen before Selection Sunday. With that said, I'm starting to get a weird feeling simply based on my gut we'll be meeting UD in an 8/9 game.

[xubrew]

This isn't a major site, but it's one that I like. I know most of the guys who run it and they primarily do it to entertain themselves and their friends, but to varying degrees they're all connected to college athletics in one form or another and some opt to use aliases on the website.

They used to just do bracketology by acting like they were the selection committee and releasing what they thought it should be while making no attempt to guess the actual one. Last year they did it both ways, and they're doing it both ways again this year. The guy that tries to guess what the real committee will do ended up getting 65 teams within one of the actual seed line last year. That is crazy accuracy. That's far more accurate than any of the major networks that I know of. I think he knows people. I dont' think he's getting information directly from the committee room, but he knows the committee will enough to guess which members will lean which ways.

Just out of curiosity I went and checked his bracket that he did at this point last year, which was three weeks prior to Selection Sunday. In that one, he had 33 of the 36 at-large teams right, and of the teams that were inside the bubble (basically the First Four on up) he had 23 out of 46 seeded right or within one line of it. That's pretty impressive considering that lines 12-16 are almost impossible to miss when doing seeding, and they're impossible to miss when doing selecting since they're all in with the automatic bid anyway. That's 65/68 teams right, and 45/68 seeded right three weeks before the Selection Show. That's close to as accurate as what most bracketologists do on the day of the selection.

He says Xavier is in. I'm with him.

http://hoopshd.com/bracket-2/

[X-band '01]

That's better than the guy who thought Alabama and Pitt would be part of his last 4 teams in the field. If that isn't a sign of how wretched the cut line typically is, I don't know what else to tell people.

[mid major]

need 20 wins to be really safe in my opinion.......

I have to agree. Getting to 9 wins in the conference is foremost but getting to 10-8, which would mean going 2-2 in the last 4 games, would be essential to making the dance.

[xavierj]

I have to agree. Getting to 9 wins in the conference is foremost but getting to 10-8, which would mean going 2-2 in the last 4 games, would be essential to making the dance.

There will be several teams with losing conference records make the tourney this year....

[xubrew]

I've noticed we seem to freak out when things are going pretty well, and we seem to be overconfident when things are not. The year we were in the play in game everyone was certain we were making the field, which we technically did, but it was very close.

This year people are panicking, and I'm almost certain that we are very safely in. We can't lose our last four games and then lose the first conference tournament game, but even in that scenario we'd still have a chance of making it. But I don't think we're going to collapse like that. We've shown no signs of it. We've lost more than we're used to, but nearly every loss minus the Colorado game came against a team that was solidly in the tournament, or on the road against a team that is good at home and has a chance to make the tournament. It's not like we're racking up losses to NIT (or worse) caliber teams. We're not in a conference with a bunch of NIT or worse teams anymore.

[kellernr]

looks like they have 7 Big East teams in with G'Town just outside. That would be pretty cool.

[xukeith]

looks like they have 7 Big East teams in with G'Town just outside. That would be pretty cool.

Tons of money for each BE program. More to spread among 10 teams as opposed to gigantic conferences.
I would be SHOCKED if Providence and Marquette get in.

Maybe the bubble is flat awful this year

[kellernr]

Tons of money for each BE program. More to spread among 10 teams as opposed to gigantic conferences.
I would be SHOCKED if Providence and Marquette get in.

Maybe the bubble is flat awful this year
As of now here are the current braketology site projections:
CBS (Nova 1, Providence PIG, Seton Hall 10, Creighton 5, Butler 4, Xavier 7) 6 teams
ESPN (Nova 1, Seton Hall PIG, Marquette PIG, Xavier 7, Butler 4, Creighton 6) 6 teams
DanceCard (Nova 1, Butler 2, Creighton 5, Xavier 6, Marquette 10, Providence 11, Seton Hall 11, Gtown 1st 4 out) 7 teams
BracketMatrix (Nova 1, Butler 4, Creighton 5, Xavier 7, Marquette 11, Seton Hall 11)


Here is how the top 8 teams in the Big East have fared against the RPI top 100
Ex:
Team
1-25
26-50
51-100

Nova (locked in)
6-1
3-0
5-1

Butler (locked in)
4-2
3-0
8-2

Creighton ( Basically a lock)
4-2
1-1
6-2

Xavier ( needs to win 2 of the remaining games. Lets win tonight and then get everyone healthy. Depaul is still on the schedule so that’s basically a gimme game)
1-6
2-0
6-2

Marquette ( They have a tough schedule left. @ Providence/@ X/ Home against Crieghton. I think they go 1-2)
3-4
2-1
2-4

Seton Hall (If they go 3-1 the rest of the way they might sneak in. Hopefully X beats them tonight but if we don’t it will only help the conference to sneak another team in.)
1-6
2-0
3-3

Providence (They would need to win out to get to 20 wins but I think 3-1 might get them in as a low seed)
2-6
2-1
2-4

G’Town (All of their losses have been to teams in the top 100. They really don’t have any bad losses. If they can go 3-1 to end the year and win one 1 the BE Tourney I wouldn’t be surprised to see them sneak into a play in game. For some reason the experts havent eliminated them yet so it could happen)
3-7
1-3
2-4

[GetUp5]

Tons of money for each BE program. More to spread among 10 teams as opposed to gigantic conferences.
I would be SHOCKED if Providence and Marquette get in.

Maybe the bubble is flat awful this year

There would be nothing shocking about Providence or Marquette getting in.

[kellernr]

There would be nothing shocking about Providence or Marquette getting in.

I could see 3 Big East teams in the play in games.

[AviatorX]

I could see 3 Big East teams in the play in games.

Isn't that impossible? They aren't going to have them play each other.

[kellernr]

Isn't that impossible? They aren't going to have them play each other.


you are correct. 2 of the games are for 16 seeds.

[D-West & PO-Z]

you are correct. 2 of the games are for 16 seeds.

Yes but 2 are for 16 seeds.

It would be impossible for 3 BE teams to be in the play in games.

[D-West & PO-Z]

you are correct. 2 of the games are for 16 seeds.


Yes but 2 are for 16 seeds.

It would be impossible for 3 BE teams to be in the play in games.

Ha, ok that is weird, did you edit your post? As I was reading you said there were 4 games and you werent sure how it worked and I quoted that but the quoted post that came up said "you are correct 2 of the pkay in games are for 16 seeds"

[kellernr]

Ha, ok that is weird, did you edit your post? As I was reading you said there were 4 games and you werent sure how it worked and I quoted that but the quoted post that came up said "you are correct 2 of the pkay in games are for 16 seeds"

ya.

[X-band '01]

I could see 3 Big East teams in the play in games.


Yes but 2 are for 16 seeds.

It would be impossible for 3 BE teams to be in the play in games.

I'll leave it to xubrew to confirm since he's our human NCAA workbook, but there is nothing in the rules that stipulates that a conference cannot have more than 2 teams in the play-in games. If they have to play one another, so be it. I don't think they would bump a team down to a play-in game just to avoid a conference conflict.

[HenryMuto]

This isn't a major site, but it's one that I like. I know most of the guys who run it and they primarily do it to entertain themselves and their friends, but to varying degrees they're all connected to college athletics in one form or another and some opt to use aliases on the website.

They used to just do bracketology by acting like they were the selection committee and releasing what they thought it should be while making no attempt to guess the actual one. Last year they did it both ways, and they're doing it both ways again this year. The guy that tries to guess what the real committee will do ended up getting 65 teams within one of the actual seed line last year. That is crazy accuracy. That's far more accurate than any of the major networks that I know of. I think he knows people. I dont' think he's getting information directly from the committee room, but he knows the committee will enough to guess which members will lean which ways.

Just out of curiosity I went and checked his bracket that he did at this point last year, which was three weeks prior to Selection Sunday. In that one, he had 33 of the 36 at-large teams right, and of the teams that were inside the bubble (basically the First Four on up) he had 23 out of 46 seeded right or within one line of it. That's pretty impressive considering that lines 12-16 are almost impossible to miss when doing seeding, and they're impossible to miss when doing selecting since they're all in with the automatic bid anyway. That's 65/68 teams right, and 45/68 seeded right three weeks before the Selection Show. That's close to as accurate as what most bracketologists do on the day of the selection.

He says Xavier is in. I'm with him.

http://hoopshd.com/bracket-2/

They still do the brackets. They do it every Thursday night and have a Friday podcast I watch every week. They also have other podcasts as well. Once Championship week starts they do them daily. That guy who did the brackets last year for them to guess the committee has been really good the last few years.

I do the guess the committee thing myself each year since the 90s and kept track on a spreadsheet since 2003. I do not belong to the bracket matrix but each year I post my stuff before Selection Sunday 6 PM on a few sites as proof of my work. Jerry Palm has outscored me once in the last 11 years (we tied 1 year as well). In 2015 I actually scored more than all 100+ people on the bracketmatrix I had 351 pts the winner had 347. In 2013 I got all 68 teams correct that is the only year since I started keeping track in 2003 that I have done that. I on avg have missed 1.3 teams per season since 2003 (19 missed teams in 14 years)

Since 2003 I have got

All teams correct once (2013)
Missed 1 team 8 times
Missed 2 teams 4 times
Missed 3 teams once (2016)

[XUMIOH12]

They still do the brackets. They do it every Thursday night and have a Friday podcast I watch every week. They also have other podcasts as well. Once Championship week starts they do them daily. That guy who did the brackets last year for them to guess the committee has been really good the last few years.

I do the guess the committee thing myself each year since the 90s and kept track on a spreadsheet since 2003. I do not belong to the bracket matrix but each year I post my stuff before Selection Sunday 6 PM on a few sites as proof of my work. Jerry Palm has outscored me once in the last 11 years (we tied 1 year as well). In 2015 I actually scored more than all 100+ people on the bracketmatrix I had 351 pts the winner had 347. In 2013 I got all 68 teams correct that is the only year since I started keeping track in 2003 that I have done that. I on avg have missed 1.3 teams per season since 2003 (19 missed teams in 14 years)

Since 2003 I have got

All teams correct once (2013)
Missed 1 team 8 times
Missed 2 teams 4 times
Missed 3 teams once (2016)

thanks, but nobody really cares

[XMuskieFTW]

They still do the brackets. They do it every Thursday night and have a Friday podcast I watch every week. They also have other podcasts as well. Once Championship week starts they do them daily. That guy who did the brackets last year for them to guess the committee has been really good the last few years.

I do the guess the committee thing myself each year since the 90s and kept track on a spreadsheet since 2003. I do not belong to the bracket matrix but each year I post my stuff before Selection Sunday 6 PM on a few sites as proof of my work. Jerry Palm has outscored me once in the last 11 years (we tied 1 year as well). In 2015 I actually scored more than all 100+ people on the bracketmatrix I had 351 pts the winner had 347. In 2013 I got all 68 teams correct that is the only year since I started keeping track in 2003 that I have done that. I on avg have missed 1.3 teams per season since 2003 (19 missed teams in 14 years)

Since 2003 I have got

All teams correct once (2013)
Missed 1 team 8 times
Missed 2 teams 4 times
Missed 3 teams once (2016)

:spaz:

[American X]

I do the guess the committee thing myself each year since the 90s and kept track on a spreadsheet since 2003. I do not belong to the bracket matrix but each year I post my stuff before Selection Sunday 6 PM on a few sites as proof of my work. Jerry Palm has outscored me once in the last 11 years (we tied 1 year as well). In 2015 I actually scored more than all 100+ people on the bracketmatrix I had 351 pts the winner had 347. In 2013 I got all 68 teams correct that is the only year since I started keeping track in 2003 that I have done that. I on avg have missed 1.3 teams per season since 2003 (19 missed teams in 14 years)

Since 2003 I have got

All teams correct once (2013)
Missed 1 team 8 times
Missed 2 teams 4 times
Missed 3 teams once (2016)

Yesterday, we had a company-wide lunch with a fun little team challenge thrown in. Each table received 20 pieces of spaghetti, a piece of string, a piece of masking tape and a marshmellow. The object was to build the tallest freestanding structure with the marshmellow on top.

I won.

[Masterofreality]

Yesterday, we had a company-wide lunch with a fun little team challenge thrown in. Each table received 20 pieces of spaghetti, a piece of string, a piece of masking tape and a marshmellow. The object was to build the tallest freestanding structure with the marshmellow on top.

I won.

Did the other teams receive Participation Ribbons?

[American X]

Did the other teams receive Participation Ribbons?

Hell no. Meritocracy.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Well how did you win? Do u have a picture? Sounds like fake news to me.

[xubrew]

Yesterday, we had a company-wide lunch with a fun little team challenge thrown in. Each table received 20 pieces of spaghetti, a piece of string, a piece of masking tape and a marshmellow. The object was to build the tallest freestanding structure with the marshmellow on top.

I won.

I've done this before, but not with twenty pieces of spaghetti. Only ten. That's quite remarkable!! Twenty pieces! WOW!!

[xubrew]

I'll leave it to xubrew to confirm since he's our human NCAA workbook, but there is nothing in the rules that stipulates that a conference cannot have more than 2 teams in the play-in games. If they have to play one another, so be it. I don't think they would bump a team down to a play-in game just to avoid a conference conflict.

I'm not sure if someone already answered this or not, but this is correct.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Getting close to that danger zone. Win he next 2 and we are good