Bubble watch time

[OTRMUSKIE]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

[D-West & PO-Z]

I really enjoy the Bubble Watch update every week on ESPN.

Thanks for alerting us it started.

[SemajParlor]

I really enjoy the Bubble Watch update every week on ESPN.

Thanks for alerting us it started.

I'm irrationally excited about it starting. It's the little things in life.

[GoMuskies]

They need a new category for the "Other At-Large Contenders", because work left to do doesn't really apply to most of them. There's no work available. It's more like "Needs to avoid trainwreck loss to shitty teams that remain on schedule".

[GoMuskies]

Also, Bracket Busters should return in more limited form. Would I like to go see Middle Tennessee play at Wichita State this weekend? Yes, I would.

[xufan2434]

It's absolutely wild that Georgetown is somehow still alive for this. I know they say the bubble is down basically every year, but if they were to make it this year that would have to mean one of the worst bubbles of all time. They have 11 losses with like 7 games left still. They still have Nova twice, Creighton, Marquette, and SH. So I guess they can get some good wins still, but wow. That kind of record only got you in from the BE 2012 era and probably the ACC this year

[pimpinthebox]

Also, Bracket Busters should return in more limited form. Would I like to go see Middle Tennessee play at Wichita State this weekend? Yes, I would.

Bracket Busters was a great concept. Can't recall exactly how they did it, but it was successful (most of the time anyway) in giving teams in shitty conferences a chance at a good win as they were typically teams who fell into the "Needs to avoid trainwreck loss to shitty teams that remain on schedule" category. Sure helps weed out the pretenders as the selection process nears.

[muskiefan82]

I may get ridiculed for this, but not having Cincinnati as a lock seems ludicrous to me.

2149

[drudy23]

Bracket Busters was a great concept. Can't recall exactly how they did it, but it was successful (most of the time anyway) in giving teams in shitty conferences a chance at a good win as they were typically teams who fell into the "Needs to avoid trainwreck loss to shitty teams that remain on schedule" category. Sure helps weed out the pretenders as the selection process nears.

Bracket Busters was a made for TV sham. They put two bubble teams against each other, and more often than not, the loser often found themselves on the wrong side of the bubble. I read an article a few years ago that it felt like it was created to open up more spots for the power conferences, with the idea to pit non power bubble teams against each other, and weed half of them out.

If I was a mid major, I'd tell the Bracket Buster to stuff it.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I may get ridiculed for this, but not having Cincinnati as a lock seems ludicrous to me.

2149

They explain that the point of a lock is that they could literally lose every game the rest of the schedule and still get in.

I dont know UCs schedule but if that happened I assume they'd have some pretty horrid losses and be in bubble territory.

[SemajParlor]

Also, Bracket Busters should return in more limited form. Would I like to go see Middle Tennessee play at Wichita State this weekend? Yes, I would.

Completely agree. I loved Bracket Busters. Give me Monmouth vs Vermont this year.

[scoscox]

It's absolutely wild that Georgetown is somehow still alive for this. I know they say the bubble is down basically every year, but if they were to make it this year that would have to mean one of the worst bubbles of all time. They have 11 losses with like 7 games left still. They still have Nova twice, Creighton, Marquette, and SH. So I guess they can get some good wins still, but wow. That kind of record only got you in from the BE 2012 era and probably the ACC this year

Beating Creighton, Butler, and Oregon goes a long way, but I doubt they win enough remaining games to make it a real conversation

[Olsingledigit]

It's absolutely wild that Georgetown is somehow still alive for this. I know they say the bubble is down basically every year, but if they were to make it this year that would have to mean one of the worst bubbles of all time. They have 11 losses with like 7 games left still. They still have Nova twice, Creighton, Marquette, and SH. So I guess they can get some good wins still, but wow. That kind of record only got you in from the BE 2012 era and probably the ACC this year

Being in the BE is as much a help to GT as the "rest of the teams" are.

[Olsingledigit]

I may get ridiculed for this, but not having Cincinnati as a lock seems ludicrous to me.

2149

Not from me. I agree, they should be a lock to get in. Having said that, I say we beat them if we meet them in the tournament.

[Olsingledigit]

You might note that all of the three that should get in are the three that the BE added to the Catholic Seven. As I have said before, the C-7 chose wisely. I am sure they might not agree with you one by one as they get beat by the Chosen Three (C-3).

[muskiefan82]

They explain that the point of a lock is that they could literally lose every game the rest of the schedule and still get in.

I dont know UCs schedule but if that happened I assume they'd have some pretty horrid losses and be in bubble territory.

It is the AAC, I suppose.

[X-band '01]

They explain that the point of a lock is that they could literally lose every game the rest of the schedule and still get in.

I dont know UCs schedule but if that happened I assume they'd have some pretty horrid losses and be in bubble territory.

If UC were to lose out the rest of the way, it would include teams like SMU, UConn, Memphis, Houston, Central Florida, Tulsa and South Florida. Only USF would be a catastrophic loss out of that group, but .500 teams in the American that are nosediving would not get in. I think UC will lock themselves into the field in 2-3 weeks at the rate they're winning.

[D-West & PO-Z]

If UC were to lose out the rest of the way, it would include teams like SMU, UConn, Memphis, Houston, Central Florida, Tulsa and South Florida. Only USF would be a catastrophic loss out of that group, but .500 teams in the American that are nosediving would not get in. I think UC will lock themselves into the field in 2-3 weeks at the rate they're winning.

Yeah they could very well lose the rest and still get in but at least it would be a discussion, there would be pause.

They are pretty stingy about who they lock in, they dont want to lock someone and then have to unlock.

Given the way UC is playing they are essentially a lock but again they look at it from the stance of what if every remaining game on the schedule was a loss.

[X-band '01]

Jerry Palm also debuts his annual Bubble Watch at CBS Sports this week:

CBSSports.com - Bubble Watch 2017 (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch)

[xu82]

Jerry Palm also debuts his annual Bubble Watch at CBS Sports this week:

CBSSports.com - Bubble Watch 2017 (http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch)

Does the VD logo make you laugh every time? What the hell were they thinking?

[X-band '01]

If they were "on the fence," I'd be even happier.

[xubrew]

Bracket Busters was a great concept. Can't recall exactly how they did it, but it was successful (most of the time anyway) in giving teams in shitty conferences a chance at a good win as they were typically teams who fell into the "Needs to avoid trainwreck loss to shitty teams that remain on schedule" category. Sure helps weed out the pretenders as the selection process nears.

Bracket Busters started before online streaming was really a thing, and before every conference had a media deal outside of the conference tournament championship game. So, it was actually easy for ESPN to produce because all they had to do was get the schools to agree with it.

It was essentially second or third weekend of February, and the game appeared on the schedule as TBA. They would match the teams up two weeks out to make sure the best teams were matched against each other. The agreement was that it was a home and home, so there would be a return game the following year when the rest of the OOC games were played.

And, in the beginning it was actually successful. It created showcase matchups between good teams that people knew were good, but never got to see. The ratings were actually really good, so ESPN kept it up. And, it was good for the teams because it gave the good teams from the weak leagues a showcase game late in the season, which for a team like UNC Wilmington, or Valpo, or Middle Tennessee this year is a lot more exciting than just going through conference play where the best you can hope for is to avoid a bad loss.

What killed it was as more and more (and eventually all) the leagues signed media deals, it was just harder and harder for ESPN to logistically set it up. Some of the better Under the Radar conferences quit participating altogether because the network they were with just didn't want to open that date up and let the teams play a showcase game for a competitor. Although a lot of those leagues still had deals with ESPN, not all of them did. Eventually, it became too much of a headache for them, and the ratings kept dipping (probably because by that point you really could watch any team you wanted on any given night via internet stream or satellite dish), so ESPN pulled the plug on it.

What I liked the best was that it did create a showcase game late in the year for teams that rarely, if ever, got to play in one. But, that was more or less the side effect. The main reason they did it was because they felt it would be interesting, easy to put on, and that people would watch it. And it first, it was, it was, and they did. But, once that went away they quit doing it and have no plans to bring it back.

[MauriceX]

I may get ridiculed for this, but not having Cincinnati as a lock seems ludicrous to me.

2149

While there has already been much further discussion on this topic, I wanted to chime in and say I think it is ridiculous as well. But there are a few other teams that I think should be locks. (Florida, Butler, Xavier, and Creighton).

I know RPI is a flawed metric, but I noticed there were some high RPI teams that weren't getting love. I pulled the updated RPI info from Real-Time RPI

Xavier - RPI 9 SOS 7
Florida - RPI 10 SOS 14
Butler - RPI 13 SOS 9
Cincinnati - RPI 15 SOS 76
Creighton - RPI 16 SOS 25

Compare these to some of the locks:
Oregon - RPI 11 SOS 37
Arizona - RPI 12 SOS 41
Virginia - RPI 14 SOS 13

[xu95]

In a waaaaaaaaay to early Bracketology, Lunardi has Xavier in as a 6 seed in Indy playing the winner of the Clemson/Indiana game.

One of the things I really love about being in the Big East is he currently has 6 BE teams in with Georgetown being in the last 8 out. When was the last time the A-10 got over half their teams in? (Rhetorical Question. I know.)

[GoMuskies]

In a waaaaaaaaay to early Bracketology, Lunardi has Xavier in as a 6 seed in Indy playing the winner of the Clemson/Indiana game.

One of the things I really love about being in the Big East is he currently has 6 BE teams in with Georgetown being in the last 8 out. When was the last time the A-10 got over half their teams in? (Rhetorical Question. I know.)


Check out the '98 bracket. Once and future A-10 teams are all over the place (I count 11).

[THRILLHOUSE]

Check out the '98 bracket. Once and future A-10 teams are all over the place (I count 11).

I rather not re-visit the 1998 tournament...

[X-band '01]

Xavier, UMass, GW, Temple and Rhode Island (present at the time)

West Virginia (prior member)

Charlotte and Butler (future and defunct members)

Saint Louis, Richmond, Davidson (future members)

Had to do some digging to find Butler and Davidson. Even one-time Eastern 8 member Villanova was not part of the 1998 field. Then again, those were Nova's Steve Lappas years.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Updated:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Xavier [18-7 (8-4), RPI: 15, SOS: 6] The Musketeers have already dealt with their fair share of bad breaks this season. Guard Myles Davis left the school in January after being reinstated following a suspension. Then, guard Edmond Sumner went down for the year with a torn ACL. On Saturday, leading scorer Trevon Bluiett -- whose 24.1 points on 55 percent shooting per game in his past six outings had helped carry the Musketeers of late, and who had done all that while battling through nagging ankle injuries -- reinjured himself and had to leave the game. He returned in the second half, only to promptly leave again. It could be worse: A sprained ankle need not be the end of the world, and it's not like Xavier is in any real danger of missing the tournament. But it could be better, too.

[ChicagoX]

Updated:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Xavier [18-7 (8-4), RPI: 15, SOS: 6] The Musketeers have already dealt with their fair share of bad breaks this season. Guard Myles Davis left the school in January after being reinstated following a suspension. Then, guard Edmond Sumner went down for the year with a torn ACL. On Saturday, leading scorer Trevon Bluiett -- whose 24.1 points on 55 percent shooting per game in his past six outings had helped carry the Musketeers of late, and who had done all that while battling through nagging ankle injuries -- reinjured himself and had to leave the game. He returned in the second half, only to promptly leave again. It could be worse: A sprained ankle need not be the end of the world, and it's not like Xavier is in any real danger of missing the tournament. But it could be better, too.

I think it is quite possible that X could lose each of these next three road games, especially if Blueitt doesn't play or is limited in what he can do. If that happens, does everyone start to worry about X becoming a bubble team?

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think it is quite possible that X could lose each of these next three road games, especially if Blueitt doesn't play or is limited in what he can do. If that happens, does everyone start to worry about X becoming a bubble team?

Not really. I think at most we need 2 more wins on the season to be a lock.

I mean Lunardi's latest bracektology came out yesterday and he has Clemson, Seton Hall, and Marquette all in. All 3 of those teams have losing conference records. We arent even close to not making the tournament at this point. Will 3 straight losses make it a little more precarious? Sure. But if we get 2 more wins at any point in the remaining schedule I dont think there is any way we miss the tourney.

[X-band '01]

Clemson doesn't just have a losing record, they're a game out of DEAD FUCKING LAST in the ACC.

[X-band '01]

If you look at Xavier's 3 upcoming games:

Providence - on paper, this should be the most winnable game. If Bluiett can't go or has his minutes limited, we're looking at a 50/50 game. The Friars have lost to Creighton and St. John's at home, yet have beaten Butler. Bullock, Cartwright and Lindsay are the Friars' nucleus that needs to be neutralized for Xavier to win this one.

Marquette - deck is stacked in favor of Marquette for this one as they'll get a week of rest for this one. They're actually ahead of Creighton in terms of 3-pt shooting, which will be a problem if they're firing on all cylinders. Strangely enough, Xavier plays better in Milwaukee against this team for some reason.

Seton Hall - the only place besides Villanova where Xavier has yet to win a game. That will be the last of a 3-game homestand where the Hall hosts Creighton, Villanova and Xavier. Could be two tired teams in this one, but Xavier is in trouble if this is the game where the Muskies are forced to salvage the road trip.

[xufan2434]

If you look at Xavier's 3 upcoming games:

Providence - on paper, this should be the most winnable game. If Bluiett can't go or has his minutes limited, we're looking at a 50/50 game. The Friars have lost to Creighton and St. John's at home, yet have beaten Butler. Bullock, Cartwright and Lindsay are the Friars' nucleus that needs to be neutralized for Xavier to win this one.

Marquette - deck is stacked in favor of Marquette for this one as they'll get a week of rest for this one. They're actually ahead of Creighton in terms of 3-pt shooting, which will be a problem if they're firing on all cylinders. Strangely enough, Xavier plays better in Milwaukee against this team for some reason.

Seton Hall - the only place besides Villanova where Xavier has yet to win a game. That will be the last of a 3-game homestand where the Hall hosts Creighton, Villanova and Xavier. Could be two tired teams in this one, but Xavier is in trouble if this is the game where the Muskies are forced to salvage the road trip.

I'm heading to this one. Didn't realize till today that it is Marquette's homecoming. I've heard of a lot of alums heading back so should be hostile crowd

[GoMuskies]

If we lose all three (which would be four in a row), we'll definitely start to feel bubbly. No doubt.

Let's just avoid all that, shall we?

[SemajParlor]

If we lose all three (which would be four in a row), we'll definitely start to feel bubbly. No doubt.

Let's just avoid all that, shall we?

RealTimeRPI seems to think that's a real possibility :shocked2:

[xavierj]

If we lose all three (which would be four in a row), we'll definitely start to feel bubbly. No doubt.

Let's just avoid all that, shall we?

No chance. No team from a top 3 conference, with a top 10 schedule with a winning conference record is missing the tourney. Say they only win 1 or 2 more games, they would still get in with a 8 or 9 seed. I think they will go 4-2 or 3-3 and we in the 6-8 range.

[Muskie]

Never fear. I will take my flawless true road Game (for Muskie) winning streak on the road to Marquette this weekend and to Chicago. X is undefeated when I attend an away game that is a true Road Game for me.

[ChicagoX]

I'm heading to this one. Didn't realize till today that it is Marquette's homecoming. I've heard of a lot of alums heading back so should be hostile crowd

I will also be in Milwaukee for the game on Saturday. It looks like it's sold out, plus it's a night game, so it should be pretty loud in the Bradley Center if there are 19,000 fans in attendance. I just looked on Ticketmaster and there are only scattered resale tickets available.

[casualfan]

If you look at Xavier's 3 upcoming games:

Providence - on paper, this should be the most winnable game. If Bluiett can't go or has his minutes limited, we're looking at a 50/50 game. The Friars have lost to Creighton and St. John's at home, yet have beaten Butler. Bullock, Cartwright and Lindsay are the Friars' nucleus that needs to be neutralized for Xavier to win this one.
.


FWIW kenpom has the Providence game as basically a coin flip.

That does not take into account Trevon not playing.

[casualfan]

No chance. No team from a top 3 conference, with a top 10 schedule with a winning conference record is missing the tourney. Say they only win 1 or 2 more games, they would still get in with a 8 or 9 seed. I think they will go 4-2 or 3-3 and we in the 6-8 range.

If we lose the next three we'd be 8-7 in conference heading into a tough game against Butler.

That would definitely put us on the bubble.

Beat Butler and/or Marquette and Depaul and we'd definitely be in, but you're kidding yourself if you don't thbink we'd be in the bubble convo sitting at 8-7

[Muskie]

I will also be in Milwaukee for the game on Saturday. It looks like it's sold out, plus it's a night game, so it should be pretty loud in the Bradley Center if there are 19,000 fans in attendance. I just looked on Ticketmaster and there are only scattered resale tickets available. Didn't realize it was sold out (got my tickets through X, so haven't looked). I don't mind being up high at Marquette. It's a nice NBA arena.

[ChicagoX]

Didn't realize it was sold out (got my tickets through X, so haven't looked). I don't mind being up high at Marquette. It's a nice NBA arena.

It's possible they didn't put every section up for sale since sometimes arenas won't sell end sections in the upper level if they don't expect the sales. Regardless, there isn't anything available on Ticketmaster, so it should be a pretty good crowd.

[Muskie]

It's possible they didn't put every section up for sale since sometimes arenas won't sell end sections in the upper level if they don't expect the sales. Regardless, there isn't anything available on Ticketmaster, so it should be a pretty good crowd. I'll take a look at my tickets when I get home, but I believe they are in the uppers.

[nasdadjr]

Xavier is squarely on the bubble right now assuming Blueitt is out for a long time. If Xavier drops these next few game while Blueitt is out and if there is a threat of him being out for the tournament then they are in some real danger of missing. That can easily happen if he tries to come back too early and hurts himself more severely. I thought we were fine cause of the Creighton win proving we can win without Sumner. We may have to prove we can win without Blueitt as well if he hurts himself further

[LA Muskie]

Not really. I think at most we need 2 more wins on the season to be a lock.

I mean Lunardi's latest bracektology came out yesterday and he has Clemson, Seton Hall, and Marquette all in. All 3 of those teams have losing conference records. We arent even close to not making the tournament at this point. Will 3 straight losses make it a little more precarious? Sure. But if we get 2 more wins at any point in the remaining schedule I dont think there is any way we miss the tourney.

The man's holding me down, so public reps. Thanks for maintaining the sanity!

[GoMuskies]

The man's holding me down, so public reps. Thanks for maintaining the sanity!

Not sure how he's maintaining sanity. If we lose 4 in a row and are 8-7, we may only need two wins at that pount...but we'd only have 4 games to get those 2 wins. That's called the Bubble.

[XMuskieFTW]

Xavier is squarely on the bubble right now assuming Blueitt is out for a long time. If Xavier drops these next few game while Blueitt is out and if there is a threat of him being out for the tournament then they are in some real danger of missing. That can easily happen if he tries to come back too early and hurts himself more severely. I thought we were fine cause of the Creighton win proving we can win without Sumner. We may have to prove we can win without Blueitt as well if he hurts himself further

They can finish 2-5 and probably still get in. The only way we are "squarely on the bubble" is if that means that we haven't clinched a tourney spot yet.

[XUMIOH12]

Xavier is squarely on the bubble right now assuming Blueitt is out for a long time. If Xavier drops these next few game while Blueitt is out and if there is a threat of him being out for the tournament then they are in some real danger of missing. That can easily happen if he tries to come back too early and hurts himself more severely. I thought we were fine cause of the Creighton win proving we can win without Sumner. We may have to prove we can win without Blueitt as well if he hurts himself further

LOL Xavier is not squarely on the bubble right now. Do you even know what teams are squarely on the bubble right now?

[XUFan09]

The only way Xavier is squarely on the bubble is if Trevon doesn't come back. As absolutely nothing indicates that such a catastrophe is even remotely likely, Xavier is fine.

[xu82]

peak in march!

[XfansinKy]

If our guys are as healthy as possible when the Big East tournament comes, although losing an NBA prospect is never good, the 8 that are available will be able to just play and have fun without worrying about being pulled. I've always wondered which is better, an NIT championship or a berth in the to tournament. I'd say a birth in the tournament but it can't be too bad to go into the next season returning 3 very good players from an NIT championship team. That may be completely crazy thinking too but I've thought about that every year X may miss the tournament, which I don't think they will.

[bigdiggins]

If our guys are as healthy as possible when the Big East tournament comes, although losing an NBA prospect is never good, the 8 that are available will be able to just play and have fun without worrying about being pulled. I've always wondered which is better, an NIT championship or a berth in the to tournament. I'd say a birth in the tournament but it can't be too bad to go into the next season returning 3 very good players from an NIT championship team. That may be completely crazy thinking too but I've thought about that every year X may miss the tournament, which I don't think they will.

An NIT championship is like making out with a hot chic and the lights come on and you realize it's your sister. It's the f'ing NIT.

[XfansinKy]

An NIT championship is like making out with a hot chic and the lights come on and you realize it's your sister. It's the f'ing NIT.

I'm from Ky. ����haha

[drudy23]

My guess is Trevon will not go tonight...just a guess.

And I know I'm feeling squemish if we lose 3 straight.

[BMoreX]

If our guys are as healthy as possible when the Big East tournament comes, although losing an NBA prospect is never good, the 8 that are available will be able to just play and have fun without worrying about being pulled. I've always wondered which is better, an NIT championship or a berth in the to tournament. I'd say a birth in the tournament but it can't be too bad to go into the next season returning 3 very good players from an NIT championship team. That may be completely crazy thinking too but I've thought about that every year X may miss the tournament, which I don't think they will.

A loss in the first round of the tournament is better than an NIT championship.

[Muskie]

If our guys are as healthy as possible when the Big East tournament comes, although losing an NBA prospect is never good, the 8 that are available will be able to just play and have fun without worrying about being pulled. I've always wondered which is better, an NIT championship or a berth in the to tournament. I'd say a birth in the tournament but it can't be too bad to go into the next season returning 3 very good players from an NIT championship team. That may be completely crazy thinking too but I've thought about that every year X may miss the tournament, which I don't think they will. It's also not bad to go in to next year with three very good players who made the NCAA tournament.

[pimpinthebox]

A loss in the first round of the tournament is better than an NIT championship.

Amen.

[nasdadjr]

LOL Xavier is not squarely on the bubble right now. Do you even know what teams are squarely on the bubble right now?

Once again I see reading comprehension is lacking by a few. Read the whole sentence. If Blueitt is out any extended period or is in danger of missing a tournament because he reinjures himself then yes they are on the bubble. The committee has proven in the past current roster matters. If X proves they can't beat bubble teams like Providence without Blueitt and he has question marks about availability at that time then it's bubble time.

Oh and if Xavier finishes 2-5 they are not in.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Once again I see reading comprehension is lacking by a few. Read the whole sentence. If Blueitt is out any extended period or is in danger of missing a tournament because he reinjures himself then yes they are on the bubble. The committee has proven in the past current roster matters. If X proves they can't beat bubble teams like Providence without Blueitt and he has question marks about availability at that time then it's bubble time.

Oh and if Xavier finishes 2-5 they are not in.

If Xavier gets to 20 wins they are a lock.

[HenryMuto]

Well this team is in big trouble now.

[AviatorX]

Well this team is in big trouble now.

I appreciate that you bring the "Rupp Rafters" hysterics to this board. Need more overblown angst among our fans if we're ever going to be a true high major.

[Xavier]

If Xavier gets to 20 wins they are a lock.

Yep. 20 wins (including Big East tournament) and X is a lock. Not worried at all

[mirabilelectu]

Yep. 20 wins (including Big East tournament) and X is a lock. Not worried at all

If Tre comes back soon then we should be okay. Unfortunately PC was one of our most winnable left; where does everyone see the Ws coming? Just curious.

[Xavier]

Without tre I think providence was one of more difficult (assuming tre is back from here on out.)

[XUMIOH12]

Xavier is squarely on the bubble right now


Once again I see reading comprehension is lacking by a few. Read the whole sentence. If Blueitt is out any extended period or is in danger of missing a tournament because he reinjures himself then yes they are on the bubble. The committee has proven in the past current roster matters. If X proves they can't beat bubble teams like Providence without Blueitt and he has question marks about availability at that time then it's bubble time.

Oh and if Xavier finishes 2-5 they are not in.

You literally said that Xavier is on the bubble right now. How else is someone supposed to read that?

Also, you said that Xavier is on the bubble right NOW, based on a hypothetical future situation.

[HenryMuto]

I appreciate that you bring the "Rupp Rafters" hysterics to this board. Need more overblown angst among our fans if we're ever going to be a true high major.

With no Trevon Bluiett and games at Marquette, at Seton Hall, vs Butler coming up you are not worried ? I am very worried about this team. Providence was the easiest of those 4 games. If Trevon comes back and is near 100% then things will probably be fine but I don't think he will be 100% in the next couple games and should probably sit out and rest and try and get back as close to 100% as possible for March but X really can't afford a long losing streak right now.

Without a healthy Trevon things are going to be tough.

[xavierj]

With no Trevon Bluiett and games at Marquette, at Seton Hall, vs Butler coming up you are not worried ? I am very worried about this team. Providence was the easiest of those 4 games. If Trevon comes back and is near 100% then things will probably be fine but I don't think he will be 100% in the next couple games and should probably sit out and rest and try and get back as close to 100% as possible for March but X really can't afford a long losing streak right now.

Without a healthy Trevon things are going to be tough.

What makes you think Providence was the easiest? They just beat butler, won at Marquette, beat seton hall at home and lost by 2 in OT at Seton Hall. Maybe that was the hardest game, especially the first game without Trevon.

[HenryMuto]

Of course if you really study the bubble X would have to probably lose most of their remaining games to miss I mean it is truly terrible the resume's right now of the last 4 teams that will make the tournament.

[nasdadjr]

You literally said that Xavier is on the bubble right now. How else is someone supposed to read that?

Also, you said that Xavier is on the bubble right NOW, based on a hypothetical future situation.

You literally cut off the sentence in your quote to warp my full sentence into some convoluted garbage. You must be a liberal media member

[XfansinKy]

Another great recruiting class and another one on the way, and were talking about the bubble. Ranked top ten preaseason and fell out before the tough part of season.

[Xavier]

Keep in mind, X was ranked in top 10 to start when Davis was still expected to play all year. If you don't change expectations when Davis and Sumner are out for the year then you're nuts. Sorry to burst your bubble.

[XfansinKy]

:wink:
Keep in mind, X was ranked in top 10 to start when Davis was still expected to play all year. If you don't change expectations when Davis and Sumner are out for the year then you're nuts. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Yes. It's been a disaster. No Myles as a combo guard with the prettiest jump shot in basketball, I still think Gate's knee isnt right, Sumner's knee gets blown out, Tre's ankle is obviously sprained badly, I swear I've noticed Bernard limping some the last couple weeks, and as much promise and elite athletic ability we've seen flashes from Jones, he's probably about 60-70%. I'm thinking rest the ones who need it most until the Big East tournament, and like the movie Major League "Win the Whole Fkn Thing".

[GIMMFD]

:wink:

Yes. It's been a disaster. No Myles as a combo guard with the prettiest jump shot in basketball, I still think Gate's knee isnt right, Sumner's knee gets blown out, Tre's ankle is obviously sprained badly, I swear I've noticed Bernard limping some the last couple weeks, and as much promise and elite athletic ability we've seen flashes from Jones, he's probably about 60-70%. I'm thinking rest the ones who need it most until the Big East tournament, and like the movie Major League "Win the Whole Fkn Thing".

Ah yes with that logic let's put our walk-ons out there, with about 2 scholarship players. We can't rest everyone, that's the ugly truth of it.

[XUMIOH12]

Once again I see reading comprehension is lacking by a few. Read the whole sentence. If Blueitt is out any extended period or is in danger of missing a tournament because he reinjures himself then yes they are on the bubble. The committee has proven in the past current roster matters. If X proves they can't beat bubble teams like Providence without Blueitt and he has question marks about availability at that time then it's bubble time.

Oh and if Xavier finishes 2-5 they are not in.


Xavier is squarely on the bubble right now assuming Blueitt is out for a long time. If Xavier drops these next few game while Blueitt is out and if there is a threat of him being out for the tournament then they are in some real danger of missing. That can easily happen if he tries to come back too early and hurts himself more severely. I thought we were fine cause of the Creighton win proving we can win without Sumner. We may have to prove we can win without Blueitt as well if he hurts himself further


You literally cut off the sentence in your quote to warp my full sentence into some convoluted garbage. You must be a liberal media member

Once again, you are saying Xavier is squarely on the bubble right now due to a future scenario that has yet to play out. Your entire comment is convoluted garbage. I don't know how you expect people to decipher the crap that you write; it makes me think that you are functionally illiterate.

[GoMuskies]

Lunardi says we're a 7 now. We're probably headed for the "dreaded" 8/9 territory. I actually like that spot, personally. If you're in that position, you're clearly not that good anyway, so why not just take your shot at the #1 seed the first weekend and get on with it.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

[gladdenguy]

Yeah after these next 2 losses on the road we will be one of the last 8 seeds or a 9.
Lose to Butler at home then it's absolutely bubble time. Beating Butler and not losing to DePaul would probably be enough.
Beat Marquette with those 2 games and they are a lock.
Winning a game or 2 with those 3 wins might get us back to a 7.
It just sucks that we know we will lose the next 2 after back to back losses.

[XU3232]

If we can't get a 6 or 7 seed I'd rather hope to slip to an 11. Better chance of getting to the second weekend with that seed in my opinion.

[xufan2434]

If we can't get a 6 or 7 seed I'd rather hope to slip to an 11. Better chance of getting to the second weekend with that seed in my opinion.

6 or 11 is always my hope if they're not gonna be a top seed. That's the best route to the 2nd weekend. 7/10 is possible based on who the 2 is, but a lot of things have to go X's way for that. 8/9 would suck just simply with what I was hoping for coming into the season

[GoMuskies]

The lower the number the better.

[XMuskieFTW]

The 8-9 seed doesn't worry me as much this year as in the past. I think we could beat both Baylor and Gonzaga if we landed those matchups.

[mistabeecee41]

Remember - the committee DOES take injuries into consideration if the specific player is back at full force come tourney time.

If Tre rests again, we lose, and we get back to playing solid basketball (3-1 over the last 4, don't fuck up and get bounced in the 1st round at MSG) - the committee will probably look at those two losses as "meh, best player injured on the road" losses.

[GoMuskies]

The 8-9 seed doesn't worry me as much this year as in the past. I think we could beat both Baylor and Gonzaga if we landed those matchups.

We could beat any of them (it obviously wouldn't be Villanova). It'd be unlikely (hell, we'd almost certainly be an underdog in our first game with the current roster), but may as well take your shot.

[GetUp5]

Woohoo! We have our first instance of #MSESPN calling us the Mountaineers this season in this mornings Bubble Watch.

[BMoreX]

Woohoo! We have our first instance of #MSESPN calling us the Mountaineers this season in this mornings Bubble Watch.

A tradition unlike any other.

[X-band '01]

Woohoo! We have our first instance of #MSESPN calling us the Mountaineers this season in this mornings Bubble Watch.

I take it you're a Clay Travis fan?

[XU3232]

6 or 11 is always my hope if they're not gonna be a top seed. That's the best route to the 2nd weekend. 7/10 is possible based on who the 2 is, but a lot of things have to go X's way for that. 8/9 would suck just simply with what I was hoping for coming into the season

For sure... completely agree.

[GetUp5]

I take it you're a Clay Travis fan?

Absolutely.

[xubrew]

Xavier is not on the bubble. Good grief.

We're not a lock, at least not how I would define it. A lock to me means that you can lose every remaining game and still make it. But if the season ended today Xavier would be wearing white in the round of 64. I don't consider that to be on the bubble.

[XfansinKy]

Ah yes with that logic let's put our walk-ons out there, with about 2 scholarship players. We can't rest everyone, that's the ugly truth of it.

I think the last 2 or 3 games are winnable, especially if Tyrique rests his knees, Tre rests his ankle, and Bernard gets some rest on whatever it is that is causing him to limp. The schedule has a spot in it(8 days) that would allow them to rest and have only one game to possibly sacrifice. If that's what it takes to get them healthy,and if it will help get them healthy, gotta consider it because the last 3 games are very winnable with a healthy bunch.

[HenryMuto]

With no Trevon Bluiett and games at Marquette, at Seton Hall, vs Butler coming up you are not worried ? I am very worried about this team. Providence was the easiest of those 4 games. If Trevon comes back and is near 100% then things will probably be fine but I don't think he will be 100% in the next couple games and should probably sit out and rest and try and get back as close to 100% as possible for March but X really can't afford a long losing streak right now.

Without a healthy Trevon things are going to be tough.

I believe I called this one. Brutal down 31-10...........

[Muskie]

I believe I called this one. Brutal down 31-10...........

At least wait until the game is over ?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[AviatorX]

I believe I called this one. Brutal down 31-10...........

Yeah but your point about the bubble was still wrong. Good work.

[gladdenguy]

Probably down to an 8 seed now. After Seton Hall maybe a 9 but still possibly an 8. That sets up Butler, Marquette both at home and DePaul on the road. Finish 3-0 or 2-1? With that said who knows what the committee will do if they finish 2-1 or 3-0 knowing Trevon was basically hurt for 3 losses. Virginia struggling too right now.

[nasdadjr]

Probably down to an 8 seed now. After Seton Hall maybe a 9 but still possibly an 8. That sets up Butler, Marquette both at home and DePaul on the road. Finish 3-0 or 2-1? With that said who knows what the committee will do if they finish 2-1 or 3-0 knowing Trevon was basically hurt for 3 losses. Virginia struggling too right now.

I do I do!!! I said it once I'll say it again...if we finished 2-5 we are out. That is just as true now as it was when I wrote it a week ago.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I do I do!!! I said it once I'll say it again...if we finished 2-5 we are out. That is just as true now as it was when I wrote it a week ago.

No its not.

[D-West & PO-Z]

2 more wins and we are an absolute, no doubt about it lock.

[nasdadjr]

2 more wins and we are an absolute, no doubt about it lock.

This is where we will just have to respectfully agree to disagree. Especially if Trevon isn't playing then it's a virtual lock. I can see a scenario where these loses force him to want to come back earlier and he hurts himself worse. I obviously cringe at that thought, but as snake bitten as this season has been it would be fitting.

[nasdadjr]

Besides look at the resume. I challenge anyone to tell me where the quality wins are when Creighton doesn't really count with Mo Watson out. Let's face it... every single big game played this year has not just been a loss... they have ended up being blow outs. That doesn't get the job done

[gladdenguy]

SOS is at 6. RPI at 16. At least 4 RPI Top 50 wins. 8-6 in a good conference. And still a chance for 2 more good wins against Butler and Marquette at home. No bad losses. That is nowhere near the bubble. And, the bubble is terrible.

[chico]

Besides look at the resume. I challenge anyone to tell me where the quality wins are when Creighton doesn't really count with Mo Watson out. Let's face it... every single big game played this year has not just been a loss... they have ended up being blow outs. That doesn't get the job done

So if our win against Creighton doesn't count since Watson was out then it only follows that our losses with Bluiett out shouldn't count, either.

Come back off the ledge.

[TUclutch]

nasdadjr being his usual ignorant self. Can we agree to ignore him and others like him

[OTRMUSKIE]

If x loses out rpi is still 34. They won't get in at 18-13 plus whatever happens in tournament. X beats depuke and Marquette they end the season with an rpi of 24 and sos of 7. They will be in. Now it may be at the Dump but the will be in. They probably arnt beating hall even with trey back. So I sit trey and bring him back for Futler.

[D-West & PO-Z]

We have 3 top 50 wins and 9 top 100 (7 are top 65 wins). No bad losses.

Now that isnt a resume to get a top really good seed but it is way more than enough to get in.

Illinois State who is one of Lunardi's last 4 in in most recent bracketology has 1 top 50 win, 2 top 100 wins, and 1 bad loss ( to a sub 200 team).

TCU is in his "last 4 buys" group with 2 top 50 wins and 5 top 100.

Remember we are talking jsut getting in here, not talking about resumes to get a great seed.

X is safely in now and will be safely in with 2 more wins.

[XUMIOH12]

We have 3 top 50 wins and 9 top 100 (7 are top 65 wins). No bad losses.

Now that isnt a resume to get a top really good seed but it is way more than enough to get in.

Illinois State who is one of Lunardi's last 4 in in most recent bracketology has 1 top 50 win, 2 top 100 wins, and 1 bad loss ( to a sub 200 team).

TCU is in his "last 4 buys" group with 2 top 50 wins and 5 top 100.

Remember we are talking jsut getting in here, not talking about resumes to get a great seed.

X is safely in now and will be safely in with 2 more wins.

Yes, we are just talking about getting in. All it takes is to look at the teams that are currently on the bubble and look at Xavier's resume, and you will see that right now, they are in (and not on the bubble at this point).

[OTRMUSKIE]

Seton hall will be the best of the 3 road games. If trey doesn't play it could be ugly. Is it national Hall day or anything?

[waggy]

When Gladden thinks you're pessimistic you might be a troll.

[jaxalum]

SOS is at 6. RPI at 16. At least 4 RPI Top 50 wins. 8-6 in a good conference. And still a chance for 2 more good wins against Butler and Marquette at home. No bad losses. That is nowhere near the bubble. And, the bubble is terrible.

The above is ALL that needs to be said. I think a Butler win and losses to Marq and EVEN Depaul still gets you in due to the quality of the Butler win. Beating Marquette and losing the other two, and you are squarely on the bubble, and may need a win or two in the conf tournament.

With this current team, even at home, it's going to be a monumental task to beat Butler. X has never guarded the 3 well, hence Marquettes style which they so aptly utilized to crush us tonight, that even at home, it's going to be a battle to for that W. Depaul can get hot (Nova game) and they have some talent. We won't be more than 5-7 pt favorites.

On a serious note, is everyone pretty confident we will finish 2-1 with the personnel we had on the floor tonight? (Butler, Marquette, @Depaul)

[mid major]

The above is ALL that needs to be said. I think a Butler win and losses to Marq and EVEN Depaul still gets you in due to the quality of the Butler win. Beating Marquette and losing the other two, and you are squarely on the bubble, and may need a win or two in the conf tournament.

With this current team, even at home, it's going to be a monumental task to beat Butler. X has never guarded the 3 well, hence Marquettes style which they so aptly utilized to crush us tonight, that even at home, it's going to be a battle to for that W. Depaul can get hot (Nova game) and they have some talent. We won't be more than 5-7 pt favorites.

On a serious note, is everyone pretty confident we will finish 2-1 with the personnel we had on the floor tonight? (Butler, Marquette, @Depaul)
Heck no I'm not confident. We are in trouble when O'Mara leads in the scoring column with 14 points. Let's cough up the Hall game and win 2 out of 3 with a healthy Tre. We need to get to 10-8 in conference to feel good.

[OTRMUSKIE]

20-12 gets you in dance as a PIG. X will win 2 more I promise. Trey will be back. Is there any rule where a player can play in a wheelchair or crutches ?

[Juice]

Guys, X is probably a 7 or 8 seed if the season ended today. We are far from the play in game and far from missing the tournament. Relax.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[slysyl]

Don't knock O'MARA, his scoring 14pts is a great confidence builder which he needed and the team needs. Go get em SEAN.

[kmcrawfo]

Guys, X is probably a 7 or 8 seed if the season ended today. We are far from the play in game and far from missing the tournament. Relax.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

Exactly right. Some folks need to step back a bit and look at our big picture. We are no where near the bubble. Zero bad loses. Several good wins.

Even if we pick up a loss at Seton Hall this week, when Trevon is back for the Butler game on Sunday, expect to see a different team. I anticipate closing out with 3 wins against Butler, Marquette, and DePaul and the team will be looking at a 6 or 7 seed. Potentially even higher with a run in the Big East tournament and loses by some other teams.

[kmcrawfo]

Heck no I'm not confident. We are in trouble when O'Mara leads in the scoring column with 14 points. Let's cough up the Hall game and win 2 out of 3 with a healthy Tre. We need to get to 10-8 in conference to feel good.

Our bigs were fantastic against Marquette over 50 points and 25 rebounds between the 4. Trevon's return will give Quentin the spacing he needs to succeed and defenses won't be able to key on JP putting him in his more normal role. We will take care of our last 3 games, I have no doubt.

There is still time for great things this season. Have faith.

[xudash]

I'm a little surprised with some of the defeatist attitudes around here.

Here's what I think:

1. We're Xavier - our culture is about winning.

2. Our kids - the highly rated ones - mostly know winning and certainly find losing to be disgusting.

3. I trust that means that they're inclined to want to get even while protecting our home court.

The bottom line is simple enough: assuming a healthy-enough squad, certainly including Tre of course, these guys are going dish out some PAYBACK to Butler and Marquette, in particular.

[OTRMUSKIE]

If this team can't rally around an injure Tre and Ed and at least make these games respectable I don't see how all of a sudden Tre comes back and now we are turning 15-23 points loses into wins. Tre will help for sure but it's not like we are losing by 1 or 2 points. We are flat out getting manhandled. At some point you have to blame the staff for not getting these kids prepared. You can only blame the injuries and players for so,long before you have to ask yourself is the staff doing everything they can to put these kids in position to win. Maybe they are and we just suck right now. It's soooooo frustrating, I have never seen Xavier get beaten this badly 3 games in a row in my 41 years on this earth. Then again I don't remember much from 1975-1980.

[xu82]

I'm surprised by how many people don't realize how mental this game is. Do you prefer a home game, or an away game? Why? Court dimensions remain the same. Lose your 5th year team leader, get him back, lose him again. Lose your 6'6' go-to future NBA PG? Lose your best scorer? These guys have taken a collective punch in the gut! They are learning from this lesson, and will be better down the road for the experience, but it's an experience that comes with some pain.

It's surely talent to a large degree, but it's also knowing your roles, and that's all changed.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Agree 82 but they arnt even competitive. I can understand if it at least was close. Hell I take a 10 point loss but to get destroyed like this isn't a good sign. Maybe Tre being back is what they need but even when this team was full staff they still had major issues shooting.

[XUFan09]

Agree 82 but they arnt even competitive. I can understand if it at least was close. Hell I take a 10 point loss but to get destroyed like this isn't a good sign. Maybe Tre being back is what they need but even when this team was full staff they still had major issues shooting.

After everything else that has happened, without Trevon, Xavier struggles to score, plain and simple. They didn't break a point per possession in any of the last three games. The offensive issues start a snowball effect, where defense becomes harder because opponents can more frequently start transition offense. It doesn't help that the increasingly shorter bench means that players are tired all the time on defense. In addition, when down (as so easily happens when you can't score and you're tired on the other end), Xavier still plays to win, meaning that they are taking risks like selling out for steals to try to come back. A lot of teams just go into cruise control once they fall behind and just try to keep up, but this Xavier team (and last year's) simply won't do that. You might consider it worse that they lose by more as a result, but I doubt anyone on the team differentiates between a 5-point loss and a 25-point loss.

[XUFan09]

I swear, with some of you, the entire starting lineup could be out, and you would still expect the team to magically perform well.

[OTRMUSKIE]

I swear, with some of you, the entire starting lineup could be out, and you would still expect the team to magically perform well.

Correct and I am guilty

[muethibp]

I swear, with some of you, the entire starting lineup could be out, and you would still expect the team to magically perform well.

From one perspective, the what-might-have-been lineup, nearly the entire starting lineup (Myles, Ed, Tre, and Reynolds) IS out.

[muskieindent]

If this team can't rally around an injure Tre and Ed and at least make these games respectable I don't see how all of a sudden Tre comes back and now we are turning 15-23 points loses into wins. Tre will help for sure but it's not like we are losing by 1 or 2 points. We are flat out getting manhandled. At some point you have to blame the staff for not getting these kids prepared. You can only blame the injuries and players for so,long before you have to ask yourself is the staff doing everything they can to put these kids in position to win. Maybe they are and we just suck right now. It's soooooo frustrating, I have never seen Xavier get beaten this badly 3 games in a row in my 41 years on this earth. Then again I don't remember much from 1975-1980.
I first started going to games in the mid 70"s.Tay Baker,Schmidt Fieldhouse,Struggling to beat NKU and never beating UC.But you didn't expect them to win.Now we don't expect to lose,at least not 4 in a row.This is frustrating but we'll survive.

[XUMIOH12]

From one perspective, the what-might-have-been lineup, nearly the entire starting lineup (Myles, Ed, Tre, and Reynolds) IS out.

you just cant count Reynolds lol

[drudy23]

Exactly right. Some folks need to step back a bit and look at our big picture. We are no where near the bubble. Zero bad loses. Several good wins.

Even if we pick up a loss at Seton Hall this week, when Trevon is back for the Butler game on Sunday, expect to see a different team. I anticipate closing out with 3 wins against Butler, Marquette, and DePaul and the team will be looking at a 6 or 7 seed. Potentially even higher with a run in the Big East tournament and loses by some other teams.

Not really sure anyone is saying that...but they are saying we could potentially not win another regular season game with our current lineup and an ailing Tre. That's a possibility...and if that becomes a reality, I think a little worry is warranted.

[GoMuskies]

We have four games left, three of which are imminently loseable (we will be underdogs or VERY slight favorites). There is one game in which we will be a moderate favorite (@ DePaul). We HAVE to win at least one of those games.

That, to me, is being on the Bubble. If the Selection Show was today, we'd be in. But it's not. And things could get real tight. Hopefully they won't, and all this will be academic, but there's a not exactly unrealistic path that leads us to not see our name on Selection Sunday, and when that's the case on February 20th, you're kind of on the Bubble. Even if you're on the correct side of it.

[xubrew]

I first started going to games in the mid 70"s.Tay Baker,Schmidt Fieldhouse,Struggling to beat NKU and never beating UC.But you didn't expect them to win.Now we don't expect to lose,at least not 4 in a row.This is frustrating but we'll survive.

It's frustrating, but we're most likely going to end up where we normally do in a typical year.

When we played in the A10, a typical year was us, and maybe one or two other tournament caliber teams, a smattering of NIT teams, and then a collection of teams that would finish in the middle of the Metro Atlantic. Losses hurt more, and wins helped less. But, we won a lot. The games were easy to win.

In Xavier's entire history, we've been a protected seed only three times. A #6 is actually typically good, and we're usually in the #7-#10 range outside of that.

This year, despite the added frustration from losing more games due to playing better teams, we're still right in that typical range. We've also had injuries as well. So, things may seem worse, but they're really on pace to end up the way they typically do as far as what kind of seed we're looking at and what the value of our overall resume is. We have fewer games against sub-tournament caliber teams, but for the most part we've won all of them minus Colorado and Providence.

[GetUp5]

We have four games left, three of which are imminently loseable (we will be underdogs or VERY slight favorites). There is one game in which we will be a moderate favorite (@ DePaul). We HAVE to win at least one of those games.

That, to me, is being on the Bubble. If the Selection Show was today, we'd be in. But it's not. And things could get real tight. Hopefully they won't, and all this will be academic, but there's a not exactly unrealistic path that leads us to not see our name on Selection Sunday, and when that's the case on February 20th, you're kind of on the Bubble. Even if you're on the correct side of it.

The teams hanging around the bubble right now are pretty bad. I could see a scenario with us going 0-5 or 1-4 to end the season (assuming L in 1st round of BET) that would leave us pretty sweaty come selection Sunday. But, I think anything better than 1-4 and we're pretty solidly in the field. If we can't win 2 of the next 5, it might be better if we sit out anyways...

Here are the Last 4 Byes from Bracketology this morning and how we compare (using KenPom metrics)...

#47 Cal - 18-8 (9-5) ZERO top 50 KenPom wins, best win @ #68 USC.
#63 USC - 21-6 (8-6) 2-6 vs top 50, 2 signature wins over #17 SMU and #18 UCLA. No bad losses. Non conference SOS 268 is killing them.
#28 Kansas State - 17-10 (6-8) 3-10 vs top 50, 2 signature wins vs #3 WVA and @ #10 Baylor. No bad losses. Also won @ #20 OK State. Non conference SOS = 309.
#48 - Syracuse - 16-12 (8-7) 5-6 vs top 50, 2 signature wins vs. #19 FSU and #8 UVA. Bad loss to #146 Boston College. Non conference SOS = 232.

#37 Xavier - 18-9 (8-6) 3-7 vs top 50, best wins = neutral vs. #38 Clemson, vs. #30 Wake, @ #23 Creighton. No bad losses. Non conference SOS = 32.

Depending on which rankings the committee has, our record vs the top 50 could be significantly different. In KenPom right now, Utah is at #54, Providence #58, Georgetown #52 and Seton Hall #59. So, 3-7 vs. top 50, but 8-8 vs the top 60.

For reference, Seton Hall is among the last 4 in...

Seton Hall 16-10 (6-8) - 4-7 vs Top 50, Best Wins = @ 78 Iowa, Semi-Home 29 South Carolina, vs. 23 Creighton. No losses outside top 100 (Stanford is 100). Non conference SOS = 207.

[drudy23]

We have four games left, three of which are imminently loseable (we will be underdogs or VERY slight favorites). There is one game in which we will be a moderate favorite (@ DePaul). We HAVE to win at least one of those games.

That, to me, is being on the Bubble. If the Selection Show was today, we'd be in. But it's not. And things could get real tight. Hopefully they won't, and all this will be academic, but there's a not exactly unrealistic path that leads us to not see our name on Selection Sunday, and when that's the case on February 20th, you're kind of on the Bubble. Even if you're on the correct side of it.

This.

[xavierj]

We have four games left, three of which are imminently loseable (we will be underdogs or VERY slight favorites). There is one game in which we will be a moderate favorite (@ DePaul). We HAVE to win at least one of those games.

That, to me, is being on the Bubble. If the Selection Show was today, we'd be in. But it's not. And things could get real tight. Hopefully they won't, and all this will be academic, but there's a not exactly unrealistic path that leads us to not see our name on Selection Sunday, and when that's the case on February 20th, you're kind of on the Bubble. Even if you're on the correct side of it.

On the flip side when Bluiett plays against seton hall and if Xavier plays well, they will be favored in the last three games. All very winnable.

[GoMuskies]

And once we win one or two, we won't be bubbly anymore. And that will be good.

[casualfan]

FWIW Stewart Mandel has us as a 8 seed in his bracket today:

http://www.foxsports.com/college-basketball/story/bracket-watch-ncaa-tournament-bubble-projections-predictions-bracketology-selection-sunday-mandel-022117

[casualfan]

Bubble watch pretty much nails it today IMO:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Bracket Matrix has us on the 7 line:

http://bracketmatrix.com/

[AviatorX]

Bubble watch pretty much nails it today IMO:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Bracket Matrix has us on the 7 line:

http://bracketmatrix.com/

Wait what? You think they nail it while failing to mention that XU's Third Team All-American didn't play in either of those losses?

[GoMuskies]

Wichita State is a really interesting case this year. Their "traditional" resume looks barren, but they'd be at least 5 point favorites on a neutral floor over every other team that's in bubble discussions (based on KenPom and Sagarin predictor ratings). If they lose to Illinois State in St. Loo to finish 29-5, there's a really good chance they get left despite likely being one of the 20 or so best teams.

[xubrew]

Wait what? You think they nail it while failing to mention that XU's Third Team All-American didn't play in either of those losses?

I think so. When they say they consider injuries and suspensions, I think they consider it more in regards to the opponents than to the team itself. In other words, if you beat a team that isn't at full strength, you get less credit for the win. Considering is not the same as disregarding. Hell you can consider something, and then after doing so just decide not to factor it. I wouldn't expect the committee to overlook that in a way that it favors Xavier.

But having said that, i still think we're fine as far as making the field.

[AviatorX]

I think so. When they say they consider injuries and suspensions, I think they consider it more in regards to the opponents than to the team itself. In other words, if you beat a team that isn't at full strength, you get less credit for the win. Considering is not the same as disregarding. Hell you can consider something, and then after doing so just decide not to factor it. I wouldn't expect the committee to overlook that in a way that it favors Xavier.

But having said that, i still think we're fine as far as making the field.

That makes sense from a selection perspective.

But to me, if you say last week's 0-2 was disconcerting without mentioning that one of the best player's in the country was a DNP twice, that's not nailing it. ESPECIALLY when they talk about how the offense was inexplicably so bad against Marquette.

[xubrew]

Wichita State is a really interesting case this year. Their "traditional" resume looks barren, but they'd be at least 5 point favorites on a neutral floor over every other team that's in bubble discussions (based on KenPom and Sagarin predictor ratings). If they lose to Illinois State in St. Loo to finish 29-5, there's a really good chance they get left despite likely being one of the 20 or so best teams.

FWIW, I don't think they get left out in that scenario. It all depends on how the committee evaluates them, but their resume is better than what it appears. The win at Colorado State happened prior to Colorado State losing three starters for the season. The committee should know that. They also have wins at Northern Iowa, Evansville, and Loyola. Those aren't tournament teams, but they're still a combined 28-7 at home outside of playing Wichita State, so those games are harder to win than what they appear. I know the committee used to look at things that way, which is why some people were flabbergasted by some of the selections and seedings that they made. I'm not sure if they do anymore because the people on it have changed, but there is precedent to think that Wichita State is just fine.

TCU and Michigan are "top fifty" teams, but they have a grand total of three road wins between them. I'd argue that it's harder to win at Northern Iowa than it is to beat Michigan or TCU at home. Hell, all but one of the teams Michigan has played on the road has beaten them.

Plus, RPI top forty teams who finish in first place and avoid bad losses almost always get in, which Wichita has done.

In short, I think they're just fine in that scenario.

[xubrew]

That makes sense from a selection perspective.

But to me, if you say last week's 0-2 was disconcerting without mentioning that one of the best player's in the country was a DNP twice, that's not nailing it. ESPECIALLY when they talk about how the offense was inexplicably so bad against Marquette.

Maybe I'm confused. I thought the bubble watch only looked at things from a selection perspective.

[AviatorX]

Maybe I'm confused. I thought the bubble watch only looked at things from a selection perspective.

I just think it's kind of crazy to write several sentences about how shitty Xavier was last week without mentioning that Trevon Bluiett did not play. Is that strange? They even mentioned Sumner being out!

To be clear, I have no problem with where they have Xavier slotted or their overall tournament outlook. Just think it is strange to leave that out.

"Last week was, well, disconcerting. After losing guard Edmond Sumner to a season-ending knee injury, the Musketeers lost by 12 at Providence on Wednesday night and then, three days later, by 22 at Marquette. The Golden Eagles can really score in bunches, but they don't guard well enough to explain XU's 61 points in 67 trips."

Is that an honest writeup of what happened last week? I realize I am nitpicking but it's a slow day.

[casualfan]

Maybe I'm confused. I thought the bubble watch only looked at things from a selection perspective.

It does.

They wrote 4 sentences on the team, all of which I find to be pretty spot on:

#1: Last week was, well, disconcerting

Tough to argue that.

#2: After losing guard Edmond Sumner to a season-ending knee injury, the Musketeers lost by 12 at Providence on Wednesday night and then, three days later, by 22 at Marquette.

All facts

#3: The Golden Eagles can really score in bunches, but they don't guard well enough to explain XU's 61 points in 67 trips.

Again, this was my biggest concern after the game even missing Tre.

#4: Chris Mack's team still has a pretty RPI and SOS and a top-20 noncon schedule to bolster its bid, but its best wins, save Feb. 4 at Creighton, don't inspire much deference to a team that is playing its worst basketball in the closing weeks of the season.

Again, pretty spot on in my opinion.

No, they didn't mention Tre being out, but as you mentioned that's not what this is about. It's about looking at teams and their current standing with regards to the tournament, something that quite frankly Tre's status this past week doesn't have a whole lot to with.

[AviatorX]

It does.

They wrote 4 sentences on the team, all of which I find to be pretty spot on:

#1: Last week was, well, disconcerting

Tough to argue that.

#2: After losing guard Edmond Sumner to a season-ending knee injury, the Musketeers lost by 12 at Providence on Wednesday night and then, three days later, by 22 at Marquette.

All facts

#3: The Golden Eagles can really score in bunches, but they don't guard well enough to explain XU's 61 points in 67 trips.

Again, this was my biggest concern after the game even missing Tre.

#4: Chris Mack's team still has a pretty RPI and SOS and a top-20 noncon schedule to bolster its bid, but its best wins, save Feb. 4 at Creighton, don't inspire much deference to a team that is playing its worst basketball in the closing weeks of the season.

Again, pretty spot on in my opinion.

No, they didn't mention Tre being out, but as you mentioned that's not what this is about. It's about looking at teams and their current standing with regards to the tournament, something that quite frankly Tre's status this past week doesn't have a whole lot to with.

But Sumner's status does?

Maybe I am crazy, but it seems like the absence of one of the better offensive players in the country might have something to do with 61 points in 67 trips.

Would make way more sense to end with something akin to "if Xavier gets Bluiett back and continues this slide, then maybe it is time to worry."

[scoscox]

Not considering injuries in how bad the team is playing is foolish if the injured player is expected to return. Obviously, if a player is out for the remainder, feel free to not factor that in.

[casualfan]

I just think it's kind of crazy to write several sentences about how shitty Xavier was last week without mentioning that Trevon Bluiett did not play. Is that strange? They even mentioned Sumner being out!

To be clear, I have no problem with where they have Xavier slotted or their overall tournament outlook. Just think it is strange to leave that out.

"Last week was, well, disconcerting. After losing guard Edmond Sumner to a season-ending knee injury, the Musketeers lost by 12 at Providence on Wednesday night and then, three days later, by 22 at Marquette. The Golden Eagles can really score in bunches, but they don't guard well enough to explain XU's 61 points in 67 trips."

Is that an honest writeup of what happened last week? I realize I am nitpicking but it's a slow day.

Yes, that is an honest writeup of what happened last week IMO.

Tre or not last week was disconcerting (at least to me).

Tre or not we scored less than a point per possession against one of the worst high major defenses in the country.

Tre or not we are still in position to make the tournament, but the outlook on our ability to do damage once there is murky.

[casualfan]

But Sumner's status does?

Maybe I am crazy, but it seems like the absence of one of the better offensive players in the country might have something to do with 61 points in 67 trips.

Would make way more sense to end with something akin to "if Xavier gets Bluiett back and continues this slide, then maybe it is time to worry."

Your previous post was right. You are nitpicking. Big time.

The article is designed to give a quick glance at teams and what their tournament outlook looks like.

[scoscox]

It does.

They wrote 4 sentences on the team, all of which I find to be pretty spot on:

#1: Last week was, well, disconcerting

Tough to argue that.

#2: After losing guard Edmond Sumner to a season-ending knee injury, the Musketeers lost by 12 at Providence on Wednesday night and then, three days later, by 22 at Marquette.

All facts

#3: The Golden Eagles can really score in bunches, but they don't guard well enough to explain XU's 61 points in 67 trips.

Again, this was my biggest concern after the game even missing Tre.

#4: Chris Mack's team still has a pretty RPI and SOS and a top-20 noncon schedule to bolster its bid, but its best wins, save Feb. 4 at Creighton, don't inspire much deference to a team that is playing its worst basketball in the closing weeks of the season.

Again, pretty spot on in my opinion.

No, they didn't mention Tre being out, but as you mentioned that's not what this is about. It's about looking at teams and their current standing with regards to the tournament, something that quite frankly Tre's status this past week doesn't have a whole lot to with.

Yes it does?!?! I don't see how anyone can look at our performance this last week and not realize the correlation of Tre not playing. Even when Edmond went down, we won games against Seton Hall and Creighton. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that losing Tre had a massive impact on everything we do offensively. To not factor that in when all signs point to him coming back would be obtuse.

You can be disconcerted by our performance last week while still realizing the obvious factor of Trevon's injury playing a huge role. It wouldn't be asking too much of the author or reader. Not mentioning it keeps you from objectively evaluating our performance and the team's chances going forward.

[AviatorX]

Yes, that is an honest writeup of what happened last week IMO.

Tre or not last week was disconcerting (at least to me).

Tre or not we scored less than a point per possession against one of the worst high major defenses in the country.

Tre or not we are still in position to make the tournament, but the outlook on our ability to do damage once there is murky.

Yeah, I'm just not with you on how this is a "Tre or not." I would be panicking if Xavier's offense did that with Tre, but without him, I'm in wait and see mode.

[AviatorX]

Your previous post was right. You are nitpicking. Big time.

The article is designed to give a quick glance at teams and what their tournament outlook looks like.


I mean obviously the whole exercise is nitpicking, but I'm not really sure how it makes sense to write about last week as "Xavier being without Sumner" without mentioning that Tre was also out. That's a huge factor that isn't discussed.

The writeup essentially asked a rhetorical about XU's 61 points in 67 possessions and used it as an indictment of X without noting that X's best player didn't play.

[casualfan]

I mean obviously the whole exercise is nitpicking, but I'm not really sure how it makes sense to write about last week as "Xavier being without Sumner" without mentioning that Tre was also out. That's a huge factor that isn't discussed.

Here is a link to where you can submit feedback. I'm sure Eamonn would be happy to hear your complaints:

http://www.espn.com/sportsnation/mailbag/_/id/34673/college-basketball-nation

[AviatorX]

Here is a link to where you can submit feedback. I'm sure Eamonn would be happy to hear your complaints:

http://www.espn.com/sportsnation/mailbag/_/id/34673/college-basketball-nation

Thanks, I'll be sure to do that. Forgive me for raising something that seemed strange to me.

Until he gets back to me, I'll just continue to wonder how one could write a paragraph about how much Xavier's offense sucked last week and how the team is playing its worst ball of the season right now without mentioning that the team's best player didn't suit up.

[xubrew]

At the end of the day I don't think it matters that much. The actual committee has their own notes and data that they share with each other each week. This is merely a guy who isn't on the committee offering up a snapshot of all the teams. It's an approximation either way.

I was just pointing out that while the committee does look at and consider injuries and suspensions, I don't think they consider them the way most people think that they do. In the case of Creighton, they know they lost Mo Watson. When Villanova beat them, they had Mo Watson. When we beat them they did not have Mo Watson. Nova will get more credit than we do. That's how they look at it. What they do not do (at least not nearly to the point that most people seem to think that they do) is completely disregard everything Creighton did when they had Mo Watson and only look at what they've done since then.

[xubrew]

Here is a list of all injuries in all games for all teams. This isn't exactly what the committee uses, but each committee member is in charge of monitoring between three and four conferences and is supposed to supply this information every week when they report. If a game was considered to be a key win for a team, then they note these injuries if the team they beat wasn't at full strength.

http://www.donbest.com/ncaab/injuries/

[D-West & PO-Z]

Wait what? You think they nail it while failing to mention that XU's Third Team All-American didn't play in either of those losses?

Yeah, ha, I kept waiting for that.

I thought it was going to say something along the lines of not freaking out and def mention Trevon.

[D-West & PO-Z]

But Sumner's status does?

Maybe I am crazy, but it seems like the absence of one of the better offensive players in the country might have something to do with 61 points in 67 trips.

Would make way more sense to end with something akin to "if Xavier gets Bluiett back and continues this slide, then maybe it is time to worry."

My thoughts exactly.

[D-West & PO-Z]

At the end of the day I don't think it matters that much. The actual committee has their own notes and data that they share with each other each week. This is merely a guy who isn't on the committee offering up a snapshot of all the teams. It's an approximation either way.

I was just pointing out that while the committee does look at and consider injuries and suspensions, I don't think they consider them the way most people think that they do. In the case of Creighton, they know they lost Mo Watson. When Villanova beat them, they had Mo Watson. When we beat them they did not have Mo Watson. Nova will get more credit than we do. That's how they look at it. What they do not do (at least not nearly to the point that most people seem to think that they do) is completely disregard everything Creighton did when they had Mo Watson and only look at what they've done since then.

They dont completely disregard it but I think you are selling short how much that will affect Creighton's overall seeding. I have to look back but I seem to remember sevral instances where a team lost one of their better players for the year and either didnt prove or didnt have enough games left to prove that they could do well without that player and they did not get seeded as well as they would have otherwise.

I know UC lost a 1 seed when Martin was injured in 2000. Cant think of others off the top of my head I'll have to look.

[D-West & PO-Z]

On a side note I went to look at 2000 ncaa tourney field. Some very good high profile coaches were coaches at smaller schools in the tourney that year:

Jay Wright at Hofstra
Bill Self at Tulsa (they beat UC)
Gregg Marshall at Winthrop

[GoMuskies]

On a side note I went to look at 2000 ncaa tourney field. Some very good high profile coaches were coaches at smaller schools in the tourney that year:

Jay Wright at Hofstra
Bill Self at Tulsa (they beat UC)
Gregg Marshall at Winthrop

Quinn Snyder at Mizzou! Okay, he's a good NBA coach and a shitty college coach.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Quinn Snyder at Mizzou! Okay, he's a good NBA coach and 's shitty college coach.

Ha he might not be the worst college coach in the field in the top seeds either.

[STL_XUfan]

Quinn Snyder at Mizzou! Okay, he's a good NBA coach and a shitty college coach.
The only things Quinn Snyder loves more than winning is coeds and cocaine

[Juice]

The only things Quinn Snyder loves more than winning is coeds and cocaine

As long as those things are in your top 3, you can't complain. No matter the order.

https://media.giphy.com/media/L4TYWQn8rALRu/giphy.gif

[D-West & PO-Z]

Xavier [18-10 (8-7), RPI: 22, SOS: 10] One Xavier fan took to Twitter this week to accuse the Watch of "#poorreporting" (at least it's a slight upgrade from "#FAKENEWS," which we appreciate) for failing to mention that the Mountaineers' losses at Providence and Marquette last week came without star guard Trevon Bluiett in the lineup. Fair enough. The only problem? Bluiett returned to the floor Wednesday and scored 14 points on 12 shots in a loss at Seton Hall, their fourth-straight defeat (Villanova started the losing streak). Injuries to Bluiett and, more seriously, guard Edmond Sumner have made that stretch especially brutal. Chris Mack's team has a chance to get one back when Butler -- fresh off its super-impressive road win at Nova this week -- visits Sunday. In the meantime, Xavier's seed may be slipping, but it's not in anything like genuine bubble danger yet.

HAHA, which one of you was this????

They called us the Mountaineers again, I think this one was intentional though!

[AviatorX]

Xavier [18-10 (8-7), RPI: 22, SOS: 10] One Xavier fan took to Twitter this week to accuse the Watch of "#poorreporting" (at least it's a slight upgrade from "#FAKENEWS," which we appreciate) for failing to mention that the Mountaineers' losses at Providence and Marquette last week came without star guard Trevon Bluiett in the lineup. Fair enough. The only problem? Bluiett returned to the floor Wednesday and scored 14 points on 12 shots in a loss at Seton Hall, their fourth-straight defeat (Villanova started the losing streak). Injuries to Bluiett and, more seriously, guard Edmond Sumner have made that stretch especially brutal. Chris Mack's team has a chance to get one back when Butler -- fresh off its super-impressive road win at Nova this week -- visits Sunday. In the meantime, Xavier's seed may be slipping, but it's not in anything like genuine bubble danger yet.

HAHA, which one of you was this????

They called us the Mountaineers again, I think this one was intentional though!

It wasn't me, despite Casualfan's insistence.

[HenryMuto]

Time to panic........Must win against Marquette.

[AviatorX]

Time to panic........Must win against Marquette.

Lunardi's first four out is Kansas State, Wake, Clemson, and Tennessee. Does losing a game to a protected seed move Xavier behind those teams? No.

The bubble does not develop in a vacuum of Xavier sucking the past few weeks. It's a lot harder for some of these mediocre teams to play themselves in than it is for Xavier to play themselves out.

36 teams are going to get at large bigs. Try to count 36 and not have Xavier in there right now.

[Xville]

Lunardi's first four out is Kansas State, Wake, Clemson, and Tennessee. Does losing a game to a protected seed move Xavier behind those teams? No.

The bubble does not develop in a vacuum of Xavier sucking the past few weeks. It's a lot harder for some of these mediocre teams to play themselves in than it is for Xavier to play themselves out.

36 teams are going to get at large bigs. Try to count 36 and not have Xavier in there right now.

Right now x is fine. Lose the next two and this team is going to the nit without a deep run in msg. 18-13 overall and 8-10 in conference won't cut it.

[GoMuskies]

Lunardi dropped us to a 9 seed in SLC this week. Can we just sign up for that now and not play any more games?

[xavierj]

Lunardi dropped us to a 9 seed in SLC this week. Can we just sign up for that now and not play any more games?

No they need to drop one more spot. The 8/9 game sucks.

[GoMuskies]

No they need to drop one more spot. The 8/9 game sucks.

I'll take any NCAA Tournament game. And 8/9 is fine with me. The lower the number the better. Always.

[XU3232]

At this point I'm really hoping we can slide to an 11 seed and still get in. MUCH better shot of getting to the 2nd weekend with that seed vs an 8/9 seed.

[GoMuskies]

At this point I'm really hoping we can slide to an 11 seed and still get in. MUCH better shot of getting to the 2nd weekend with that seed vs an 8/9 seed.

Yeah, that 11 seed probably comes with a trip to Dayton. No thank you. Gimme the 8/9 and let's get our shot.

But again, we'd be underdogs on a neutral court to every single at-large team right now, so I don't feel confident of winning 1, much less the 3 it would likely take to get to the second weekend as an 11 seed.

[xu82]

Lunardi dropped us to a 9 seed in SLC this week. Can we just sign up for that now and not play any more games?

That works for me!

[bourbonman]

Lunardi dropped us to a 9 seed in SLC this week. Can we just sign up for that now and not play any more games?

And he has 7 teams from the Big East, 3 of the last 4 in. Then he has Seton Hall and Marquette playing each other in a play in game and Providence in another in the same region. On top of all this he has Butler trending DOWN, after winning road games at Xavier and Villanova. Strange, IMHO.

[markchal]

Yeah, that 11 seed probably comes with a trip to Dayton. No thank you. Gimme the 8/9 and let's get our shot.

But again, we'd be underdogs on a neutral court to every single at-large team right now, so I don't feel confident of winning 1, much less the 3 it would likely take to get to the second weekend as an 11 seed.

Could not agree with this post any more.

[XMuskieFTW]

Of the 50 brackets today, we have a composite average seed on bracketmatrix of 9.12. That puts us around the third 9 seed.

[drudy23]

I'd take a 10 in a heartbeat.

[BMoreX]

I'd take a 10 in a heartbeat.

Same here.

[XU3232]

Yeah, that 11 seed probably comes with a trip to Dayton. No thank you. Gimme the 8/9 and let's get our shot.

But again, we'd be underdogs on a neutral court to every single at-large team right now, so I don't feel confident of winning 1, much less the 3 it would likely take to get to the second weekend as an 11 seed.

Everyone has their own opinion... I get that. I'm just saying I think it's easier to get to the second weekend as an 11.

[94GRAD]

Everyone has their own opinion... I get that. I'm just saying I think it's easier to get to the second weekend as an 11.

Looks like it's easier to get to the second weekend as a 10 or 12 seed.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1584136-sweet-16-success-1-seeds-2-seeds-and-8-seeds

[HenryMuto]

Better win the last 2 games or it could be outside looking in with a 1st round BE tournament loss.

Really need to win the last 2 games for 2 reasons...one you lock in a bid regardless of conf tournament and two you lock in a top 6 seed in the BE tourney avoiding Nova and Butler.

[GoMuskies]

Today's edition still has Xavier in the "Should be in" category. I think on Thursday (assuming it updates again) we're moving either way. Either to locks with a win or "Work Left to Do" with a loss.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Today's edition still has Xavier in the "Should be in" category. I think on Thursday (assuming it updates again) we're moving either way. Either to locks with a win or "Work Left to Do" with a loss.

Yeah I'd imagine that as well.

[muskieindent]

And he has 7 teams from the Big East, 3 of the last 4 in. Then he has Seton Hall and Marquette playing each other in a play in game and Providence in another in the same region. On top of all this he has Butler trending DOWN, after winning road games at Xavier and Villanova. Strange, IMHO.

Didn't think teams from the same conference could play each other until the Sweet 16 ? I'll still be somewhat surprised if the BE gets 7 teams in.

[sgarcia]

Didn't think teams from the same conference could play each other until the Sweet 16 ? I'll still be somewhat surprised if the BE gets 7 teams in.

I think that rule changed to you can't play your own conference until the 2nd round but I'm guessing since it's a "play in" game that rule doesn't apply.

[XUMIOH12]

I think that rule changed to you can't play your own conference until the 2nd round but I'm guessing since it's a "play in" game that rule doesn't apply.

"Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regions if they are seeded on the first four lines.

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional final if they played each other three or more times during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference shall not meet prior to the regional semifinals if they played each other twice during the regular season and conference tournament.

Teams from the same conference may play each other as early as the second round if they played no more than once during the regular season and conference tournament.

Any principle can be relaxed if two or more teams from the same conference are among the last four at-large seeded teams participating in the First Four."

That is from the NCAA's website in January, 2017.

[nasdadjr]

Anyone still think I'm nuts about saying we are not dancing?

[AviatorX]

Anyone still think I'm nuts about saying we are not dancing?

I mean, FS1 literally ran a graphic during this game listing X as a lock.

[muethibp]

If the eye test has any meaning, X is not making it.

[Irishjohn68]

I don't see how Xavier is a lock for a bid. 6 straight loses and I'm not sure X can beat DePaul this weekend. NIT here we come.

[AviatorX]

I think if X loses the next 2, they won't make it, but I'm telling you guys, try to put together a list of 36 at large worthy teams, and then remove the highest team on your list from each conference. It's tough.

[xu82]

As much as this sucks (and it DOES), remember when we generally always sucked? Young guys may not. This is disappointing because we are so used to winning. We had a shit storm this year, and struggled coming out of the tail spin. A little more hoops left this year, then probably the best class ever coming in next year. I can't bitch about that. Even UNC missed the tourney a few years ago. We are spoiled if we complain.

[whopper]

you want your shot and even a play in would be welcome. Losing Sumner and Davis (sad) mean there is nobody to stop penetration at all (and I mean at all)so we give up easy 3s or layups. Because we have no penetration(Goodin can bully his way in at times but that is not penetrating) we get zero easy shots. No penetration means we are starting and maintaining our office from the 3 point line which causes these pick six turnovers. Quickness is everything now in basketball. Good luck to X against Depaul. Bluiett still looks hurt but have 15/8 game tonight that was the quietest 15/8 I have ever seen.

[mistabeecee41]

officially in lunardis last 4 in. shoutout to everybody on this site who claimed we were locks.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

The people who said we were locks did not envision that this team would lose six straight games. Just as Mack said, this team has no fight left. We are out.

[GoMuskies]

Just have to beat DePaul twice and we can get our free trip to Dayton. Should be simple enough.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Just have to beat DePaul twice and we can get our free trip to Dayton. Should be simple enough.

If we beat Depaul twice I think we are in and avoid the play in. I know theres not much credit for beating them but it gets us to 20 wins and we have no bad losses on the season. Not a good resume by any means but think it would get us a 10 seed. I could be way off based though. A lot will obviously depend on what other teams do as well. Sucks to be in a position now of rooting against and being interested in the results of other teams.

[RetireFiftyTu]

The way I see it there are about 18 teams that are up for the last 10 at-large spots.

[Xavier]

Yeah, we have to beat Depaul twice and we are in (not play-in, either).

[GetUp5]

I know this is a terrible thing to say, but most people I've talked have already chalked up a W @ DePaul.

What makes anyone think this team can beat ANYONE on the road? Tough to beat the same team twice in 5 days, especially when neither game is at home. One loss to DePaul and we are toast.

[AviatorX]

I know this is a terrible thing to say, but most people I've talked have already chalked up a W @ DePaul.

What makes anyone think this team can beat ANYONE on the road? Tough to beat the same team twice in 5 days, especially when neither game is at home. One loss to DePaul and we are toast.

I agree with you. At the same time, DePaul is a MAJOR step down in competition from the last 6 games, all of which were against teams that at this point look like they are dancing. Losing all 6 was a reverse NCAA title run in that way.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Yeah I think X actually loses to DePaul. It's senior night and DePaul gave us a good game at the tas. It just wasn't our year and it hurts but we will be back.

[Xaveriana]

Didn't see this posted, but may have missed it. Thanks BJ for the info.
If we beat DePaul Saturday and face/beat them in the BE tournament, our last 3 wins will all be against DePaul (2/8, 3/4, 3/8).
Bunch of if's in there, but sad.

[xubrew]

Didn't see this posted, but may have missed it. Thanks BJ for the info.
If we beat DePaul Saturday and face/beat them in the BE tournament, our last 3 wins will all be against DePaul (2/8, 3/4, 3/8).
Bunch of if's in there, but sad.

There just isn't a good way to spin that, is there?

[Xaveriana]

There just isn't a good way to spin that, is there?

Not really. I guess it is better than losing to them 3 times. :-|

[xubrew]

Xavier is not on the bubble. Good grief.

We're not a lock, at least not how I would define it. A lock to me means that you can lose every remaining game and still make it. But if the season ended today Xavier would be wearing white in the round of 64. I don't consider that to be on the bubble.

I was wrong. We're screwed. I've been wrong about pretty much everything this season. Back in November before things got started I said I thought Baylor was going to be good. That was about the only thing I got right. After six straight losses things aren't looking so good. None of the losses was individually bad, but when you add all six of them together it's bad.

[drudy23]

I can't fathom how we got to this point where we are going to be sweating next Sunday...but here we are.

[GoMuskies]

I can't fathom how we got to this point where we are going to be sweating next Sunday...but here we are.

Maybe in a week and 8 hours Xavier will be fresh off beating Butler for its third straight win, and we can stop sweating and start thinking about how we're going to pound North Carolina as an 8 seed in the round of 32.

[STL_XUfan]

I was wrong. We're screwed. I've been wrong about pretty much everything this season. Back in November before things got started I said I thought Baylor was going to be good. That was about the only thing I got right. After six straight losses things aren't looking so good. None of the losses was individually bad, but when you add all six of them together it's bad.

Actually, you were spot on. You said that we weren't a lock because if we lost out shit could go sideways. Unfortunately shit has gone sideways.

[GoMuskies]

Unfortunately shit has gone sideways.

I wish it had gone sideways. It's circled the crapper and gone straight down into the sewer.

[Xaveriana]

When I sat at Cintas last night starring at the scoreboard, I started thinking about what went wrong this year.
Some words came to mind that are uncharacteristic of past Xavier teams:

- questionable talent/skill
- lack of depth
- too many disruptions
- inconsistent leadership
- questionable preparation
- individual before team
- undisciplined/lazy
- weak-minded
- worn-out

I am typically the first to blame Mack, but I'm shocking people by not doing that. Actually feel sorry for him. He looks worn-out, lost just like the players. Believe he is a good recruiter and tried to put the best team on the floor at the beginning of the year. Many of us thought we were suspect early in the year, especially inside. Many disruptions transpired that have severely impacted level of talent, depth, and ability to execute Xavier Basketball. Players are playing as individuals trying to do too much to help the team. They have lost their way. Mack has lost his way. Unfortunately this season is lost regardless if we make the NCAA tournament or not. My hope is that the coaches and players learn from this year and that is doesn't have a negative ripple effect on subsequent years. The future is bright. Love Xavier and the Big East.

[xavierj]

officially in lunardis last 4 in. shoutout to everybody on this site who claimed we were locks.

Palm still has them as a 10 today. Xavier has 4 wins against other tournament teams and has the 7th toughest SOS, with no bad losses. Last year Iowa lost 6 of last 7 and then first round of big 10 tourney against a bad Illionois team and got a 7 seed. That will get rewarded against the other teams in contention this played weak schedules, as long as Xavier beats DePaul twice and that's a big if.

[xavbball]

People are crazy to think this team is a lock. If we win our next two against DePaul, then our last ten game record is 3-7. All three wins against DePaul. You can say our RPI and SOS is going to save us, but having to play DePaul 2x (currently RPI #224) isn't going to improve those numbers.

[casualfan]

Palm still has them as a 10 today. Xavier has 4 wins against other tournament teams and has the 7th toughest SOS, with no bad losses. Last year Iowa lost 6 of last 7 and then first round of big 10 tourney against a bad Illionois team and got a 7 seed. That will get rewarded against the other teams in contention this played weak schedules, as long as Xavier beats DePaul twice and that's a big if.

That Iowa team did not lose 6 of their last 7.

They lost 5 of their last 7 and never lost more than 4 in a row.

They also had not lost a significant contributor that was around for the good portions of their resume and had terrific computer numbers (22 in kenpom).

[Mrs. Garrett]

I miss when they were gangsters. Not thugs, but tough guys on the basketball court.

[HenryMuto]

Time to panic........Must win against Marquette.


Lunardi's first four out is Kansas State, Wake, Clemson, and Tennessee. Does losing a game to a protected seed move Xavier behind those teams? No.

The bubble does not develop in a vacuum of Xavier sucking the past few weeks. It's a lot harder for some of these mediocre teams to play themselves in than it is for Xavier to play themselves out.

36 teams are going to get at large bigs. Try to count 36 and not have Xavier in there right now.

Like I said time to panic.

[xubrew]

That Iowa team did not lose 6 of their last 7.

They lost 5 of their last 7 and never lost more than 4 in a row.

They also had not lost a significant contributor that was around for the good portions of their resume and had terrific computer numbers (22 in kenpom).

They also had multiple wins away from home against protected seeds.

[AviatorX]

Like I said time to panic.

No, you said time to panic before the Marquette game, so this isn't like you said at all. Back to Rupp Rafters.

[xavierj]

They also had multiple wins away from home against protected seeds.

Brew you can probably find this but would Xavier be the first team left out of the NCAA tourney with at least 18 wins, a top 10 SOS, a top 40 RPI, and from a top 5 conference?

[Nigel Tufnel]

Thought crossed my mind today...if X doesn't make the tourney, will they be playing OSU or IU in the first round of the NIT?

[LA Muskie]

Brew you can probably find this but would Xavier be the first team left out of the NCAA tourney with at least 18 wins, a top 10 SOS, a top 40 RPI, and from a top 5 conference?

Would we still have a Top 40 RPI with a loss to DePaul? And how does our SOS project with 2 more games against them?


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[LA Muskie]

Thought crossed my mind today...if X doesn't make the tourney, will they be playing OSU or IU in the first round of the NIT?

I seriously doubt we would accept an NIT invitation.


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[Nigel Tufnel]

I seriously doubt we would accept an NIT invitation.


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You serious, Clark?

[LA Muskie]

You serious, Clark?

Very. I would be shocked if we accepted an NIT invite if it comes to that. Cintas in unavailable and this team is gassed.


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[GoMuskies]

I think we'd play in the NIT. May as well get Tyrique and Q more minutes against quality competition. Gates, too.

[GoMuskies]

Sure hope we don't have to find out.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Like Muskie, I hope we don't have to find out...but I'm not sure how I'd feel if X turned down an NIT invite. Guess we'll just cross that bridge...

[xukeith]

I am too lazy too look but last year, there was a site floating around that had roughly a spreadsheet with every bracket expert's guess. and averaged everyone's guess.
Does that site exist this year?

[GoMuskies]

I am too lazy too look but last year, there was a site floating around that had roughly a spreadsheet with every bracket expert's guess. and averaged everyone's guess.
Does that site exist this year?

Yes, bracketmstrix.com

[xukeith]

I miss when they were gangsters. Not thugs, but tough guys on the basketball court.

Oh I wish we had a Tu Holloway

[xukeith]

You serious, Clark?

No more than 3000 would show up.
NIT= Not Interested Tourney

[xubrew]

Brew you can probably find this but would Xavier be the first team left out of the NCAA tourney with at least 18 wins, a top 10 SOS, a top 40 RPI, and from a top 5 conference?

Don't even need to look this up, but yes. It happened to Florida State one year. It was either 2007 or 2008. I don't know about the top ten SOS, but it was top twenty. They had 20 wins, had a win at Duke, and were left out. They only had one other road win, and that year the committee was big on that.

Didn't Jay Bilas go off about it and rail about how they belonged in over Xavier, and years later the XU internet universe was still in a tizzy about it?

[mid major]

I seriously doubt we would accept an NIT invitation.


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I thought we couldn't turn down an NIT invite. Someone had mentioned this on the other board. Does anyone here know for sure?

[XUMIOH12]

I thought we couldn't turn down an NIT invite. Someone had mentioned this on the other board. Does anyone here know for sure?

I mean its the National Invitation Tournament, not the National Mandate Tournament. Of course Xavier could turn it down, it's not all that uncommon.

[casualfan]

I mean its the National Invitation Tournament, not the National Mandate Tournament. Of course Xavier could turn it down, it's not all that uncommon.

Unless something has changed Xavier has already decided if theyll play or not:

http://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-basketball-men/article44411217.html

[xavierj]

Don't even need to look this up, but yes. It happened to Florida State one year. It was either 2007 or 2008. I don't know about the top ten SOS, but it was top twenty. They had 20 wins, had a win at Duke, and were left out. They only had one other road win, and that year the committee was big on that.

Didn't Jay Bilas go off about it and rail about how they belonged in over Xavier, and years later the XU internet universe was still in a tizzy about it?

Florida state did not meet what I had put up there. If Xavier ends up with a top 15 SOS (7 currently), at least 18 wins, top 50 RPi and from a top 5 conference and does not make it, will they be the first not to do so with those credentials? The NCAA is supposed to reward teams for playing good none conference schedules. So if Xavier decided to play the majority of their games at home and added say 4 buy games and decided against playing the Utah's, Baylor's, Cincinnati's and Colorado's and added say three more wins to be 21-8, wouldn that make them more attactive to the committee? I mean the teams in the big east prior to Xavier would do that all of the time. They would play shit, run up big win totals and then go 8-10, 9-9 in conference and get a 6 or 7 seed.

[GoMuskies]

As expected, ESPN Bubble Watch has demoted the Muskies from "Should be in" to "Work left to do". Hopefully our boys get their work done tomorrow and Wednesday (at least).

[SM#24]

I mean its the National Invitation Tournament, not the National Mandate Tournament. Of course Xavier could turn it down, it's not all that uncommon.
It would be very, very uncommon. Yes, bids have been turned down in the past, but I'm willing to bet the acceptance rate is 98%-99% or more.

[gladdenguy]

As expected, ESPN Bubble Watch has demoted the Muskies from "Should be in" to "Work left to do". Hopefully our boys get their work done tomorrow and Wednesday (at least).

Palm also said this could be a short stay on the bubble for Xavier if they won tomorrow. Meaning they would be off it again. I'm sure Palm does not realize they would play Depaul again on Wednesday.

XAVIER (18-12, 8-9, 7TH BIGE ) | RPI/RANK: 0.5967/32 | SOS/RANK: 0.6008/7
Xavier logo OPPONENT'S CBSSPORTS.COM RPI RANK NO. 1-25 NO. 26-50 NO. 51-100 NO. 101-200 NO. 201+
W-L Record vs. Ranked Teams 0-6 3-2 5-3 8-1 2-0
OUTLOOK
We welcome Xavier to the bubble, although now that I say that, nobody that once appeared to be comfortably in wants to be welcomed here. The Musketeers are tanking. They have lost six in a row to fall to 18-12. They have played a good schedule, so they just might be able to survive losing out, but I would not count on it. Especially since that means a loss at DePaul. This may just be a brief stop on the bubble for Xavier.

[XMuskieFTW]

According to rpi wizard, two DePaul wins and a butler loss would put us at an expected RPI of 36 with a SOS of 12.

[gladdenguy]

According to rpi wizard, two DePaul wins and a butler loss would put us at an expected RPI of 36 with a SOS of 12.

I think they would be in with that.....at least a play in game. The only thing that sucks is I don't see this team beating Depaul twice....once on the road and once on a neutral floor.

[XMuskieFTW]

I think they would be in with that.....at least a play in game. The only thing that sucks is I don't see this team beating Depaul twice....once on the road and once on a neutral floor.

To be fair tomorrow will be a neutral environment. I think this team will do it. Gaston should be able to own the paint. We need our seniors to go into senior mode. Bernard has shown some nice things the last few games.

[Wheelhouse]

Not sure if someone posted this but Lunardi has us in the "Last Four In" category.

http://www.espn.com/espn/now?nowId=21-0629407054745837094-4

Hard to believe how bad this season has gotten.

[paulxu]

And Dance Card has us safely in.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[casualfan]

And Dance Card has us safely in.

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Dance card doesnt take into account eds injury but the committee will.

[xubrew]

Florida state did not meet what I had put up there. If Xavier ends up with a top 15 SOS (7 currently), at least 18 wins, top 50 RPi and from a top 5 conference and does not make it, will they be the first not to do so with those credentials? The NCAA is supposed to reward teams for playing good none conference schedules. So if Xavier decided to play the majority of their games at home and added say 4 buy games and decided against playing the Utah's, Baylor's, Cincinnati's and Colorado's and added say three more wins to be 21-8, wouldn that make them more attactive to the committee? I mean the teams in the big east prior to Xavier would do that all of the time. They would play shit, run up big win totals and then go 8-10, 9-9 in conference and get a 6 or 7 seed.

If you're looking for trivia that is that specific then I really don't know. That Florida State team always comes to mind as a top 40 RPI/top 20 SOS team that was left out. There have been some others, but not from top five conferences. At least not that I know of.

It's obvious you've already decided what you think the committee is going to do. Maybe you're right. FWIW I think Xavier will make it if they win the next two games against DePaul, but I really don't know. A few years ago, when the Atlantic Ten got six teams in and we were in the play-in game, I pretty much knew exactly what the committee was going to do. I don't know anymore. The people on the committee are different and different people value different things. I don't really know what these people are going to value the way I have at times before.

3-8 on the road is potentially an issue. The win at Creighton is good, but

Having six straight losses with a depleted roster that will likely still be depleted when the tournament starts is an issue.

Wins at home against Wake, Seton Hall, Providence, and Utah are okay, but they lose their luster when you realize those four teams are a combined 14-27 on the road. The committee from three years ago would have basically given us zero credit for those wins. But, maybe this committee will value them more.

If you're looking for assurance, I have no idea. I can see reasons to leave us out. I can see reasons to put us in. I have no idea what they'll decide to do.

[paulxu]

Dance card as of last night:

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

X, Seton Hall, Providence and Marquette all win.

[muskiefan82]

7 of 10 BE teams in the dance would be awesome.

[Grizzx12]

I still think there is work to be done to feel comfortable on selection day but here is an interesting Big East article I just found that's from today.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/march-madness-2017-big-east-tournament-field-is-set-seven-could-go-dancing/

[xudash]

I still think there is work to be done to feel comfortable on selection day but here is an interesting Big East article I just found that's from today.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/march-madness-2017-big-east-tournament-field-is-set-seven-could-go-dancing/

Premier S16 dark �� !!!

[xubrew]

I still think there is work to be done to feel comfortable on selection day but here is an interesting Big East article I just found that's from today.

http://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/march-madness-2017-big-east-tournament-field-is-set-seven-could-go-dancing/

Beating DePaul won't put us in if we're not in already, although losing to them could certainly knock us out. If we still have work to do and need to do more than simply hold serve, then we'll have to beat Butler.

[OTRMUSKIE]

Beat De Paul and we are dancing as a 10 seed. Lose and we are a 11 in PIG. That's is all you need the know. I don't care what anybody thinks x needs to do. I'm telling you what is going to happen.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Beat De Paul and we are dancing as a 10 seed. Lose and we are a 11 in PIG. That's is all you need the know. I don't care what anybody thinks x needs to do. I'm telling you what is going to happen.

I actually agree. We shall see soon though.