XU @ UC Betting Line

[Nigel Tufnel]

What do you guys think it will be? I'm really interested to see where it will open and be at game time. I honestly have no clue what it will be. If I had to guess, maybe UC -1.5? If it comes out higher than UC -2.5 and stays at or above that, I'll be worried. If it comes out at even or X favored, I'll feel more confident.

Thoughts?

[xu82]

All possible options scare me. Eyore calls me a "chicken shit", which I find rude, but it's fairly accurate.

[Juice]

What do you guys think it will be? I'm really interested to see where it will open and be at game time. I honestly have no clue what it will be. If I had to guess, maybe UC -1.5? If it comes out higher than UC -2.5 and stays at or above that, I'll be worried. If it comes out at even or X favored, I'll feel more confident.

Thoughts?

UC -5 is my guess

[Harryfe]

Uc -8

[D-West & PO-Z]

I'm guessing UC -3.5

Maybe -4 think it will be at least -2.5

[Nigel Tufnel]

UC -5 is my guess

You think it will be that high? Wow. That's surprising. Maybe it will be. My prediction is that the line will be a lot shorter than people think. But I'm not always right.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Uc -8

Ummm.....no way.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I don't suck at gambling. Not great either. But X catching 3.5 to 4. Wow. I may be way off base...guess I'll stick with UC -1:5 and anything more than that is value for X.

[Nigel Tufnel]

I'm guessing UC -3.5

Maybe -4 think it will be at least -2.5

You may be right here. Probably 3.5. IMHO, a gift. A good ML bet. Good value. I'm predicting UC 2 or under. Think Vegas will be on X side. I think the line will be shorter than most expect.

[GoMuskies]

Sagarin says it should be 6. UC is 3 points better and gets 3 for home court. So I'll say it's UC -5.

[XMuskieFTW]

I'm guessing UC -3.5

Maybe -4 think it will be at least -2.5

I agree. I think neutral court we'd be favored by about 1 so - 2.5 to - 4 seems about right.

[Emp]

RPI Forecast seems to get the opening lines pretty close. I'd say X +5 is close.

The interesting number will be the over/under. UC's scoring average is belied by the fact that they haven't broken 70 against any decent defenses. I'd be surprised at any number over 139, and think it's more likely 135 range.

[Juice]

I don't suck at gambling. Not great either. But X catching 3.5 to 4. Wow. I may be way off base...guess I'll stick with UC -1:5 and anything more than that is value for X.

The average is three points for home court advantage. So if it's a pick em it would be -3, I'm then adding a few points for UC being a slight favorite.

I have no idea if I'll be right but that's my thinking.

[xukeith]

I am giving 6 points to XU for a slab of Montgomery Inn ribs. I hope I lose my bet and have to pay up!

[bleedXblue]

Uc -8

LOL, more idiocy

I'll go with UC -4

[MuskieXU]

Uc -4.5
o/u 141

[bearcatalyst]

I'd guess UC -4.5
o/u right at 140

[Lloyd Braun]

Uc -4.5
o/u 141

Is this a guess or actual line?

[muethibp]

Uc -6

[THRILLHOUSE]

I'm thinking it will be UC -4 or -5

[MuskieXU]

Is this a guess or actual line?

Sorry, guess. Actual line will probably be released tomorrow evening.

[chico]

Thinking it will be X - 3 1/2 or -4.

[ReturnOfTheMack]

Thinking it will be X - 3 1/2 or -4.

Not a chance in HELL! You honestly think Xavier will be a 2 possession favorite? Anyway, the overall consensus on the board has been about UC (-4). I actually think the line will be a little tighter. Probably UC favored by 1.5 - 3. Just an educated guess. We'll find out in about 24 hours.

[chico]

Not a chance in HELL! You honestly think Xavier will be a 2 possession favorite? Anyway, the overall consensus on the board has been about UC (-4). I actually think the line will be a little tighter. Probably UC favored by 1.5 - 3. Just an educated guess. We'll find out in about 24 hours.

Sorry - meant that X would be getting the points.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Yahoo has it opening at UC -3.5.

[ReturnOfTheMack]

Yahoo has it opening at UC -3.5.

I wouldn't be surprised to see that line tick upwards in the next few hours, even into early tomorrow morning. The betting public, aka the dumb $, will see UC's record, their higher ranking, playing at home, and have Xavier's recent three game skid fresh in their minds. All of that will lead to an inordinate amount of the public $ placed on UC to cover. When/if that line gets up around 5 or more, then the sharks move in.

[GetUp5]

Vegas and KenPom seem to be eerily aligned these days.

KenPom has UC winning 70-64. UC -6 and total of 134.

[xavierj]

Vegas and KenPom seem to be eerily aligned these days.

KenPom has UC winning 70-64. UC -6 and total of 134.

Vegas has it -3 1/2 UC but no o/u yet. Xavier will win though. Just better with the better players.

[GIMMFD]

Vegas has it -3 1/2 UC but no o/u yet. Xavier will win though. Just better with the better players.

I like your confidence. I sure as hell hope you're right, I'm more nervous for this one than I've been in a few years. I just don't know what to make of our team yet, I haven't seen them put together a complete game yet, and until then, I'm always going to be weary.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Well that escalated quickly, I go back to sportsinsights and now it's UC -6. Can't wait to see % of bets placed on each side and line movement. Just for some perspective...

X was +4.5 @ Baylor, +8 @ Nova and +4 @ Butler.

If the line goes up from 6, I will be surprised. But if it does...I will likely layoff betting the points and just put a smaller wager on the X Money line. Be happy to throw down a few dollars on X at over 2/1 odds against a team they have owned in recent history.

[GoMuskies]

Matches Sagarin Predictor exactly. Hard to be too surprised by that.

[vee4xu]

Well that escalated quickly, I go back to sportsinsights and now it's UC -6. Can't wait to see % of bets placed on each side and line movement. Just for some perspective...

X was +4.5 @ Baylor, +8 @ Nova and +4 @ Butler.

If the line goes up from 6, I will be surprised. But if it does...I will likely layoff betting the points and just put a smaller wager on the X Money line. Be happy to throw down a few dollars on X at over 2/1 odds against a team they have owned in recent history.

Not being a bettor of this sort, what does a line going up this much, so soon usually indicate? Is it usually fans betting early? Is there anything that indicates who is doing the early betting that would move a line, or is it simply pro bettors looking to take advantage of what they deem to be an early discrepancy in their minds?

Just curiosity.

[Harryfe]

It could mean they have come upon recent news. The most likely thing would be Ed's shoulder. Also some bettors may have lost some faith in X after losing 3 in a row, having a tough game at home against a mediocre Big East team and perhaps a team chemistry problem after the MD fiasco. Just guessing.

[American X]

It could mean they have come upon recent news. The most likely thing would be Ed's shoulder. Also some bettors may have lost some faith in X after losing 3 in a row, having a tough game at home against a mediocre Big East team and perhaps a team chemistry problem after the MD fiasco. Just guessing.

Please stop guessing.

And the Maryland fiasco was in 2003, perplexing why that is relevant.

[GOX]

I would think that MD was a reference to Myles Davis, not Maryland.

[Harryfe]

Please stop guessing.

And the Maryland fiasco was in 2003, perplexing why that is relevant.
Surely you're being facetious about MD. Someone asked why the line may have changed. Just speculating. This is just a blog and giving possible answers.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Not being a bettor of this sort, what does a line going up this much, so soon usually indicate? Is it usually fans betting early? Is there anything that indicates who is doing the early betting that would move a line, or is it simply pro bettors looking to take advantage of what they deem to be an early discrepancy in their minds?

Just curiosity.

Vee, I probably should have been a little clearer in my last post. In this specific instance, overnight lines opened at UC -3.5. I think Vegas corrected the line this afternoon and actually opened it at -6. I don't think the line change had anything to do with early bets placed on UC. I think Vegas just opened it today at -6. I haven't even seen %'s of bets placed yet. I'm sorry if I caused confusion. Check the %'s and line movement around noon tomorrow to get a better feel.

While I thought the line would be lower and I was talking about taking X on the money line, I've been watching last year's Shootout tonight....and my confidence is waning by the minute. Remy, Myles and especially Farr were big in that game. Yikes.

[Nigel Tufnel]

It could mean they have come upon recent news. The most likely thing would be Ed's shoulder. Also some bettors may have lost some faith in X after losing 3 in a row, having a tough game at home against a mediocre Big East team and perhaps a team chemistry problem after the MD fiasco. Just guessing.

Those might be the reason the line is -6....but as previously explained, not the reason it moved up...it started there. Overnight lines are a guess. They are usually pretty close to the actual line. But in this case...not so much.

[American X]

Surely you're being facetious about MD.

I am never facetious about Maryland or doctors.

And don't call me Shirley.

[Emp]

The line had fallen from an opening +6 to 4.5 and still moving south. I/u holding at 136.

[XUhockey99]

i use vegasinsider.com to get betting info because it usually has up to date odds at the various casino companies in vegas (helpful b/c i live here). right now, it looks like xavier is the #1 bet trend for the day (taking the line), and 73% of the line bets going on xavier and 89% of the money line bets. uc is the #8 on the list, which is odd because teams playing each other usually are very close on the betting trends. good sign or respect for xavier or both?

[GetUp5]

i use vegasinsider.com to get betting info because it usually has up to date odds at the various casino companies in vegas (helpful b/c i live here). right now, it looks like xavier is the #1 bet trend for the day (taking the line), and 73% of the line bets going on xavier and 89% of the money line bets. uc is the #8 on the list, which is odd because teams playing each other usually are very close on the betting trends. good sign or respect for xavier or both?

That site is for the birds. Most saying Xavier is attracting about 55% of the spread bets and only 48% of the ML bets.

Good sign the line has moved from +6 to +4.5. If X was getting a majority of the action and the line was staying the same or getting higher, we'd have some good ol reverse line movement.

[Nigel Tufnel]

That site is for the birds. Most saying Xavier is attracting about 55% of the spread bets and only 48% of the ML bets.

Good sign the line has moved from +6 to +4.5. If X was getting a majority of the action and the line was staying the same or getting higher, we'd have some good ol reverse line movement.


Yep. Sportsinsights has X bets ATS at 56% and X ML bets at 48%. Line is still dropping too. Down to UC -3.5 at some books. Most have it at UC -4. Line dropping from 5 or 6 down to 4 or 3.5 with 56% coming in on X is a good sign. Damn...I should have taken X on the ML this morning. It was +205. Now its down to +155.

[XUhockey99]

i'll definitely check out sportsinsights, but i like vegasinsider because it has the lines at different casinos. for me, i'm usually wary when seeing anything with over 2/3 of bets, but don't bet much anyway. plus i don't trust myself to take emotion out bets on my favorite teams, so i don't bet xavier games. ha.

[Nigel Tufnel]

% of bets shifts to 55% on UC and line holding steady at -3:5. Interesting.

[Lloyd Braun]

Still showing -4 on Bovada... ml down to +140

[vee4xu]

Vee, I probably should have been a little clearer in my last post. In this specific instance, overnight lines opened at UC -3.5. I think Vegas corrected the line this afternoon and actually opened it at -6. I don't think the line change had anything to do with early bets placed on UC. I think Vegas just opened it today at -6. I haven't even seen %'s of bets placed yet. I'm sorry if I caused confusion. Check the %'s and line movement around noon tomorrow to get a better feel.

While I thought the line would be lower and I was talking about taking X on the money line, I've been watching last year's Shootout tonight....and my confidence is waning by the minute. Remy, Myles and especially Farr were big in that game. Yikes.

Oh no worries. Thanks for taking the time to spell it out.

[GoMuskies]

% of bets shifts to 55% on UC and line holding steady at -3:5. Interesting.

Masses were not asses tonight. Our front court were, though.