XU v. UC: Great Defense = Win

[GOX]

Beating UC will require our best effort.
Our offensive statistics are not that dissimilar:
UC: PPG: 77. FG %. 47.6. FT% 66.8. 3PT % 33.9. RB: 39
XU: PPG: 76. FG % 45.0 . FT % 69.3 . 3PT % 32.6 . RB:39
The key is mitigating home court advantage.
UC averages : 77.3 points per game. 86. 5 points at home. 62.9 points away.
XU averages: 76.1 points per game. 79.3 at home. 71.6 away.
If we hold UC close to their away average and we score our away average, we win.
If we score our away average and UC scores their home average, we lose by 15.
Even if we score 10 points above our away average and they score their home average , we lose by 5.
We have to play our best defense to win.
Pick our 5 players that best match up defensively with theirs and accept any offensive limitations in that line up.
If we can hold UC to 70 points we can win.
If they get over 80: "wait till next year".

[XUGRAD80]

I think that this is one of those games where you can throw the statistics out the window. The level of compition that X has played is far above what UC has played. The only team they share is Butler. UC was never really in a position to win that game, while I think that is one that X let get away,should have won, and probably will win next time they play. The only other top 25 teams UC played (at time game was played) are Rhode Island (1pt loss) and Iowa State (OT win) and both of them are now 12-6 on the season and not even sniffing the top 25 any longer. You could easily say that UC and X have completely swapped their positions in the college basketball world in regards to league and schedule quality.

The key is going to be turnovers and foul shooting. X needs to avoid turnovers and since UC is one of the least fouling teams in the country, they need to make a very high percentage of the foul shots they do get. I just finished reading Inside the Crosstown Shootout, by Bill Koch. It struck me that so many of players remarked that until they actually PLAYED in the game they didn't actually understand the emotional challenge they would face. I'm afraid that this may hamper the contributions that Gaston, Bernard, and Goodin may add to the X cause. The experience that many of the UC players have of already having played in this game may the edge that they need to get a win. We know that UC has been good a defending the permiter against the compition they have faced, but how the compition they have faced compares to the Xavier players has yet to be seen.

My prediction......pain

Just hope the game doesn't have an effect on the rest of the conference games to come.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think that this is one of those games where you can throw the statistics out the window. The level of compition that X has played is far above what UC has played. The only team they share is Butler. UC was never really in a position to win that game, while I think that is one that X let get away,should have won, and probably will win next time they play. The only other top 25 teams UC played (at time game was played) are Rhode Island (1pt loss) and Iowa State (OT win) and both of them are now 12-6 on the season and not even sniffing the top 25 any longer. You could easily say that UC and X have completely swapped their positions in the college basketball world in regards to league and schedule quality.

The key is going to be turnovers and foul shooting. X needs to avoid turnovers and since UC is one of the least fouling teams in the country, they need to make a very high percentage of the foul shots they do get. I just finished reading Inside the Crosstown Shootout, by Bill Koch. It struck me that so many of players remarked that until they actually PLAYED in the game they didn't actually understand the emotional challenge they would face. I'm afraid that this may hamper the contributions that Gaston, Bernard, and Goodin may add to the X cause. The experience that many of the UC players have of already having played in this game may the edge that they need to get a win. We know that UC has been good a defending the permiter against the compition they have faced, but how the compition they have faced compares to the Xavier players has yet to be seen.

My prediction......pain

Just hope the game doesn't have an effect on the rest of the conference games to come.

Turnovers will be the key I believe. And which team shoots FTs better since neither shoots them well.

Our players have to be confident going in, none of them have ever lost to UC.

I think we win but this game is usually unpredictable. (And I think we will win most every game :smile: )

[xukeith]

First 4 minutes will be back and forth and ugly.
2nd half, UC's defense will clamp down so I hope X can get up early.
Maybe FT shooting and getting Bearkittins in FT trouble is the key.

Worry: XU's interior defense and lack of go to post guy leads to perimeter guys guarded closer and throwing up bricks.

Just make all FTs and stop turning ball over.
Win.

[RyanblockXU]

So something of note:

Went back and watched the beginning of last years game. We put them away early and that was done all by players who are no longer here. We lead 13-1 and all those points were scored by Remy, James and Myles.

Couple Questions I have:

Who guards Kyle Washington? if we put Gaston on him, he will drag him away from the basket and thus take away our best rebounder. Thats the guy that scares me

We absolutely need to hit some 3's.. I think we need 9 or more 3's to get the job done

[bjf123]

If the score stays in the 50s or 60s, we lose. Get it to the 70s or more and we win going away.


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[xdude]

So something of note:

Went back and watched the beginning of last years game. We put them away early and that was done all by players who are no longer here. We lead 13-1 and all those points were scored by Remy, James and Myles.

Couple Questions I have:

Who guards Kyle Washington? if we put Gaston on him, he will drag him away from the basket and thus take away our best rebounder. Thats the guy that scares me

We absolutely need to hit some 3's.. I think we need 9 or more 3's to get the job done

Washington is quite talented, but he's not the only one. This game is all about intensity and confidence. Should be a thriller.

[xukeith]

Washington is quite talented, but he's not the only one. This game is all about intensity and confidence. Should be a thriller.

Xavier is more talented but UC has a system that the team has bought into and that defense shut X down in 2nd half last year.
X must be on top of its game in first half or get lulled to sleep againgst good D as game goes on.

[GOX]

As of this moment, the parallel " Pick the Score " thread has only one member saying UC will win. That is positive.
The majority of the members say we will hold UC to the 60's. That can be done since East Carolina, Temple and Iowa State held UC to 55.
As we move closer to Thursday those members who are smart on matchups can opine on that.
Kyle Washington is impressive. Is Gaston going to stay glued on him? Who will be covering Gary Clark?
How will our bigs defend without getting into early foul trouble and having to sit?
We have a lot of strategizing ahead of us.

[kyxu]

If the score stays in the 50s or 60s, we lose. Get it to the 70s or more and we win going away.


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In years past, yes, but this year, UC can actually score the ball a little, so we could still get blown up with a game in the 70s.

This may be one of Mick's better teams since he's been the head coach at UC. I am concerned about our inability to take care of the ball, and our poor performance at the line, which are critical to beating UC any year, not just this one. UC never guards us very well on the perimeter, so the shots will be there.

We have to cut down on the unforced mistakes. Also, we will not get to the line 40 times against UC. They defend pretty well without fouling, so when we get to the line, we have to make it count. Trevon and JP started slowly from the line yesterday but finished well as they got more opportunities to even things out. Won't be the case against UC.

[markchal]

Given that we're on the road, we're prone to scoring droughts, and Uc feels due for one, this is the least optimistic I've been in awhile for a Crosstown win.

[xuwin]

Beating UC will require our best effort.
Our offensive statistics are not that dissimilar:
UC: PPG: 77. FG %. 47.6. FT% 66.8. 3PT % 33.9. RB: 39
XU: PPG: 76. FG % 45.0 . FT % 69.3 . 3PT % 32.6 . RB:39
The key is mitigating home court advantage.
UC averages : 77.3 points per game. 86. 5 points at home. 62.9 points away.
XU averages: 76.1 points per game. 79.3 at home. 71.6 away.
If we hold UC close to their away average and we score our away average, we win.
If we score our away average and UC scores their home average, we lose by 15.
Even if we score 10 points above our away average and they score their home average , we lose by 5.
We have to play our best defense to win.
Pick our 5 players that best match up defensively with theirs and accept any offensive limitations in that line up.
If we can hold UC to 70 points we can win.
If they get over 80: "wait till next year".

Those offensive numbers show just how weak their home schedule has been to date. I think UC is a very good team but it's hard to tell just how good considering their schedule strength. They are definitely deeper than we are. They can handle foul problem much easier than us.

[nuts4xu]

At the end of the game, if we have scored more points than UC, we will definitely win this game.

[xuwin]

At the end of the game, if we have scored more points than UC, we will definitely win this game.

This game will make Xavier great again.

[xufan2434]

Given that we're on the road, we're prone to scoring droughts, and Uc feels due for one, this is the least optimistic I've been in awhile for a Crosstown win.

Would definitely agree with this. We'll see. Even though they won yesterday, I still feel uneasy about the way they're playing. Which isn't great heading into this one. I just keep telling myself that Mack owns Mick and it gives me some re-assurance haha

[drudy23]

JP - please be less careless.
Ed - don't try to be the hero with careless drives and offensive fouls
Tre - no disappearing act
Everyone Else (including fans) - Escalate The Hate

This will be a tough one to pull out. They have to win eventually right? While UC is improved on the offensive end, they haven't seen great defenses. Getting them frustrated on the offensive end will pay dividends.

[Juice]

Those offensive numbers show just how weak their home schedule has been to date. I think UC is a very good team but it's hard to tell just how good considering their schedule strength. They are definitely deeper than we are. They can handle foul problem much easier than us.

Kenpom.com tells you exactly how good a team's numbers are against their schedule they play. I don't know why everyone acts like the answers aren't out there.

[XAVI3R23]

Trevon has had 5 TOTAL points in the two games he has played against uc. If he doesn't get to at least 15 IMO X has a very slim chance, the help just isn't consistently there as it was in years past. X needs someone else to score besides Macura and Sumner as well and I think that guy might be Bernard. Absolutely can not go on a drought from deep like we have some tendencies to do on the road this year. Very nervous about this game but X has all the talent and more to beat this UC team. Time to put Mylesgate behind us and start winning some important games!!

[GOX]

Not all members are Kenyon subscribers and many like me don't understand all of his metrics.
But, as best as I can tell, UC 's opponents have , on average the 58th best offense and the 217th best ( worst ) defense.
XU's opponents have the 22nd best offense and the 28th best ( worse) defense.
So based on Strength of Scheduel alone the competition XU has faced is vastly superior to UC's competition on both ends of the court.
Extrapolate from there.

[kyxu]

So based on Strength of Scheduel alone the competition XU has faced is vastly superior to UC's competition on both ends of the court.
Extrapolate from there.

Understatement of the year. Having said that, our competition while playing in the A-10 was vastly inferior to UC's Big East slate, but that didn't stop us from beating them on a regular basis.

[American X]

Extrapolate from there.

UC is a cadre of evil, Devil-worshiping stinkmongers that must be scourged from this earth. Oh, and they drive slow in the left lane with their signal on. ALL OF THEM.

[muskieindent]

This looks like one of Mick's better teams.He finally has a few guys who can score and they play their typical tough D.At home ,with a couple of experienced guards who have yet to beat X ,I think this is the Bearcat's year .Of course that probably means we make it 4 straight

[XU 87]

I want X to win so I can listen to Mick whine and complain in his post games press conference.

[Lamont Sanford]

I want X to win so I can listen to Mick whine and complain in his post games press conference.

+1

[bjf123]

As of this moment, the parallel " Pick the Score " thread has only one member saying UC will win. That is positive.
The majority of the members say we will hold UC to the 60's. That can be done since East Carolina, Temple and Iowa State held UC to 55.
As we move closer to Thursday those members who are smart on matchups can opine on that.
Kyle Washington is impressive. Is Gaston going to stay glued on him? Who will be covering Gary Clark?
How will our bigs defend without getting into early foul trouble and having to sit?
We have a lot of strategizing ahead of us.

I haven't posted a score prediction yet, and won't until Thursday afternoon. At the moment, I'm leaning towards a UC win.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[xuwin]

I want X to win so I can listen to Mick whine and complain in his post games press conference.

It's fun to hear him insist every year that this game isn't any more important to him than any other game.

[bleedXblue]

I haven't posted a score prediction yet, and won't until Thursday afternoon. At the moment, I'm leaning towards a UC win.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

X is going to need to play their most complete game of the year on both ends of the floor. And yes, Trevon must show up and perform.

[D-West & PO-Z]

X still ranked
Top 25 Crosstown shoootout. I think I read only for the 3rd time ever.

[X-band '01]

I want X to win so I can listen to Mick whine and complain in his post games press conference.

Someone on UC's board says that Kenyon Martin and Danny Fortson call Mick annually to complain about losing the Shootout. Priceless.

[XU 87]

It's fun to hear him insist every year that this game isn't any more important to him than any other game.

The players who have played in this game describes how intense and hard fought it is. So if Mick wants to tell his team, "This is just another game.", I say in response, "Keep saying that, Mick. Don't prepare your team for a game that is this intense."

Personally, I think it REALLY bothers him that X keeps winning and that X has had the better program while he's been at UC. If he's not bothered by this, there's something wrong with him.

[muskieindent]

Based on his post game Saturday,he knows this isn't just another game.He wants it so Kenyon and Danny Fortson don't call him up to give it to him hell for losing to X

[xufan2434]

The players who have played in this game describes how intense and hard fought it is. So if Mick wants to tell his team, "This is just another game.", I say in response, "Keep saying that, Mick. Don't prepare your team for a game that is this intense."

Personally, I think it REALLY bothers him that X keeps winning and that X has had the better program while he's been at UC. If he's not bothered by this, there's something wrong with him.

Oh it for sure bothers him. It's why he's always lashing out every time this game comes up. If X somehow pulls out a win I think he really might explode and lose it. Like to the point where it becomes an issue. I'm not expecting X to win, but to see that little man throw a sore loser temper tantrum would be epic

[kyxu]

X still ranked
Top 25 Crosstown shoootout. I think I read only for the 3rd time ever.

X is 2-0 in such meetings.

[paulxu]

there's something wrong with him.

uhhh....yea.

[THRILLHOUSE]

X is 2-0 in such meetings.

Last season and 1994, right?

[kyxu]

Last season and 1994, right?

Correct

[Xavier]

I want X to win so I can listen to Mick whine and complain in his post games press conference.

Agreed. Love to hate that guy. Also, I hope he stays the coach for another 10 years. Xavier will always have the coaching edge over him

[THRILLHOUSE]

Agreed. Love to hate that guy.

Yeah. I don't really have any problems with any of their players. But Cronin? Yeah, I'll forever loathe him.

[XU3232]

From the UC message board: Entertaining posters over there haha...

Quote:


Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post

FYI.


Sumner has a Shoulder injury. More than likely a torn Labrum. Team has decided to carry on with the injury.


My opinion: We set hard screens on him and like I said earlier, foul him hard at the basket if we get beat. Use his injury against him

Sounds like we need to force him to drive in the direction of his injury so he has to try to finish on that side and we can make sure to foul him hard if it looks like he's gonna score.

[X-band '01]

Entertaining? It's the truth, whether opposing teams want to admit it or not.

Then again, wasn't Cronin complaining that Butler was also too physical for them and that they'd never get away with it in the American since they call games tighter? Using that logic, you'd think that fouls would be called if an opposing player so much as breathes in another player's ear.

#LanceStephenson

[XU3232]

Entertaining? It's the truth, whether opposing teams want to admit it or not.

Then again, wasn't Cronin complaining that Butler was also too physical for them and that they'd never get away with it in the American since they call games tighter? Using that logic, you'd think that fouls would be called if an opposing player so much as breathes in another player's ear.

#LanceStephenson

Yes actually... it is entertaining to read some of the crap they come up with over there.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

Sumner's injury is a serious problem. I just read that site's pages of posts. Besides the normal hate crap that both this site and theirs espouse, they are correct. They have more upper classmen, deeper team, and are playing better ball. XU doesn't have the advantage of shooting this year. Myles would have helped if he were in mid-season form but he is gone. Ed is not a shooter and they can sag on him and force a long shot. Tre/JP/Kaiser are our only shooters so at least one needs to get hot.

I have seen UC more than a few times this year. Their defense is legit, 'Nova's is better but you saw how our guys played in Pauley.

To keep this streak alive, we need to limit TO's, make shots, and rebound. You know, all the things teams do to win on the road.

[GIMMFD]

This is my last weekend in America for break. I'm visiting Marshall on Thursday, one of their basketball players is a Cincinnati native and is a UC fan, we have a case of beer riding on this game. I better not have to buy a UC fan beer is all I'm saying. I hope we come out here and absolutely take them to the woodshed. Let them know that they're our bitch now. I think they're better than they've been in a few years, but I also think that we have the talent, and depth to hammer them. Either that or I'm just biased as hell. Either way, I'm looking forward to Thursday. Had it marked for a while.

[RetireFiftyTu]

From the UC message board: Entertaining posters over there haha...

Quote:


Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post

FYI.


Sumner has a Shoulder injury. More than likely a torn Labrum. Team has decided to carry on with the injury.


My opinion: We set hard screens on him and like I said earlier, foul him hard at the basket if we get beat. Use his injury against him

Sounds like we need to force him to drive in the direction of his injury so he has to try to finish on that side and we can make sure to foul him hard if it looks like he's gonna score.

So they want him to drive to his left and then that would mean he would get bumped on the right shoulder most likely? Either this dude has no idea what he is talking about or I am completely misinterpreting what he is saying. Both are likely.

[GIMMFD]

So they want him to drive to his left and then that would mean he would get bumped on the right shoulder most likely? Either this dude has no idea what he is talking about or I am completely misinterpreting what he is saying. Both are likely.

I think he's saying when Sumner's on defense, set a screen so he bumps the injured shoulder into a UC bigman, and on offense, any-time he's near the rim go up with him regardless and try to just be physical. I don't think UC fans have enough intelligence to understand the concept of forcing a player's drive one way or another.

[drudy23]

Like this:

2138

[XUMIOH12]

Sumner's injury is a serious problem. I just read that site's pages of posts. Besides the normal hate crap that both this site and theirs espouse, they are correct. They have more upper classmen, deeper team, and are playing better ball. XU doesn't have the advantage of shooting this year. Myles would have helped if he were in mid-season form but he is gone. Ed is not a shooter and they can sag on him and force a long shot. Tre/JP/Kaiser are our only shooters so at least one needs to get hot.

I have seen UC more than a few times this year. Their defense is legit, 'Nova's is better but you saw how our guys played in Pauley.

To keep this streak alive, we need to limit TO's, make shots, and rebound. You know, all the things teams do to win on the road.

Has Xavier ever even played at Pauley Pavilion?

[RyanblockXU]

So they want him to drive to his left and then that would mean he would get bumped on the right shoulder most likely? Either this dude has no idea what he is talking about or I am completely misinterpreting what he is saying. Both are likely.

I couldn't understand this either but then realized the bottom paragraph is from a different user than the original post.

Essentially 2 different strategies from 2 different people.

Either way, I'm concerned about ED but good players find a way to make an impact.

[GoMuskies]

Has Xavier ever even played at Pauley Pavilion?

It would be kind of awkward for Trevon.

I think AzXUGrad was referring to Olympic Wrestler Murderer Pavilion (which got to be too mucn of a mouthful, so they changed it to just the Pavilion).

[XUMIOH12]

It would be kind of awkward for Trevon.

I think AzXUGrad was referring to Olympic Wrestler Murderer Pavilion (which got to be too mucn of a mouthful, so they changed it to just the Pavilion).

it would be especially awkward if they were playing Villanova at Pauley.

[Milhouse]

That Justinhubs guy is just weird. He's on reddit too. Something off about him just can't place my finger on it.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

My mistake, I just had that on my mind for some reason. Regardless, this is not a road strong team at all. They have looked poor at all but a single location and that was against a terrible BE team. I guess they didn't look stellar against Georgetown either.


It would be kind of awkward for Trevon.

I think AzXUGrad was referring to Olympic Wrestler Murderer Pavilion (which got to be too mucn of a mouthful, so they changed it to just the Pavilion).

[XAVI3R23]

First time I have ever ventured over to the UC board, holy knock to the IQ, won't be making that mistake again.

[paulxu]

I did notice this in that one guy's post:


MYLES DAVIS

Im kinda sad we couldn't boo the shit out of him but I do love that he won't have the opportunity to go undefeated against UC.


I think Myles actually was undefeated against UC.

[GoMuskies]

It's up to Tim Stainbrook to complete the 4-0 against UC, I guess.

[XU3232]

I think it's funny how they still think we're the "little brother" or "little sister" as one guy stated. They can't honestly still think that. I mean our programs have basically traded places and we have owned them for a while now. One reasonable guy even called out the others saying that it's ridiculous for them to call us that which was refreshing to know at least a couple of them have a brain.

[xufan2434]

I think it's funny how they still think we're the "little brother" or "little sister" as one guy stated. They can't honestly still think that. I mean our programs have basically traded places and we have owned them for a while now. One reasonable guy even called out the others saying that it's ridiculous for them to call us that which was refreshing to know at least a couple of them have a brain.

Might just be speaking for me.. But most of my friends or people I know that are intelligent UC fans, are the ones you don't hear from. Maybe some friendly chatter now and then, but the ones yapping all the time usually have their head up the wrong end

[drudy23]

I did notice this in that one guy's post:



I think Myles actually was undefeated against UC.

Well if he WAS undefeated against UC, he's STILL undefeated against UC. And always will be.

[XAVI3R23]

Most UC fans I know also are aware that Cincy is the one trying to catch up to Xavier right now, but they're always those few who want to keep pounding their chest about national championships that happened over half a century ago.

One gentleman even brought up that UC has had win streaks of 8 and 12 against X which is true but that happened between 1957 - 1979 when UC won 22 out of 24 games.

Since 1979 this game has been played 37 times X has won 22 times and UC has won 15. so this "little brother" has outplayed them for 37 years.

Those games before 1979 did happen but a good majority of both fan bases never even saw that era, so if they want to stick their chest out about that, all the power to them.

They can have UC's ancient past all they want. I will take Xavier's recent past, present, and future any day of the week.

[XU3232]

Might just be speaking for me.. But most of my friends or people I know that are intelligent UC fans, are the ones you don't hear from. Maybe some friendly chatter now and then, but the ones yapping all the time usually have their head up the wrong end

That's good to hear. I seem to only come across the obnoxious morons.

[GIMMFD]

Most UC fans I know also are aware that Cincy is the one trying to catch up to Xavier right now, but they're always those few who want to keep pounding their chest about national championships that happened over half a century ago.

One gentleman even brought up that UC has had win streaks of 8 and 12 against X which is true but that happened between 1957 - 1979 when UC won 22 out of 24 games.

Since 1979 this game has been played 37 times X has won 22 times and UC has won 15. so this "little brother" has outplayed them for 37 years.

Those games before 1979 did happen but a good majority of both fan bases never even saw that era, so if they want to stick their chest out about that, all the power to them.

They can have UC's ancient past all they want. I will take Xavier's recent past, present, and future any day of the week.

It's the only argument they can make. They literally have nothing else. We've owned them in the last 37 years, and especially 2000s on. (11 to 5 our favor), I don't blame them for trying to use it. It's technically not wrong, but all things being said, we're a more attractive program right now, and those are facts.

[XfansinKy]

Would like to see Q or Tyrique have a good game and become more confident for the rest of the season.

[Xuperman]

No two ways about it, this game will have a direct impact on our NCAA seeding win or lose. I am predicting a win so here's the thing. Other than @ SMU, UC is favored to win all it's remaining games, most by large margins. Even the SMU game is basically a pick-em. If we beat them and they run the table and win the AAC tourney, they would be like 31-3. Sounds like top 5 and a 2 seed. I think a W tomorrow would be more significant on selection Sunday than any of our remaining games. Even a W vs VU in the rematch.

[AviatorX]

No two ways about it, this game will have a direct impact on our NCAA seeding win or lose. I am predicting a win so here's the thing. Other than @ SMU, UC is favored to win all it's remaining games, most by large margins. Even the SMU game is basically a pick-em. If we beat them and they run the table and win the AAC tourney, they would be like 31-3. Sounds like top 5 and a 2 seed. I think a W tomorrow would be more significant on selection Sunday than any of our remaining games. Even a W vs VU in the rematch.

The chances of UC getting a 2 seed if they lose to X are very very low.

[Xuperman]

Too many "ifs" involved.....strictly hypothetical but if UC loses tomorrow and then wins out, I disagree. That would be like a 13-14 game win streak and both AAC championships. Losing to a top 25 X would not keep them from being a top 8 overall seed. The committee likes to give some love to the mid-majors!!

[Juice]

The chances of UC getting a 2 seed if they lose to X are very very low.

The chances of them getting a 2 seed with a win are very, very low.

[GoMuskies]

The chances of them getting a 2 seed with a win are very, very low.

I don't know about that. With a win over us, they'd put themselves in a really good spot.

[AviatorX]

I don't know about that. With a win over us, they'd put themselves in a really good spot.

Not sure that's true, they would need A LOT to go in their favor. Simply because they only have what, 3 chances at wins that will help? (X, @ SMU, SMU in the AAC finals). That's only thinking from the perspective of the teams likely ahead of them right now -- can't forget about the group that could still get hot in the back half of conference play/in a conference tourney.

Edit: not a knock on UC, just the reality of how seeding works.

[bearcatalyst]

The chances of them getting a 2 seed with a win are very, very low.

I tend to agree with this. Winning out, and I mean all the way through the conference tournament, would certainly give them a shot. That's still just a shot and far from a guarantee. You're talking about getting beyond teams that are already projected one seeds who falter, two seeds who hold pace, obviously another 10ish schools ahead of them and any other Tom, Dick or Harry from a major conference who goes on a run. It's possible but I'd balk at calling it probable even if UC does the unlikely and wins out. I can hope though, right? Starts on Thursday. I think the shootout is worth a full seed line to the cats as it's both a great win by any metric and a nice perception win beating what should be a top 4 Big East team, if they can get it.

[muskieindent]

It's the only argument they can make. They literally have nothing else. We've owned them in the last 37 years, and especially 2000s on. (11 to 5 our favor), I don't blame them for trying to use it. It's technically not wrong, but all things being said, we're a more attractive program right now, and those are facts.

This is a game that freshman usually are no factor.Need upper classmen to step up.I think Caupain and Johnson could be difference makers for UC.Two seniors who have never beaten X

[AviatorX]

This is a game that freshman usually are no factor.Need upper classmen to step up.I think Caupain and Johnson could be difference makers for UC.Two seniors who have never beaten X

If Kevin Johnson beats X, then X deserves to lose.

[Xavier]

The chances of them getting a 2 seed with a win are very, very low.

Yeah. It's possible but need a ton to happen. They are having trouble moving up rankings as it is due to the weak schedule, a loss to X kills that 2 seed chance.

[xufan2434]

If Kevin Johnson beats X, then X deserves to lose.

Kevin Johnson is trash. For every made basket he has, 5 straight bricks follow it. I agree ha, if he's the guy that beats em then we have more problems than I thought

[Xuperman]

Yeah. It's possible but need a ton to happen. They are having trouble moving up rankings as it is due to the weak schedule, a loss to X kills that 2 seed chance.
Again hypothetically, IF they should lose tomorrow, win out and finish 31-3, they would most certainly have the best record in the country (- Gonzaga). It would be hard to argue a 31-3 UC team not being ranked at least 8. No way losing to X hurts them in any way.

[AviatorX]

Again hypothetically, IF they should lose tomorrow, win out and finish 31-3, they would most certainly have the best record in the country (- Gonzaga). It would be hard to argue a 31-3 UC team not being ranked at least 8. No way losing to X hurts them in any way.

Yes but I'm not sure you understand how seeding works.

[GIMMFD]

Kevin Johnson is trash. For every made basket he has, 5 straight bricks follow it. I agree ha, if he's the guy that beats em then we have more problems than I thought

I swear I'll drink myself into a coma if Kevin Johnson is the reason we lose tomorrow. Capuain or whatever? Okay sure, but Johnson. Good lord.

[xubrew]

I think UC's chances of getting a #2 seed even if they win out are pretty much zero. I know the committee changes a little bit each year, but as recently as 2014 Louisville (an AAC team at the time) finished the regular season with 30 wins and ranked #4th in the nation. They got a #4 seed, and we learned that they actually got the last #4 seed.

To get a #1 seed you typically need to win a true road game against a protected seed. To get a #2 seed you at least need to beat multiple teams away from home that are in the top half of the bracket. UC will not do this even if they win out. Beating us at home is a decent win at best. It certainly isn't the kind of win that would land a team on the #2 line. We're 1-4 in true road games, and our best win of the year is probably against Clemson.

Teams like Villanova, Kentucky, Baylor, Kansas, Virginia, Arizona, Gonzaga, North Carolina (well if you count Clemson), and Florida State who all have multiple wins away from home against teams that are likely to make the tournament, and with the exception of North Carolina all have multiple wins away from home against teams that are likely to be the better seeded team in the Round of 64. On top of that, all of them have chances to pick up even more before it's over. UC does not. There's almost no chance that they are going to catch those teams even if they win out. Hell, I don't think of Butler as being a #2 seed, but they did beat Cincinnati and they have far more wins against the top half of the bracket than UC does, so it's hard for me to imagine UC ends up with a better seed than Butler even if they win out.

In short, no, I don't think they'll be a #2 seed.