2017 Crosstown Shootout

[XU.]

With the calendar turning to 2017 is it too early to start talking about the crosstown shootout? The game is about three weeks away and we are still in the dark about whether or not Myles is going to be playing. With that being said I think X still has the horses to win this one convincingly even without Davis in the lineup. The last time UC beat X was in the year 2012 and I don't see that changing this year. As of yesterday here is how the Kenpom rankings play out:

Xavier: Overall Rank - 17, Offensive Efficiency - 22, Defensive Efficiency - 28

Cincinnati: Overall Rank - 19, Offensive Efficiency - 54, Defensive Efficiency - 4

Thoughts?

[Emp]

Thoughts:

1. Bigger fish to fry between now and then.

2. They suck. Really, all the time, but most of all the day we play them.

[XUMIOH12]

if they dont make a bunch of 3s and Xavier keeps them off the O-boards, then it will be a win.

[sirthought]

This will be a tougher matchup than people on this board want to admit.

XU can handle almost anyone, of course, but these Bearcats could beat them if their bigs really start to score well. Much better balanced team than in the past.

That Bluiett/Evans matchup will be interesting.

[Juice]

This will be a tougher matchup than people on this board want to admit.

XU can handle almost anyone, of course, but these Bearcats could beat them if their bigs really start to score well. Much better balanced team than in the past.

That Bluiett/Evans matchup will be interesting.

As of now, I think UC wins since it's at the Shoe.

[GoMuskies]

This will be a tougher matchup than people on this board want to admit.


I'm not sure what this Xavier team has done that would make anyone particularly confident of a win on the road against a top 25 team.

[markchal]

I'm not sure what this Xavier team has done that would make anyone particularly confident of a win on the road against a top 25 team.

I agree with this. I just have a bad feeling about this game, even though we generally own them.

[gladdenguy]

This team has a long way to go. With this matchup only a couple weeks away, being on the road, and the fact that sUCks actually has more scoring than in the past, I don't see Xavier winning this game.

The big picture is to obviously get St. Johns on Saturday. If they can do that, they would go into the tough 5 game stretch with the following options
(A) 0-5 - in jeopardy of not making the tourney.......3-4 in the Big East

(B) 1-4 - not good...... either 3-4 or 4-3 in the Big East

(C) 2-3 - decent/average and that means at least 1 good win (Creighton, @Butler, @sUCks, @Nova) 4-3 or 5-2 in the Big East

(D) 3-2 - very good and means at least 2 good wins 6-1 or 5-2 in the Big East

(E) 4-1 - awesome and means at least 3 good wins (top 10 as well) 7-0 or 6-1 in the Big East

(F) 5-0 - not happening

Realistically, I'm thinking 2-3 or 3-2

[xufan2434]

To be honest, I have no idea why but I feel better about this game than I did a couple weeks ago. Every time I actually look into it, I just don't see how UC has the fire power to stay with X. Sometimes they put up 90, other times it's 50. Caupain has been playing great as a point guard, but I honestly thought he would be dominating by now when he first started. Same goes for Gary Clark. I know Evans and Washington have stepped up for them, they just don't scare me all that much. Everyone has been saying the last two years UC had more scoring, and then look what happened

Here's the other thing about that gauntlet X will go through. @ Nova, @ Butler, Creighton, Gtown... How is UC going to look to those guys after going through that slate? Talk about being battled tested for a big game. Not to mention I think Mack runs circles around Cronin. X always has that in their favor. The AAC sucks. That's advantage X from the tip when it comes to how physical and fast they'll be used to playing.

[Milhouse]

UC has a good squad this year.

That said the AAC is worse than ever- maybe a 2 bid league? if UC runs the table and wins conference tourney it could legitimately be a 1 team league.

I hate to be like this, because UC fans were like this and I REALLY want to win this game obviously but-

-There is a good chance we end up being the highest ranked Kenpom game UC plays this year (for the 3rd year in a row)
--For reference - UC would be the 6th highest ranked game we play this year (Nova x2, Butler x2, Baylor) - maybe even lower depending on how creighton fares.


UC has 5 top 50 match ups left this year. Currently they're 1-2 in top 50 match ups.
X has9 top 50 match ups left thisyear. Currently they're 2-1 in top 50 match ups ( remains to be seen how wake will finish though)
--Gtown and Seton hall are at 53/54 so they could bump in.


There's a reason UC puts this game in January and X puts it in December....their tough stretch is back to back houston/smu. Our is Nova/Butler/Creighton...going 3-3 against the top of the BE will do more for our resume than a win over UC-but I'd probably still take the W over UC if i'm honest.

[xuwin]

It's hard for me to get a handle on how good the UC team is considering how weak their schedule has been. Scoring 90 points against most of the teams on their schedule so far this year is not that big a deal. The Tulane team that they just demolished was 321 out of 351 in the RPI. They appear to be much deeper this year but they haven't really been tested to date.

[Juice]

It's hard for me to get a handle on how good the UC team is considering how weak their schedule has been. Scoring 90 points against most of the teams on their schedule so far this year is not that big a deal. The Tulane team that they just demolished was 321 out of 351 in the RPI. They appear to be much deeper this year but they haven't really been tested to date.

It's really easy if you look at kenpom.com. UC has the 51st most efficient offense in the country. For reference, we have the 21st most efficient offense. Where UC excels is obviously on defense with the 4th most efficient defense in the country. Where UC has issues is that they play at the 314th fastest tempo in the country which is obviously at the bottom of the NCAA. As of now they have the 211th best SOS overall, while X's SOS is 32nd.

Overall on Kenpom, X is 17th and UC is 18th. This is going to be an extremely close game. KenPom is predicting a 68-64 loss.

[xufan2434]

It's really easy if you look at kenpom.com. UC has the 51st most efficient offense in the country. For reference, we have the 21st most efficient offense. Where UC excels is obviously on defense with the 4th most efficient defense in the country. Where UC has issues is that they play at the 314th fastest tempo in the country which is obviously at the bottom of the NCAA. As of now they have the 211th best SOS overall, while X's SOS is 32nd.

Overall on Kenpom, X is 17th and UC is 18th. This is going to be an extremely close game. KenPom is predicting a 68-64 loss.

God I would hate being a UC fan and having to watch that tempo night in and night out basically every year. I do agree it's going to be a close game and they'll try to muck it up like they always do. It'll be interesting to see how this game will be officiated. I expect Ed to be attacking quite a bit. But if they're not calling fouls early on, it might take away one of X's biggest strengths.

For about as long as I can remember, UC used to always have the edge on the glass with bigger and tougher front lines. In recent years, I think Mack has really taken that edge and actually swung it into X's favor hence his dominance over them. UC might have more talented scorers in the post this year but X has shown so far this year they can board pretty damn well. I think if they win the rebounding battle, they win the game

[RyanblockXU]

I tend to follow and scout X opponents a lot (being a College basketball junkie). And UC is no different. I've watched them play multiple games this year.

Some things I have learned about them:
-Jacob Evans is an future pro and maybe future NBA guy. 6'6 and athletic. He doesn't miss in transition and he shoots the 3 well. Just doesn't take bad shots and his Kenpom ORTG of 128.6 proves that. Ranked in 11th in the country in efficiency for players with same usage as him.

-Kyle Washington will be an X factor for them. He doesn't play defense. If Shid can get physical with him, it takes him out of his element and he struggles. Cronin has been benching him for Tre Scotts defense. That said, early in the season he showed that can absolutely dominate a teams defense from all levels of the floor. He is the Anti Octavious Ellis. If his scoring is on and his D isn't getting him benched, Im not sure who we have to stop him.

-Troy Caupain is not scary at all. He only was an alpha dog scorer for this team because he had to be. Now he has Jacob Evans, washington, cumberland and clark to pass it to. He would rather be a role player who scores 8-10 points and dishes 6-8 Assists without any TO's.

-UC's offense is much improved. Before their game against Temple they were 40 in offensive but they dropped 15 spots because of that performance. I think they slowly climb back to being a top 50 offense. They can't shoot the 3 and seem to be understanding what they are good as they are taking more efficentb 3 point shots and making them. They are dominate in 2 point scoring however, good for 15th in the country. They have such an efficient offense because they are shooting 49% from the field as a team, don't turn the ball over and they grab a higher percentage of their misses than even we do.


This will be a battle. Im sure of it.

Im going to be interested to see what kind of defense they use against us. The last 3 years Cronin has used the matchup zone because he couldn't trust his big men on switches and it worked well for them but they were killed by the 3 point shot, espeically in the corner. UC started the season in the matchup zone and for a while defended the 3 really well. Then they played Marshall and allowed 17 3's on their home court. 14 were in the first half. In the second half, they benched Kyle Washington and switched to a more athletic defender in Tre Scott and switched to Man to Man and pressed up well beyond the 3 point line. They held Marshall to just 3 second half 3's.. Since then, they have been playing more Man to Man and are keeping the 3 point shot at bay.

The big question is; will they start out in a match up zone that X will inevitably destroy. Or do they finally learn their lesson and switch to man to man.

Interesting story line for me is: Gary Clark Vs Trevon Blueitt.

Blueitt has a combined 5 points in 2 games against UC. Gary Clark dominated Xavier in his first game but was held completely scoreless and only took 2 shots the next game. Does this trend continue? Do they cancel each other out? If so, we will need Ed and JP to put in work for us.

[RyanblockXU]

God I would hate being a UC fan and having to watch that tempo night in and night out basically every year. I do agree it's going to be a close game and they'll try to muck it up like they always do. It'll be interesting to see how this game will be officiated. I expect Ed to be attacking quite a bit. But if they're not calling fouls early on, it might take away one of X's biggest strengths.

For about as long as I can remember, UC used to always have the edge on the glass with bigger and tougher front lines. In recent years, I think Mack has really taken that edge and actually swung it into X's favor hence his dominance over them. UC might have more talented scorers in the post this year but X has shown so far this year they can board pretty damn well. I think if they win the rebounding battle, they win the game


Keep in mind, Tempo has just as much to do with your defense as it does to do with offense. Its all about total possessions in a game.

So if UC's defense forces you to use a ton of clock and get off bad shots every possession then their tempo is going to be pretty damn slow.

Don't get me wrong, UC plays slow ugly offense BUT its not in the 300's, its more 213 in the country, they essentially average a use of 17.4 seconds of shot clock per possession. Xavier uses 16.8. Its not that much a of a difference on offense. Xavier averages 4 more possessions a game than UC.

[Juice]

Keep in mind, Tempo has just as much to do with your defense as it does to do with offense. Its all about total possessions in a game.

So if UC's defense forces you to use a ton of clock and get off bad shots every possession then their tempo is going to be pretty damn slow.

Don't get me wrong, UC plays slow ugly offense BUT its not in the 300's, its more 213 in the country, they essentially average a use of 17.4 seconds of shot clock per possession. Xavier uses 16.8. Its not that much a of a difference on offense. Xavier averages 4 more possessions a game than UC.

Tempo is based on possessions per game. UC averages 65.9, which ranks 314th. The NCAA average is 69.6 possessions per game. XU averages 69.2 possessions a game.

[RyanblockXU]

Tempo is based on possessions per game. UC averages 65.9, which ranks 314th. The NCAA average is 69.6 possessions per game. XU averages 69.2 possessions a game.

Sure. I know that. But you can alter the games tempo by your defense. You will let less opportunity for more possession if you force the other team to use way more shot clock. UC's defense makes the game shorter. They play slow on offense as well but defense drives that tempo number down

Look at Virginia. They dead last in tempo but it's because they are the slowest on offense and defense. They take 20 seconds per possession. Compared to UC 17 and Xavier 16.8

[xufan2434]

Sure. I know that. But you can alter the games tempo by your defense. You will let less opportunity for more possession if you force the other team to use way more shot clock. UC's defense makes the game shorter. They play slow on offense as well but defense drives that tempo number down

Look at Virginia. They dead last in tempo but it's because they are the slowest on offense and defense. They take 20 seconds per possession. Compared to UC 17 and Xavier 16.8

Oh for sure, and I wasn't really knocking the way they play cause it's nice to have a great defense. Just from a pure entertainment standpoint, would suck to have that be who you watch all the time.

We'll see on this game though. We're all going to find out a whole lot more about what kind of team X is in the next week and a half. Sure would be nice to have Myles with a couple games under his belt by this one though. He's put up 17 & 12 the last two years and 6-9 from 3 against them. Especially considering Tre's struggles against them (I think that changes this year)

[bleedXblue]

Throw everything out the window for this game.......has anyone been watching for the last 20 years? Its almost always a battle (literally LOL) and the best team (on paper) doesn't always win. I like X simply because we will be more battle tested and hopefully we will have Myles back up to speed as well.

[muskieindent]

To be honest, I have no idea why but I feel better about this game than I did a couple weeks ago. Every time I actually look into it, I just don't see how UC has the fire power to stay with X. Sometimes they put up 90, other times it's 50. Caupain has been playing great as a point guard, but I honestly thought he would be dominating by now when he first started. Same goes for Gary Clark. I know Evans and Washington have stepped up for them, they just don't scare me all that much. Everyone has been saying the last two years UC had more scoring, and then look what happened

Here's the other thing about that gauntlet X will go through. @ Nova, @ Butler, Creighton, Gtown... How is UC going to look to those guys after going through that slate? Talk about being battled tested for a big game. Not to mention I think Mack runs circles around Cronin. X always has that in their favor. The AAC sucks. That's advantage X from the tip when it comes to how physical and fast they'll be used to playing.
The teams they score a lot against generally stink.The kid from Wilmington is starting to look pretty good though.This will be a tough game.We've beaten them 3 straight so they may be due.Still 3 weeks away so a lot can change.

[TUclutch]

UC has a good squad this year.

That said the AAC is worse than ever- maybe a 2 bid league? if UC runs the table and wins conference tourney it could legitimately be a 1 team league.

I hate to be like this, because UC fans were like this and I REALLY want to win this game obviously but-

-There is a good chance we end up being the highest ranked Kenpom game UC plays this year (for the 3rd year in a row)
--For reference - UC would be the 6th highest ranked game we play this year (Nova x2, Butler x2, Baylor) - maybe even lower depending on how creighton fares.


UC has 5 top 50 match ups left this year. Currently they're 1-2 in top 50 match ups.
X has9 top 50 match ups left thisyear. Currently they're 2-1 in top 50 match ups ( remains to be seen how wake will finish though)
--Gtown and Seton hall are at 53/54 so they could bump in.


There's a reason UC puts this game in January and X puts it in December....their tough stretch is back to back houston/smu. Our is Nova/Butler/Creighton...going 3-3 against the top of the BE will do more for our resume than a win over UC-but I'd probably still take the W over UC if i'm honest.

UC doesn't put it in January/February. Their TV contract with ESPN does

[muskieindent]

UC has a good squad this year.

That said the AAC is worse than ever- maybe a 2 bid league? if UC runs the table and wins conference tourney it could legitimately be a 1 team league.

I hate to be like this, because UC fans were like this and I REALLY want to win this game obviously but-

-There is a good chance we end up being the highest ranked Kenpom game UC plays this year (for the 3rd year in a row)
--For reference - UC would be the 6th highest ranked game we play this year (Nova x2, Butler x2, Baylor) - maybe even lower depending on how creighton fares.


UC has 5 top 50 match ups left this year. Currently they're 1-2 in top 50 match ups.
X has9 top 50 match ups left thisyear. Currently they're 2-1 in top 50 match ups ( remains to be seen how wake will finish though)
--Gtown and Seton hall are at 53/54 so they could bump in.


There's a reason UC puts this game in January and X puts it in December....their tough stretch is back to back houston/smu. Our is Nova/Butler/Creighton...going 3-3 against the top of the BE will do more for our resume than a win over UC-but I'd probably still take the W over UC if i'm honest.
What!? You'd rather beat UC than sweep Nova,Butler and Creighton? No way.

[94GRAD]

We have the more talented roster and a vastly superior coach! We win by double digits.

[STL_XUfan]

What!? You'd rather beat UC than sweep Nova,Butler and Creighton? No way.

True. But I would be lying if I said I didn't have to pause for a second and think about it.

[dnnrobert]

We have the more talented roster and a vastly superior coach! We win by double digits.

UC fans used to be arrogant like this and you see what has happened to us in this rivalry... just saying.

I have no faith in Cronin when it comes to the Shootout, but I will say this seems like our best chance to win in several years. I haven't had much time to watch XU this year because of my crazy schedule, but I think UC has the horses to keep up with XU this year. Mack generally out coaches Cronin though, so I still give the edge to Xavier.

[Xville]

Really no need to be arrogant about this game....let's not be like the UC fans of old and new. They have a pretty good ball club over there this year especially with Washington the transfer, and they are playing at home. Should be a really good contest.

[X-ceptional]

Its almost always a battle (literally LOL)

Report for your mandatory reflection session.

[MuskieXU]

UC is still not a good team offensively. They've played 5 teams with T100 defenses: ISU, URI, PSU, Temple, and Butler. In those games they scored 55, 71, 71, 56, and 65. Xavier has a better defense than all those teams except ISU. If we hit 70 we have a great chance to beat them.

How do we get to 70? 3 pt shooting. UC has a great defense, but if you can move the ball around and hit shots it breaks down. Rhode Island shot 40% from 3, scored 76 and beat them by 5. Butler Shot 40% from 3, scored 75 and beat them by 10. Marshall shot 44% from 3, scored 91 in OT and lost by only 2. If we hit our shots we win. If we struggle from behind the arch its a toss up.

[X-ceptional]

Beating UC is fun. I like having fun.

I think these guys can do it. Hopefully Myles will be back, and either way there have been some good showings by a number of the other guys recently. Can't imagine Tre has too many 1 point games in front of him (although his struggles in the Shootout have been hit on already), so I'm feeling good about this game.

Need to get through the Thunderdome first though, i.e. @1, @18, vs10... insane!

[paulxu]

Look at Virginia. They dead last in tempo but it's because they are the slowest on offense and defense. They take 20 seconds per possession. Compared to UC 17 and Xavier 16.8

Sounds like a great argument for the 24 second clock. I approve.

[Xavier_Musketeers]

I think if we make our threes we win. We can't shoot like we did against Missouri. Also, I think we need at least two to play really well between Sumner, JP, and Trevon

[xukeith]

I think if we make our threes we win. We can't shoot like we did against Missouri. Also, I think we need at least two to play really well between Sumner, JP, and Trevon

Road wins are difficult. UC will make te NCAA tourney. Can X win on road in very hostile and sold out arena?
Not yet this year. Not sure if any road game for X has been sold out.
It is UC's super bowl. X "might" come out poor shooting.

I think X loses by 5-7.
Hope I am wrong.

BE, X is capable of losing maybe 3-4 games and getting a top 3-4 seed. We shall see.

[Fireball]

I think we're the better team, and so I think we win. I honestly don't look at this game as so much a "road" game because it's a completely different animal than going away to play another team in the Big East or Baylor.

We are dependent on two of the 3 of Bluiett, Sumner, and Macura having good nights. If all three have a good night, then we win and it's probably not close. If those of the three do, then I think we have a slight edge. Honestly, I think this is where Myles helps us the most if he should be back for this one. I think he adds some scoring to take the pressure off those three a bit.

[bleedXblue]

Road wins are difficult. UC will make te NCAA tourney. Can X win on road in very hostile and sold out arena?
Not yet this year. Not sure if any road game for X has been sold out.
It is UC's super bowl. X "might" come out poor shooting.

I think X loses by 5-7.
Hope I am wrong.

BE, X is capable of losing maybe 3-4 games and getting a top 3-4 seed. We shall see.

Shocked you have us losing.....

And you're way, way off on your BE prediction.......if we only lose 3-4 game in the BE, we'll have a TOP 10 RPI and we ranked in the Top 10. That's a 2-3 seed at worst

[ArizonaXUGrad]

I agree with the assessment that if our threes fall we should win this game. However, there isn't much of a mention here of Myles. If Myles has a few games under his belt and nails 3-4 big threes in this game and we get Sumner/JP/Trevon playing decent, XU should win this.

[Xavier]

Shocked you have us losing.....

And you're way, way off on your BE prediction.......if we only lose 3-4 game in the BE, we'll have a TOP 10 RPI and we ranked in the Top 10. That's a 2-3 seed at worst

If we lose 4 more BE games, at UC and in the big east tournament then we would be looking at 3/4. Probably a 4. (8 losses).

[bleedXblue]

If we lose 4 more BE games, at UC and in the big east tournament then we would be looking at 3/4. Probably a 4. (8 losses).

You say a 4 and I say a 3.....we shall see.

8 losses would mean anywhere from 24-27 wins

I don't think this happens anyway......but fun to think about

[RyanblockXU]

I agree with the assessment that if our threes fall we should win this game. However, there isn't much of a mention here of Myles. If Myles has a few games under his belt and nails 3-4 big threes in this game and we get Sumner/JP/Trevon playing decent, XU should win this.

UC has won a game where an opponent made 17 3's... and they did that because they generated TO and because they shoot so well from 2.

Kenpom has them ranked one spot higher then us. And they adjust for competition. Like it or not UC has a much improved offense with Evans, caupain, Washington, Clark and even jarron Cumberland with the ability to put up big numbers on us.

We will need to play good defense and try to confuse them with the 1-3-1 . Rebounding is crucial as well. They allow a lot offensive boards so we need to grab them all and convert.

I think they end up sticking Evans on sumner, they are the same size and Evans can really guard. I think it will be a great game. What scares me is UC looks like they have much better team chemistry than we do at the moment. I think we could change that but right now it's still a work in progress

[xdude]

"Throw everything out the window for this game.......has anyone been watching for the last 20 years? Its almost always a battle (literally LOL) and the best team (on paper) doesn't always win. I like X simply because we will be more battle tested and hopefully we will have Myles back up to speed as well." - BleedXUBlue



Thanks BleedX, valuable insights from KenPom and posters, but just throw all that shit out the window. UC has some talent and some depth this year - and home field advantage. The only thing I see as close to certain is that this will be one hellofa game!

[Xavier]

As long as Mick is the coach (and lets hope he is for a VERY long time) I won't be worried with UC offense. Same team different names. Athletic, can play good defense and rebound and offensively challenged. Best case for UC (as always) is to muck it up and have both teams play really sloppy. In a rivalry game, that has a real chance of happening.