Time to Predict the Big East Record

[GOX]

This year's team will be a work in progress. Where it ends up only the most sage can predict.
We begin Big East play this Wednesday. Before then , let's make our predictions and identify those sages in March.
I predict 11 Big East wins and 7 losses and a Crosstown Score: UC 82 , XU 74.
What do you say?

[markchal]

This year's team will be a work in progress. Where it ends up only the most sage can predict.
We begin Big East play this Wednesday. Before then , let's make our predictions and identify those sages in March.
I predict 11 Big East wins and 7 losses and a Crosstown Score: UC 82 , XU 74.
What do you say?

I wish I could see Myles play with this group before I decided, but since that's out the window, I'll go on the record with 12-6 and a loss at UC. I could easily see 11-7/10-8, our schedule is pretty brutal out of the gate, but I'm also not sure that Butler and Creighton are markedly better than us (I do think Nova is in a class of its own this year, the race is for second).

[letskeepitreal]

I think,that the Big East will be very competitive with Villanova 1st, Creighton 2nd and X third with 12-6 or 11 and 7. Gonna be tough and have to defend home and then win 2-4 on the road.

[gladdenguy]

I agree with 11-7 or 10-8 and unfortunately a loss at UC. Hopefully 21-10 or 20-11 avoids the 8/9 line. Guess it depends on how many good wins and road wins.

[XUFan09]

12-6, win at UC

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[Mel Cooley XU'81]

10-8.

Big East Tournament Finalist.

5 seed.

Onward!

[bleedXblue]

11-7

Should put us 3rd or 4th

How dare any of you to predict a loss to UC. We own those fu^*ers!

[xeus]

Myles comes back and leads us to a 14-4 conference record. Losses at the usual suspects: nova, butler, creighton, plus gtown, hold serve at home. Win at UC 74-70.

[D-West & PO-Z]

12-6 and of course a win @ UC, are you guys crazy???

[paulxu]

, are you guys crazy???

Yes, they are.

(another edition of simple answers to simple questions)

[XMuskieFTW]

13-5. win at UC. 3 seed.

[SC in DC]

11-7, beat the hell out of the bear kittens!

[xavierj]

12-6 and a win at UC, they blow. Why does anyone think think that will be a loss?

[xu82]

12-6 and that will be just fine with me. Tough road ahead. Win vs UC, 78-69.

[Xavier]

14-4. We are the second best team in the big east IMO.

[mirabilelectu]

12-6 and a win at UC, they blow. Why does anyone think think that will be a loss?

Probably because they've watched us play in a pretty mediocre fashion for the first 1/3 of the season.

11-7 in BE
Loss to UC

[XUFan09]

It seems like mediocrity has been redefined for a lot of Xavier fans.

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[XU 87]

18-0.

What's the matter with you Negative Nancies?

[xu82]

18-0.

What's the matter with you Negative Nancies?

I am appropriately shamed. That was of course my gut instinct, but......

[D-West & PO-Z]

It seems like mediocrity has been redefined for a lot of Xavier fans.

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No kidding.

[xufan2434]

I don't think mediocrity has changed for fans.. but let's be serious for a moment. If you watched that Butler/IU game and thought X was better than Butler right now, we're watching different games. Having saiiiiid that, I think Mack owns Holtman and gives us the edge. Same goes for UC. If the shootout was early in the year, different story. But it'll give X plenty of time to find their groove and their little boy coach shits the bed every year against X's staff. He doesn't stand a chance.

12-6 -- swept by nova, creighton, seton hall, 2 others somewhere along the way

[paulxu]

12-6 -- swept by nova, creighton, seton hall, 2 others somewhere along the way

For some reason that looks like 10-8 to me.

[muskiefan82]

It's the new math.

[Olsingledigit]

For some reason that looks like 10-8 to me.

Swept by three, split with two means we sweep four. DePaul, Marquette, St John's, ???. And those three are not gimme's. Tough league. I see 10-8 as a possibility and I also see 12-6 as a possibility. Anything outside those lines will be either a bonus or a disappointment.

[muskiefan82]

I think I will feel better about things after a Xavier victory over Providence as I feel that will be a gauge for performance against the lower half of the BE. If X can win convincingly at home against Providence, then things look better for games home and away against St. Johns, DePaul, Marquette, and Georgetown.

[MauriceX]

The "away" game at the Verizon Center while the students are gone at break is going to essentially be a neutral court game. The Hoyas have a hard enough time getting people into that arena normally, and I don't imagine that will improve with a game on New Years Eve at noon. I'd say that will probably be one of our easier road games.

[Xville]

I don't see us being better than 11-7 in the league this year. The top half of the league is probably the strongest it has ever been, and this Xavier team seems to be more of the one from two years ago, than the one last year.

I can see us sweeping Marquette, St. Johns, Depaul and Georgetown and wining at home against Providence, Butler and then either Seton Hall or Creighton.

I think this year's Xavier team is a good one, just not special. Prove me wrong boys

[XUFan09]

I don't think mediocrity has changed for fans.. but let's be serious for a moment. If you watched that Butler/IU game and thought X was better than Butler right now, we're watching different games. Having saiiiiid that, I think Mack owns Holtman and gives us the edge. Same goes for UC. If the shootout was early in the year, different story. But it'll give X plenty of time to find their groove and their little boy coach shits the bed every year against X's staff. He doesn't stand a chance.

12-6 -- swept by nova, creighton, seton hall, 2 others somewhere along the way
This is one of the best Xavier teams in recent years. However, because they are not performing to expectations and more importantly, not performing on the level they did last year in the non-conference, "mediocre" has been thrown around a lot. Yes, the definition of mediocrity for the program has changed. In terms of increased expectations, that's a good thing, but it's still funny to see people call a good team mediocre.

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[Xville]

This is one of the best Xavier teams in recent years. However, because they are not performing to expectations and more importantly, not performing on the level they did last year in the non-conference, "mediocre" has been thrown around a lot. Yes, the definition of mediocrity for the program has changed. In terms of increased expectations, that's a good thing, but it's still funny to see people call a good team mediocre.

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Until they actually prove it, most people, myself included, are not going to believe that. Their best win right now is probably Clemson I guess? Right now this team doesn't look or feel like one of the best Xavier teams in recent years...it feels on par with the team from two and three years ago. Lots of season left so things can change. We shall see.

[Caf]

Until they actually prove it, most people, myself included, are not going to believe that. Their best win right now is probably Clemson I guess? Right now this team doesn't look or feel like one of the best Xavier teams in recent years...it feels on par with the team from two and three years ago. Lots of season left so things can change. We shall see.

Yeah we got that. I think you've mentioned it maybe a couple of times before.

[markchal]

Until they actually prove it, most people, myself included, are not going to believe that. Their best win right now is probably Clemson I guess? Right now this team doesn't look or feel like one of the best Xavier teams in recent years...it feels on par with the team from two and three years ago. Lots of season left so things can change. We shall see.

Totally agree with this. We also barely beat Lehigh and almost lost to a bad mizzou team, so let's not go overboard yet. That Colorado loss was pretty ugly and we don't have many great performances against teams not named Northern Iowa. I still have some serious questions outside of the big 3 and I think they have their own things to work on before this becomes one of the best teams in years.

I'm less confident in this group than I usually am at this point in a season but also have seen enough of our best players over the years to know on days when our shots are falling, only one team in the conference is capable of beating us. Also, the Big East does have more legit teams this year than they have in the last few years, so we definitely can't afford any Colorado-esque performances on the road against Gtown, Providence, Depaul, Marquette or St. Johns (didn't we almost lose to a bad SJU team on the road a few years ago?).

[xufan2434]

For some reason that looks like 10-8 to me.

I meant swept by only Nova, and loss @ SH & Creighton

My bad...

[Caf]

This is one of the best Xavier teams in recent years. However, because they are not performing to expectations and more importantly, not performing on the level they did last year in the non-conference, "mediocre" has been thrown around a lot. Yes, the definition of mediocrity for the program has changed. In terms of increased expectations, that's a good thing, but it's still funny to see people call a good team mediocre.

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Very true. It's great that a Xavier team very deserving of a #17 ranking is "mediocre". Remember that we were never ranked for 3 of the last 5 seasons?

[xufan2434]

Very true. It's great that a Xavier team very deserving of a #17 ranking is "mediocre". Remember that we were never ranked for 3 of the last 5 seasons?

I honestly go both ways with that. They have much better talent than 13-14/14-15 yes. But both of those teams went into conference season with 3 losses and wins over average to below average power conf teams. This team is ranked 17 IMHO because of where they started and their success from last year. If they had sucked last year and came in unranked, they would not now be ranked because of their performances this year. Think a lot of people here are just saying objectively this team hasn't really put an impressive start to finish performance on the floor yet. And there's nothing wrong with that, but you have to take that into consideration if you're projecting their conference record..

[XUFan09]

Until they actually prove it, most people, myself included, are not going to believe that. Their best win right now is probably Clemson I guess? Right now this team doesn't look or feel like one of the best Xavier teams in recent years...it feels on par with the team from two and three years ago. Lots of season left so things can change. We shall see.

Your feelings don't match up with data. The offensive and defensive efficiencies have both been ranked in the 20s all season, which definitely can't be said for most past teams. You're correct that their best win is Clemson, but that's a product of the schedule and losing two tough road games. Yes, playing a borderline top 50 team (Colorado) at their place is a tough road game unless you are a clear top 10 team (at which point, it's still challenging). Xavier was only slightly favored because of that, since, well, they're not a top 10 team.

People's unfulfilled expectations are skewing perceptions. Pair that with the team's inconsistency, and disappointed people will tend to see the negative side of the inconsistency more than than the positive side, even though this team plays well more than they play poorly. It's possible to be disappointed that they're not a top 10 team and still recognize that they're a good team.

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[AviatorX]

I honestly go both ways with that. They have much better talent than 13-14/14-15 yes. But both of those teams went into conference season with 3 losses and wins over average to below average power conf teams. This team is ranked 17 IMHO because of where they started and their success from last year. If they had sucked last year and came in unranked, they would not now be ranked because of their performances this year. Think a lot of people here are just saying objectively this team hasn't really put an impressive start to finish performance on the floor yet. And there's nothing wrong with that, but you have to take that into consideration if you're projecting their conference record..

14-15 lost to UTEP, Long Beach St, and Auburn.

13-14 underwent the absolute debacle st Atlantis and came much closer to losing to Evansville and BG than this years group has to Lehigh/Wake/Missouri (substantially better teams FWIW).

This team is a 60% FT shooting night at Colorado away from only having lost to the team with the country's best resume. I know this is imperfect, but this years group has as many KenPom top 100 wins as 13-14 and 14-15 combined. There is value in not losing. Last years non-con run was amazing, but this seasons' was pretty good too, especially if capped with a win at UC. It's true that the team hasn't aced the eye test yet, but the results are not mediocre.

[Caf]

I honestly go both ways with that. They have much better talent than 13-14/14-15 yes. But both of those teams went into conference season with 3 losses and wins over average to below average power conf teams. This team is ranked 17 IMHO because of where they started and their success from last year. If they had sucked last year and came in unranked, they would not now be ranked because of their performances this year. Think a lot of people here are just saying objectively this team hasn't really put an impressive start to finish performance on the floor yet. And there's nothing wrong with that, but you have to take that into consideration if you're projecting their conference record..

We have 1 bad loss and our non-conference schedule was not as easy as many have made it out to be. Of the teams with more wins than us, only UNC has a better non-conference strength of schedule. After 12 games, the rankings are pretty ironed out. Kenpom has us at 19.

My main point being that the statistics say we're a better team than a lot of fans. Astronomical expectations tend to do that.

[AviatorX]

We have 1 bad loss and our non-conference schedule was not as easy as many have made it out to be. Of the teams with more wins than us, only UNC has a better non-conference strength of schedule. After 12 games, the rankings are pretty ironed out. Kenpom has us at 19.

My main point being that the statistics say we're a better team than a lot of fans. Astronomical expectations tend to do that.

Good post. I would add that Colorado isn't a bad loss at all. Definitely felt that way because of how it went down and the value it may have added in March, but a 2 point road loss in Boulder is not a big deal on a resume.

[xufan2434]

14-15 lost to UTEP, Long Beach St, and Auburn.

13-14 underwent the absolute debacle st Atlantis and came much closer to losing to Evansville and BG than this years group has to Lehigh/Wake/Missouri (substantially better teams FWIW).

This team is a 60% FT shooting night at Colorado away from only having lost to the team with the country's best resume. I know this is imperfect, but this years group has as many KenPom top 100 wins as 13-14 and 14-15 combined. There is value in not losing. Last years non-con run was amazing, but this seasons' was pretty good too, especially if capped with a win at UC. It's true that the team hasn't aced the eye test yet, but the results are not mediocre.

That's fair. And in by no means am I trying to say those other 2 teams are close to this one. Just giving some perspective on how this year has gone so far in relation to how we're looking heading into conference play which is this topic. I think eye test wise, they're 4th right now. And idk if it's the length/athleticism or what but we always struggle with Seton Hall which would be 5th. 6-7 losses in conference esp with Myles confirmed not playing Providence is not completely crazy

[XUFan09]

I honestly go both ways with that. They have much better talent than 13-14/14-15 yes. But both of those teams went into conference season with 3 losses and wins over average to below average power conf teams. This team is ranked 17 IMHO because of where they started and their success from last year. If they had sucked last year and came in unranked, they would not now be ranked because of their performances this year. Think a lot of people here are just saying objectively this team hasn't really put an impressive start to finish performance on the floor yet. And there's nothing wrong with that, but you have to take that into consideration if you're projecting their conference record..

Both Kenpom and Sagarin rank Xavier in the top 25. The Massey Composite puts them at 18th. Keep in mind that by this point in the year, preseason weights that some efficiency rankings start with have mostly if not completely disappeared. Statistics are quantitative, not objective, but with all the data out there, statistics should be addressed in any objective claim. In the end, though, I am highly skeptical of any claims of objectivity by Xavier fans about Xavier. It's also funny when people mix up critical views with objectivity.


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[Drew]

Both Kenpom and Sagarin rank Xavier in the top 25. The Massey Composite puts them at 18th. Keep in mind that by this point in the year, preseason weights that some efficiency rankings start with have mostly if not completely disappeared. Statistics are quantitative, not objective, but with all the data out there, statistics should be addressed in any objective claim. In the end, though, I am highly skeptical of any claims of objectivity by Xavier fans about Xavier. It's also funny with people mix up critical views with objectivity.


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Nerddddd

[XUFan09]

Good post. I would add that Colorado isn't a bad loss at all. Definitely felt that way because of how it went down and the value it may have added in March, but a 2 point road loss in Boulder is not a big deal on a resume.
Yeah, it is basically never a bad loss when you lose on the road to a team likely to fall somewhere between 40-80. Closer to 40, it's the equivalent of losing to a top 25 team on a neutral court. Closer to 80, it's the equivalent of losing to a top 50 team on a neutral court.

The only context in which it might be considered a bad loss is if a team were going for a 1 seed. That's likely not going to be this team, even if they do really well in the conference schedule.

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[mirabilelectu]

This is one of the best Xavier teams in recent years. However, because they are not performing to expectations and more importantly, not performing on the level they did last year in the non-conference, "mediocre" has been thrown around a lot. Yes, the definition of mediocrity for the program has changed. In terms of increased expectations, that's a good thing, but it's still funny to see people call a good team mediocre.

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I think people are saying the are playing in a mediocre fashion, not the same as saying the team is mediocre.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Your feelings don't match up with data. The offensive and defensive efficiencies have both been ranked in the 20s all season, which definitely can't be said for most past teams. You're correct that their best win is Clemson, but that's a product of the schedule and losing two tough road games. Yes, playing a borderline top 50 team (Colorado) at their place is a tough road game unless you are a clear top 10 team (at which point, it's still challenging). Xavier was only slightly favored because of that, since, well, they're not a top 10 team.

People's unfulfilled expectations are skewing perceptions. Pair that with the team's inconsistency, and disappointed people will tend to see the negative side of the inconsistency more than than the positive side, even though this team plays well more than they play poorly. It's possible to be disappointed that they're not a top 10 team and still recognize that they're a good team.

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Is this what the kids call "keepin' it 100" ??

Agree 100%, reps.

[mirabilelectu]

Both Kenpom and Sagarin rank Xavier in the top 25. The Massey Composite puts them at 18th. Keep in mind that by this point in the year, preseason weights that some efficiency rankings start with have mostly if not completely disappeared. Statistics are quantitative, not objective, but with all the data out there, statistics should be addressed in any objective claim. In the end, though, I am highly skeptical of any claims of objectivity by Xavier fans about Xavier. It's also funny when people mix up critical views with objectivity.


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Your point re: stats is well taken. On paper, this team matches, or exceeds, the numbers of many of our other recent teams. But I'm surprised that you can watch how our team has performed this year and not be slightly concerned. I think they most troubling thing about this team is that we haven't seen them play at their assumed apex, whereas the other teams to which we are comparing this X team have had at least one game in which they showed their prowess. My worry is that our "best" is not what I had assumed, and the further worry is that we have seen our "best" already.

[Caf]

Yeah, it is basically never a bad loss when you lose on the road to a team likely to fall somewhere between 40-80. Closer to 40, it's the equivalent of losing to a top 25 team on a neutral court. Closer to 80, it's the equivalent of losing to a top 50 team on a neutral court.

The only context in which it might be considered a bad loss is if a team were going for a 1 seed. That's likely not going to be this team, even if they do really well in the conference schedule.

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Agreed. At this point it's not a bad loss. When we were #7 in the country a week prior (and a 1 seed was a possibility) it sure was.

[muskiefan82]

Here's what I have seen:

1. A team with an in-season tournament championship
2. A team with 2 tough road losses (one expected and one unexpected)
3. A team that wins with no real inside presence currently. Bunny after Bunny missed and no one trying to just jam it home.
4. A team that throws it around the perimeter until they shoot a 3 or drive and try to make something happen.
5. A team that other teams know has nothing inside so they pester the perimeter relentlessly
6. A team that still wins and has won games that they might have lost. I am hoping they learned something that will pay off later.

I think Davis gives this team maturity (on the court) and a floor leader to get them all in the right place AND get them off the floor for some needed rest. They will get better. I believe that. And better for this team, IMHO, can be ridiculously high.

[Caf]

Your point re: stats is well taken. On paper, this team matches, or exceeds, the numbers of many of our other recent teams. But I'm surprised that you can watch how our team has performed this year and not be slightly concerned. I think they most troubling thing about this team is that we haven't seen them play at their assumed apex, whereas the other teams to which we are comparing this X team have had at least one game in which they showed their prowess. My worry is that our "best" is not what I had assumed, and the further worry is that we have seen our "best" already.

That's a possibility, but again, the schedule hasn't been a cake walk. So if we came out of it with 2 losses, and not playing our best, then I think statistics and perception should lead to optimism.

[mirabilelectu]

That's a possibility, but again, the schedule hasn't been a cake walk. So if we came out of it with 2 losses, and not playing our best, then I think statistics and perception should lead to optimism.

I can see that. I guess it comes down to perspective: the schedule hasn't been a murderers row either, so while I was ready to accept losses on the road, I was wholly unprepared to watch us win most of our games in very unconvincing fashion. I think it's fair to use our wins, as well as our losses, to forecast the BEAST record. A few more of our wins could easily have been losses, and would have been if the contests had been against some of our BEAST foes.

[XUFan09]

I think people are saying the are playing in a mediocre fashion, not the same as saying the team is mediocre.
I think this is an important distinction that you're making and I agree that they're playing poorly relative to their talent, but I don't think everyone using the label of mediocre has that same interpretation. I really do believe that the raised expectations for the program has led to new standards for what is mediocre or average, possibly unrealistic standards. This is not a mediocre Xavier team, but if in the future it becomes one by historical comparison, then the program has done extremely well.

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[GOX]

I think it is hard to talk about " expectations" and playing below their talent without looking at the players.
Bluett is the only returner playing at expectation.
Summers, omara and Macura are returners playing below expectations, each to varying degrees.
Bernard and Gaston are playing at expectation, Goodin below, Kaiser Gates is still playing scared.
Here is the problem: Omara just has not developed and is at a point where Mack can not afford to give him Big East minutes based on his showing.
Gaston and Jones lack the height to score against the big guys.
We have a below average inside game.
The perimeter game had to be best in the league to compensate for the inside game.

[waggy]

No worse than 12-6. + Beat UC = 3 seed.

[muskiefan82]

I think I will feel better about things after a Xavier victory over Providence as I feel that will be a gauge for performance against the lower half of the BE. If X can win convincingly at home against Providence, then things look better for games home and away against St. Johns, DePaul, Marquette, and Georgetown.

I feel better. That was exactly what I wanted to see tonight.

[xufan2434]

I feel better. That was exactly what I wanted to see tonight.

Much, much better. And I don't think anyone was panicking or writing this team off.. We just haven't seen this team put it all together like we know they can. Well last night they did. Those first 8 minutes of the 2nd half were by far the best they've played this season. Trevon was absolutely balling all night. He is a man on a mission right now to get his. I thought they had the perfect combination of unselfishness as well as taking their guy off the bounce when needed. I know Providence isn't a great rebounding team, but X (and specifically Tre) grabbing every defensive board is going to be so big in conference play.

And Ed.. was really really excited by his play. He might not have it all there yet with his shot, but he was aggressive and setting up his teammates non stop. And even when he had a couple bad turnovers, his defense was relentless. I swear there was a period of 3/4 straight possessions where he had a block or deflection. If they can play good team defense night in/night out they have a chance to take it

[Porkopolis]

13-5

[markchal]

And Ed.. was really really excited by his play. He might not have it all there yet with his shot, but he was aggressive and setting up his teammates non stop. And even when he had a couple bad turnovers, his defense was relentless. I swear there was a period of 3/4 straight possessions where he had a block or deflection. If they can play good team defense night in/night out they have a chance to take it

Mack was pretty on point when he said Ed had a terrible first half and a terrific second. We need more of that second half Ed, where he's more aggressive and goes to that pull up jumper a little bit more. That looked like the Ed I thought we'd see this year and the one that will get drafted in the first round.

[Xuperman]

Elementary Watson.......Sweep 3 teams, get swept by 2 and split the rest. 10-8. Road wins will be hard to come by as BU proved yesterbay.

[Masterofreality]

Tough league this year, man.

Hard to see better than 12-6.

[xukeith]

Very tough conference.

Home: 8-1

Away: 6-3

Lose to UC (being conservative..hope I am wrong).

14-4 BE record

2 seed.

[letskeepitreal]

After watching DePaul,and St. John's the last couple of games, the Big East is going to be brutal.

[birdman71]

12-6
W at UC

[XUMIOH12]

12-6 is my BE play prediction. And not sure why everyone wants to post their predictions for the UC game in the "Predict the Big East Record" thread lol

[Muskeagle]

12-6 is my BE play prediction. And not sure why everyone wants to post their predictions for the UC game in the "Predict the Big East Record" thread lol

Because GOX, who started the thread, included his/her prediction of Big East record AND Shootout result. Perhaps misnamed, but people have been following the template laid out in the original post. Seems logical to predict ALL the games remaining in the regular season when the Conference season begins...even if there is a non-conference game is squeezed in there.

[paulxu]

In looking at conference schedules for the last few years, almost all the games have good spacing.
Sat - Tues, or Sun - Wed; gaps like that.
For some reason each year there is at least one set of games that have one day rest.
So this year its Sat - Mon for the Butler - Creighton games.
That equals a really tough stretch:
Tues @ #1 Nova, Sat @#18 Butler, Mon #10 Creighton.

You would think they could work it out so there was always at least 2 days of rest between games.
Plus, the Creighton game on Monday is at 2 PM. I guess that's because it's MLK day, and they hope for people off for a holiday.

[Xuperman]

Well now that the first 6 are in the books, nothing really surprising so far. My prediction of 10-8 still seems most likely and I think most of us would be OK with that but anything less would be a major disappointment for sure.

[drudy23]

Anything less than 10-8 is bubble territory.

[XMuskieFTW]

Well now that the first 6 are in the books, nothing really surprising so far. My prediction of 10-8 still seems most likely and I think most of us would be OK with that but anything less would be a major disappointment for sure.

10-8 would be a disappointment. Only 3 games left vs ranked teams in conference and two are at home. 5 more losses would be bad.

[AviatorX]

10-8 would be a disappointment. Only 3 games left vs ranked teams in conference and two are at home. 5 more losses would be bad.

On top of that, not sure how 8 losses "still seems most likely."

[bleedXblue]

I don't know how you look at this team and see more than 10-11 wins.

We don't shoot it well. Not a single player over 40% from 3 PT. FT's are a concern as well
We turn it over a bunch. Many of these are unforced lately.
We don't create a lot of easy buckets with TO's
We don't create good shots through executing whatever offense we run
We don't have a leader

Sorry to rail, but this team is teetering right now.

In order to win some games on the road and beat good teams at home, significant improvement is needed and I don't think this team can shoot themselves out of this. Just not enough "good", "consistent" shooters. It's going to have to be taking better care of the ball and playing better defense. IMHO

[Xuperman]

On top of that, not sure how 8 losses "still seems most likely."
It is like this. We should get 3 more road wins and probably will lose 2 more at home. Then hopefully go 4-3 on the other 7. Do you see 4 road wins?

[AviatorX]

It is like this. We should get 3 more road wins and probably will lose 2 more at home. Then hopefully go 4-3 on the other 7. Do you see 4 road wins?

I don't think it's a stretch to see X beating any (or all) of DePaul, St Johns, Providence, Marquette, or Seton Hall on the road. Chalking up the latter 2 as losses seems like an overreaction to me. But that's what you do.

Edit: yes, I know how things have gone in Newark the last few years, but it can't be like that forever.

[D-West & PO-Z]

If we lose 2 more home games that would be a huge disappointment. Obviously I think Nova beating us at home is likely but no one else after that. I think we beat Butler at home.

[Xville]

If we lose 2 more home games that would be a huge disappointment. Obviously I think Nova beating us at home is likely but no one else after that. I think we beat Butler at home.

I think we are 2-5 against Seton Hall since we joined the league. We can very easily lose against them or Butler at home. We shouldn't but it is definitely possible, and I would go so far as to say that it is probable we will lose to one of them at home. This X team right now has not shown us they are capable of beating good teams yet. People will point to Clemson and Wake's "numbers" but if you truly believe those are good teams, then I'm not sure what basketball you all are watching.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I think we are 2-5 against Seton Hall since we joined the league. We can very easily lose against them or Butler at home. We shouldn't but it is definitely possible, and I would go so far as to say that it is probable we will lose to one of them at home. This X team right now has not shown us they are capable of beating good teams yet. People will point to Clemson and Wake's "numbers" but if you truly believe those are good teams, then I'm not sure what basketball you all are watching.

Seton Hall is a good team?

[drudy23]

Nothing is a given on the road. Butler lost to St Johns. But unfortunately, we've put ourselves in a position to have to win to avoid the bad loss. We don't have many great wins to balance it out.

Completely different story if we go 2-1 in this stretch and then lay an egg vs DePaul.

[AviatorX]

I really haven't been too impressed with Seton Hall or Marquette this season -- as far as teams X has played, I'd have no problem grouping them with Wake, Utah, Clemson, etc. The "numbers" agree with that.

That said, I do understand why X fans (including myself to an extent) hold Seton Hall in higher regard than maybe we should as long as Xavier killer Desi Rodriguez is on the roster.

[markchal]

I expect us to lose at least one and likely two of the road games against Marq, SH, SJU, Providence.

[Xuperman]

As of yesterday's BE hoopfest, there is clear separation between the top 3 and the rest. All 3 have multiple big time W's in the books. The other 7 not so much, however X, SHU, and MU are in the 2nd group of 3 with realistic NCAA tourney hopes. I think our record against these 2 will be critical in getting over or under 10 BE wins. Must at least split with them. Can not lose to either at home. If we can sweep both......12-6 would look nice!!!!

[Xville]

Seton Hall is a good team?

Maybe not but they have had our number since x joined the league.

[xufan2434]

Seton Hall is a good team?

They still have Carrington, Rodriguez, and Delgado. They could very well beat X at SH the way X is playing right now. Obviously they just lost 3 straight as well, but at least they have a win over a ranked opponent. More than X has at the moment

[AviatorX]

They still have Carrington, Rodriguez, and Delgado. They could very well beat X at SH the way X is playing right now. Obviously they just lost 3 straight as well, but at least they have a win over a ranked opponent. More than X has at the moment

True, but conveniently it was a "neutral" (MSG) game against South Carolina (behind Clemson in KP and lost to them at home) without South Carolina's best player.

[markchal]

didn't we struggle on the road against GT?

[mirabilelectu]

didn't we struggle on the road against GT?

Yea, I don't know how people are confidently forecasting roadkills.

[D-West & PO-Z]

They still have Carrington, Rodriguez, and Delgado. They could very well beat X at SH the way X is playing right now. Obviously they just lost 3 straight as well, but at least they have a win over a ranked opponent. More than X has at the moment

I never said they couldnt beat X. I was simply replying to someone saying we havent shown we can beat good teams (stating Wake and Clemson arent good) and implying Seton Hall we could lose to because we havent beat good teams. Seton Hall isnt much above Wake and Clemson in my book. Not syaing we couldnt lose to them but we have beat teams similar to them.

[mid major]

Seton Hall is a good team?

Yes, we make every BE team a good team when we play them. The way we are playing now I can see 9-9 being a distinct possibility.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Yes, we make every BE team a good team when we play them. The way we are playing now I can see 9-9 being a distinct possibility.

Seems a little dramatic. Ask Providence and St. Johns how they feel about that.

[mid major]

Seems a little dramatic. Ask Providence and St. Johns how they feel about that.

I just don't see this team beating any team right now on the road. As of right now we lose to PC and SJU on the road. If I were the opposing coach I would put in my walk-ons and let them hack and foul Gaston every time he touched the ball. I would dare him to sink free throws. I hope I'm wrong but they've shown nothing which would make me buy. There is no Koolaid to drink.

[AviatorX]

I just don't see this team beating any team right now on the road. As of right now we lose to PC and SJU on the road. If I were the opposing coach I would put in my walk-ons and let them hack and foul Gaston every time he touched the ball. I would dare him to sink free throws. I hope I'm wrong but they've shown nothing which would make me buy. There is no Koolaid to drink.

And you would feel differently about this if (on any other day) one of Gaston's putbacks dropped and X was sitting at 4-2?

[gladdenguy]

I agree MM. St. Johns on the road is frightening. Depaul is even frightening the way this team plays on the road. I will be happy with an end of conference record of 10-8.

I said 11-7 or 12-6 a couple months ago but I think that is a stretch after thinking Tre, Ed, and JP were all better than they have played this entire year. After seeing this team also struggle to hit free throws, hit big shots, and turn the ball over at critical times, I just don't see how they go through the rest of the league schedule and only lose 3 more games. No way. Especially when they have to play Butler and Nova at home, Creighton on the road, Marquette X2, Seton Hall X2, and @Providence, @Depaul, and @St. Johns. There is probably 5 or 6 losses unless this team seriously gets their shit together. Could it happen? Yes. Will it happen? Probably not based on what we've seen.

9-9 would hopefully get them in the tourney but that is also putting your fate in the hands of the committee. 8-10 with losses to the Big 3 in the conference (Nova, Creighton, and Butler) would probably be out with no good out of conference wins or even good league wins.

[bleedXblue]

And you would feel differently about this if (on any other day) one of Gaston's putbacks dropped and X was sitting at 4-2?

I wouldn't.......the team still has gaping holes.

[XMuskieFTW]

I'm sticking with my original 13-5.

[mid major]

And you would feel differently about this if (on any other day) one of Gaston's putbacks dropped and X was sitting at 4-2?

I would also feel differently if Sumner had dished off to Myles and not committed the charge. I would feel differently if Myles had scored a two pointer and I would feel much differently if Bronson Koenig's last second 3 pointer had missed.

[Xuperman]

Elementary Watson.......Sweep 3 teams, get swept by 2 and split the rest. 10-8. Road wins will be hard to come by as BU proved yesterbay.

This method of predicting our conference record seemed logical then and I believe it will hold true..........Go X!!!

[xukeith]

Hope XU can pull a Shaka Smart VCU or a UConn and come in to NCAA predicted to be 1 and out then shock the world.

[XfansinKy]

Hope XU can pull a Shaka Smart VCU or a UConn and come in to NCAA predicted to be 1 and out then shock the world.

I was thinking just that. Why not? If JP, Kaiser, and/or one other teammate gets hot, they could definitely win a couple NCAA first weekend games. Just gotta win the next game for now though.