2016 Kentucky Derby

[LutherRackleyRulez]

The 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby

"The Most Exciting Two Minutes in Sports"

is set for Saturday, May 7th.....




https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard




http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/04/sports/the-kentucky-derby-dartboard-week-1.html?ref=sports

[LutherRackleyRulez]

BTW...

Jockey Calvin "Bo'rail" Borel retired recently......



http://www.whas11.com/sports/horses/churchill-downs-releases-statement-on-jockey-calvin-borels-retirement/110234162

[LutherRackleyRulez]

New Favorite Emerges....




http://www.oddsshark.com/horse-racing/kentucky-derby-odds

[xu82]

Mel sighting soon?

[LutherRackleyRulez]

All 3 Derby Prep races set for tomorrow, April 9


Wood Memorial from Aqueducr

Blue Grass Stakes from Keeneland

Santa Anita Derby from Santa Anita


will be broadcast by NBCSN.....




http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/98913/nbcsn-set-for-coverage-of-key-derby-preps

[LutherRackleyRulez]

2016 Wood Memorial winner...



Outwork...



http://www.drf.com/news/outwork-game-hangs-wood-memorial-victory

[LutherRackleyRulez]

2016 Blue Grass Stakes winner...



Brody's Cause...



http://www.drf.com/news/brodys-cause-rebounds-strongly-blue-grass-stakes

[LutherRackleyRulez]

2016 Santa Anita Derby winner...



Exaggerator...



http://www.drf.com/news/exaggerator-carries-desormeaux-brothers-kentucky-derby

[LutherRackleyRulez]

Zipse's Big Ten......




http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/2016_Kentucky_Derby_Zipses_Big_Ten_2016411_123#

[Juice]

Someone smarter than me answer this for me: How good is Songbird? Are the owners dumb for not aiming for the Derby instead of the Oaks?

[paulxu]

God lord...there's a horse named MOR.

[SemajParlor]

Nyquist looked very impressive at the Florida Derby. Looks to be the real deal.

[LutherRackleyRulez]

2016 Arkansas Derby winner...


Creator...




http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/horseracing/2016/04/16/creator-pulls-away-to-win-1-million-arkansas-derby/83139618/

[LutherRackleyRulez]

NYT: KY Derby Dartboard...Week 3.....





http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/18/sports/horse-racing/the-kentucky-derby-dartboard-week-3.html?_r=0

[Emp]

Someone smarter than me answer this for me: How good is Songbird? Are the owners dumb for not aiming for the Derby instead of the Oaks?

I'd like to know as well. Where's Mel and Bourbonman?

Luther, you can put all races in one post and edit/update.

[Juice]

I'd like to know as well. Where's Mel and Bourbonman?

Luther, you can put all races in one post and edit/update.

I guess it's moot now because she's being held out of the Oaks with a fever. That's tough luck.

[paulxu]

I'm going with the long shot MOR. He's a mudder and I hope it rains.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

If it rains you want Exaggerator.

Good Racing Luck!

[LutherRackleyRulez]

Cupid is out of the "Running for the Roses"...




http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/04/18/sports/ap-rac-derby-cupid-.html?ref=sports&_r=0

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Current Derby Odds (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_files/Kentucky_derby_future_odds_April_20_2016.pdf), courtesy Wynn Las Vegas.

Good Racing Luck!

[bourbonman]

Current Derby Odds (http://www.thedowneyprofile.com/sm_files/Kentucky_derby_future_odds_April_20_2016.pdf), courtesy Wynn Las Vegas.

Good Racing Luck!

Even at 45/1 I'm wouldn't put a dime on Cupid since he had surgery this past Monday. I'm watching Mohaymen myself. Even with a horrible last time out I think he's a strong player. Disappointed that performance didn't drop his odds more. There will be money to be made this year.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

I'm with you on Mohayman, Bourbon.

Here are some early thoughts on the Gray:

Mohaymen: Highly-respected and well-liked trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has never won a Derby. Early Derby Trail favorite has been banished to KYD handicapping Siberia after finishing fourth to Nyquist in their Florida Derby matchup. His only loss in six races and in retrospect, the horses he beat are no longer on the Trail. Had run well over Gulfstream Park surface previously, so track, even while it wasn't fast, is weak excuse. So do you draw a line through the last and take what will be generous Derby Day odds for a once beaten, one-time wonderhorse?

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Quarter of a mile to go and we turn for home on the 2016 Derby Trail!

These key sites and sources will allow you to not only develop an informed betting strategy for The First Saturday in May (http://www.amazon.com/First-Saturday-May-Brad-Hennegan/dp/B002OVB9RG/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1461416526&sr=8-1&keywords=first+saturday+in+may), but also sparkle at the Derby Party of your choice which is the real reason to follow this thread.

My commentary will serve to inform and/or annoy: your call.

Mike Watchmaker and Jay Privman post DRF Derby Watch (http://www.drf.com/derby-watch) each week, the Cliff's Notes of the Derby season.

DRF Road to the Derby (http://www.drf.com/road-kentucky-derby) has videos, charts and analysis of all the the prep races.

Steve Haskin's Derby Dozen (http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/), is longer form and totally accessible. Print it out and grab a highlighter.

The Twin Spires Blog (http://www.twinspires.com/blog?page=1) has Derby and Oaks news and more. Look for James Scully's posts -- he's great.

The Brisnet Ultimate Kentucky Derby Poll (http://horseracingradio.net/node/1097), has tons of great insight and commentary, but is poorly laid out. This link (http://horseracingradio.net/node/1121) should get you where you need to be. Let me know.

Hello Race Fans (http://helloracefans.com/features/derby-prep-alert/) is a site I just discovered. It's well-laid out and appears to have good info and regular updates. Eager to see what it provides as Derby Day approaches.

At the Races with Steve Byk is on Sirius 220 in the mornings and podcasts and a live stream link can be found here. (http://stevebyk.com/) It's a great show, particularly the interviews with the ink-stained wretches who go to the track at 5AM so you don't have to.

Follow Steve Byk, Jay Privman, Mike Watchmaker, Steve Haskins, Ed DeRosa, Kentucky Derby Contenders on Twitter.

So much more to come!

Post comments, observations, questions!

Nothing beats talking horses as April turns to May.

Good Racing Luck!

[waggy]

I was worried about Mel.. But now all is well.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

God lord...there's a horse named MOR.

Paul, you'll be pleased to know that favorite Nyquist has the same owner (Paul Reddam), trainer (Doug O'Neil), and jockey (Mario Gutierrez) as . . . . . . I'll Have Another.

[GoMuskies]

On a related note, the Breeder's Cup is coming back to Louisville in 2018. It's way too long for it to be away, but I'm excited for its return!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Thoughts about Mor Spirit from a few days back:

MOR Spirit:Baffert’s entry. Seven lifetime races, betting favorite in each: three wins, four places; Second by two lengths two races back, second by 6 in Santa Anita Derby last out behind Exaggerator on sloppy track. Gary Stevens up. Passes horses late, but second place finishes last two out are a concern. Can he be gotten started soon enough and close completely in the final sixteenth to win?

Baffert trained him fast/early, slow/late earlier today. That's different from both a traditional training regimen that goes slow/early, fast/late and from Baffert's preferred method: fast/fast/fast/fast. Maybe Baffert is sensing Mor Spirit's best opportunity is to be urged forward early and leave himself less work to do late. Ya think?

Good Racing Luck!

[paulxu]

Paul, you'll be pleased to know that favorite Nyquist has the same owner (Paul Reddam), trainer (Doug O'Neil), and jockey (Mario Gutierrez) as . . . . . . I'll Have Another.

Whoa Nellie. Are you trying to get me off MOR?
I admit this is tempting...but there's no blood connection between my favorite horse of all time and Nyquist, right?
Besides, it sounds like a nighttime cold remedy.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

No blood to speak of between I'll Have Another (http://www.pedigreequery.com/ill+have+another2) and Nyquist. (http://www.pedigreequery.com/nyquist)

Both cross-bred to Northern Dancer a ways back. He's a major sire.

Sleep easy.

Good Racing Luck.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Santa Anita Handicapper John White has developed a "Strike System" for selecting a group of most likely Derby winners.

He has posted this year's analysis here. (http://www.xpressbet.com/ReadPostTime?id=16406)

His "Prime Group" has a lot to recommend it and one WTH -- the remarkable Lani who has been appearing for workouts in an aroused state and then refusing to train. I kid you not, these are animals, folks.

ZERO STRIKES/ONE STRIKE (THE PRIME GROUP)
Brody’s Cause
Creator
Exaggerator
Gun Runner
Lani
Mohaymen
Mor Spirit
Nyquist
Oscar Nominated
Outwork

Is your nag on John White's short list?

Good Racing Luck!

[Emp]

The Rulz prevent me from ripping, or repping.

"Aroused state?" I so love racing dialect. Or is it a patois?

Mel is The Man.

[GoMuskies]

Looking forward to opening night Saturday night at Churchill. The wife and kids are out of town, so I'll probably have a bourbon or twelve, fire up TwinSpires.com and make a night of it. Yes, I'm a real wild man these days.

[paulxu]

I'm sticking with that MOR nag, since Mel advises bloodline is very distant with I'll Have Another (one of my all time favorite horses).

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

James Scully's latest Kentucky Derby Report (http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2016/4/28/kentucky-derby-report-428-final-profile-contestants-entering-derby-week): Attention Must Be Paid!

Good Racing Luck!

[Emp]

James Scully's latest Kentucky Derby Report (http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2016/4/28/kentucky-derby-report-428-final-profile-contestants-entering-derby-week): Attention Must Be Paid!

Good Racing Luck!

You're a great Salesman, Mel.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Your Daily Lani Update, compliments of Bloodhorse: (http://i.bloodhorse.com/daily-app/pdfs/BloodHorseDaily-20160428.pdf)

"(Jockey) Take said Lani's temperament is such that he's not always willing to run, but 'if he wants to run on Derby Day, we have a big chance.'"

Good Racing Luck, indeed!

[Masterofreality]

I'm sticking with that MOR nag, since Mel advises bloodline is very distant with I'll Have Another (one of my all time favorite horses).

Never trust anything with the term "MOR" in the name.

As for this Kentucky native boy with a piece of an 8 seat box at Churchill, Mohaymen is the pick!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Wow.

Did I find a cool Derby site. (http://www.trackphantom.com/KyDerby.html)

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Wow.

Did I find a cool Derby site. (http://www.trackphantom.com/KyDerby.html)

Good Racing Luck!

Sweet.

The guy even included an annotated pdf of Daily Racing Form Past Performances!
(http://www.trackphantom.com/DerbyContenders2016.pdf)

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Kentucky Oaks Morning Line Odds here. (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/211308/rachels-valentina-7-2-oaks-favorite)

I like Lewis Bay.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Free Past Performances for both Derby and Oaks at Brisnet (http://www.brisnet.com/)(look in the right column).

Horses listed by points, not post position (those will come later), but handy!

Good Racing Luck!

[bourbonman]

With Post Positions to be drawn this evening, I'm eager to see what horses I can throw out that get the 1 or 2 hole. Still am extremely high on Mohaymen and have respect for Nyquist and Exaggerator within my super. Mor Spirit will also play strong. Horse I'm warming up to is Gun Runner, especially if he maintains double digit odds. Heard he's had some behavior and gagging issues, but never in a race.

Favorite in the Oaks, Rachel Valentina I'm hoping only clips 4th. Looking for Weep No More, Lewis Bay and Land Over Sea in the tri. Cathryn Sophia must be respected so I'll need to include her somehow.

Heading to the track this afternoon with work team to play the usual awful and small entry field of CD. Yet, beverages are free so no complaints.

Good luck to all.

[LutherRackleyRulez]

2016 Kentucky Derby Post Drawing @ 5:30 this evening

will be broadcast by NBCSN....



http://www.cleveland.com/sports/index.ssf/2016/05/2016_kentucky_derby_post_time.html

[GoMuskies]

I didn't realize Rachel Alexandra had a daughter all grown up and ready to win the Oaks. Rachel Alexandra was an amazing racehorse.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

The First Rule of Derby Betting is never to allow yourself to be talked off a horse.

That being said, the word on Mohaymen is that he's all fired up, and connections are trying to walk / school him back into line.

Not surprising for a son of Tapit whose offspring can be high-strung.

There are two other Tapit's in the race: Creator, who I'm very high on and . . . Lani!

Good Racing Luck! Especially Bourbonman today!

[paulxu]

The First Rule of Derby Betting is never to allow yourself to be talked off a horse.

Well, you know I follow that rule.

If MOR is laying 3/4 at the turn, he'll run down Nyquist at the wire.

(Just like the real MOR, who wanders into an arena with a cheap ticket someplace, and at the buzzer I see him sitting courtside by the team.)

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

In case it comes up in random smalltalk this afternoon, Fellowship is the BubbleHorse.

21st of 20; outside looking in.

Good Racing Luck!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

In case it comes up in random smalltalk this afternoon, Fellowship is the BubbleHorse.

21st of 20; outside looking in.

Good Racing Luck!

Fellowship: Intriguing entry. Eleven starts, more than any other. Two wins, three places, three shows. Interestingly the three third-place finishes are his last three races. These are the Florida Derby, Fountain of Youth, and Holy Bull -- the Florida prep series -- whose winners were Nyquist, Mohaymen, and Mohaymen, respectively. Not fast, but keeps running. Lots of late runners in this field, but he’s experienced in good company and could be there at the end for a piece.

[LutherRackleyRulez]

2016 Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Morning Line Odds.....



http://www.sbnation.com/2016/5/4/11592090/2016-kentucky-derby-post-positions-draw-live-nyquist-mohaymen

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

In case you are are traveling this weekend.
(https://twitter.com/kentuckyderby/status/728042536694992896)
Good Racing Luck!

[GIMMFD]

I'm really upset nobody has used this yet, so I'm going to throw it out there:

Talk derby to me.

[Emp]

I'm really upset nobody has used this yet, so I'm going to throw it out there:

Talk derby to me.

.......but you can leave your hat on.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

.......but you can leave your hat on.

For GIMMFD . . . and my Randy Newman Brofriend, EMP.

For amusement and edification only:


Trojan Nation:Three maidens (horses who have never won a race) have won the Kentucky Derby: Buchanan (1894), Sir Barton (1919), and Brokers Tip (1933). Brokers Tip is a great name for a horse. Since then, only nine others have attempted the feat, the most recent being Nationalore who cruised to a 9th place finish in 1998. Trojan Nation, having finished no better than third in five races in California finished second in the slop in NYC in the Wood at 81-1. Oh: and he’s not very fast. If TJ doesn’t hit the board it won’t be because of the dreaded PP#1. Good luck to the connections, and bombs away.

Suddenbreakingnews:Part of the Arkansas Troika. I like him much more than Whitmore, not as much as Creator. Comes from a lonnnngggg way back. It worked in the Southwest in February; he failed (5th) as a favorite in the Rebel in March, then got passed by and couldn’t run down Creator in the Arkansas Derby in April. Far from impossible, especially underneath in trifectas and supers. Use him. Spike Cooley XU'19's pick.

Creator:Arkansas Derby winner is a deep closer whose performance and speed figures have blossomed late and keep improving. DingDingDing!!! Prefer him to the other two ARD entrants Whitmore and Suddenbreakingnews. Trainer Asmussen is hinting that Creator will be placed more forward in KYD than in preps. Asmussen wouldn’t care, but that sounds like a real good idea to me. Two second place finishes at CD as a two year-old. From a Peruvian mare!

Mo Tom:As has been pointed out re: this race chocked full of appealing late closers, a late closer leaves himself at much higher risk of finding trouble on his trip than a horse placed closer to the pace. And better horses are less prone to trip trouble because they are fast and handy enough to hit holes that lesser horses can’t get to or get caught in. Mo Tom has been in trouble all winter and all spring long. So why do I like him? Besides the fact that my daughter’s name is Maureen and my name is Tom? He’s a late mover who was indeed passing horses when he found trouble in his last two, so there’s that. His speed figures aren’t all THAT bad for such bad trips. And I sense that somewhere in this field there’s a horse for whom everything is going to go right on Saturday. My longest WIN money will be on Mo Tom. Another Uncle Mo colt (like Nyquist), he is owned by Saints owner Tom Benson.

Gun Runner:Won two races in the Louisiana series, the Risen Star in February and the Louisiana Derby at the end of March. Has run well at CD: two starts, a maiden win and a fourth place finish in the mud. Turf-trained jockey Francois Geroux is a rising star himself: A crafty and exciting rider. Not a need the lead type, Gun Runner raced close to the lead in both of his preps, took the lead turning for home and lengthened his margin at each of the last two calls. I love that kind of tactical speed in the hands of a turf rider like Geroux. Gun Runner may need just a little more speed than tactics to seal the deal on Saturday, but he’s a must play for me.

My Man Sam:Late-blooming, late-running NY-based colt trained by Chad Brown. A win and two places in three starts. Finished second in the Bluegrass in April coming from far off pace. Speedy in two back Allowance, finishing strongly. In a race with plenty of closers to chose from, he will be the choice of the East Coast Wise Guys. There’s something to be said for getting good at the right time.

Oscar Nominated:Ken and Sarah Ramsey-owned, Mike Maker-trained turf runner won the Spiral Stakes on poly at Turfway to qualify. That’s called following the script. I said . . . “That’s called following the script. . .” Superbly bred for turf running (Kitten’s Joy / Theatrical mare) but simply has not shown the kind of speed needed to recommend. Ramseys will pay $200k to enter him late in the KYD. He wasn’t even Triple Crown Nominated. Bah-dump-bump.

Lani:Japan-based runner qualified with a win in the UAE Derby at the end of March. Six starts, three wins, one place. Richly bred for dirt performance (AP Indy line) with additional class from a mare whose daddy is KYD winner Sunday Silence. That’s all anybody knows. That and his remarkably flaky performances at workouts for the past two weeks. UAE Derby winners have never hit the board in the Kentucky Derby. He’s all yours.

Destin:Pletcher-trained entrant will stand in Derby gate having not raced for eight weeks and having never raced beyond a mile-and-a-sixteenth. All final 100-point Derby preps are 1 ⅛ mile. Has anyone ever used the KYD as a tightener for the Preakness? Earned shot with one length victory over Outwork in Tampa Bay Derby on 8 March. Expect him in the second flight, he has not needed the lead to win. I can’t see it, but owners believe in analytics that say the layoff is proper and called for. OK . . .

Whitmore:No, thanks. “Lost ground from the stretch call to the finish line in the Southwest, the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby – and his only two wins have come at six furlongs.” Hat Tip: James Scully. (http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2016/4/28/kentucky-derby-report-428-final-profile-contestants-entering-derby-week) Won his first race impressively at CD six races back last fall.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Exaggerator:Keith (trainer) and Kent (jockey) Desormeaux seek to be first Brother Act to win KYD. Highest and most consistent speed figures in the field. Four of nine lifetime, won the Santa Anita in the slop after a show and a place in two earlier California preps. Some hold his sloppy Santa Anita win against him; I don’t. But the track will be fast on Saturday, so no advantage from that experience. I expect him to be one of the first to move on the early pace horses and expect him to be in the mix in the stretch. Can’t think of a bad thing to say about this son of wonderhorse Curlin out of a Vindication (BC Juvenile winner) mare. Only circumstance -- he gets assigned post position #1 (he didn’t); he freaks himself into too much early use; a gate issue; Lani bites him in the paddock, etc. -- can eliminate him. There’s lots to like about Exaggerator: I kid you not.


Tom’s Ready:Ran the best race of his career by far last out when he finished second at 30-1 behind Gun Runner in the Louisiana Derby. One win and four seconds in nine career starts. A win (7f), a place (1M), and an eighth place finish (1 1/16) as he stretched out at CD as a two year-old. Trainer Dallas Stewart has seen two of his long, longshots finish second in the Derby recently, Golden Soul (35-1) in 2013 and Commanding Curve (37-1) in 2014. Mo Tom has placed second in three of his last four. Remember: you don’t need to cash Win Tickets to make money on a horse race. Owner is Tom Benson, owner of the New Orleans Saints.

Nyquist:There’s no reason not to back him, unless you like trying to beat favorites . . . which is what makes racetrack degeneracy so . . . appealing. Champion two year-old and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, he’s undefeated in seven career starts, winning on four different tracks in California, Kentucky, and most recently Florida. His match race in the Florida Derby with Mohayman turned into a three length victory over Majesto. He has been in the lead for the stretch call in his last six races, but doesn’t need the lead to get there. Some will say he’s not suited for distance because his sire, Uncle Mo, never won at 1 ¼ miles. But Uncle Mo was retired by injury before he had the chance to race at that distance -- and he has two other colts in the Derby (Outwork and Mo Tom) -- who aren’t impossible. Same connections -- owner, trainer, jockey -- as 2012 KYD winner I’ll Have Another.

Mohaymen:Highly-respected and well-liked trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has never won a Derby. Early Derby Trail favorite has been banished to KYD handicapping Siberia after finishing fourth to Nyquist in their Florida Derby matchup. His only loss in six races and in retrospect, the horses he beat are no longer on the Trail. Had run well over Gulfstream Park surface previously, so track is weak excuse. So do you draw a line through the last and take what will be generous Derby Day odds for a once beaten, one-time wonderhorse? Enjoyed a speedy workout upon arrival at CD -- and hasn’t slowed down. Some are worried that he’s too wound up. Trying to calm him down with equipment modifications. Kinda late in the game for that.

Outwork:Trained by Todd Pletcher, owned by (vitaminwater Founder) Mike Repole; One of three sons of Uncle Mo in the race (Nyquist and Mo Tom). Lightly raced as a two-year old, but fast and effective in two Derby preps; Four starts, three wins, one place. Won sloppy, ugly Wood Memorial last month by holding off 84-1 Trojan Nation in sundial-timed stretch run. John Velazquez will have him forwardly placed (perhaps on pace with Danzing Candy) for top of stretch bid. Can he stay at 1¼ if he goes to the lead? They say he’s a huge, gorgeous horse.

Shagaf:(Pronounced “sha-GAFFE”) Chad Brown-trained son of Bernardini (grandson of AP Indy) was the hope of the New York prep circuit before finishing fifth in the mud in the Wood Memorial. The NYC wise guys are pissed at him now; many have fled to My Man Sam. Three wins in three tries before that, but the step forward that he needed not only didn’t happen, it didn’t happen in a slow, ugly race. Same deal as Mohaymen: you’ll get inflated odds on Derby Day for a horse that has only done one thing wrong . . . so far.

Mor Spirit:Baffert’s entry. Seven lifetime races, betting favorite in each: three wins, four places; Second by two lengths two races back, second by 6 in Santa Anita Derby last out behind Exaggerator on sloppy track. Second on a sloppy CD track last fall. Gary Stevens up. Passes horses late, but second place finishes last two out are a concern. He stayed close enough to the pace, but couldn ‘t move past the leader to win. Can he be gotten started soon enough and close completely in the final eighth to win? But Baffert-trained Derby winners Silver Charm & Real Quiet also finished second in their final two preps. I’m tossing this Baffert/Stevens entry. What balls I have.

Majesto:Gulfstream Park runner broke his maiden on fifth try then finished second in the Nyquist vs. Mohaymen Florida Derby for points to qualify. Late mover with undistinguished speed figures. Hard to back here with all the other choices.

Brody’s Cause:Remember last year when I said that the city of Louisville will burn to the ground the year that native son Dale Romans wins his first Kentucky Derby? Citizens of Louisville: Is your homeowner’s insurance paid up? I picked Brody’s Cause out last fall when he broke his maiden at CD then won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, beating Exaggerator. He ran a solid, closing third to Nyquist in the Breeders’ Cup Juvie at Keeneland. This year he was a dud in the Tampa Bay Derby in March then ran to a convincing 1 ¾ length win in the Bluegrass again at Keeneland. The horse loves to run in Kentucky and has won at CD. Third race off a layoff is a time-honored betting angle. He’s a proven closer (3 for 6 lifetime), but needs to show more raw speed. I believe one or two horses in this race are going to far outrun their Past Performances. I think Brody’s Cause will be one of them. (I’m sensing Mo Tom could be the other.) My prime win bet and key for exactas, tri’s and supers.

Danzing Candy:Train your eyes on this horse in PP20 as the gates open; he’s going for the lead. Fast frontrunner backed up in the slop in Santa Anita Derby and finished fourth, thirteen lengths behind Exaggerator and seven behind Mor Spirit. Beat (wired, in fact) both of those horses two back in San Felipe on same track earning 100 (exceptional) speed figure. In a Derby with no rabbits and a lot of late runners, Mike Smith will “boot ‘n’ scoot” at the gate and try to steal the race on the front end. See War Emblem, KYD, 2002. For the betting thrill of a lifetime, bet him to Win and go crazy at the bell. Your Derby Party friends will go crazy with you. I’ll have two bucks on him.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Brody's Cause
Creator
Exaggerator
Nyquist

Good Racing Luck!

[paulxu]

You tossed my horse?

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

That's why they make chocolate and vanilla, Paul.

Mor Spirit is definitely a live horse.

Good Racing Luck!

[DART87]

Gun Runner
Exaggerator
Nyquist
Brodys Cause
Danzig Candy


Have to love the times we live in. I am flying from Paris to Cincinnati right now am posting on the Xhoops board and lost 10 bucks on the first race at Churchill.

Mel, I am betting on Gun Runner being the horse to make a jump in speed. He has improved every race. Hopefully he does it again today!

May you all cash a big one today!

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Dart:

Gun Runner, absolutely. Using him in exactas and tris. Asmussen is a favorite and you have to wish him well these days.

Travel safe with Good Racing Luck!

[paulxu]

Here's a guy on board with me. Hope he didn't just jinx it.

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/15464951/whittling-five-contenders

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Stirring rendition of Our National Anthem by Lady Antediluvian.

[Xville]

Nyquist to win with creator, exaggerator and mo tom

[paulxu]

My horse is still at the bar.

[xu82]

My horse is still at the bar.

I thought it was just the jockeys that had drinking problems! This is enlightening.

[Xville]

Nyquist to win with creator, exaggerator and mo tom

Well nuts..two out of three isn't going to get the job done. Nyquist should win the Preakness, but the Belmont may be an issue if a lot of these deep closers enter.

[LutherRackleyRulez]

DRF: Nyquist stays Pefect with Kentucky Derby Win....



http://www.drf.com/news/nyquist-stays-perfect-kentucky-derby-victory

[THRILLHOUSE]

I got the trifecta, but since it was the 3 horses w/ the best odds, not huge winnings. But I'll take it.

[Mel Cooley XU'81]

Likewise, Thrill.

Good Racing Luck the rest of the summer, everybody!

[XU 87]

I was just reading about the death of Alydar yesterday. To some of you who know horse racing, was it an accident or was he murdered for the insurance money?

[chico]

I was just reading about the death of Alydar yesterday. To some of you who know horse racing, was it an accident or was he murdered for the insurance money?

I think it was accidental. Too many people involved and too much money for someone close not to talk. Calumet was in trouble financially but Alydar was making a pretty good amount in stud fees at the time, and his offspring were fairly successful (moreso than Affirmed, actually).

Speaking of Alydar, there's a great book about his rivalry with Affirmed, "Duel for the Triple Crown." I highly recommend it.

[XU 87]

I think it was accidental. Too many people involved and too much money for someone close not to talk. Calumet was in trouble financially but Alydar was making a pretty good amount in stud fees at the time, and his offspring were fairly successful (moreso than Affirmed, actually).

Speaking of Alydar, there's a great book about his rivalry with Affirmed, "Duel for the Triple Crown." I highly recommend it.

I also think it was accidental, but there is an argument to ne made that he was worth more dead than alive. I think he was insured for around $36 million.

[GoMuskies]

I had Nyquist and the exacta, and I put Nyquist on top by itself in all my "lottery ticket" bets (Superfecta/Super High-5). Got pretty close, but I didn't have Gun Runner in any of the exotics, so those were obviously losers.

I bet on the whole Churchill card (other than the last two after the Derby)....and I won $6.90. That's on about $500 worth of bets, so it was a cool 1.4% return. I'm rich!

[Emp]

I was just reading about the death of Alydar yesterday. To some of you who know horse racing, was it an accident or was he murdered for the insurance money?

Well this thread has jumped the shark........ but this question provoked me to google, and I got to this article. I confess to never have heard of this case.

http://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/the-killing-of-alydar/

There is some prosecutorial overcharging and the case is thin, but the analysis of the bolts surely is important. The theory of how the horse died is total bunk, and I agree with the judge's analysis and decision not to enhance the penalty.

Every town and every profession has wild stories, and the Calumet Farms story is a doozy, even without the Alydar bits.