Upset Alert

[nasdadjr]

Thought it would be fun to put up what some people think legitimate upsets are for the 2nd round. Try and make it minimum 5-12 match ups or worse. I think Hawaii and Iona have legitimate chances to advance. Who do you guys like

[X-band '01]

It's too early to pick 2nd round upsets. But I will settle for 1st-round upsets as they are officially called once again.

#KnowsALotButNotAll

[bobbiemcgee]

I like SFA over WVU. Think they will handle the press just fine. Problem will be defending, but I think they can outscore WVU.

[X-band '01]

As for upsets I'd pick out of the gate:

5/12 - South Dakota State over Maryland
4/13 - Iona over Iowa State
3/14 - None
2/15 - None
1/16 - None

[XUFan09]

It's the "first round" again, and the play-in games are now called play-in games or something similar to that. I'm glad they changed that.

And I wouldn't exclude 6-11 matchups as potential upsets. That's still a ranked team losing to a bubble team.

[muskiefan82]

Nothing jumps out this year although I would love to see UNC-Wilmington beat Duke. Fresno St. - Utah and Iona - Iowa St. are interesting. I think Arizona has a tough one if they get Wichita State.

[muethibp]

The First Four is happening before Thursday. Thursday and Friday is the first round. Then second round, then sweet 16, then elite 8, then final four.

For this year at least.

And we're also back to using regional names. If we could just ditch the pods and move the Sunday games off of the awful late times they're in now, we'd be back to how the good tournament used to be before they started screwing with it.

[X-band '01]

Nothing jumps out this year although I would love to see UNC-Wilmington beat Duke. Fresno St. - Utah and Iona - Iowa St. are interesting. I think Arizona has a tough one if they get Wichita State.

I'm not surprised nothing jumps out given the carnage that took place in most of the 1-bid leagues. There were fifteen teams that were locked into the NIT because they won the regular season but failed to win their conference tournaments. Stony Brook has the potential to pull off a 1st-round upset with their inside-outside duo of Warney and Purifoy, but they got a bad draw with Kentucky in the first round.

[X-band '01]

They switched back to the East/South/Midwest/West regional names back in 2007, I think. The women's tournament still uses the city names for regionals for some reason (after all, who doesn't love the Sioux Falls regional).

[powerofX]

I like SFA over WVU. Think they will handle the press just fine. Problem will be defending, but I think they can outscore WVU.
I was watching sfa in their championship game and sent a text to my brother saying they'd be my upset pick...bracket unseen. Then I worried we would be the three vs them. Whew. I'd love to be right about them.

[nasdadjr]

It's too early to pick 2nd round upsets. But I will settle for 1st-round upsets as they are officially called once again.

#KnowsALotButNotAll

Really? I had no idea they switched it back.

[nasdadjr]

I also think Buffalo has a legit chance to win. I think with 4 minutes to go that will be a one possession game and anything can happen in that senario

[XUFan09]

Really? I had no idea they switched it back.

Yeah, and thankfully. The "second round" designation that they were using was stupid and confusing.

[THRILLHOUSE]

It's the "first round" again, and the play-in games are now called play-in games or something similar to that. I'm glad they changed that.

And I wouldn't exclude 6-11 matchups as potential upsets. That's still a ranked team losing to a bubble team.

Those 6/11 games are some of the hardest to call in the first round, especially if we get an Arizona-Wichita game.

[nasdadjr]

Those 6/11 games are some of the hardest to call in the first round, especially if we get an Arizona-Wichita game.

The last 6 years those games are dead even 12 wins 12 losses for both seeds. Definitely the hardest to pick

[xukeith]

FYI,

Weber St. is the most favorite of all 4 15 seeds to win:

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2016/en/whopickedwhom

[nasdadjr]

This year I see a lot of six seed wins though. I think though a lot of six seeds can and will beat 3 seeds though. Notre dame is a real scary offense even if they couldn't guard me and got a great match up vs WV, Arizona is my dark horse elite 8 team, I think Texas is a year away still and we all know how hot seton hall is.

[X-band '01]

FYI,

Weber St. is the most favorite of all 4 15 seeds to win:

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2016/en/whopickedwhom

Funny when you also consider that Weber State was the lowest-rated 15 seed according to the NCAA's master seed list.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I think Texas is a year away still

now that Cam Ridley is back, Texas will have 5 seniors playing significant minutes. So they are set up better for this season than they are next year. Plus their best playmaker, Isaiah Taylor (a junior), will likely enter the draft after this season.

[Muskie34]

As for upsets I'd pick out of the gate:

5/12 - South Dakota State over Maryland
4/13 - Iona over Iowa State
3/14 - None
2/15 - None
1/16 - None

I have those two upsets, as well as, Chattanooga ruining the IU/UK match-up...

[Masterofreality]

Syracuse (10) over VD (7) :medicated:

I'll tell you another one though- Chattanooga (12) over Indiana (Creaned)

Finally, I think ANY Big 10 team is ripe to be "upset"

[nasdadjr]

now that Cam Ridley is back, Texas will have 5 seniors playing significant minutes. So they are set up better for this season than they are next year. Plus their best playmaker, Isaiah Taylor (a junior), will likely enter the draft after this season.

I'm not disagreeing at all with you I know they are a veteran team but allow me to clarify my statement. I think they are a year away with Shaka getting his system in place and his guys used to his system

[nasdadjr]

Syracuse (10) over VD (7) :medicated:

I'll tell you another one though- Chattanooga (12) over Indiana (Creaned)

Finally, I think ANY Big 10 team is ripe to be "upset"

Yeah. I'm not a big 10 fan this year

[D-West & PO-Z]

I like SFA over WVU. Think they will handle the press just fine. Problem will be defending, but I think they can outscore WVU.

Same I'm taking SFA. Think I might take Yale too thought not confidently. Wichita over Zona. Iona over Iowa St. ARLR over Purdue maybe? Those are all my potential upsets. Not sure yet.

[UCGRAD4X]

FYI,

Weber St. is the most favorite of all 4 15 seeds to win:

http://games.espn.go.com/tournament-challenge-bracket/2016/en/whopickedwhom

Somebody (0.1%) has them going to the final four.

Yeah, I remember the days - picking X for the FF just because, hey, whose stopping you...and not for any other real reason.

As opposed to now, because....F**K YEAH!

[THRILLHOUSE]

I'm not disagreeing at all with you I know they are a veteran team but allow me to clarify my statement. I think they are a year away with Shaka getting his system in place and his guys used to his system

Yeah, Shaka has a good class coming in next year, and could still get Jarrett Allen (McD All American Center). They are just gonna be extremely young next season, so I'd say they are 2 years away from truly being a top team.

And speaking of the West region, I have no idea who to pick out of this region. Feel confident about Kansas in the South and Michigan State in the Midwest, and of course going X in the East. But have no clue about the West.

[MarvAlbert]

Seems like more upset happen on Thursday than on Friday, so because of that, I'll take UNC-Wilmington over Duke, Iona over Iowa State, Yale over Baylor and Chattanooga over Indiana.

[THRILLHOUSE]

I've got Hawaii over Cal and Iona over Iowa State. Been going back and forth on the WVU-SFA, Purdue-Little Rock and Hall-Gonzaga games.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Yeah, Shaka has a good class coming in next year, and could still get Jarrett Allen (McD All American Center). They are just gonna be extremely young next season, so I'd say they are 2 years away from truly being a top team.

And speaking of the West region, I have no idea who to pick out of this region. Feel confident about Kansas in the South and Michigan State in the Midwest, and of course going X in the East. But have no clue about the West.

I have same as you in all regions. Going OU in West.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I've got Hawaii over Cal and Iona over Iowa State. Been going back and forth on the WVU-SFA, Purdue-Little Rock and Hall-Gonzaga games.

If Seton Hall loses to Gonzaga I will be highly disappointed.

And MOR's head might explode!

[X-band '01]

Right now, the biggest upset would be the Vegas 16 being able to field 16 teams for their newly minted tournament that is scheduled to be played from March 26 through 30. They could be down to either the Vegas 8 or, better yet, just canceling the event completely. Social media is having a field day with this akin to yesterday's leaked NCAA bracket.

Even the CIT still has 6 open spots for their tournament; I suspect they're holding spots open for teams that won't be able to play in Vegas.

[D-West & PO-Z]

Right now, the biggest upset would be the Vegas 16 being able to field 16 teams for their newly minted tournament that is scheduled to be played from March 26 through 30. They could be down to either the Vegas 8 or, better yet, just canceling the event completely. Social media is having a field day with this akin to yesterday's leaked NCAA bracket.

Even the CIT still has 6 open spots for their tournament; I suspect they're holding spots open for teams that won't be able to play in Vegas.

If they push it up to this week I'll get my Vegas group together and we will field a team. Can't be much worse than whoever they get can we?

[sirthought]

Cincinnati over St. Joseph's in the first round.
UC's size and athleticism will squeak it out.

Arizona beats Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen.
Kind of a toss up, but those bigs at Arizona might do well in that game.

[muskiefan82]

Right now, the biggest upset would be the Vegas 16 being able to field 16 teams for their newly minted tournament that is scheduled to be played from March 26 through 30. They could be down to either the Vegas 8 or, better yet, just canceling the event completely. Social media is having a field day with this akin to yesterday's leaked NCAA bracket.

Even the CIT still has 6 open spots for their tournament; I suspect they're holding spots open for teams that won't be able to play in Vegas.

If they wait long enough, can the losers from the other tournaments play in this?

[bobbiemcgee]

Cincinnati over St. Joseph's in the first round.
UC's size and athleticism will squeak it out.

Arizona beats Villanova in the Sweet Sixteen.
Kind of a toss up, but those bigs at Arizona might do well in that game.

I get all the AZ games out here while you guys are snoozing. Not impressed at all. 'Nova should roll.

[D-West & PO-Z]

I get all the AZ games out here while you guys are snoozing. Not impressed at all. 'Nova should roll.

Zona going out first rd in my bracket.

[Masterofreality]

If Seton Hall loses to Gonzaga I will be highly disappointed.

And MOR's head might explode!

Might...but no more than when Providence lost to VD last year..that took all brain matter away.

[BandAid]

Villanova, because Villanova

[XUFan09]

I've got Hawaii over Cal and Iona over Iowa State. Been going back and forth on the WVU-SFA, Purdue-Little Rock and Hall-Gonzaga games.
I remember some writer describing Hawaii as a top 25 team at home and a top 100 team on the road, probably because of the obvious travel issues in both directions. I can't see them beating a Cal team with two lottery picks.

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[GIMMFD]

This thread gives me major anxiety. I think I'm just thinking negatively of all the things that could go wrong now.

[nasdadjr]

Right now, the biggest upset would be the Vegas 16 being able to field 16 teams for their newly minted tournament that is scheduled to be played from March 26 through 30. They could be down to either the Vegas 8 or, better yet, just canceling the event completely. Social media is having a field day with this akin to yesterday's leaked NCAA bracket.

Even the CIT still has 6 open spots for their tournament; I suspect they're holding spots open for teams that won't be able to play in Vegas.

Question? With the news that LSU is not accepting any tournament invites does anyone think they didn't get an NIT invite? With 15 1 seeds losing and getting automatic invites plus a lot of teams that were so close to getting in the dance I could conceivably see LSU only getting a CIT invite. Thoughts?

[nasdadjr]

Seems like more upset happen on Thursday than on Friday, so because of that, I'll take UNC-Wilmington over Duke, Iona over Iowa State, Yale over Baylor and Chattanooga over Indiana.

Not gonna lie I can see Yale beating Baylor. Every year Baylor is good but don't take the little teams seriously

[XUFan09]

Question? With the news that LSU is not accepting any tournament invites does anyone think they didn't get an NIT invite? With 15 1 seeds losing and getting automatic invites plus a lot of teams that were so close to getting in the dance I could conceivably see LSU only getting a CIT invite. Thoughts?
This did seem to be an unusual year for conference tournament 1 seeds, so maybe. I hadn't looked at the NIT bubble watch stuff in awhile.

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[nasdadjr]

Villanova, because Villanova

Iowa state cause well... Iowa state haha

[Nigel Tufnel]

Question? With the news that LSU is not accepting any tournament invites does anyone think they didn't get an NIT invite? With 15 1 seeds losing and getting automatic invites plus a lot of teams that were so close to getting in the dance I could conceivably see LSU only getting a CIT invite. Thoughts?

I'm guessing Simmons' people got in his ear and said, "you aren't jeopardizing your professional career for the NIT. You tell Coach you are done."

[sirthought]

I know they spun it like it was an LSU decision, but there's nothing out there confirming they were invited. My guess is that at large slots were targeted at programs more firmly up against the bubble. But this was likely not a great situation for them to play the NIT with injuries and a main player who has zero chance of wanting to stay there further. He did his time and got the headlines. Everyone move on.

[ArizonaXUGrad]

NIT I am not so sure about, but there have been players on CIT teams that didn't play in the tournament. I can't remember, but it's not new ground. I am surprised they didn't accept a tourney invite, but it must be from not getting an NIT invite. I think even the NIT has auto-bids.


I know they spun it like it was an LSU decision, but there's nothing out there confirming they were invited. My guess is that at large slots were targeted at programs more firmly up against the bubble. But this was likely not a great situation for them to play the NIT with injuries and a main player who has zero chance of wanting to stay there further. He did his time and got the headlines. Everyone move on.

[sirthought]

NIT I am not so sure about, but there have been players on CIT teams that didn't play in the tournament. I can't remember, but it's not new ground. I am surprised they didn't accept a tourney invite, but it must be from not getting an NIT invite. I think even the NIT has auto-bids.

Yeah, that's why I don't think they were invited.

[XUGRAD80]

The NIT officials said that they had received consideration for a spot, up until they (LSU) made it known that they were not going to any tourney. According to the NIT people they were made aware of this sometime in the afternoon. They did not say if they would have received a bid or not.

[Nigel Tufnel]

You guys think the NIT wouldn't have wanted to showcase the most highly touted pro prospect in college basketball? That's hard to fathom. NIT would have found a spot for Simmons. Don't you think? Hell, the NCAA took Cuse and Boeheim when they shouldn't have been in. Maybe I'm too cynical. I always look at the $$$. That's a lot of money for them to lose on the not so controversial (because nobody really even cares) decision to have lsu in the field.

[D-West & PO-Z]

You guys think the NIT wouldn't have wanted to showcase the most highly touted pro prospect in college basketball? That's hard to fathom. NIT would have found a spot for Simmons. Don't you think? Hell, the NCAA took Cuse and Boeheim when they shouldn't have been in. Maybe I'm too cynical. I always look at the $$$. That's a lot of money for them to lose on the not so controversial (because nobody really even cares) decision to have lsu in the field.

Yeah I tend to agree. They would have found a spot for LSU.

[X-band '01]

It's been a while since teams have turned down the NIT; I don't think that's been allowed since the NCAA took that tournament over.

With only 17 teams to choose from, I'm just going to believe that LSU didn't merit an NIT selection. I'm sure they wanted to ignore the phone calls that had "CBI Gazelle Group" and "Vegas 16" on the caller ID. The CIT doesn't invite major programs (which is why Fordham got an invite).

[nasdadjr]

You guys think the NIT wouldn't have wanted to showcase the most highly touted pro prospect in college basketball? That's hard to fathom. NIT would have found a spot for Simmons. Don't you think? Hell, the NCAA took Cuse and Boeheim when they shouldn't have been in. Maybe I'm too cynical. I always look at the $$$. That's a lot of money for them to lose on the not so controversial (because nobody really even cares) decision to have lsu in the field.

I'm not disagreeing with you of course they should want Simmons. But for basically Simmons to decide if his team plays based on whether he decides he wants to play or not is the ultimate in selfish. I don't know lsu well but I'm sure there are players on that team that would love to play the NIT. Do you think LSU is taking the blame for this to keep animosity and backlash from falling on Simmons for what would be viewed as the ultimate in selfish decisions and ending their seniors season early?

[American X]

WSJ: The Most Likely First-Round Upsets (http://www.wsj.com/articles/march-madness-the-most-likely-first-round-upsets-1458053332)

A statistical model forecasts the double-digit seeds with the best shots to win: Wichita State, Fresno State and Michigan

[XUMIOH12]

WSJ: The Most Likely First-Round Upsets (http://www.wsj.com/articles/march-madness-the-most-likely-first-round-upsets-1458053332)

A statistical model forecasts the double-digit seeds with the best shots to win: Wichita State, Fresno State and Michigan

i like that Fresno team, they have some pretty good players

[THRILLHOUSE]

Luke Winn on potential upset picks - http://www.si.com/college-basketball/2016/03/16/ncaa-tournament-sleeper-upset-cinderella-picks-fgcu-wichita-uni

[nasdadjr]

Officially have northern Iowa in the sweet 16. Upset alert!!

[GoMuskies]

Officially have northern Iowa in the sweet 16. Upset alert!!

In light of your comments about Wichita State, and the fact that UNI finished 5 games behind the Shockers in their league, I find this......surprising.

[XUFan09]

In light of your comments about Wichita State, and the fact that UNI finished 5 games behind the Shockers in their league, I find this......surprising.
Well, I still don't think he's adjusted to Wichita State actually making the field, considering his strong assertions that they wouldn't.


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[nasdadjr]

In light of your comments about Wichita State, and the fact that UNI finished 5 games behind the Shockers in their league, I find this......surprising.

Oh trust me they shouldn't be in the field over Monmouth because their resume wasn't as good. 17 true road wins should never be overlooked. That being said I was shocked when I picked it too but it just worked out that way.